@JGForsyth: Word in Labour circles is that Corbyn is planning to do the BBC election debate tomorrow night. Will pit him against Amber Rudd plus others
With news like this projection to encourage the faithful, why the hell not? Apparently even if he has a bad few days the Labour vote doesn't go down anymore, heck even with ICM it was up, albeit just by 1.
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
The article says the methodology is based on constituencies but was road tested in the Referendum,. It always had Leave winning.
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
She didn't mean it, clearly. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently voting explicitly for a slightly lower standard of living in return for more sovereignty and lower immigration.
The Baby Boomers are voting themselves one last blast of privilege and champagne whilst handing the bill to those following them
Yet they are worst off under the Tories' plan.
Are they? The vast majority of them will not go into care. About 1 in 3 do so.
So, the probability of either one of your two grandfathers or one of your two grandmothers going into residential care is ... err ... very substantial. Odds on.
Almost every family in the land will be touched by this as life expectancy has increased inexorably.
And indeed, talking to my 12 year old daughter confirms that almost all her schoolfriends have a granny with dementia or an aunt with Parkinson’s.
This is not some remote possibility, as you seemingly envision.
If I were a betting man...
Within 20 years neurodegenerative diseases will be entirely preventable. There will be a bolus of sufferers to be managed on a chronic basis but the flow of incoming patients will have been stemmed
So those of us just passed 40 should be ok, right?
More than OK, if Charles can get us in at the ground floor with the relevant pharma start-ups.
Wouldn't recommend it. It's a hell of lot of risk.
I did it to help a friend (and because he is very very connected into the US elite, where historically we've been relatively patch). Otherwise should only be done as a small part of a portfolio
@JGForsyth: Word in Labour circles is that Corbyn is planning to do the BBC election debate tomorrow night. Will pit him against Amber Rudd plus others
Laura K on BBC1 10pm said big picture was that even most pessimistic Con insider and most optimistic Lab insider didn't think that big picture had changed and were still expecting Con win of some sort.
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
The article says the methodology is based on constituencies but was road tested in the Referendum,. It always had Leave winning.
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
But Kippers ARE going Tory - from my experience on the doorstep at least. What's yours?
She didn't mean it, clearly. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently voting explicitly for a slightly lower standard of living in return for more sovereignty and lower immigration.
The Baby Boomers are voting themselves one last blast of privilege and champagne whilst handing the bill to those following them
Yet they are worst off under the Tories' plan.
Are they? The vast majority of them will not go into care. About 1 in 3 do so.
So, the probability of either one of your two grandfathers or one of your two grandmothers going into residential care is ... err ... very substantial. Odds on.
Almost every family in the land will be touched by this as life expectancy has increased inexorably.
And indeed, talking to my 12 year old daughter confirms that almost all her schoolfriends have a granny with dementia or an aunt with Parkinson’s.
This is not some remote possibility, as you seemingly envision.
If I were a betting man...
Within 20 years neurodegenerative diseases will be entirely preventable. There will be a bolus of sufferers to be managed on a chronic basis but the flow of incoming patients will have been stemmed
So those of us just passed 40 should be ok, right?
More than OK, if Charles can get us in at the ground floor with the relevant pharma start-ups.
Repurposing has a very patchy track record. In theory it's great; in practice it tends to be academics with a pet theory. IP is always weak as well, so difficult to finance privately.
Tbf I don't blame her not trusting John 'I'm a Marxist' McDonnell. Most Labour MPs would never go down any extreme economic plan but McDonnell.....
Fear not. Jezza is a great believer in the restorative and contemplative value of gardening. He wants gardening for the many not the few.
My mum and grandad are already lovers of gardening.
Don't think I'll ever be into it, though.
When I think of gardening, I think of two things:
(a. Gardners World (b. Alan Titchmarsh.
I love gardening, almost as much as Dr Sunil's mum, though with less spectacular results.
I enjoy the therapeutic aspects of getting my hands dirty, and the garden is literally crawling with wildlife - which is what I garden for, rather than spectacular vistas, in the limited space available. My latest wheeze is building little tunnels underground, capped by old plant pots, then inspecting the network every couple of days to see how many amphibians have headed for the shade. Much the same anticipation as opening the windows on the advent calendar, great fun.
And with if you change things about in the garden in particular, you do see something new every year - this summer I saw a smooth newt mating dance for the first time. If only they had little moustaches. Ken would've loved it.
She didn't mean it, clearly. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently voting explicitly for a slightly lower standard of living in return for more sovereignty and lower immigration.
The Baby Boomers are voting themselves one last blast of privilege and champagne whilst handing the bill to those following them
Yet they are worst off under the Tories' plan.
Are they? The vast majority of them will not go into care. About 1 in 3 do so.
So, the probability of either one of your two grandfathers or one of your two grandmothers going into residential care is ... err ... very substantial. Odds on.
Almost every family in the land will be touched by this as life expectancy has increased inexorably.
And indeed, talking to my 12 year old daughter confirms that almost all her schoolfriends have a granny with dementia or an aunt with Parkinson’s.
This is not some remote possibility, as you seemingly envision.
If I were a betting man...
Within 20 years neurodegenerative diseases will be entirely preventable. There will be a bolus of sufferers to be managed on a chronic basis but the flow of incoming patients will have been stemmed
That's a bold claim. There will be something else for which care is required. So the problem remains. I am sure much of old age will be mitigated, but it will not go away.
Some of the science in this field is mind blowing.
Not literally, obviously...
Won't happen. The science is concentrating on the wrong thing.
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
The article says the methodology is based on constituencies but was road tested in the Referendum,. It always had Leave winning.
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
I did read the article - it says the poll has a wide margin of error and room for huge variation.
They need to tell us though what constituencies are going to Labour and what one's the Tories are losing.
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
The article says the methodology is based on constituencies but was road tested in the Referendum,. It always had Leave winning.
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
Who will be the first Muppet to write an article after the election claiming the outcome was obvious from the start?
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
The article says the methodology is based on constituencies but was road tested in the Referendum,. It always had Leave winning.
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
Why would it be "hilarious"?
Is your spite for the party you voted for in GE2010 now so great you would applaud such a destructive outcome?
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Somebody once said I was the wrong kind of BAME because I had been privately educated and grew up in a nice part of the country, rather than on a council estate.
Strewth! Even I was educated thanks to a charity and grew up on an estate...
So what is YouGov doing that Electoral Calculus, for example, isnt?
Go on, have a guess. What are *all* the polling companies doing in 2017 (well, nearly) that only some did in 2016 EUREF and few in 2015 GE?
Yes, they are using models.
They have recruited some cheeky cherubs with MScs in Data Science or Machine Learning with new laptops that their Mum bought them, with R uploaded and wheeling thru the HighPerformanceComputing and MachineLearning views of CRAN. They're doing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, they're having a whale of a time, the clients are impressed, and that shit looks really good on your CV, trust me. You can point to stuff on screens. Woo.
There is one teeny problem.
Any model is dependent on assumptions about past behavior, and if those behaviors change (eg bigger than expected youth turnout) then the model is fucked. This isn't an abstract problem, it happened with ComRes and their Voter Turnout Model in 2016. So they've replaced something which isn't dependent (asking people about their Likelihood To Vote on a 1-10 scale) with something that is dependent (a voter turnout model)
On the specific case of YouGov, they're using another model to deduce seats from votes. Which is poling Pelion upon Ossa if you ask me: why in the name of God are they producing seat estimates at all?!
The one aspect which is wholly unfair and in my view entirely unacceptable is the fact that the Scots receive so-called Social Care without paying so much as a brass farthing, whilst the English and Welsh face having to pay as much as tens of thousands for their care ..... where's the equity in that? The massively generous Barnett formula give-aways simply cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely.
I agree but needs to be done in context of a constitutional settlement otherwise it's "evil Tories robbing our bairns of their future"
It certainly needs multi-party agreement and to achieve that will probably need to be phased over a 15-20 year period, so that the Scots gradually got used to paying for Social Care, Prescriptions, Winter Fuel Allowance, University Fees, etc., etc, etc., just like the rest of us.
Comments
My hunch is that kippers are not going Tory, and neither are Remainers.
I dont believe it, but it will be hilarious if it happens. Bring on the Coalition of Chaos!
I did it to help a friend (and because he is very very connected into the US elite, where historically we've been relatively patch). Otherwise should only be done as a small part of a portfolio
I enjoy the therapeutic aspects of getting my hands dirty, and the garden is literally crawling with wildlife - which is what I garden for, rather than spectacular vistas, in the limited space available. My latest wheeze is building little tunnels underground, capped by old plant pots, then inspecting the network every couple of days to see how many amphibians have headed for the shade. Much the same anticipation as opening the windows on the advent calendar, great fun.
And with if you change things about in the garden in particular, you do see something new every year - this summer I saw a smooth newt mating dance for the first time. If only they had little moustaches. Ken would've loved it.
They need to tell us though what constituencies are going to Labour and what one's the Tories are losing.
Is your spite for the party you voted for in GE2010 now so great you would applaud such a destructive outcome?
Yes, they are using models.
They have recruited some cheeky cherubs with MScs in Data Science or Machine Learning with new laptops that their Mum bought them, with R uploaded and wheeling thru the HighPerformanceComputing and MachineLearning views of CRAN. They're doing Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, they're having a whale of a time, the clients are impressed, and that shit looks really good on your CV, trust me. You can point to stuff on screens. Woo.
There is one teeny problem.
Any model is dependent on assumptions about past behavior, and if those behaviors change (eg bigger than expected youth turnout) then the model is fucked. This isn't an abstract problem, it happened with ComRes and their Voter Turnout Model in 2016. So they've replaced something which isn't dependent (asking people about their Likelihood To Vote on a 1-10 scale) with something that is dependent (a voter turnout model)
On the specific case of YouGov, they're using another model to deduce seats from votes. Which is poling Pelion upon Ossa if you ask me: why in the name of God are they producing seat estimates at all?!
Pause.
I get a bit intense about this...