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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: That latest YouGov forecast, pollster wars & TMay’s lost momentum
On this week’s episode of the PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Chris Curtis from YouGov and Adam Drummond of Opinium to discuss the latest polling and General Election campaign developments.
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Amber Rudd says the best person to lead Britain is someone who is too weak and scared to turn up to a TV debate.
@AmberRuddHR - an ex-stockbroker and descendant of Charles II. This is the elite that wants Britain to stay rigged
Hopefully the good sense of the British people will elect May despite her very best efforts. She doesn't deserve it but we don't have a viable choice.
God I can't wait for this to be over.
THAT's NOTHING! I did the Settle to Carlisle rail line today!
Mwahahahaha!
http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/how-have-the-polls-changed-since-2015/
First of all, it looks like the BPC is getting its excuses in early for any polling failure.
"The Council thus resolves to commission for publication and launch in autumn 2019, a report that describes the methods being used by its members in their polls of UK election voting intentions and how these methods have changed since 2015. This report will be launched at a seminar at which individual member companies will present details of their current methodology.
This motion was, of course, written in the expectation that, given the terms of the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, the next general election would be held in May 2020. The decision of the Prime Minister, endorsed by the House of Commons, that a snap election should be held on 8 June 2017 has meant that the BPC has been unable to implement its motion by holding an event and publishing a report as it originally intended."
Now look at what YouGov say in their response to how they have changed their panel post-2015
"Panel Recruitment
Since 2015 we have focused our efforts at recruiting people into our panel of potential respondents more specifically upon those who belong to groups that were under-represented in our samples during the 2015 election, particularly those with a low level of interest in politics, younger panellists with low educational qualifications, and those who did not vote at the previous general election."
That seems in a nutshell what might be happening with YouGov and its results. Seems like a recipe for disaster but who knows?
In Bootle, there is projected to be a much-fabled Tory surge: their vote is projected to go up 10 points to 18%. But that doesn't get them any bang for their buck since Labour will still safely romp home
In Christchurch, again, the Tories are set to rocket from a pensioners' bonus, with their vote also projected to go up by 10% there, taking them to 68%. But that also doesn't get them any extra bang for their buck, since they already hold that seat.
Meanwhile, in their #1 target seat Chester, they're projected to get 44% -- that's up only 1% on 2015, and leaves them trailing Labour by more than 5%.
That's all IF YouGov is correct....
Thank God its open again
"Corbyn is offering the electorate a free lunch and they're buying it".
http://survation.com/tide-turned-david-cowling/
Some food for thought, Tories still ahead on key areas despite campaign foul ups.
Do you not think the PM should defend her policies
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Tory sympathisers rubbishing of #bbcdebates suggests to me they are a little bit worried about Where's May? Good tactics by JC
Con 42%
Lab 39%
LD 7%
UKIP 4%
Oth 8%
https://www.varsity.co.uk/images/derived/article-objects/md5-6146fad08e4b99482dc8082c34787fb4/18904.jpeg
I'm very doubtful that the gap between the two parties is as small as 3-4% like YouGov claim (10% is much closer to the mark I think, maybe a bit less on a good day for Lab) but their workings of how proportionally the votes are going to stack up, which seats the parties will increase/decrease the most in, looks pretty sound to me. Whatever their voteshare lead on the day, I think the Tories will have a smaller lead in seats than UNS would indicate.
https://www.thinkbox.tv/~/media/Images/Chart-Images/Research/Thinkbox-Research/TV-Nation-Ad-Nation-2016/TV-Nation-Ad-Nation-2016-Slide-08.ashx?la=en&hash=3A95F42E97F42BCC2E88A9BEFDC10C138AF4752C
The general population is far less "twitterised" than many of the opinion formers assume and let's be honest, if you are accessing a political betting website at 10pm in the evening, you are not normal, myself included.
For all the twitter and social media frenzy of JC's supporters, the "silent majority" are likely to go with May, and in a big way.
https://twitter.com/paulnuttallukip/status/870020616807747585
You've had a Tory MP for all of 2 years, ya muppets....
Will the last person voting Conservative please turn out the lights
Glad you're here to make me feel better with your trains. I did the Leigh guided busway today. Slightly outside your usual idiom, but I'd recommend it. Comfier than the comfiest train, with a splendid view from the upstairs deck.
Does anyone actually believe etc etc etc
https://twitter.com/colettebrowne/status/870007849660817410
If so I'll cut Rudd a bit of slack.
Tessy otoh..
"Why's May not there"
"Biased audience and hecklers, why should she turn up for this shitshow"
That makes May look even worse.
Sorry but this is getting childish now.
On Local Elections Day, Labour did indeed have a lead in voteshare....
It's immensely difficult compared to say France where everyone just says who they'll actually vote for,
If Yougov are right, I'll be slashing my wrists.
Not a great time to get some news on Thanet, either.
But that's just me.
Its must less risky
I wasn't in the audience, though.