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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down t
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters continue to sell CON seats on the spreads – now down to 102 majority with Spreadex
The latest polling has caused a big sell of CON seats on the spread markets. With Spreadex it is now 373-379 seats. At the weekend the buy level was more than 400.
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I really want him to be shown up tonight, really. But I suspect he's going to be all calm reasonableness and will come out relatively unscathed.
How ludicrous is it be discussing a Labour victory when they went into the election 20 points down and 3/4 of their own MPs don't support the leader?! Something else is going on here
FPT the Yougov poll, it's not a question that lends itself easily to a straight Yes/No answer.
I think that our foreign policy does indeed generate a sense of grievance among Islamists, but (a) that doesn't make our foreign policy wrong and (b) this sense of grievance would always be there.
Maybe he will. Maybe he's far smarter and far more cunning than we all gave him credit for. Maybe he's Barack Obama in a body suit.
Or maybe he's a dangerous old zealot who would have IS commanders sipping tea in the garden at Chequers.
I doubt full national campaigning will start till after the bank holiday; there's little point.
But then, boy do CCHQ need to get it together.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/26/general-election-2017-terror-corbyn-may-g7-sicily-politics-live?page=with:block-59283cece4b00493c8276395#block-59283cece4b00493c8276395
In other news, today I received an email from the widow of a Nigerian general. She needs to get money out of the country. If I give her my bank account details and look after what she wants to deposit she'll let me keep £10 million of it. So long suckers!!
But his manner and language can appear so.
Understandable, Take That cancelled their gigs too.
Well, the IRA supported the GF agreement.
Did I see one of his Labour opponents has been suspended from the party?
As for the suspension, no idea.
https://twitter.com/andrew_lilico/status/867883087887249409
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/labour-suspends-esher-walton-vice-chairman-daniel-ewen-manchester-bombing-comments_uk_5927fb16e4b01b9a593808ac
Stuff like Andrew Lilico's tweets warms the heart of this member of the liberal metropolitan elite.
How old is neal ?
It would if corbyn pulls one of them angry faces that looks like outside mate ;-)
If the Tories lose this - or fail to clearly win - we'll have to put "Strong and Stable" alongside "Are you thinking what we're thinking?" and "Who governs Britain?" as an epic Tory campaign disaster. Had she not tried to make the entire campaign "I am the heir of Thatcher, don't vote Corbyn" then the missteps may not have been so bad, as it is her only USP has been demolished.
She's Frit. And everyone can see that now.
I don't know what to think any more. It's been the most counter-intuitive election campaign I can ever remember. Maybe the public do want radical change. Maybe they are tired of foreign excursions. Maybe they are tired of austerity and pay freezes. Maybe they are tired of tightening their belts. Maybe they do buy into the 'jam for me, lemon for you' narrative.
This election was meant to be fought through the prism of Brexit, leadership, and the economy, and neither of the two most important issues we face have barely got a mention.
It's like an alternative universe. I cannot comprehend a Corbyn victory, yet I see nothing - absolutely nothing - from the Tories, to counter his alarming naivety and economic lunacy. Where are the fucking Tories? Why aren't they hammering this riff raff to pieces?
I cannot believe Cameron, Osborne, Gove, etc, would have let Corbyn off the hook the way May and Hammond have.
May has to get back to the UK and somehow try and dig this out with everything she has. The consequences of her failing to do so are the stuff of nightmares.
Incidentally I'm still firmly onboard the massive polling failure overstating Labour train
Dismissing reasonable, if in my view somewhat misguided, speeches as atrocious discredits yourself. Corbyn's IRA connections are no longer very salient now some of them are in government. (It would be a good idea for Corbyn to drop McDonnell though).
Labour started in mid April around 152 - 158, am I right ?
I have failed in every quarter but I would like you give me the chance to fail over the next 20 quarters.
I seem to be red flagged as a sharp punter - they refuse my bet, suspend and then readjust their prices. This doesn't happen to other punters.
It's a crappy business practice.
Then again, I'm limited at every other non-scam bookmaker, so I guess I'll have to put up with it.
I wouldn't want to do business with me, were I a bookmaker.
THE TORIES are on course to win a hugely increased majority because voters massively prefer Theresa May to Jeremy Corbyn, a new poll finds.
The exclusive survey shows the Conservatives leading Labour by eight points – suggesting they will win a majority of around 60.
Do you frequently find better odds than are available on betfair exchange?
Or is that they don't have markets you want?
I MUST pop over to Kingston and Surbiton and test the waters there.
There is something very narcissistic in this Western view that we are the cause of Islamism. We aren't. Its roots are in the Arab Islamic world with copious borrowings from Fascism and Nazism.
Corbyn's point is a superficially good one because it reinforces his view that the Iraq war was wrong. But he thought it wrong not because of any analysis of the Arab world but because he did not support any Western action to defend itself against attacks by Islamists. His concern was - and is - with stopping the West not with making things better for Muslims or the Arab world.
That is why someone like him can also oppose the one recent Western intervention in the Muslim world which was indisputably to the good - our intervention in Kosovo.
Why did Corbyn oppose helping Muslims from being slaughtered by Serbs? Why? Because it was the West giving the help.
Corbyn is not a Ken Clarke - who also opposed the Iraq war. The reasons why people oppose military intervention. There are good reasons and there are bad reasons. As far as I can see, Corbyn's reasons are entirely bad ones. I do not think he genuinely cares for the West and its values.
I can only repeat what Lord Rooker, a Labour peer said last year on this:-
"My party leader cannot be accused, like the prime minister, of misleading anyone. He has never, to my knowledge, agreed to protect the realm, the British way of life, or western liberal democracies – and he won't. We need to get rid of him before we face the electorate and have a leader fit and proper to offer themselves as our prime minister….
The case is clear, Daesh is coming for us. They try to use our innate tolerance to undermine us – exactly the same way as the anti-British Trots in the Labour party are using our tolerance to try and get control. The history of Munich tells me not to give in to the easy route. If you don't fight when under attack, you lose – and we are under attack."
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Update on my Combined Forecast with @RosieShorrocks and @_JohnKenny:
Conservative majority of 100
Mrs May and the Tories are by far the most trusted party on the issue - 55 per cent of the public say the PM is the best person to handle terror and only 20 per cent think Mr Corbyn would do better."
This will percolate down soon into the VI.
zerohedge @zerohedge
CONSERVATIVES 44%, LABOUR 36% IN SUN/SURVEYMONKEY POLL: BBG
The polls could all be wrong, of course (again) - but this is unknowable and so not worthy of worry.