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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’

SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’ and predictions for June

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast, Keiran is joined by Matt Singh and Leo Barasi to discuss the tightening polls and what might happen in June. The team discuss whether Labour’s recent poll surge is ‘real’ and what might be behind it. Matt unveils his analysis of what will happen in June based on his model. A model which succesfully predicted the 2015 General Election when all of the polls said the race was close.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    Firstish... ?
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Second
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    It's lonely at the top.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    edited May 2017
    4th (not) like Arsenal?
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,541
    oh well, missed the medal spots.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    When was the podcast recorded?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fpt;
    Pong said:

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    https://twitter.com/mama_tuna/status/867101646383435781
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Carolus_Rex said:

    When was the podcast recorded?

    Last night.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    jonny83 said:

    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

    Tanks at Heathrow next?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    jonny83 said:

    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

    (Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    When was the podcast recorded?

    Last night.
    Thanks.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Nigelb said:

    jonny83 said:

    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

    (Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
    It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Rhubarb said:

    Nigelb said:

    jonny83 said:

    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

    (Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
    It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.
    True, though it didn't work on the chap with wings either!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

    After events of the last couple of days, anything could happen now. It's the blackest of black swans, the story is still very much live and could be right up to Election Day.

    The spreads have barely moved in the last 48 hours though, still midpoints of 385 and 176 seats for Con and Lab respectively with Spreadex.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    edited May 2017
    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Raid under way in central manchester.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,408
    nunu said:

    https://twitter.com/mama_tuna/status/867101646383435781

    Having looked more closely... I think j from chelsea must be from abroad
    No one British would need to say Birmingham in the UK... possibly a yank given Birmingham Alabama.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything, just honest level headed assessment.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Pong said:

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

    What is fv pong?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,408
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    isam said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Pong said:

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

    What is fv pong?
    fv as in favourite?

    Cons 350-399 @ 2.08/2.1
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    rkrkrk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

    Burnham has uttered the nothing to do with Islam mantra today. The guy rightly called.him out on this and how it is totally counter productive.

    As well as being dishonest, Interestingly a recent freakonomics podcast also provided evidence from the US that this kind of state actually doesn't even achieve the desired aim of calming matters, it was shown to stoke more anger.
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    What's going on with Radio 5 live?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    edited May 2017
    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
    Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    dyedwoolie said:

    Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester

    This would be a very significant development if so.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
    If they have any sense they will let crosby and Messina do their stuff and follow their advice to the letter. I bet crosby isn't sitting on his hands doing nothing during this downtime.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    What's going on with Radio 5 live?

    Talking about submarines??
  • TwistedFireStopperTwistedFireStopper Posts: 2,538
    Slackbladder said:

    TwistedFireStopper said:

    What's going on with Radio 5 live?

    Talking about submarines??
    They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    SeanT said:

    Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

    I don't think it will work like that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    SeanT said:

    Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

    The "stop" period when anything significant happens always seems a bit long to me in modern life. The Albert square gathering was quite right - and I think flowers will be laid for this for the next decade or so. But the country should go on !
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    How long before Tony Walsh appears on QT?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    TwistedFireStopper said:

    Slackbladder said:

    TwistedFireStopper said:

    What's going on with Radio 5 live?

    Talking about submarines??
    They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories
    Looks like they've had to evacuate the building!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    Radio 5.

    https://twitter.com/RadioToday/status/867363421494419456

    Media City evacuated
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Rhubarb said:

    Nigelb said:

    jonny83 said:

    Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

    Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

    (Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.
    It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.
    True, though it didn't work on the chap with wings either!
    Paul McCartney?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Pulpstar said:

    SeanT said:

    Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

    The "stop" period when anything significant happens always seems a bit long to me in modern life. The Albert square gathering was quite right - and I think flowers will be laid for this for the next decade or so. But the country should go on !
    Quite so, but I'm expecting increased security at Wembley on Saturday (maybe not increased at Wentworth though!).
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
    Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
    True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    rkrkrk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

    A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    dyedwoolie said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Sky reporting they believe troops were used as part of raid in central Manchester

    This would be a very significant development if so.
    I can't see it - super different MO. Just doesn't fit in with current circs. Then again, current circs are pretty out there right now.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
    Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
    True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.
    As a matter of interest, are there particular demographics that are more likely to cast postal votes than others?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pong said:

    isam said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Pong said:

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

    What is fv pong?
    fv as in favourite?

    Cons 350-399 @ 2.08/2.1
    A fifty seat band is evens! Quite remarkable.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
    This has been reported by frank Gardner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,106
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
    Well I am here in Canada and watching Canadian/US tv. Fly home tonight though
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
    Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    david_herdson said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

    Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

    Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

    Manchester has changed everything

    There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.
    Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play
    True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.
    Not all postal votes have arrived yet?? My disabled client only received his today.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    SeanT said:

    Blue_rog said:

    rkrkrk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

    A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
    I'm not sure "Scandinavian deradicalisation programmes" are really that admirable and exemplary, given the atmosphere in, say, Sweden.
    Aren't most ofthe problems from the migrants rather than second gen?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    FPT:
    david_herdson said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    YBarddCwsc said:

    marke09 said:

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion - i do not believe it - Tories to win Ceredigion?

    Something's gone wrong with Baxter’s graphics, the LibDems hold the seat on the left, but his implied probabilities are wrong and he’s saying the Tories are favourites.

    If the Tories scoop up the UKIP vote, they are not that far behind.
    Looking back at the history of the seat I wouldn't immediately dismiss the Tories there, though 48% is way way too high in my opinion.

    Strikes me as the sort of place May could have alot of appeal relative to Farron.
    Of the nine current LD seats, it's probably about the third safest. Orkney & Shetland, of course, is the only genuinely safe LD seat.
    A safe seat with a majority of 817?! OK, the SNP shouldn't do as well this time but I'd still say that it hardly ranks as 'the only genuinely safe LD seat'.
    The LibDems polled 67.4% of the vote in (bizarrely) both the Orkney and Shetland Holyrood elections last year, getting around three times the number of votes of the SNP. The LDS will hold the seat with a big (percentage) majority later this year.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Radio 5 Live now back in studio
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    edited May 2017
    marke09 said:

    Radio 5 Live now back in studio

    Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Sadly it always looked like that was the case, hence the heightened security. This wasn't a lone nutter, the bomb was made by someone who knew what they were doing. Terrorists traditionally keep the bomb maker in the background, and they've every reason to think he's still out there and might be making another one.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    CarlottaVance said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
    Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago
    Are we suppressing it here then?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??
    Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago
    Are we suppressing it here then?
    Might have been D noticed whilst operations are underway
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    edited May 2017
    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    Well i got Lib Dem leaflet through post (prob too late to stop the delivery) Labourtweeted last night that local campaigning should restart today
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    marke09 said:

    SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

    Spared John Terry in playing full kit celebrating....
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    marke09 said:

    Radio 5 Live now back in studio

    Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....
    Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

    Shows the public that they are doing something
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    JackW said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    marke09 said:

    Radio 5 Live now back in studio

    Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....
    Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?
    Now squeaky Osborne has gone all healthy, would definitely be a decaf.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    marke09 said:

    SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

    That's just 'cause they're expecting to get whipped by Arsenal.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

    They got that dangerous Sir Cliff bang to rights though, didn't they. Oh, they didn't?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    SandyRentool said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
    I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.
    Then she should delegate to the Party Chair. Running the country means being able to multi-task effectively no matter what the pressures. It is one of the reasons that I wouldn't trust Corbyn with the job - I suspect he would be a 'ditherer'.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

    Photo does look more like a mule than a mastermind
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    SandyRentool said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
    That's true and (as a Tory) it's why I hope she leads on this rather than Lord Professor Nuttall.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230

    Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
    As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

    Willard Foxton Todd @WillardFoxton

    Floating voters largely, libdems and labour voters. Do you think the shouty purity of the social media left actually puts people off?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    TudorRose said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    She might be a bit busy with more pressing concerns at the moment.
    Then she should delegate to the Party Chair. Running the country means being able to multi-task effectively no matter what the pressures. It is one of the reasons that I wouldn't trust Corbyn with the job - I suspect he would be a 'ditherer'.
    Ridiculous. He would have swiftly moved to criticize the true enemy that forced the poor man to blow himself up: Israel.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,408
    edited May 2017
    Blue_rog said:

    rkrkrk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

    A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
    One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

    I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

    Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Amber Rudd seems to be doing a half decent job, interesting how nut-job M Fallon is kept out of the picture.
  • JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    edited May 2017
    A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    JWisemann said:

    A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

    @Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    rkrkrk said:

    Blue_rog said:

    rkrkrk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

    Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.
    I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.
    The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

    A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

    https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/
    One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

    I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

    Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.
    I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Blue_rog said:

    I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

    @TRobinsonNewEra: We need to build our own Guantanamo in the Falkland Islands and send every single UK Jihad supporter there till this struggle is WON

    @falklands_utd: Thanks, but no thanks. twitter.com/trobinsonnewer…
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SandyRentool said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
    Am seeing individual Labour MPs saying they are going to start up again tomorrow.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Sandpit said:

    Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

    As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Pulpstar said:

    As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    JWisemann said:

    A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

    "Country in crisis" is normally only applied when Facebook or Snapchat are down.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230
    Scott_P said:

    JWisemann said:

    A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

    @Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".
    A hardy perennial

    http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/terrorismalert.asp
  • Alice_AforethoughtAlice_Aforethought Posts: 772
    edited May 2017
    Blue_rog said:

    I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

    Or just somewhere in Scotland. Brutal but effective.

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,497
    Sandpit said:

    Pong said:

    fpt;

    Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

    Good luck getting that laid.

    After events of the last couple of days, anything could happen now. It's the blackest of black swans, the story is still very much live and could be right up to Election Day.

    The spreads have barely moved in the last 48 hours though, still midpoints of 385 and 176 seats for Con and Lab respectively with Spreadex.
    The spreads moved a little one way and then back a shede. That's a very helpful indication that the markets are in equilibrium. When there's a consistent movement one way, you never know how much money is piling up behind the next move. Now we know the billy bunters are thinking very much in terms of an outcome close to the figures you give.
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    TOPPING said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
    I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.
    I don't remember it being seen as a crisis when the IRA bombed a pub in Guildford in October 1974, killing four. The GE went ahead 5 days later. A month later, two more IRA bombs killed 21 people in B'ham.

    We're really going to pieces if a nutter with a suicide bomb, plus his handler(s), places the country 'in crisis'. These incidents were more numerous in the 1970s than they are now.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    Scott_P said:

    Pulpstar said:

    As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120
    Military Coup! That's one way to get rid of May.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    CarlottaVance said:


    Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
    As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

    Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?

    It depends whether you name is JohnO ....
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,043
    DanSmith said:

    SandyRentool said:

    TudorRose said:

    I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

    I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

    It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.
    Am seeing individual Labour MPs saying they are going to start up again tomorrow.
    LD say cross party agreement to start local campaigning now, national campaigning tomorrow.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,230

    John Mann @JohnMannMP
    You don't get it. These are security decisions based on intelligence. This was their call not Theresa May's. She ought to point this out.


    Owen Jones @OwenJones84
    I really don't feel soldiers toting guns on the streets of Britain during an election campaign is reassuring. How do others feel?
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Guy on SKY said it wasnt unexpected as we are nearing the month of Ramadan and ISIS try and do a big event before the month begins
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,755
    Nigelb said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
    As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

    Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

    Just what I thought!

    The far left are intolerant and self-righteous.
    The far right are intolerant and angry.

    I think Nick Cohen got it the wrong way round.
This discussion has been closed.