I'm going to not vote, for the first time in a long time. My wife (Conservative voter in 2015) has urged me to vote for anyone by Ms Leyland. But I can't - with all good conscious - vote for any of the options.
The appropriate etiquette in this situation is to go along and write in Angela Merkel.
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
It's actually worse than that. The SNP would now be dealing with Corbyn and inevitably Scottish independence becomes more likely once again. Remainers will blame Brexit for this mess as some are already taking the opportunity to do. The country will be riven apart.
Scotland would go independent. Wee Jimmy is disliked in England but shed run a country better than the old fool who'd just been swept into power off a 95% 18-30 turnout
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
I'm sanguine.
They think Brexit will be a clusterf**k, they ain't seen nothin yet.
But you are right, the Conservatives are not an innocent party to this.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
I would let the kids off, but the over 35s should be imprisoned
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Thinking back to 2015 there was a wide divergence between phone and Internal panel polls, which turned out strongly in the phone poll's direction.
So much so that when EuRef came around we were all ready to ignore the Internet polls showing a close result and only really believe the Phone polls with their large Remain lead.
There's an argument to be made that the Internet panels are falling into the same trap as 2015 , and missing a whole swathe of Tory voters who don't have the time to fill in the surveys. Really don't believe for one second that there's only 3 points between the parties.
Thing is with online polls is that there may be issues in capturing the 65+ vote. Easier to get my age group to do these polls, especially with a money incentive. Less easier to get the oldies to do it when many of them are not very tech savvy.
@bobajobPB Yes, I agree. Their campaign has been awful so no surprises there.
Let's be specific - the manifesto was awful. The campaign is merely lacklustre and negative (as a result of the manifesto).
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
You won't see them for dust when the economy goes belly up.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
You won't see them for dust when the economy goes belly up.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
The Tory share is still hovering around 44%, give or take MoE. If that holds, they have a comfortable majority.
Being fat is a killer, if more people were ashamed of it, maybe they would do something about it. My father could do with getting a bit of body vanity rather than doing himself in.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
eh? a fair selection of PB righties (along with most of the commenters on order-order) did vote for corbyn.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
This panic is silly. I don't believe the public will elect Corbyn, not because they think he's a terrorist sympathiser, but because they don't think he'll be very good. The public has a sort of wisdom. They've got it right on Brexit, right on Indyref, right last GE, and they will get it right again, and give our Theresa a majority despite her being a bit pants at the moment.
There are a number of Tory MPs that I would vote for, but Tredinnick not only is bonkers, but also has spent his 30 years as an MP for Bosworth living in London and Sussex. He really is a donkey in a blue rosette. I am leafletting for LDs there as challengers.
I wouldn't vote for Alan Duncan either, having encountered him socially, while Edward Garnier was charming and helpful, and Nicky Morgan a very good constituency MP.
I honestly have never understood how people like Tredinnick obtain and keep such safe seats. Surely the number of people who would want such a seat must be a mile long and the man has been a constant and colossal twat his whole career. Is it things like this that stop impressive people going into politics or is it the lack of good people in politics that leads us to David Tredinnick?
I reckon I would be a rubbish MP.
But when I look at some people who do make it to the green benches, it does make you wonder whether "could I do a better job than him/her? In fact, how could I possibly do a worse job?"
I'm surprised constituency parties don't tell more of them that they've served their time now, time to look for fresh talent. But perhaps it can suit to have someone abject as the local MP. Someone smart and bright and on the way up may have less time for local affairs, particularly local party affairs.
I agree with that logic but Tredinnick from all reports is a fairly poor local MP as well. It's hard to imagine that him living over a hundred miles from his constituency for the last 3 decades combined with his general ineptitude would could be a good locally or nationally. I do think there is a good argument to say we shouldn't demand all our MPs be far above the average man as it would probably worsen the general disconnect already felt but I don't think he represents the common man either.
This is very fair. Didn't intend to suggest Tredinnick is a good local MP since better informed reports suggest otherwise, though I did particularly mean "keeps more influential members of the local party sweet" rather than "looks after the great mass of his constituents". (Whether Tredinnick takes particular pains to keep local bigwigs happy I don't know, but I'm sure this point applies to many others).
There are obviously other reasons to prefer someone stupid and supine - they make good lobby fodder, which must cheer up central party officials. But it does seem a waste of a seat.
Messrs Messina and Textor are working on the Tory campaign.
I dunno, perhaps they should treat them as accurate or close to it and campaign as it is a very close one. Put the effort in, re-focus for the final week ahead.
I would usually say start trying to sell the positives of things ahead from their manifesto to the public but can they do that with this manifesto?
How come there are two YG 50,000-respondent polls in Wikipedia?
I think it's a rolling 7 day, with 7,000 per day.
You therefore need to be careful with ELBOW - to avoid double counting you only want one poll every 7 days - ie include the first one, then ignore the next six and then take the one exactly a week after the first one.
Sounds bloody complicated, with just a week to go!
Anyhow, including all the polls in Wiki, with fieldwork ending after the 29th inclusive, I get:
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
Welcome to the dark side (if you do vote Tory). It's much more fun over here.
I saw that contaminate comment. That was pretty low.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
eh? a fair selection of PB righties (along with most of the commenters on order-order) did vote for corbyn.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
Welcome to the dark side (if you do vote Tory). It's much more fun over here.
I saw that contaminate comment. That was pretty low.
I once, on the same day, but in two different elections, voted Communist and Conservative.
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
I'd put it down to testosterone and alcohol and would expect an apology if people look objectively at what they wrote.
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
Welcome to the dark side (if you do vote Tory). It's much more fun over here.
I saw that contaminate comment. That was pretty low.
I once, on the same day, but in two different elections, voted Communist and Conservative.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
Plenty of 'Tories' cheering it too
Must say though, the prospect of PM Corbyn gives me some idea of how @AlastairMeeks and @Scott_P must feel about the EU ref. I simply can't believe I might live in a country that could vote this prick and his lunatic posse in as our PM, CoftheE etc but it might happen IF SOME of the polls are accurate
Let us mark them. Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery. No matter how well-meant.
Ironically, though, I'm not planning to scarper abroad if it doesn't go my way. Some traitor.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
Nobody can guarentee anything I'm afraid. Although it is very, very unlikly. Look at the avreage, it is still 9% tory lead.
Instead of worryingabout it why don't u try canvassing in your nearest marginal if possible?
I doubt I'll have the willpower to do it but I'm thinking of swearing off political news and sites incl. this one until 10pm next Thurday. I'm just getting stressed and headachey with all this uncertainty!
On this election, is it just me or does the whole thing make absolutely no sense?
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
Has anyone who fears Corbyn taken out insurance against him winning?
ie Lay Con Maj or back NOM (if willing to ignore possibility of Lab Maj at this stage).
If anyone fears Corbyn will cost them serious money then it could be worth considering doing this - not as a bet but as a simple financial transaction to mitigate personal downside which would arise from him winning.
OK, I'll admit it - I've done it. Did it in tranches over a period but most was about two weeks ago so I got better odds than available now.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
An election featuring Corbyn in it has the same kind of this-is-your-one-shot attraction that Brexit and Sindyref did. Obviously this rubs both ways, but to the extent that it favours higher turnout, it favours Labour. (Albeit likely inefficiently, it would be reasonable to expect a proportionately far better showing from the young'uns compared to GE2010 or 2015.)
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
Frankly, nobody knows. I still think it's inconceivable, but then I thought that about Brexit. I was happy to be wrong last year so maybe I'll get my comeuppance this time.
On this election, is it just me or does the whole thing make absolutely no sense?
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
You did vote leave ?
Are you worried he would backtrack on brexit with so many remain supporters backing him ?
How come there are two YG 50,000-respondent polls in Wikipedia?
I think it's a rolling 7 day, with 7,000 per day.
You therefore need to be careful with ELBOW - to avoid double counting you only want one poll every 7 days - ie include the first one, then ignore the next six and then take the one exactly a week after the first one.
Sounds bloody complicated, with just a week to go!
Anyhow, including all the polls in Wiki, with fieldwork ending after the 29th inclusive, I get:
Con 42.8 Lab 36.5 LD 8.3 UKIP 4.2
Tory lead 6.3 (-2.1)
Sorry if complicated.
I was just making the point that if you include every YouGov "50,000" poll then you are massively doublecounting - as each poll is 6/7 the same as the previous one..
How come there are two YG 50,000-respondent polls in Wikipedia?
I think it's a rolling 7 day, with 7,000 per day.
You therefore need to be careful with ELBOW - to avoid double counting you only want one poll every 7 days - ie include the first one, then ignore the next six and then take the one exactly a week after the first one.
Sounds bloody complicated, with just a week to go!
Anyhow, including all the polls in Wiki, with fieldwork ending after the 29th inclusive, I get:
Con 42.8 Lab 36.5 LD 8.3 UKIP 4.2
Tory lead 6.3 (-2.1)
Sorry if complicated.
I was just making the point that if you include every YouGov "50,000" poll then you are massively doublecounting - as each poll is 6/7 the same as the previous one..
I'm just not going to include it. The regular YouGovs will reflect that poll.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
You did vote leave ?
Are you worried he would backtrack on brexit with so many remain supporters backing him ?
I did but didn't want a hard BREXIT. So I think he will deliver my kind of BREXIT.
Has anyone who fears Corbyn taken out insurance against him winning?
ie Lay Con Maj or back NOM (if willing to ignore possibility of Lab Maj at this stage).
If anyone fears Corbyn will cost them serious money then it could be worth considering doing this - not as a bet but as a simple financial transaction to mitigate personal downside which would arise from him winning.
OK, I'll admit it - I've done it. Did it in tranches over a period but most was about two weeks ago so I got better odds than available now.
If you do want to do that, it's probably worth looking into getting a dollar or euro betfair account before you place your bet - assuming the £ will fall.
I don't know quite how the markets would react though.
Maybe the prospect of a soft/no brexit would strengthen the pound?
The manifesto is middle-of-the-road european social democracy in economic terms, not batshit crazy zimbabwe.
A few weeks ago everyone was talking about a low turnout of about 60%. Maybe it'll be nearer 70% now.
I've always thought turnout would be very high at this election.
Could easily see it being the highest since 1992.
The question is will it be the young whippersnappers voting for Corbyn that is the big driver.
Partly. And Oldies wanting to stop him. People wanting to stop Brexit. People wanting to secure Brexit. People wanting to guarantee their inheritances. And people who think they are going to vote one way on their way to the polling station only to do something else when they have the pencil hovering over the ballot paper...
On this election, is it just me or does the whole thing make absolutely no sense?
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
Even if Labour were to lose, I think the party will be left for the foreseeable future, so I think you'd get the chance again in 2022. The Right of the party doesn't appear to have any ideas or vision to counter the Left, which is why I think the party will remain Left.
They just need to find someone with less controversial views/statements than Corbyn.
can somebody on here please assure me that we will not have prime minister Jeremy Corbyn next Thursday because I'm having major stress levels at the moment thinking of the awful consequences of what that actually means if it were to come to pass
To be honest I would have thought it was a self-annihilating coalition if Corbyn does manage to cobble together a coalition containing the SNP (which strikes me as the only plausible path for him and even then I still l can't honestly imagine CON less than 320). Even in that unimaginable scenario trying to make a coalition that contains 40-50 MPs expecting to be out of a job and the rest who will know the long term political consequences from serving in a Corbyn government makes me think that the "coalition of chaos" probably contains the Conservatives rather than Labour.
I do wonder if Sinn Fein would take there seats if a Corbyn coalition offering Irish and Scottish independence was on the table? But as I said I cannot believe he could find the Labour or Lib Dem MPs (from the whole tandem full) willing to work with him in this scenario anyway.
Has anyone who fears Corbyn taken out insurance against him winning?
ie Lay Con Maj or back NOM (if willing to ignore possibility of Lab Maj at this stage).
If anyone fears Corbyn will cost them serious money then it could be worth considering doing this - not as a bet but as a simple financial transaction to mitigate personal downside which would arise from him winning.
OK, I'll admit it - I've done it. Did it in tranches over a period but most was about two weeks ago so I got better odds than available now.
If you do want to do that, it's probably worth looking into getting a dollar or euro betfair account before you place your bet.
i don;t know quite how the markets would react though.
Maybe the prospect of a soft/no brexit (even with corbyn) would strengthen the pound?
Has anyone who fears Corbyn taken out insurance against him winning?
ie Lay Con Maj or back NOM (if willing to ignore possibility of Lab Maj at this stage).
If anyone fears Corbyn will cost them serious money then it could be worth considering doing this - not as a bet but as a simple financial transaction to mitigate personal downside which would arise from him winning.
OK, I'll admit it - I've done it. Did it in tranches over a period but most was about two weeks ago so I got better odds than available now.
If you do want to do that, maybe worth getting a dollar or euro betfair account before you place your bet.
Thanks for advice - but I've already placed bets and I don't want to bet any more.
On average I've backed NOM at just under 11 and laid Con Maj at just over 1.14.
I don't want to do any more because I've already done a significant sum and if my bets win I win a very substantial sum of money indeed.
Obviously the chances of winning have now risen but I don't want to bet more at the much worse odds now available.
For the record I am still very much hoping to lose my bets - but if the worst happens I do at least get very substantial compensation on 9 June.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
It'll be funny if the Tories win a 150 seat majority after all this.
Michael Moszynski - who predicted IndyRef, GE 2015, and EUref correctly rubbished YouGov today and said that he thinks the Tories will win a majority between 103-108.
The polling industry has been so topsy-turvy in recent years it's unreal.
Dear Apocolypse, saw some of the hassle you got earlier. You have every right to vote how you want, and have no need to justify it to anyone. I know you don't need my validation, but you have it anyway.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
Were you hounded for voting Tory? The (rabid) left are so nice, aren't they.
I haven't voted yet.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
There is a deeply troubling tendency towards misogyny by some on the Left. We have seen some unpleasant examples of it here in the past. It is so counter-intuitive, but there we are.
I can honestly say I can't recall any examples from posters of the Right.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
On this election, is it just me or does the whole thing make absolutely no sense?
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
I actually think that if you ignore the Lib Dems it kind of makes sense. The Tories are embracing UKIP destroying them and Labour likewise with the Greens (not all but certainly a lot of people vote Green due to Labour not being Left wing enough for them). If only one of these was happening the voters would pour from the Tories to Labour or vice versa but with both I think it just creates two distant islands of voters which are hard to travel between. I really though even with their awful campaigning and Farron himself the Lib Dems would still manage to take advantage of this but that aforementioned awfulness seems to have combined with fear of the other side winning to really sideline them.
I'm not entirely sure there are words sufficient to express my contempt for the leadership of the Tory party, from John Major to David Cameron and George Osborne, right down to Theresa May.
The constant frustration of the public's rightful scepticism over the EU, may now result in a quasi-Marxist government of the UK.
Well done, chaps. No, really. Well DONE.
BRAVO.
It's actually worse than that. The SNP would now be dealing with Corbyn and inevitably Scottish independence becomes more likely once again. Remainers will blame Brexit for this mess as some are already taking the opportunity to do. The country will be riven apart.
Scotland would go independent. Wee Jimmy is disliked in England but shed run a country better than the old fool who'd just been swept into power off a 95% 18-30 turnout
Corbyn would only get into No10 with a clear swing from SNP to Labour in Scotland
Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery.
Who on earth might we be betraying? Some of us have been socialists all our lives and we're proud of it.
I haven't taken any oath of loyalty to the monarch. She should stand trial at the Hague.
WTF does it mean to "vote for Corbyn" anyway? He's only on the ballot in one constituency. I was going to say that along with Harold Wilson he'll be one of the best two PMs since Clement Attlee, but I think Wilson's job in 1964 in fast-fading grouse moor Britain was much easier than Corbyn's in "Game of Thrones" 2017.
In 1964, Private Eye, That Was The Week That Was, the Lady Chatterley's Lover trial and the Profumo scandal had all happened during the lifetime of the outgoing Parliament. The Tory formerly known as the 14th Earl of Home didn't have much of a chance.
This time, well it's not stupendously difficult for Labour, given that the Tories called a snap election on "Brexit" but clearly don't know WTF they'd do in that department - and given that the long-term division in their ranks over the idiotic "How should an Englishman treat the continentals?" question has pushed the country a long way towards the U-bend. Meanwhile their all-piss-and-feathers leader is too chickenshit to debate the LOTO despite her party's main theme being that the LOTO is the devil. Like, duuuhhh! But still, Corbyn has most of the press against him, he was 20% behind in the polls a short while ago, he gained and kept the Labour leadership despite strong opposition from a bunch of mushroom-cloud lovers, and he's still overseen the best Labour manifesto since 1983 and he's kicking the Tories' arses all around the floor with it. Credit where it's due. Go Corbyn!
On this election, is it just me or does the whole thing make absolutely no sense?
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
I actually think that if you ignore the Lib Dems it kind of makes sense. The Tories are embracing UKIP destroying them and Labour likewise with the Greens (not all but certainly a lot of people vote Green due to Labour not being Left wing enough for them). If only one of these was happening the voters would pour from the Tories to Labour or vice versa but with both I think it just creates two distant islands of voters which are hard to travel between. I really though even with their awful campaigning and Farron himself the Lib Dems would still manage to take advantage of this but that aforementioned awfulness seems to have combined with fear of the other side winning to really sideline them.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
Any PB-er who votes for Corbyn, is, in essence, engaging in treachery.
Who on earth might we be betraying? Some of us have been socialists all our lives and we're proud of it.
WTF does it mean to "vote for Corbyn" anyway? He's only on the ballot in one constituency. I was going to say that along with Harold Wilson he'll be one of the best two PMs since Clement Attlee, but I think Wilson's job in 1964 in fast-fading grouse moor Britain was much easier than Corbyn's in "Game of Thrones" 2017.
In 1964, Private Eye, That Was The Week That Was, the Lady Chatterley's Lover trial and the Profumo scandal had all happened during the lifetime of the outgoing Parliament. The Tory formerly known as the 14th Earl of Home didn't have much of a chance.
This time, well it's not stupendously difficult for Labour, given that the Tories called a snap election on "Brexit" but clearly don't know WTF they'd do in that department - and given that the long-term division in their ranks over the idiotic "How should an Englishman treat the continentals?" question has pushed the country a long way towards the U-bend. Meanwhile their all-piss-and-feathers leader is too chickenshit to debate the LOTO despite her party's main theme being that the LOTO is the devil. Like, duuuhhh! But still, Corbyn has most of the press against him, he was 20% behind in the polls a short while ago, he gained and kept the Labour leadership despite strong opposition from a bunch of mushroom-cloud lovers, and he's still overseen the best Labour manifesto since 1983 and he's kicking the Tories' arses all around the floor with it. Credit where it's due. Go Corbyn!
I may not like Corbyn's views much but other than getting a bit too close to the IRA I would not argue he is a traitor, indeed you could well argue the SNP and some of the most ardent Remoaners who always put the EU first are greater traitors to the UK, Corbyn at least still says he opposes Scottish independence and has accepted Brexit
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
Just curious, do you agree with Diane Abbott's 2008 comment that Mao "on balance did more good than harm"?
After all, he only killed 50 million or so.
I do think the Tories have a real problem here. They decided to save their main attacks on Corbyn and Co's past (and near present tbh) for the last few weeks of this campaign and the truth is far too lurid for anyone to believe unless it's really common knowledge (and beyond the high towers of PB and the like it seems it really hasn't been well known). Given this I think a lot of people are just convinced these stories are just Tory attacks. Just like the "Tories for Corbyn" thing I think it shows the folly of trying to keep a weak opponent in place by playing games.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
ICM also still had the Tories ahead in Tory held marginal, if Yougov is correct then virtually all the other pollsters are wrong but unlike ICM and Comres Yougov does not use a 2015 turnout model
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
And according to my analysis that represents a 7% swing to the Tories in those seats (cf. 2% swing across GB).
We have to be careful with these small subsamples but the three ICM polls since Manchester have shown similar figures for that subset.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
ICM also still had the Tories ahead in Tory held marginal, if Yougov is correct then virtually all the other pollsters are wrong but unlike ICM and Comres Yougov does not use a 2015 turnout model
.....but ICM showed a swing to Labour in Tory marginals nonetheless, which indicates Labour gaining some seats from the Tories, even if they lose the popular vote by 12%.
The big difference between ICM and YouGov is that ICM thinks the national gap between the two parties is much larger than YouGov thinks. And they may well be right about that. But what I'm talking about here is the idea that the Conservatives are underperforming in marginal seats, as compared to their national voteshares - something which the YouGov model says is the case, and which the ICM poll also doesn't disprove, since it's showing a swing to Labour in a big batch of marginals, despite the very same data showing a national swing to the Tories.
Thank you. As someone who has been consistent in my anti-Corbyn position on this site, I was rather shocked by the response of some PBers. I had always maintained I wouldn't vote Labour, so I don't know why they were so surprised.
@jonny83 Yes, I did - via YT. I felt sorry for Twyman!
No problem.I am anti-Corbyn but will be voting Labour. It is a democratic election.
I must say for election that feels more leader focused than any before it, it astounds me just how disliked both May and Corbyn are by most people I know and seemingly here (very unrepresentative samples I imagine of course!).
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
You did vote leave ?
Are you worried he would backtrack on brexit with so many remain supporters backing him ?
I did but didn't want a hard BREXIT. So I think he will deliver my kind of BREXIT.
I would do the same if nearly all the policies I agreed with but this labour party frightens the hell out of me - immigration,foreign policy,brexit and the 3 people at the head of your party.
The economy post down thread,you could be right but with mcdonnell in charge of the treasury then who knows ;-)
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
ICM - Con marginal seats, majority of <10% (over ANY second-placed party, note. Average Con lead over Lab in these seats was 10 points in 2015)
19-21 May: Con lead of 27 (swing to Con of 8%) 24-26 May: Con lead of 34 (swing to Con of 12%) 26-29 May: Lab lead of 1 (swing to Lab of 5%)
Tiny subsamples - but take the average of the last three and you get a pro-Con swing of 5%.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
No, it shows Labour ahead in both Tory and Labour marginals...until you apply the ICM turnout theory, which tips them fractionally the other way. But essentially we're talking about very small numbers in very small subsamples, so I wouldn't see them as proof of anything either way. We should get a clear polling trend by, say, June 15...
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
ICM also still had the Tories ahead in Tory held marginal, if Yougov is correct then virtually all the other pollsters are wrong but unlike ICM and Comres Yougov does not use a 2015 turnout model
.....but ICM showed a swing to Labour in Tory marginals nonetheless, which indicates Labour gaining some seats from the Tories, even if they lose the popular vote by 12%.
The big difference between ICM and YouGov is that ICM thinks the national gap between the two parties is much larger than YouGov thinks. And they may well be right about that. But what I'm talking about here is the idea that the Conservatives are underperforming in marginal seats, as compared to their national voteshares - something which the YouGov model says is the case, and which the ICM poll also doesn't disprove, since it's showing a swing to Labour in a big batch of marginals, despite the very same data showing a national swing to the Tories.
The big danger for Labour is piling up even more votes than usual in their safe seats, while flatlining everywhere else.
But YouGov suggests the exact opposite: Tories piling up most of their extra votes in safe Labour seats where they're too far behind to win, and in safe Tory seats where extra votes are just wasted on bigger majorities.
ICM has the Tories 5% ahead in Labour held marginals
While also showing a hefty swing to Labour in Tory-held marginals.
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
ICM also still had the Tories ahead in Tory held marginal, if Yougov is correct then virtually all the other pollsters are wrong but unlike ICM and Comres Yougov does not use a 2015 turnout model
.....but ICM showed a swing to Labour in Tory marginals nonetheless, which indicates Labour gaining some seats from the Tories, even if they lose the popular vote by 12%.
The big difference between ICM and YouGov is that ICM thinks the national gap between the two parties is much larger than YouGov thinks. And they may well be right about that. But what I'm talking about here is the idea that the Conservatives are underperforming in marginal seats, as compared to their national voteshares - something which the YouGov model says is the case, and which the ICM poll also doesn't disprove, since it's showing a swing to Labour in a big batch of marginals, despite the very same data showing a national swing to the Tories.
Subsamples.
Indeed, but it was HYUFD who started using an ICM subsample to disprove the YouGov model!
Absolutely. Jezza gives me the first manifesto I can 100% agree with.
Just curious, do you agree with Diane Abbott's 2008 comment that Mao "on balance did more good than harm"?
After all, he only killed 50 million or so.
I do think the Tories have a real problem here. They decided to save their main attacks on Corbyn and Co's past (and near present tbh) for the last few weeks of this campaign and the truth is far too lurid for anyone to believe unless it's really common knowledge (and beyond the high towers of PB and the like it seems it really hasn't been well known). Given this I think a lot of people are just convinced these stories are just Tory attacks. Just like the "Tories for Corbyn" thing I think it shows the folly of trying to keep a weak opponent in place by playing games.
Mao Zedong was a mass-murdering scumbag and so were Winston Churchill and King Leopold. Diane Abbott doesn't half talk shit sometimes. Perhaps it was at Cambridge that she learnt the attitude that she can gob off on stuff she knows little about?
People simply aren't interested in what Corbyn said in the 1980s. They're not that stupid. They are worried about the near future and rightly so. It's great that so many, including people in all age groups, are rejecting the "F*** you, I'm all right, Jack" theory of security and are showing an understanding that security will be nothing if it's not collective. The fabric of society is worth defending against the motherf*ckers of Wonga, the City and offshore private-equity firms who want to tear it apart with their moneygrabbing fangs bared and who are Tory supporters to a man. Similarly the reason the Tories hate Corbyn has nothing to do with what he said in the 1980s. It's precisely because he's a socialist and socialism is on the up again.
Comments
@Sean_F You'd have to ask them!
We have one cat. He's more than enough.
They think Brexit will be a clusterf**k, they ain't seen nothin yet.
But you are right, the Conservatives are not an innocent party to this.
That'll be £50, please.
(Also promising to abandon attacks on Jezza)
TMICIPM majority circa 60-70
Calm
Cost 'em £3.
"popcorn" they said.
I said I'd probably vote Green but this had been the closest I'd come to considering voting Tory.
That then lead to two to claim/imply I'd always been a Tory, another person said I would contaminate Labour's vote if I did vote for them.
Southam didn't do this, he laid out the reasons why I shouldn't vote Conservative, but others just made personal statements that made me say some things which I regret, but said in the heat of the moment.
I'm considering voting LD after what @IanB2 has said today as well, so it's likely more than not that I'll vote for a left of centre party.
Interestingly another PBer (Thomas Nashe I think) who actually said he'd voting Tory, after years of voting Labour and he didn't get any truck from those PBers who had issues with me.
So I found the whole thing strange.
https://twitter.com/MaggieJordanACN/status/868494179835551744
Is there anyone on PB actually supportive of May or Corbyn (or Farron for that matter)? I mean not just voting against the other, or for their party to win / not be crushed, but actually in favour of either of them being PM? It amazes me we are in this situation.
There are obviously other reasons to prefer someone stupid and supine - they make good lobby fodder, which must cheer up central party officials. But it does seem a waste of a seat.
I would usually say start trying to sell the positives of things ahead from their manifesto to the public but can they do that with this manifesto?
Anyhow, including all the polls in Wiki, with fieldwork ending after the 29th inclusive, I get:
Con 42.8
Lab 36.5
LD 8.3
UKIP 4.2
Tory lead 6.3 (-2.1)
I saw that contaminate comment. That was pretty low.
Will serve them right
Since when did "call out" seep into acceptable discourse? The Standard used it on its front page today. There's something of the schoolyard about it.
Do I count?
Instead of worryingabout it why don't u try canvassing in your nearest marginal if possible?
Yes there is a special place in hell reserved for uncivic losers who try to game the leadership election of another party of state.
Whereas YouGov's model has Rudd losing her seat, Hanretty has her doubling her majority to 18 points.
I mean, the leaders of both the main parties are shit, the voters know they're shit, so why are UKIP + LibDem + Green down to like 4 guys and a dog between them?
This is probably the only time in my lifetime I get an opportunity to change the country I live in from a me me me society to a more caring compassionate one.
The worst excesses of Capitalism need curtailing I don't think there will be a 2nd chance to do this.
Could easily see it being the highest since 1992.
ie Lay Con Maj or back NOM (if willing to ignore possibility of Lab Maj at this stage).
If anyone fears Corbyn will cost them serious money then it could be worth considering doing this - not as a bet but as a simple financial transaction to mitigate personal downside which would arise from him winning.
OK, I'll admit it - I've done it. Did it in tranches over a period but most was about two weeks ago so I got better odds than available now.
Are you worried he would backtrack on brexit with so many remain supporters backing him ?
That's what makes me so confident TMICIPM
I was just making the point that if you include every YouGov "50,000" poll then you are massively doublecounting - as each poll is 6/7 the same as the previous one..
New forecast : Tory majority of 90 (-5)
I don't know quite how the markets would react though.
Maybe the prospect of a soft/no brexit would strengthen the pound?
The manifesto is middle-of-the-road european social democracy in economic terms, not batshit crazy zimbabwe.
Hmm. maybe the £ would go up.
I've confused myself.
Even if Labour were to lose, I think the party will be left for the foreseeable future, so I think you'd get the chance again in 2022. The Right of the party doesn't appear to have any ideas or vision to counter the Left, which is why I think the party will remain Left.
They just need to find someone with less controversial views/statements than Corbyn.
I do wonder if Sinn Fein would take there seats if a Corbyn coalition offering Irish and Scottish independence was on the table? But as I said I cannot believe he could find the Labour or Lib Dem MPs (from the whole tandem full) willing to work with him in this scenario anyway.
After all, he only killed 50 million or so.
On average I've backed NOM at just under 11 and laid Con Maj at just over 1.14.
I don't want to do any more because I've already done a significant sum and if my bets win I win a very substantial sum of money indeed.
Obviously the chances of winning have now risen but I don't want to bet more at the much worse odds now available.
For the record I am still very much hoping to lose my bets - but if the worst happens I do at least get very substantial compensation on 9 June.
I can honestly say I can't recall any examples from posters of the Right.
I haven't taken any oath of loyalty to the monarch. She should stand trial at the Hague.
WTF does it mean to "vote for Corbyn" anyway? He's only on the ballot in one constituency. I was going to say that along with Harold Wilson he'll be one of the best two PMs since Clement Attlee, but I think Wilson's job in 1964 in fast-fading grouse moor Britain was much easier than Corbyn's in "Game of Thrones" 2017.
In 1964, Private Eye, That Was The Week That Was, the Lady Chatterley's Lover trial and the Profumo scandal had all happened during the lifetime of the outgoing Parliament. The Tory formerly known as the 14th Earl of Home didn't have much of a chance.
This time, well it's not stupendously difficult for Labour, given that the Tories called a snap election on "Brexit" but clearly don't know WTF they'd do in that department - and given that the long-term division in their ranks over the idiotic "How should an Englishman treat the continentals?" question has pushed the country a long way towards the U-bend. Meanwhile their all-piss-and-feathers leader is too chickenshit to debate the LOTO despite her party's main theme being that the LOTO is the devil. Like, duuuhhh! But still, Corbyn has most of the press against him, he was 20% behind in the polls a short while ago, he gained and kept the Labour leadership despite strong opposition from a bunch of mushroom-cloud lovers, and he's still overseen the best Labour manifesto since 1983 and he's kicking the Tories' arses all around the floor with it. Credit where it's due. Go Corbyn!
In short, the centre has been trashed.
The country will be sick of the Tories by then
That is not inconsistent with the YouGov model, which even with only a 3% national lead still shows Tories gaining some seats from Labour, while Labour gains some seats from the Tories
We have to be careful with these small subsamples but the three ICM polls since Manchester have shown similar figures for that subset.
The big difference between ICM and YouGov is that ICM thinks the national gap between the two parties is much larger than YouGov thinks. And they may well be right about that. But what I'm talking about here is the idea that the Conservatives are underperforming in marginal seats, as compared to their national voteshares - something which the YouGov model says is the case, and which the ICM poll also doesn't disprove, since it's showing a swing to Labour in a big batch of marginals, despite the very same data showing a national swing to the Tories.
The economy post down thread,you could be right but with mcdonnell in charge of the treasury then who knows ;-)
19-21 May: Con lead of 27 (swing to Con of 8%)
24-26 May: Con lead of 34 (swing to Con of 12%)
26-29 May: Lab lead of 1 (swing to Lab of 5%)
Tiny subsamples - but take the average of the last three and you get a pro-Con swing of 5%.
People simply aren't interested in what Corbyn said in the 1980s. They're not that stupid. They are worried about the near future and rightly so. It's great that so many, including people in all age groups, are rejecting the "F*** you, I'm all right, Jack" theory of security and are showing an understanding that security will be nothing if it's not collective. The fabric of society is worth defending against the motherf*ckers of Wonga, the City and offshore private-equity firms who want to tear it apart with their moneygrabbing fangs bared and who are Tory supporters to a man. Similarly the reason the Tories hate Corbyn has nothing to do with what he said in the 1980s. It's precisely because he's a socialist and socialism is on the up again.