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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Youth and experience. Turnout among 18-24 year olds and past non-voters
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I got my first real six-string
Bought it at the five-and-dime
Played it till my fingers bled
Was the summer of '69
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/869590303426191364
But look further at the data tweeted by Matthew Goodwin. Also look at the turnout levels across the age groups from 1964 from Britain Elects..
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/869480757395427328
I will take the opportunity to repeat my caution about 18-24 turnout figures; the official data are never correct for this age group. Many of the prospective voters in this group are students who may be registered in two locations. If they only vote once then the highest turnout rate for this subset is 50%. There must be some statistics suggesting what proportion of this age group are students (I would guess around 40%) and so they will never get to 82% turnout even if they all go out and do their democratic duty.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/869125783008292869
Actual attendance was about 8%.
It is surely blindingly obvious that asking people whether they'll do something that "looks good / the right thing to do" is absolutely bound to lead to overstatement.
The key figure to look for is the total electorate - because if there is to be a big surge in actual young turnout (as % of young population) it will have to be on the back of a big increase in registrations.
I don't think the Electoral Commission has yet announced the final electorate number?
Almost every family in the land will be touched by this as life expectancy has increased inexorably.
And indeed, talking to my 12 year old daughter confirms that almost all her schoolfriends have a granny with dementia or an aunt with Parkinson’s.
This is not some remote possibility, as you seemingly envision.
It was pretty stable for a long time. What is wrong with the generation immediately preceding mine? (and my own)
I'm not so sure about this. None of us on here (okay, maybe one or two) can remember WW2, but we wouldn't think it acceptable for a party to tolerate holocaust deniers.
That's not to say that Northern Ireland is comparable, but to say that it's acceptable for youngsters to not care about history because it was a long time ago is a cop-out.
And an excellent thread, thank you Alastair.
https://twitter.com/theJeremyVine/status/869624820031422464
On a related note - has anyone estimated the effect of Labour's policies on the Barnett formula? If Labour are proposing to shift the cost of many services from individuals to the state, will this not feed through into Barnett consequentials? eg. Tuition fees which at the moment Scotland have to pay for themselves because isn't something that the Government fund in England.
Whats the truth? I can no longer canvass so I have no idea of what's on the ground, and in any event,my MP is 100% certain to win so judgement is v difficult.
But it will not be this election.
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/869600294979678208
This isn't a national referendum, like the indyref, or EU ref, it all comes down to seats.
The limits in Scotland seem to be the same as the limits in the rest of the UK
https://tinyurl.com/y9eqt5wc
If you have dementia and assets of more than 26,500, then I think you’re probably paying your care home fees yourself in Scotland.
Happy to be corrected if any resident of Scotland knows differently.
I'm nearly as old as Alastair, and although I *recall* the Falklands and the latter half of the IRA campaign, they (happily) weren't something which affected me or my family directly apart from a few inconvenient road closures for bomb threats when I worked in London in the 90s. I probably have a better knowledge of current affairs and modern history than most, and even for me, an image of hippy Corbyn in his mum's homemade jumper on a Republican march doesn't make me squirm with revulsion. I understand why it has more resonance for people ten years older. I respect that, but it doesn't bring out the same visceral, emotional "how could anyone support him?" reaction, and I suspect that will limit how much mud sticks.
I should imagine it was the same for young people in the sixties and seventies... wondering why a generation above them would sooner spit on a Japanese or German person than collaborate and compete in the modern world.
At the same time (Woman's Hour aside), I think he's played a blinder turning his image from a grouchy lefty nerd into a competent human being in time for this campaign. Smiling on the One Show and playing along with the family photo stuff will attract as many as honouring IRA killers will repulse. Maybe unfair; maybe a poor reflection on society. But I think that combination is behind the narrowing in the polls.
(I'd also agree we shouldn't get carried away and that we're still talking about reducing the Tory landslide to just a solid win!)
Poster news: One poster spotted in King's Lynn - for Labour. Socialism sweeping the flatlands!
Laters...
If you are a Labour Leave voter in Bolsover why on earth would you vote for another MP when Skinner already ticks both boxes?
It operated under the Coalition, and under Cameron & Osborne and (now it seems) under Salmond and Sturgeon in Scotland.
If you have assets more than 26,500, you are usually paying the entirety of your care home fees yourself.
For some reason, Theresa suggested some modest improvements to a very sh1tty system, and was immediately blamed by everyone.
Labour & the LibDems and the SNP were apparently unaware that they had been operating a dementia tax all the years they were in power.
And 18m 65+ yrs @ 75% turnout at 70%* Con = 9.45m votes.
So the differential impact for older voters is about 4.5-fold.
*roughly according to recent polls.
Even more ironically, according to the earlier thread showing 19% Lab support in the 65+, there are more Lab voters in this group numerically, than in the young.
2. And even if they do understand, I still think there's a difference between the emotional "sick to the stomach, never in a million years" response and someone who's judged history in the round with current events. Neither response is wrong; both are real.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/articles/overviewoftheukpopulation/mar2017
PA: Britain's food industry will struggle to export to Australia post-Brexit as its products "will go off", Labour's Emily Thornberry.
Loads of people have now been a) exposed to what a tricky situation the current system is b) proposed an alternative, with no prep of the ground, whereby inheritance is lost and, crucially, people instinctively feel they have lost control of their own homes.
It what happens when a policy wonk gets to decide a major event in the middle of a GE without any input from politicians.
Not sure why fox hunting is mentioned, but I would have appreciated the presence of foxhounds as a fox cub was rooting around the garden by the kitchen door last night. Plenty of material on education, social and health care but no ideas about how to pay for it. Absolutely sweet FA for those not employed by the public sector. Thangam Debboinare is not in favour of another EU referendum unlike her Green or LD opponents.
No sign of Tory material either as mailshot or delivery by hand. There is a local BBC TV debate of sorts tonight.
Edit: I'm watching on +1
https://twitter.com/jantalipinski/status/869608716605292544
Dennis Skinner, Sailing Close to the Wind page 246.
That doesn't apply now, following individual voter registration students are routinely taken off their home electoral roll if they register elsewhere, of course they can apply to be put back on. I've come across this multiple times now during the local elections (where the are actually fully entitled to vote at both home and their place of study ).
Theresa May essentially addressing the nation. Not seen a PPB like that before?
I am pleased that I won’t have to deal with the social care system in this country for a few decades. I am very sorry for those who will have to.
Because they are in for a very unpleasant time. And that it is the only reason why I post on the subject.
I am not interested in political point scoring on such a matter. It is too important.
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=1997+conservative+party+political+broadcast+john+major&view=detail&mid=75DA83AE83AFA56F59E475DA83AE83AFA56F59E4&FORM=VIRE
Within 20 years neurodegenerative diseases will be entirely preventable. There will be a bolus of sufferers to be managed on a chronic basis but the flow of incoming patients will have been stemmed
Perhaps I should vote for Corbyn - would keep the countryside green as everyone emigrates
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlZMORFyS7U
I'm hoping Dimbleby puts a four in front of the Tories seat number in the exit poll...
First they came for Laura Kussenberg.
Even if it was a fox, I don't think the irritation involved in the incident is enough to make me want to board a horse and set a lot of dogs on the foxes of Sale in revenge. There aren't many votes in fox hunting outside of safe, safe Tory seats in the countryside. And quite a lot of votes in not-fox hunting.
I've known for longer than that that it could cost everything we have bar 26k
I'm not sure why people were so ignorant of the current state of affairs and some still seem to be so
Are there any figures on how many people currently having care at home would now have to use there assets rather than just their income?
Whilst the proposed solution is maybe not ideal it is for most better than the current situation although I think that it should not be treated differently
From "health" issues and the real answer is that if you believe in free at the point of delivery we have to all pay up front
Not literally, obviously...
On the LVT debate - I found this article comprehensive & interesting;
https://www.ft.com/content/392c33a6-211f-11e3-8aff-00144feab7de
And on a very different issue - this piece is challenging for a liberal like me;
http://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/after-manchester-the-u-k-weighs-security-and-freedoms
I think it overstates the case. From the info in the public domain, May appears to have acted proportionately after Manchester.
What do others who consider themselves to be on the liberal side of the debate, think?
The one aspect which is wholly unfair and in my view entirely unacceptable is the fact that the Scots receive so-called Social Care without paying so much as a brass farthing, whilst the English and Welsh face having to pay as much as tens of thousands for their care ..... where's the equity in that? The massively generous Barnett formula give-aways simply cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely.