I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
Black_Rook wasn't talking about the New Labour (War Criminal) Party.
I would expect those figures to produce a rather bigger majority than 66. The implied 3.2% swing would result in 26 Labour losses - taking them down to 206. In addition the Tories will gain Clacton plus a few from the SNP - and perhaps the LibDems. That should produce a majority not far off 80. Labour could hope to claw a few seats back from the SNP to give them circa 210. The only qualification I am inclined to make is that when the underlying swing is modest , new MPs elected in 2015 could expect a first time incumbency bonus - as did the the Tories in marginal seats at the last election. I believe that 12 out of Labour's 15 most marginal seats fall into this category - so it is entirely possible - indeed likely - that a good few would resist the pro- Tory swing.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Let's not forget that there is a very large proportion of this nation that is left wing and who would never under any circumstances vote Tory. Equally there is a very large proportion of this nation that is right wing and who would never under any circumstances vote Labour.
If a decent alternative existed then there is no guarantee of a floor to Labour. The SDP nearly achieved crossover with Labour and had Benn rather than Kinnock taken over in 83 I suspect they would have done. The SNP did achieve crossover and once that was done the floor was discovered to be subterranean.
The problem in this election is that as patently unsuitable Corbyn is, who else is there for a left-winger to vote for? Farron is acting like a petulant child promising to hold his breath until we get another Brexit vote. Nuttall is not taken seriously and they're not even trying. Lucas is scarcely more credible than Corbyn and her party certainly isn't.
So there is no repository to go too. May as well hold your nose and go for Labour and hope a latter day Kinnock arises to kick out the far left after the election.
If the Lib Dems were like their 2010 incarnation then we could see crossover now and Labour fall well below 30% but there is no alternative.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
He probably would.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
He probably would.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
Up and down like a yo-yo.
The 20% lead released yesterday is a bit old - and from a poll conducted over 12 days.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
To arrive at a like for like comparison the post 2015 adjustments would need to be removed - ie a 30% Labour share in 2017 would have been circa 32% on the basis of 2015 methodologies.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
He probably would.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
Up and down like a yo-yo.
He wouldn't. Polls show that Blair is even more unpopular than Corbyn.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
He probably would.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
Up and down like a yo-yo.
I think you've added in an extra 20 - there have only been two polls with leads of 20 - ICM and GfK.
I was about to say that we're getting so many of these polls with Labour trending upwards that I'm starting to wonder if I'm reading this entire election all wrong - until I reminded myself that the pollsters are starting to diverge; we don't know, of course, which of them is right (or, at any rate, least wrong); and the reasons to suppose that Labour won't do as well as is being suggested are just as good now as they were 24 hours ago. All in all, it's a mystery worthy of Toyah.
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
Not true. Tony Blair would not get 30%
He probably would.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
Up and down like a yo-yo.
He wouldn't. Polls show that Blair is even more unpopular than Corbyn.
You're comparing apples with cider.
Corbyn is leader of the party today with all the prestige and hate that comes with it. Blair is history with all that comes with that. People who are partisans of every single colour can hate on Blair without it affecting anything but all the reasons people hold their nose and vote for Corbyn would still exist with Blair if he was magically party leader again. But since he isn't people have no need to hold their nose with him.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
LOL @ Margaret reference.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
LOL @ Margaret reference.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
LOL @ Margaret reference.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
LOL @ Margaret reference.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
33.24 also in April. There was 32.91 in March.
A very narrow band.
From memory the daily but never changing and completely incorrect YouGov had much to blame for that.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Dave never got 52% during an election campaign
What was EICIPM highest ELBOW in 2015
34.25% in April 2015
LOL @ Margaret reference.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
33.24 also in April. There was 32.91 in March.
A very narrow band.
From memory the daily but never changing and completely incorrect YouGov had much to blame for that.
I think Sunil did a non-YouGov version too, but I could be mistaken. The polls were pretty static for all of 2015.
Comments
One thing is clear: *IF* Labour comes out of this election with at, or very close to, 30% of the vote then we will know its absolute floor for future reference. If somebody as transparently unfit for office as Corbyn (to say nothing of the utterly repulsive McDonnell) can get that close to power then it will demonstrate that Labour could do similarly well under quite literally anybody. Nearly a third of the country would back a future reincarnation of Pol Pot or the Emperor Nero quite willingly, just so long as he wore a red rosette. It's quite enough to make one wonder if democracy has a long-term future.
The only qualification I am inclined to make is that when the underlying swing is modest , new MPs elected in 2015 could expect a first time incumbency bonus - as did the the Tories in marginal seats at the last election. I believe that 12 out of Labour's 15 most marginal seats fall into this category - so it is entirely possible - indeed likely - that a good few would resist the pro- Tory swing.
If a decent alternative existed then there is no guarantee of a floor to Labour. The SDP nearly achieved crossover with Labour and had Benn rather than Kinnock taken over in 83 I suspect they would have done. The SNP did achieve crossover and once that was done the floor was discovered to be subterranean.
The problem in this election is that as patently unsuitable Corbyn is, who else is there for a left-winger to vote for? Farron is acting like a petulant child promising to hold his breath until we get another Brexit vote. Nuttall is not taken seriously and they're not even trying. Lucas is scarcely more credible than Corbyn and her party certainly isn't.
So there is no repository to go too. May as well hold your nose and go for Labour and hope a latter day Kinnock arises to kick out the far left after the election.
If the Lib Dems were like their 2010 incarnation then we could see crossover now and Labour fall well below 30% but there is no alternative.
And now, more numbers...
Conservative leads over the past week: 14, 15, 18, 18, 18, 20, 20, 14, 18, 20, 13
Up and down like a yo-yo.
So Jezza is still 3% below peak EICIPM
Corbyn is leader of the party today with all the prestige and hate that comes with it. Blair is history with all that comes with that. People who are partisans of every single colour can hate on Blair without it affecting anything but all the reasons people hold their nose and vote for Corbyn would still exist with Blair if he was magically party leader again. But since he isn't people have no need to hold their nose with him.
What was EICIPM lowest ELBOW during the official campaign in 2015?
Short term good move as it takes some of the heat off.
Longer term problematic as these things tend to go down all sorts of rabbit holes and take forever.
It's not a particularly efficient or effective method of investigation but politically valid.