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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Discussing today’s GfK / Busin

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran is joined by Adam Bienkov and Adam Payne from Business Insider UK to discuss today’s GfK/Business Insider poll results.
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https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/864946261962756100
1. The current support base for both Tories and Labour is comprised primarily (about 75%) of their 2015 voters. In the Tories' case their VI has shot up so much that this represents the large bulk of their support under Cameron; in Labour's case they've suffered significant attrition.
2. Tory support is skewed particularly towards pensioners, a large cohort who vote religiously. Labour support is skewed particularly towards 18-24 year olds, a small cohort at least half of whom would rather go down the pub or stay in bed.
3. Of the roughly 1 in 4 supporters of each party who did not vote for them in 2015, most of the additional Tory voters are Ukip defectors, who have a proven track record of voting. Most of the additional Labour voters are people who voted neither in the previous election nor in the EU referendum, and who therefore have a proven track record of not voting.
In addition:
4. ICM, who continue to report Labour consistently at under 30%, have effectively accused other companies of not weighting turnout properly. There is also good reason to suppose that at least some of the pollsters are also incorrectly weighting by 2015 turnout, and are under-counting the Lib Dems and over-counting Labour in their final figures.
5. We ought also to remember that there is a fairly consistent trend in the polls, as seen for example in 2015, of the companies under-reporting the Conservatives and over-reporting Labour - a stubborn problem that they seem to have trouble solving.
In short, Labour is bleeding its previous supporters and reliant on the young and previous non-voters - the most unreliable sections of the electorate - to plug the gaps. The Tories are holding on to their existing support and have very strong backing both from previous Ukip voters, and from the elderly - the section of the electorate most likely to vote. Whilst one cannot be 100% certain that the polls are skewed against rather than in favour of Labour, I'd say that another polling fail, with Labour falling short of expectations, is a possibility we should consider very seriously.
The big unknown is which game Theresa May is playing.
I suspect we won't be getting any public polls from them.
People might read too much into them.
Have Populus gone the way of Angus-Reid?
I believe they do the fieldwork for Crosby-Textor, who are the private pollsters for the Tories.
Again people might read too much into their polls.
PMILFstrategic genius - slaughtering UKIP from the right, and mopping up Labour (and the LDs for that matter) from the left.The election research I referenced down-thread was an analysis of the Lord Ashcroft data:
http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/864718635708944384
Imagine a country led by the Daily Mail, and you are not too far from the depressing truth.
Bad sleeps makes you look 'significantly' more ugly
Dark-circled "panda" eyes and puffy lids can even put others off socialising with you, they say.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-39933232
Can only assume that May won't let this drop in order to keep the Ukip defectors on board.
The Conservatives have for too long been the Party of BIG business-if May is tackling market abuse and dominance by the big companies with a corresponding boost for small companies then i would be very pleased to see that.
But i suspect i will be underwhelmed by what is actually on offer.
Bear in mind that UKIP base is not exactly economically to the right, nor is the shaky Labour voters who can't abide Corbyn but might just sit at home rather than shift. If May coaxes them out here, its big win territory.
What's wrong with panda gay sex?
FBI now leaking that there was unusual interference with the investigation into Trump campaign ties to Russian state and criminal entities.
Dog whistle politics is back!
A true market economy needs the state to deal with market abuse-Tories should be actively seeking the state to deal with these abuses.
SME's are the drivers of innovation job creation and growth-not big business.
Tories = One Nation Heath?
Tories = Blue Labour?
ALL ground is being covered! What a brilliant strategy lol!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-39940006
Does next to nothing to encourage innovation
and nothing to encourage new entrants.
As i said-i expect to be underwhelmed.
https://twitter.com/vote_leave/status/733018241484922880
But, I shall wait and see.
And what will come after.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-trip-idUSKCN18D0C7
National Security Council officials have strategically included Trump's name in "as many paragraphs as we can because he keeps reading if he's mentioned," according to one source, who relayed conversations he had with NSC officials....
I won't burden this thread by reposing my summaries of each section of the manifesto from the last thread.
I don't remember that.
But May didn't write this on her own-Timothy was no doubt heavily involved and that is not a good thing- but others must have done as well.
I actually agree with the idea that that the wealthier middle classes need to pay more for their care-BUT will they get value for money or is it (more likely) just a way of subsidising others??
Post-war consensus politics of the 50s/early 60s around a mixed economy, one nation and state intervention.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-war_consensus
Um, thanks everyone
Yep, was rooting for Wednesday. Bad luck fella. Huddersfield cheated earlier in the season by playing a weakened team against Brum that probably sent Blackburn down, or could have relegated Forest. Not good to see them progress.
But, the Party will want her gone very soon after GE2022 if this is her philosophical approach.
On one thing I agree: the tide of public opinion on immigration must be turned and, even if that involves tough measures now to bring the numbers down, it will be better for a healthier public dialogue on how to manage and control it in the medium-long term.
People must feel they can pull the levers.
Well worth catching.
I know, just making chitchat.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/05/may-intends-appoint-liam-fox-chancellor/