politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex
The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400.
I don't think the Andrew Neil interview tonight will help the Tories out much either...
How do you know ?
I said "think"...
I really want him to be shown up tonight, really. But I suspect he's going to be all calm reasonableness and will come out relatively unscathed.
TMay's interview had snippets available on the BBC website well in advance of the interview being screened ... worth keeping an eye out for that soon I'd have thought.
Fpt How ludicrous is it be discussing a Labour victory when they went into the election 20 points down and 3/4 of their own MPs don't support the leader?! Something else is going on here
I don't think the Tory mood on here is because they seriously think Corbyn will seize power and turn Britain into a communist state or whatever.
If he did get largest party status (still hugely unlikely) he doesn't command enough of his own MPs to get much through. And I'll say it again, the mood on the ground remains decent Tory majority but less than believed last week.
I think what we're seeing is embarrassment from people who were oh so confident a few days ago that they were the SAS, but turn out to be Dad's Army like everyone else. They believed their hype just a bit too much, and really thought Crosby was a genius, May was Boudicca, and Corbyn couldn't tie his shoelaces safely without adult supervision. None of those things were quite as true as they thought.
They'll come through this and be insufferable by June 9th. But, for now, it'd take a heart of stone not to laugh.
A thoroughly typical bit of PBlefty passive aggression: you won't engage a specific PBtory over a specific post, because you accurately judge that the vast majority of PB tories are both right about everything, and much brighter than you are, so you try a scattergun approach against a group of "people" (i.e., strawmen) saying things which were never actually said "a few days ago". A very courageous approach.
Also, it's bollocks. It did not need hype to think that a landslide was pretty much nailed on, it just required May to be a third-rate politician or better, which it turns out she isn't.
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
I don't think the Andrew Neil interview tonight will help the Tories out much either...
How do you know ?
I said "think"...
I really want him to be shown up tonight, really. But I suspect he's going to be all calm reasonableness and will come out relatively unscathed.
If Neil succeeds in getting under his skin, he could implode (or explode). I've seen no evidence so far that he can cope with forensic cross examination.
Maybe he will. Maybe he's far smarter and far more cunning than we all gave him credit for. Maybe he's Barack Obama in a body suit.
Or maybe he's a dangerous old zealot who would have IS commanders sipping tea in the garden at Chequers.
Other than the "Dementia Tax", all the Tories are doing is reacting too Labour, rather than setting the agenda. In the lead, but constantly on the defensive: losing.
In other news, today I received an email from the widow of a Nigerian general. She needs to get money out of the country. If I give her my bank account details and look after what she wants to deposit she'll let me keep £10 million of it. So long suckers!!
The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
The oddest thing about the ratings graph on the previous thread is that the May/Tory delta stayed pretty much the same and that May still outpolls the party. It's taken for granted that the inverse we're seeing for Corbyn/Labour is Corbyn dragging down labour yet not much is being said about the possibility that May may still be dragging the Tories up; perhaps May's biggest problem is that the manifesto popped the May bubble by reminding everyone that she's still actually a Conservative?
What would a Hung Parliament do to Brexit? Anyone have a clue???
My guess is that both the SNP and LibDems would be up for coming to some sort of agreement related to further referendums, in return for some sort of minimal agreement enabling the largest party to take power. It rather depends on who the largest party is; as we found in 2010 a situation where there is only one out of the Tories and Labour able to form a practicable government is more likely than both of them being able.
This is going from bad to worse for Theresa. Jezza's terrorism speech was supposed to be the final nail in his coffin - a subject that exposes him as a fanatic at a time when emotions are raw and unforgiving. Yet he's actually getting plaudits for it, and it's the Tories who are looking foamy mouthed by lambasting it. Who talked Theresa into calling this election any way? Was it that Timothy bloke? Theresa had an iron-clad excuse for not calling it in the FTPA. Are we witnessing a political cock up of such mythic proportions that we'll all be telling our grandchildren about it?
What would a Hung Parliament do to Brexit? Anyone have a clue???
May would have to resign for a start.
Paradoxically she might be safer with 310 seats than with 330. The Conservatives couldn't easily go through a leadership election and negotiate a minority government or coalition at the same time. If there's no negotiating to be done with other parties, it's easier for others to wield the knife.
This is going from bad to worse for Theresa. Jezza's terrorism speech was supposed to be the final nail in his coffin - a subject that exposes him as a fanatic at a time when emotions are raw and unforgiving. Yet he's actually getting plaudits for it, and it's the Tories who are looking foamy mouthed by lambasting it. Who talked Theresa into calling this election any way? Was it that Timothy bloke? Theresa had an iron-clad excuse for not calling it in the FTPA. Are we witnessing a political cock up of such mythic proportions that we'll all be telling our grandchildren about it?
Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.
I think he tailored his questions to a BBC1 Prime Time audience - not a saddo political anorak audience - hence the more general and less incisive nature - I suspect he'll do the same with Corbyn- so those expecting blood on the walls will be disappointed.
The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Iraq was 1. wrong and 2. stupid and 3. led directly to the rise of ISIS
So Corbyn has a point. I despise the man, but he has a point here. Anyone can see that.
The Tories should be focussing relentlessly on Corbyn's PAST remarks and associations and gaffes, and how they do not square with this suddenly reasonable dude.
Are they incapable of realising that? It seems so.
The Sun and the Mail seem to have tried that tactic - and it resulted in a Labour increase in the polls. Like you said earlier, the public don't seem to care.
I don't know what to think any more. It's been the most counter-intuitive election campaign I can ever remember. Maybe the public do want radical change. Maybe they are tired of foreign excursions. Maybe they are tired of austerity and pay freezes. Maybe they are tired of tightening their belts. Maybe they do buy into the 'jam for me, lemon for you' narrative.
This election was meant to be fought through the prism of Brexit, leadership, and the economy, and neither of the two most important issues we face have barely got a mention.
It's like an alternative universe. I cannot comprehend a Corbyn victory, yet I see nothing - absolutely nothing - from the Tories, to counter his alarming naivety and economic lunacy. Where are the fucking Tories? Why aren't they hammering this riff raff to pieces?
I cannot believe Cameron, Osborne, Gove, etc, would have let Corbyn off the hook the way May and Hammond have.
May has to get back to the UK and somehow try and dig this out with everything she has. The consequences of her failing to do so are the stuff of nightmares.
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Iraq was 1. wrong and 2. stupid and 3. led directly to the rise of ISIS
So Corbyn has a point. I despise the man, but he has a point here. Anyone can see that.
The Tories should be focussing relentlessly on Corbyn's PAST remarks and associations and gaffes, and how they do not square with this suddenly reasonable dude.
Are they incapable of realising that? It seems so.
The way for Theresa May to deal with Corbyn is to point to her record. I have been working tirelessly for the past seven years first as Home Secretary and now as Prime Minister to keep Britain as safe as possible. This incident shows you can never let your guard down. What has Jeremy Corbyn done over this time?
Dismissing reasonable, if in my view somewhat misguided, speeches as atrocious discredits yourself. Corbyn's IRA connections are no longer very salient now some of them are in government. (It would be a good idea for Corbyn to drop McDonnell though).
Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.
He had too many clever opening questions he had thought of to leave time for much in-depth supplementary probing. The half an hour isn't long enough, or he needs to accept more ruthless prioritisation. Trouble is there is probably a minimum list of topics he needs to cover to do a 'balanced' interview.
Yup, don't know the person but I doubt whether she or the mass assemblage of Esher and Walton Labour pose much of a threat to young Dominic.
Feel free to decline to answer this question, do you think the Tories will take a hit in Surrey over the social care stuff, both from the council stuff and Mrs May's plans?
The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.
A new Scotland only poll would be most welcome at this trying time. If Labour are still polling badly below the tories in Scotland then this means they are making ground in England. Again.
The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
You could be right,she's got two weeks to pull this round.
The real polls where we would find what's really going on is posters on here who do the knocking on the door,these people see real voters and have a sense of a change in the mood.
Oh its real alright, hence my posts of this morning. The Tory manifesto launch created visceral anger amongst the elderly, and as they are the group most likely to vote Tory there's a real sense they are on the run. And the swift u-turn did even more damage - "she's all over the place" went one conversation when the subject moved onto Brexit negotiations.
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
I'm not sure. The elderly are still giving huge leads to the Tories. It's younger voters where Labour is gaining.
From the polls before Manchester it actually appeared to be the middle aged who had shifted the most
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Iraq was 1. wrong and 2. stupid and 3. led directly to the rise of ISIS
So Corbyn has a point. I despise the man, but he has a point here. Anyone can see that.
The Tories should be focussing relentlessly on Corbyn's PAST remarks and associations and gaffes, and how they do not square with this suddenly reasonable dude.
Are they incapable of realising that? It seems so.
The way for Theresa May to deal with Corbyn is to point to her record. I have been working tirelessly for the past seven years first as Home Secretary and now as Prime Minister to keep Britain as safe as possible. This incident shows you can never let your guard down. What has Jeremy Corbyn done over this time?
Dismissing reasonable, if in my view somewhat misguided, speeches as atrocious discredits yourself. Corbyn's IRA connections are no longer very salient now some of them are in government. (It would be a good idea for Corbyn to drop McDonnell though).
I have been working tirelessly for the past seven years first as Home Secretary and now as Prime Minister to keep net immigration to Britain in the tens of thousands.
I have failed in every quarter but I would like you give me the chance to fail over the next 20 quarters.
I think we can all agree that Corbyn has surprised us by not being as bad as anyone thought. Diane Abbott is a problem as is John McDonnell but the man himself is no Eddie the Eagle.
Substitute 52% for 38% and Little England xenophobia or something for pro-IRA anti-nuclear pro-mass-nationalisation Corbyn, and you have exactly the song the pb remainers have been singing since last June.
Yup, don't know the person but I doubt whether she or the mass assemblage of Esher and Walton Labour pose much of a threat to young Dominic.
Feel free to decline to answer this question, do you think the Tories will take a hit in Surrey over the social care stuff, both from the council stuff and Mrs May's plans?
We increased the Tory majority on SCC by three in May (adding modestly that my own went from 170 to over 1100) so the 15% referendum controversy had no impact. As for the social care issue, my gut instinct is that it won't and that the lop-sided majorities in 2015 will be essentially unchanged.
I MUST pop over to Kingston and Surbiton and test the waters there.
Iraq was 1. wrong and 2. stupid and 3. led directly to the rise of ISIS
So Corbyn has a point. I despise the man, but he has a point here. Anyone can see that.
The Tories should be focussing relentlessly on Corbyn's PAST remarks and associations and gaffes, and how they do not square with this suddenly reasonable dude.
Are they incapable of realising that? It seems so.
The leader of IS came from Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda did not arise as a result of the Iraq war. Islamist terrorism is given a boost by the various interventions in Middle Eastern countries but its roots go further back. Look at the Muslim Brotherhood; look at Sayyid Qutb in Egypt. The ideological roots of the Islamist world view go much further back.
There is something very narcissistic in this Western view that we are the cause of Islamism. We aren't. Its roots are in the Arab Islamic world with copious borrowings from Fascism and Nazism.
Corbyn's point is a superficially good one because it reinforces his view that the Iraq war was wrong. But he thought it wrong not because of any analysis of the Arab world but because he did not support any Western action to defend itself against attacks by Islamists. His concern was - and is - with stopping the West not with making things better for Muslims or the Arab world.
That is why someone like him can also oppose the one recent Western intervention in the Muslim world which was indisputably to the good - our intervention in Kosovo.
Why did Corbyn oppose helping Muslims from being slaughtered by Serbs? Why? Because it was the West giving the help.
Corbyn is not a Ken Clarke - who also opposed the Iraq war. The reasons why people oppose military intervention. There are good reasons and there are bad reasons. As far as I can see, Corbyn's reasons are entirely bad ones. I do not think he genuinely cares for the West and its values.
I can only repeat what Lord Rooker, a Labour peer said last year on this:-
"My party leader cannot be accused, like the prime minister, of misleading anyone. He has never, to my knowledge, agreed to protect the realm, the British way of life, or western liberal democracies – and he won't. We need to get rid of him before we face the electorate and have a leader fit and proper to offer themselves as our prime minister….
The case is clear, Daesh is coming for us. They try to use our innate tolerance to undermine us – exactly the same way as the anti-British Trots in the Labour party are using our tolerance to try and get control. The history of Munich tells me not to give in to the easy route. If you don't fight when under attack, you lose – and we are under attack."
"In the wake of Monday night's terror attack, voters now rate national security as one of the most important political issues, behind only Brexit and the NHS.
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
that should calm a few nerves. 8 points isn't great but it's certainly a lot more comfortable than 5. Also continues the trend of Tories in the mid 40s
This is going from bad to worse for Theresa. Jezza's terrorism speech was supposed to be the final nail in his coffin - a subject that exposes him as a fanatic at a time when emotions are raw and unforgiving. Yet he's actually getting plaudits for it, and it's the Tories who are looking foamy mouthed by lambasting it. Who talked Theresa into calling this election any way? Was it that Timothy bloke? Theresa had an iron-clad excuse for not calling it in the FTPA. Are we witnessing a political cock up of such mythic proportions that we'll all be telling our grandchildren about it?
I'm not sure what is going on but Corbyn is bossing the media to an extraordinary extent. I understand May is out of the country at the moment but they have other big beasts who should be out there.
I think we can all agree that Corbyn has surpried us by not being as bad as anyone thought. Diane Abbott is a problem as is John McDonnell but the man himself is no Eddie the Eagle.
He hasn't been really tested yet, though. He has struggled in one-on-one interviews. We'll know by the end of next week if he can cope with sustained and forensic cross examination from people who are not his adoring groupees. Brillo, Paxman, a hostile public...we'll see.
Question: where are the Tories? Full campaigning has restarted and they are nowhere to be seen. They're not all at the G7 are they?
Genius by May to call a snap election when she would be away for the weekend in the middle of it.
Surely the news will be Andrew Neil giving Corbyn a grilling, Corbyn's being attacked by his own MPs, army veterans and Tories and then May looking statesmanlike at the G7 summit. It's certainly not a bad thing for her.
Neal gave May a easy ride in my view,he might just do the same for corbyn.
I agree that Andrew Neil gave Theresa May an easy ride. He could have been far more bruising with the material he had available.
In my experience Andrew Neil works best when the victim's arguments run against his own prejudices. Some of his interviews on climate change are fascinating. Andrew Neil is well briefed. It doesn't mean Neil will always come off best but he does challenge the interviewees. He's much less interesting when he shares the interviewee's prejudices. He can be a lazy interviewer in that case.
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Iraq was 1. wrong and 2. stupid and 3. led directly to the rise of ISIS
So Corbyn has a point. I despise the man, but he has a point here. Anyone can see that.
The Tories should be focussing relentlessly on Corbyn's PAST remarks and associations and gaffes, and how they do not square with this suddenly reasonable dude.
Are they incapable of realising that? It seems so.
Have you watched the documentary, Isis: The Origins of Violence, written and presented by historian Tom Holland and recently aired on C4?
that should calm a few nerves. 8 points isn't great but it's certainly a lot more comfortable than 5. Also continues the trend of Tories in the mid 40s
Once again, as the great Bob Worcester always says, look at the share, not the lead. All the polling is consistent with a "true" polling position of Con 44-45% - whilst slightly down on the previous two weeks 45%-46%, it's still enough for a comfortable majority. Along with the still strong primary supplementaries, I'm not going to worry unless there start being multiple polls with Con 40-42% without any at 44%+.
The polls could all be wrong, of course (again) - but this is unknowable and so not worthy of worry.
Comments
I really want him to be shown up tonight, really. But I suspect he's going to be all calm reasonableness and will come out relatively unscathed.
How ludicrous is it be discussing a Labour victory when they went into the election 20 points down and 3/4 of their own MPs don't support the leader?! Something else is going on here
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Maybe he will. Maybe he's far smarter and far more cunning than we all gave him credit for. Maybe he's Barack Obama in a body suit.
Or maybe he's a dangerous old zealot who would have IS commanders sipping tea in the garden at Chequers.
I doubt full national campaigning will start till after the bank holiday; there's little point.
But then, boy do CCHQ need to get it together.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/26/general-election-2017-terror-corbyn-may-g7-sicily-politics-live?page=with:block-59283cece4b00493c8276395#block-59283cece4b00493c8276395
In other news, today I received an email from the widow of a Nigerian general. She needs to get money out of the country. If I give her my bank account details and look after what she wants to deposit she'll let me keep £10 million of it. So long suckers!!
But his manner and language can appear so.
Understandable, Take That cancelled their gigs too.
Well, the IRA supported the GF agreement.
Did I see one of his Labour opponents has been suspended from the party?
As for the suspension, no idea.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/867883087887249409
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-suspends-esher-walton-vice-chairman-daniel-ewen-manchester-bombing-comments_uk_5927fb16e4b01b9a593808ac
Stuff like Andrew Lilico's tweets warms the heart of this member of the liberal metropolitan elite.
How old is neal ?
It would if corbyn pulls one of them angry faces that looks like outside mate ;-)
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
I don't know what to think any more. It's been the most counter-intuitive election campaign I can ever remember. Maybe the public do want radical change. Maybe they are tired of foreign excursions. Maybe they are tired of austerity and pay freezes. Maybe they are tired of tightening their belts. Maybe they do buy into the 'jam for me, lemon for you' narrative.
This election was meant to be fought through the prism of Brexit, leadership, and the economy, and neither of the two most important issues we face have barely got a mention.
It's like an alternative universe. I cannot comprehend a Corbyn victory, yet I see nothing - absolutely nothing - from the Tories, to counter his alarming naivety and economic lunacy. Where are the fucking Tories? Why aren't they hammering this riff raff to pieces?
I cannot believe Cameron, Osborne, Gove, etc, would have let Corbyn off the hook the way May and Hammond have.
May has to get back to the UK and somehow try and dig this out with everything she has. The consequences of her failing to do so are the stuff of nightmares.
Incidentally I'm still firmly onboard the massive polling failure overstating Labour train
Dismissing reasonable, if in my view somewhat misguided, speeches as atrocious discredits yourself. Corbyn's IRA connections are no longer very salient now some of them are in government. (It would be a good idea for Corbyn to drop McDonnell though).
Labour started in mid April around 152 - 158, am I right ?
I have failed in every quarter but I would like you give me the chance to fail over the next 20 quarters.
I seem to be red flagged as a sharp punter - they refuse my bet, suspend and then readjust their prices. This doesn't happen to other punters.
It's a crappy business practice.
Then again, I'm limited at every other non-scam bookmaker, so I guess I'll have to put up with it.
I wouldn't want to do business with me, were I a bookmaker.
THE TORIES are on course to win a hugely increased majority because voters massively prefer Theresa May to Jeremy Corbyn, a new poll finds.
The exclusive survey shows the Conservatives leading Labour by eight points – suggesting they will win a majority of around 60.
Do you frequently find better odds than are available on betfair exchange?
Or is that they don't have markets you want?
I MUST pop over to Kingston and Surbiton and test the waters there.
There is something very narcissistic in this Western view that we are the cause of Islamism. We aren't. Its roots are in the Arab Islamic world with copious borrowings from Fascism and Nazism.
Corbyn's point is a superficially good one because it reinforces his view that the Iraq war was wrong. But he thought it wrong not because of any analysis of the Arab world but because he did not support any Western action to defend itself against attacks by Islamists. His concern was - and is - with stopping the West not with making things better for Muslims or the Arab world.
That is why someone like him can also oppose the one recent Western intervention in the Muslim world which was indisputably to the good - our intervention in Kosovo.
Why did Corbyn oppose helping Muslims from being slaughtered by Serbs? Why? Because it was the West giving the help.
Corbyn is not a Ken Clarke - who also opposed the Iraq war. The reasons why people oppose military intervention. There are good reasons and there are bad reasons. As far as I can see, Corbyn's reasons are entirely bad ones. I do not think he genuinely cares for the West and its values.
I can only repeat what Lord Rooker, a Labour peer said last year on this:-
"My party leader cannot be accused, like the prime minister, of misleading anyone. He has never, to my knowledge, agreed to protect the realm, the British way of life, or western liberal democracies – and he won't. We need to get rid of him before we face the electorate and have a leader fit and proper to offer themselves as our prime minister….
The case is clear, Daesh is coming for us. They try to use our innate tolerance to undermine us – exactly the same way as the anti-British Trots in the Labour party are using our tolerance to try and get control. The history of Munich tells me not to give in to the easy route. If you don't fight when under attack, you lose – and we are under attack."
More
Update on my Combined Forecast with @RosieShorrocks and @_JohnKenny:
Conservative majority of 100
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.
zerohedge @zerohedge
CONSERVATIVES 44%, LABOUR 36% IN SUN/SURVEYMONKEY POLL: BBG
The polls could all be wrong, of course (again) - but this is unknowable and so not worthy of worry.