Seems like not many people watched the debates even here on PB, and the general view in the papers seems to be that Jezza looked shagged out and the rest would not look out of place in a sixth form common room
Theresa May's judgment has seldom looked sounder than when she decided to stay the heck away from this awful, bent, babyish custard-pie fight.
Anyone who watched it or isn't the Daily Mail would accept it was very interesting and informative and that Mrs May made a serious error of judgement by not showing up. The broadcast media this morning are talking about nothing else.
Big surprise. So the rightleaning DM says it was the right move, and the leftie broadcast media say it was a screw up.... and the news here is ?
....and the news here is that the broadcast media are more influential and to a condiderably larger and more diverse audience than the Daily Mail
Absolutely. I think it'll be terrific if Corbyn makes it - a huge sea change in British politics to adult, redistributive politics delivered without artifice, instead of the ineffective jostling into decline of recent years. (I know him moderately well so am of course biased.)
You can correct me if I'm missing something but the weird thing about this is that the manifesto doesn't actually seem very redistributive. Even the opposite, since it's very kind to the elderly and timid on benefits. It's the exact opposite of New Labour: They gave off a vibe as if they weren't going to redistribute then did, whereas the Corbyn plan seems to be to give off a vibe as if you are going to redistribute then don't.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
Having a poll with the Tories three points ahead is one thing. Translating that into seats using some methodology which has been ridiculed by many on here is another.
Are there any seats they are predicting preposterously pro-Tory? I only looked at two, the one where I live which is plausible and the one where my mum lives which is ridiculously pro-Labour.
(2/2) I don't see how Yougov can resolve this issue without relying over-heavily on the responses of the local 75 people? For example they have the Independent leading in East Devon seat - that can't be because similar demographics in the rest of Devon are leaning Indy, and must be because a randomly high proportion of the East Devon 75 are saying they will vote for her. At the same time, the demographics of surrounding seats is clearly having an undue impact - for example they have Kensington as potentially marginal for the Tories, which can only be because they have 'imported' people from surrounding areas like Hammersmith who are not as Tory as residents of Kensington. Contrarywise, the demographics of Hastings are very different from the surrounding rural Kent seats (many more people on benefits, for example) and Yougov appears to be over-projecting non-Tory voters into that seat.
These two potential errors work in opposite directions - reliance on the 75 increases the randomness and the apparent chances of outsiders (East Devon) - reliance on voters from the surrounding area 'smooths' the politics of an area and reduces the chances of candidates known only in their seat. I really don't see any way that Yougov can resolve this except by trying to 'guess' a crude balance between two different sorts of potential error?
Finally, one element is missing altogether from their model. British GE's are fascinating because the political history and local campaigns have a big local impact. Parties can retain a few voters in a seat because of some freak by-election or issue years back into the past, or the reputation of one of the candidates. YouGov is probably excellent on the demographics but politics is more than that - and local political history will be missing from its model and cannot be derived accurately from a sample of just 75 people.
These are in addition to the well-discussed problems of YouGov's panel being both self-selected and of people who enjoy (or are willing, for 50p a time) to fill in lots of surveys. This is unlikely to reflect the population as a whole, however hard they try to weight the different demographics of their panel.
Excellent analysis.
I think there are real problems in trying to project national demographics into local seats, for many of the reasons you outlined.
By being so prominently different YG is risking some damage to its brand, but I still think the potential upside is greater. Although my judgement remains that their model is flawed in principle, however good their work in practice.
I think its more fundamental than that. As someone said here yesterday, we are all used to lying online, friending people we don't like, liking posts we actually hate, why should opinion polls be any different. Its a way to send a free, no risk, message to the party of your choice, and lying by mouse-click is so much less socially awkward, and so easy, compared to looking an interviewer in the eye and telling them a porkie.
If you were pissed off blue-rinser, you might well tell a few opinion pollsters you were going to vote Labour/LD to give the Tories a kick up the arse, but on the day you are not going to be voting for Corbyn.
I don't think it's a case of lying necessarily. I just think YouGov's online panel is likely to suffer from user fatigue over time as only the most committed can be bothered to refill in the forms every couple of days. So what may be a fairly representative panel at the start, is likely to only feature the political obsessives by the end.
Absolutely. I think it'll be terrific if Corbyn makes it - a huge sea change in British politics to adult, redistributive politics delivered without artifice, instead of the ineffective jostling into decline of recent years. (I know him moderately well so am of course biased.)
You can correct me if I'm missing something but the weird thing about this is that the manifesto doesn't actually seem very redistributive. Even the opposite, since it's very kind to the elderly and timid on benefits. It's the exact opposite of New Labour: They gave off a vibe as if they weren't going to redistribute then did, whereas the Corbyn plan seems to be to give off a vibe as if you are going to redistribute then don't.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
What the manifesto says is irrelevant.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
YouGov - and the other pollsters - make money out of consumer research for P&G and Unilever. Political polling is advertising to them.
Absolutely. I think it'll be terrific if Corbyn makes it - a huge sea change in British politics to adult, redistributive politics delivered without artifice, instead of the ineffective jostling into decline of recent years. (I know him moderately well so am of course biased.)
You can correct me if I'm missing something but the weird thing about this is that the manifesto doesn't actually seem very redistributive. Even the opposite, since it's very kind to the elderly and timid on benefits. It's the exact opposite of New Labour: They gave off a vibe as if they weren't going to redistribute then did, whereas the Corbyn plan seems to be to give off a vibe as if you are going to redistribute then don't.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
What the manifesto says is irrelevant.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
I woke up early and posted a way-too-long post about YouGov down below. In summary I think that their panel is probably biased in ways they will struggle to compensate for, and their model whilst clever cannot hope with any constituency-level 'political history'.
I agree completely, and have long felt this to be the case. I think the real pool is quite small as we have seen with a number of members here being VI'd several times in the last couple of weeks, and very succeptible to packing by activists, both actively by creating false profiles, and passively in terms of only activists being bothered to wade through 20 minutes of questions of chocolate bars and soap powder to get to the key questions.
Additionally most surveys are looking to see how one measure varies in relation to another, for example Educational outcome is influenced by family disposable income. In this case it is relatively straightforward to control for one, and observe the other. In politically polling this isnt the case, there is no real control variable, so you are left with trying to be representative of the population as a whole, whilst being unable to measure the variables which actually matter, like "political engagement" whilst simultaneously having a sample which has very strong reasons to misrepresent their views.
@alex. Well you'd hope no newspaper would hire them in the future to do polls if they have messed this one up. Agree that they [polls] probably play too much of a role these days, despite how much we love them on here.
You would think that by now, aided by massively powerful computers and with polling having become a major element of all western democratic elections over several decades, that the ever-evolving methodologies would have reached such a stage of development that only the smallest refinements would now be considered, let alone thought necessary for implementation.
Yet it would seem that we are nowhere near this stage, with the major UK pollsters, possibly the most experienced in the world, fighting tooth and claw over who has the most reliable methodology in place with just one week left before polling day. This is amply demonstrated by arguably the two pre-eminent firms, YouGov and ICM who are currently around 8% apart as regards what they claim is the Tories' lead over Labour. As things currently stand, I can only imagine that within the losing team, heads will roll big time after the result is known. Of course should their predictions converge over the final few days, which I fully expect will be the case and they finish up within 3% - 4% or possibly closer still to correctly forecasting the outcome, then of course both firms will claim to have been right all long and the irritating thing for us PBers and other commentators in general is that none of us will never know who was telling the truth!
That's what really drives herding: people care about potentially losing their jobs far more than they do having the courage of their convictions.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
Yet the election is on a knife edge if you believe YouGov and media coverage.
Neither of whom have the slightest interest in a boring election with a massive lead on one side. No one reads boring polls, and no one watches TV coverage of foregone conclusions... that fact that almost no one watched the debates should tell you all you need to know of what the country things, they think its all over.
Maybe people are not that interested. Where I live there has hardly been any electioneering to be honest, Tory seat which was Labour from 1997 to 2010. I've had a couple of leaflets from both these parties, nothing from the others.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
They (Labour or Tory) will come for property equity, and allow inflation to rise above earnings and interest rates.
My assumption is it's the ex-lab, 2015 ukip, then brexit vote (that was blue a month ago) - which is boosting lab.
Any other theories?
I can't see why anyone fitting that description would vote for Corbyn. I am one of them, maybe not representative though. I live in a very Ukip area and have never heard anyone say one good thing about Corbyn, he is a laughing stock. In fact the only time two of my mates have ever brought up politics was to say 'wtf is that new labour weirdo all about'
He also states that 20% of UKIP 2015 voters are undecided at the moment. Will be interesting to know which way they break, although they only represent ~2.5% of votes up for grabs
I think much of this accounts for the unexpected 'swing' from Con to Lab. Some of the "right-wing" block vote moving Left.
However, if immigration is their prime motivator they will be very sorely disappointed with Corbyn. That might explain why a few attacks from May this week (with accompanying headlines) have been made on Labour on the subject.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
They (Labour or Tory) will come for property equity, and allow inflation to rise above earnings and interest rates.
There is no equivalence between Labour and Conservative on this.
The Tories will be fiscally responsible, and continue to consolidate the deficit, allowing for the costs and uncertainties of Brexit. They will also want real-wage growth as much as they can.
Labour will raise taxes based on ideology alone, and spend every penny they can get either fabricate or get their hands on while the economy shrinks.
Absolutely. I think it'll be terrific if Corbyn makes it - a huge sea change in British politics to adult, redistributive politics delivered without artifice, instead of the ineffective jostling into decline of recent years. (I know him moderately well so am of course biased.)
You can correct me if I'm missing something but the weird thing about this is that the manifesto doesn't actually seem very redistributive. Even the opposite, since it's very kind to the elderly and timid on benefits. It's the exact opposite of New Labour: They gave off a vibe as if they weren't going to redistribute then did, whereas the Corbyn plan seems to be to give off a vibe as if you are going to redistribute then don't.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
It redistributes from the rich and the poor to the middle class; while throwing in pointless and hugely expensive renationalisations.
Interesting podcast - after listening to Prof Curtis’ illuminations on his recent YouGov poll, I've decided not to place any bets on a hung parliament.
Seems like not many people watched the debates even here on PB, and the general view in the papers seems to be that Jezza looked shagged out and the rest would not look out of place in a sixth form common room
Theresa May's judgment has seldom looked sounder than when she decided to stay the heck away from this awful, bent, babyish custard-pie fight.
The broadcast media this morning are talking about nothing else.
Media criticising politicians for not doing what media wanted shocker!
Labour majority nailed on then, Roger?
No. My guess is that the Tories will beat Labour by about 42%/28%. My disappointment is that in order to garner the lowest common denominator the Tories have become barely distinguishable from UKIP.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
On the plus side the Champions Trophy starts today so we can all be diverted by more urgent matters. Cheer up!
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
The Tories are going to win easily. You should be worrying about what happens after tha, not John McDonnell settling scores from 11 Downing Street :-D
Morning all. I'm beginning to wonder if the polls with massive Tory leads were ever that accurate.
True they have not had a good campaign and May has not shown any leadership qualities or answered detailed questions (she should have been at the debate last night) and Corbyn has had a spirited campaign but he does not have very convincing answers either and has no experience of government or negotiating with the EU. Yet the election is on a knife edge if you believe YouGov and media coverage.
On QT on Friday I think May should debate Corbyn directly.
The one possibility that you may be right is that we have all become used to the pollsters under-finding Tories, which has been the pattern for many years (and is also a risk when canvassing). But the pollsters think they have now found ways to compensate for this, and most of them are 'adjusting' their raw results in all sorts of fiendish ways. What if they have over-compensated? That is the one scenario where Yougov might be right.
Nevertheless having looked at Survation's almost certain over-weighting of younger voters, my judgement remains that YouGov is probably wrong. Only a massive and unprecedented turnout by the young could deliver a Trump/Brexit outcome.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
The Tories are going to win easily. You should be worrying about what happens after tha, not John McDonnell settling scores from 11 Downing Street :-D
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
The only problem Labour have is that lots of universities will have broken up on June 9th so the university attending part of that demographic will be dispersed in a lot of cases. If you can find a uni that is not broken up on June 9th then that might be interesting, but I looked through a small number and it was not clear where that would be the case.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
Having a poll with the Tories three points ahead is one thing. Translating that into seats using some methodology which has been ridiculed by many on here is another.
I think the issue is actually 2 fold. The constituency methodology is part of the problem but eqally as was shown in 2015 that Yougov polls overstated Labour by a few percent - this doesn't seem to have been corrected in this poll.
Combine the 2 things together and as I stated on Monday night I just can't see the results happening...
It does give people things to worry about and a reason to vote next Thursday..
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
The Tories are going to win easily. You should be worrying about what happens after tha, not John McDonnell settling scores from 11 Downing Street :-D
why are you so certain
Old people vote and vote Tory; May easily leads Corbyn on leadership; the Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. I have a feeling Yorkshire may be, too.
For all those Tories panicking about the reaction to May's no-show, remember Blair did the same in 1997 having actually challenged Major to a debate and insisted he would not pull out. It made no difference to the result.
About the only useful or amusing thing that came out of that particular debacle was a fight between two men dressed as chickens - one hired by CCO to highlight Blair's withdrawal, and the other hired by the Daily Mirror to cause confusion. I'm hoping Milne doesn't try something similar.
Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
They (Labour or Tory) will come for property equity, and allow inflation to rise above earnings and interest rates.
There is no equivalence between Labour and Conservative on this.
The Tories will be fiscally responsible, and continue to consolidate the deficit, allowing for the costs and uncertainties of Brexit. They will also want real-wage growth as much as they can.
Labour will raise taxes based on ideology alone, and spend every penny they can get either fabricate or get their hands on while the economy shrinks.
Dream on! Labour would move quicker, that's all. And the 'long-term economic plan' that made urgent drastic spending reductions so vital just a few years ago is now so long-term that it is barely a plan. Fiscal responsibility went out the window with Brexit, and when it returns it will be balancing the books with new sources of taxation, for no government will be able to save significant extra amounts from cuts given the inexorable upward pressure on health, social care, pensions and education.
Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump
Hey ho...
Ah if only youd managed to make the economy work for people outside London
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
The only problem Labour have is that lots of universities will have broken up on June 9th so the university attending part of that demographic will be dispersed in a lot of cases. If you can find a uni that is not broken up on June 9th then that might be interesting, but I looked through a small number and it was not clear where that would be the case.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
#1 would be TMay who called this election now, just prior to Brexit negotiations.
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
The only problem Labour have is that lots of universities will have broken up on June 9th so the university attending part of that demographic will be dispersed in a lot of cases. If you can find a uni that is not broken up on June 9th then that might be interesting, but I looked through a small number and it was not clear where that would be the case.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
They (Labour or Tory) will come for property equity, and allow inflation to rise above earnings and interest rates.
There is no equivalence between Labour and Conservative on this.
The Tories will be fiscally responsible, and continue to consolidate the deficit, allowing for the costs and uncertainties of Brexit. They will also want real-wage growth as much as they can.
Labour will raise taxes based on ideology alone, and spend every penny they can get either fabricate or get their hands on while the economy shrinks.
There is nothing fiscally responsible about a No deal Brexit.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
whereas if the LDs had a half decent leader they would be going in to 2022 as the 2nd party not the third
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
The only problem Labour have is that lots of universities will have broken up on June 9th so the university attending part of that demographic will be dispersed in a lot of cases. If you can find a uni that is not broken up on June 9th then that might be interesting, but I looked through a small number and it was not clear where that would be the case.
I believe Oxford and Cambridge are still going. Even if the students will be divided between those worrying about their last exams and those not worrying about anything,
Time to get this straight. Britain is set on leaving the world’s richest single market in order to re-apply for access on much less favourable terms to the very same market? Well, yes. Forget it; it will not happen. You Brits may hanker for the past, but you are not that dumb.
The further you travel from Europe, the wider the enduring gulf of incomprehension about Britain’s decision to leave the EU.
The most frequent observation — and this applies to policymakers in Tokyo, Beijing, Delhi and beyond as well as in Washington — is that somehow Brexit just will not happen. Theresa May’s government, the voters, Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron — someone, somewhere — will derail the process. Britain will end up with some form at least of associate EU membership.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
Every thinking person now agrees that Brexit will be a disaster. So by the same token you xenophobes who can't claim the ignorance of the old and uneducated will never be forgiven
Didn't see the debate but did catch a tiny bit of Sky News. Niall Paterson put it to Owen Jones (who disagreed, of course) that the audience was clearly biased to the left. Was it?
That sort of thing is one reason the reality of debates don't measure up to the idea. Not to mention (although I am) it's ridiculous to have the PM and the Leader of the Opposition debating with the Greens and UKIP.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
Can I turn this around if I may. You're bright, you have views on issues. Why would you not want try and become an MP? I suspect that your answer's in there.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
The Tories are going to win easily. You should be worrying about what happens after tha, not John McDonnell settling scores from 11 Downing Street :-D
why are you so certain
Old people vote and vote Tory; May easily leads Corbyn on leadership; the Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. I have a feeling Yorkshire may be, too.
I agree about the Midlands. If anyone wants a value bet, West Bromwich East at 10/3 for the Conservatives looks too long to me. I'd say it's only evens. Watson has been invisible this campaign and if there is a Corgasm he will hardly benefit. But more pertinently, it's heavily Leave and he's not personally popular. DYOR, of course.
Ah if only youd managed to make the economy work for people outside London
Because Brexit is going to be great for them.
Oh, wait...
maybe yes, maybe no but when theyve got to the stage where they say sod it then it tells you something was wrong and the remainers didnt know how to fix it.
Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump
Hey ho...
Ah if only youd managed to make the economy work for people outside London
Brexit will cause a levelling down not a levelling up. There is no short term fix that will fix the problems of globalisation and an ageing population. All the nessecary cures are long term and involve a lot of work.
If it's sunny the students will be too busy enjoying the sunshine in the parks to vote. There will always be some excuse. I think the weather makes no difference to this.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
The Tories are going to win easily. You should be worrying about what happens after tha, not John McDonnell settling scores from 11 Downing Street :-D
why are you so certain
Old people vote and vote Tory; May easily leads Corbyn on leadership; the Midlands will be a bloodbath for Labour. I have a feeling Yorkshire may be, too.
Time to get this straight. Britain is set on leaving the world’s richest single market in order to re-apply for access on much less favourable terms to the very same market? Well, yes. Forget it; it will not happen. You Brits may hanker for the past, but you are not that dumb.
The further you travel from Europe, the wider the enduring gulf of incomprehension about Britain’s decision to leave the EU.
The most frequent observation — and this applies to policymakers in Tokyo, Beijing, Delhi and beyond as well as in Washington — is that somehow Brexit just will not happen. Theresa May’s government, the voters, Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron — someone, somewhere — will derail the process. Britain will end up with some form at least of associate EU membership.
maybe yes, maybe no but when theyve got to the stage where they say sod it then it tells you something was wrong and the remainers didnt know how to fix it.
Neither do the Brexiteers.
But the remainers didn't try and sell the public rainbows and unicorns
Didn't see the debate but did catch a tiny bit of Sky News. Niall Paterson put it to Owen Jones (who disagreed, of course) that the audience was clearly biased to the left. Was it?
That sort of thing is one reason the reality of debates don't measure up to the idea. Not to mention (although I am) it's ridiculous to have the PM and the Leader of the Opposition debating with the Greens and UKIP.
I think a low level of bias was inevitable from hosting it in Cambridge, where even the Tories tend to be what Mrs T would have called "wets". But Nuttall got a big round of applause for his strident comments on terrorism; I don't think a momentum audience would have clapped Nuttall for anything.
Further, although the Tories often forget, they win their majority power from our system based on a clear minority of the vote. Yet in their minds they somehow expect to represent the majority view.
The more fundamental problem is the same as for the campaign - the Tory part of the audience actually had very little to clap about.
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.
I did consider the 18-24 aged sailors and marines and dockyard apprectices for that constituency. One of the Portsmouth constituencies also has a lot of young voters, which I imagined might be for the same reason.
I do think that the 18-24 voting levels will be huge. Corbynism is almost predicated on it. Labour are offering a massive inter-generational redistribution from small and medium sized business shareholders (and pension fund holders) to this very specific age group. And the youth vote genuinely, for the first time, have an incentive.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
whereas if the LDs had a half decent leader they would be going in to 2022 as the 2nd party not the third
I have always said it will be a long road back, but am now looking more at gains than losses. Mays Tories are useless and she has a cabinet of numpties.
I would love to see NOC and a new election with new leaders next year.
I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.
How is this redistributive?
Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.
And those on benefits are going to be no better off.
Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.
The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
Politics in the days of 24 hour news and social media looks completely uninviting tempting only ego maniacs and madmen. There is no patience to discuss or analyse any complicated problems (like Social Care) and the desperation of the media for gotcha moments is as tiresome as "fact checkers" which involves highly selective statistics from those with their own agenda.
I don't think anyone could dispute that all the parties are suffering from a deficit of talent or that the choices are poor. The massive structural deficit run up in the Brown years is still not fixed making governance a dismal task of cutting corners and making do. Only a rapid spurt of growth could really change this and there seems little evidence such a thing is on the horizon.
maybe yes, maybe no but when theyve got to the stage where they say sod it then it tells you something was wrong and the remainers didnt know how to fix it.
Neither do the Brexiteers.
But the remainers didn't try and sell the public rainbows and unicorns
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.
I did consider the 18-24 aged sailors and marines and dockyard apprectices for that constituency. One of the Portsmouth constituencies also has a lot of young voters, which I imagined might be for the same reason.
I do think that the 18-24 voting levels will be huge. Corbynism is almost predicated on it. Labour are offering a massive inter-generational redistribution from small and medium sized business shareholders (and pension fund holders) to this very specific age group. And the youth vote genuinely, for the first time, have an incentive.
Yes, partly why the LibDems do very well in Portsmouth; they can mix patriotism and social conscience in a way that Labour sometimes finds difficult.
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
10 years of no real wage growth. I think that explains a lot of frustration.
Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump
Hey ho...
Ah if only youd managed to make the economy work for people outside London
Brexit will cause a levelling down not a levelling up. There is no short term fix that will fix the problems of globalisation and an ageing population. All the nessecary cures are long term and involve a lot of work.
and at present none of our political parties are doing much for the long terms.
I listen to your mob moaning about how brexit will hit the NHS if they cant import labour
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
Every thinking person now agrees that Brexit will be a disaster. So by the same token you xenophobes who can't claim the ignorance of the old and uneducated will never be forgiven
I agree about the Midlands. If anyone wants a value bet, West Bromwich East at 10/3 for the Conservatives looks too long to me. I'd say it's only evens. Watson has been invisible this campaign and if there is a Corgasm he will hardly benefit. But more pertinently, it's heavily Leave and he's not personally popular. DYOR, of course.
How happy would Corbyn be with Watson gone? I think he might dance a little jig at that result...even if he is down to 175 MPs.
Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
whereas if the LDs had a half decent leader they would be going in to 2022 as the 2nd party not the third
I have always said it will be a long road back, but am now looking more at gains than losses. Mays Tories are useless and she has a cabinet of numpties.
I would love to see NOC and a new election with new leaders next year.
So let's get this right. You think the worst outcome would be for the country to crash out of the EU with no deal. But you would love to see a timeline of events that would make that almost certain?
I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.
How is this redistributive?
Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.
And those on benefits are going to be no better off.
Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.
The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.
Have a good day all.
It seemed from the debates that food banks and poverty are now seen as relevant to character.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
They won't have enough money. Nobody will have enough money. This is the surreal thing about this election: It's supposed to be all about Brexit, but they're all making spending plans as if it's not going to happen.
They will tax, borrow and print until the debtors come a-knocking at the door.
They (Labour or Tory) will come for property equity, and allow inflation to rise above earnings and interest rates.
There is no equivalence between Labour and Conservative on this.
The Tories will be fiscally responsible, and continue to consolidate the deficit, allowing for the costs and uncertainties of Brexit. They will also want real-wage growth as much as they can.
Labour will raise taxes based on ideology alone, and spend every penny they can get either fabricate or get their hands on while the economy shrinks.
Dream on! Labour would move quicker, that's all. And the 'long-term economic plan' that made urgent drastic spending reductions so vital just a few years ago is now so long-term that it is barely a plan. Fiscal responsibility went out the window with Brexit, and when it returns it will be balancing the books with new sources of taxation, for no government will be able to save significant extra amounts from cuts given the inexorable upward pressure on health, social care, pensions and education.
Totally wrong. The fiscal consolidation plan has been maintained, just pushed back by 4 years to deal with the uncertainities of Brexit.
I agree about the Midlands. If anyone wants a value bet, West Bromwich East at 10/3 for the Conservatives looks too long to me. I'd say it's only evens. Watson has been invisible this campaign and if there is a Corgasm he will hardly benefit. But more pertinently, it's heavily Leave and he's not personally popular. DYOR, of course.
How happy would Corbyn be with Watson gone? I think he might dance a little jig at that result...even if he is down to 175 MPs.
That is true of course! One wonders how sorry Major was when some of the 'bastards' got it in 1997...
I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.
How is this redistributive?
Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.
And those on benefits are going to be no better off.
Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.
The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.
Have a good day all.
It seemed from the debates that food banks and poverty are now seen as relevant to character.
Interesting podcast - after listening to Prof Curtis’ illuminations on his recent YouGov poll, I've decided not to place any bets on a hung parliament.
The debate has stirred the casual politicians on my Facebook feed into life. As you all know, I hate discussing politics so I've asked them nicely to knock it off.
I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.
How is this redistributive?
Or subsidising University for the middle classes and better off graduates - we know what happens when you do this - the poorest in society lose access - look at Scotland.....
I think that we are seeing the results of 10 years of politician bashing. They have always been Aunt Sallys, but the expenses furore, and subsequent purges of both major parties have severely depleted the talent pool. The LD cataclysm lost a lot of talent and the SNP landslide elected lots of people who were quite unprepared. Add in the devoluted parliaments and city mayors as losses to Westminster and we are nowhere near the talent pool of former years. Some of the newbies may well grow into the role, but at present are at best keen but green.
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
Politics in the days of 24 hour news and social media looks completely uninviting tempting only ego maniacs and madmen. There is no patience to discuss or analyse any complicated problems (like Social Care) and the desperation of the media for gotcha moments is as tiresome as "fact checkers" which involves highly selective statistics from those with their own agenda.
I don't think anyone could dispute that all the parties are suffering from a deficit of talent or that the choices are poor. The massive structural deficit run up in the Brown years is still not fixed making governance a dismal task of cutting corners and making do. Only a rapid spurt of growth could really change this and there seems little evidence such a thing is on the horizon.
This.
Honestly, who'd want to be a politician?
Long hours, personal abuse, constant scrutiny, years of brownnosing, intrusion into your personal life, low salary, poor job security and always just one 'gaff' away from having your reputation destroyed forever.
It's no wonder few of the truly talented go into it.
Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.
Blues sit on their hands. They're quiet in pubs. They're shy. Then they troop down to the polling stations and silently place a cross next to the blue candidate.
Looking at the Yougov tables it is interesting to see how the 18-24 vote has been almost entirely hoovered up by Labour. Greens showing 0. Labour showing 69 weighted, 50 unweighted.
Also likelihood to vote amongst the 18-24 group is about the same as the 25-64 groups, though the 65+ old timers show slightly higher.
I have seen on here many people post that the young voters don't turn out on the day. However, (anecdotally) from my contacts in this age group there is huge voter engagement. Labour has three killer policies for all those in the age bracket which will break the traditional low turnout model:
For those not working: housing benefit restored for 18-21s, For those who are working: an immediate massive pay rise for those on National Minimum wage aged less than 25, especially under 21s, For students: no debt, plus grants
From a betting perspective, I'm nailing my colours to labour holds in marginals with lots of young voters, such as Nottingham South, plus one gain in Plymouth Sutton. There is still value out there, though not as good as 2 weeks ago.
It's Plymouth Sutton and Devonport though, as in HM Naval Base Devonport. I would have thought there are a fair few Labour voters there who would have a pathological dislike of Corbyn and all his works for very obvious reasons.
The issue in PS&D is where the 6.731 UKIP vote heads. They still have a candidate, but I doubt they will break 4 figures this time. I suspect many will have come from Labour - will they return, go Tory or stay home? Its a tricky seat to hold. That said, the Conservative mutual aid that was coming up from Plymouth in 2015 to tip LibDem seats blue can stay close to home this time - indeed they can be the recipient of aid themselves from a surrounding sea of blue.
Maybe not so good for the Tories. Wont the zimmer frames seize up?
they posted their votes 2 weeks ago
Unbelievably I just got a postal vote in France. My name on the letter box isn't even readable. French ingenuity.
The wonders of what in our Royal Mail was always called the 'blind duty'. They have the whole UK electoral register on disk and various other resources to direct badly addressed mail. All done free of charge. At some point I expect the now private company will wonder why it bothers.
Around 6.2 million employees in the UK were trade union members in 2016. The level of overall union members decreased by 275,000 over the year from 2015 (a 4.2% decrease), the largest annual fall recorded since the series began in 1995. Current membership levels are well below the peak of over 13 million in 1979.
Alongside the fall in trade union membership levels, there was an increase in the number of UK employees between 2015 and 2016. As a result, the proportion of employees who were trade union members fell to 23.5% in 2016, from 24.7% in 2015. This is the lowest rate of trade union membership recorded since 1995. Over this period, the proportion of employees who were trade union members in the UK has decreased 8.9 percentage points, from 32.4% in 1995.
YouGov is not doing these polls for free, is it? Surely it is doing what any business does - delivering on orders placed by customers. It's the media that commissions this stuff. And the Times has definitely got good value for its money.
On reflection - maybe that's wrong. As others have said, it's great brand building for YG and name recognition alone will get them plenty of commissions. If it is about brand building there would definitely be a temptation to develop ways of looking at things that create noise.
I hope you're right.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
Welcome to my world. The choice voters face in this election is the worst there has ever been. It is genuinely worrying: on one side a lamentably poor Conservative party willing to inflict economic catastrophe on the UK by walking out of the EU with no deal; on the other side a Labour party led by an incompetent throwback to the 1980s who surrounds himself with publis school Stalinists and every kind of anti-Western advocate you can imagine. What the hell have we done to deserve this?
There will be a deal. Even Theresa May said at the time the election was called that she needed a majority to be able to compromise with the EU. And, after this campaign, she won't have the same latitude she did within Cabinet anyway to maintain her opaque stance.
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
Every thinking person now agrees that Brexit will be a disaster. So by the same token you xenophobes who can't claim the ignorance of the old and uneducated will never be forgiven
I'm a xenophobe, am I?
Riiight. Thanks for clearing that up, Roger.
You were desperate to leave the EU on a visceral level. I can't envisage such passion if you were merely looking at the pros and cons of trade. So yes. Probably.
Anyway, it appears that dated fantasies that are actively destructive of the nation's wellbeing are all the rage on both the left and the right at present. Jeremy Corbyn is probably less dangerous than car crash Brexit because he's more transient.
Absolutely. I think it'll be terrific if Corbyn makes it - a huge sea change in British politics to adult, redistributive politics delivered without artifice, instead of the ineffective jostling into decline of recent years. (I know him moderately well so am of course biased.)
You can correct me if I'm missing something but the weird thing about this is that the manifesto doesn't actually seem very redistributive. Even the opposite, since it's very kind to the elderly and timid on benefits. It's the exact opposite of New Labour: They gave off a vibe as if they weren't going to redistribute then did, whereas the Corbyn plan seems to be to give off a vibe as if you are going to redistribute then don't.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
What the manifesto says is irrelevant.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
Mr. B2, hmm, thanks for that. Worth noting that the blues are polling between 40-46% with every pollster, though. If the audience represented that, it should've been apparent.
I am puzzled. Both BJO and Nick Palmer are looking forward to a properly socialist redistributive government if Labour wins. And yet their most popular policy is to preserve the inheritances of the rich and middle classes by not making them pay for social care.
How is this redistributive?
Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.
And those on benefits are going to be no better off.
Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.
The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.
Have a good day all.
It seemed from the debates that food banks and poverty are now seen as relevant to character.
Do they have food banks in Venezuela?
Venezuela is a catastrophic human tragedy. Why does it get so little coverage in the news?
Comments
http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/miriam-gonz-lez-dur-ntez-brexit-is-back-to-front-it-will-be-a-take-not-give-negotiation-a3553511.html
We really do have to hope the Tories do not actually believe the nonsense they are spouting.
I wonder if there might not be possible dialectical synthesis whereby you make the voters think you're going to redistribute, but only a little bit and not so much that it freaks them out, then get elected and do it.
I think there are real problems in trying to project national demographics into local seats, for many of the reasons you outlined.
The true colours of Corbyn/McDonnell will be revealed in office.
I didn't sleep last night because of that poll, and have been up since 4am.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/30/theresa-may-no-deal-brexit-talks-eu
Additionally most surveys are looking to see how one measure varies in relation to another, for example Educational outcome is influenced by family disposable income. In this case it is relatively straightforward to control for one, and observe the other. In politically polling this isnt the case, there is no real control variable, so you are left with trying to be representative of the population as a whole, whilst being unable to measure the variables which actually matter, like "political engagement" whilst simultaneously having a sample which has very strong reasons to misrepresent their views.
However willingness to walk away is a concept most people understand, even if they're only experience is trying to get 50p off at a car boot sale.
Of course the experienced vendor always knows: "they'll be back".
However, if immigration is their prime motivator they will be very sorely disappointed with Corbyn. That might explain why a few attacks from May this week (with accompanying headlines) have been made on Labour on the subject.
The Tories will be fiscally responsible, and continue to consolidate the deficit, allowing for the costs and uncertainties of Brexit. They will also want real-wage growth as much as they can.
Labour will raise taxes based on ideology alone, and spend every penny they can get either fabricate or get their hands on while the economy shrinks.
Edited extra bit. Careful editing managed reduce the amount of hysterical adoration given to JC in the clips this morning
With his fourth-form attitudes to national security, and mind-numbing incompetence, I think Corbyn could actually get people killed. McDonnell will use his budgets to settle scores, and we know what a thoroughly nasty piece of work he is.
I wouldn't forgive those that put him in power.
Nevertheless having looked at Survation's almost certain over-weighting of younger voters, my judgement remains that YouGov is probably wrong. Only a massive and unprecedented turnout by the young could deliver a Trump/Brexit outcome.
Combine the 2 things together and as I stated on Monday night I just can't see the results happening...
It does give people things to worry about and a reason to vote next Thursday..
just think this time next week we get to vote
About the only useful or amusing thing that came out of that particular debacle was a fight between two men dressed as chickens - one hired by CCO to highlight Blair's withdrawal, and the other hired by the Daily Mirror to cause confusion. I'm hoping Milne doesn't try something similar.
Without that the economy would be booming, Corbyn and his thugs would be an irrelevance, and we would welcome our European friends as allies against the insanity of Trump
Hey ho...
can the students be bothered ?
May will win, 76 majority is my prediction, but is in for a rough ride. She is not fit to lead on Brexit when so hapless in an election, and anti-austerity feeling is a genuine groundswell. She is in for a tough time and I have little sympathy. Her autocratic style is the problem not the solution.
It is important to have a strong opposition that can be a government in the wings. Corbyn will be too old by 2022, and with the kippers extinct the LDs will be back as the third party in England, in votes if not progressing in seats.
Oh, wait...
The further you travel from Europe, the wider the enduring gulf of incomprehension about Britain’s decision to leave the EU.
The most frequent observation — and this applies to policymakers in Tokyo, Beijing, Delhi and beyond as well as in Washington — is that somehow Brexit just will not happen. Theresa May’s government, the voters, Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron — someone, somewhere — will derail the process. Britain will end up with some form at least of associate EU membership.
https://www.ft.com/content/5c4e3720-45ed-11e7-8519-9f94ee97d996
Didn't see the debate but did catch a tiny bit of Sky News. Niall Paterson put it to Owen Jones (who disagreed, of course) that the audience was clearly biased to the left. Was it?
That sort of thing is one reason the reality of debates don't measure up to the idea. Not to mention (although I am) it's ridiculous to have the PM and the Leader of the Opposition debating with the Greens and UKIP.
But the remainers didn't try and sell the public rainbows and unicorns
https://twitter.com/michaelpdeacon/status/747000584226607104
Further, although the Tories often forget, they win their majority power from our system based on a clear minority of the vote. Yet in their minds they somehow expect to represent the majority view.
The more fundamental problem is the same as for the campaign - the Tory part of the audience actually had very little to clap about.
I do think that the 18-24 voting levels will be huge. Corbynism is almost predicated on it. Labour are offering a massive inter-generational redistribution from small and medium sized business shareholders (and pension fund holders) to this very specific age group. And the youth vote genuinely, for the first time, have an incentive.
"Every time the PM goes on robotically about “no deal is better than a bad deal” she reveals how very little she knows about trade."
Miriam González Durántez is an international trade lawyer
I would love to see NOC and a new election with new leaders next year.
How is this redistributive?
Of course there are all the proposals for wealth taxes, higher income taxes and this garden tax which would certainly be redistributive. But those who are moving away from the Tories to Labour because of social care don't appear to be noticing those. It does seem odd.
And those on benefits are going to be no better off.
Either way a lot of Labour voters are going to be a bit surprised when they find what a McDonnell budget does to their finances.
The "character" question bothers me a lot about Corbyn. It appears to bother no-one else. Oh well.
Have a good day all.
I don't think anyone could dispute that all the parties are suffering from a deficit of talent or that the choices are poor. The massive structural deficit run up in the Brown years is still not fixed making governance a dismal task of cutting corners and making do. Only a rapid spurt of growth could really change this and there seems little evidence such a thing is on the horizon.
"vote remain or I lose my job" - G Osborne
chortle
I think that explains a lot of frustration.
I listen to your mob moaning about how brexit will hit the NHS if they cant import labour
why not try training more people for a change ?
Riiight. Thanks for clearing that up, Roger.
Labour would be wilfully fiscally destructive.
Honestly, who'd want to be a politician?
Long hours, personal abuse, constant scrutiny, years of brownnosing, intrusion into your personal life, low salary, poor job security and always just one 'gaff' away from having your reputation destroyed forever.
It's no wonder few of the truly talented go into it.
https://twitter.com/John_Park/status/869904024144936960
Around 6.2 million employees in the UK were trade union members in 2016. The level of overall union members decreased by 275,000 over the year from 2015 (a 4.2% decrease), the largest annual fall recorded since the series began in 1995. Current membership levels are well below the peak of over 13 million in 1979.
Alongside the fall in trade union membership levels, there was an increase in the number of UK employees between 2015 and 2016. As a result, the proportion of employees who were trade union members fell to 23.5% in 2016, from 24.7% in 2015. This is the lowest rate of trade union membership recorded since 1995. Over this period, the proportion of employees who were trade union members in the UK has decreased 8.9 percentage points, from 32.4% in 1995.