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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
    Take away BREXIT and SINDY aspect of politics, enforced by the electorate, and there really isn't too much between Con/LibDem/SNP/PC. It's managed social democracy with differences at the policy margins.

    Take out Jezza's bonkers economic drivel and even Labour fit the bill too.

    OTOH Grand Duke Nuttall et al
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Hurrah. We're remaining part of the ECHR.

    SJWs will like that.
    nah they will still claim it as some sort of Tory plot....
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    No. She also says the Uk will quit the customs union. This matches what she said last year and earlier this year.
    Indeed it makes sense to reach a customs agreement once out of the customs union.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938
    On voting:

    The British public deserves to have con dence in our democracy. We will legislate to ensure that a form of identi cation must be presented before voting, to reform postal voting and to improve other aspects of the elections process to ensure that our elections are the most secure in the world. We will retain the traditional method of voting by pencil and paper, and tackle every aspect of electoral fraud.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    Worse, she's Ed Miliband/Gordon Brown in a skirt and high heels.

    I did warn PBers at the start, they now mostly agree, they'll soon be agreeing with me that the country needs George Osborne as PM in the very near future.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Good ole American style suppresion of the vote there.....
  • Options
    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,607
    Struggling to get a real overall picture of the package. Anyone found a good one?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,346
    edited May 2017
    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    What happened to the Brexit dividend? Where is our £350m?

    Scott , Gina Miller , GO and Tim Farron - the last taxi full of bedwetters who still aren't over Brexit.

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    On voting:

    The British public deserves to have con dence in our democracy. We will legislate to ensure that a form of identi cation must be presented before voting, to reform postal voting and to improve other aspects of the elections process to ensure that our elections are the most secure in the world. We will retain the traditional method of voting by pencil and paper, and tackle every aspect of electoral fraud.

    retain *pencil* and paer. SO MI5 can still do their thing....typical Tories....
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869

    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    No. She also says the Uk will quit the customs union. This matches what she said last year and earlier this year.
    Indeed it makes sense to reach a customs agreement once out of the customs union.
    I think we will be leaving The EU customs unions, but we will have A customs unions with The EU post Brexit in the ideal world.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

    Indeed. I may have to resort to voting Green – even though I think they are mainly bonkers and don't agree with 70% of their policies. I'd vote Women's Equality Party – just because I like Sophie Walker – were they standing in my seat, but they aren't.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,607
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    That presumably puts the Lib Dems about 7%?
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Nigelb said:

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
    Tacking socially right wing, economically left.
    No contradiction there, but distinctly unpalatable for some of us.
    Where is the "socially right wing" part of the Conservative party?

    Peter Bone ?!? .... :smiley:
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,741
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    What happened to the Brexit dividend? Where is our £350m?

    Scott , Gina Miller , GO and Tim Farron - the last taxi full of bedwetters who still aren't over Brexit.

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.
    Answer the question!
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    Worse, she's Ed Miliband/Gordon Brown in a skirt and high heels.

    I did warn PBers at the start, they now mostly agree, they'll soon be agreeing with me that the country needs George Osborne as PM in the very near future.
    TSE is your genuine plan here to only troll in the comments and leave any insightful analysis for thread headers?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    this is why you need to follow a broad range of commentators to get a balanced view...

    @BBCPhilipSim: Anas Sarwar notes Israeli ambassador visiting Holyrood; he wants FM to raise issues from Gaza and justice for Palestine. #FMQs

    @JournoStephen: .@AnasSarwar goes full Jeremy Corbyn on Israel. #fmqs
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106
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    JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    edited May 2017
    bobajobPB said:

    Anecdata:

    At lunch just now colleague says two of his mates down the pub (I know I know) are considering voting Labour "because of free tuition fees" - they have teenage children.

    Couple of other people remarked how Corbyn "is not as bad on TV as he was when he first got the job - sounds OK"

    Tories need to spend 3 weeks 24/7 demolishing (1) Labour's spending plans and (2) Jeremy Corbyn as a terrorist sympathising near communist

    Tories should be concerned by the poll trend and up their game.

    Corbyn is getting hammered in the polls! That all said, he is the only party leader who is enjoying the campaign. He's not doing too badly and indeed looks better on telly in this situation than he does in normal service. Don't worry though, the Tories are going to win big.
    My main hope staying up to watch the results - and of course the Tories will win - will be to see if the results are bad enough for Labour that they cannot possibly continue with a hard left leadership and agenda.

    Labour will win again soon enough, this will inevitably be the Tories' high water mark and when Labour take over again one day I hope it's with some sort of MiliBlair mark 2, not someone genuinely dangerously left wing.

    We can cope with centre right and centre left vacillations down the decades, but it's hard to come back from being a Venezuela-lite. A tory majority of 70 or 80 will not be enough
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    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,713
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Pretty sure the country 'is' sucking it up, and have already moved on.... It's the Remoaners who are trapped in the past.
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    mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    The age of twitter. All urgent response and witless commentary. No reflective thought.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
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    LennonLennon Posts: 1,744

    Ms. Apocalypse, I quite like most of what I've heard from the Pirates, but cutting copyright to 10 years is not good for writers.

    I've not really got the time to have a lengthy debate so apologies in advance if I don't respond.

    I totally understand where you are coming from on the Copyright issue as a writer, but what little evidence there is suggests that reducing copyright duration would actually be advantageous for most writers. It is more likely that people find earlier work once it has gone out of copyright and then 'discover' you as a writer and want to buy your current output than that you get lucky with a book at some point in the future and then your back catalogue suddenly has value that it didn't have previously. I appreciate that's a bit brief and overly simplistic, but hope gives you some idea of where we are coming from - it's not something that's we've just picked up and not thought through at all.
  • Options

    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    No. She also says the Uk will quit the customs union. This matches what she said last year and earlier this year.
    Indeed it makes sense to reach a customs agreement once out of the customs union.
    I think we will be leaving The EU customs unions, but we will have A customs unions with The EU post Brexit in the ideal world.
    But they quote Customs Arrangements-thats not the same thing.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Is there a shift in language on Brexit in the manifesto? "We will seek [...] a comprehensive free trade and customs agreement."

    No. She also says the Uk will quit the customs union. This matches what she said last year and earlier this year.
    Indeed it makes sense to reach a customs agreement once out of the customs union.
    I think we will be leaving The EU customs unions, but we will have A customs unions with The EU post Brexit in the ideal world.
    Makes sense. What we want is [a customs] union where our goods and services can smoothly enter Single Market for trade with a minimum of red tape/delay, while maintaining our ability to be outside the customs union as far as our ability to negotiate other trade deals etc is concerned.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    chestnut said:

    IanB2 said:

    It's curious, very curious. The VI suggested by the latest polling doesn't match the anecdata or mood music. Are we seeing the British trend of flocking (relatively) to the underdog/oppressed?

    I reckon it's the country's natural reflex against giving any party/PM a massive majority.

    Massive majorities can lead to things like the Iraq War and the poll tax.
    This happened at the end of the 1983 campaign, where Labour came in a couple of % above expectations, almost certainly due to a late swing back to them.
    Labour were in the mid 30's three weeks before polling 27% in 1983.
    Labour polled 28.3% in 1983 in GB.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    Worse, she's Ed Miliband/Gordon Brown in a skirt and high heels.

    I did warn PBers at the start, they now mostly agree, they'll soon be agreeing with me that the country needs George Osborne as PM in the very near future.
    TSE is your genuine plan here to only troll in the comments and leave any insightful analysis for thread headers?
    Why is it when Casino Royale or MaxPB make observations like that, they are accused of being insightful but I'm accused of trolling?
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,830
    bobajobPB said:

    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

    Indeed. I may have to resort to voting Green – even though I think they are mainly bonkers and don't agree with 70% of their policies. I'd vote Women's Equality Party – just because I like Sophie Walker – were they standing in my seat, but they aren't.
    "Vote Womens Equality Party if you would like to bang our leader"
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?

    Not before the Brexiteers stop whining, so none planned
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    Can't believe you're thinking of selling Dier, Rose, and Walker.

    Rumour here in Manchester the first two have already agreed deals with United and City respectively.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?

    Not before the Brexiteers stop whining, so none planned
    What Brexiteer whining ?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    Worse, she's Ed Miliband/Gordon Brown in a skirt and high heels.

    I did warn PBers at the start, they now mostly agree, they'll soon be agreeing with me that the country needs George Osborne as PM in the very near future.
    TSE is your genuine plan here to only troll in the comments and leave any insightful analysis for thread headers?
    How long have you been reading PB?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,346
    DavidL said:

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    That presumably puts the Lib Dems about 7%?
    LDs on 6% and Greens on 1%
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bobajobPB said:

    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

    Indeed. I may have to resort to voting Green – even though I think they are mainly bonkers and don't agree with 70% of their policies. I'd vote Women's Equality Party – just because I like Sophie Walker – were they standing in my seat, but they aren't.
    Yeah, I may vote Green as a protest vote. Like you, I wish the Women's Equality Party were also standing in this area.

    Not into the voter ID or migration polices in May's manifesto. Or ending universal free school meals. I am not sold on the social care plan as well.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
    Genius
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,033
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCPhilipSim: Kezia Dugdale says @WingsScotland "distorts" debate, sayin 44% of SNP MSPs & 50% of SNP MPs "encourage" him. Wants them to "denounce & shun"

    @AidanKerrTweets: Terrific ding dong at #FMQs.

    This is entering dangerous Brian Spanner shaped territory.
    If Dugdale thinks she can lure the SNP out of their cesspit, she is quite the optimist.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,734
    DavidL said:

    This social care change. It needs more explanation and urgently.

    As I read what it says in the manifesto - if person A becomes ill and needs long term social care either in their own home or a residential home, it will be free at the time. When they die it will be taken out of their assets, in most cases this will be the family home. So where does that leave another person, B, who lives with them either as a spouse, civil partner or indeed just partner?

    They normally would probably be expecting to inherit the house and continue living in it.

    On face of it the home will sold and the charges made.

    Have I missed something here?

    Well what happens at the moment is that if there is a couple security is taken over the house and realised when the second one dies, not the first. I can see complications where there are other occupants such as children, grandchildren etc but I do think that the object of our Social Care bill cannot be to boost inheritance.
    "couple security is taken over the house and realised when the second one dies,"

    I want to see that written into the Bill.

    Otherwise, I am sceptical that this isn't about to turn into pasty-gate on stilts. Widowers being thrown out of family home to pay a £200K care bill.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

    Indeed. I may have to resort to voting Green – even though I think they are mainly bonkers and don't agree with 70% of their policies. I'd vote Women's Equality Party – just because I like Sophie Walker – were they standing in my seat, but they aren't.
    "Vote Womens Equality Party if you would like to bang our leader"
    Your words not mine! :)
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    Lennon said:

    tlg86 said:

    Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.

    :)

    You can get Farron next leader to go at 3.5 on BF. I'm tempted on these figures. Corbyn will cling on, as will Nutall imho.
    Although he might not go if he's the only MP left...
    Just taken a nibble on Farron first leader to go.
    Does he automatically cease to be leader when he loses his seat ?
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    SeanT said:

    WTF. Labour on 34?? Three points higher than Miliband?

    That puts Labour around 200 seats. Which means Corbyn definitely stays, even if he loses. And Labour split.

    Yes well they probably won't get 200 seats and losing by 80-100 seats is still completely FUBAR.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
    Cackling.
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    MattWMattW Posts: 19,033

    bobajobPB said:

    There is literally no one even half decent enough to vote for in this GE.

    Indeed. I may have to resort to voting Green – even though I think they are mainly bonkers and don't agree with 70% of their policies. I'd vote Women's Equality Party – just because I like Sophie Walker – were they standing in my seat, but they aren't.
    "Vote Womens Equality Party if you would like to bang our leader"
    You are George Lazenby and I claim my £5.

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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    edited May 2017
    As I've been saying for a while, time to charge General Flynn for violating the Logan Act.

    The previously undisclosed interactions form part of the record now being reviewed by FBI and congressional investigators probing Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election and contacts between Trump’s campaign and Russia.

    Six of the previously undisclosed contacts described to Reuters were phone calls between Sergei Kislyak, Russia's ambassador to the United States, and Trump advisers, including Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, three current and former officials said.

    Conversations between Flynn and Kislyak accelerated after the Nov. 8 vote as the two discussed establishing a back channel for communication between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that could bypass the U.S. national security bureaucracy, which both sides considered hostile to improved relations, four current U.S. officials said.
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,456
    edited May 2017
    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    Hurrah, subsample Sid is back in the groove!

    You could have gone full subsample Tonto and noted that the SNP are down 13 pts from the 56% in the recent Panelbase ss. Missed opportunity!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,236

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
    Why the **** couldn't they have had the balls to give Person of the Year to Putin?

    :angry:
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    May really is trying to troll TSE.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    Hurrah, subsample Sid is back in the groove!
    Don't worry, we've got one, maybe two proper Scottish Westminster VI poll due in the next few days.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Good ole American style suppresion of the vote there.....
    I really don't understand how it stops anyone voting.

    Wisconsin for example will even give you a free photo ID so that you can definitely vote.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,236
    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    Surely part of it is Tory/Lib Dem waverers are looking at Corbyn and deciding that they better vote Tory.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    People don't pay attention to politics like we do, and this is their first proper look at Farron.

    They've concluded he's a God botherer who doesn't believe in democracy.

    That's not popular in this country.
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    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest MORI recalculated :

    SDP - 61
    LAB - 34
    Green 3
    UKIP 2
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,734

    Lennon said:

    tlg86 said:

    Baxter has Nick Clegg losing his seat to Labour on this Ipsos Mori poll.

    :)

    You can get Farron next leader to go at 3.5 on BF. I'm tempted on these figures. Corbyn will cling on, as will Nutall imho.
    Although he might not go if he's the only MP left...
    Just taken a nibble on Farron first leader to go.
    Does he automatically cease to be leader when he loses his seat ?
    Dunno. Good question. I am hedging slightly as I have a lot of bets on LD doing well in various constituencies and that is looking crap now. If they lose seats and go backwards he has to go imho. Clegg seems obvious choice but looks like he is on the way out as well.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938
    I'm guessing Ch4 won't be thrilled:

    Channel 4 will remain publicly owned and will be relocated out of London
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869
    bobajobPB said:
    The supplementary vote is cack. I'm not keen on it, it's worse than FPTP.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    bobajobPB said:
    Yeah? I still don't see the Tories winning in London under FPTP.

    Boris was the exception, not the rule.
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,456

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    Hurrah, subsample Sid is back in the groove!
    Don't worry, we've got one, maybe two proper Scottish Westminster VI poll due in the next few days.
    Cool, the pollsters have been a bit quiet on that front.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,441
    edited May 2017
    tlg86 said:

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
    Why the **** couldn't they have had the balls to give Person of the Year to Putin?

    :angry:
    For a while I scrutinised the picture for signs of President Trump, then I noticed the building is partially white.

    Nice.
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    TomsToms Posts: 2,478

    I think I might do the next thread on this

    Exclusive: Trump campaign had at least 18 undisclosed contacts with Russians: sources

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-contacts-idUSKCN18E106

    https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/865169282216468482
    I wonder, does Trump ever blush?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bobajobPB said:
    Why not?

    This is a FPTP nation. Should end all other voting systems in non devolved elections.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,869

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    Hurrah, subsample Sid is back in the groove!
    Don't worry, we've got one, maybe two proper Scottish Westminster VI poll due in the next few days.
    Cool, the pollsters have been a bit quiet on that front.
    Polls cost money unfortunately, not something the media have a lot of.

    Plus we really need some constituency polls for Scotland, but no one is doing those publicly.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,562

    JackW said:

    Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.

    Interesting times ....

    What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
    Well they are a silly bunch at the best of times. It seems fairly obvious to me that May is attempting to broaden Conservative appeal, with something for the Kippers and something for the centre-left. I see no harm in her doing that if she can pull it off.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    You guys should see Fraser Nelson's twitter, he's not happy
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,403
    TGOHF said:

    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    Is is not push polling if you give people three options which are essentially the following:

    - I voted for the side that won in the referendum
    - I voted for the side that lost but accept the result
    - I voted for the side that lost and don't accept the result
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    isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite

    That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
    No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.

    You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
    The leavers on here who gave a stuff about immigration are almost all banned.

    I am not using that narrative because it's why "I" voted. My job is unaffected by EU immigration. If you think Leave didn't win because of immigration that's down to you, but I think you are wrong.
    I think plenty of Leavers voted that way because of immigration; my point was so what? It doesn't mean the government has to do anything about immigration because as every Leaver can't stop telling us, there was no Leave manifesto, the Leave campaign had no influence on government policy, and it is up to the current government to just leave the EU howsoever they want to do it (or not, if there is a transition period).
    Well the "so what?" is that I was responding to a comment on how the referendum was won, not what the government should do.

    You started off by saying no one "gave a stuff" about immigration, and are now agreeing that "plenty of Leavers voted that way because of immigration"
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,209
    nunu said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    Good ole American style suppresion of the vote there.....
    Voting fraud appeaser.....
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    bobajobPB said:
    The supplementary vote is cack. I'm not keen on it, it's worse than FPTP.
    But its nearly AV!
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    midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Maybe not in Londres...the rest of the country seem delighted about it for better or worse. Or resigned to making the best of it.
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    What is FUBAR?
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938
    edited May 2017

    TGOHF said:

    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    Is is not push polling if you give people three options which are essentially the following:

    - I voted for the side that won in the referendum
    - I voted for the side that lost but accept the result
    - I voted for the side that lost and don't accept the result
    How would you phrase the questions?
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scott_P said:

    GeoffM said:

    Have we left yet?

    Read the quote. "next 5 years"
    I did. It's meaningless.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    What is FUBAR?

    f----ed up beyond all recognition
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,337

    What is FUBAR?

    *ucked Up Beyond All Recognition.
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    MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
    Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.

    But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
    Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938

    What is FUBAR?

    F*cked Up Beyond All Recognition - close cousin of SNAFU Situation Normal All....well, you get the idea,,,,
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,441
    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
    Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.

    But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
    Sneak a win, Sean?

    We have very different views of how Brexit is likely to pan out but if I'm nearly right, Jeremy Corbyn-Chavez could win by a landslide in 2022.

    I'm not trying to scare people. I really think this could happen.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,346

    HYUFD said:

    Yougov Scottish subsample

    SNP 43%
    Tory 28%
    Labour 22%

    So a swing of 10% from SNP to Tory since 2015 in Scotland which is rather bigger than the swing of 3.5% from Labour to the Tories UK wide (albeit a subsample)
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/voting-intention-conservatives-45-labour-32-16-17-/

    Hurrah, subsample Sid is back in the groove!

    You could have gone full subsample Tonto and noted that the SNP are down 13 pts from the 56% in the recent Panelbase ss. Missed opportunity!
    Yougov were pretty accurate in 2015 and in 2014 in Scotland and unlike Panelbase also did a full Scottish poll a month ago which gave similar figures
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,456
    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
    Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.

    But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
    Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
    Now they're REALLY worried.
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    JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    You guys should see Fraser Nelson's twitter, he's not happy

    Ah the poor Brexiteers who thought the Leave vote was going to lead to turbo charged free market capitalism...
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    TGOHF said:

    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    Is is not push polling if you give people three options which are essentially the following:

    - I voted for the side that won in the referendum
    - I voted for the side that lost but accept the result
    - I voted for the side that lost and don't accept the result
    That all seems reasonable.

    For completeness you could maybe split the first option into Won - Glad/Regret but you'd be measuring something else.
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    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @Jack_Blanchard_: Tory manifesto: People must show ID to vote in future elections

    How much in person voting fraud is there? As opposed to postal vote fraud?
    Not a lot - 26 suspected incidents in 2015 - https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2016/12/how-big-a-problem-is-voting-fraud-in-uk-elections.html/ - because it's hard. If you're pretending to be someone else, there's a chance that one of them will show up eventually (plus the polling station staff will twig eventually, so you need a team of people). Ballots are numbered so you can track back and see which way the fraudsters voted. If you're registering a bunch of fake people you have to give an NI number or an excuse, and if you're organised enough to do that you're organised enough to sort out some fake IDs.

    Unless I've missed an attack vector, I'm not sure that it's going to do an awful lot, at least in terms of its stated purpose. I'd also assume that older (i.e. more likely to be Tory) voters are much less likely to have a photo driving license or a passport, but maybe they'll be more motivated to go and get some form of election ID card.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,403
    edited May 2017

    TGOHF said:

    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    Is is not push polling if you give people three options which are essentially the following:

    - I voted for the side that won in the referendum
    - I voted for the side that lost but accept the result
    - I voted for the side that lost and don't accept the result
    How would you phrase the questions?
    - 'Do you think Brexit was the correct decision?' or 'Do you think Brexit will be good or bad for Britain?'
    - 'How did you vote in the referendum?'
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    glwglw Posts: 9,562

    People don't pay attention to politics like we do, and this is their first proper look at Farron.

    They've concluded he's a God botherer who doesn't believe in democracy.

    The so-called Liberal Democrats as I've said a few times.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Just a reminder to those thinking may might not achieve. Mori has them on 49. If they get 49 it will be a bloodbath.
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    FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Ishmael_Z said:

    What is FUBAR?

    f----ed up beyond all recognition
    Thank you and JJ. Excellent phrase. I shall probably introduce it into appropriate meetings.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    JonathanD said:

    You guys should see Fraser Nelson's twitter, he's not happy

    Ah the poor Brexiteers who thought the Leave vote was going to lead to turbo charged free market capitalism...
    Yeah, can't say I feel sorry for them there. I do like Fraser Nelson though.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,938

    TGOHF said:

    bobajobPB said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:

    TGOHF said:

    Talk about a tin ear to the mood of the nation.

    I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.

    You won! Suck it up...
    Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
    The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
    Polling doesn't support your "view"

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

    Is is not push polling if you give people three options which are essentially the following:

    - I voted for the side that won in the referendum
    - I voted for the side that lost but accept the result
    - I voted for the side that lost and don't accept the result
    How would you phrase the questions?
    - 'Do you think Brexit was the correct decision?' or 'Do you think Brexit will be good or bad for Britain?'
    - 'How did you vote in the referendum?'
    These questions are already regularly asked - this set posed the question in the context of where we are today (BTW, ill-advised to suggest respected member of BPC indulges in 'push-polling'....)
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,056
    Mr. Lennon, I appreciate that response, although I still disagree entirely.

    I've got some books deliberately free or very low-priced (a 99p 100,000 word novel, an abridged free version of another book, first episode of Wandering Phoenix and Roaming Tiger is free) and try to price other stuff competitively.

    A book can take years to write and then the same time to come to market. Piracy's a major problem and reducing the time money can be earnt to just 10 years really doesn't appeal at all.

    It's probably just a philosophical difference as I don't think the Pirates are standing in Morley and Outwood, but it's a shame because I strongly agree with a lot of other things your party has said.
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    The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    MikeK said:

    SeanT said:

    nunu said:

    SeanT said:

    Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??

    Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?

    (I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)

    Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?

    It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
    Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.

    But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
    Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
    Now they're REALLY worried.
    If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
This discussion has been closed.