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SystemSystem Posts: 12,682
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015

CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    :o
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    :lol:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    edited May 2017
    OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    :p
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Crush the saboteurs indeed.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,053
    I'm sceptical. At the moment. Need more data. But not confident now of my Tory 100 majority prediction.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,609
    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/867850918871445504
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    On Corbyn's speech, France opposed the Iraq War.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Scott_P said:

    hps://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/867847777040183298

    Christ, I never thought it would get that low. I get the true believers, I get the Tory haters and the Labour loyalists, but I just do not get how Labour could, even in a poll, be so much higher than poor Ed M got in the election.

    Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.

    Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.
    HYUFD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024

    The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border control
    It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.

    Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.
    kle4 said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.

    Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.

    Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.

    But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.

    Tory majority 30-50 at best.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Crush the saboteurs indeed.

    Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!

    But trend klaxon too.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,609
    edited May 2017
    Con maj 1.16, incredible really
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Crush the saboteurs indeed.

    Saboteurs of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your oppressors!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/867850918871445504

    Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Freggles said:

    As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.

    Agreed.

    My there are some wobbly jawed PBTories tonight.

    Anyone who has worked the doorsteps in the last few elections can see how well Mrs May is going.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/867847832950231044

    The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Mortimer said:

    Freggles said:

    As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.

    Agreed.

    My there are some wobbly jawed PBTories tonight.

    Anyone who has worked the doorsteps in the last few elections can see how well Mrs May is going.
    More than wobbly jaws... :o
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    edited May 2017
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 10,661
    May - weakened. Corbyn - self destructing his own surprising success of a campaign, just about now.

    Outcome - Tory majority of 10-30.

    ( And I say all this as a variously Liberal Democat / Green / Labour voter ).
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Freggles said:

    As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.

    Two more weeks for Mrs Weak and Wobbly to lose those fundamentals .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,258
    edited May 2017
    May has a 22% lead on keeping the UK safe from terrorism, 66% want to ban Brits visiting Syria from returning, 56% introduce the death penalty, 42% extreme vetting for visitors, 41% to imprison those suspected of extremism, May needs to go tough on immigration and law and order next week, her voteshare is still well over 40%, just Corbyn squeezing others and indeed almost certainly getting some 2015 UKIP voters (given UKIP down 9% on 2015 and LDs up 2% there are clearly some UKIP to Labour switchers given Labour up 7%), UKIP also up 1% on the last yougov, she needs to win them back
    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4967/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tonight-s-one-local-by-election/p1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/867850918871445504

    Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
    Yes, it has confirmed to many out there that the Tories under Theresa are mean spirited like they were under Thatcher. They need to vote Labour to defend their homes. The Tory share is still very high, but look at how the left is uniting behind Labour because of these nasty house thieving policies.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    MaxPB said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Crush the saboteurs indeed.

    Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
    To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.

    The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    edited May 2017
    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/867850918871445504

    Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
    Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.

    They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.

    Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.

    Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
  • leomckinstryleomckinstry Posts: 54
    Jeremy Corbyn: The Man Who Saved the Labour Party. Who on earth would have believed that at the start of the campaign? Incredible stuff.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    Posted this on the last thread....

    So, let's see.

    - We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
    - In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
    - There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
    - The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
    - Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.

    Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.

    You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"

    If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    JohnO said:

    The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.

    Not a chance in hell. Recent events won't change the course of this campaign, which is Labour surging and the Tory lead evaporating. I still don't see how the Tories could lose this, but when the figures get that close, after leads (albeit ridiculous ones) of 20+? That's a terrible campaign.

    I was considering voting Tory, as at least they were offering some realism, but given they'll win the seat anyway, I don't see that they deserve the small boost in vote percentage even my solitary vote would cause, with their complacent, arrogant campaigning which is ensuring Corbyn will remain as Labour leader.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SeanT said:

    If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.

    I wonder if we will even Brexit.

    If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.

    How sad.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Essexit said:

    Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.

    On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?

    Le Partie, C'est Moi!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    The day the polls closed.

    (that said the Tory manifesto was shambolic - they deserve a knock)
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    There is a comic side to all of this. Somewhere.

    Yeah, your reactions.

    And Smithson's predictable selection of polls for thread headers or not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats
  • blueblueblueblue Posts: 875
    Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?

    If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    JohnO said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.
    What did you think of the Tory manifesto Mr O ?
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited May 2017
    Just one poll. Might just be another boring 45-35ish with MoE.

    More generally, after the bombing it could take a while for the polls to settle, and/or for the polls to align with true voting intentions.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,609
    SeanT said:

    If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.

    I wonder if we will even Brexit.

    If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.

    If a my cisgender aunt had bollocks they'd be whatever they self identify as
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rkrkrk said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/867850918871445504

    Can it really all be down to social care proposals?
    Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.

    They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.

    Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.

    Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.
    I'd argue eight years of ultra low interest rates has done that.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    FPT

    Will YouGov 5% Con Lead in 2017 be remembered like the ICM 5% Lab lead in 1997?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    brokenwheel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/867847832950231044

    The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?
    Who watches those things? It won't alter this course - people really do like Corbyn more when they see him, the really do like Labour policies so much they don't care if they are affordable (or accept massive massive borrowing to make them so).

    A Labour rise like this cannot solely be down to social care crap, it really does seem that all that bitching in the press was holding them back and Corbyn was right all along, even if probably not by enough to actually win.

    What a waste of an election.
  • TookieTBookieTookieTBookie Posts: 10
    Need to see a lot more polls reflecting the same before any wild predictions! I agree that in the marginals the Tories will win but a larger opposition and majority of 'only' 30-40 would be no bad thing for democracy
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    SouthamObserver said:

    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.

    The second wobble is always better than the first ;)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    lol

    once again;

    Corbyn = Attlee ??!!

    Lots of parallels.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,511
    Andrew said:

    Just one poll. This could just be another boring 45-35ish with MoE.

    Good point, and the supplementals do not point to the public having Corbyn in mind for PM.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Crush the saboteurs indeed.

    Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
    To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.

    The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
    You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats

    Did they predict a hung Parliament in 2015? :lol:
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Anthony Wells, research director at YouGov, said: “Given Theresa May’s substantial lead on taking the right decisions on terrorism it would be a mistake to assume the narrowing Tory lead is necessarily connected to the bombing. This is the first poll since the dementia tax row, and that seems a more plausible explanation.”
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,053
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats

    I don't get that. Baxtered it's a Tory majority of 30-odd
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    The newly registered young non-voters difficult to capture by pollsters I guess - if they turnout !!
  • isamisam Posts: 42,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.

    Why?!!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.

    France, 1940 :lol:
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.

    You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SeanT said:

    If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.

    I wonder if we will even Brexit.

    If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.

    She will not be in office. Her replacement is the key question. Could the headbangers get one of their own this time, or would the "grown ups" thwart it? Again.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all. - Lib Dems +1 – must be an outlier…! :lol:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    SouthamObserver said:

    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.

    Yup. Labour getting under 10 once was inevitable, its the ebb and flow of a campaign. Labour consistently within 10 under Corbyn? That's crap leadership, crap campaigning.

    Who are these doorstep people who say they won't vote labour under corbyn, and why are they living in a different world from whoever the pollsters contact?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anthony Wells, research director at YouGov, said: “Given Theresa May’s substantial lead on taking the right decisions on terrorism it would be a mistake to assume the narrowing Tory lead is necessarily connected to the bombing. This is the first poll since the dementia tax row, and that seems a more plausible explanation.”

    Which suggests Labour may have actually been further ahead if it wasn't for Manchester. Gadzooks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    brokenwheel said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/867847832950231044

    The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?
    Though Jezza has had a few days practice. Don't count on him blowing it. He is no Theresa May.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Essexit said:

    Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.

    On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?

    Le Partie, C'est Moi!
    Yeah we have them too in Sussex. Nick Gibb standing with Theresa May. No mention of the Conservative party. Embarrassing...
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.

    The second wobble is always better than the first ;)
    It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    leomckinstry said:

    Jeremy Corbyn: The Man Who Saved the Labour Party. Who on earth would have believed that at the start of the campaign? Incredible stuff.

    "Not one step back!"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.

    You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)
    I shall be doing my best to get Aaron elected.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Essexit said:

    Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.

    On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?

    Le Partie, C'est Moi!
    We agree for once - I'm not a fan of this presidential campaigning.
  • leomckinstryleomckinstry Posts: 54
    blueblue said:

    Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?

    If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.

    Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.
  • TMA1TMA1 Posts: 225
    The con vote share is 43%. What was it in 2015 Mr Smithson?
    More to the point what has appened to the LD share?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?
    What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/867853247909953537
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Suppose this will put an end to the Twitter theories that May planned the attack to boost her ratings? :p
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    Tykejohnno said:

    JohnO said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.
    What did you think of the Tory manifesto Mr O ?
    For sure could have been better, but overall pretty mainstream. Mrs May will win big: about that I have not the slightest doubt.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    kle4 said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.

    Yup. Labour getting under 10 once was inevitable, its the ebb and flow of a campaign. Labour consistently within 10 under Corbyn? That's crap leadership, crap campaigning.

    Who are these doorstep people who say they won't vote labour under corbyn, and why are they living in a different world from whoever the pollsters contact?
    Do not worry , the next Yougov poll only has a panel of pb Conservatives !!!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,750
    Is it too late for George to announce he is unresigning and running for Tatton?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    SimonStClare said:

    Evening all. - Lib Dems +1 – must be an outlier…! :lol:

    Arf :)
  • woody662woody662 Posts: 255
    Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    "Theresa May was warned by Manchester police officer that cuts risked terror attack in the city" http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-5
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Nuttall really shouldn't have invited his candidates to the manifesto launch
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    MaxPB said:

    Is it too late for George to announce he is unresigning and running for Tatton?

    Yes
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TookieTBookie said:

    Need to see a lot more polls reflecting the same before any wild predictions! I agree that in the marginals the Tories will win but a larger opposition and majority of 'only' 30-40 would be no bad thing for democracy

    No, except Corbyn really is not up to the job of LOTO (and certainly not PM) and a strong campaign doesn't alter that in my view, and on this showing he would easily remain as Leader.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Crush the saboteurs indeed.

    Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.
    To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.

    The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
    You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.
    I guess you're doing as much campaigning with real voters as I am, right?

    Seriously Max, get out of your hedgie bubble, talk to voters in Lab/Con marginals. You will sleep an awful lot better.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    May never fought a full leadership election. Corbyn won two.

    It shows.
  • SWRSWR Posts: 3
    Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    MaxPB said:

    Is it too late for George to announce he is unresigning and running for Tatton?

    Yes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    TheKitchenCabinet said:

    RobD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.

    May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.

    The second wobble is always better than the first ;)
    It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...
    You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Kuenssberg talking about Corbyn speech tomorrow now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,100
    woody662 said:

    Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.

    I note last election you tipped up Sherwood @ 11-4...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    rkrkrk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?
    What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)

    More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tykejohnno said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.

    You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)
    I shall be doing my best to get Aaron elected.
    I mean on here.
  • PClippPClipp Posts: 2,138
    SeanT said:

    If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
    I wonder if we will even Brexit.
    If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.

    That sounds like fun, Mr T.

    Precisely why did Mrs May call this unnecessary election?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    SWR said:

    Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!

    Oh he won't get in - but the people seem to really not to care for the idea that the Tories will have a free hand. In one sense that is good, it is just unfortunate Corbyn will be the beneficiary by default.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    edited May 2017
    A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.

    Now that lead is circa 15%.

    She's lost 35% in a month.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 2,275
    woody662 said:

    Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.

    I am with you on that one. The disconnect between here and what happens in the real world is frightening.

    It is a bit like all the hype that "Games of Thrones" gets with everyone in the media talking about it like the most important programme on TV. And then you find out it has fewer viewers than Hollyoaks....

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,888
    SouthamObserver said:

    rkrkrk said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    isam said:

    The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it

    It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.

    Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?
    What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)

    More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.

    And then what? He's been an awful leader of the opposition and will continue to be so.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,086
    PB Tories - hello, how are you feeling?

    But nothing to worry about, this is an outlier. You guys will win, maybe even win big.

    Jeremy Corbyn is still crap!
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    tlg86 said:

    I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?

    That's what I questioned in the previous thread. I don't see how SNP + Plaid can possibly be lower than about 5.2-5.3% in an actual GE. The remaining GB-wide share of less than 1% only covers the Speaker, independents and minor parties. These numbers therefore imply that the Greens are on 0%.
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