Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Somebody once said I was the wrong kind of BAME because I had been privately educated and grew up in a nice part of the country, rather than on a council estate.
Know your place, TSE.
It's the same reason why some Islamophobes hate/obsess about me.
I'm the living embodiment of everything they think a Muslim can't be.
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
So it only counts if the BAME isn't a Conservative?!
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
So it only counts if the BAME isn't a Conservative?!
Didn't say that. Just said that a BAME Conservative is atypical given that most BAME voters lean Labour.
Whereas this isn't necessarily the case in regards to women/older women and Thatcher/May.
Tbf I don't blame her not trusting John 'I'm a Marxist' McDonnell. Most Labour MPs would never go down any extreme economic plan but McDonnell.....
Fear not. Jezza is a great believer in the restorative and contemplative value of gardening. He wants gardening for the many not the few.
My mum and grandad are already lovers of gardening.
Don't think I'll ever be into it, though.
When I think of gardening, I think of two things:
(a. Gardners World (b. Alan Titchmarsh.
You have to have your own before it becomes a pleasure rather than a chore.
Initially I was a conscript rather than a volunteer, but gradually the pleasure of nurturing plants into bloom takes over. Mine is an indoor job and involves constant human contact. The fresh air and solitude, even the slugs and rain, are a restorative. The pleasure of gardening is a primeval spiritual urge. Gardens feature in cultural and religious mythology, from the garden of Eden onwards.
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
So it only counts if the BAME isn't a Conservative?!
Didn't say that. Just said that a BAME Conservative is atypical given that most BAME voters lean Labour.
Whereas this isn't necessarily the case in regards to women/older women and Thatcher/May.
After a few days of Labour for the first time in the campaign having sustained poor moments? Gods, nothing is stopping the Labour surge, I honestly do not know what people are and are not responding to if that is what the numbers are showing.
BBC 10pm news terrible for Corbyn, a full minute of him unable to say how much a key childcare policy would cost and fiddling about with his ipad and notepad looking like he was trying to find it
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
So it only counts if the BAME isn't a Conservative?!
Didn't say that. Just said that a BAME Conservative is atypical given that most BAME voters lean Labour.
Whereas this isn't necessarily the case in regards to women/older women and Thatcher/May.
So what?
It was a response to a post saying that as Thatcher/May were said to be the 'wrong' kind of woman, so the first BAME Conservative PM will be said to be the 'wrong' kind of BAME. I interpreted 'wrong' to mean unrepresentative, so I argued that May/Thatcher were representative of their demographics while a BAME Conservative is unlikely to be so.
Talking of BME talent in the conservative party, has anybody else noticed, Kemi Badenoch, she is a London AM at the moment standing to be an MP in a safe seat this time. Very good presentations skills, highly intelligent. Seems to be libertarian leaning at hart that know how to present things in a way that keeps the social conservatives on side to. I don't what to jinks her in 10 to 20 years I could see her in high office.
Just as May and Thatcher were the wrong kind of women to be the first two female PM's, if the Tories do get the first BAME PM I'm sure they will also be the wrong kind of BAME.
Tbf, when Thatcher was PM most women were Tories.
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
So it only counts if the BAME isn't a Conservative?!
Didn't say that. Just said that a BAME Conservative is atypical given that most BAME voters lean Labour.
Whereas this isn't necessarily the case in regards to women/older women and Thatcher/May.
So what?
It was a response to a post saying that as Thatcher/May were said to be the 'wrong' kind of woman, so the first BAME Conservative PM will be said to be the 'wrong' kind of BAME. I interpreted 'wrong' to mean unrepresentative, so I argued that May/Thatcher were representative of their demographics while a BAME Conservative is unlikely to be so.
Oh well I don't think people mean that else they wouldn't say Thatcher was the wrong kind of woman (which they do/did). They said she was the wrong kind of woman because she wasn't a raging feminist, and no doubt the first BAME PM, if a Conservative, will be called all sorts by lefties, who will excuse themselves by saying its cos he or she is a Tory
Talking of BME talent in the conservative party, has anybody else noticed, Kemi Badenoch, she is a London AM at the moment standing to be an MP in a safe seat this time. Very good presentations skills, highly intelligent. Seems to be libertarian leaning at hart that know how to present things in a way that keeps the social conservatives on side to. I don't what to jinks her in 10 to 20 years I could see her in high office.
If you believed Yougov Ed Miliband would be PM and Remain would have won EU ref, Comres got the last general election result far more accurately and ICM had Leave ahead in its final referendum poll
A full 57 seats higher than what I thought their ceiling would be. Seems implausible, but then it being raised as a possibility in the first place seemed implausible.
given that the tories have been consistently in the mid 40s, there's a disconnect between labour vote shares some are as low as 32 recently and others are as high as 38. I still think that there will be some serious egg on face for some pollsters.
I think that JC has energised his supporters and the 'shy tory' effect has come back into play. These polls are overstating labour as has been the case for 25 years.
given that the tories have been consistently in the mid 40s, there's a disconnect between labour vote shares some are as low as 32 recently and others are as high as 38. I still think that there will be some serious egg on face for some pollsters.
I think that JC has energised his supporters and the 'shy tory' effect has come back into play. These polls are overstating labour as has been the case for 25 years.
given that the tories have been consistently in the mid 40s, there's a disconnect between labour vote shares some are as low as 32 recently and others are as high as 38. I still think that there will be some serious egg on face for some pollsters.
I think that JC has energised his supporters and the 'shy tory' effect has come back into play. These polls are overstating labour as has been the case for 25 years.
The massive problem I see with this whole line of thinking is that it implies Brexit will be an issue in Bolsover. Why should it when Skinner himself was pro-Brexit?
If you are a Labour Leave voter in Bolsover why on earth would you vote for another MP when Skinner already ticks both boxes?
Brexit is not what I read into that, I read identity. It will be a test of how off-putting Corbyn is to that demographic.
Did Skinner not take most of the same policy positions as Corbyn on Falklands, Ireland etc?
Indeed I'm not at all saying it will work, all i'm pointing out there are reasons the Conservatives might fancy their chances.
I guess the point you're making is that Labour, Skinner have both taken Bolsover for granted and if there is an identity issue then will they have the electoral data to resist. Sort of like Scotland 2015. Having been to Bolsover a few times (brilliant castle, rest of it er...), I think it improbable that he'll lose but let's see.
Bolsover is the antithesis of Metropolitan Labour. But apart from sharing a spot nominally on the far left of the party, so is Skinner. He'll hold his seat.
Bolsover is the UK centre of satanism. Apparently.
Talking of BME talent in the conservative party, has anybody else noticed, Kemi Badenoch, she is a London AM at the moment standing to be an MP in a safe seat this time. Very good presentations skills, highly intelligent. Seems to be libertarian leaning at hart that know how to present things in a way that keeps the social conservatives on side to. I don't what to jinks her in 10 to 20 years I could see her in high office.
Chosen virtually unanimously by the SW Con Assocn vs two CCHQ parachutists, one a May aide. Engineer & lawyer, mother of two, Jockish (I think) husband. Waiting for Jeremy to unlock her potential, obvs.
Roll on next Thursday eve so we can find out who is right.
there's going to be some serious egg on face for some of the pollsters wrt the labour vote share. both 32 and 38 can't both be in the margin of error can they?
My computer literally crashed within a minute of this projection being recorded - the prospect of a Corbyn success, in whatever form, is already ruining things!
The massive problem I see with this whole line of thinking is that it implies Brexit will be an issue in Bolsover. Why should it when Skinner himself was pro-Brexit?
If you are a Labour Leave voter in Bolsover why on earth would you vote for another MP when Skinner already ticks both boxes?
Brexit is not what I read into that, I read identity. It will be a test of how off-putting Corbyn is to that demographic.
Did Skinner not take most of the same policy positions as Corbyn on Falklands, Ireland etc?
Indeed I'm not at all saying it will work, all i'm pointing out there are reasons the Conservatives might fancy their chances.
I guess the point you're making is that Labour, Skinner have both taken Bolsover for granted and if there is an identity issue then will they have the electoral data to resist. Sort of like Scotland 2015. Having been to Bolsover a few times (brilliant castle, rest of it er...), I think it improbable that he'll lose but let's see.
Bolsover is the antithesis of Metropolitan Labour. But apart from sharing a spot nominally on the far left of the party, so is Skinner. He'll hold his seat.
Bolsover is the UK centre of satanism. Apparently.
The one aspect which is wholly unfair and in my view entirely unacceptable is the fact that the Scots receive so-called Social Care without paying so much as a brass farthing, whilst the English and Welsh face having to pay as much as tens of thousands for their care ..... where's the equity in that? The massively generous Barnett formula give-aways simply cannot be allowed to continue indefinitely.
I agree but needs to be done in context of a constitutional settlement otherwise it's "evil Tories robbing our bairns of their future"
It certainly needs multi-party agreement and to achieve that will probably need to be phased over a 15-20 year period, so that the Scots gradually got used to paying for Social Care, Prescriptions, Winter Fuel Allowance, University Fees, etc., etc, etc., just like the rest of us.
@JGForsyth: Word in Labour circles is that Corbyn is planning to do the BBC election debate tomorrow night. Will pit him against Amber Rudd plus others
She didn't mean it, clearly. Everyone who votes Tory is apparently voting explicitly for a slightly lower standard of living in return for more sovereignty and lower immigration.
The Baby Boomers are voting themselves one last blast of privilege and champagne whilst handing the bill to those following them
Yet they are worst off under the Tories' plan.
Are they? The vast majority of them will not go into care. About 1 in 3 do so.
So, the probability of either one of your two grandfathers or one of your two grandmothers going into residential care is ... err ... very substantial. Odds on.
Almost every family in the land will be touched by this as life expectancy has increased inexorably.
And indeed, talking to my 12 year old daughter confirms that almost all her schoolfriends have a granny with dementia or an aunt with Parkinson’s.
This is not some remote possibility, as you seemingly envision.
If I were a betting man...
Within 20 years neurodegenerative diseases will be entirely preventable. There will be a bolus of sufferers to be managed on a chronic basis but the flow of incoming patients will have been stemmed
So those of us just passed 40 should be ok, right?
Why do you think I am so focused on this area of research...?
given that the tories have been consistently in the mid 40s, there's a disconnect between labour vote shares some are as low as 32 recently and others are as high as 38. I still think that there will be some serious egg on face for some pollsters.
I think that JC has energised his supporters and the 'shy tory' effect has come back into play. These polls are overstating labour as has been the case for 25 years.
If we can squeeze half of the sandal-wearers, then it is 43-43.
Channeling my inner King Kev, I would love it if we can deprive May of a majority.
Playing around with Baxter. To get a CON short by 17 required:
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
that's a serious polling miss. especially since the tories have been on over 43% since the start of the GE
Yes, the Conservative VI has been the one consistent in this campaign. YouGov hasn't explained how/why their projections are showing a drop in the Conservative VI.
So what do we believe? Tories losing majority or a gap of 12%?
This is getting silly.
Quite so - the pollsters do not appear to be herding to share in any failure together, they are going big and bold with competing visions.
I can see the appeal in much of the Labour manifesto. I can see the appeal in some of what Corbyn represents (for some people at any rate). It would be churlish to deny they have had a good campaign and they have had a swelling in support.
But the fundamentals as they existed going into this campaign, when the Tories were leagues ahead and Labour were losing seats in every country of this United Kingdom, simply does not make any sense with the idea they will net gain seats, significantly. People change their support, swiftly sometimes. But so many, so swiftly?
Comments
Most older women are also Tories now (with May as PM).
However, most BAME voters simply don't vote Conservative and I don't see that dramatically changing for the foreseeable future. So by definition, to be a BAME 'Conservative' is to be very different from other BAME voters.
I'm the living embodiment of everything they think a Muslim can't be.
To think they called him 'Red Ed' for five years in a row.
Whereas this isn't necessarily the case in regards to women/older women and Thatcher/May.
Initially I was a conscript rather than a volunteer, but gradually the pleasure of nurturing plants into bloom takes over. Mine is an indoor job and involves constant human contact. The fresh air and solitude, even the slugs and rain, are a restorative. The pleasure of gardening is a primeval spiritual urge. Gardens feature in cultural and religious mythology, from the garden of Eden onwards.
https://twitter.com/ptr_yeung/status/869659701151244289
Someone's wrong.
Those attack ads are pushing more people to Labour!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvHX_KIvGBM
TMICIPM in hung Parliament!!!
Your money is safe BTW
given that the tories have been consistently in the mid 40s, there's a disconnect between labour vote shares some are as low as 32 recently and others are as high as 38. I still think that there will be some serious egg on face for some pollsters.
I think that JC has energised his supporters and the 'shy tory' effect has come back into play. These polls are overstating labour as has been the case for 25 years.
YouGov need to explain what seats are swinging to Labour (and against the Tories).
Not covinced tbh.
scrap that he's retweeting an old poll just after the original seat projections.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/ampp3d/your-area-satanic-capital-britain-5046632
@AndyJS You serious?
Con 38, Lab 40
That's with LD 10, UKIP 4, GRN 2, and using the recent Scottish poll.
Who thinks that'll happen?
This is getting silly.
Why do you think I am so focused on this area of research...?
Channeling my inner King Kev, I would love it if we can deprive May of a majority.
I can see the appeal in much of the Labour manifesto. I can see the appeal in some of what Corbyn represents (for some people at any rate). It would be churlish to deny they have had a good campaign and they have had a swelling in support.
But the fundamentals as they existed going into this campaign, when the Tories were leagues ahead and Labour were losing seats in every country of this United Kingdom, simply does not make any sense with the idea they will net gain seats, significantly. People change their support, swiftly sometimes. But so many, so swiftly?
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