politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down t
Comments
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We shall not let them change our way of lifeTheScreamingEagles said:
Bugger.TGOHF said:
I see Kiss cancelled the Manchester gig.TheScreamingEagles said:
I hope Andrew Neil asks Corbyn how opposing the Anglo-Irish agreement helped bring peace to Northern Ireland.DaemonBarber said:I don't think the Andrew Neil interview tonight will help the Tories out much either...
Understandable, Take That cancelled their gigs too.0 -
I don't think Labour will be losing the Esher-Walton seat as a result.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Is that his patch?TheScreamingEagles said:
I've found it wise never to disagree with JohnO.Scrapheap_as_was said:
You say interesting... I say causality.... an oracle of PB.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting that Spreadex are in line with JohnO's observation.
Did I see one of his Labour opponents has been suspended from the party?
As for the suspension, no idea.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-suspends-esher-walton-vice-chairman-daniel-ewen-manchester-bombing-comments_uk_5927fb16e4b01b9a593808ac0 -
A little light Scotland Turnout noodling
In 2015 the YouGov eve of Election poll had 10/10 Certain to Vote = 83%
Broken down by party
Con=91%
Lab=89%
LD=80%
SNP=89%
IN 2017 the Latest YouGov has 10/10 Certain to vote = 68%
Con=88%
Lab=78%
LD=84%
SNP=80%
2015 Actual Turnout = 71%
So it looks like turnout will be well down and that the Cons are going ot hugely benefit from differential turnout.
However the big change is Would Not Vote and Don't Know. In 2015 the figure was 9%, currently it sits at 26%. In 2015 this far out it was 12%.
There is a huge mass of people who have not made up their minds. They will be critical.0 -
May i ask who you will be voting for roger ?Roger said:
One more push......CarlottaVance said:
zerohedge @zerohedge
CONSERVATIVES 44%, LABOUR 36% IN SUN/SURVEYMONKEY POLL: BBG0 -
Which compares to...?CarlottaVance said:
zerohedge @zerohedge
CONSERVATIVES 44%, LABOUR 36% IN SUN/SURVEYMONKEY POLL: BBG0 -
Just back from canvassing a marginalish ward with lots of pensioners - social care issue only mentioned by a couple of voters in 2 hours, and then not a deal breaker. Fear of Corbyn 10x greater. Brexit still an issue.
Tory maj nailed on.
Wobbly zurich Tories take note!
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You will never see any tablesTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd urge caution until we see the tablesRazedabode said:
Mind you, a tad more reassuring (looking at the dates)TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
On the hottest day of the year and at start of the bank holiday weekend, how few people will actually be inside watching a political interview at 7pm this evening? There'll be snippets in the news and in the papers but unless he says something utterly outrageous, the whole thing's a non event.CarlottaVance said:
I think he tailored his questions to a BBC1 Prime Time audience - not a saddo political anorak audience - hence the more general and less incisive nature - I suspect he'll do the same with Corbyn- so those expecting blood on the walls will be disappointed.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
Slightly comforted by the Sun poll and subsidiary questions - but the trend remains that Labour is not far from touching distance. Squeaky bum time. The Tories must though present a positive case for themselves and not descend into Corbyn's past. Folk aren't actually interested in what he said or did 20 years ago. The Tories have much to say. Get out there and frigging say it!!!0 -
"54 per cent of Scots apparently want to break away from the UK - although only a third want a second independence referendum within the next two years."TGOHF said:
"In the wake of Monday night's terror attack, voters now rate national security as one of the most important political issues, behind only Brexit and the NHS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.
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Anyone pining for leaders debates ?Bob__Sykes said:
On the hottest day of the year and at start of the bank holiday weekend, how few people will actually be inside watching a political interview at 7pm this evening? There'll be snippets in the news and in the papers but unless he says something utterly outrageous, the whole thing's a non event.CarlottaVance said:
I think he tailored his questions to a BBC1 Prime Time audience - not a saddo political anorak audience - hence the more general and less incisive nature - I suspect he'll do the same with Corbyn- so those expecting blood on the walls will be disappointed.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
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Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/8678830878872494090 -
Provided she stays away from DonaldBrom said:
Surely the news will be Andrew Neil giving Corbyn a grilling, Corbyn's being attacked by his own MPs, army veterans and Tories and then May looking statesmanlike at the G7 summit. It's certainly not a bad thing for her.JonathanD said:
Genius by May to call a snap election when she would be away for the weekend in the middle of it.KentRising said:Question: where are the Tories? Full campaigning has restarted and they are nowhere to be seen. They're not all at the G7 are they?
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Good to hear. As disappointing as it is to see the polls showing Corbyn closing the gap any snippets we hear from the door knocking is just as, if not more important.Mortimer said:Just back from canvassing a marginalish ward with lots of pensioners - social care issue only mentioned by a couple of voters in 2 hours, and then not a deal breaker. Fear of Corbyn 10x greater. Brexit still an issue.
Tory maj nailed on.
Wobbly zurich Tories take note!0 -
They published the tables with their previous polls at GE2015MarkSenior said:
You will never see any tablesTheScreamingEagles said:
I'd urge caution until we see the tablesRazedabode said:
Mind you, a tad more reassuring (looking at the dates)TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The opposite of a humblebrag!Pong said:Frustratingly, Spreadex regularly refuse my cashouts as and when they want.
I seem to be red flagged as a sharp punter - they refuse my bet, suspend and then readjust their prices. This doesn't happen to other punters.
It's a crappy business practice.
Then again, I'm limited at every other non-scam bookmaker, so I guess I'll have to put up with it.
I wouldn't want to do business with me, were I a bookmaker.
Last GE Spreadex were 0-0.5 about UKIP in some seat 25/10 index, I called and asked for the price, was probably going to have £50 or so
Put on hold for 5 mins
"0.5-1.5" they said, an absolute disgrace as I was obviously a buyer
"Ok I'll sell a million quid" I said
Unbelievably they put me on hold for another 5 mins then said "you can have £20!!!"
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Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?0
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Yes but Corbyn looks older.Norm said:
Neil is the same age as CorbynRoger said:
It never looks good attacking an old man.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
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Weren't they pretty good in their 2015 poll?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
They are a proper organisation (I don't know if they're a member of the BPC). They did some polls for the EU Referendum, which were more or less in the middle of the range.SquareRoot said:
never heard of themRazedabode said:
Mind you, a tad more reassuring (looking at the dates)TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
He's a Leaver who is one of the main proponents of an idea called CANZUK, under which there would be a close union including freedom of movement with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.surbiton said:
Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/8678830878872494090 -
'Pollsters SurveyMonkey questioned more than 6,000 voters on Wednesday and Thursday.'
That is a mighty big sample size. Will surely calm a few Tory nerves (including mine). 8 points is still way too close for comfort, though. The Tories need to see double digit leads over the weekend to stop shares in Pampers going through the roof.0 -
I am not sure I believe the first part of that sentence which inevitably means you may have to question this poll overallSouthamObserver said:
"54 per cent of Scots apparently want to break away from the UK - although only a third want a second independence referendum within the next two years."TGOHF said:
"In the wake of Monday night's terror attack, voters now rate national security as one of the most important political issues, behind only Brexit and the NHS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.0 -
tyvmSean_F said:
They are a proper organisation (I don't know if they're a member of the BPC). They did some polls for the EU Referendum, which were more or less in the middle of the range.SquareRoot said:
never heard of themRazedabode said:
Mind you, a tad more reassuring (looking at the dates)TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
SouthamObserver said:
"54 per cent of Scots apparently want to break away from the UK - although only a third want a second independence referendum within the next two years."TGOHF said:
"In the wake of Monday night's terror attack, voters now rate national security as one of the most important political issues, behind only Brexit and the NHS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.
Sounds like this poll might be overstating the leftists..SouthamObserver said:
"54 per cent of Scots apparently want to break away from the UKTGOHF said:
"In the wake of Monday night's terror attack, voters now rate national security as one of the most important political issues, behind only Brexit and the NHS.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.0 -
Boris is under strict curfew. Hammond is sulking. Fallon is recovering after recent poor form. Grayling is licking his wounds. Fox is still locked in the cupboard. Rudd is busy with all the terrorism stuff. Hunt and Leadsom are on holiday with Diane Abbott.DanSmith said:
I'm not sure what is going on but Corbyn is bossing the media to an extraordinary extent. I understand May is out of the country at the moment but they have other big beasts who should be out there.Stark_Dawning said:This is going from bad to worse for Theresa. Jezza's terrorism speech was supposed to be the final nail in his coffin - a subject that exposes him as a fanatic at a time when emotions are raw and unforgiving. Yet he's actually getting plaudits for it, and it's the Tories who are looking foamy mouthed by lambasting it. Who talked Theresa into calling this election any way? Was it that Timothy bloke? Theresa had an iron-clad excuse for not calling it in the FTPA. Are we witnessing a political cock up of such mythic proportions that we'll all be telling our grandchildren about it?
Who did you have in mind? David Davis can't do it all...0 -
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
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Their eve of poll 2015 General Election poll had a Scotland subsample of 2500 people and predicted a SNP vote of a mere 66%.Sean_F said:
They are a proper organisation (I don't know if they're a member of the BPC). They did some polls for the EU Referendum, which were more or less in the middle of the range.SquareRoot said:
never heard of themRazedabode said:
Mind you, a tad more reassuring (looking at the dates)TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"0 -
A grand coalition, or National government is just what is needed to get a consensus over Brexit related issues. It is important in particular that all 4 nations participate.SeanT said:What would a Hung Parliament do to Brexit? Anyone have a clue???
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My suspicion is that if a poll of voting intention had been taken on Monday or Tuesday, the Conservative lead would have been completely wiped out, but there's been swingback since then.Jason said:'Pollsters SurveyMonkey questioned more than 6,000 voters on Wednesday and Thursday.'
That is a mighty big sample size. Will surely calm a few Tory nerves (including mine). 8 points is still way too close for comfort, though. The Tories need to see double digit leads over the weekend to stop shares in Pampers going through the roof.0 -
The two big surprises of the campaign are that the Lib Dems didn't get traction and Corbyn wasn't the disaster everyone expected him to be, including most of his party. (Yet). The two are linked. If Labour support holds up and the Lib Dems fail to gain voters and may in fact lose some to Labour, Labour may be able to hang onto a larger number of seats.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.Tykejohnno said:The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.0 -
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
Bob__Sykes said:
On the hottest day of the year and at start of the bank holiday weekend, how few people will actually be inside watching a political interview at 7pm this evening? There'll be snippets in the news and in the papers but unless he says something utterly outrageous, the whole thing's a non event.CarlottaVance said:
I think he tailored his questions to a BBC1 Prime Time audience - not a saddo political anorak audience - hence the more general and less incisive nature - I suspect he'll do the same with Corbyn- so those expecting blood on the walls will be disappointed.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
Slightly comforted by the Sun poll and subsidiary questions - but the trend remains that Labour is not far from touching distance. Squeaky bum time. The Tories must though present a positive case for themselves and not descend into Corbyn's past. Folk aren't actually interested in what he said or did 20 years ago. The Tories have much to say. Get out there and frigging say it!!!Bob__Sykes said:CarlottaVance said:AlastairMeeks said:
Another proof that we are not too far from Hung Parliament territory. I do not buy this 60 majority malarkey. The gap between Con and Labour is only 1% more than 2015.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
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"Her reshuffle seems to have eliminated anything that might grow into a power base....DanSmith said:
I'm not sure what is going on but Corbyn is bossing the media to an extraordinary extent. I understand May is out of the country at the moment but they have other big beasts who should be out there.Stark_Dawning said:This is going from bad to worse for Theresa. Jezza's terrorism speech was supposed to be the final nail in his coffin - a subject that exposes him as a fanatic at a time when emotions are raw and unforgiving. Yet he's actually getting plaudits for it, and it's the Tories who are looking foamy mouthed by lambasting it. Who talked Theresa into calling this election any way? Was it that Timothy bloke? Theresa had an iron-clad excuse for not calling it in the FTPA. Are we witnessing a political cock up of such mythic proportions that we'll all be telling our grandchildren about it?
And this is where her reshuffle starts to make the most sense. It’s not that the new Prime Minister loves Brexiteers and dislikes posh boys. She just likes a government that she can manage. She doesn’t like surprises or arguments, and is suspicious of ministers with too many grand ideas of their own "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/14/theresa-mays-reshuffle-makes-perfect-sense--she-wants-to-be-in-c/
What could possibly go wrong with a PM who assembles this sort of cabinet around them.0 -
No, but they do publish full tablesAlistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
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OK I apologiseTheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the table for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
Election mantra:Jason said:'Pollsters SurveyMonkey questioned more than 6,000 voters on Wednesday and Thursday.'
That is a mighty big sample size. Will surely calm a few Tory nerves (including mine). 8 points is still way too close for comfort, though. The Tories need to see double digit leads over the weekend to stop shares in Pampers going through the roof.
Look at the share, not the lead.
Look at the share, not the lead.
Look at the share, not the lead.0 -
rkrkrk said:
I've wondered about this.
Do you frequently find better odds than are available on betfair exchange?
Or is that they don't have markets you want?paulyork64 said:
is there not a betfair equivalent for you? I guess they don't do spread type bets tho.
Spread bets are a bit different - their main advantage (at least historically) - was that spread companies were willing to take big bets - and accept a potentially large liability.
Liquidity in political betting markets on betfair has improved significantly since 2008/10 - so these days most of my activity is with them.0 -
It's one of those hypothetical scenarios we'll never really know for sure. Could have swung back anyway, could have shown Labour level pegging. Who knows?Sean_F said:
My suspicion is that if a poll of voting intention had been taken on Monday or Tuesday, the Conservative lead would have been completely wiped out, but there's been swingback since then.Jason said:'Pollsters SurveyMonkey questioned more than 6,000 voters on Wednesday and Thursday.'
That is a mighty big sample size. Will surely calm a few Tory nerves (including mine). 8 points is still way too close for comfort, though. The Tories need to see double digit leads over the weekend to stop shares in Pampers going through the roof.0 -
Polls are like religious books, not only for the way people slavishly defend them.
They contain a load of things that are shown to be false over time, but the true believers ignore those and highlight the minute % of them that hold true... why?0 -
So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?0 -
Good old confirmation bias, projection, and human nature.isam said:Polls are like religious books, not only for the way people slavishly defend them.
They contain a load of things that are shown to be false over time, but the true believers ignore those and highlight the minute % of them that hold true... why?0 -
The LibDems, on the other hand.....FF43 said:
The two big surprises of the campaign are that the Lib Dems didn't get traction and Corbyn wasn't the disaster everyone expected him to be, including most of his party. (Yet). The two are linked. If Labour support holds up and the Lib Dems fail to gain voters and may in fact lose some to Labour, Labour may be able to hang onto a larger number of seats.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.Tykejohnno said:The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.0 -
Worry for the Tories if we are seeing a bounce for them now and the lead is only single digits. Corbyn could easily surge again with the added focus of the TV events in the final two weeks.0
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Busted!TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
Sounds like a good idea.AlastairMeeks said:
He's a Leaver who is one of the main proponents of an idea called CANZUK, under which there would be a close union including freedom of movement with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.surbiton said:
Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/8678830878872494090 -
Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....0
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Although, I would caution that if the third parties (other than the SNP) are squeezed out, then a relatively small lead in votes could produce a much bigger lead in seats than UNS would suggest.FF43 said:
The two big surprises of the campaign are that the Lib Dems didn't get traction and Corbyn wasn't the disaster everyone expected him to be, including most of his party. (Yet). The two are linked. If Labour support holds up and the Lib Dems fail to gain voters and may in fact lose some to Labour, Labour may be able to hang onto a larger number of seats.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.Tykejohnno said:The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.0 -
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?0 -
Corbyn will be delighted, he gets the same share of vote that got Blair a majority in 2005.MarqueeMark said:Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....
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It's the reason why Senior's turned into a Corbyn apologist. Fishfinger's had a worse campaign than even May has.MarqueeMark said:
The LibDems, on the other hand.....FF43 said:
The two big surprises of the campaign are that the Lib Dems didn't get traction and Corbyn wasn't the disaster everyone expected him to be, including most of his party. (Yet). The two are linked. If Labour support holds up and the Lib Dems fail to gain voters and may in fact lose some to Labour, Labour may be able to hang onto a larger number of seats.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.RochdalePioneers said:
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.Tykejohnno said:The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
Clegg would have mopped up nicely had he still been leader, and so would Lamb. Fishfinger has helped Corbyn enormously.0 -
Is Survey Monkey related to a A Reid ?0
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Andrew Neil's informed and robust combative interiview technique is very effective when he is carrying out shorter interviews with politicians on the Daily Politics. But its not quite so effective or informantive when you are conducting a more indepth and wide reaching interview over a longer period. I really enjoyed his longer interviews with some former politicians that I caught on BBC News24 (I think) a while back. He deployed a very different and equally highly effective interview technique in those programmes from what we have normally come to expect, but it again proves what a talented journalist he is when it comes to interviews.AlastairMeeks said:
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.Tykejohnno said:Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
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I am impressed an 18,000 plus sample with 2,203 males and 2,476 females , what were the other 13,000 plus ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
It's completely cuckoo, dreamed up by people who didn't bother stopping at the 1950s and instead have regressed to the 1920s.SandyRentool said:
Sounds like a good idea.AlastairMeeks said:
He's a Leaver who is one of the main proponents of an idea called CANZUK, under which there would be a close union including freedom of movement with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.surbiton said:
Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/8678830878872494090 -
I think that on the day, the Conservatives would settle for a lead in high single digits.DanSmith said:Worry for the Tories if we are seeing a bounce for them now and the lead is only single digits. Corbyn could easily surge again with the added focus of the TV events in the final two weeks.
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If either of those two emerge or even one come out and support "Theresa", then you know she is in the yellow stuff.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?0 -
I was thinking moreblueblue said:
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"
Cutting police army navy RAF emergencty services the border force the nhs whilst on critical terror alert was a stupid plan
Then going to war without a plan in places like Libya and turning them into a hot bed of terror was a stupid idea
That sounds like reducing our chances of winning against the nutters to me
May plans more of the same every time Trump clicks his fingers
Lab wants to increase the resources fighting terror and stop stupid wars without a peace plan being in place,
Same stupid plan same result
Sounds sensible to me!!0 -
Mrs May is determined to win this election on her own.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
I suspect she wants Cameron to have no involvement in this election.0 -
ppppfffff, you just had to go and spoil it after my morale had been raised!!DanSmith said:Worry for the Tories if we are seeing a bounce for them now and the lead is only single digits. Corbyn could easily surge again with the added focus of the TV events in the final two weeks.
0 -
He's a Brexiteer from New Zealand who thinks we should have a CANZUK federation... Sounds like he's throwing his toys out of the pram because the voters disagree with him.surbiton said:
Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/867883087887249409
Edit: Beaten to it.0 -
It would be almost the same result (in terms of vote share) as in 1979.TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn will be delighted, he gets the same share of vote that got Blair a majority in 2005.MarqueeMark said:Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....
0 -
Sun readersMarkSenior said:
I am impressed an 18,000 plus sample with 2,203 males and 2,476 females , what were the other 13,000 plus ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
Especially if they're on 44%+.Sean_F said:
I think that on the day, the Conservatives would settle for a lead in high single digits.DanSmith said:Worry for the Tories if we are seeing a bounce for them now and the lead is only single digits. Corbyn could easily surge again with the added focus of the TV events in the final two weeks.
Election mantra:
Look at the share, not the lead.
Look at the share, not the lead.
Look at the share, not the lead.0 -
Answer a hypothetical question on someone else's behalf, then use your answer to ridicule your foes... tut tutAlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
As for Leavers squirming, I said all along better a Corbyn govt outside the EU than a Farage govt inside0 -
Yeah.Andrew said:
They're not a sharp book, just another version of willhill/paddypower/bet365/etc that don't tolerate winners at all.Pong said:Frustratingly, Spreadex regularly refuse my cashouts as and when they want.
They are respectable - in that they're solvent & pay out ok.
I'd generally recommend them, actually.
They're mainly competing against SPIN who have cornered, IIRC ~85% of the UK non-financial spreadbetting market. Spreadex are small time. They can't really afford to indulge non-profitable customers.
I think their main business is financial spreadbetting.0 -
-
bigjohnowls said:
I was thinking moreblueblue said:
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"
Cutting police army navy RAF emergencty services the border force the nhs whilst on critical terror alert was a stupid plan
Then going to war without a plan in places like Libya and turning them into a hot bed of terror was a stupid idea
That sounds like reducing our chances of winning against the nutters to me
May plans more of the same every time Trump clicks his fingers
Lab wants to increase the resources appeasing terror and stop stupid wars without a peace plan being in place,
Same stupid plan same result
Sounds sensible to me!!0 -
Much more sensible than having such arrangements with Eastern Europe. I mean, who from the UK could possibly want to go and live in, say, Hungary?AlastairMeeks said:
It's completely cuckoo, dreamed up by people who didn't bother stopping at the 1950s and instead have regressed to the 1920s.SandyRentool said:
Sounds like a good idea.AlastairMeeks said:
He's a Leaver who is one of the main proponents of an idea called CANZUK, under which there would be a close union including freedom of movement with Canada, Australia and New Zealand.surbiton said:
Who are these self-designated important people ? Never heard of this chap.SouthamObserver said:It's not just Brexiteers on PB in meltdown about the people not doing as they are told:
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/8678830878872494090 -
Good news coming out about progress on the investigation into Monday. If it continues and we do not face further attack that will play well for the government. Decisive action taken getting results.0
-
Would be astonishing, especially as I thought the era of two party politics had well and truly ended.Sean_F said:
It would be almost the same result (in terms of vote share) as in 1979.TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn will be delighted, he gets the same share of vote that got Blair a majority in 2005.MarqueeMark said:Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....
0 -
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?0 -
My thesis all along has been that Corbyn will only be a drag if people think he might win.FF43 said:
The two big surprises of the campaign are that the Lib Dems didn't get traction and Corbyn wasn't the disaster everyone expected him to be, including most of his party. (Yet). The two are linked. If Labour support holds up and the Lib Dems fail to gain voters and may in fact lose some to Labour, Labour may be able to hang onto a larger number of seats.Sean_F said:
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.RochdalePioneers said:
demolished.Tykejohnno said:The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
Otherwise anti Tory Corbyn sceptics will still vote for Labour MPs, safe in the knowledge that Diane Abbott isn't actually going to be in charge of the Police on June 9th.0 -
I remember when Sir John was wheeled out to give Gordon Brown both barrels when Gordon Brown decided to upstage the Tory conference of 2007.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
Don't think Brown ever recovered from it.0 -
You think extra police extra army navy border force intelligence and RAF is appeasing terrorJason said:bigjohnowls said:
I was thinking moreblueblue said:
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"
Cutting police army navy RAF emergencty services the border force the nhs whilst on critical terror alert was a stupid plan
Then going to war without a plan in places like Libya and turning them into a hot bed of terror was a stupid idea
That sounds like reducing our chances of winning against the nutters to me
May plans more of the same every time Trump clicks his fingers
Lab wants to increase the resources appeasing terror and stop stupid wars without a peace plan being in place,
Same stupid plan same result
Sounds sensible to me!!
Strange boy.
Of course May has been doing the opposite and thats worked well0 -
The plan was probably to have Theresa May looking prime ministerial among the G7 (economy) and NATO (defence and security) leaders, in contrast to that shambling old duffer with the red rosette and dodgy mates.JonathanD said:
Genius by May to call a snap election when she would be away for a weekend in the middle of it.KentRising said:Question: where are the Tories? Full campaigning has restarted and they are nowhere to be seen. They're not all at the G7 are they?
0 -
If Brown transformed from Stalin to Mr Bean, which two personalities symbolise the change in May's fortunes?TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember when Sir John was wheeled out to give Gordon Brown both barrels when Gordon Brown decided to upstage the Tory conference of 2007.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
Don't think Brown ever recovered from it.0 -
Major is well respected and admired, and carries a lot of gravitas. One always got the feeling that 97 was not a vote against him more a 'You're a good guy but that party of yours.............'TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember when Sir John was wheeled out to give Gordon Brown both barrels when Gordon Brown decided to upstage the Tory conference of 2007.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
Don't think Brown ever recovered from it.0 -
Declined to say?MarkSenior said:
I am impressed an 18,000 plus sample with 2,203 males and 2,476 females , what were the other 13,000 plus ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
It's written on the tin. SurveyMonkey.MarkSenior said:
I am impressed an 18,000 plus sample with 2,203 males and 2,476 females , what were the other 13,000 plus ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
"Gender-fluid"...MarqueeMark said:
Declined to say?MarkSenior said:
I am impressed an 18,000 plus sample with 2,203 males and 2,476 females , what were the other 13,000 plus ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the tables for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=10614390230 -
Mary poppins to cruella de villewilliamglenn said:
If Brown transformed from Stalin to Mr Bean, which two personalities symbolise the change in May's fortunes?TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember when Sir John was wheeled out to give Gordon Brown both barrels when Gordon Brown decided to upstage the Tory conference of 2007.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
Don't think Brown ever recovered from it.
Maggie thatcher to mark thatcher0 -
I plan to cover that in my Sunday piece.williamglenn said:
If Brown transformed from Stalin to Mr Bean, which two personalities symbolise the change in May's fortunes?TheScreamingEagles said:
I remember when Sir John was wheeled out to give Gordon Brown both barrels when Gordon Brown decided to upstage the Tory conference of 2007.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
Don't think Brown ever recovered from it.
It just needs a bit of refinement.0 -
TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn will be delighted, he gets the same share of vote that got Blair a majority in 2005.MarqueeMark said:Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....
Who in Labour could still argue for his denefestration?
(Are you seeing the brilliance of the Tory campaign yet?)0 -
Does anyone know where I can get a good deal on adult Pampers please? Thanx.0
-
Anyhoo must dash, hope the PBers attending the bash have a lot of fun.
Remember it's mega polling Saturday tomorrow, and I'm your editor.
Strap yourselves in for the ride.0 -
Hat tip to you, Sir!MarkSenior said:
OK I apologiseTheScreamingEagles said:
Well that's a flat out lie.MarkSenior said:
Nope , no one has ever seen a data table for any of their polls ever .Alistair said:Are SurveyMonkey a BPC member?
Here's the table for their 2015 GE poll
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JWLYf5LLfLEMlN-_18WF18nSCK0si5Bfal6WyQwrRaI/edit#gid=1061439023
We all make mistakes (we are only human after all), but you show great decency there!
You've gone up several notches in my estimation.0 -
From popcorn to pampers in under a month!nunu said:Does anyone know where I can get a good deal on adult Pampers please? Thanx.
0 -
Major got rather nasty and personal about Boris and Gove during the referendum. He can stay well away.ab195 said:
Oh I'm sure you're right. Probably depends on how they feel about May. Major in particular has every reason to steer well clear as he was very shabbily treated. Lord Hague may speak out I suppose.AlastairMeeks said:
David Cameron and Sir John Major would probably oblige. It's more than the Conservative party would deserve, given what so many headbanging Conservatives have said about each of them in the last year.ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?0 -
Tories take 355 seats against Labour’s 216.
The SNP would remain in third place on 56 seats while the Lib Dems would lose all their seats except leader Tim Farron’s.
Seriously 1 seat
Are Survey Monkey the new Gold Standard0 -
Community police officers. 1 per town.bigjohnowls said:
You think extra police extra army navy border force intelligence and RAF is appeasing terrorJason said:bigjohnowls said:
I was thinking moreblueblue said:
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"
Cutting police army navy RAF emergencty services the border force the nhs whilst on critical terror alert was a stupid plan
Then going to war without a plan in places like Libya and turning them into a hot bed of terror was a stupid idea
That sounds like reducing our chances of winning against the nutters to me
May plans more of the same every time Trump clicks his fingers
Lab wants to increase the resources appeasing terror and stop stupid wars without a peace plan being in place,
Same stupid plan same result
Sounds sensible to me!!
Strange boy.
Of course May has been doing the opposite and thats worked well
The tories have been increasing funding for MI5 and anti terror police.
Corbyn and his crew want to abolish MI5 and leave NATO.0 -
O/T there's a joke to be made here somewhere
http://www.independent.ie/sport/leftfield/harry-redknapp-wants-to-sign-benoit-assouekotto-but-defender-is-more-interested-in-becoming-a-porn-star-35759714.html0 -
Online ad hoc polls -- I think their angle is to get a huge response and not bother about sampling and weighting.surbiton said:Is Survey Monkey related to a A Reid ?
0 -
Piss poor tactics from the Tories.MarqueeMark said:TheScreamingEagles said:
Corbyn will be delighted, he gets the same share of vote that got Blair a majority in 2005.MarqueeMark said:Con 44%, Lab 36% is still a bad day at the office for Labour....
Who in Labour could still argue for his denefestration?
(Are you being the brilliance of the Tory campaign yet?)
A Labour party polling at 36% is much more likely to take power in 2022 than a Labour party polling 25% or 30%.
Do you really want Corbyn or a Corbynite becoming PM in 2022?0 -
In war, no plan survives first contact with the enemy.DecrepitJohnL said:
The plan was probably to have Theresa May looking prime ministerial among the G7 (economy) and NATO (defence and security) leaders, in contrast to that shambling old duffer with the red rosette and dodgy mates.JonathanD said:
Genius by May to call a snap election when she would be away for a weekend in the middle of it.KentRising said:Question: where are the Tories? Full campaigning has restarted and they are nowhere to be seen. They're not all at the G7 are they?
0 -
Does Theresa have any friends?ab195 said:So the PM and senior ministers are tied up in London doing COBR etc? Isn't it time for them to go on bended knee to ask Cameron and Major to do the former PM bit over the weekend?
"Being PM is a serious business".
"I know who is trust".
"Judge a man by his friends".
That sort of thing?
0 -
Porn, on PB? I mean really.Scrapheap_as_was said:O/T there's a joke to be made here somewhere
http://www.independent.ie/sport/leftfield/harry-redknapp-wants-to-sign-benoit-assouekotto-but-defender-is-more-interested-in-becoming-a-porn-star-35759714.html
Have some standards and stay classy.0 -
That's not official party policy but take a step back -- the reds under the bed stuff has seen Labour rise in the polls. It's not working. Move on.TMA1 said:
Community police officers. 1 per town.bigjohnowls said:
You think extra police extra army navy border force intelligence and RAF is appeasing terrorJason said:bigjohnowls said:
I was thinking moreblueblue said:
That's one of the stupidest arguments for doing anything.bigjohnowls said:
No but more of the same isnt working is it?Pulpstar said:Has the entire UK turned into a A stop the war movement ?
"Bending this iron bar with a hammer isn't working - I know, I'll use my face instead!"
Cutting police army navy RAF emergencty services the border force the nhs whilst on critical terror alert was a stupid plan
Then going to war without a plan in places like Libya and turning them into a hot bed of terror was a stupid idea
That sounds like reducing our chances of winning against the nutters to me
May plans more of the same every time Trump clicks his fingers
Lab wants to increase the resources appeasing terror and stop stupid wars without a peace plan being in place,
Same stupid plan same result
Sounds sensible to me!!
Strange boy.
Of course May has been doing the opposite and thats worked well
The tories have been increasing funding for MI5 and anti terror police.
Corbyn and his crew want to abolish MI5 and leave NATO.0
