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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has CON lead BELOW what it was at GE2015
CON lead down to 5% with @YouGov pic.twitter.com/udkAz2lgyv
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OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!0
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Crush the saboteurs indeed.0
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I'm sceptical. At the moment. Need more data. But not confident now of my Tory 100 majority prediction.0
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The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.0
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The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it0
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As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.0
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On Corbyn's speech, France opposed the Iraq War.0
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Christ, I never thought it would get that low. I get the true believers, I get the Tory haters and the Labour loyalists, but I just do not get how Labour could, even in a poll, be so much higher than poor Ed M got in the election.Scott_P said:hps://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/867847777040183298
Corbynism has defeated me, I cannot predict or explain its extent of appeal.
Unless the polls shift away again to regularly back into the low tens at least, I'm changing my prediction to Labour 195-215.
It's been said they would do that for weeks. Either it is not working or it is too late. The details are clear - people give May much higher scores than Corbyn, so she might well outperform the headline VI figure, but it won't be a wipeout for Labour even if she does, unless it is by almost doubling it.HYUFD said:
The detail from that poll is clear, May has a 22% lead on keeping Britain safe from terrorism and 66% want to ban Brits who go to Syria from returning, the Tory campaign needs to shift to Corbyn's record on national security and a tough line on border controlTheScreamingEagles said:
Any attempt by the Tories to bring out the security stuff now will look desperate and a distraction technique, they waited too long.kle4 said:
Not according to everybody, and we haven't had polls with fieldwork after the event in any case.The_Apocalypse said:You know what I'm starting to doubt PB group think re Corbyn and this statement that he's going make tomorrow being something that will be 'disastrous' for him.
Weren't the polls supposed to swing back to May after this week's events according to PB? That's not happened.
But the trend is clear - unless we're in a polling disaster, Labour are surging under Corbyn as discipline returns, the low Labour scores were the result of disunited Labour, and they are not even close to wipeout.
Tory majority 30-50 at best.0 -
Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.0
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Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
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But trend klaxon too.Sunil_Prasannan said:OUTLIER KLAXON!!!!!
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Con maj 1.16, incredible really0
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Saboteurs of the world unite, you have nothing to lose but your oppressors!AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
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It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
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Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Agreed.Freggles said:As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.
My there are some wobbly jawed PBTories tonight.
Anyone who has worked the doorsteps in the last few elections can see how well Mrs May is going.0 -
The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
More than wobbly jaws...Mortimer said:
Agreed.Freggles said:As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.
My there are some wobbly jawed PBTories tonight.
Anyone who has worked the doorsteps in the last few elections can see how well Mrs May is going. 0 -
Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
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May - weakened. Corbyn - self destructing his own surprising success of a campaign, just about now.
Outcome - Tory majority of 10-30.
( And I say all this as a variously Liberal Democat / Green / Labour voter ).0 -
Two more weeks for Mrs Weak and Wobbly to lose those fundamentals .Freggles said:As funny as it is, let's get real. Even if there is a LAB surge it won't be in marginal seats. I expect a respectable CON majority. Look at the fundamentals of trust on the economy and best leader.
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May has a 22% lead on keeping the UK safe from terrorism, 66% want to ban Brits visiting Syria from returning, 56% introduce the death penalty, 42% extreme vetting for visitors, 41% to imprison those suspected of extremism, May needs to go tough on immigration and law and order next week, her voteshare is still well over 40%, just Corbyn squeezing others and indeed almost certainly getting some 2015 UKIP voters (given UKIP down 9% on 2015 and LDs up 2% there are clearly some UKIP to Labour switchers given Labour up 7%), UKIP also up 1% on the last yougov, she needs to win them back
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/867848549127553024/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/4967/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-tonight-s-one-local-by-election/p10 -
Yes, it has confirmed to many out there that the Tories under Theresa are mean spirited like they were under Thatcher. They need to vote Labour to defend their homes. The Tory share is still very high, but look at how the left is uniting behind Labour because of these nasty house thieving policies.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...0 -
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.0 -
Jeremy Corbyn: The Man Who Saved the Labour Party. Who on earth would have believed that at the start of the campaign? Incredible stuff.0
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Posted this on the last thread....
So, let's see.
- We are told that General Election campaigns don't usually change things, that people have made their mind up way before
- In the last election, we were told that the best PM score was a more reliable metric than the raw party political stuff. May leads by a country mile.
- There is plenty of anecdotal data to show that JC is toxic with the WWC
- The Labour Uncut piece stated that, in places like the NE, canvassers were reporting that 1 in 3 2015 Labour voters were deserting the party. This from the same guy who stated a week before the 2015 GE that Labour was in trouble based on what could be gleaned from the early postal votes.
- Older people tend to vote and they remember the IRA etc etc.
Against that, we have the polls. If your Momentum people have decided that influencing the betting odds can change the narrative, then they were surely have worked out that getting yourself up with a polling company (which, let's be honest, they are desperate to have people sign up for them) also makes sense. I would bet money (and I have) that this is what is happening here.
You know what has been the number one topic I have found has come up time and time again post-Manchester? Immigration. As in "we let these people in, it is unbelievable", swiftly followed by "And Corbyn (and the Lib Dems) want to let in more!"
If anyone wants to have a bet it will be a Hung Parliament, please, please, please get in touch.....0 -
Not a chance in hell. Recent events won't change the course of this campaign, which is Labour surging and the Tory lead evaporating. I still don't see how the Tories could lose this, but when the figures get that close, after leads (albeit ridiculous ones) of 20+? That's a terrible campaign.JohnO said:The Conservative majority will be over 100. I have spoken.
I was considering voting Tory, as at least they were offering some realism, but given they'll win the seat anyway, I don't see that they deserve the small boost in vote percentage even my solitary vote would cause, with their complacent, arrogant campaigning which is ensuring Corbyn will remain as Labour leader.0 -
How sad.SeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.0 -
On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?Essexit said:Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.
Le Partie, C'est Moi!0 -
If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.0
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The day the polls closed.
(that said the Tory manifesto was shambolic - they deserve a knock)0 -
FPT
Yeah, your reactions.SeanT said:There is a comic side to all of this. Somewhere.
And Smithson's predictable selection of polls for thread headers or not.0 -
The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats0
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Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.0 -
I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?0
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What did you think of the Tory manifesto Mr O ?JohnO said:
Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
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Just one poll. Might just be another boring 45-35ish with MoE.
More generally, after the bombing it could take a while for the polls to settle, and/or for the polls to align with true voting intentions.0 -
I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.0
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If a my cisgender aunt had bollocks they'd be whatever they self identify asSeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.0 -
No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
I'd argue eight years of ultra low interest rates has done that.TheScreamingEagles said:
Older voters vote Tory, they also are the largest demographic.rkrkrk said:
Can it really all be down to social care proposals?TheScreamingEagles said:
They also like to leave their houses to their kids tax free.
Since Thatcher, every Tory leader has pushed the home owning democracy policy and raised IHT to ensure they don't get taxed on their houses.
Mrs May has just shat all over 40 years worth Tory orthodoxy.0 -
FPT
Will YouGov 5% Con Lead in 2017 be remembered like the ICM 5% Lab lead in 1997?0 -
Who watches those things? It won't alter this course - people really do like Corbyn more when they see him, the really do like Labour policies so much they don't care if they are affordable (or accept massive massive borrowing to make them so).brokenwheel said:
The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?TheScreamingEagles said:
A Labour rise like this cannot solely be down to social care crap, it really does seem that all that bitching in the press was holding them back and Corbyn was right all along, even if probably not by enough to actually win.
What a waste of an election.0 -
Need to see a lot more polls reflecting the same before any wild predictions! I agree that in the marginals the Tories will win but a larger opposition and majority of 'only' 30-40 would be no bad thing for democracy0
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The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
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lol
once again;
Corbyn = Attlee ??!!
Lots of parallels.0 -
You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.Mortimer said:
To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...0 -
Did they predict a hung Parliament in 2015?TheScreamingEagles said:The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats
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Anthony Wells, research director at YouGov, said: “Given Theresa May’s substantial lead on taking the right decisions on terrorism it would be a mistake to assume the narrowing Tory lead is necessarily connected to the bombing. This is the first poll since the dementia tax row, and that seems a more plausible explanation.”0
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I don't get that. Baxtered it's a Tory majority of 30-oddTheScreamingEagles said:The Times/Anthony Wells say their analysis of this poll says the Tory majority will be down to 2 (two) seats
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The newly registered young non-voters difficult to capture by pollsters I guess - if they turnout !!0
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Why?!!TheScreamingEagles said:I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
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France, 1940TheWhiteRabbit said:If you want a laugh, imagine SeanT as a military man, perhaps Command-in-Chief.
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You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
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She will not be in office. Her replacement is the key question. Could the headbangers get one of their own this time, or would the "grown ups" thwart it? Again.SeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.0 -
Evening all. - Lib Dems +1 – must be an outlier…! 0
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Yup. Labour getting under 10 once was inevitable, its the ebb and flow of a campaign. Labour consistently within 10 under Corbyn? That's crap leadership, crap campaigning.SouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
Who are these doorstep people who say they won't vote labour under corbyn, and why are they living in a different world from whoever the pollsters contact?0 -
Which suggests Labour may have actually been further ahead if it wasn't for Manchester. Gadzooks.TheScreamingEagles said:Anthony Wells, research director at YouGov, said: “Given Theresa May’s substantial lead on taking the right decisions on terrorism it would be a mistake to assume the narrowing Tory lead is necessarily connected to the bombing. This is the first poll since the dementia tax row, and that seems a more plausible explanation.”
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Yeah we have them too in Sussex. Nick Gibb standing with Theresa May. No mention of the Conservative party. Embarrassing...foxinsoxuk said:
On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?Essexit said:Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.
Le Partie, C'est Moi!0 -
Though Jezza has had a few days practice. Don't count on him blowing it. He is no Theresa May.brokenwheel said:
The Andrew Neil interview is still on right?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
"Not one step back!"leomckinstry said:Jeremy Corbyn: The Man Who Saved the Labour Party. Who on earth would have believed that at the start of the campaign? Incredible stuff.
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I shall be doing my best to get Aaron elected.Tykejohnno said:
You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
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We agree for once - I'm not a fan of this presidential campaigning.foxinsoxuk said:
On Leics posterwatch, I have now seen Labour posters in Leicester South, LD posters in Oadby, and Harborough farmers fields supporting the Theresa May party. Does her vanity and hubris have no bounds?Essexit said:Potential upside: if May returns with a small majority and resigns, Boris or Gove can be PM.
Le Partie, C'est Moi!0 -
Very good point. I have been thinking that all week. Plus public sector workers, all of whom have been promised big pay rises. Look at the adulatory reception for Corbyn a fortnight ago when he addressed the Headteachers' Conference.blueblue said:Could we be seeing an unholy alliance of the hard left, plus Remainers, plus students and the elderly wanting free stuff? Very little in common between them, but enough to form an electoral coalition almost by chance?
If so, they'll be very surprised at what they enabled after election day.0 -
The con vote share is 43%. What was it in 2015 Mr Smithson?
More to the point what has appened to the LD share?
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Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)0 -
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Suppose this will put an end to the Twitter theories that May planned the attack to boost her ratings? 0
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For sure could have been better, but overall pretty mainstream. Mrs May will win big: about that I have not the slightest doubt.Tykejohnno said:
What did you think of the Tory manifesto Mr O ?JohnO said:
Of course they are. Max really needs to calm down.SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
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Do not worry , the next Yougov poll only has a panel of pb Conservatives !!!kle4 said:
Yup. Labour getting under 10 once was inevitable, its the ebb and flow of a campaign. Labour consistently within 10 under Corbyn? That's crap leadership, crap campaigning.SouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.
Who are these doorstep people who say they won't vote labour under corbyn, and why are they living in a different world from whoever the pollsters contact?0 -
Is it too late for George to announce he is unresigning and running for Tatton?0
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ArfSimonStClare said:Evening all. - Lib Dems +1 – must be an outlier…!
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Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.0
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"Theresa May was warned by Manchester police officer that cuts risked terror attack in the city" http://uk.businessinsider.com/theresa-may-warned-by-manchester-police-that-cuts-risked-terror-attack-2017-50
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Nuttall really shouldn't have invited his candidates to the manifesto launch0
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No, except Corbyn really is not up to the job of LOTO (and certainly not PM) and a strong campaign doesn't alter that in my view, and on this showing he would easily remain as Leader.TookieTBookie said:Need to see a lot more polls reflecting the same before any wild predictions! I agree that in the marginals the Tories will win but a larger opposition and majority of 'only' 30-40 would be no bad thing for democracy
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I guess you're doing as much campaigning with real voters as I am, right?MaxPB said:
You are completely and utterly blinkered. I have no idea why. We've gone from a 20+ point lead to a 5 point lead. All since Theresa released Timothy's manifesto. These policies are a disaster for our party. We are not the party of energy caps, higher taxes on risk takers or property theft. Fighting this battle on Ed Miliband's turf is a disaster. Theresa needs to beg Oliver Letwin's to come back and rewrite the manifesto over the long weekend and re-reveal it on Tuesday.Mortimer said:
To be honest Max, the more you moan the more popular Mrs May is in Lab/Tory marginals.MaxPB said:
Timothy is clearly a Labour sleeper agent. There's no other explanation for it. He espouses Labour policies, he wants to engage in theft of property rights and he's brought us to the edge of a Labour victory.AlastairMeeks said:Crush the saboteurs indeed.
The Tory party is greater than Mayfair he shies and low tax libertarians...
Seriously Max, get out of your hedgie bubble, talk to voters in Lab/Con marginals. You will sleep an awful lot better.0 -
May never fought a full leadership election. Corbyn won two.
It shows.0 -
Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!0
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Yes.MaxPB said:Is it too late for George to announce he is unresigning and running for Tatton?
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You don't believe the polls, or you believe the polls will turn back? If the latter, why would they?TheKitchenCabinet said:
It is absolutely hilarious. Thank God, these people were not in WWII, we would all be speaking German...RobD said:
The second wobble is always better than the firstSouthamObserver said:No-one does blind panic better than the right. It really is a sight to behold.
May and her advisers have misread public opinion. Corbyn being unelectable does not make her maggnificent. It just makes her a better choice than him, not all-conquering.0 -
Kuenssberg talking about Corbyn speech tomorrow now.0
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More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.rkrkrk said:
Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)
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I mean on here.TheScreamingEagles said:
I shall be doing my best to get Aaron elected.Tykejohnno said:
You need to get on board and support your party,it needs you ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:I'm kinda regretting the repeated hatchet jobs I did on Andrea Leadsom last June/July.
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That sounds like fun, Mr T.SeanT said:If this polls turns out accurate, TMay won't have the MPs to do ANYTHING. It's gonna be chaos.
I wonder if we will even Brexit.
If the Soft Brexit/Remain MPs in the Commons unite, they could scupper everything she tries to do, until she yields.
Precisely why did Mrs May call this unnecessary election?0 -
Oh he won't get in - but the people seem to really not to care for the idea that the Tories will have a free hand. In one sense that is good, it is just unfortunate Corbyn will be the beneficiary by default.SWR said:Good god people see sense for f**k sake - if Labour get in we are all DOOMED - we'll end up a second rate country with a second rate economy ruled by the trade unions and Marxists !!
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A month ago, Mrs May had a circa 50% lead over Corbyn in the net favourability ratings.
Now that lead is circa 15%.
She's lost 35% in a month.0 -
I am with you on that one. The disconnect between here and what happens in the real world is frightening.woody662 said:Some magnificent betting opportunities available tomorrow, time to raid the piggy bank.
It is a bit like all the hype that "Games of Thrones" gets with everyone in the media talking about it like the most important programme on TV. And then you find out it has fewer viewers than Hollyoaks....
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And then what? He's been an awful leader of the opposition and will continue to be so.SouthamObserver said:
More seats than Ed. If he does that, he stays and will be vindicated.rkrkrk said:
Would you accept that Corbyn appears to be doing better than you expected?SouthamObserver said:
It's hard to disagree. The Tories are going to win handily.isam said:The polls are wrong, that's all there is to it
What would you see as an impressive result for Corbyn (I know you don't like him - but what do you think he should be pleased with?)0 -
PB Tories - hello, how are you feeling?
But nothing to worry about, this is an outlier. You guys will win, maybe even win big.
Jeremy Corbyn is still crap!0 -
That's what I questioned in the previous thread. I don't see how SNP + Plaid can possibly be lower than about 5.2-5.3% in an actual GE. The remaining GB-wide share of less than 1% only covers the Speaker, independents and minor parties. These numbers therefore imply that the Greens are on 0%.tlg86 said:I see the others are down two to 6% - does that mean the SNP are doing badly in this poll?
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