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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov poll carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday has CON lead down to 13%

With so many surveys coming out from so many firms at the moment a key factor is to look at the fieldwork dates. This latest one from YouGov was carried out on Tuesday and Wednesday and sees the Tory lead at its smallest in any poll from any pollster this month.

Read the full story here

peter_from_putney

First ..... again!

CarlottaVance

Second! Like Scon......when the YouGov tables come out - check London - they've had difficulty meeting quota so often significantly upweight a small sample - which has led to 15 point swings between polls......

CarlottaVance

It's all going terribly well:

LABOUR is engulfed in fresh turmoil as a group of councillors prepare to quit the party just hours after the suspension of its entire team in Aberdeen.

Up to six South Lanarkshire councillors have already walked or are on the cusp of leaving Labour as political chaos mounts amid the fallout from the local elections.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15292529.Fresh_chaos_as_new_wave_of_councillors_prepare_to_quit_Labour/

CarlottaVance

Grauniad on Trexit:

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/may/18/trexit-online-gamblers-bet-on-early-end-to-trump-presidency?CMP=twt_gu

rkrkrk

Feeling nervous about Trump making it through 2017 now...
Betfair has the lay at 3.95 at the moment.

Amazing that Trump is in this position so soon.

peter_from_putney

Baxterising YouGov's latest numbers suggests the following possible outcome:

Con .................. 371
Lab ................... 197
SNP .................... 55 (Sturgeon must love Baxter!)
LibDem ................. 5 (Yes, just the one Black Cab!)
Plaid ..................... 3
Green ................... 1 (Yes, just the one push bike!)
N.I. ..................... 18

Total (incl Spkr): 650

Con Majority ....... 92

Not altogether surprising post wannacry's impact on the NHS and post Labour being very much centre stage with their manifesto, resulting in support for both the Tories and LibDems being knocked back. The Tories launch their plans today; it will be interesting to see how the polls have moved overall by the weekend.

RobD

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

peter_from_putney

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

CarlottaVance

RobD said:

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

Currently SNP 46 (I doubt Nicola loves this....)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Which feels low.....Con on 11 which feels way too high - Lab on zero, which after Aberdeen feels high too.....

peter_from_putney

RobD said:

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

I guessed that was probably the case - the present consensus is that the SNP will win around 47 or 48 seats, i.e. 7 or 8 seats fewer than Baxter's unadjusted projection suggests. Again, based on consensus, this probably breaks down to one additional seat for both Labour and the LibDems with five or six additional seats for the Scottish Tories.

daodao

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

Currently SNP 46 (I doubt Nicola loves this....)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Which feels low.....Con on 11 which feels way too high - Lab on zero, which after Aberdeen feels high too.....

The prediction of 10+ Tory gains in Scotland could be an over-estimate. It is difficult for a party that was third at the last election coming through to win under FPTP solely due to tactical voting (as would be the case for the Tory unionists in much of Scotland) rather than real support, as was the case for the SNP at GE2015. Bar charts can't be produced by the 3rd party showing that they are the main challenger to the incumbent.

The main threat to the SNP from the Tories is in the 2 borders seats that they hold (the other one is already Tory-held) and the North-East. The Tory challenge may be less effective where Labour were in 2nd place in GE2015, e.g. in East Renfrewshire and Edinburgh South-West.

The key aim for many in this unnecessary GE will be to keep the predicted Tory majority as low as possible, so tactical anti-Tory voting may be a significant factor across much of GB, including Scotland, which would help the SNP.

Pong

peter_from_putney said:

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

Yes.

I tipped this a couple of months ago at the same odds - but once again;

Lay 2017 @ 3/1

--

Sadly, it's not being offered, but...

The value bet would probably be to buy "Trump days in office" on the spreads. The spread companies could easily derive a price from the fairly liquid betfair market.

@Jungleland ? Spreadex? IG?

CarlottaVance

daodao said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

Currently SNP 46 (I doubt Nicola loves this....)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Which feels low.....Con on 11 which feels way too high - Lab on zero, which after Aberdeen feels high too.....

The key aim for many in this unnecessary GE will be to keep the predicted Tory majority as low as possible, so tactical anti-Tory voting may be a significant factor across much of GB, including Scotland, which would help the SNP.

Since your premise 'unnecessary GE' is not supported by the polling:

Is Theresa May right or wrong to seek an early general election? (Ex- Don't Knows)
Right: 74
Wrong: 26

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/public-think-theresa-may-right-call-early-election/

I think the rest of your hypothesis may be safely discarded.....especially given the respective Leader's ratings.....

Sandpit

Morning. So this election could be a good test of the premise that leader favourability is a better indicator of seats won than the straight VI. If the premise is correct then Mrs May is looking at a landslide, if not then it will be just a large majority.

Alternatively, the pollsters could be screwing up royally again, as they did two years ago!

CarlottaVance

Trump's 'Flynn's a good guy' may not survive much scrutiny:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article151149702.html

Sandpit

Pong said:

peter_from_putney said:

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

Yes.

I tipped this a couple of months ago at the same odds - but once again;

Lay 2017 @ 3/1

--

Sadly, it's not being offered, but...

The value bet would probably be to buy "Trump days in office" on the spreads. The spread companies could easily derive a price from the fairly liquid betfair market.

@Jungleland ? Spreadex? IG?

That's a spread bet and a half. I'd expect the spread to be priced before 20th Jan 2021, but not much before. Still a buy though, his supporters don't care about all the stuff that's dominating the news in Washington as long as he brings jobs. At 4.6 on Betfair, he might even be value for re-election.

peter_from_putney

CarlottaVance said:

daodao said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

@peter_from_putney - when you plug in Scottish poll figures into the Scotland prediction boxes you get a smaller SNP tally.

Currently SNP 46 (I doubt Nicola loves this....)

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/scotland.html

Which feels low.....Con on 11 which feels way too high - Lab on zero, which after Aberdeen feels high too.....

The key aim for many in this unnecessary GE will be to keep the predicted Tory majority as low as possible, so tactical anti-Tory voting may be a significant factor across much of GB, including Scotland, which would help the SNP.

Since your premise 'unnecessary GE' is not supported by the polling:

Is Theresa May right or wrong to seek an early general election? (Ex- Don't Knows)
Right: 74
Wrong: 26

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/18/public-think-theresa-may-right-call-early-election/

I think the rest of your hypothesis may be safely discarded.....especially given the respective Leader's ratings.....

It's odd how a number of lefties have taken to calling this an "unnecessary" election. For those of us, I would suggest a very sizeable majority, who wish to avoid for at least the foreseeable future and preferably forever seeing the UK taken over by a bunch of Marxists and driven into bankruptcy as a result, it's difficult to contemplate anything MORE necessary.

chestnut

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Nigelb

Pong said:

peter_from_putney said:

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

Yes.

I tipped this a couple of months ago at the same odds - but once again;

Lay 2017 @ 3/1

--

Sadly, it's not being offered, but...

The value bet would probably be to buy "Trump days in office" on the spreads. The spread companies could easily derive a price from the fairly liquid betfair market.

@Jungleland ? Spreadex? IG?

I'm really not so sure. It's entirely possible that Trump could be gone by the end of the year IF evidence against him is out there. Things seem to be moving rather quickly...
http://www.palmerreport.com/politics/edva-mashals-trump/2901/

Black_Rook

I have collated polling histories, separated by company, for the period from 1 April to present.
Labour VI and deficit vs. the Conservatives is shown. I have selected ICM and YouGov, as they have published the largest number of polls at the most regular intervals throughout the relevant period.

ICM:
25%, -18
26%, -22
27%, -21 (first survey after election called)
28%, -19
28%, -19
28%, -18
27%, -22
28%, -20

YouGov:
25%, -17
23%, -21
24%, -24
25%, -23 (first survey after election called)
29%, -16
31%, -13
29%, -19
28%, -19
30%, -16
31%, -18
32%, -13

As you can see, ICM have shown no meaningful change in Labour's position throughout the campaign, whereas YouGov's numbers jumped early on, and have risen further since.

Both may be, but one must be, wrong. Labour cannot be both improving and flat-lining at the same time.

marke09

RIP Rhodri Morgan, former First Minister of Wales who has died aged 77

rkrkrk

You can lay Corbyn to officially cease being Labour leader by end of June at 2.66...
Some posters on here think he will try to cling on - and a challenge would certainly take us into July.

He may also stand down - but stay in place to preside over the selection of his successor... I think that's possible under Labour party rules...

peter_from_putney

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

felix

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

Alistair

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

Black_Rook

Meanwhile, in France:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/865075582962421761

En Marche! clearly in the lead - but Front National tying with the centre-right in second. They're not going away.

RobD

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Winter fuel allowance is ridiculous in that even millionaires are eligible. Either roll it into the actual pension or target it to those who need it most.

RobD

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

Agreed.

Black_Rook

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

You are correct. The Government can't afford to keep giving away so much "free" stuff.

Of course, the big question is whether the voters will be grown up about all of this, or turn to the manifesto of Jeremy "a pony for every reader" Corbyn in a fit of pique. It's a serious gamble: can Theresa May pull it off?

Charles

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

Lack of kitchens in schools?

RoyalBlue

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

chestnut

Black_Rook said:

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

You are correct. The Government can't afford to keep giving away so much "free" stuff.

Of course, the big question is whether the voters will be grown up about all of this, or turn to the manifesto of Jeremy "a pony for every reader" Corbyn in a fit of pique. It's a serious gamble: can Theresa May pull it off?

£25bn a year is being spent on the EU and Aid. How much is this 'saving' ?

david_herdson

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

timmo

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

I can.. it was a policy dreamt up on the back of a fag packet(literally) by Clegg and still is struggling to be impkemented.

Alistair

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

Free school meals boost academic performance and general health amongst children from the poorest sections of society. Making them universal reduces/eliminates the stigma attached to them eliminating the number that do not take them.

They are a dumb arsed thing to cut.

CarlottaVance

Ouch!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/content/dam/PortalPictures/May-2017/matt portal corr 17052017-small.png

peter_from_putney

RobD said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Winter fuel allowance is ridiculous in that even millionaires are eligible. Either roll it into the actual pension or target it to those who need it most.

The idea of paying it as an identifiable allowance is of course to provide the elderly with the means to pay their fuel bills when most needed. Scrap it if you must, but it will be a most unpopular measure, carried out at a time when energy costs are going through the roof (literally!). Instead it would probably make sense to reduce it over time, say 3 - 4 years and add a residual element to the State pension to benefit non taxpayers.

DecrepitJohnL

Pong said:

peter_from_putney said:

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

Yes.

I tipped this a couple of months ago at the same odds - but once again;

Lay 2017 @ 3/1

--

Sadly, it's not being offered, but...

The value bet would probably be to buy "Trump days in office" on the spreads. The spread companies could easily derive a price from the fairly liquid betfair market.

@Jungleland ? Spreadex? IG?

The known unknown is how Trump himself will react to this pressure. He is not a politician who has spent his lifetime climbing the greasy pole: he is a billionaire with a better home than the White House and a more luxurious plane than Air Force One. He might just decide the game's not worth the candle and resign with immunity.

rkrkrk

DecrepitJohnL said:

Pong said:

peter_from_putney said:

With a two or three month summer holiday period stretching ahead and the inevitably very lengthy process required for any impeachment procedure, I wouldn't be rushing to bet on Trump's departure at any time during 2017.
For my money, the best bet would probably be 2018 and then more likely on the grounds of *cough* ill health, rather than by impeachment, currently available at odds of 5.2 (5.0 net) for small stakes with betfair.

Yes.

I tipped this a couple of months ago at the same odds - but once again;

Lay 2017 @ 3/1

--

Sadly, it's not being offered, but...

The value bet would probably be to buy "Trump days in office" on the spreads. The spread companies could easily derive a price from the fairly liquid betfair market.

@Jungleland ? Spreadex? IG?

The known unknown is how Trump himself will react to this pressure. He is not a politician who has spent his lifetime climbing the greasy pole: he is a billionaire with a better home than the White House and a more luxurious plane than Air Force One. He might just decide the game's not worth the candle and resign with immunity.

This is very true. The speech about how unfairly he has been treated strikes me as one step along the road of deciding he doesn't really want the job any more...

felix

Alistair said:

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

Free school meals boost academic performance and general health amongst children from the poorest sections of society. Making them universal reduces/eliminates the stigma attached to them eliminating the number that do not take them.

They are a dumb arsed thing to cut.

Rubbish - very easy to ensure anonymity if required. The country is not rich enough to hand out free food to those who can afford it and to do so reduces the cash available for those in genuine and deserving need.

Freggles

timmo said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

I can.. it was a policy dreamt up on the back of a fag packet(literally) by Clegg and still is struggling to be impkemented.

It has plenty of evidence behind it from pilots as very effective. Yes, it was rushed into and should have been accompanied by capital investment, but it's still the right thing to do

Black_Rook

chestnut said:

Black_Rook said:

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

You are correct. The Government can't afford to keep giving away so much "free" stuff.

Of course, the big question is whether the voters will be grown up about all of this, or turn to the manifesto of Jeremy "a pony for every reader" Corbyn in a fit of pique. It's a serious gamble: can Theresa May pull it off?

£25bn a year is being spent on the EU and Aid. How much is this 'saving' ?

We are leaving the EU. As for the aid budget, I'm instinctively in the charity begins at home camp myself but (leaving aside the rights and wrongs of it,) I can understand how Government might wish to use this in a foreign policy context. My biggest concerns about the aid budget are (a) how much is wasted and (b) related to that, what proportion is spent in an unseemly hurry because changes to the GDP statistics can trigger large extra releases of capital to DFID at short notice?

The Government has to find savings from somewhere. Measured such as stopping free dinners for middle class kids and axing winter fuel payments for wealthy pensioners may only raise so much on their own, but if you make a whole series of such cuts you can save a more significant sum of money.

Also, what he said:

david_herdson said:

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'd otherwise be entitled to.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/braddjaffy/status/865013401923309569

Jonathan

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

Charles

Alistair said:

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

Free school meals boost academic performance and general health amongst children from the poorest sections of society. Making them universal reduces/eliminates the stigma attached to them eliminating the number that do not take them.

They are a dumb arsed thing to cut.

You are right on the nutritional aspects (and i am a strong supporter of breakfast clubs for just that reason), But it's a poorly designed, expensive, Ill-targeted and badly implemented way to do it.

surbiton

All together: Sleazy broken Tories, on the slide !

RobD

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Sandpit

RoyalBlue said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

Keeping all these freebies out of the manifesto is good politics, as it allows for a serious reform and simplification of the tax and benefits system - rather than the tinkering and additional complexity of the past couple of decades.

foxinsoxuk

RoyalBlue said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

Maggie's biggest vote share was in 79. She lost share in both 83 and 87. The landslides were due to the SDP/Alliance.

Corbyn is lucky that Farron has not run a good campaign, and Labour have had a good campaign, wisely focussing on their own topics rather than Brexit. Britons are bored of Brexit, one thing that Farron has got wrong.

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

That is precisely what the Tories have been telling us for the last seven years.

They were lying, of course.

This is the right decision and it should be extended to all other benefits that wealthy pensioners get.

chestnut

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

I don't see this as a handout. It's a purchased service.

I am guessing the means test will work out badly for Mr and Mrs Average.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

That is precisely what the Tories have been telling us for the last seven years.

They were lying, of course.

This is the right decision and it should be extended to all other benefits that wealthy pensioners get.

Their main argument was that means testing would cost more than the cost of the benefit?

SouthamObserver

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

Jonathan

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Black_Rook

Question: is the Tory manifesto going to be more radically redistributive than the Labour one?

Jeremy Corbyn can try all he likes to go after the (highly mobile and not very numerous) wealthy, and big corporations, but if the going gets tough for these groups then the individuals have the chance to run away and the companies can withdraw investment. His tax rises could actually depress revenues.

Theresa May, on the other hand, appears to be going after home-owning pensioners and the middle classes in an effort to try finally to fix the hole in the budget. Fascinating.

felix

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

foxinsoxuk

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

Is the simple solution "roast baby"?

DavidL

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Jonathan

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

What is that?

RobD

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

felix

foxinsoxuk said:

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

Is the simple solution "roast baby"?

Yawn. One group that definitely require no further handouts are overpaid GPs.

RobD

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

felix

Jonathan said:

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

What is that?

Coitus interruptus

Jonathan

felix said:

Jonathan said:

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

What is that?

Coitus interruptus

Hmm. Sorry kids, dad lost his job, would you mind jumping in this big rubber sack?

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are cash-strapped university, research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Makes you wonder why it wasn't done before, doesn't it :-D

freetochoose

No surprise that Corbyn's promises of free money appeal to parts of the electorate, not sure how many of them will be bothered to turn up and vote though.

Pulpstar

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are "cash-strapped university", research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

I'd love to know how any university is "cash strapped" with the £9,000 fees a year. Unless its gone straight into massive VC pay inflation.
Always possible I suppose.

Recidivist

Black_Rook said:

I have collated polling histories, separated by company, for the period from 1 April to present.
Labour VI and deficit vs. the Conservatives is shown. I have selected ICM and YouGov, as they have published the largest number of polls at the most regular intervals throughout the relevant period.

ICM:
25%, -18
26%, -22
27%, -21 (first survey after election called)
28%, -19
28%, -19
28%, -18
27%, -22
28%, -20

YouGov:
25%, -17
23%, -21
24%, -24
25%, -23 (first survey after election called)
29%, -16
31%, -13
29%, -19
28%, -19
30%, -16
31%, -18
32%, -13

As you can see, ICM have shown no meaningful change in Labour's position throughout the campaign, whereas YouGov's numbers jumped early on, and have risen further since.

Both may be, but one must be, wrong. Labour cannot be both improving and flat-lining at the same time.

That's true. But it is possible to doing particularly well or particularly badly in the exact locations where it most matters. Ed M and Hilary C both managed the latter.

freetochoose

foxinsoxuk said:

RoyalBlue said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

Maggie's biggest vote share was in 79. She lost share in both 83 and 87. The landslides were due to the SDP/Alliance.

Corbyn is lucky that Farron has not run a good campaign, and Labour have had a good campaign, wisely focussing on their own topics rather than Brexit. Britons are bored of Brexit, one thing that Farron has got wrong.

Spot on re Brexit/Farron, beyond a few naysayers on here everybody just wants it done.

felix

Jonathan said:

felix said:

Jonathan said:

felix said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

One of the reasons that public spending is out of control is the provision of universal benefits.
If you cannot afford to provide for a family there is a simple solution and it is nothing to do with the government.

What is that?

Coitus interruptus

Hmm. Sorry kids, dad lost his job, would you mind jumping in this big rubber sack?

Oh get over yourself - the outrage bus is already full. Means testing ensures those in need get the benefit and helps cut out the m/c freeloaders who'd use the cash saving for extra nanny hours.

SouthamObserver

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Top talent in the university sector may initially come into the UK at a relatively low level, while for start-ups they may be attracted by what is on offer in the future, not now. If you are a big bank then doubling fees is not a problem (hard Brexit is much more of a concern). If you are a tech start-up or a university, it is a major issue.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are cash-strapped university, research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

I find it hard to imagine a situation where a company hiring someone at the top end would be able to afford £1k, but not £2k. Especially when you consider the difference will be about 1% of the total cost of employing that person.

Scott_P

SouthamObserver said:

what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/865079534768594944

CarlottaVance

Interesting analysis by YouGov:

Despite poor media coverage, internal splits and poor leader ratings, Labour’s support is currently at around the same level it was in 2015. This is down to a combination of adding people who will vote Labour because of Jeremy Corbyn and holding on to previous Labour voters despite of him. But the current coalition is unstable and might not hold

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/18/how-labours-support-holding/

SouthamObserver

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are cash-strapped university, research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

I find it hard to imagine a situation where a company hiring someone at the top end would be able to afford £1k, but not £2k. Especially when you consider the difference will be about 1% of the total cost of employing that person.

Yes, it is this inability to see things in anything other than black and white that always ends up causing trouble. Making things harder is generally not a good idea. Post-Brexit we need to be as flexible and as accommodating to entrepreneurial activity and our crown jewel sectors as possible. Putting in place additional barriers will be counter-productive.

Jonathan

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in crappie forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are cash-strapped university, research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

I find it hard to imagine a situation where a company hiring someone at the top end would be able to afford £1k, but not £2k. Especially when you consider the difference will be about 1% of the total cost of employing that person.

Yes, it is this inability to see things in anything other than black and white that always ends up causing trouble. Making things harder is generally not a good idea. Post-Brexit we need to be as flexible and as accommodating to entrepreneurial activity and our crown jewel sectors as possible. Putting in place additional barriers will be counter-productive.

I just question how much harder it has actually made it. Not very, I suspect.

Gallowgate

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

All those people employed will then need to go onto benefits!

RobD

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

You think means testing this will add on another billion?

Jonathan

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

You think means testing this will add on another billion?

Given the efficiency of the civil service, government it procurement and the specific difficulties of means testing elderly people who can't fill in online forms I wouldn't put it past them.

freetochoose

Spurs are a shade of odds on at Leicester tonight, they might be both jaded and comfortable and Leicester are in reasonable form after sacking Ranieri. Shakepeare will be desperate to get the job so I'd suggest laying Tottenham.

DecrepitJohnL

RoyalBlue said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

Mrs Thatcher did have a magic money tree; two, in fact. North Sea Oil and privatisation receipts.

Freggles

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

SouthamObserver said:

RobD said:

DavidL said:

SouthamObserver said:

Tory plans to make it more expensive and more difficult to hire top talent from abroad will cause immense to damage to the UK. Our university and research sectors will suffer hugely as a result, as will the high-tech sector. May's insatiable craving for positive headlines from the anti-European right wing press is going to actively harm this country.

What are you talking about? Who is wanting to put any barriers in the way of "top talent" coming to the UK? No Minister that I have heard. The idea of much tighter requirements is much further down the food chain.

Suspect he's talking about the increase from £1000 to £2000 for a visa. Peanuts if you are hiring 'top talent'

Not if you are cash-strapped university, research institution or start-up already struggling because you have seen your income reduced by Brexit. Of course, it will make little difference to big companies and financial institutions - what will matter more to them is the kind of Brexit deal we get.

I find it hard to imagine a situation where a company hiring someone at the top end would be able to afford £1k, but not £2k. Especially when you consider the difference will be about 1% of the total cost of employing that person.

Yes, it is this inability to see things in anything other than black and white that always ends up causing trouble. Making things harder is generally not a good idea. Post-Brexit we need to be as flexible and as accommodating to entrepreneurial activity and our crown jewel sectors as possible. Putting in place additional barriers will be counter-productive.

I just question how much harder it has actually made it. Not very, I suspect.

It's funny how when lefties propose even the slightest reduction in corporate welfare, Tories are all "THIS IS BAD FOR BUSINESS" but May can run the whole thing into an iceberg and suddenly business is so resilient. It's intellectual dishonesty.

Fysics_Teacher

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

You think means testing this will add on another billion?

Given the efficiency of the civil service, government it procurement and the specific difficulties of means testing elderly people who can't fill in online forms I wouldn't put it past them.

What if it is added to an existing means tested benefit?

Jonathan

DecrepitJohnL said:

RoyalBlue said:

peter_from_putney said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact.

Totally agree - we've been down this divisive and highly contentious route before - shades in fact of Thatcher, the milk snatcher!
Scrap free school meals, scrap the triple lock, scrap the Winter Fuel Allowance., etc, etc. Is Theresa May actually targeting a majority of under 50 seats, perhaps based on the theory that it will somehow make the parliamentary party more manageable?

Fortunately, nothing like a majority of the public think money grows on trees. This will not be nearly as damaging as you suggest.

Thatcher won 2 landslides, btw

Mrs Thatcher did have a magic money tree; two, in fact. North Sea Oil and privatisation receipts.

The magic money tree is the Tory logo after all.

rkrkrk

Black_Rook said:

chestnut said:

Black_Rook said:

felix said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

You could be right about vote losing but it is important that a message is sent out that there are limits to state largesse - especially for those with a clear ability to pay.

You are correct. The Government can't afford to keep giving away so much "free" stuff.

Of course, the big question is whether the voters will be grown up about all of this, or turn to the manifesto of Jeremy "a pony for every reader" Corbyn in a fit of pique. It's a serious gamble: can Theresa May pull it off?

£25bn a year is being spent on the EU and Aid. How much is this 'saving' ?

We are leaving the EU. As for the aid budget, I'm instinctively in the charity begins at home camp myself but (leaving aside the rights and wrongs of it,) I can understand how Government might wish to use this in a foreign policy context. My biggest concerns about the aid budget are (a) how much is wasted and (b) related to that, what proportion is spent in an unseemly hurry because changes to the GDP statistics can trigger large extra releases of capital to DFID at short notice?

The Government has to find savings from somewhere. Measured such as stopping free dinners for middle class kids and axing winter fuel payments for wealthy pensioners may only raise so much on their own, but if you make a whole series of such cuts you can save a more significant sum of money.

Also, what he said:

david_herdson said:

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'd otherwise be entitled to.

On the DFID spending target... It's a challenge to hit 0.7 exactly but I think they manage it quite cleverly to ensure they don't actually make poor real world decisions because of funding rules.

One way they manage is to use large payments to organisations like Global Fund or UN by bringing them forward or pushing back. From the recipients perspective getting £500m at the end of one financial year or start of next is not that big a deal. It's not a big deal in reality either but it massages the figures nicely.

chestnut

Means testing the pensioners' Winter Fuel Payment is very easy because it will be aligned to the existing Pension Credit system. If they had any sense they would incorporate the Xmas Bonus and Cold Weather Payments into a single Winter Grant.

May's potential problem with universality and means testing is that there are a big rump of people who fall between means test beneficiaries and 'middle class freeloaders'.

ThreeQuidder

You're not even pretending any more, are you? I doubt anyone is shocked that this is the poll to get picked for its own header.

RobD

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

You think means testing this will add on another billion?

Given the efficiency of the civil service, government it procurement and the specific difficulties of means testing elderly people who can't fill in online forms I wouldn't put it past them.

Here's a report on the cost of means testing. If only 20% of pensioners received the means tested benefit, any cost less than £400 per claimant is a saving (underestimating it because I assumed each pensioner received £100).

https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2011/09/10121464.pdf

Jonathan

Fysics_Teacher said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

RobD said:

Jonathan said:

david_herdson said:

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

How about: those who can pay, should pay; and also, UFSM has resulted in a skewing of the actual FSM applicaions, meaning that many schools in deprived areas miss out on funding they'dotherwise be entitled to.

This Tory obsession with means testing is weird. They love making people jump through hoops even when it costs them more overall . It's almost a fetishism to make anyone requiring help to feel second class.

You think it will cost more to means-test winter fuel allowance than to give it to everyone?

Means tests are hugely expensive particularly for the old and infirm who will need help to jump through hoops.

Here's an analysis on it. Looks like it could save quite a bit, unless the cost of means testing exceeds £1.5bn

http://www.if.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Briefing-Note-Means-testing-Universal-Benefits.pdf

Wonders how much you would save if you stripped out civil service bureaucracy, ATOS, capita and complex IT systems and the assessment centres and now home help required to help old folk fill in chappy forms.

Means testing is a multi billion pound industry.

You think means testing this will add on another billion?

Given the efficiency of the civil service, government it procurement and the specific difficulties of means testing elderly people who can't fill in online forms I wouldn't put it past them.

What if it is added to an existing means tested benefit?

Child benefit?

Bromptonaut

Distinct lack of rejoicing from the PB Tories on here this morning.

How about a sing-song to cheer everyone up?

"Don't be stupid, be a smarty,
Come and join the Nasty party"

Fysics_Teacher

There can't be that many people who get both the winter fuel allowance and child benefit surely?

RobD

Bromptonaut said:

Distinct lack of rejoicing from the PB Tories on here this morning.

How about a sing-song to cheer everyone up?

"Don't be stupid, be a smarty,
Come and join the Nasty party"

Do keep up, we're already into year seven of the thousand year PB Tory reich.

Jonathan

I don't want my old dad, who had a stroke and spends most of his day desperately remembering to take his 530 pills having to worry about filling in a bloody form to get something he is entitled to.

What will happen is his anxiety will win, he won't fill in the form and he will lose out. Meanwhile a bean counter will see that as a success rather than the dismal failure it is.

SouthamObserver

And a Death Tax, it looks like.

Remember when the Tories were opposed to them?? :-D

The screeching u-turns about to be performed on here and elsewhere will be something to behold!!

RobD

SouthamObserver said:

And a Death Tax, it looks like.

Remember when the Tories were opposed to them?? :-D

The screeching u-turns about to be performed on here and elsewhere will be something to behold!!

IHT is going up?

ThreeQuidder

Alistair said:

chestnut said:

Scrapping universal free school meals for infants is a vote loser for the Tories. Bad move . Stupid, in fact. Pointless penny pinching.

Universal free school meals is good policy. I can't think of a justification for scraping it (as opposed to the other things that are rumoured for the chop which I can construct an agreement for)

It means that poorer families, who would get FSM anyway, are effectively subsidising richer families who don't need FSM.

There are other arguments for the policy, the most persuasive I heard when it was introduced was that it might reduce the stigma of being on FSM in the non universal years, but the subsidy argument is certainly one for removing it.

DecrepitJohnL

ThreeQuidder said:

You're not even pretending any more, are you? I doubt anyone is shocked that this is the poll to get picked for its own header.

Mike (who wrote the header) is a LibDem. As the header notes, "The LD share continues to tumble" so I think we can rule out political bias as the grounds for highlighting this poll.

SquareRoot

Fecking wonderful .. just as I get entitled to winter fuel allowance, the fecking Tories want to take it away from me. I'll abstain!