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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday has CON l

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  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JohnRentoul: "We need to look forward not back." She did not say that!? Labour's 2005 slogan.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick

    Where in the world is social care free of charge?
    Scotland for >65s
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,027
    Just had two pieces of correspondence, one a letter from Mrs May, the other a leaflet from the Labour candidate (already had a couple from the Conservative).
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    eekeek Posts: 25,074

    Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?

    If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.

    How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.
    And the absolutely majority meant that something that was just a coalition negotiation item (Brexit vote) wasn't removed by the coalition negotiations and had to be implemented...
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Tim Farron is a worse leader than Jeremy Corbyn.

    There I've said it.

    Did the Lib Dem's actually release their manifesto in the end? Even I missed it, so God knows what the public thought, or rather didn't think about it.
    No, their manifesto isn't out yet.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite
  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    Scott_P said:
    Crikey Maggie May! How has that not been used before?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,235
    edited May 2017
    TOPPING said:

    Yes I think this was a standard motivating factor for holding the election (apart of course from the fact that an increased majority is a good thing whatever the circs).

    But if there is a transition period (five years? 10 years?) that still leaves us at the next GE not having left and with the possibility for the next Govt to say we're not leaving.

    One of May's big problems could be that the EU will not want to play ball with an 'extend and pretend' Brexit approach as they clearly have the upper hand and why would they want to waste it?

    Unless there is an extension of the A50 period or otherwise some kind of transition which really does mean we stay in the EU then there will be immediate legal consequences in March 2019 which could mean that all Euro central counterparty clearing will need to leave London.
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,074
    calum said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick

    Where in the world is social care free of charge?
    Scotland for >65s
    So subsidised by the rest of the UK thanks to the Bartlett formula which is 30 years out of date...
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    I hope so. Photo ID. Get you bin-liner off.
    The SJWs won't like this.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    eek said:

    calum said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick

    Where in the world is social care free of charge?
    Scotland for >65s
    So subsidised by the rest of the UK thanks to the Bartlett formula which is 30 years out of date...
    Thankyou rUK !
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick

    what's changed to now?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    TOPPING said:

    Yes I think this was a standard motivating factor for holding the election (apart of course from the fact that an increased majority is a good thing whatever the circs).

    But if there is a transition period (five years? 10 years?) that still leaves us at the next GE not having left and with the possibility for the next Govt to say we're not leaving.

    One of May's big problems could be that the EU will not want to play ball with an 'extend and pretend' Brexit approach as they clearly have the upper hand and why would they want to waste it?

    Unless there is an extension of the A50 period or otherwise some kind of transition which really does mean we stay in the EU then there will be immediate legal consequences in March 2019 which could mean that all Euro central counterparty clearing will need to leave London.
    In what way do they "have the upper hand"?

    We're leaving. That gives us the advantage.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Dura_Ace said:

    Ipsos MORI

    Con 49 (nc) Lab 34 (+8) LD 7 (-7) Greens 3 (+2) UKIP 2 (-2)

    Cross over now confirmed for 1st week in June.
    For that to happen currently the lib dems, greens and UKIP would have to have negative votes....
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Mortimer said:

    Looking at this latest Mori makes BF '35.01 - 40.0 Percent' for Labour vote share look a bargain at 10.5....

    Mori had Miliband winning at this stage in 2015, they called the referendum for remain by 4 and overstated the SNP-Con gap by 8.5% at Holyrood in 2016.

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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    calum said:

    eek said:

    calum said:

    eek said:

    Scott_P said:

    @PaulBrandITV: Have to question efficacy of having an inheritance tax threshold of £1m and a social care threshold of £100k. Pass it on, unless you're sick

    Where in the world is social care free of charge?
    Scotland for >65s
    So subsidised by the rest of the UK thanks to the Bartlett formula which is 30 years out of date...
    Thankyou rUK !
    Yeah, but we want it all back when you go.
    With interest.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187
    midwinter said:

    Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?

    If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.

    How was it a blunder last time? Going hard on the Lib Dems was what got Cameron his absolute majority.
    It was a disaster for Dave..sadly.
    Dave's disasters were after the Coalition was gone and he was a Conservative Prime Minister....
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,554
    What about the foxes? Where are they headed?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,554
    Mental health parity. How many times has this been promised in last decade? I am losing track. Never actually happens.
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713

    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?

    Presumably to register for self-employment, you also have to register for auto-enrollment, and a mandated payment into a pension scheme.

    Sounds sensible really.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,686
    Hurrah. We're remaining part of the ECHR.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What about the foxes? Where are they headed?

    https://twitter.com/martinbelam/status/865159646385930241
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,235

    Hurrah. We're remaining part of the ECHR.

    So that's one part of the Good Friday Agreement May isn't prepared to tear up.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    TOPPING said:

    Is this the second election in a row where the Tories have made a strategic blunder by going too hard on the Lib Dems?

    If they'd insulated Farron from the 'coalition of chaos' meme and treated them as a minor 'serious' party (and ex-coalition partner) then they would have been much better placed to punish Labour. As it is it's looking like a two-horse race in which people are drawn to the underdog.

    Underdog to run the country? Perhaps.
    It doesn't look like it. The Conservatives are on course to win their biggest vote share since the 1950's.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,505
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,013
    These numbers are absolutely awful for the Lib Dems, and I wonder now if the party has a future.
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Not really the Conservative party any more, is it.
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections


    So how does that work with postal voting?

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    eekeek Posts: 25,074
    edited May 2017
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    Another poster attaching their views to every other poster here. I know that immigration is a problem - I've posted my council estate Aldi anecdote here a few times... It wasn't however the main reason I voted leave...

  • Options
    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,739
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    That's how they managed to get to 52% everyone was voting for different and sometimes contradictory things.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    How will that work re postal vote?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,554
    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Not really the Conservative party any more, is it.
    Davis wont let that pass.
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    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,686
    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Not really the Conservative party any more, is it.
    How does it work for those of us who use postal votes?

    Does Mrs May realise most postal votes are used by Tories.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    "It is time to put the old tribal politics behind us and to unite behind the Tories getting the best deal for Britain."
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060

    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?

    Presumably to register for self-employment, you also have to register for auto-enrollment, and a mandated payment into a pension scheme.

    Sounds sensible really.
    financially what is the difference to them doing a personal pension now? is it a state sponsored pension 'default'... don't get it.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,217

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    So how does that work with postal voting?

    With a bit of luck they'll ban it apart for exceptional circumstances and introduce early voting.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Hurrah. We're remaining part of the ECHR.

    SJWs will like that.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,505

    TOPPING said:

    Yes I think this was a standard motivating factor for holding the election (apart of course from the fact that an increased majority is a good thing whatever the circs).

    But if there is a transition period (five years? 10 years?) that still leaves us at the next GE not having left and with the possibility for the next Govt to say we're not leaving.

    One of May's big problems could be that the EU will not want to play ball with an 'extend and pretend' Brexit approach as they clearly have the upper hand and why would they want to waste it?

    Unless there is an extension of the A50 period or otherwise some kind of transition which really does mean we stay in the EU then there will be immediate legal consequences in March 2019 which could mean that all Euro central counterparty clearing will need to leave London.
    Well presumably for every year the can is kicked down the road that is an extra $$ contribution by the UK.

    Hence, just like a second referendum, a transition period I find very difficult to believe will happen for reasons of logic.

    A transition period is not leaving. It is not being able to make trade deals with Tonga or wherever it is we're supposed to be able to be free to trade with. It is prolonging our membership.

    I can't see it happening.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,771
    So when May said the other day that she would serve 'a full 5 year term' did she have her fingers crossed behind her back?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    What happened to the Brexit dividend? Where is our £350m?

    https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/865160516901027840
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    eekeek Posts: 25,074

    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?

    Presumably to register for self-employment, you also have to register for auto-enrollment, and a mandated payment into a pension scheme.

    Sounds sensible really.
    financially what is the difference to them doing a personal pension now? is it a state sponsored pension 'default'... don't get it.
    I think its more a check (hopefully regularly rather than on startup) that something is being put / saved into a pension...
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,075
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Dadge said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Not really the Conservative party any more, is it.
    How does it work for those of us who use postal votes?

    Yep. I'm a postal voter as well.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Hurrah. We're remaining part of the ECHR.

    Hmmm

    Wonderful. Now I need to see if I've got a UKIP candidate.
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    How much in person voting fraud is there? As opposed to postal vote fraud?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    What happened to the Brexit dividend? Where is our £350m?

    Have we left yet?

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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    So no one was voting about immigration in your first paragraph,but plenty of people were in your second.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    eek said:

    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?

    Presumably to register for self-employment, you also have to register for auto-enrollment, and a mandated payment into a pension scheme.

    Sounds sensible really.
    financially what is the difference to them doing a personal pension now? is it a state sponsored pension 'default'... don't get it.
    I think its more a check (hopefully regularly rather than on startup) that something is being put / saved into a pension...
    and if they aren't? Employers have to re enrol those who opt out every 3 years and employees can then opt out again if they wish - inertia being the hope they'll give in - I don't see how any of this works for the s/e where they are employer and employee.

    Will be v interested to see what this actually means!
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    edited May 2017
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    GeoffM said:

    Have we left yet?

    Read the quote. "next 5 years"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187
    Dick Dastardly. This is the Nasty Party after all....
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,505
    edited May 2017

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    That's how they managed to get to 52% everyone was voting for different and sometimes contradictory things.
    Exactly. And what is sauce for the goose...

    Leavers cannot constantly tell us there was no Leave manifesto (of course there was, but...), it's up to the government to decide, and then in the next breath tell us why the country voted to leave (immigration, ECJ, etc) and the government must do as it has been told.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    eek said:

    Tory manifesto has auto enrolment being extended to the self employed....

    how does that work?

    Presumably to register for self-employment, you also have to register for auto-enrollment, and a mandated payment into a pension scheme.

    Sounds sensible really.
    financially what is the difference to them doing a personal pension now? is it a state sponsored pension 'default'... don't get it.
    I think its more a check (hopefully regularly rather than on startup) that something is being put / saved into a pension...
    and if they aren't? Employers have to re enrol those who opt out every 3 years and employees can then opt out again if they wish - inertia being the hope they'll give in - I don't see how any of this works for the s/e where they are employer and employee.

    Will be v interested to see what this actually means!
    Its a case of saying that if you don't want to save for a pension you'll have to declare that you don't, rather than having to declare that you do if you do. It makes opting-out of saving for your pension a proactive choice with all the consequences that come with that.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,048
    Scott_P said:
    A mandate for a good deal. Whether that's achievable is quite another matter.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JamieRoss7: Meanwhile, at #FMQs, Kezia Dugdale and Sturgeon are laying in to @WingsScotland. "I'm not responsible for Stuart Campbell," says the FM.

    @BBCPhilipSim: Kezia Dugdale criticising blogger @WingsScotland in Holyrood chamber; asks FM to condemn his "bile" and anyone poisoning political debate
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2017
    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

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    isamisam Posts: 41,037
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    The leavers on here who gave a stuff about immigration are almost all banned.

    I am not using that narrative because it's why "I" voted. My job is unaffected by EU immigration. If you think Leave didn't win because of immigration that's down to you, but I think you are wrong.
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,925
    calum said:
    An effective poster...... it works for me.

    Nice link to Maggie and it does show where Theresa is coming from.

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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,505
    Ishmael_Z said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    So no one was voting about immigration in your first paragraph,but plenty of people were in your second.
    I would say the majority of Leavers on here ( @rcs1000, @Richard_Tyndall etc) didn't vote that way because of immigration.

    I haven't done a poll, that said and I imagine there would be plenty of shy immigration-hating leavers on PB if a poll was done.
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,191
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Hmmm. What problem are they trying to solve with this change?

    As ever, details, details ...
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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 914
    Sean_F said:

    These numbers are absolutely awful for the Lib Dems, and I wonder now if the party has a future.

    Takes more than a few bad results to dampen the enthusiasm of real Liberals. We had 50% more MPs at the dissolution than when I joined!!
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,835
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,492
    Really not sure what to make of the IPSOS Mori. I can believe the Lib Dem figure, they are spiralling the plug hole of total irrelevance in this election. It is hard to believe that the Tories are any higher than 49% (surely). UKIP look very low, have they started to adapt to the number of constituencies that a UKIP vote is relevant? Labour look really high but I suppose the votes have to go somewhere. There is about 5% left which makes some provision for the SNP and any odds and sods, probably a bit low.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCPhilipSim: Kezia Dugdale says @WingsScotland "distorts" debate, sayin 44% of SNP MSPs & 50% of SNP MPs "encourage" him. Wants them to "denounce & shun"

    @AidanKerrTweets: Terrific ding dong at #FMQs.

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    IcarusIcarus Posts: 914
    1 reply . 0 retweets 0 likes
    Reply 1 Retweet
    Like
    Tim Wallace‏Verified account @Tim_Wallace 47s48 seconds ago
    More
    "These are good principles which have underpinned Conservatism." We must have been watching different Conservatisms for the past 40 years.

    Telegraph correspondent, Tim Wallace horrified by May's manifesto
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,027
    Ms. Apocalypse, I quite like most of what I've heard from the Pirates, but cutting copyright to 10 years is not good for writers.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @PolhomeEditor: On whether she's a Thatcherite, May says: "Margaret Thatcher was a Conservative, I'm a Conservative, this is a Conservative manifesto."

    @BBCJLandale: Says something when a Tory prime minister at her manifesto launch has to assure journalists: "I'm a Conservative...".
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Roger said:

    calum said:
    An effective poster...... it works for me.

    Nice link to Maggie and it does show where Theresa is coming from.

    Except Maggie won Stirling
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: On whether she's a Thatcherite, May says: "Margaret Thatcher was a Conservative, I'm a Conservative, this is a Conservative manifesto."

    @BBCJLandale: Says something when a Tory prime minister at her manifesto launch has to assure journalists: "I'm a Conservative...".

    LOL.

    So is May going to be the second Tory leader in a row PB Tories aren't keen on?
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,235
    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Kezia Dugdale says @WingsScotland "distorts" debate, sayin 44% of SNP MSPs & 50% of SNP MPs "encourage" him. Wants them to "denounce & shun"

    @AidanKerrTweets: Terrific ding dong at #FMQs.

    This is entering dangerous Brian Spanner shaped territory.
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,505
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    The leavers on here who gave a stuff about immigration are almost all banned.

    I am not using that narrative because it's why "I" voted. My job is unaffected by EU immigration. If you think Leave didn't win because of immigration that's down to you, but I think you are wrong.
    I think plenty of Leavers voted that way because of immigration; my point was so what? It doesn't mean the government has to do anything about immigration because as every Leaver can't stop telling us, there was no Leave manifesto, the Leave campaign had no influence on government policy, and it is up to the current government to just leave the EU howsoever they want to do it (or not, if there is a transition period).
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,211
    Solid manifesto from May some tough choices on using assets to pay for social care (though under £100k exempt) and ending universal free school meals and winter fuel payments but more money for the NHS and social care and increase in threshold for starting rate of basic and top rate tax
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,686
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Kezia Dugdale says @WingsScotland "distorts" debate, sayin 44% of SNP MSPs & 50% of SNP MPs "encourage" him. Wants them to "denounce & shun"

    @AidanKerrTweets: Terrific ding dong at #FMQs.

    This is entering dangerous Brian Spanner shaped territory.
    They should just only follow Angry Salmond.

    He's got the tone right and isn't shy of calling out the idiots on his side.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,187

    Scott_P said:

    @PolhomeEditor: On whether she's a Thatcherite, May says: "Margaret Thatcher was a Conservative, I'm a Conservative, this is a Conservative manifesto."

    @BBCJLandale: Says something when a Tory prime minister at her manifesto launch has to assure journalists: "I'm a Conservative...".

    LOL.

    So is May going to be the second Tory leader in a row PB Tories aren't keen on?
    No. If she gets a three figure majority, squashes UKIP and the LibDems like bugs and keeps PMQs with Jeremy Corbyn, the Party are going to love her. Even PB Tories.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,074
    HYUFD said:

    Solid manifesto from May some tough choices on using assets to pay for social care (though under £100k exempt) and ending universal free school meals and winter fuel payments but more money for the NHS and social care and increase in threshold for starting rate of basic and top rate tax

    Free Breakfast in school will more than make up for the loss of universal free school meals. Every study I've seen shows it does more good than virtually anything else..
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Solid manifesto from May some tough choices on using assets to pay for social care (though under £100k exempt) and ending universal free school meals and winter fuel payments but more money for the NHS and social care and increase in threshold for starting rate of basic and top rate tax

    It will be interesting to see where they go with Carers Allowance on social security. If they raise that quite substantially, their care policy will start to look very joined up and aimed at making it affordable for families to do the work that is often outsourced to private care providers, local authorities etc.
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited May 2017
    Anecdata:

    At lunch just now colleague says two of his mates down the pub (I know I know) are considering voting Labour "because of free tuition fees" - they have teenage children.

    Couple of other people remarked how Corbyn "is not as bad on TV as he was when he first got the job - sounds OK"

    Tories need to spend 3 weeks 24/7 demolishing (1) Labour's spending plans and (2) Jeremy Corbyn as a terrorist sympathising near communist

    Tories should be concerned by the poll trend and up their game.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,074

    Ms. Apocalypse, I quite like most of what I've heard from the Pirates, but cutting copyright to 10 years is not good for writers.

    It's a rare book that is still earning decent royalties after 10 years...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,554
    This social care change. It needs more explanation and urgently.

    As I read what it says in the manifesto - if person A becomes ill and needs long term social care either in their own home or a residential home, it will be free at the time. When they die it will be taken out of their assets, in most cases this will be the family home. So where does that leave another person, B, who lives with them either as a spouse, civil partner or indeed just partner?

    They normally would probably be expecting to inherit the house and continue living in it.

    On face of it the home will sold and the charges made.

    Have I missed something here?
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    RogerRoger Posts: 18,925
    edited May 2017
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    What does it matter WHY a small majority voted 'Leave'? It's bad enough that parliament absolved itself of it's responsibility by calling a referendum without having to capitulate to the mobs every prejudice.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,048

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
    Tacking socially right wing, economically left.
    No contradiction there, but distinctly unpalatable for some of us.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,802

    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    No. She also says the Uk will quit the customs union. This matches what she said last year and earlier this year.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Anecdata:

    At lunch just now colleague says two of his mates down the pub (I know I know) are considering voting Labour "because of free tuition fees" - they have teenage children.

    Couple of other people remarked how Corbyn "is not as bad on TV as he was when he first got the job - sounds OK"

    Tories need to spend 3 weeks 24/7 demolishing (1) Labour's spending plans and (2) Jeremy Corbyn as a terrorist sympathising near communist

    Tories should be concerned by the poll trend and up their game.

    Corbyn is getting hammered in the polls! That all said, he is the only party leader who is enjoying the campaign. He's not doing too badly and indeed looks better on telly in this situation than he does in normal service. Don't worry though, the Tories are going to win big.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,492

    This social care change. It needs more explanation and urgently.

    As I read what it says in the manifesto - if person A becomes ill and needs long term social care either in their own home or a residential home, it will be free at the time. When they die it will be taken out of their assets, in most cases this will be the family home. So where does that leave another person, B, who lives with them either as a spouse, civil partner or indeed just partner?

    They normally would probably be expecting to inherit the house and continue living in it.

    On face of it the home will sold and the charges made.

    Have I missed something here?

    Well what happens at the moment is that if there is a couple security is taken over the house and realised when the second one dies, not the first. I can see complications where there are other occupants such as children, grandchildren etc but I do think that the object of our Social Care bill cannot be to boost inheritance.
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    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    Charlie Elphicke (Dover Deal) has been doing a lot of work on the customs processing agreements and arrangements to be in place following Brexit. Obviously Dover will be greatly affected.

    Mu understanding is that he has worked a lot with the Freight Hauliers and Calais and the French to ensure a scheme is in place and this is will need to reduplicated at other ports around the country.

    I am going to his hustings tonight and I will be asking him this very question.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,027
    Mr. eek, suppose someone, who is a wonderful F1 tipster, had rotten book sales despite consistently good reviews. Now imagine after years of trying he finally gets a big hit. Not a monster, let's say 12,000 sales. But those reader want to try his other books. Are you really saying they should be able to be made free, and hence deprive him of any income from them?

    There are numerous downsides to writing. It's very hard to make sales, it's hard to get any kind of profile, the market is saturated, getting an agent is hard, getting a publisher is hard. One of the few upsides is that if you have a hit later the books that were duds when released *might* see some extra secondary sales.

    Incidentally, do give episode one of my new serial a look. It's fast, fun, and free:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Phoenix-Rising-Wandering-Roaming-Tiger-ebook/dp/B071LCLJYY/

    Mr. C, I agree, and I said before that the Conservatives were being too soft on Corbyn.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    "the government is a force for good" she said.
This discussion has been closed.