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I've turned all Finbarr Saunders at you saying Rolf Harris frequented your harvester.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Rolf Harris used to frequent my local Harvester.williamglenn said:Isn't Rolf Harris a constituent of Theresa May?
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No it isn't. The poll implies a Tory majority of 80-100. If that's a corker for Labour, right after its manifesto bounce, the party is in a worse position than even I feared it was.TheScreamingEagles said:
An 8% increase in Labour's share of the vote is a corker.bobajobPB said:
Hardly the corker the increasingly hyperbolic Ben Page implied it was. Exactly what I would expect! Beware pollsters ramping their own polls...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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It is over for Farron though. Who is in the other two LibDem seats on this?tlg86 said:Baxtering that Ipsos Mori gives:
Conservatives 371
Labour 204
Lib Dems 4
Ukip 0
Green 1
SNP 49
Plaid 3
NI 18
Tory majority of 92.0 -
Do people think "Grand Marshal Corbyn's Patriotic Meme Collective" is *really* a pro-Corbyn group? "No, really, it is not a joke, lazy journalist person."Blue_rog said:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/jeremy-corbyn-supporters-plan-general-election-victory-party/
Bit of a joke. What pub can hold 3000 party goers?
Although, actually...0 -
Might send panic through the markets.TheScreamingEagles said:
An 8% increase in Labour's share of the vote is a corker.bobajobPB said:
Hardly the corker the increasingly hyperbolic Ben Page implied it was. Exactly what I would expect! Beware pollsters ramping their own polls...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Outlier klaxon!TheScreamingEagles said:
An 8% increase in Labour's share of the vote is a corker.bobajobPB said:
Hardly the corker the increasingly hyperbolic Ben Page implied it was. Exactly what I would expect! Beware pollsters ramping their own polls...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Twitter Left are not interested in leads but in vote share. Crucial thing about this poll is that the Labour vote share is soft.bobajobPB said:tlg86 said:
Blimey.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)
That's a 15pt lead for the Tories who are scooping up nearly half the electorate. So what? That's a devastating defeat for Labour. What we would expect.
Exit poll time on June 8th should be something.0 -
I've always said that 200 seats is the 'cut off' for labour having a bad election and a disaster.tlg86 said:Baxtering that Ipsos Mori gives:
Conservatives 371
Labour 204
Lib Dems 4
Ukip 0
Green 1
SNP 49
Plaid 3
NI 18
Tory majority of 92.0 -
ooh-er..Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Rolf Harris used to frequent my local Harvester.williamglenn said:Isn't Rolf Harris a constituent of Theresa May?
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Tim Farron is a worse leader than Jeremy Corbyn.
There I've said it.0 -
Half of the shift looks to be a correction to the mean, given that the last IPSOS was somewhat out of line with the trend of other polls. The remaining c. 4% is probably a manifesto bounce. Until today the Tories seem happy leaving Labour to fill up the airwaves and column inches.Rhubarb said:By the end of next week we should know if it's a proper change in direction or if it's just a manifesto bounce.
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UKIP 2017 are "From The Jam" ft Bruce Foxton and Rick BucklerSunil_Prasannan said:UKIP 2%
Labour 2017 are Fleetwood Mac reunited w Peter Green, Danny Kirwan and Jeremy Spencer instead of Buckingham, Nicks and Christine McVie
Lib Dems 2017 are Bronski Beat post Jimmy Somerville
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34%? WTF?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Sorry TSE.TheScreamingEagles said:
I've turned all Finbarr Saunders at you saying Rolf Harris frequented your harvester.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Rolf Harris used to frequent my local Harvester.williamglenn said:Isn't Rolf Harris a constituent of Theresa May?
It wasn't a euphemism.
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He wasn't a particularly good Student Union President and that doesn't usually have a high bar...TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Farron is a worse leader than Jeremy Corbyn.
There I've said it.0 -
Fenster said:
One of the most striking comments during the Brexit campaign was Steve Hilton saying 'it's harder for a South Korean astrophysicist to get into the UK, than it is a Romanian manual worker'...
And now Theresa May looks as though she's gonna make it even harder.
We need to get the net migration numbers down (for social reasons, not racial) whilst also attracting the very, very best.
I'm not sure May's migrant stance is striking the right notes.
The penny is dropping among sensible pro-business Tories that the Curtain Twitcher General cares not a cat's toss for the economy. She is more interested in meddling in people's lives.Fenster said:One of the most striking comments during the Brexit campaign was Steve Hilton saying 'it's harder for a South Korean astrophysicist to get into the UK, than it is a Romanian manual worker'...
And now Theresa May looks as though she's gonna make it even harder.
We need to get the net migration numbers down (for social reasons, not racial) whilst also attracting the very, very best.
I'm not sure May's migrant stance is striking the right notes.0 -
This poll really could be very bad for the Lds if it is reflected in SE London - Tories flying high and Labour improving leaves them between a rock and a hard place.dyedwoolie said:Initial thoughts on MORI - two party system in play, Labour are going to get absolutely humped in their seats where the Libs are moribund and the Tories second, but hold up very well in areas of Liberal relative strength and in Tory free areas. Also suggests they might be mopping up the well off bohemian vote - London and general southerners which will not gain them much.
On the manifesto it could well take the edge off the polls a little but it is at least an attempt at realism given the state of the finances. As a pensioner I have done very well over the past few years although have been hit by the sterling slump living in Spain. Overall however, I do think it's right that we share in austerity for the overall good.0 -
Take out Dave's deal and it makes more sense - ie if that had never been negotiated (and rejected by the British public) but it was and was, so they would have to say "remain in and get Dave's deal back" which is not, of course, in their power to promise.glw said:
It is starting to look like the Lib Dems have completely screwed up their campaign. Rather than make hay with Remainers and have some sort of leave friendly position they have managed to pick a position that even many Remain voters don't want, and end up talking about issues they would rather that nobody mentioned. If the Lib Dems do as badly as the polls imply I can't see how Farron would hang on.rottenborough said:
Farron gone by 9th?Slackbladder said:
Wow....a real two party only system is in place.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Certainly it gives scope for constituency polling - e.g. LDs gaining Cambridge is looking unlikely, as some of us have been saying for a while.Slackbladder said:
Initial thoughts on MORI - two party system in play, Labour are going to get absolutely humped in their seats where the Libs are moribund and the Tories second, but hold up very well in areas of Liberal relative strength and in Tory free areas. Also suggests they might be mopping up the well off bohemian vote - London and general southerners which will not gain them much.
For punters, it's an example of canvassing reports actually being useful. Like others, I've been reporting for some time that the Tories were eating UKIP but that the Labour vote was pretty solid while the LibDems were declining as the position polarised.
A question is whether the Tory position will remain as solid or even strengthen with their manifesto and as the campaign unfolds, or if we'll see some reversion to the mean. If the latter, we may end up with a 2017 result not all that different to 2015, in which case May will look a bit silly but still secure, and Corbyn will probably also be secure.0 -
No one wants to smell Tim's spaniel.TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Farron is a worse leader than Jeremy Corbyn.
There I've said it.0 -
Corbyn will be leader of Labour forever more.....Roger said:
One more push ........TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Not the most difficult thing the Leavers will have to conend with. That'll be the absense of £350 million a week for the health service now the cracks are showing. But compared to what's going to happen next year ......AlastairMeeks said:
Oh don't go there. Leavers get hysterical if you point out that more than eight out of ten Leavers who expressed a preference thought a Le Pen win would be best for Britain.The_Apocalypse said:
I was shocked to see how many people wanted Le Pen to win/thought she'd be good for UK in that YouGov poll.AlastairMeeks said:
The disaster of Brexit is unfolding. The country has already become more divided, more unhappy and more racist.freetochoose said:
Well that's a view, there is no evidence to support it but ho hum.AlastairMeeks said:
The country gets more insular, more hostile to foreigners, less attractive to outside investors as a result, drifts as globalisation gathers pace and becomes a low growth backwater dominated by incoherent populism. A decade or more of being absorbed by the implications of Brexit as a whole host of other more pressing problems go unconsidered won't exactly help much either.freetochoose said:
While I'm chuckling at you perhaps you can outline this "disaster"AlastairMeeks said:
Car crash Brexit will be good for the Conservatives, though disastrous for the country.isam said:
The lonely dumped husbands are still at the bar of the local telling anyone who'll listenfreetochoose said:
things for him at the moment?AlastairMeeks said:
Brexit has to be paid for somehow.TheScreamingEagles said:Crikey.
The Bow Group have called the Tory manifesto the biggest stealth tax increases in history.
"You wait til she cant afford go to the Algarve this year and doesn't get those nice shoes for Christmas.. then she'll love me again and wish she'd never left"
At least the Conservatives are proposing to make those who voted for this disaster pay, which is a start of sorts.
On the plus side, immigration won't be a problem for long because the brightest and best will want to go to countries that actually are pleasant to foreigners.
You see, you lost the argument last June and it is becoming increasingly tedious, if funny, a bit like the comedy shows on Dave.
If you think that people are going to stop talking about the disaster just because there was a vote on it last year, you're deranged. We are going to be living under the shadow of this mountain for many years to come.
C'mon Jeremy!0 -
Did the Lib Dem's actually release their manifesto in the end? Even I missed it, so God knows what the public thought, or rather didn't think about it.TheScreamingEagles said:Tim Farron is a worse leader than Jeremy Corbyn.
There I've said it.0 -
Bedwetters spooked by a 15pt Tory lead. FFS.rottenborough said:
Might send panic through the markets.TheScreamingEagles said:
An 8% increase in Labour's share of the vote is a corker.bobajobPB said:
Hardly the corker the increasingly hyperbolic Ben Page implied it was. Exactly what I would expect! Beware pollsters ramping their own polls...TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
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Actually MORI fits some of the background so far - Libs having a nightmare and the Tories soft pedalling. Floaters are moving to Labour because they are 'in the news' but are far from hard in their support as can be seen. If the Tories move to take the headlines for the run in the expectation would be a drift back from some Floaters. Seems to fit what's happening imo.0
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When are we going to talk about Jeremy Corbyn's 35% strategy ?0
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How gutted will Corbyn feel if he polls 34% and then remembers Cameron got a majority on 36/37%.
Edit and Blair did too on 35% in 2005.0 -
Incredible. As in OED definition of "impossible to believe"Casino_Royale said:
34%? WTF?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Others may disagree but I don't think that wanting lower immigration implies hostility to immigrants themselves. Nor is there much sign of popular support for zero net or no immigration, which is surely the mark of the true anti-immigration voter.midwinter said:As someone who actually deals with the WWC every day in his job I can assure you that the good folk of the West Sussex coast( particularly but not exclusively the elderly) whilst not hostile to foreign individuals are and were mighty disturbed by the amount of immigration in the area. That hasn't changed since June.
What people want is what we had through the 60s to 90s really, steady and lower levels of immigration, not rapid increases and high levels. The knock on effects you mention have been a real problem, particularly when immigration tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the country. Labelling people who are concerned about those effects on their schools, hospitals, and neighbourhoods as bigots is a cheap shot, and does nothing to address the real problems.
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The one thing I will say for Corbyn is that he is the only party leader who looks like he is enjoying the campaign. That probably counts for something. May clearly wants the whole thing over and done with – and looks absolutely knackered. Farron is just a plonker who has completely FUBAR over gay sex and abortion.dyedwoolie said:Actually MORI fits some of the background so far - Libs having a nightmare and the Tories soft pedalling. Floaters are moving to Labour because they are 'in the news' but are far from hard in their support as can be seen. If the Tories move to take the headlines for the run in the expectation would be a drift back from some Floaters. Seems to fit what's happening imo.
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Yep - I agree againbobajobPB said:tlg86 said:
Blimey.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)
That's a 15pt lead for the Tories who are scooping up nearly half the electorate. So what? That's a devastating defeat for Labour. What we would expect.
I think the lead may narrow a little but I have raised my majority expectation to around 75 from initially just a 50+. Much will depend on where these extra Labour votes are and whether the LDs can recover although the latter seems unlikely judging by their rampers on here who seem to lack any sense of the public mood. 0 -
Lower than Ipsos were giving Ed Miliband three weeks before the last election.Casino_Royale said:
34%? WTF?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Mirror has link to Conservative Manifesto Launch live feed:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-live-updates-104451120 -
The concerns are economic not xenophobic (No French!)glw said:
Others may disagree but I don't think that wanting lower immigration implies hostility to immigrants themselves. Nor is there much sign of popular support for zero net or no immigration, which is surely the mark of the true anti-immigration voter.midwinter said:As someone who actually deals with the WWC every day in his job I can assure you that the good folk of the West Sussex coast( particularly but not exclusively the elderly) whilst not hostile to foreign individuals are and were mighty disturbed by the amount of immigration in the area. That hasn't changed since June.
What people want is what we had through the 60s to 90s really, steady and lower levels of immigration, not rapid increases and high levels. The knock on effects you mention have been a real problem, particularly when immigration tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the country. Labelling people who are concerned about those effects on their schools, hospitals, and neighbourhoods as bigots is a cheap shot, and does nothing to address the real problems.0 -
Just like losing a football match 7-3, when your crosstown rivals won their game 2-0. It's relative, not absolute.TheScreamingEagles said:How gutted will Corbyn feel if he polls 34% and then remembers Cameron got a majority on 36/37%.
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Any value in Mr Fish Finger in Westmoreland yet ?0
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Paint-drying update available at The Daily Star.CarlottaVance said:Mirror has link to Conservative Manifesto Launch live feed:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2017-live-updates-104451120 -
It's not a huge surprise. Plenty of people with little or nothing to lose are going to be attracted by the goodies promised. And the manifesto has dominated the news for the last few days.Casino_Royale said:
34%? WTF?TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Nothing stands out (for example, the incredibly bouncy London sub sample has the Tories marginally ahead - which is probably unlikely) and SLAB on 20 in Scotland (Con: 28, SNP: 43, all of which seem 'reasonable'...)CarlottaVance said:0 -
LD vote share in the last poll with Ipsos
20% South
23% London
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If this was in the early 1970s you should probably contact Operation Yewtree.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Rolf Harris used to frequent my local Harvester.williamglenn said:Isn't Rolf Harris a constituent of Theresa May?
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Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll. 0
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Worth noting a 5.5 swing in best leader too. In April, May led by 61-23. She now leads by 56-29 - still a lot, but it's easily Corbyn's best score on that measure, and suggests that the "Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam.0
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Yeah. That's what I said.glw said:
Others may disagree but I don't think that wanting lower immigration implies hostility to immigrants themselves. Nor is there much sign of popular support for zero net or no immigration, which is surely the mark of the true anti-immigration voter.midwinter said:As someone who actually deals with the WWC every day in his job I can assure you that the good folk of the West Sussex coast( particularly but not exclusively the elderly) whilst not hostile to foreign individuals are and were mighty disturbed by the amount of immigration in the area. That hasn't changed since June.
What people want is what we had through the 60s to 90s really, steady and lower levels of immigration, not rapid increases and high levels. The knock on effects you mention have been a real problem, particularly when immigration tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the country. Labelling people who are concerned about those effects on their schools, hospitals, and neighbourhoods as bigots is a cheap shot, and does nothing to address the real problems.0 -
Corbyn is here to stay.TheScreamingEagles said:How gutted will Corbyn feel if he polls 34% and then remembers Cameron got a majority on 36/37%.
Edit and Blair did too on 35% in 2005.0 -
If he does lose it, he'll lose it to the Tories.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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You can get Farron next leader to go at 3.5 on BF. I'm tempted on these figures. Corbyn will cling on, as will Nutall imho.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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In all leadership ratings it seems that Labour voters' risk of cogitative dissonance has taken over. If they back Labour they are mentally forced to defend Corbyn.NickPalmer said:Worth noting a 5.5 swing in best leader too. In April, May led by 61-23. She now leads by 56-29 - still a lot, but it's easily Corbyn's best score on that measure, and suggests that the "Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam.
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What time will that likely come in? I might stay up for that if it is on the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he does lose it, he'll lose it to the Tories.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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So long as he loses, I don't care - I'm on the Tories (16-1) and Labour (25-1) there.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he does lose it, he'll lose it to the Tories.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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Ipsos Con+Lab = 83%
GE 2015 Con+Lab = 67.3 %
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A larger Tory majority means a softer Brexit.
"Although Mrs May has sometimes threatened to leave without any agreement, saying “no deal is better than a bad deal”, she has lately accepted the need for a transition arrangement after Brexit. With a larger majority she can more easily stand up to her ultra-Eurosceptic backbenchers, some of whom seem actively to want Britain to crash out. That explains why the pound rose this week. The election also buys Mrs May time. Holding a vote this year means that she need not face the polls again until 2022, three years after Britain’s formal exit from the EU. Avoiding the pressure of an imminent contest at home will further strengthen her against the headbanging fringe of her own party and the right-wing press, which screams treachery at any hint of the compromises needed to secure a deal with the EU.
http://discovery.economist.com/election?article=2828722&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=201704_Social_GB&utm_term=Subs-Link-Ad&utm_content=o_link-ad&cid1=d/soc/Facebook/dyn/2828722/20170504-00:00am/paid/social-LA/BR-PO/BRPII/n/subs/GB/BR-LIT&cid3=UM0 -
If it's a phone poll I can understand it's volatility. The only political poll I've done was for MORI by phone. After all their intros and disclaimers by the time they get to anything interesting you don't care what you say. You just go for the answer with the shortest number of letters. Like 'May'.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...0 -
Note that Spreadex currently has them on 158-164. This may be Peak Labour as it's just after the manifsto, but that market seems likely to move a bit, so som trading bets may be worthwhile for the intrepid.Slackbladder said:
I've always said that 200 seats is the 'cut off' for labour having a bad election and a disaster.tlg86 said:Baxtering that Ipsos Mori gives:
Conservatives 371
Labour 204
Lib Dems 4
Ukip 0
Green 1
SNP 49
Plaid 3
NI 18
Tory majority of 92.0 -
I've been saying for many months how the LibDem position was going to unravel.glw said:
It is starting to look like the Lib Dems have completely screwed up their campaign. Rather than make hay with Remainers and have some sort of leave friendly position they have managed to pick a position that even many Remain voters don't want, and end up talking about issues they would rather that nobody mentioned. If the Lib Dems do as badly as the polls imply I can't see how Farron would hang on.rottenborough said:
Farron gone by 9th?Slackbladder said:
Wow....a real two party only system is in place.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)
The timing of this election was the worst of all worlds for them - a leader who has not been welcomed by the voters, no policies other than Block Brexit - just ill-prepared for the fight. It may not have been Sir Lynton's primary aim on election timing, but I don't doubt he came to the same assessment.
And after four weeks of the Tories playing rope-a-dope, with UKIP and the LibDems out the ring, we can now have three weeks brutally focussing on Labour.0 -
I don't think we can accuse the pollsters of herding at the moment, which is a very good thing.0
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Between 2 and 4 am I reckon.glw said:
What time will that likely come in? I might stay up for that if it is on the cards.TheScreamingEagles said:
If he does lose it, he'll lose it to the Tories.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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Although he might not go if he's the only MP left...rottenborough said:
You can get Farron next leader to go at 3.5 on BF. I'm tempted on these figures. Corbyn will cling on, as will Nutall imho.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
There appears to be two likely outcomes from the GE.
1. TMay gets a stonking majority. Corbyn is humiliated and leaves. Labour slowly recovers under a different leader.
2. TMay gets a reasonable majority. Corbyn uses the excuse to stay (as not outright terrible). Labour is split and destroyed.
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How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
Even taking that into account, it does show how the post-Brexit impact has not been symmetrical, as was assumed before the election was called. Tories have hoovered up UKIP votes, but the Lib Dems appear to have lost votes, and presumably to Labour who hardly have a Remainer friendly offer. If anything I would have expected the Lib Dems to benefit the most.MarqueeMark said:I've been saying for many months how the LibDem position was going to unravel.
The timing of this election was the worst of all worlds for them - a leader who has not been welcomed by the voters, no policies other than Block Brexit - just ill-prepared for the fight. It may not have been Sir Lynton's primary aim on election timing, but I don't doubt he came to the same assessment.
And after four weeks of the Tories playing rope-a-dope, with UKIP and the LibDems out the ring, we can now have three weeks brutally focussing on Labour.
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I wouldn't think they're too worried. Labour are heading for sub 180 seats even with only a 13 point defeat, and let's be honest, with the soft Lab vote abd when the press go into overdrive and with the Tory manifesto in the news we're going to be looking at a minimum of a 15 point lead come polling day.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
Conservative manifesto:
"Rigid dogma and ideology needless and damaging
... change shaped through clear principles."
I have clear principles you have rigid dogma and ideology.0 -
here to post this.Carolus_Rex said:
How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
Not entirely true. A lot of pensioners I deal with come from Croydon, Streatham and places like that. They think rightly or wrongly that demographic change has forced them out. They then see hordes of Eastern Europeans migrate in the last 15 years to the areas they now live in (and there are a lot in places like Bognor) and they are understandably worried it will happen again. I don't think their concerns are economic. They also have the perception that a lot more more money is spent on education and infrastructure in London and associate that with multiculturalism. They are generally right. They aren't getting a fair deal and they are being sneered at by metropolitan types.isam said:
The concerns are economic not xenophobic (No French!)glw said:
Others may disagree but I don't think that wanting lower immigration implies hostility to immigrants themselves. Nor is there much sign of popular support for zero net or no immigration, which is surely the mark of the true anti-immigration voter.midwinter said:As someone who actually deals with the WWC every day in his job I can assure you that the good folk of the West Sussex coast( particularly but not exclusively the elderly) whilst not hostile to foreign individuals are and were mighty disturbed by the amount of immigration in the area. That hasn't changed since June.
What people want is what we had through the 60s to 90s really, steady and lower levels of immigration, not rapid increases and high levels. The knock on effects you mention have been a real problem, particularly when immigration tends to be concentrated in a relatively small part of the country. Labelling people who are concerned about those effects on their schools, hospitals, and neighbourhoods as bigots is a cheap shot, and does nothing to address the real problems.
Does that make them xenophobes? I dunno...0 -
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Not really. The thing to watch is the Labour score compared with the Corbyn score - the difference is people who are voting Labour but holding their noses, and thus potentially seduceable by Tory demonisation of Corbyn. The Tory lead is all about eating UKIP (are they really down to 2%?), and there's not a lot Labour under any leader can do about that.RobinWiggs said:@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...
What critics of Corbyn can argue is that under hypothetical wonder-leader from the centre, we would be gaining votes from the left of the Tories while they snuggle up to UKIP. Whether that's true to a large extent is debatable, cf. the poll two days ago showing Labour doing much worse if Tony Blair was leading. I think we're seeing some genuine polarisation here.0 -
From Cameron's perspective his majority didn't do him much good.BannedInParis said:
here to post this.Carolus_Rex said:
How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
That well known strategic blunder where you are at 49% in the polls.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
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It was a disaster for Dave..sadly.Carolus_Rex said:
How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
Just taken a nibble on Farron first leader to go.Lennon said:
Although he might not go if he's the only MP left...rottenborough said:
You can get Farron next leader to go at 3.5 on BF. I'm tempted on these figures. Corbyn will cling on, as will Nutall imho.tlg86 said:Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.
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Yes I think this was a standard motivating factor for holding the election (apart of course from the fact that an increased majority is a good thing whatever the circs).logical_song said:A larger Tory majority means a softer Brexit.
"Although Mrs May has sometimes threatened to leave without any agreement, saying “no deal is better than a bad deal”, she has lately accepted the need for a transition arrangement after Brexit. With a larger majority she can more easily stand up to her ultra-Eurosceptic backbenchers, some of whom seem actively to want Britain to crash out. That explains why the pound rose this week. The election also buys Mrs May time. Holding a vote this year means that she need not face the polls again until 2022, three years after Britain’s formal exit from the EU. Avoiding the pressure of an imminent contest at home will further strengthen her against the headbanging fringe of her own party and the right-wing press, which screams treachery at any hint of the compromises needed to secure a deal with the EU.
http://discovery.economist.com/election?article=2828722&utm_source=Social&utm_medium=Facebook&utm_campaign=201704_Social_GB&utm_term=Subs-Link-Ad&utm_content=o_link-ad&cid1=d/soc/Facebook/dyn/2828722/20170504-00:00am/paid/social-LA/BR-PO/BRPII/n/subs/GB/BR-LIT&cid3=UM
But if there is a transition period (five years? 10 years?) that still leaves us at the next GE not having left and with the possibility for the next Govt to say we're not leaving.0 -
@PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick0
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NickPalmer said:
Not really. The thing to watch is the Labour score compared with the Corbyn score - the difference is people who are voting Labour but holding their noses, and thus potentially seduceable by Tory demonisation of Corbyn. The Tory lead is all about eating UKIP (are they really down to 2%?), and there's not a lot Labour under any leader can do about that.RobinWiggs said:@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...
What critics of Corbyn can argue is that under hypothetical wonder-leader from the centre, we would be gaining votes from the left of the Tories while they snuggle up to UKIP. Whether that's true to a large extent is debatable, cf. the poll two days ago showing Labour doing much worse if Tony Blair was leading. I think we're seeing some genuine polarisation here.
cf. the poll two days ago showing Labour doing much worse if Tony Blair was leading
That's more to do with people's opinion of Blair than a policy position.
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This poll suggests over one third of pensioners less likely to vote Tory if triple lock is at risk.HurstLlama said:
I haven't seen the detail yet but I agree with you in principle.Big_G_NorthWales said:
As a pensioner I always expected to have to pay for care if needed right down to £23,250. So to increase that to £100,000 seems a fair deal to me and no doubt my childrenMorris_Dancer said:If May's miscalculated then where do pensioner votes go?
Many people on this site continue to misunderstand the motivations of those richer in years. My experience is that most pensioners are more concerned with the future of the children and grandchildren far more than they are for themselves. Therefore comments like that from Mr. Dancer above are based on a false reading of why pensioners vote the way they do. I doubt the Conservatives will lose more than a trivial number of votes by abolishing the triple lock, winter fuel payments or any other universal pensioner freebies. That said I would place the caveat that other policies must address the future of said offspring and must also take care of those, genuinely, hard-up pensioners).
What might upset quite a few people in rural areas is the withdrawal of the bus pass. That is the only thing that keeps many rural bus services going. It is as much a subsidy to the bus company as it is to the pensioners. It also acts a social service as it makes it easier for the elderly to get about, visit the local town and adjacent villages, with knock on effects to businesses in those places.
https://www.oldmutualwealth.co.uk/Media-Centre/2017-press-releases/April-2017/poll-reveals-triple-lock-debate-could-cost-tory-party-key-votes/
I haven't seen any other evidence on this question. My suspicion is Corbyn is so toxic to the older generation it won't matter much this time - but could well matter under a different Labour leader in future.0 -
Lest we forget St Theresa's past....
http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/02628/tory-van-620_2628143a.jpg0 -
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Hahahahahahaha.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Good point. The social care thing is a total mess.Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick
Edit: there is no pooled risk. If you are lucky you are quids in.0 -
Right, where can I read and download the manifesto rather than listening to this guff then?0
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There's a lot any Labour could do about that! Considering a very large proportion of UKIP voters are ex-Labour voters, a Labour leader could be appealing to them himself rather than pushing them to the Tories.NickPalmer said:
Not really. The thing to watch is the Labour score compared with the Corbyn score - the difference is people who are voting Labour but holding their noses, and thus potentially seduceable by Tory demonisation of Corbyn. The Tory lead is all about eating UKIP (are they really down to 2%?), and there's not a lot Labour under any leader can do about that.RobinWiggs said:@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...0 -
Where in the world is social care free of charge?Scott_P said:@PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick
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I never assumed it was going to be symmetrical. I said that the dog that would not bark was Tory Remainers going to the LibDems. Not going to happen. If Ken Clark and Anna Soubry stayed with the Tories, then who was going to desert them over Brexit? As it is, I am seeing here in the SW that 2015 LibDems who then voted Leave are deserting the LibDems. Their policy of "let's keep voting until we get the result we like" is toxic.glw said:
Even taking that into account, it does show how the post-Brexit impact has not been symmetrical, as was assumed before the election was called. Tories have hoovered up UKIP votes, but the Lib Dems appear to have lost votes, and presumably to Labour who hardly have a Remainer friendly offer. If anything I would have expected the Lib Dems to benefit the most.MarqueeMark said:I've been saying for many months how the LibDem position was going to unravel.
The timing of this election was the worst of all worlds for them - a leader who has not been welcomed by the voters, no policies other than Block Brexit - just ill-prepared for the fight. It may not have been Sir Lynton's primary aim on election timing, but I don't doubt he came to the same assessment.
And after four weeks of the Tories playing rope-a-dope, with UKIP and the LibDems out the ring, we can now have three weeks brutally focussing on Labour.
UKIP on the other hand is dead. Farage gone, it's purpose delivered, a new joke leader installed - they were always going to go backwards. And where are their 97% Brexit voters going - to Jeremy "open borders" Corbyn? Leave it out....0 -
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Underdog to run the country? Perhaps.williamglenn said:Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?
If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.0 -
@Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections0
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Cross over now confirmed for 1st week in June.TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos MORI
Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)0 -
Gary Glitter was a regular in my local yacht club.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Rolf Harris used to frequent my local Harvester.williamglenn said:Isn't Rolf Harris a constituent of Theresa May?
I was there when the poliz turned up to raid his boat.0 -
Looking at this latest Mori makes BF '35.01 - 40.0 Percent' for Labour vote share look a bargain at 10.5....0
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The good news for Labour is that (according to Yougov) 39% would consider voting for Labour. The bad news is that 61% won't, and the Conservatives are getting the large majority of the 61%.IanB2 said:
And we shouldn't project the antipathy the majority have for Corbyn onto the minority for whom he is a big positive....?rottenborough said:
I guess I am not being very scientific, in not believing polls. But personally I cannot see Labour getting above 25. No way on God's green earth.kle4 said:
It's hard to believe, but where do you think both parties really are in that case?rottenborough said:Maybe I am becoming like King Canute* or something, but I just refuse to believe these Labour numbers. Just refuse. Corbyn is pure poison as far as i can see to vast swathes of the electorate and particularly C and D class voters.
Where are these 32%? Not in marginal seats.
The only explanation that makes any sense is he is piling them up in Bootle.
* Canute as popularly imagined. Yes I know what really happened - no need to trouble PB with that again.
One explanation is possibly that voters are disregarding Corbyn as they know he will not be PM and so are starting to be persuaded by their local Lab MP saying - "I'm a decent guy, I've done good things, don't blame me for Corbyn' etc etc.
The other (and the one I am inclined to go for) is that the polls are (obviously) just telling us what people might do. When faced with an actual ballot box and the prospect of Corbyn then they will desert on masse. A bit like '92.
Mind you I was completely wrong on Trump and Le Pen so DYOR :-)
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YG are struggling to speak to Middle Aged Mr C2DE - white van man.CarlottaVance said:
Nothing stands out (for example, the incredibly bouncy London sub sample has the Tories marginally ahead - which is probably unlikely) and SLAB on 20 in Scotland (Con: 28, SNP: 43, all of which seem 'reasonable'...)CarlottaVance said:
The younger female quota is vastly oversubscribed.0
