Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.
Interesting times ....
What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
Well they are a silly bunch at the best of times. It seems fairly obvious to me that May is attempting to broaden Conservative appeal, with something for the Kippers and something for the centre-left. I see no harm in her doing that if she can pull it off.
I will tolerate May's shift to the Left if she succeeds in thrashing Corbyn's Labour. But if she pulls off an underwhelming victory, barely increasing her majority to 40 or 50, say, then she will have failed, quite epically.
Yeah all she is succeeding in doing is moving the centre to the left and normalising government intervention as a policy.
Will just say that the Labour vote definitely seems to be firming up in the last few days. To my huge surprise, fox-hunting has started coming up a LOT from people as a reason not to vote Tory (my assumption was people really wouldn't care much about it), as well as NHS cuts still being mentioned a lot.
This is all still largely 2015 Labour voters, though (that we're not even really bothering to go after people who voted for anyone else in 2015 probably tells its own story).
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Grauniad take on Mayism - conclusion of manifesto:
Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.
True Conservatism means a commitment to country and community; a belief not just in society but in the good that government can do; a respect for the local and national institutions that bind us together; an insight that change is inevitable and change can be good, but that change should be shaped, through strong leadership and clear principles, for the common good.
We know that our responsibility to one another is greater than the rights we hold as individuals. We know that we all have obligations to one another, because that is what community and nation demands. We understand that nobody, however powerful, has succeeded alone and that we all therefore have a debt to others. We respect the fact that society is a contract between the generations: a partnership between those who are living, those who have lived before us, and those who are yet to be born.
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
Now they're REALLY worried.
If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
Those who know her know she LOVES door-knocking on the campaign trail.
Mr. eek, suppose someone, who is a wonderful F1 tipster, had rotten book sales despite consistently good reviews. Now imagine after years of trying he finally gets a big hit. Not a monster, let's say 12,000 sales. But those reader want to try his other books. Are you really saying they should be able to be made free, and hence deprive him of any income from them?
There are numerous downsides to writing. It's very hard to make sales, it's hard to get any kind of profile, the market is saturated, getting an agent is hard, getting a publisher is hard. One of the few upsides is that if you have a hit later the books that were duds when released *might* see some extra secondary sales.
@BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite
That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question
No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.
You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
The leavers on here who gave a stuff about immigration are almost all banned.
I am not using that narrative because it's why "I" voted. My job is unaffected by EU immigration. If you think Leave didn't win because of immigration that's down to you, but I think you are wrong.
I think plenty of Leavers voted that way because of immigration; my point was so what? It doesn't mean the government has to do anything about immigration because as every Leaver can't stop telling us, there was no Leave manifesto, the Leave campaign had no influence on government policy, and it is up to the current government to just leave the EU howsoever they want to do it (or not, if there is a transition period).
Well the "so what?" is that I was responding to a comment on how the referendum was won, not what the government should do.
You started off by saying no one "gave a stuff" about immigration, and are now agreeing that "plenty of Leavers voted that way because of immigration"
No - it was to show the illogicality of your statement: "The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs."
While that was certainly a factor for plenty of people, it was by no means the only or main or pertinent point but you are framing the whole debate about Brexit over immigration.
Fair play to the Tories on at least trying to do something post Dilnot on care fees - ok it's got holes in the plans but it's something rather than the long grass that successive Govts have done with the issue....
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
Now they're REALLY worried.
If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
Those who know her know she LOVES door-knocking on the campaign trail.
Fair play to the Tories on at least trying to do something post Dilnot on care fees - ok it's got holes in the plans but it's something rather than the long grass that successive Govts have done with the issue....
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
Plus being able to keep £100k untouched for social care costs will still be higher than the present limit of £23k
I'm at work so can't really look at the manifesto in detail. Are the left wing policies actually left wing or are they skin deep policies designed to sound left while not achieving very much?
I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.
You won! Suck it up...
Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
Maybe not in Londres...the rest of the country seem delighted about it for better or worse. Or resigned to making the best of it.
Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.
Interesting times ....
What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
Well they are a silly bunch at the best of times. It seems fairly obvious to me that May is attempting to broaden Conservative appeal, with something for the Kippers and something for the centre-left. I see no harm in her doing that if she can pull it off.
I will tolerate May's shift to the Left if she succeeds in thrashing Corbyn's Labour. But if she pulls off an underwhelming victory, barely increasing her majority to 40 or 50, say, then she will have failed, quite epically.
I don't think moderate Labour MPs will stick with Corbyn even if May only secures a 60-80 majority (which would be a failure for the Tories against a leader as bad as Corbyn). What has happened in Scotland with Labour councillors prepared to walk away from the party and become independents ignoring the dictats of their leader will also happen in Westminster after Labour loses. If Corbyn refuses to budge, there will be a split, and a centre left group will emerge and marginalize what remains of Labour, and the new group will not be controlled by Unite, which will be all the better for our democracy. There is a political vacuum on the centre left, May has correctly seen this and firmly parked her tanks on it, but she will face competition when Labour split which is inevitable. But in the end if Brexit isn't a complete disaster the Tories are in for the next ten years at least, and the far left wings of labour will have been destroyed hopefully forever
Ok, I'm putting this out now. I predict the social care changes will either be a) a f***** disaster for the Tories when the full extend of what's proposes dawns on people or b) will not survive contact with backbenchers as a Bill.
The main reason being they have abandoned the total lifetime cap on charges.
So:
* If you are lucky and don't need social care - your kids win up to a £1m house - tax free.
* If you are unlucky and need several years of care at maybe £1000 a week. Your kids get zilch.
This is poll tax on zimmer frame wheels level of policy.
Nothing stands out (for example, the incredibly bouncy London sub sample has the Tories marginally ahead - which is probably unlikely) and SLAB on 20 in Scotland (Con: 28, SNP: 43, all of which seem 'reasonable'...)
How gutted will Corbyn feel if he polls 34% and then remembers Cameron got a majority on 36/37%.
Edit and Blair did too on 35% in 2005.
Blair got 36% in GB in 2005 - but it will be rather striking if Corbyn gets close to that figure or the 35.2% polled by Kinnock in 1992!
Though 45% for May would be the highest for any Tory leader since Heath in 1970, indeed you could argue May is basically pushing a Heathite manifesto on economics combined with a Powellite platform on Europe and immigration
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
People don't pay attention to politics like we do, and this is their first proper look at Farron.
They've concluded he's a God botherer who doesn't believe in democracy.
That's not popular in this country.
I think it's more that Farron's been ignored. The polls are showing that around 50% of people have no opinion on him whatsoever. Previous LD leaders all benefitted from vastly increased media exposure at election time - Farron hasn't to anything like the same degree.
The Leaders Debate tonight might be an opportunity to cut through - he's probably the most unknown quantity on the panel (barring the Labour/Tory spin doctors).
Grauniad take on Mayism - conclusion of manifesto:
Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.
True Conservatism means a commitment to country and community; a belief not just in society but in the good that government can do; a respect for the local and national institutions that bind us together; an insight that change is inevitable and change can be good, but that change should be shaped, through strong leadership and clear principles, for the common good.
We know that our responsibility to one another is greater than the rights we hold as individuals. We know that we all have obligations to one another, because that is what community and nation demands. We understand that nobody, however powerful, has succeeded alone and that we all therefore have a debt to others. We respect the fact that society is a contract between the generations: a partnership between those who are living, those who have lived before us, and those who are yet to be born.
Fair play to the Tories on at least trying to do something post Dilnot on care fees - ok it's got holes in the plans but it's something rather than the long grass that successive Govts have done with the issue....
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
Aye.
I wish she'd do something on free NHS prescriptions too.
Is a farce that my father and I get free prescriptions when someone on minimum wage has to pay for theirs
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
Now they're REALLY worried.
If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
Those who know her know she LOVES door-knocking on the campaign trail.
And when I have gone around Kirkby Lonsdale with her TWICE I found her better at it than anyone I have taken around, before or since.
Transparent attempt to win the mayoralty off a split 'progressive' vote I guess.
But they want to change the way the other new Mayoral elections are held aswell. Which is odd since they just won the tees valley and west midlands mayors on second prefrence.
Ms. Apocalypse, I quite like most of what I've heard from the Pirates, but cutting copyright to 10 years is not good for writers.
It's a rare book that is still earning decent royalties after 10 years...
Certainly an example of a 'rare book' but I imagine that George R R Martin has probably made more royalties from Game of Thrones more than ten years after it was published than in the first ten years. I read the book not long after it was first published but it wouldn't surprise me if more books were sold after the TV series than before it.
Though if copyright expired after 10 years would that extend to not just royalties for the book but also anything that spins off from the books? Could HBO have made their series without paying George R R Martin for it because it was out of copyright?
Stephen BushVerified account @stephenkb 1h1 hour ago More Neat use of advertising 3: Labour have paid for an attack ad at the top of Google when you search for the Tory or LD manifestos.
@BizPears: "A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite
No it wasn't. Ask the Leavers on here. None of them gave a stuff about immigration. Apart from you.
You are using that narrative because it is why *you* voted. Plenty of others also, I'm sure. But if Tezza decides (she hasn't) that she wants FOM then that will perfectly satisfy the instruction to Leave the EU.
The leavers on here who gave a stuff about immigration are almost all banned.
I am not using that narrative because it's why "I" voted. My job is unaffected by EU immigration. If you think Leave didn't win because of immigration that's down to you, but I think you are wrong.
No - it was to show the illogicality of your statement: "The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs."
While that was certainly a factor for plenty of people, it was by no means the only or main or pertinent point but you are framing the whole debate about Brexit over immigration.
"A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite"
I replied
"That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question"
So your nitpicking should be applied to the post that I replied to, as that was the one that claimed "a referendum that was won by promising..." to look at where people came from. I disagree, and the point I made was that it was won by people who said they would look at where people are going to,
I am accepting the premise of the post I replied to, that immigration won the referendum, not "framing the whole debate about Brexit over immigration"
I'm at work so can't really look at the manifesto in detail. Are the left wing policies actually left wing or are they skin deep policies designed to sound left while not achieving very much?
Reducing greatly the amount people leave as an inheritance is definently left wing. Many more people will now have to pay social care charges.
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
Now they're REALLY worried.
If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
Those who know her know she LOVES door-knocking on the campaign trail.
Really? She isn't coming across that way
There's a difference between door-knocking in your constitutency on a quiet Saturday morning and 'meeting voters' in a media scrum during an election campaign.
Fair play to the Tories on at least trying to do something post Dilnot on care fees - ok it's got holes in the plans but it's something rather than the long grass that successive Govts have done with the issue....
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
See my last post. It is being tackled by making brute bad luck the decider on whether you get to use your IHT allowance or not. Disaster awaits on this one.
Transparent attempt to win the mayoralty off a split 'progressive' vote I guess.
But they want to change the way the other new Mayoral elections are held aswell. Which is odd since they just won the tees valley and west midlands mayors on second prefrence.
They won both on first preference too. Tees Valley second round increased their first preference lead, West Midlands second round reduced it so I don't see a partisan impact overall.
Seems like the Conservative party has become a latter day Owenite SDP lite party.
Interesting times ....
What's particularly amusing is the contrast with the attacks from the LibDems, Labour and SNP, who have all been claiming that Theresa May is taking the Conservative Party hard to the right.
Well they are a silly bunch at the best of times. It seems fairly obvious to me that May is attempting to broaden Conservative appeal, with something for the Kippers and something for the centre-left. I see no harm in her doing that if she can pull it off.
I will tolerate May's shift to the Left if she succeeds in thrashing Corbyn's Labour. But if she pulls off an underwhelming victory, barely increasing her majority to 40 or 50, say, then she will have failed, quite epically.
I don't think moderate Labour MPs will stick with Corbyn even if May only secures a 60-80 majority (which would be a failure for the Tories against a leader as bad as Corbyn). What has happened in Scotland with Labour councillors prepared to walk away from the party and become independents ignoring the dictats of their leader will also happen in Westminster after Labour loses. If Corbyn refuses to budge, there will be a split, and a centre left group will emerge and marginalize what remains of Labour, and the new group will not be controlled by Unite, which will be all the better for our democracy. There is a political vacuum on the centre left, May has correctly seen this and firmly parked her tanks on it, but she will face competition when Labour split which is inevitable. But in the end if Brexit isn't a complete disaster the Tories are in for the next ten years at least, and the far left wings of labour will have been destroyed hopefully forever
The woeful showing of the LibDems should give heart to this new centre-left grouping forming out of the ashes of Labour. There's a need for a party that neither Labour nor the LibDems is currently fulfilling.
Can someone really clever explain what is happening to the Lib Dems? Suddenly all their voters are flocking to Corbyn??
Is this the last, desperate Remainers thinking: ooh, Labour are saying we won't leave the EU without a good deal? A possible chance to Stay?
(I thought this was a very clever move by Labour, incidentally - almost unnoticed by the press)
Or is this the lefty LDs liking lots of Labour's manifesto?
It's labour dominating the headlines for the last few days, and lib dems barely getting a look in.
Yes, a Party Conference Effect, certainly some of that.
But the Tories need to destroy Labour, not just beat them, so we can get a sensible Opposition. Otherwise there is a real risk a Corbyn-esque, Chavezite, hard Left Labour will sneak a win in 2022.
Are PB Tories panicking already? Not to worry guys; 70/80+ seat majority nailed on.
Now they're REALLY worried.
If May doesn't get a large majority, then she only has herself to blame. She really looks like she hates campaigning, which given the fact that she's a politician is problematic.
Those who know her know she LOVES door-knocking on the campaign trail.
Really? She isn't coming across that way
she doesn't like people questioning her, thats all.....
The Greens’ co-leader, Caroline Lucas, has released a statement calling the Conservatives’ plans on social care a “dementia tax”, calling the manifesto “deeply misguided.” She said:
The social care changes will hit those in need worst, shifting the cost burden onto individuals and further undermining the welfare state. The lockdown on migration isn’t just economically illiterate and bad for business, it’s cruel too.
Fair play to the Tories on at least trying to do something post Dilnot on care fees - ok it's got holes in the plans but it's something rather than the long grass that successive Govts have done with the issue....
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
Yeah, I think on balance it's a pretty reasonable compromise. There are no good solutions, it's a question of balancing out overall affordability, the problem of penalising the responsible, and fairness. I think I prefer this package to the Dilnot package, which was going to cost too much and which would subsidise the very well-off too much.. The other approach, Andy Burnham's death tax where you paid £10K for your 'free' care whether you used it or not, spread the cost more evenly but was another subsidy for the children of the well-off.
Grauniad take on Mayism - conclusion of manifesto:
Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.
True Conservatism means a commitment to country and community; a belief not just in society but in the good that government can do; a respect for the local and national institutions that bind us together; an insight that change is inevitable and change can be good, but that change should be shaped, through strong leadership and clear principles, for the common good.
We know that our responsibility to one another is greater than the rights we hold as individuals. We know that we all have obligations to one another, because that is what community and nation demands. We understand that nobody, however powerful, has succeeded alone and that we all therefore have a debt to others. We respect the fact that society is a contract between the generations: a partnership between those who are living, those who have lived before us, and those who are yet to be born.
I'm at work so can't really look at the manifesto in detail. Are the left wing policies actually left wing or are they skin deep policies designed to sound left while not achieving very much?
Reducing greatly the amount people leave as an inheritance is definently left wing. Many more people will now have to pay social care charges.
How is it being reduced? I've missed that, all I've seen is a more than quadrupling from £23,000 to £100,000 that which can be passed on.
I am not the one who promised them sweeties before the vote, and now offers 5 years of gruel.
You won! Suck it up...
Do you a have an end date planned for cessation of whining about one side of the campaign ?
The mood of the effing nation appears to have changed not a jot since your wreckers conned people into leaving the single market. The idea that the nation now thinks Brexit is great is sheer mythology.
Maybe not in Londres...the rest of the country seem delighted about it for better or worse. Or resigned to making the best of it.
Erm....not in the Cotswolds. Sorry.
Don't apologise...I'm not euphoric about it. But most people are either pleased or accepting of it outside big cities.
I'm at work so can't really look at the manifesto in detail. Are the left wing policies actually left wing or are they skin deep policies designed to sound left while not achieving very much?
Reducing greatly the amount people leave as an inheritance is definently left wing. Many more people will now have to pay social care charges.
Yes but the Tories have also raised the Inheritance tax threshold which Labour would reverse and the first £100k of assets is immune from social care charges
Ok, I'm putting this out now. I predict the social care changes will either be a) a f***** disaster for the Tories when the full extend of what's proposes dawns on people or b) will not survive contact with backbenchers as a Bill.
The main reason being they have abandoned the total lifetime cap on charges.
So:
* If you are lucky and don't need social care - your kids win up to a £1m house - tax free.
* If you are unlucky and need several years of care at maybe £1000 a week. Your kids get zilch.
This is poll tax on zimmer frame wheels level of policy.
No as even if your parents need years of care you still get £100k tax free regardless
Stephen BushVerified account @stephenkb 1h1 hour ago More Neat use of advertising 3: Labour have paid for an attack ad at the top of Google when you search for the Tory or LD manifestos.
@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...
Not really. The thing to watch is the Labour score compared with the Corbyn score - the difference is people who are voting Labour but holding their noses, and thus potentially seduceable by Tory demonisation of Corbyn. The Tory lead is all about eating UKIP (are they really down to 2%?), and there's not a lot Labour under any leader can do about that.
What critics of Corbyn can argue is that under hypothetical wonder-leader from the centre, we would be gaining votes from the left of the Tories while they snuggle up to UKIP. Whether that's true to a large extent is debatable, cf. the poll two days ago showing Labour doing much worse if Tony Blair was leading. I think we're seeing some genuine polarisation here.
But he should not have agreed to the election ! At the very least Corbyn should have forced May down the Vote of No Confidence route which quite a few constitutional commentators believe could have made him PM in a 'caretaker' capacity.
Transparent attempt to win the mayoralty off a split 'progressive' vote I guess.
But they want to change the way the other new Mayoral elections are held aswell. Which is odd since they just won the tees valley and west midlands mayors on second prefrence.
I think it would look too obvious to just change London. And the London mayoralty is probably the most prestigious prize (although I think other Mayors actually have relatively more power than Khan).
Maybe I'm being too cynical - even under FPTP the Tories will struggle in London without a Boris, so perhaps the change is for another reason. Seems completely out of the blue either way.
Ok, I'm putting this out now. I predict the social care changes will either be a) a f***** disaster for the Tories when the full extend of what's proposes dawns on people or b) will not survive contact with backbenchers as a Bill.
The main reason being they have abandoned the total lifetime cap on charges.
So:
* If you are lucky and don't need social care - your kids win up to a £1m house - tax free.
* If you are unlucky and need several years of care at maybe £1000 a week. Your kids get zilch.
This is poll tax on zimmer frame wheels level of policy.
No as even if your parents need years of care you still get £100k tax free regardless
ok. fair point. my mistake. But still leaves the basic point. If you are lucky - good on you, the Tories will back you all the way.
Just a reminder to those thinking may might not achieve. Mori has them on 49. If they get 49 it will be a bloodbath.
The Mori poll was Baxtered here earlier. It produced a big majority but some way short of a 'bloodbath'.
Baxter, I suggest, or rather UNS us redundant when it comes to scores approaching 50%. I would be astonished if 49% didn't give a 160 plus majority
Baxter is a pretty crude tool at the best of times and useful principally for a quick and easy ballpark figure.
If you are going to figure on 49% you would have to allow 34% for Corbyn too. I think his supporters would take that if it were on offer now. It would keep their man in place, which seems to be their first priority.
The Greens’ co-leader, Caroline Lucas, has released a statement calling the Conservatives’ plans on social care a “dementia tax”, calling the manifesto “deeply misguided.” She said:
The social care changes will hit those in need worst, shifting the cost burden onto individuals and further undermining the welfare state. The lockdown on migration isn’t just economically illiterate and bad for business, it’s cruel too.
I haven't looked into the policy itself, but 'dementia tax' seems like good coinage by Lucas, could catch on and tar the proposals much like 'bedroom tax' or 'pasty tax' did.
@NickPalmer ""Corbyn would be a disaster as PM" meme is running out of steam."
There's a big head of steam in a 2:1 margin...
Not really. The thing to watch is the Labour score compared with the Corbyn score - the difference is people who are voting Labour but holding their noses, and thus potentially seduceable by Tory demonisation of Corbyn. The Tory lead is all about eating UKIP (are they really down to 2%?), and there's not a lot Labour under any leader can do about that.
What critics of Corbyn can argue is that under hypothetical wonder-leader from the centre, we would be gaining votes from the left of the Tories while they snuggle up to UKIP. Whether that's true to a large extent is debatable, cf. the poll two days ago showing Labour doing much worse if Tony Blair was leading. I think we're seeing some genuine polarisation here.
But he should not have agreed to the election ! At the very least Corbyn should have forced May down the Vote of No Confidence route which quite a few constitutional commentators believe could have made him PM in a 'caretaker' capacity.
It just wasn't credible. Before Corbyn even had a chance to reply the media had moved on to election mode. It is utterly delusional to think that he could play silly buggers and be made PM in any form of capacity.
She's scrapping Leveson 2 and repealing Article 40. Rupe will like that. As will all the other newspapers - it'll be interesting to see how the Guardian squares this.
Though if copyright expired after 10 years would that extend to not just royalties for the book but also anything that spins off from the books? Could HBO have made their series without paying George R R Martin for it because it was out of copyright?
If Martin denounced a spin-off as a travesty of his books that would hurt sales, but his endorsement on a spin-off would be worth a small fortune, so HBO would probably still end up paying him.
Are we going back to the 1950's with Lab and Con getting nearly 50% each?
If this poll is anywhere near the money it does seem, remarkably, as if we are back to two-party politics in the UK for the time being at least (Nationalists excepted obvs). It seems May has eliminated UKIP via confirming we will leave the EU and the Lib Dems seem to have eliminated themselves by campaigning a single issue - to oppose leaving the EU.
Grauniad take on Mayism - conclusion of manifesto:
Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.
True Conservatism means a commitment to country and community; a belief not just in society but in the good that government can do; a respect for the local and national institutions that bind us together; an insight that change is inevitable and change can be good, but that change should be shaped, through strong leadership and clear principles, for the common good.
We know that our responsibility to one another is greater than the rights we hold as individuals. We know that we all have obligations to one another, because that is what community and nation demands. We understand that nobody, however powerful, has succeeded alone and that we all therefore have a debt to others. We respect the fact that society is a contract between the generations: a partnership between those who are living, those who have lived before us, and those who are yet to be born.
I'm at work so can't really look at the manifesto in detail. Are the left wing policies actually left wing or are they skin deep policies designed to sound left while not achieving very much?
Reducing greatly the amount people leave as an inheritance is definently left wing. Many more people will now have to pay social care charges.
How is it being reduced? I've missed that, all I've seen is a more than quadrupling from £23,000 to £100,000 that which can be passed on.
More people will have to pay - in future includes those receiving care in their own home.
Ok, I'm putting this out now. I predict the social care changes will either be a) a f***** disaster for the Tories when the full extend of what's proposes dawns on people or b) will not survive contact with backbenchers as a Bill.
The main reason being they have abandoned the total lifetime cap on charges.
So:
* If you are lucky and don't need social care - your kids win up to a £1m house - tax free.
* If you are unlucky and need several years of care at maybe £1000 a week. Your kids get zilch.
This is poll tax on zimmer frame wheels level of policy.
No as even if your parents need years of care you still get £100k tax free regardless
ok. fair point. my mistake. But still leaves the basic point. If you are lucky - good on you, the Tories will back you all the way.
We have a welfare state which is aimed at providing care for those most in need or in danger of "falling through the cracks". Not to preserve hundreds of thousands of pounds for people's children.
Transparent attempt to win the mayoralty off a split 'progressive' vote I guess.
But they want to change the way the other new Mayoral elections are held aswell. Which is odd since they just won the tees valley and west midlands mayors on second prefrence.
I think it would look too obvious to just change London. And the London mayoralty is probably the most prestigious prize (although I think other Mayors actually have relatively more power than Khan).
Maybe I'm being too cynical - even under FPTP the Tories will struggle in London without a Boris, so perhaps the change is for another reason. Seems completely out of the blue either way.
I think it is a bit of cleaning house, just like the repeal of the FTPA. Trialing different electoral systems through the devolutions implemented in the late 90s onwards was done with an eye on ultimately changing Westminster. We had a vote eventually on voting systems and voted two-to-one to keep our existing system.
Time to end the trials of multiple competing voting systems and go for one consistent one that has stood the test of time. Time to stop talking about voting systems. FPTP works there is no need for anything else.
Comments
facilities for cyclists at railway stations."
huzzah!
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/04/10/all-time-high-snp/
This is all still largely 2015 Labour voters, though (that we're not even really bothering to go after people who voted for anyone else in 2015 probably tells its own story).
(after I said it less eloquently downthread ...)
*Cue the music*
Dedication....
Dedication....
Dedication....
That's what you need.
Because Conservatism is not and never has been the philosophy described by caricaturists. We do not believe in untrammelled free markets. We reject the cult of selfish individualism. We abhor social division, injustice, unfairness and inequality. We see rigid dogma and ideology not just as needless but dangerous.
True Conservatism means a commitment to country and community; a belief not just in society but in the good that government can do; a respect for the local and national institutions that bind us together; an insight that change is inevitable and change can be good, but that change should be shaped, through strong leadership and clear principles, for the common good.
We know that our responsibility to one another is greater than the rights we hold as individuals. We know that we all have obligations to one another, because that is what community and nation demands. We understand that nobody, however powerful, has succeeded alone and that we all therefore have a debt to others. We respect the fact that society is a contract between the generations: a partnership between those who are living, those who have lived before us, and those who are yet to be born.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2017/may/18/general-election-2017-theresa-may-conservative-manifesto-social-care-politics-live?CMP=twt_gu
We will continue with the current boundary review, enshrining the principle of equal seats, while reducing the number of MPs to 600
While that was certainly a factor for plenty of people, it was by no means the only or main or pertinent point but you are framing the whole debate about Brexit over immigration.
There's not any votes to be won really (and certainly some lost) but it's good this is finally being addressed.
(joke)
https://twitter.com/BBCPeterHunt/status/865178741177274369
The main reason being they have abandoned the total lifetime cap on charges.
So:
* If you are lucky and don't need social care - your kids win up to a £1m house - tax free.
* If you are unlucky and need several years of care at maybe £1000 a week. Your kids get zilch.
This is poll tax on zimmer frame wheels level of policy.
Go buy my books at once to make recompense for this slander!
I would be astonished if 49% didn't give a 160 plus majority
The Leaders Debate tonight might be an opportunity to cut through - he's probably the most unknown quantity on the panel (barring the Labour/Tory spin doctors).
I wish she'd do something on free NHS prescriptions too.
Is a farce that my father and I get free prescriptions when someone on minimum wage has to pay for theirs
Though if copyright expired after 10 years would that extend to not just royalties for the book but also anything that spins off from the books? Could HBO have made their series without paying George R R Martin for it because it was out of copyright?
More
Neat use of advertising 3: Labour have paid for an attack ad at the top of Google when you search for the Tory or LD manifestos.
https://twitter.com/notscientific/status/865155543069020160
TMICIPM (BAL)
Well nearly a Landslide
"A country that asks not where you've come from but where you are going to," says May, after a referendum that was won by promising opposite"
I replied
"That simply isn't true. The referendum was won because people were fed up of mass uncontrolled immigration into low wage jobs. If every immigrant was getting a highly paid skilled job there would have been no problem. Leave suggested the Australian Style points system, which IS asking "where are you going to?", the problem with uncontrolled mass immigration is no one asks that question"
So your nitpicking should be applied to the post that I replied to, as that was the one that claimed "a referendum that was won by promising..." to look at where people came from. I disagree, and the point I made was that it was won by people who said they would look at where people are going to,
I am accepting the premise of the post I replied to, that immigration won the referendum, not "framing the whole debate about Brexit over immigration"
The social care changes will hit those in need worst, shifting the cost burden onto individuals and further undermining the welfare state. The lockdown on migration isn’t just economically illiterate and bad for business, it’s cruel too.
So you'll be voting for her then?
Ugh. Counsel, not councel.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/865169927644340224
Maybe I'm being too cynical - even under FPTP the Tories will struggle in London without a Boris, so perhaps the change is for another reason. Seems completely out of the blue either way.
If you are going to figure on 49% you would have to allow 34% for Corbyn too. I think his supporters would take that if it were on offer now. It would keep their man in place, which seems to be their first priority.
Time to end the trials of multiple competing voting systems and go for one consistent one that has stood the test of time. Time to stop talking about voting systems. FPTP works there is no need for anything else.