politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the day ICM gave the Tories a 12% lead, YouGov analysis has
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Just think if Farage was still leading UKIP there would be a real possibility of Con/UKIP Coalition government coming up...0
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Be fair. Any candidate who says anything other than "it's very close, your vote could make the difference!" is quite simply mad.Gallowgate said:
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
He will post again when the election is over; not before.0 -
Fidelitas in arduis, surely?Charles said:
Fidelis in ArduaCasino_Royale said:
I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.0 -
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.Chris said:
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!MarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
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Tbf, most polls show a Conservative majority. YouGov are going against not just ICM but most polls here with this.KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
And that VI intention doesn't point to a hung parliament either, btw.0 -
It is not house theft though. I accept that it has not been handled well but it is a genuine attempt to solve the social care crisis.Concanvasser said:
Agreed. The only way this sort of result could actually happen is if the oldies had shifted. They haven't on the basis of all the available evidence.bigjohnowls said:
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.
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I don't believe infiltrations. But as good a campaign as Labour have had, and as bad the Tories have had, and even assuming Corbyn and Labour are more popular than previous polls and and election results would indicate, this is too big a switch to believe.Chris said:
You mean they've been massively infiltrated in the period since they were showing the Tories 20 points ahead?Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
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Given not a single poll (bar possibly the one 5%) has suggested a hung parliament, and we are 9 days out, isam is right: 1/5 on Con majority is good value.
The poll consensus is a lead of 9% or so, and we know the Labour position is heavily reliant on high turnout from young voters.0 -
Or we could follow the Belgian model.GIN1138 said:
Maybe... But the people will have voted for a Parliament that is literally ungovernable whichever way you cut the numbers and at a time of national crisis (Brexit) so whether the people like it or not if we finish up with a result anywhere close to this we're going back to the polls in six to twelve months...KentRising said:
I think if there was yet another election the country would revolt. Brenda from Bristol said it best.GIN1138 said:0 -
Yougov know their members and when they joined, and a good deal about their geography.Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
It may simply be that voters don't like what they see of May and don't want her manifesto.
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Whatever impact, it won't be in the polling yet I'd have thought - most hits have been in the last 36 hours.Chris said:
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!MarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
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That's, perhaps, the most interesting part.The_Apocalypse said:
Tbf, most polls show a Conservative majority. YouGov are going against not just ICM but most polls here with this.KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
And that VI intention doesn't point to a hung parliament either, btw.
Maybe Labour's vote share is really efficient this time around?0 -
Even putting the YouGov model to one side - this is based on a 4% Con lead which is lower than every single other published poll.0
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We want Jason and Sean Tkle4 said:Where's Jason? He'll calm the PB Tories and anto-Corbynites down.
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YouGov/Times VI poll (conducted over the last week)
Con 42 (-1) Lab 38 (+2) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 4 (nc)
Changes from their Sunday Times poll.
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If they're doing that uniformly then, for one, it doesn't take into account how differently marginal seats are fought and contested compared to safe seats.Danny565 said:
I presume it means they're running the demographics of their national polls, and applying them to the demographics of each constituency.Casino_Royale said:
Eh?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Never been seen before!
I am posting on mobile and now in my PC in my £1m house paid for purely by myself!
Why is this poll rubbish posted on here!
We are 12% clear on ICM and 12% clear on ComRes! Game over Party like its 1987!!!!
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I do not know if the C4 News audience tonight was representative or not. But the oldies did not like Glumbucket one jot.Concanvasser said:
Agreed. The only way this sort of result could actually happen is if the oldies had shifted. They haven't on the basis of all the available evidence.bigjohnowls said:
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.0 -
Do you have the end date, so I can put it in the spreadsheet?TheScreamingEagles said:YouGov/Times VI poll (conducted over the last week)
Con 42 (-1) Lab 38 (+2) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 4 (nc)
Changes from their Sunday Times poll.0 -
YouGov. That is all.0
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If the polls continue to disagree so violently, you'll have given up all faith in polling full stop, will listen to the exit poll when in the past you might have thought "oh okay, I can go to bed now"... and be on such tenterhooks over whether it is reliable or not, that you'll be forced to stay up all night.jonny83 said:lol I had planned to not watch election night or only watch a little at the start. But if the polls continue to narrow then it's going to be a must watch.
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Most polls I've seen show the Conservatives leading with voters aged 45 and above.Danny565 said:
I presume it means they're running the demographics of their national polls, and applying them to the demographics of each constituency.Casino_Royale said:
Eh?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
People keep saying that the young people who are huge Corbynistas are concentrated in a few safe Labour seats -- but the reverse is also true of the Tory firewall of pensioners, the biggest numbers of them tend to be concentrated in seats which are already safe Tory.
Most polls now are showing that Labour leads with the middle-aged, and it's that age bracket which dominates in a lot of the marginal seats.0 -
I'd love to see a YouGov poll restricted to people who have been on their panel at least 2 years - just in case.....0
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TMICIPMTheScreamingEagles said:YouGov/Times VI poll (conducted over the last week)
Con 42 (-1) Lab 38 (+2) LD 9 (nc) UKIP 4 (nc)
Changes from their Sunday Times poll.0 -
A 4pt lead would produce much the same result as now. I suspect however there is not exact NEV for the model.numbertwelve said:
Suggesting a 4 point Tory lead.TheScreamingEagles said:The Times article is up
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/latest-general-election-poll-predicts-conservatives-will-lose-seats-02zfwl8lc
You can read the article for free if you register your email address.0 -
I would have thought 1/50 is good value...Quincel said:Given not a single poll (bar possibly the one 5%) has suggested a hung parliament, and we are 9 days out, isam is right: 1/5 on Con majority is good value.
The poll consensus is a lead of 9% or so, and we know the Labour position is heavily reliant on high turnout from young voters.0 -
To this extent? How often has it been shown that people tend to stick to their original positions, they would switch, in a manner of weeks, from suggesting a massive Tory lead to barely a lead and small to big Tory losses?foxinsoxuk said:
Yougov know their members and when they joined, and a good deal about their geography.Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
It may simply be that voters don't like what they see of May and don't want her manifesto.
A manifesto outright promising to eat the first born of every family wouldn't see such a switch.0 -
Corbyngasm?MikeL said:Even putting the YouGov model to one side - this is based on a 4% Con lead which is lower than every single other published poll.
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Lord Ashcroft Cons on 396 seats, Yougov Tories on 3100
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My forecast is still a Tory majority of around 60-100.
That's assuming gimp mask wearing Nick Timothy doesn't escape from the dungeon he's being kept in.0 -
In the last thread @Gallowgate asked a question. Given the kerfuffle about YouGov's seat model, you may be interested in the answer
Go on, have a guess. What are *all* the polling companies doing in 2017 (well, nearly) that only some did in 2016 EUREF and few in 2015 GE?Gallowgate said:So what is YouGov doing that Electoral Calculus, for example, isnt?
Yes, they are using models.
They have recruited some cheeky cherubs with MScs in Data Science or Machine Learning with new laptops that their Mum bought them, with R uploaded and wheeling thru the HighPerformanceComputing and MachineLearning views of CRAN. They're doing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, they're having a whale of a time, the clients are impressed, and that shit looks really good on your CV, trust me. You can point to stuff on screens. Woo.
There is one teeny problem.
Any model is dependent on assumptions about past behavior, and if those behaviors change (eg bigger than expected youth turnout) then the model is fucked. This isn't an abstract problem, it happened with ComRes and their Voter Turnout Model in 2016 EURef. So they've replaced something which isn't dependent (asking people about their Likelihood To Vote on a 1-10 scale) with something that is dependent (a voter turnout model)
On the specific case of YouGov, they're using another model to deduce seats from votes. Which is poling Pelion upon Ossa if you ask me: why in the name of Almighty God are they producing seat estimates at all?!
Pause.
I get a bit intense about this...
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It gives the Tories 338 seats, although Yougov must be projecting the Tories get votes where they don't benefit them.The_Apocalypse said:
Tbf, most polls show a Conservative majority. YouGov are going against not just ICM but most polls here with this.KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
And that VI intention doesn't point to a hung parliament either, btw.0 -
I think that would be wise.MarqueeMark said:I'd love to see a YouGov poll restricted to people who have been on their panel at least 2 years - just in case.....
But, it wouldn't explain why polls 4-6 weeks ago showed huge Tory leads.0 -
Yes that might be an interesting exercise.MarqueeMark said:I'd love to see a YouGov poll restricted to people who have been on their panel at least 2 years - just in case.....
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You could say that about ICM as well.RoyalBlue said:
What about voters who don't have internet access?TheScreamingEagles said:The model is based on 50,000 interviews over the course of a week, with voters from a panel brought together by YouGov. This allows the pollster to assess the intention of every type of voter, from where they live to how they voted in the EU referendum, their age and social background, to weight the results.
I have to say YouGov is taking a big risk.0 -
@BraddJaffy: WASHINGTON (AP) -- AP source: Ex-National Security Adviser Flynn will provide some documents under subpoena to Senate intelligence panel.0
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Hubris.Ave_it said:Never been seen before!
I am posting on mobile and now in my PC in my £1m house paid for purely by myself!
Why is this poll rubbish posted on here!
We are 12% clear on ICM and 12% clear on ComRes! Game over Party like its 1987!!!!0 -
Yet we are now living in times in which a 4% Tory lead doesn't sound out of the realms. The Tory lead has been continuing to shrink week on week, just at different rates depending on the pollster.MikeL said:Even putting the YouGov model to one side - this is based on a 4% Con lead which is lower than every single other published poll.
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If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Taking a gamble on people the only ones who will be right.viewcode said:In the last thread @Gallowgate asked a question. Given the kerfuffle about YouGov's seat model, you may be interested in the answer
Gallowgate said:So what is YouGov doing that Electoral Calculus, for example, isnt?
On the specific case of YouGov, they're using another model to deduce seats from votes. Which is poling Pelion upon Ossa if you ask me: why in the name of Almighty God are they producing seat estimates at all?!
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At this rate, Corbyn will be on course for an overall majority this time next week.TheScreamingEagles said:My forecast is still a Tory majority of around 60-100.
That's assuming gimp mask wearing Nick Timothy doesn't escape from the dungeon he's being kept in.0 -
Economy, economy, economy. Earlier, we had people bemoaning why JC was never attacked on this as in Woman's Hour. It is because the Cons no they have no good answers. Neither does Labour, but folk can see more of the same is not working. They will still win easily.kle4 said:
I still don't get why the same people would flock to Labour, even with all the gimmes and the positive vision. Not in such mass proportions, without any prior indication they were interested in doing so.williamglenn said:
My comment on June 24th last year:Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
"This is the February revolution. Sadly the people who instigated it are blind to the October revolution heading our way... "
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/comment/1131500/#Comment_11315000 -
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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4551956/Headless-body-floating-river-Kent.htmlTheScreamingEagles said:My forecast is still a Tory majority of around 60-100.
That's assuming gimp mask wearing Nick Timothy doesn't escape from the dungeon he's being kept in.0 -
Faithful in Hardship - our family mottoMyBurningEars said:
Fidelitas in arduis, surely?Charles said:
Fidelis in ArduaCasino_Royale said:
I am campaigning, and donating.RoyalBlue said:
I would not have expected such cowardice in the face of the enemy from you.Casino_Royale said:If this poll is even remotely true we are all completely fucked.
I would be looking for jobs overseas. Canada, probably, where I have family.
Get out there and campaign!
I'm talking about what I will do in the event of a Corbyn win.
Don't forget that the man who came up with it was the son of a second hand horse dealer...0 -
Also Momentum is encouraging people to click on Tory ads. They need to pay for each view.kyf_100 said:
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.Chris said:
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!MarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
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Such a model might work well for a one-off high-turnout national referendum, with a binary choice, but not for a differential turnout constituency-based General Election where both past voting intentions and loyalties are key.AndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.
The error could be huge.0 -
Neoliberal endorsement of Labour's Garden Tax. An enjoyable read.
https://capx.co/land-value-tax-is-a-great-idea-but-itll-never-happen/0 -
Still, in all this scatter-gun polling, there is one constant - the LibDems are fucked.0
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Someone at YouGov is either very courageous or on very good drugs. If I was the last port of call in the building before they flogged that to the Times, I'd ring them up and say the dog had eaten it.
Either that, or Corbyn has benefitted from a Brexit/Trump tidal wave of People Who Don't Do Politics. Almost certainly not the same one as 11 months ago. Mad.0 -
He didn't believe the model?AndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Surely, the key point there is "always" had Leave ahead?Scott_P said:
This is the first time it's shown the Conservatives behind the winning post, and up until a few weeks ago showed very solid leads.
An awful lot of Yougov panellists have either changed their minds, or firmed up, very very rapidly.0 -
The only explanation is like the Scot Ref, 5-10% of the voters who are always in the electoral register but never vote [ "they are all the same" ] may come out this time.TOPPING said:
Rump Lab support is one thing. But a surge?kle4 said:
But in polls and actual elections, there was no hint people were desperate for a Labour surge. May's crap, but nobody is that crap.TheScreamingEagles said:
It was, I pointed out Mrs May was crap.kle4 said:
Why was the genie not even close to visible a few weeks ago though!TheScreamingEagles said:I blame Brexit for this.
Genie is now out of the lamp.
Well why not? It's only going to affect the rich, right?
The first and only indication will be the turnout. If the turnout is 70-75%, anything is possible.
In GE2015 , not only 66% voted but it had the lowest turnout of 18-24 year olds.0 -
If you stick those numbers into Baxter, you get hardly any change in number of seats from 2015. Labour up less than 10.0
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I watched some of that, the old chestnut comment from one old dear "I used to vote Conservative but now after x or y" is so obviously coming from someone who was never a Tory makes programmes like that of little value. I have heard people say words similar to those for the last 25 years. The point being people who change vote like that are not normally so vocal and sometimes bitter. Its usually someone from an anti-tory party venting their distaste.surbiton said:
I do not know if the C4 News audience tonight was representative or not. But the oldies did not like Glumbucket one jot.Concanvasser said:
Agreed. The only way this sort of result could actually happen is if the oldies had shifted. They haven't on the basis of all the available evidence.bigjohnowls said:
No I agree.MarqueeMark said:Nobody - I mean NOBODY from ANY party - has suggested that that this matches anything they are seeing on the doorsteps.
Social Care house theft definitely not a game changer.0 -
Incidentally, Momentum are bringing out the big guns - just got an email from Noam Chomsky, inviting to go out knocking doors for Labour. Though given the email text seems pretty much the same as all the other ones they're emailing me, I think it's a safe bet Chomsky may only have contributed the picture of him that you can "Click the image above to pledge some time on June 8th."0
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See you 9 days time CasinoCasino_Royale said:
Hubris.Ave_it said:Never been seen before!
I am posting on mobile and now in my PC in my £1m house paid for purely by myself!
Why is this poll rubbish posted on here!
We are 12% clear on ICM and 12% clear on ComRes! Game over Party like its 1987!!!!
We are both on the same side let's enjoy it then0 -
Quite!AndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Because he was no longer working for YouGov then, so he wasn't seeing those figuresAndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
Maybe that'll be the shock of the election - all polls, be they labour surge or tory landslide, were bollocks as they missed the LDs actually doing well.MarqueeMark said:Still, in all this scatter-gun polling, there is one constant - the LibDems are fucked.
Why the hell not, in a situation where YouGov are saying this outcome is going to happen even though no Labour figure has seriously suggested such an outcome is possible?
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Just updated the thread header0
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I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.midwinter said:
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.0 -
Peter Kellner wasn't working for YouGov at the time of the Twitter spat: he'd retired at that point. This is why Stephan Shakespear went apeshit: Kellner was pissing in the tent from outside.AndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
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Yes. I'll be shitting myself at 9.59pm, again, just even more so than last time.Ave_it said:
See you 9 days time CasinoCasino_Royale said:
Hubris.Ave_it said:Never been seen before!
I am posting on mobile and now in my PC in my £1m house paid for purely by myself!
Why is this poll rubbish posted on here!
We are 12% clear on ICM and 12% clear on ComRes! Game over Party like its 1987!!!!
We are both on the same side let's enjoy it then0 -
I don't hear Bermondsey falling any more. Not in the last two weeks. Look out for a 10000 majority.midwinter said:0 -
Hahaha Ed! Love him.TGOHF said:0 -
Because he's a prize tit. Remember Ed Miliband PM back in 2015 ?AndyJS said:
If this model always had Leave ahead last year, why was Peter Kellner so confident that Remain would win, even after the first set of results had been declared?KentRising said:
Lol. That's it, I've given up on the polls. No one has a f-----g clue do they?The_Apocalypse said:According the Times article this was how they calculated their results:
YouGov used data from the Office of National Statistics, the British Election Study, and past election results. It then estimated the number of each type of voter in each constituency. Combining the model probabilities and estimated census counts allowed the pollster to produce what it hopes is a fairly accurate estimate of the number of voters in each constituency intending to vote for a party on each day.0 -
I believe each area is different NE Derbyshire has different issues building on green belt and fracking and Engel has played both issues very badly and I think will lose by at least 3000. Derby North canvass apparently much better than 2015. Chris Williamson could be a gain. Chesterfield increased majority. So in 2 of 3 areas YG could be right.Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
My gut says ICM is right though and TMICIPM0 -
This is fascinating.
I don't believe YouGov for a minute, but I do believe it increases the chance of (as someone put it upthread) a black swan. If Corbyn turns up to the debate and monsters Rudd, while Farron holds firm, the narrative could swing.0 -
Maybe he has a domino theory about seats toppling one by one for Labour, like his theory on how communism would sweep the world (It must have happened when I wasn't looking!).MyBurningEars said:Incidentally, Momentum are bringing out the big guns - just got an email from Noam Chomsky, inviting to go out knocking doors for Labour. Though given the email text seems pretty much the same as all the other ones they're emailing me, I think it's a safe bet Chomsky may only have contributed the picture of him that you can "Click the image above to pledge some time on June 8th."
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TP has been canvassingkle4 said:
Seems to be mostly on focus Tory messages, with the occasional 'great response on doorstep' stuff. He had a tough ask anyway. Even discounting this projection, it's impossible now.Gallowgate said:
What has Aaron being saying about Don Valley? Any chance of a win?Pulpstar said:Has Yougov had some serious Corbynista infiltration.
Seriously it goes against the positioning/canvassing of @HYUFD, Aaron, David Herdson, Big John Owls (NED lost, Lab resources back to Chesterfield), @MarqueeMark (Torbay Lib/Lab -> Con switchers), David Herdson (Yorkshire), Andrea Leadsom (Out to Bolsover), Chuka Ummuna (In Hyndburn), local elections, by-election models, leader ratings, my office...
It goes against EVERYTHING.
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/868832704997076992
but Caroline Flint has the team out times 3, and looks pretty chipper:
https://twitter.com/CarolineFlintMP/status/8689291541709865030 -
You all need to listen to JohnO0
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I am loathed to disbelieve a poll based on personal prejudice, so i will leave it to the next few polls for confirmation.0
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Will the EU be negotiating with an empty chair on the 19th of June? What if we don't have a government?0
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Me a Corbynista? Er, no.kle4 said:
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.0 -
The dominos start to fall on 9th June!The_Taxman said:
Maybe he has a domino theory about seats toppling one by one for Labour, like his theory on how communism would sweep the world (It must have happened when I wasn't looking!).MyBurningEars said:Incidentally, Momentum are bringing out the big guns - just got an email from Noam Chomsky, inviting to go out knocking doors for Labour. Though given the email text seems pretty much the same as all the other ones they're emailing me, I think it's a safe bet Chomsky may only have contributed the picture of him that you can "Click the image above to pledge some time on June 8th."
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"The model had been publicly tested during the EU referendum campaign last year when it always had Leave ahead"
If it was publicly tested where are results published?
How many models did they test? If someone tested (say) 10 models chances are that one of them would have predicted the result very well. But that wouldn't necessarily mean the model has good predictive power - if you throw enough darts one of them will hit the bullseye.0 -
I'd be surprised if YouGov were still forecasting a Hung Parliament on the eve of the election. In the meantime they've produced a humdinger of a headline for tomorrow's Times.0
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Danny565 said:
Eh? How would UNS point to the Tories increasing their seats, with just a 4-point lead (and thus a national swing against them)?Sean_F said:
It gives the Tories 338 seats, although Yougov must be projecting the Tories get votes where they don't benefit them.
The rumour I hear is that the Tories have 'turned the taps on' so to speak on paying to put this ad out. That means they are paying lots of money to put it in every facebook feed, at the start of every youtube clip, and so on, they can possibly buy.dixiedean said:
Also Momentum is encouraging people to click on Tory ads. They need to pay for each view.kyf_100 said:
Those are all paid views. Many if not most will be for 3 seconds or less. 4.3m is a crap number, it could easily be 400,000 people who check Facebook x10 a day.Chris said:
Perhaps it's actually boosting his popularity!MarqueeMark said:Meanwhile, THAT Corbyn IRA attack video has now been seen 4.377 million times.....
Far from the view count rising being a sign of strength, if this rumour were true then it could be a sign of weakness, in fact a sign of outright panic, at CCHQ.
To me the Tories are ramping up their ad spend in a way that looks panicky, although not yet outright desperate. My personal interpretation of the placement and frequency of attack ads suggests that CCHQ think (or at least worry) that this is going to be close.0 -
Sorry, this prediction has scrambled my wits.bobajobPB said:
Me a Corbynista? Er, no.kle4 said:
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Although if this thing is right, hundreds of thousands have turned into Corbynistas and aren't telling anyone else.0 -
Con + UKIP = 46. Andy JS won't like this one bit.0
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Yeah. My point is there are plenty of seats it's not impossible for Labour to gain . People seem to be very inert in accepting the Tories aren't doing as well as they should be. Rather reminiscent of Labours fabled ground game of 2015. We believe what we want to.Danny565 said:
I'm sticking with 4 Labour gains from Tories: Bury North, Cardiff North, Bristol North West, Brighton Kemptown.midwinter said:
Plus Leeds NW, Brighton Pavilion, East Lothian and Edinburgh North from other parties.0 -
He gives great Twitter. Natural born wit.The_Apocalypse said:
Hahaha Ed! Love him.TGOHF said:0 -
He did say TM needs to "raise her game" though...TheScreamingEagles said:You all need to listen to JohnO
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I can hear a drip-drip sound. It's coming from North Camden.0
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Some polls have had the Greens as low as 1%. IF they really do lose three-quarters of their support (and tbf there have been some polls showing them doing better, including ICM today), then it's hard to see that Brighton Pavilion would be immune to that.surbiton said:0 -
I have been on their panel for 5 years. I have been polled only once in the last year about four weeks ago. I understand they have 800k on the panel but even so.MarqueeMark said:I'd love to see a YouGov poll restricted to people who have been on their panel at least 2 years - just in case.....
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Wise words.TheScreamingEagles said:You all need to listen to JohnO
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Like the Trump supporters who wouldn't even admit it to their spouses?kle4 said:
Sorry, this prediction has scrambled my wits.bobajobPB said:
Me a Corbynista? Er, no.kle4 said:
Indeed. Hence why even you Corbynistas haven't been this optimistic. This would have to mean the middle aged or even the old Tory vote is hemorrhaging and no one else has noticed.bobajobPB said:YouGov. Cough. Does anyone believe this stuff? Really?
It's true that the young are in the tank for Corbyn (my office is unbelievable, the bizarre strength of Corbynism among posh, privately educated, twentysomething women) but there simply aren't enough of them in the right places, and many don't vote.
Although if this thing is right, hundreds of thousands have turned into Corbynistas and aren't telling anyone else.0 -
Seriously though, Labour have had a couple of rough patches in the last few days, as compared to their otherwise faultless campaign (barring Abbott's messes), if that has no impact in a day or so, start to panic.0
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No, you're conflating two thingsCasino_Royale said:
Surely, the key point there is "always" had Leave ahead?Scott_P said:
This is the first time it's shown the Conservatives behind the winning post, and up until a few weeks ago showed very solid leads.
An awful lot of Yougov panellists have either changed their minds, or firmed up, very very rapidly.
* the YouGov Voter Intention poll report
* the YouGov Seat Model
The former has been around for months. The latter went live (I think) last week.
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Thinking about it - if this methodology was right for the referendum it was only right because of the high turnout.
So I suspect its wrong simply because a lot of people aren't going to get out and vote...
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