politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’

@AidanKerrTweets: The army is now guarding 12 sites in Scotland following the Manchester bombing and the 'critical' terror threat stv.tv/news/politics/… pic.twitter.com/ARz7xCjjx6

@STVColin: Green co-convener @patrickharvie seeks reassurance anti nuclear protest will be allowed to continue at Faslane.

FFS

rcs1000 said:

FPT:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

YBarddCwsc said:

marke09 said:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion - i do not believe it - Tories to win Ceredigion?

Something's gone wrong with Baxter’s graphics, the LibDems hold the seat on the left, but his implied probabilities are wrong and he’s saying the Tories are favourites.

If the Tories scoop up the UKIP vote, they are not that far behind.

Looking back at the history of the seat I wouldn't immediately dismiss the Tories there, though 48% is way way too high in my opinion.

Strikes me as the sort of place May could have alot of appeal relative to Farron.

Of the nine current LD seats, it's probably about the third safest. Orkney & Shetland, of course, is the only genuinely safe LD seat.

A safe seat with a majority of 817?! OK, the SNP shouldn't do as well this time but I'd still say that it hardly ranks as 'the only genuinely safe LD seat'.

The LibDems polled 67.4% of the vote in (bizarrely) both the Orkney and Shetland Holyrood elections last year, getting around three times the number of votes of the SNP. The LDS will hold the seat with a big (percentage) majority later this year.

Yes, I think that's probably right. All the same, and even given the small electorate, I refuse to count any seat with a three-figure majority as 'safe'!

rural_voter said:

TOPPING said:

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:

I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.

I don't remember it being seen as a crisis when the IRA bombed a pub in Guildford in October 1974, killing four. The GE went ahead 5 days later. A month later, two more IRA bombs killed 21 people in B'ham.

We're really going to pieces if a nutter with a suicide bomb, plus his handler(s), places the country 'in crisis'. These incidents were more numerous in the 1970s than they are now.

Perhaps so, but you would have to be pretty one-eyed to think that all is well in the world right now in the UK. Not to say that I disagree that campaigning should recommence, just that there are a few balls in the air right now for Tezza.

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

If it gets Sutton and Shearer off MotD, I'm all for it...

marke09 said:

suspicious package found in the Quadrnat shopping centre in Swansea - area evacuated

If that goes off it could cause about £2.50 worth of damage.

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

The operation appears very well designed, with the army being used to relieve the more routine work of armed police (guarding government buildings, transport hubs, large events etc) to free the armed police up for more important work supporting the counter-terrorism effort. It seems an elegant solution to a temporary emergency, without requiring thousands of extra armed police to be trained and equipped for a rare event.

I think one of the papers, might have been the Daily Mail? Said this Operation has been in the planning should it ever be needed for the last two years.

PeterMannion said:

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

If it gets Sutton and Shearer off MotD, I'm all for it...

The 1990s called, they want their reference back.

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

You should have met me in the early days of PB, when I was REALLY ranty. I did better insults, then, too. Now I'm too rich, relaxed and mellow to get properly het up.

I was reading (but not posting on) PB back in the day - some of those rants were excellent.

Have you ever considered writing a "Book of Rants" - might be fun project.

Or has the Daily Mail got that market sewn up?

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

Blimey. There's an expectation on here that this will play to the government's advantage. I wouldn't be so sure.

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

Blimey. There's an expectation on here that this will play to the government's advantage. I wouldn't be so sure.

but he says the son who killed himslef is innocent and that it was another son who has been arrested

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Willard Foxton Todd @WillardFoxton

Floating voters largely, libdems and labour voters. Do you think the shouty purity of the social media left actually puts people off?

It certainly does me, and of course the 'f off and join the Tories' is a gag with some truth to it, although let's be honest, the right does look for traitors sometimes, as all those who went nuts over people like Clarke, Cameron and even, a week ago, May for not being 'true' enough indicate.

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

Blimey. There's an expectation on here that this will play to the government's advantage. I wouldn't be so sure.

Uh, it was reported yesterday that the bomber's family had largely returned to Libya. Not sure why this should be bad, or indeed good, for HMG.

Some of the comments by pb-ers imply that they don't ever read websites or newspapers. Much of the stuff being breathlessly related on here, as a revelation, has been public knowledge for hours or even days.

The more we learn about this the more it looks like the warning signs were there (unlike the bloke on Westminster Bridge). Obviously resources are limited, but it makes you wonder how bad the people they are watching are.

SeanT said:

OK in the absence of anything interesting, politically, let's speculate.

Will Manchester and the new terror threat have changed the polls?

My first instinct is Yes, surely, people will recoil from Jezbollah and cling to nurse May. In which case I would expect all the polls next week to be showing the Tories with leads of 15 points or more.

And yet, I haver, because I thought the same when Jo Cox was killed. I thought it would shift the vote to a narrow Remain win. It didn't. I was wrong

HOWEVER Manchester is on a different scale to Jo Cox. This is kids and families being massacred, and it comes after many similar atrocities across Europe. And it's an ongoing threat, not just a one off madman.

So I am gonna trust my instincts and say the polls next week will show 15 point Tory leads, or more.

What do PB-ers reckon?

My parents know Corbyn is crap. But they don't know he is a terrorist sympathysier so might not make the connection. I don't think there will be BIG movements to the tories, yet. But sizeable leads of 12%-15% are likely. Which is disappointing because Labour need to be eviscerated for putting up such a shadow cabinet before us. They must be utterly destroyed, Abbot said "every deafeat for the British state is a victory for us", pretty sure ISIS agree with every word of that. Problem is many people who don't pay attention to politics like we do will not know that quote, media *must* expose these sentiments for the treachery they are.

FrancisUrquhart said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

Burnham has uttered the nothing to do with Islam mantra today. The guy rightly called.him out on this and how it is totally counter productive.

As well as being dishonest, Interestingly a recent freakonomics podcast also provided evidence from the US that this kind of state actually doesn't even achieve the desired aim of calming matters, it was shown to stoke more anger.

One of my least favourite cliches, one that presumes we are all a mob waiting to happen, where if you acknowledge part of a group has a problem, we will descent en masse on the whole group, when I'd like to think our society is robust enough to be more than that, and denying any connection just creates anger. 'No connection to true x' would be better at least, if he said that.

It's one reason I like the BBC usually go with 'so called Islamic state' - it acknowledges what they claim and what unfortunately too many people in the world believe about their claims, but indicates skepticism of that, and the misuse of the word islamic should, one hopes, anger those who disagree with IS.

SeanT said:

Jeezo. The State of the British Left, today. Heckling police and soldiers.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867377808342908930

Most of the Left aren't like that (80% of Labour MPs have no confidence in Corbyn). It's just that Corbyn's leadership has brought all the nutters crawling out of the woodwork.

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

Blimey. There's an expectation on here that this will play to the government's advantage. I wouldn't be so sure.

Careful, Tlg, if that gets quoted out of context you could be subject to ridicule and abuse across the social media!

Anyway if there are such expectations here they have not been reflected in the betting markets, which have been virtually becalmed since the story broke.

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Willard Foxton Todd @WillardFoxton

Floating voters largely, libdems and labour voters. Do you think the shouty purity of the social media left actually puts people off?

'f off and join the Tories' is a gag with some truth to it,.

The voters may take them at their word.....

So the Great Manchester Gamesd due weekend get the go ahead - so cannot see any reason to delay resumption of campaigning

Unfortunately won't be able to listen to the podcast until tomorrow, but the surge has been so surprising (to me) that I shall definitely do so.

SeanT said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

SeanT said:

Jeezo. The State of the British Left, today. Heckling police and soldiers.

twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867377808342908930

Cancer in the Labour Party...

Watch the video, that mad Corbynite shouty woman with the very helpful Jeremy Corbyn Mug Shot Shoulderbag is surrounded by journalists filming and recording.

If any of those videos go viral, that's probably another 500,000 voters for TMay

The Guardian, Friday 9th June, 2017:

'I’ll always be a Corbynista. Jeremy was the best prime minister we never had'

by Corbynite Nelly

"The rightwing smear against Jeremy Corbyn angered me. But his bravery and integrity in the face of it was an inspiration

"Watching Jeremy’s heartbreaking speech on Friday, I couldn’t quite believe it when he mentioned the Corbynistas. It was bittersweet I suppose: that Jeremy felt the Corbynistas warranted a thank you but in the context of a resignation and not, as it should have been, a victory speech. It was an honour to know that Jeremy was thankful for the movement, and although my tears had already started flowing by then, the way that he almost smiled when he mentioned it really set me off. I have to confess that the rest of the speech was a complete blur to me.

"I know to many people it may seem silly to have got emotional over Jeremy’s resignation, but it wasn’t anything like the reaction to David Cameron leaving Downing Street, as some have carelessly compared it. We’d had the chance to have this amazing person as prime minister: a chance for equality, a chance for change, a chance for someone who truly cared about the people to lead them. To watch our country waste that chance and to see someone who had worked so unbelievably hard and was so deserving lose was utterly devastating. I don’t know when I’m going to get over that feeling of loss, that sick, hollow feeling in my stomach, when I think about what could have been. Jeremy Corbyn was the best prime minister we never had!"

tlg86 said:

SeanT said:

tlg86 said:

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that the Associated Press have found the father of the bomber, in Tripoli.
Mcr police presser about to start.

Blimey. There's an expectation on here that this will play to the government's advantage. I wouldn't be so sure.

Uh, it was reported yesterday that the bomber's family had largely returned to Libya. Not sure why this should be bad, or indeed good, for HMG.

Some of the comments by pb-ers imply that they don't ever read websites or newspapers. Much of the stuff being breathlessly related on here, as a revelation, has been public knowledge for hours or even days.

The more we learn about this the more it looks like the warning signs were there (unlike the bloke on Westminster Bridge). Obviously resources are limited, but it makes you wonder how bad the people they are watching are.

Hmm I think security is a tremendously hard job. I think the poor sods have a VERY tough job to do, and not all of it can become apparent. Hindsight is a wonderful thing here.
Hopefully there are some decent backchannels into the mosques, I can't see why there wouldn't be - 99.99% of muslims just want a peaceful life.

It's irreligious, and definitely different but the "cosplay/anime" community was generally delighted when Ryan Gentle got done for sexual assault/fraud https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/23/british-serial-entrepreneur-missing-bitcoin-apparently-stolen

Ignore the loud mouth and focus on this instead

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867372898146766848

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

Burnham has uttered the nothing to do with Islam mantra today. The guy rightly called.him out on this and how it is totally counter productive.

As well as being dishonest, Interestingly a recent freakonomics podcast also provided evidence from the US that this kind of state actually doesn't even achieve the desired aim of calming matters, it was shown to stoke more anger.

One of my least favourite cliches, one that presumes we are all a mob waiting to happen, where if you acknowledge part of a group has a problem, we will descent en masse on the whole group, when I'd like to think our society is robust enough to be more than that, and denying any connection just creates anger. 'No connection to true x' would be better at least, if he said that.

It's one reason I like the BBC usually go with 'so called Islamic state' - it acknowledges what they claim and what unfortunately too many people in the world believe about their claims, but indicates skepticism of that, and the misuse of the word islamic should, one hopes, anger those who disagree with IS.

Yes, of course.

It is as absurd to think of Islam as a single strand of thought as it would be to think of Judeo-Christianity that way.

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Scott_P said:

JWisemann said:

A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

@Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".

A hardy perennial

http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/terrorismalert.asp

That's funny!

Current humour

https://www.indy100.com/article/terror-threat-level-britain-manchester-arena-attack-twitter-viral-7753481?amp

jonny83 said:

Sandpit said:

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

The operation appears very well designed, with the army being used to relieve the more routine work of armed police (guarding government buildings, transport hubs, large events etc) to free the armed police up for more important work supporting the counter-terrorism effort. It seems an elegant solution to a temporary emergency, without requiring thousands of extra armed police to be trained and equipped for a rare event.

I think one of the papers, might have been the Daily Mail? Said this Operation has been in the planning should it ever be needed for the last two years.

Yes, and it's actually a very good idea. Most coppers don't want to be armed and it's not too difficult to train up the red berets in the more routine aspects of armed police work, for the one week in a decade when something comes up.

There's whole departments at the Cabinet Office and Home Office who do disaster planning, good to see that they do actually have these things ready to go when required.

SeanT said:

OK in the absence of anything interesting, politically, let's speculate.

Will Manchester and the new terror threat have changed the polls?

My first instinct is Yes, surely, people will recoil from Jezbollah and cling to nurse May. In which case I would expect all the polls next week to be showing the Tories with leads of 15 points or more.

And yet, I haver, because I thought the same when Jo Cox was killed. I thought it would shift the vote to a narrow Remain win. It didn't. I was wrong

HOWEVER Manchester is on a different scale to Jo Cox. This is kids and families being massacred, and it comes after many similar atrocities across Europe. And it's an ongoing threat, not just a one off madman.

So I am gonna trust my instincts and say the polls next week will show 15 point Tory leads, or more.

What do PB-ers reckon?

I always think it's irrational that voters should rally round a govt that's apparently failed in its duty to protect them, but people are irrational. e.g. the idea that best solution to 9/11 was to give more power to GWBush...

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Jeezo. The State of the British Left, today. Heckling police and soldiers.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867377808342908930

Soldiers are not known for their people skills. I wonder if this is trying to provoke a reaction. If JC was anysort of decent person he would issue a stern warning notto provoke anyone at this difficult time.

To be fair to her, Shami had a good try last night:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/867141070366179328

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ignore the loud mouth and focus on this instead

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867372898146766848

That's the way to do it!

I don't reckon that this will shift the polls much, those that cared about Jez's history will still be voting May, those that believe that the talking approach is the right way to go, will believe that May is at fault. Perhaps there'll be a slightly greater swing in the WWC areas though.

SeanT said:

OK in the absence of anything interesting, politically, let's speculate.

Will Manchester and the new terror threat have changed the polls?

My first instinct is Yes, surely, people will recoil from Jezbollah and cling to nurse May. In which case I would expect all the polls next week to be showing the Tories with leads of 15 points or more.

And yet, I haver, because I thought the same when Jo Cox was killed. I thought it would shift the vote to a narrow Remain win. It didn't. I was wrong

HOWEVER Manchester is on a different scale to Jo Cox. This is kids and families being massacred, and it comes after many similar atrocities across Europe. And it's an ongoing threat, not just a one off madman.

So I am gonna trust my instincts and say the polls next week will show 15 point Tory leads, or more.

What do PB-ers reckon?

Well, I tripled my bet on Labour registering less that 100 seats on betfair...

SeanT said:

Sandpit said:

Blue_rog said:

SeanT said:

Jeezo. The State of the British Left, today. Heckling police and soldiers.

https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/867377808342908930

Soldiers are not known for their people skills. I wonder if this is trying to provoke a reaction. If JC was anysort of decent person he would issue a stern warning notto provoke anyone at this difficult time.

To be fair to her, Shami had a good try last night:
https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status/867141070366179328

She was unusually nervous, hesitant and even emotional during that interview. I kept wondering if she was gonna burst into tears. This could, of course, be a reaction to the horror of Manchester, but I wonder if she has been rattled and wounded by all the criticism of her position with Corbyn, her hypocrisy about wealth, and so on.

After all, she's used to being an Oymplic-flag carrying heroine, not a much-loathed turncoat. It must have come as a horrible shock.

She also mentioned a couple of times that she was not a Privy Councillor.....

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Pulpstar said:

Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?

Cross the road to St Pancras and get Thameslink to City Thameslink station, can't be more than 5 minutes from there.

You want the North exit of City Thameslink, and walk down Newgate Street to St Martin's Le Grande and turn left. So the rear of the Thameslink train from St Pancras.

Anorak said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

kle4 said:

Explaining the surge? Easy. There's been a surge.

Scott_P said:

Blue_rog said:

I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

@TRobinsonNewEra: We need to build our own Guantanamo in the Falkland Islands and send every single UK Jihad supporter there till this struggle is WON

@falklands_utd: Thanks, but no thanks. twitter.com/trobinsonnewer…

I suppose Ascension Island is out of the question too. Hmm. No one lives on the South Sandwich Isles, do they?

Buckle Island would be my choice to keep them.

Rockall. You could get a cottage industry going, taking tourists out in a boat to point and laugh.

If it ain't broke, why fix it? Just send them to Aus.

Sean_F said:

nunu said:

kle4 said:

nunu said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

CarlottaVance said:

John Mann @JohnMannMP
You don't get it. These are security decisions based on intelligence. This was their call not Theresa May's. She ought to point this out.


Owen Jones @OwenJones84
I really don't feel soldiers toting guns on the streets of Britain during an election campaign is reassuring. How do others feel?

I agree with John Mann...there I said it...now I must go and take a shower...

Owen Jones is a fucking twat. He knows it will have a subliminal effect. People going to the polling booths will rightly think "hmm do I really want to risk Jeremy Corbyn at *this* time really? Nah I can't risk it". And that is his own fault for voting for a terrorist sympathyiser twice.

If many people don't find him objectionable or dangerous the comparison may not lead to as big an impact as you think.

he is seen as incompetent, that is a killer.

Do people want him, Abbott, and McDonnell in charge of the security services? We know how the public will answer that question.

Depends how much difference people will think it will make. By and large our armed forces, intelligence services, and police do a good job, and they do that day to day with little govt interference. Corbyn hasn't made any announcements that would damage our capabilities; in fact the manifesto proposes to undo some of the govt's police cuts.

Sean_F said:

SeanT said:

OK in the absence of anything interesting, politically, let's speculate.

Will Manchester and the new terror threat have changed the polls?

My first instinct is Yes, surely, people will recoil from Jezbollah and cling to nurse May. In which case I would expect all the polls next week to be showing the Tories with leads of 15 points or more.

And yet, I haver, because I thought the same when Jo Cox was killed. I thought it would shift the vote to a narrow Remain win. It didn't. I was wrong

HOWEVER Manchester is on a different scale to Jo Cox. This is kids and families being massacred, and it comes after many similar atrocities across Europe. And it's an ongoing threat, not just a one off madman.

So I am gonna trust my instincts and say the polls next week will show 15 point Tory leads, or more.

What do PB-ers reckon?

My view is that it reinforces all of Theresa May's positives, and all the negatives of Jeremy Corbyn and his associates. And, bringing peoples' minds back to defence and security helps the Conservatives. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the polls move back to 20% leads for the Conservatives briefly, before shifting back to 10-15% as polling day approaches.

I don't expect a huge shift in the polls, but the fact that the uppermost thought of many voters at the ballot box will be "Who will keep me and my family safe from attack?" instead of "Who won't take my house if I develop dementia?" is worth a colossal number of votes on the day.

Dadge said:

SeanT said:

OK in the absence of anything interesting, politically, let's speculate.

Will Manchester and the new terror threat have changed the polls?

My first instinct is Yes, surely, people will recoil from Jezbollah and cling to nurse May. In which case I would expect all the polls next week to be showing the Tories with leads of 15 points or more.

And yet, I haver, because I thought the same when Jo Cox was killed. I thought it would shift the vote to a narrow Remain win. It didn't. I was wrong

HOWEVER Manchester is on a different scale to Jo Cox. This is kids and families being massacred, and it comes after many similar atrocities across Europe. And it's an ongoing threat, not just a one off madman.

So I am gonna trust my instincts and say the polls next week will show 15 point Tory leads, or more.

What do PB-ers reckon?

I always think it's irrational that voters should rally round a govt that's apparently failed in its duty to protect them, but people are irrational. e.g. the idea that best solution to 9/11 was to give more power to GWBush...

Yes the rational approach is definitely "Theresa May and Government cannot protect my family, I must rationally support the other lot". Closely followed by "Wait a minute that's Jeremy ' Stop the war no justified military action since ww2' Corbyn, Diane 'can't add up' Abbott and John 'Friend of republicanism' Mcdonnell. I would be insane to trust my family to them"

Christopher Hope @christopherhope
It looks likely #ge2017 campaign won't start til Monday... "Tom Watson announces his campaign is on hold" http://po.st/5d1wOJ via @po_st

Monday? way too long, especially as it's a bank holiday/half-term.

Edit: Or not?

Kevin Schofield‏ @PolhomeEditor
BREAKING Jeremy Corbyn tells staff at Labour HQ that local campaigning will resume tomorrow, with the national campaign re-starting Friday.

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

kle4 said:

Explaining the surge? Easy. There's been a surge.

Scott_P said:

Blue_rog said:

I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

@TRobinsonNewEra: We need to build our own Guantanamo in the Falkland Islands and send every single UK Jihad supporter there till this struggle is WON

@falklands_utd: Thanks, but no thanks. twitter.com/trobinsonnewer…

I suppose Ascension Island is out of the question too. Hmm. No one lives on the South Sandwich Isles, do they?

Buckle Island would be my choice to keep them.

Rockall. You could get a cottage industry going, taking tourists out in a boat to point and laugh.

Nah. We should send them to somewhere REALLY horrible, bleak and hostile. The obvious place is Luton.

Half of them are there already, so we'd save money.

What has Sean Fear ever done to you ?!?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

kjh said:

SeanT said:

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

You should have met me in the early days of PB, when I was REALLY ranty. I did better insults, then, too. Now I'm too rich, relaxed and mellow to get properly het up.

I was a very regular poster in the early days and you and I had an argument about the existence of God. It went on for quite a few posts and into the realms of LSD trips. I got away with not a single insult thrown at me and thought that a proper result, although I might regret bringing that up now.

The neurophysiological model of religiosity - mind-bending drugs led to humanity's first experiences of the supernatural, leading to eg. Lascaux cave paintings during the Ice Age.

And it clearly wasn't the last.

Pong said:

CarlottaVance said:

John Mann @JohnMannMP
You don't get it. These are security decisions based on intelligence. This was their call not Theresa May's. She ought to point this out.


Owen Jones @OwenJones84
I really don't feel soldiers toting guns on the streets of Britain during an election campaign is reassuring. How do others feel?

Not sure about that from John Mann, although I'm not in a position to know.

Putting soldiers on the streets was surely Theresa May's call?

It's pretty fundamental to being a democracy - all decisions are ultimately made by elected people. It's not some technical process that TM purely observes, like X means threat is critical, critical threat means troops on the streets, or whatever.

No, I think John Mann is wrong.

Unelected Intel people may advise, but the PM decides.

Yes and no. If I understand correctly, raising the threat level automatically triggers this response. Now, that plan will have had to have been signed off by government ministers and given the importance of it, I'd expect the PM to have been one of them. But I'd be surprised if the decision to deploy troops now was the PMs. She could, presumably, request amendments to it (indeed, I'd have thought that'd be one thing discussed at COBRA) but I'd have thought that the basic deployment would need to go ahead according to the plan - otherwise there'd be all sorts of discrepancies, inconsistencies and overlaps.

Dadge said:

Latest Labour campaign slogan: "If you decide to vote for May instead now, the terrorists have won."

You're making that up aren't you ?

Pulpstar said:

Dadge said:

Latest Labour campaign slogan: "If you decide to vote for May instead now, the terrorists have won."

You're making that up aren't you ?

I had to read it a couple of times. The fact we're even asking the question says a lot about today's Labour Party.

@tykejohno Who did she vote @ GE 2015 ?