politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, p

MarqueeMark said:

JonWC said:

camel said:

Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.

Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.

I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement.
Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:

For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s,
For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s,
For students: no debt, plus grants

From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.

It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.

The issue in PS&D is where the 6.731 UKIP vote heads. They still have a candidate, but I doubt they will break 4 figures this time. I suspect many will have come from Labour - will they return, go Tory or stay home? Its a tricky seat to hold. That said, the Conservative mutual aid that was coming up from Plymouth in 2015 to tip LibDem seats blue can stay close to home this time - indeed they can be the recipient of aid themselves from a surrounding sea of blue.

Electoral Calculus shows Tory 57% chance, Labour 43% chance.
The constituency has an unusually large cohort of 16-24 year olds.

Odds right now are 11/2 Labour.

It's screaming value.

AlastairMeeks said:

Jeremy Corbyn is probably less dangerous than car crash Brexit because he's more transient.

We might get both

Tories now entirely dependent on people not voting. Sad.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.

The audience weighting is more likely to be based on the last GE, I'd have thought, so not much more than a third. Fewer, if undecided/previous non-voters including never-voted under-20s are factored into the mix. That there were 25-30% of definite Tories in that audience is entirely believable from the show.

IanB2 said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

weather forecast 8th June looking like rain

can the students be bothered ?

Maybe not so good for the Tories. Wont the zimmer frames seize up?

they posted their votes 2 weeks ago

Unbelievably I just got a postal vote in France. My name on the letter box isn't even readable. French ingenuity.

The wonders of what in our Royal Mail was always called the 'blind duty'. They have the whole UK electoral register on disk and various other resources to direct badly addressed mail. All done free of charge. At some point I expect the now private company will wonder why it bothers.

I know of eight people in Spain who are expecting postal votes, apparently all posted on 19th. Two of the households have received theirs two havenot mine included.

MaxPB said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

Roger said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

SouthamObserver said:

SouthamObserver said:

YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.

On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.

I hope you're right.

I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.

Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?

There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.

With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.

I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.

Every thinking person now agrees that Brexit will be a disaster. So by the same token you xenophobes who can't claim the ignorance of the old and uneducated will never be forgiven

I'm a xenophobe, am I?

Riiight. Thanks for clearing that up, Roger.

You were desperate to leave the EU on a visceral level. I can't envisage such passion if you were merely looking at the pros and cons of trade. So yes. Probably.

You realise he's married to a foreigner, right?

That makes it worse!

GeoffM said:

Clown_Car_HQ said:

alex. said:

EPG said:

Cyclefree said:

I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.

How is this redistributive?

Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.

And those on benefits are going to be no better off.

Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.

The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.

Have a good day all.

It seemed from the debates that food banks and poverty are now seen as relevant to character.

Do they have food banks in Venezuela?

Venezuela is a catastrophic human tragedy. Why does it get so little coverage in the news?

Discussing Venezuela would highlight Corbyn's own policies here and the harder-Left of the BBC won't risk that.

Given that the collapse of the oil price is the single biggest factor, maybe Sturgeon is a better comparator, or more accurately Salmond had he actually won the vote?

camel said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.

Blues sit on their hands. They're quiet in pubs. They're shy. Then they troop down to the polling stations and silently place a cross next to the blue candidate.

The noise-to-vote ratio from Corbynistas is massive.

From Tories, it is silent running. Why pick a fight with somebody who will accuse you personally of supporting the grossest injustices of society? The way Apocalypse got abused on here yesterday was instructive - when she was only a maybe. Truth is, most people don't consider their vote as a part of charitable giving. It is to look after number one, get the type of Government that is going to best deliver for you.

Which, let's face it, is what Labour has done to the youth vote. Buy them, with promises it will find very difficult to deliver once the 1% who pay 27% of income tax decide to depart the reach of HMRC. And companies take their investment and their jobs to a country that will undercut our Corporation Tax rates. At which point, the rest of us will have to make up the shortfall - or the commitments turn into aspirations, nothing happens. Sorry kids, but that dream you have been sold by Labour, of lots of free beer tokens and your own crash pad - they will come to nothing.

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

Roger said:

Alanbrooke said:

weather forecast 8th June looking like rain

can the students be bothered ?

Maybe not so good for the Tories. Wont the zimmer frames seize up?

they posted their votes 2 weeks ago

Unbelievably I just got a postal vote in France. My name on the letter box isn't even readable. French ingenuity.

The wonders of what in our Royal Mail was always called the 'blind duty'. They have the whole UK electoral register on disk and various other resources to direct badly addressed mail. All done free of charge. At some point I expect the now private company will wonder why it bothers.

I know of eight people in Spain who are expecting postal votes, apparently all posted on 19th. Two of the households have received theirs two havenot mine included.

Service quality on inward foreign on the Spanish side was never renowned for its excellence.

If you want the best chance of getting the votes back in time, post it in a big Spanish city with direct airline connection to the UK (scheduled, not cheapo, as Ryanair etc don't carry mail). That way the letter will be routed direct to the airport mail unit and you won't have to wait a week while it travels slowly through Spain. The UK inward foreign through Mount Pleasant should take at most a couple of days.

Mr. Quidder, you're probably right.

Ahem, I forgot, but today the third episode (last of the initial run) of Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger came out. The Chinese serial is really rather fun, fast, action-packed and full of plot twists. Do check it out. The protagonist has a good heart but 'a temper like a dragon in a volcano':
https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B0725XSTK7

Casino_Royale said:

not_on_fire said:

SimonStClare said:

Morning all.

Interesting podcast - after listening to Prof Curtis’ illuminations on his recent YouGov poll, I've decided not to place any bets on a hung parliament.

Chris Curtis != Prof John Curtice

Is he? Different guy, or just a typo?

Different guy.

Chris Curtis works for YouGov.

MarqueeMark said:

camel said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.

Blues sit on their hands. They're quiet in pubs. They're shy. Then they troop down to the polling stations and silently place a cross next to the blue candidate.

The noise-to-vote ratio from Corbynistas is massive.

From Tories, it is silent running. Why pick a fight with somebody who will accuse you personally of supporting the grossest injustices of society? The way Apocalypse got abused on here yesterday was instructive - when she was only a maybe. Truth is, most people don't consider their vote as a part of charitable giving. It is to look after number one, get the type of Government that is going to best deliver for you.

Which, let's face it, is what Labour has done to the youth vote. Buy them, with promises it will find very difficult to deliver once the 1% who pay 27% of income tax decide to depart the reach of HMRC. And companies take their investment and their jobs to a country that will undercut our Corporation Tax rates. At which point, the rest of us will have to make up the shortfall - or the commitments turn into aspirations, nothing happens. Sorry kids, but that dream you have been sold by Labour, of lots of free beer tokens and your own crash pad - they will come to nothing.

On the former, I'll quote a fb post from a Corbyn supporter who has never voted before:

"I know shit about politics but May is a c***, Corbyn is a ledge.

If you vote Tory you're a c***, if you vote labour you're a ledge.

(People actually consider voting Tory these days? Are you high?)"

One wonders why Tories just stay silent. I'm 99% sure that he won't vote either.

Brexit = a calamity

Brexiteers = idiots

TOPPING said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

What the hell have we done to deserve this?

Voted for Brexit.

Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump

Hey ho...

It is exceedingly difficult not to agree. And now erstwhile Leavers are cacking themselves.

We have to take our pleasures where we find them.

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

Tribalism prevents too many people on here from seeing the wood for the trees. On betfair a Conservative majority is 1.24.

I can't ever remember a more certain 1/4 shot.

Macron at the exit poll (r1) I think

Macron was a miles better bet. He was home and dry.

The tories have a wiff of Clinton about them. 1.24? Yeah, it's might a tiny bit long, but it's not wildly long. I'd lay them below 1.20 personally

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question.

How has it come to this ?

This is excruciating

https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/870171880308830209

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

Tribalism prevents too many people on here from seeing the wood for the trees. On betfair a Conservative majority is 1.24.

I can't ever remember a more certain 1/4 shot.

Macron at the exit poll (r1) I think

I didn't follow that.

At times this place resembles a rabid talksport phone in, rationality goes out of the window. May, as dull as she is, will win comfortably because old people with experience of life vote and young ideologues don't.

I've put my money where my mouth is, I have no interest in who wins beyond personal financial gain.

TOPPING said:

Scott_P said:

SouthamObserver said:

What the hell have we done to deserve this?

Voted for Brexit.

Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump

Hey ho...

It is exceedingly difficult not to agree. And now erstwhile Leavers are cacking themselves.

Yep - it won't happen this time, but come 21/22 we'll be looking at an incoming, left-wing Labour government.

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/870166173429706752

That really is an extremely poor graph, the age ranges vary so much that is extremely misleading at a glance.

MarqueeMark said:

camel said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.

Blues sit on their hands. They're quiet in pubs. They're shy. Then they troop down to the polling stations and silently place a cross next to the blue candidate.

The noise-to-vote ratio from Corbynistas is massive.

From Tories, it is silent running. Why pick a fight with somebody who will accuse you personally of supporting the grossest injustices of society? The way Apocalypse got abused on here yesterday was instructive - when she was only a maybe. Truth is, most people don't consider their vote as a part of charitable giving. It is to look after number one, get the type of Government that is going to best deliver for you.

Which, let's face it, is what Labour has done to the youth vote. Buy them, with promises it will find very difficult to deliver once the 1% who pay 27% of income tax decide to depart the reach of HMRC. And companies take their investment and their jobs to a country that will undercut our Corporation Tax rates. At which point, the rest of us will have to make up the shortfall - or the commitments turn into aspirations, nothing happens. Sorry kids, but that dream you have been sold by Labour, of lots of free beer tokens and your own crash pad - they will come to nothing.

It worked with the Brexit vote, of course.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/870175685234524160

She must have watched? If not live, than later. I mean, anyone would, surely?

MarqueeMark said:

camel said:

MarqueeMark said:

JonWC said:

camel said:

Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.

Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.

I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement.
Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:

For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s,
For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s,
For students: no debt, plus grants

From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.

It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.

The issue in PS&D is where the 6.731 UKIP vote heads. They still have a candidate, but I doubt they will break 4 figures this time. I suspect many will have come from Labour - will they return, go Tory or stay home? Its a tricky seat to hold. That said, the Conservative mutual aid that was coming up from Plymouth in 2015 to tip LibDem seats blue can stay close to home this time - indeed they can be the recipient of aid themselves from a surrounding sea of blue.

Electoral Calculus shows Tory 57% chance, Labour 43% chance.
The constituency has an unusually large cohort of 16-24 year olds.

Odds right now are 11/2 Labour.

It's screaming value.

Well, all those 16 and 17 year olds can't vote!

I couldn't find any 18-24 stats. Unless there was a very marked baby boom in 2000/2001 I think 16-24s it's a fair indicator of 18-24s.

There have been plenty of dud Conservative campaigns down the decades, in which squabbles spilled over in the final weeks. Yet even accounting for the eternal tendency of Tories to moan, this latest effort from the Conservative Party ranks as possibly their worst general election campaign since before the war. By which I mean the First World War.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/after-this-mess-mrs-may-needs-a-relaunch-fd0prkx6p

The article is scathing, but the comments under it are not encouraging for Tezza

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

murali_s said:

Roger said:

Boris on radio 5! The idea that he could have been PM...Jesus! I'd prefer Abbott!

Boris is a disingenuous lying moron. People like him need to be kicked out of politics.

Would we have many left if those criteria were applied?

Let's wipe the slate clean and start again I say.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Ken Clarke. We need a serious and experienced PM now.

I think Jeremy Hunt might be the dark horse.

Against a black background?

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Thin gruel available...Hammond would be my choice if Dave can't come back.

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question.

That is a seriously impressive performance by Mrs May.

Not directly comparable because the question then included Nick Clegg - and we know why Tim Farron isn't included anymore.....

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/7rj2tjjm1c/YG-Archives-Pol-Trackers-Leaders-Perceptions-050515.pdf

May has dropped from an average of ±48 before the GE was called to 43 in that one poll (45, 46 & 49 in the previous 3) - while Corbyn has increased from ±15 to 30 - so the narrowing has been primarily growth by Corbyn rather than decline by May.

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Ken Clarke. We need a serious and experienced PM now.

I think Jeremy Hunt might be the dark horse.

No chance for Gove?

Gove is hated by the fans of Boris, he's distrusted/hated by the Cameroon wing.

Not going to happen in those circumstances.

Any polls due today?

Really sceptical about YG. After the two previous incidents more caution should be attached to their polling. That other pollsters seem to swing in that direction says everything.

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Ken Clarke. We need a serious and experienced PM now.

I think Jeremy Hunt might be the dark horse.

Against a black background?

Ken Clarke (sadly) too old. Once you've written your memoirs, it's a bit too late...

Jeremy Hunt definitely. The guy is bullet-proof after running the NHS, a very slick operator, business trusts him, already a hate figure to the left, and he has already positioned himself with comments about how FoM restrictions will damage the NHS (thus firing a warning shot over his own PM ahead of negotiations).

I think he's a clever, ruthless and a brilliant politician. Total bastard basically. Reminds me of Peter Lilley. But I'd actually have confidence if *he* were in charge of negotiating Brexit because it would be business-first...

Mr. Eagles, I agree. Hunt or Rudd would be favourites. I don't personally rate either of them, but with Osborne's horrendous miscalculation, the field is clear for them.

Ishmael_Z said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question.

That is a seriously impressive performance by Mrs May.

And no one has suggested there is a shy about choosing best PM demographic. Feckity feckity feck (and this remains a feckity feckity feck situation even if Con maj 120 in the event).

IRA attack video just gone past 5m mark.

Even if she gets a 100+ maj we need her out. 5 more years of this would be intolerable. Not to mention a Blair like Lab victory next time. Regardless of leader.

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Ken Clarke. We need a serious and experienced PM now.

I think Jeremy Hunt might be the dark horse.

No chance for Gove?

Gove is hated by the fans of Boris, he's distrusted/hated by the Cameroon wing.

Not going to happen in those circumstances.

After yesterday's performance I think Rudd will get a look in, not sure about Hunt myself, a Tory PM coming from Health sounds like a disaster waiting to happen should any scandals be uncovered in the NHS dating back to his time in charge.

After the NIC changes I don't rate Hammond either. Are there any free market liberals left in the party?

MarqueeMark said:

Which, let's face it, is what Labour has done to the youth vote. Buy them, with promises it will find very difficult to deliver once the 1% who pay 27% of income tax decide to depart the reach of HMRC. And companies take their investment and their jobs to a country that will undercut our Corporation Tax rates. At which point, the rest of us will have to make up the shortfall - or the commitments turn into aspirations, nothing happens. Sorry kids, but that dream you have been sold by Labour, of lots of free beer tokens and your own crash pad - they will come to nothing.

Now that the lies of Cameron and Osborne about the consequences of voting for Leave have been shown to be lies its harder to convince anyone that voting for change would bring disaster.

Cameron and Osborne also promised the oldies that they could have triple lock pensions, endless freebies and subsidised house prices.

So why wouldn't the young vote for free beer tokens and their own crash pad ? They've little to lose and much more to gain and the establishment has had its fear tactics exposed as being groundless.

The fact that May is start to imitate Gordon Brown levels of awkwardness is worrying and hilarious in equal measures.

Morris_Dancer said:

I was wondering: suppose May wins well (call it 60+ majority).

Does the PCP still knife her? If so, when?

I expect they'll just make it clear she should stand down before the next election.

bookseller said:

IanB2 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MaxPB said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question

If May gets a majority under 20 who replaces her as leader and PM?

Ken Clarke. We need a serious and experienced PM now.

I think Jeremy Hunt might be the dark horse.

Against a black background?

Ken Clarke (sadly) too old. Once you've written your memoirs, it's a bit too late...

Jeremy Hunt definitely. The guy is bullet-proof after running the NHS, a very slick operator, business trusts him, already a hate figure to the left, and he has already positioned himself with comments about how FoM restrictions will damage the NHS (thus firing a warning shot over his own PM ahead of negotiations).

I think he's a clever, ruthless and a brilliant politician. Total bastard basically. Reminds me of Peter Lilley. But I'd actually have confidence if *he* were in charge of negotiating Brexit because it would be business-first...

If by 'having confidence' you effectively mean capitulating to the EU on FoM and payments in order to stay in the single market then that is no negotiations either effectively as well as infuriating the Tory base. As Amber Rudd has said there will still be visas for areas like the NHS and sectors of the economy with skills shortages but free movement will be controlled

TheScreamingEagles said:

The_Apocalypse said:

Any polls due today?

Really sceptical about YG. After the two previous incidents more caution should be attached to their polling. That other pollsters seem to swing in that direction says everything.

There's a panelbase out later today.

Looks like from yesterday it'll show a reduced lead, by how much is the question.

MaxPB said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I was wondering: suppose May wins well (call it 60+ majority).

Does the PCP still knife her? If so, when?

The day after Brexit is complete. One thing is clear, May cannot be allowed to lead the party into another election campaign. She has been spectacularly useless in this one. At least Brown left the campaign up to better politicians, May seems to have farmed it out to Timothy who is clearly a complete numpty.

Yes. The next parliament needs to train up the next Tory leader.

Looks like Juncker got May and her government absolutely right.

Morris_Dancer said:

I was wondering: suppose May wins well (call it 60+ majority).

Does the PCP still knife her? If so, when?

No, she has a mandate and even with no landslide the biggest Tory majority since 1987

Monksfield said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scott_P said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

ICYMI

April 2015, Cameron had a 14% lead over Miliband on the best PM question.

In last night's YouGov poll, May has a 13% lead over Corbyn on the same question.

How has it come to this ?

This is excruciating

https://twitter.com/frasernelson/status/870171880308830209

She's going to be the shortest serving Tory leader since IDS.

That's awful. She's proving pathologically incapable of answering even the simplest questions.. This is your candidate pb T's...

If only the LibDems were being given more media attention.

Jesus, that's pitiful from May.

The_Apocalypse said:

The fact that May is start to imitate Gordon Brown levels of awkwardness is worrying and hilarious in equal measures.

Some wise owl on PB kept on saying she was a pound shop Gordon Brown.

HYUFD said:

Morris_Dancer said:

I was wondering: suppose May wins well (call it 60+ majority).

Does the PCP still knife her? If so, when?

No, she has a mandate and even with no landslide the biggest Tory majority since 1987

Nevertheless her credibility is dented. Even if she comes away with a landslide of the sorts PB'ers were confidently predicting two weeks back, after the glow fades people will conclude that it would have happened whatever, and not ascribe any of it to Mrs May's brilliance on the campaign trail.

another_richard said:

MarqueeMark said:

Which, let's face it, is what Labour has done to the youth vote. Buy them, with promises it will find very difficult to deliver once the 1% who pay 27% of income tax decide to depart the reach of HMRC. And companies take their investment and their jobs to a country that will undercut our Corporation Tax rates. At which point, the rest of us will have to make up the shortfall - or the commitments turn into aspirations, nothing happens. Sorry kids, but that dream you have been sold by Labour, of lots of free beer tokens and your own crash pad - they will come to nothing.

Now that the lies of Cameron and Osborne about the consequences of voting for Leave have been shown to be lies its harder to convince anyone that voting for change would bring disaster.

Cameron and Osborne also promised the oldies that they could have triple lock pensions, endless freebies and subsidised house prices.

So why wouldn't the young vote for free beer tokens and their own crash pad ? They've little to lose and much more to gain and the establishment has had its fear tactics exposed as being groundless.

It wouldn't matter what Corbyn promised if May had an ounce of personality or political acumen.
I know Brexiteers love to blame Cameron and his ideological impurity for everything. But its nonsense. She's against Corbyn ffsl.