politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Explaining the Labour ‘surge’

Second

4th (not) like Arsenal?

When was the podcast recorded?

Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

Carolus_Rex said:

When was the podcast recorded?

Last night.

jonny83 said:

Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.

Nigelb said:

jonny83 said:

Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.

It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything, just honest level headed assessment.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

Burnham has uttered the nothing to do with Islam mantra today. The guy rightly called.him out on this and how it is totally counter productive.

As well as being dishonest, Interestingly a recent freakonomics podcast also provided evidence from the US that this kind of state actually doesn't even achieve the desired aim of calming matters, it was shown to stoke more anger.

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

If they have any sense they will let crosby and Messina do their stuff and follow their advice to the letter. I bet crosby isn't sitting on his hands doing nothing during this downtime.

Slackbladder said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

What's going on with Radio 5 live?

Talking about submarines??

They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories

SeanT said:

Campaigning, polling and Andrew Neil interviewing should start again by Friday at the very latest. Enough already. We are adults. We can grieve and think at the same time.

The "stop" period when anything significant happens always seems a bit long to me in modern life. The Albert square gathering was quite right - and I think flowers will be laid for this for the next decade or so. But the country should go on !

TwistedFireStopper said:

Slackbladder said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

What's going on with Radio 5 live?

Talking about submarines??

They keep saying they can't bring us the scheduled programme and ate just playing old stories

Looks like they've had to evacuate the building!

Carolus_Rex said:

Rhubarb said:

Nigelb said:

jonny83 said:

Feels kind of surreal seeing the pictures of armed soldiers on the streets around Parliament and I assume elsewhere across the country. But totally a necessary move if the intelligence points to a real threat of attack in the coming days.

Happy to see the government going to such lengths to protect people.

(Possibly ridiculously) it reminds me of 1970s Dr. Who, when the Brigadier and his brigade seemed to turn out at the drop of a sonic screwdriver.

It's a shame this isn't all going to get solved with five rounds rapid.

True, though it didn't work on the chap with wings either!

Paul McCartney?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

As a matter of interest, are there particular demographics that are more likely to cast postal votes than others?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

Well I am here in Canada and watching Canadian/US tv. Fly home tonight though

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

david_herdson said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

On the restart of the GE campaign Theresa May is to attend with Trump the NATO meeting in Brussels tomorrow and then the G7 in Italy at the weekend.

Here in Canada the media are showing Trudeau leaving for both meetings and confirming that the Manchester attack will be the main business in both and that Theresa May will chair the G7 meeting on security.

Any idea that the GE campaign will just resume normally is not going to happen as the media move to the coverage of these meetings. Theresa May with the World leaders and press conferences with photo opportunities, together with the on going investigations in the UK, will crowd out the campaign

Manchester has changed everything

There are still 10 days to polling day after the weekend. Whether Labour can wrench the narrative back to social care is another matter. I'd expect the Con message to be back on Plan A, with an added focus on leadership and the May/Corbyn forced choice.

Yes but of course the postal votes will be in play

True, but maybe 20% of votes cast max, so even a 5% swing in the campaign after this week (which itself is highly unlikely), would produce a 1% overall effect. That's not negligible but nor is it decisive.

Not all postal votes have arrived yet?? My disabled client only received his today.

FPT:

david_herdson said:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

YBarddCwsc said:

marke09 said:

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Ceredigion - i do not believe it - Tories to win Ceredigion?

Something's gone wrong with Baxter’s graphics, the LibDems hold the seat on the left, but his implied probabilities are wrong and he’s saying the Tories are favourites.

If the Tories scoop up the UKIP vote, they are not that far behind.

Looking back at the history of the seat I wouldn't immediately dismiss the Tories there, though 48% is way way too high in my opinion.

Strikes me as the sort of place May could have alot of appeal relative to Farron.

Of the nine current LD seats, it's probably about the third safest. Orkney & Shetland, of course, is the only genuinely safe LD seat.

A safe seat with a majority of 817?! OK, the SNP shouldn't do as well this time but I'd still say that it hardly ranks as 'the only genuinely safe LD seat'.

The LibDems polled 67.4% of the vote in (bizarrely) both the Orkney and Shetland Holyrood elections last year, getting around three times the number of votes of the SNP. The LDS will hold the seat with a big (percentage) majority later this year.

I am never really sure how helpful to anybody tv crews running around following police raids and theedcamped outside while the police are trying to do their job.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Sadly it always looked like that was the case, hence the heightened security. This wasn't a lone nutter, the bomb was made by someone who knew what they were doing. Terrorists traditionally keep the bomb maker in the background, and they've every reason to think he's still out there and might be making another one.

TheWhiteRabbit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Carolus_Rex said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Why the **** are we getting all the news from across the Atlantic??

Frank Gardner BBC Security correspondent tweeted to this effect several hours ago

Are we suppressing it here then?

Might have been D noticed whilst operations are underway

SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

TudorRose said:

I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

Well i got Lib Dem leaflet through post (prob too late to stop the delivery) Labourtweeted last night that local campaigning should restart today

FrancisUrquhart said:

marke09 said:

Radio 5 Live now back in studio

Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....

Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?

JackW said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

marke09 said:

Radio 5 Live now back in studio

Hopefully just an unattended vegan fairtrade soya latte....

Was the in-studio guest the editor of the London Evening Standard?

Now squeaky Osborne has gone all healthy, would definitely be a decaf.

marke09 said:

SKY: Chelsea cancel their victory parade due at weekend

That's just 'cause they're expecting to get whipped by Arsenal.

SandyRentool said:

TudorRose said:

I've just read (BBC website) that UKIP are planning to recommence campaigning tomorrow by launching their manifesto. Labour also now muttering about the need to get on with things.

I hope TMay comes out soon and sets a clear framework for when the campaign will get underway again; otherwise she's at risk of looking... well, not strong and stable.

It isn't for May to decide. If all of the other parties think we should get going again on Thursday, the Tories would have to fall in line.

I think the footsoldiers are champing at the bit; but then most of them don't have a country in the middle of a crisis to run.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Canada TV reporting that the attacker was a mule and that there is an expert bomb maker at large

Photo does look more like a mule than a mastermind

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Willard Foxton Todd @WillardFoxton

Floating voters largely, libdems and labour voters. Do you think the shouty purity of the social media left actually puts people off?

Blue_rog said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/

One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.

A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

rkrkrk said:

Blue_rog said:

rkrkrk said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Bloke from quillam foundation giving Andy Burnham both barrels now on sky...He is talking a lot of sense.

Haras Rafiq. He's very good, we need to hear more voices from moderate Muslims like this.

I agreed with pretty much everything he said. No sugar coating anything.

The organisation has previous with Andy Burnham:
https://www.quilliaminternational.com/responding-to-andy-burnham-why-the-prevent-strategy-does-not-legitimise-islamophobia-haydar-zaki/

A very powerful piece and something I agree with wholeheartedly

https://www.quilliaminternational.com/cheif-executive-haras-rafiq-platitudes-are-no-longer-enough-we-muslims-must-hold-our-community-religious-leaders-and-mosques-to-account/

One thing that strikes me as strange is that the length of terrorism sentences is determined at the time of sentencing. But if we think the person is still has terrorist sympathies etc. when the time is up we let them go? And hope to monitor?

I'm not a lawyer - but feels like some kind of proof/assessment that someone is de-radicalised might be an idea? Almost like how (I imagine) people who are sectioned for mental health aren't let out until we think they are safe....

Edit - I should add - this could be a really stupid idea I haven't thought through.

I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

Blue_rog said:

I quite like that idea, especially if we had a speciality prison built on some uninhabited Scottish island - Guinard perhaps.

@TRobinsonNewEra: We need to build our own Guantanamo in the Falkland Islands and send every single UK Jihad supporter there till this struggle is WON

@falklands_utd: Thanks, but no thanks. twitter.com/trobinsonnewer…

Sandpit said:

Sky reporting that SAS were involved in a raid at a residential address in Manchester City centre this lunchtime.

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

Pulpstar said:

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

Scott_P said:

JWisemann said:

A country in crisis? Jesus christ people need to get a grip. It's a horrible atrocity but it's hardly the Blitz, is it?

@Jeremy_JCook: We're British. I don't get scared until the threat level hits "Replacement Bus Service".

A hardy perennial

http://www.snopes.com/politics/satire/terrorismalert.asp

Sandpit said:

Pong said:

fpt;

Someone wants to bet £14981 @ 20/1 on the cons winning 450-499 seats.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131100521

Good luck getting that laid.

After events of the last couple of days, anything could happen now. It's the blackest of black swans, the story is still very much live and could be right up to Election Day.

The spreads have barely moved in the last 48 hours though, still midpoints of 385 and 176 seats for Con and Lab respectively with Spreadex.

The spreads moved a little one way and then back a shede. That's a very helpful indication that the markets are in equilibrium. When there's a consistent movement one way, you never know how much money is piling up behind the next move. Now we know the billy bunters are thinking very much in terms of an outcome close to the figures you give.

Scott_P said:

Pulpstar said:

As I say, there is no need for the Tories to resume campaigning any time soon - "Maggie sends in our boys from the SAS"

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/867374321932677120

Military Coup! That's one way to get rid of May.

Pulpstar said:

Can't decide my train tickets for the PB meetup. How long does it take to get from Kings Cross to the pub ?

It depends whether you name is JohnO ....

John Mann @JohnMannMP
You don't get it. These are security decisions based on intelligence. This was their call not Theresa May's. She ought to point this out.


Owen Jones @OwenJones84
I really don't feel soldiers toting guns on the streets of Britain during an election campaign is reassuring. How do others feel?

Nigelb said:

CarlottaVance said:

Nick Cohen @NickCohen4
As someone once said, it may even have been me: "The Right looks for converts. The Left looks for traitors."

Not if the last couple of months of SeanT posts are anything to go by.

Just what I thought!

The far left are intolerant and self-righteous.
The far right are intolerant and angry.

I think Nick Cohen got it the wrong way round.