So, sod off Aussies, Kiwis, Canadians with your shared language, norms, beliefs and values and your Commonwealth ties, meanwhile let's have another two years of unfettered, low-skilled immigration from Romania and beyond.
Pedantic point: where in the EU is beyond Romania? Don't let facts get in the way of an anti-European rant.
France (New Caledonia and French Polynesia)?
Nicosia 3223km, Bucharest 2093 km
Don't let facts get in the way of ignorance
The Canary Islands are even further away but that's not the point.
No they are not. 2917 km.
You point is that you tried to make a fool out of someone else, but shot yourself in the foot.
Typical tory response to possible weakness in their campaigning today is on the bbc website "Tories pledge further immigration curbs". They obviously feel safer with Bluekip line of "blame it on "johnny foreignor" and keep them out! Appealing to the lowest common denominator perhaps? When are they going to be taken to task on education and the NHS?
Kle4, great post, I agree with you, but I think you have put it much better than I could.
You are very kind.
Well, I shall not top that, and I have a Tory manifesto to read tomorrow to bore people with inane comments on, so a good night to all.
In fact, it's not even £1,000 per year, it's £1,000 for employing the migrant and then £1,000 every time their visa is renewed - and some visas last 5+ years.
A ridiculous policy that will raise the cube root of fuck all and make us look like an anti-business, illiberal, reactionary bunch of fucking twerps.
Typical tory response to possible weakness in their campaigning today is on the bbc website "Tories pledge further immigration curbs". They obviously feel safer with Bluekip line of "blame it on "johnny foreignor" and keep them out! Appealing to the lowest common denominator perhaps? When are they going to be taken to task on education and the NHS?
Kle4, great post, I agree with you, but I think you have put it much better than I could.
You are very kind.
Well, I shall not top that, and I have a Tory manifesto to read tomorrow to bore people with inane comments on, so a good night to all.
I think that she is Jezza like, and will need to be prised from post.
The rebels will come from the right. They always do.
Happy to offer you £20 at evens that May is gone by the Party Conference of 2020
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM if she is i owe you if she isnt you owe me?
Do people with Type 1 diabetes just crumble when they enter their 60s then?
No but my wife is a Diabetes specialist ( and i do occasionally listen to what she says ) and also based on what May herself says, working into her mid /late 60's would be especially difficult for her. And based on other conversations i have had i am reasonably confident of my prediction that by around 2019 she will be heading for the exit.
No, she will probably go onto 2025, the year before she turns 70
@KatyTurNBC: McCarthy says Putin pays Trump, Ryan silences him and swears those present to secrecy. And this is ON TAPE says WAPO
If they said it, it must be true!
Tangential to assuming if someone, even an important someone, said something it must be true, always puts me in the mind of the following old joke:
Person A: I heard [scandalous story]. Person B: Well you can't believe everything you hear. Person A: I heard it from a source I trust. Person B: Yes, but I'm hearing it from you.
So, sod off Aussies, Kiwis, Canadians with your shared language, norms, beliefs and values and your Commonwealth ties, meanwhile let's have another two years of unfettered, low-skilled immigration from Romania and beyond.
Pedantic point: where in the EU is beyond Romania? Don't let facts get in the way of an anti-European rant.
France (New Caledonia and French Polynesia)?
Nicosia 3223km, Bucharest 2093 km
Don't let facts get in the way of ignorance
The Canary Islands are even further away but that's not the point.
As I recall, the Canaries are Spanish but not in the EU.
I work with some Romanians. Lovely people btw.
The Canaries are an integral part of Spain, like Ceuta and Melilla.
I think that she is Jezza like, and will need to be prised from post.
The rebels will come from the right. They always do.
Happy to offer you £20 at evens that May is gone by the Party Conference of 2020
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM if she is i owe you if she isnt you owe me?
But happy for you to modify the wording
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM if she is i owe you if she isnt you owe me?
People will think losing Winter Fuel is peanuts if it enables a real material change to how much they have to fund social care.
Moving cap from £23k to £100k is very big difference - bound to be very popular.
Winter Fuel Payments and free TV licences for millionaires is daft.
I recall working on some DWP funded research back in 2014 and having reasonably well off old folk asking me why they were being given these things for nothing when the country was supposedly short of money.
So are free bus passes for millionaires
But winter fuel is being cut for all nut the poorest pensioners. Those on guaranteed pension credit isn't it?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM if she is i owe you if she isnt you owe me?
Do people with Type 1 diabetes just crumble when they enter their 60s then?
No but my wife is a Diabetes specialist ( and i do occasionally listen to what she says ) and also based on what May herself says, working into her mid /late 60's would be especially difficult for her. And based on other conversations i have had i am reasonably confident of my prediction that by around 2019 she will be heading for the exit.
No, she will probably go onto 2025, the year before she turns 70
Disagree Happy to offer you the same bet as Fox ??
People will think losing Winter Fuel is peanuts if it enables a real material change to how much they have to fund social care.
Moving cap from £23k to £100k is very big difference - bound to be very popular.
Winter Fuel Payments and free TV licences for millionaires is daft.
I recall working on some DWP funded research back in 2014 and having reasonably well off old folk asking me why they were being given these things for nothing when the country was supposedly short of money.
So are free bus passes for millionaires
But tax cuts for millionaires whilst taking stuff off not very rich pensioners is Tory logic.
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM if she is i owe you if she isnt you owe me?
But happy for you to modify the wording
It is an interesting bet, but a bit longterm for me, so no thanks.
I do think managing Type 1 DM as PM will be a challenge.
Something that puzzles me is the Lib Dems being overwhelming favourites to win Cambridge. Surely that's one place that Corbyn might have some appeal. Also Labour made gains in there in the city council elections last year. Yet Labour are 3/1 to retain the seat.
May has decided to well and truly test the support of the old: reports suggest that the pension Triple Lock is going
OK so their may be one good policy in the manifesto.
I'll be interested to see what the replacement is. A double lock has been mooted in some quarters, i.e. with the 2.5% floor removed.
Taken with the winter fuel and care provision changes, this amounts to a much bigger assault on expensive pensioner benefits than I was anticipating. It's effectively an attempt to tackle the thorny issue of inter-generational equity from the party that most observers would previously have thought the least inclined to do so. And the opposition parties will scream about it.
As I said before, we are about to find out how solid the Tories' support amongst the over 65s really is...
Do people with Type 1 diabetes just crumble when they enter their 60s then?
No but my wife is a Diabetes specialist ( and i do occasionally listen to what she says ) and also based on what May herself says, working into her mid /late 60's would be especially difficult for her. And based on other conversations i have had i am reasonably confident of my prediction that by around 2019 she will be heading for the exit.
No, she will probably go onto 2025, the year before she turns 70
Disagree Happy to offer you the same bet as Fox ??
I rarely bet but am happy to agree a small wager on that yes, if she gets a 100+ majority this year she will probably be re elected in 2022 and then step down halfway through the next parliament before she hits 70
Mail spinning it all very positively for May - main headline:
"You won't have to sell home to pay for your care"
And that Winter Fuel cut is to fund the above.
Other papers going with same narrative - it's as if May has written the headlines herself.
What should be interesting is that given Labour are promising a spending splurge, and the LDs a more modest splurge, the Tory manifesto will surely contain more obvious 'negative' promises of cuts and the like. People claim they want honesty, but I've always doubted that when it comes to promising a land of free bread and subsidised honey for all, and with the Tories likely to win anyway I wonder how bold May will be in being realistic and even harsh if needed.
On evidence to date, not very bold, except when parking tanks on opposing lawns, but we shall see.
Sounds like the Tory one is moving the money around. So net zero impact in terms of spending. Telegraph are reporting deficit elimination by middle of 2020s, which would mean we'd have been in deficit for 17 years. Really hope that is managing expectations.
17 years? The UK has been running a Budget Deficit since the late 1980s when Lawson was Chancellor.
Mail spinning it all very positively for May - main headline:
"You won't have to sell home to pay for your care"
And that Winter Fuel cut is to fund the above.
Other papers going with same narrative - it's as if May has written the headlines herself.
What should be interesting is that given Labour are promising a spending splurge, and the LDs a more modest splurge, the Tory manifesto will surely contain more obvious 'negative' promises of cuts and the like. People claim they want honesty, but I've always doubted that when it comes to promising a land of free bread and subsidised honey for all, and with the Tories likely to win anyway I wonder how bold May will be in being realistic and even harsh if needed.
On evidence to date, not very bold, except when parking tanks on opposing lawns, but we shall see.
Sounds like the Tory one is moving the money around. So net zero impact in terms of spending. Telegraph are reporting deficit elimination by middle of 2020s, which would mean we'd have been in deficit for 17 years. Really hope that is managing expectations.
17 years? The UK has been running a Budget Deficit since the late 1980s when Lawson was Chancellor.
We had a surplus in the early Blair government, didn't we? Good point though, 17 years since the crash is a better way of putting it.
Something that puzzles me is the Lib Dems being overwhelming favourites to win Cambridge. Surely that's one place that Corbyn might have some appeal. Also Labour made gains in there in the city council elections last year. Yet Labour are 3/1 to retain the seat.
Cambridge is ultra-Remain territory, largely (though not exclusively) wealthy, and there's more to the place than students. It also still has a significant Tory vote, which is too far behind the leading parties to give the Conservatives a chance of winning this time, but which would make this an easy win for Dr Huppert if some of that vote backs him to be rid of the Labourite. Personally, I'd be very surprised if it didn't go back to the Lib Dems.
"So pleased to receive a letter from the Prime Minister today asking me to vote for her candidate, Stephen Crabb."
She is the Labour candidate standing against Crabb.
Its Phillipa Thompson. Not sure what you were thinking of when you said Pippa!
She used to go by Pippa Hadley.
Yes, you knew her a long time before me. I have only been acquainted with her since 2015 and have known her as Philippa. Thought you were confusing her with s more famous Pippa. Anyway, Philippa's working hard down here although clearly she has an uphill task against a weakened Tory.
People will think losing Winter Fuel is peanuts if it enables a real material change to how much they have to fund social care.
Moving cap from £23k to £100k is very big difference - bound to be very popular.
Winter Fuel Payments and free TV licences for millionaires is daft.
I recall working on some DWP funded research back in 2014 and having reasonably well off old folk asking me why they were being given these things for nothing when the country was supposedly short of money.
So are free bus passes for millionaires
But winter fuel is being cut for all nut the poorest pensioners. Those on guaranteed pension credit isn't it?
As pensioners my wife and I agree we do not need the winter fuel allowance and support it contributing to care
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
May has decided to well and truly test the support of the old: reports suggest that the pension Triple Lock is going
OK so their may be one good policy in the manifesto.
I'll be interested to see what the replacement is. A double lock has been mooted in some quarters, i.e. with the 2.5% floor removed.
Taken with the winter fuel and care provision changes, this amounts to a much bigger assault on expensive pensioner benefits than I was anticipating. It's effectively an attempt to tackle the thorny issue of inter-generational equity from the party that most observers would previously have thought the least inclined to do so. And the opposition parties will scream about it.
As I said before, we are about to find out how solid the Tories' support amongst the over 65s really is...
I would suggest: 1) An annual increases in the pension of the Average if increase prices and increase in wages, maybe with a proviso that it will never be negative. 2) a one off elimination of all the extra benefits, free TV licence, bus pass, winter fuel, Christmas bones etc, and give the same amount in the pension + the any savings in administitve costs. 3) a formula to raise the pension age, probably by 2 mouths every year, to match increases in life expectancy.
how well this would go down with pensioners I don't know, some may like the flexibility of extra cash that abolishing all the other bits gives them. But I'm not shore.
People will think losing Winter Fuel is peanuts if it enables a real material change to how much they have to fund social care.
Moving cap from £23k to £100k is very big difference - bound to be very popular.
Winter Fuel Payments and free TV licences for millionaires is daft.
I recall working on some DWP funded research back in 2014 and having reasonably well off old folk asking me why they were being given these things for nothing when the country was supposedly short of money.
So are free bus passes for millionaires
But winter fuel is being cut for all nut the poorest pensioners. Those on guaranteed pension credit isn't it?
As pensioners my wife and I agree we do not need the winter fuel allowance and support it contributing to care
What else are you prepared to do without, for the good of country naturally and not at all at the thin end of the Tory wedge.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
@ianssmart: 1/3 My @kezdugdale problem? She explains her pre aged 23 lack of "history" as uninterest in politics but 2 yrs before was a SNP volunteer.
@ianssmart: 2/3 A very junior Nat then leaks her volunteering. We make it a process story and the Nats themself desperately close it down.
@ianssmart: 3/3 Why would the SNP leadership want to close down a story that the Scottish Labour leader once volunteered to help them? Unless.....
@ianssmart: Does the volunteer really think she'll can spend tomorrow expelling Labour Councillors who were members while she was in the SNP? #goodluck
Something that puzzles me is the Lib Dems being overwhelming favourites to win Cambridge. Surely that's one place that Corbyn might have some appeal. Also Labour made gains in there in the city council elections last year. Yet Labour are 3/1 to retain the seat.
Cambridge is ultra-Remain territory, largely (though not exclusively) wealthy, and there's more to the place than students. It also still has a significant Tory vote, which is too far behind the leading parties to give the Conservatives a chance of winning this time, but which would make this an easy win for Dr Huppert if some of that vote backs him to be rid of the Labourite. Personally, I'd be very surprised if it didn't go back to the Lib Dems.
I expect Labour to hold Cambridge. The MP will have first term incumbency and the Tories will be less inclined to vote tactically in a seat they normally held until 1992. Added to that is the very weak LibDem national performance.Yet again too many commentators are too obsessed with the Leave/Remain breakdown when Brexit is likely to be less salient than they care to believe.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
Eeek....
Hmmm... Polls seem to be getting a bit more volatile. Of the last four surveys, we had that big 33% from Panelbase but the others were all just under 30%. Still nothing yet from YouGov on Twitter...
People will think losing Winter Fuel is peanuts if it enables a real material change to how much they have to fund social care.
Moving cap from £23k to £100k is very big difference - bound to be very popular.
Winter Fuel Payments and free TV licences for millionaires is daft.
I recall working on some DWP funded research back in 2014 and having reasonably well off old folk asking me why they were being given these things for nothing when the country was supposedly short of money.
So are free bus passes for millionaires
But winter fuel is being cut for all nut the poorest pensioners. Those on guaranteed pension credit isn't it?
As pensioners my wife and I agree we do not need the winter fuel allowance and support it contributing to care
What else are you prepared to do without, for the good of country naturally and not at all at the thin end of the Tory wedge.
The abolition of winter fuel allowance in return for a £100,000 allowance if it is needed is a fair pollicy
@ianssmart: 1/3 My @kezdugdale problem? She explains her pre aged 23 lack of "history" as uninterest in politics but 2 yrs before was a SNP volunteer.
@ianssmart: 2/3 A very junior Nat then leaks her volunteering. We make it a process story and the Nats themself desperately close it down.
@ianssmart: 3/3 Why would the SNP leadership want to close down a story that the Scottish Labour leader once volunteered to help them? Unless.....
@ianssmart: Does the volunteer really think she'll can spend tomorrow expelling Labour Councillors who were members while she was in the SNP? #goodluck
So, sod off Aussies, Kiwis, Canadians with your shared language, norms, beliefs and values and your Commonwealth ties, meanwhile let's have another two years of unfettered, low-skilled immigration from Romania and beyond.
Pedantic point: where in the EU is beyond Romania? Don't let facts get in the way of an anti-European rant.
France (New Caledonia and French Polynesia)?
Nicosia 3223km, Bucharest 2093 km
Don't let facts get in the way of ignorance
The Canary Islands are even further away but that's not the point.
As I recall, the Canaries are Spanish but not in the EU.
I work with some Romanians. Lovely people btw.
The Canaries are an integral part of Spain, like Ceuta and Melilla.
They're outside the EU VAT area if I recall correctly, which presumably means they're outside the customs union too. in all other respects they're part of the EU I believe.
May is a (nanny) Statist Tory. She genuinely believes that the State is likely to be a part of the solution rather than a part of the problem. It's Tory Jim, but not as we know it.
The state is part of the solution because the only way you will break up the dominant market players is through Govt action.
A true market economy needs the state to deal with market abuse-Tories should be actively seeking the state to deal with these abuses.
SME's are the drivers of innovation job creation and growth-not big business.
There is a role for the State in setting the rules and the dimensions of the playing field. But she wants to go a lot further than that. I think she is suspicious of freedom and cautious about innovation. Things can always be worse.
May is a dullard, pure and simple. She wants a Britain cloyed by mediocrity, piousness and conformity. She is a curtain-twitching meddler with no time for creativity, metropolitan attitudes or unorthodox lives.
Mediocrity, piousness and conformity is very popular amongst a certain section of the population. It won a Civil war and will win an election.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
Eeek....
Last YouGov/Times they were on 30%.
Most recent YouGov was a 31% (presumably for Sunday Times,) which they've given Labour twice during the campaign so far. Suggests they could now be at 32% or better.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
Eeek....
Last YouGov/Times they were on 30%.
Most recent YouGov was a 31% (presumably for Sunday Times,) which they've given Labour twice during the campaign so far. Suggests they could now be at 32% or better.
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
In Sky News papers review a few moments ago they showed an inside page of The Times with an article headlined "Labour at new high following manifesto launch boost" (or words to that effect).
Eeek....
Last YouGov/Times they were on 30%.
Most recent YouGov was a 31% (presumably for Sunday Times,) which they've given Labour twice during the campaign so far. Suggests they could now be at 32% or better.
Replace Corbyn with Miliband and we've got 2015 redux
Anthony Wells from YouGov said: “Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.”
Con 45 (-4) Lab 32 (+1) Lib Dem 8 (-1) UKIP 6 (+3)
Changes since the last YouGov poll
Lab at new high = up one.
Tories swinging back to UKIP?
The Ukip number last time was unusually low even by current standards. A Conservative number of 45% is (extraordinarily) a bit of a disappointment given how long they've been above it, but 45 vs 46 is, in truth, MOE stuff.
+1 for Labour looks superficially to be down to movement from the Lib Dems, but in fact that's a MOE difference as well and there could be more complex churn going on behind these numbers even if it signals a genuine upswing in support.
Replace Corbyn with Miliband and we've got 2015 redux
Anthony Wells from YouGov said: “Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.”
Yougov.
Still wrong at about 10:30 PM 2 years ago GE2015 weren't they ?
Con 45 (-4) Lab 32 (+1) Lib Dem 8 (-1) UKIP 6 (+3)
Changes since the last YouGov poll
Lab at new high = up one.
Tories swinging back to UKIP?
Lab-Con swing down since 2015 to 3 points there, but obviously an optimal moment for Labour.Did we ever get that mysterious "omfg" Ipsos-Mori poll?
The leader ratings compared with party ratings imply that May is now neutral (46 % vs 45% for the party) while Corbyn is still a modest negative (23 vs 32). Still advantage May, but suggests that a campaign based purely on Empress Theresa vs Coalition Chaos Jeremy may not be decisive.
So, sod off Aussies, Kiwis, Canadians with your shared language, norms, beliefs and values and your Commonwealth ties, meanwhile let's have another two years of unfettered, low-skilled immigration from Romania and beyond.
Pedantic point: where in the EU is beyond Romania? Don't let facts get in the way of an anti-European rant.
France (New Caledonia and French Polynesia)?
Nicosia 3223km, Bucharest 2093 km
Don't let facts get in the way of ignorance
The Canary Islands are even further away but that's not the point.
As I recall, the Canaries are Spanish but not in the EU.
I work with some Romanians. Lovely people btw.
The Canaries are an integral part of Spain, like Ceuta and Melilla.
They're outside the EU VAT area if I recall correctly, which presumably means they're outside the customs union too. in all other respects they're part of the EU I believe.
Con 45 (-4) Lab 32 (+1) Lib Dem 8 (-1) UKIP 6 (+3)
Changes since the last YouGov poll
Lab at new high = up one.
Tories swinging back to UKIP?
Lab-Con swing down since 2015 to 3 points there, but obviously an optimal moment for Labour.Did we ever get that mysterious "omfg" Ipsos-Mori poll?
The leader ratings compared with party ratings imply that May is now neutral (46 % vs 45% for the party) while Corbyn is still a modest negative (23 vs 32). Still advantage May, but suggests that a campaign based purely on Empress Theresa vs Coalition Chaos Jeremy may not be decisive.
The Ipsos MORI should be out either today (Thursday) or Friday.
These whinges about Tory manifesto leaks are reminiscent of the Left's howls of anguish at Blair's promises...Somewhere a right-wing Corbyn is hatching a plan...mwaaah hahahah!
Replace Corbyn with Miliband and we've got 2015 redux
Anthony Wells from YouGov said: “Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.”
Yougov.
Still wrong at about 10:30 PM 2 years ago GE2015 weren't they ?
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
Slashed? The difference between two MoE changes
The trend is your friend.
Could have crossover by election day.
The trend is indeed my friend. If the LDs continue at this rate they'll be at 4% on the big night.
Interesting that this YouGov poll has UKIP on 6% because they asked respondents to verify what post code they were going to vote in, and then asked the VI based on the candidates actually standing in their constituency.
So it would have weeded out UKIP voters who had no candidate to vote for.
Interesting that this YouGov poll has UKIP on 6% because they asked respondents to verify what post code they were going to vote in, and then asked the VI based on the candidates actually standing in their constituency.
So it would have weeded out UKIP voters who had no candidate to vote for.
Replace Corbyn with Miliband and we've got 2015 redux
Anthony Wells from YouGov said: “Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.”
Possibly we all overestimate the impact of single factors on engrained party loyalty. The 48% aren't rushing to back the LibDems despite agreeing over Brexit; Labour voters are generally Labour voters whether they like Corbyn or not; Tories don't seem deliriously happy at the moment, but they're still Tories.
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
Slashed? The difference between two MoE changes
The trend is your friend.
Could have crossover by election day.
Does that mean the buy of Con seats is a bad bet now? Should we sell?
Con 45 (-4) Lab 32 (+1) Lib Dem 8 (-1) UKIP 6 (+3)
Changes since the last YouGov poll
Lab at new high = up one.
Tories swinging back to UKIP?
Lab-Con swing down since 2015 to 3 points there, but obviously an optimal moment for Labour.Did we ever get that mysterious "omfg" Ipsos-Mori poll?
The leader ratings compared with party ratings imply that May is now neutral (46 % vs 45% for the party) while Corbyn is still a modest negative (23 vs 32). Still advantage May, but suggests that a campaign based purely on Empress Theresa vs Coalition Chaos Jeremy may not be decisive.
The Ipsos MORI should be out either today (Thursday) or Friday.
Rob's graph shows very little weekly movement - latest average point lead is still just over 17% - down a total of less than 1% over the last two weeks.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote.
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
YouGov poll - May's lead on who would make the best PM slashed by 5% in a week from 28% to 23%. 46% of voters want Mrs May in Downing Street, compared with 23% who want Mr Corbyn.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote.
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Reverse expectations management. Nice..
Success = Performance minus anticipation
A 66 seat majority will be disappointing when you think they were targeting seats like Leeds East, Bolsover, and West Bromwich East.
28 Apr - C 44, L 31 3 May - C 48, L 29 5 May - C 47, L 28 10 May - C 46, L 30 12 May - C 49, L 31 17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
If you look at the plots the lower envelope of the Tory share has been gradually rising, from 42% at the end of April to 45% now.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll </p>
Well Mike's busy and asked me to do the write up on the Ipsos MORI if it comes out around lunchtime.
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote.
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
Reverse expectations management. Nice..
Success = Performance minus anticipation
A 66 seat majority will be disappointing when you think they were targeting seats like Leeds East, Bolsover, and West Bromwich East.
66 majority, but with Corbyn still as leader? Sounds like a win to me
Comments
You point is that you tried to make a fool out of someone else, but shot yourself in the foot.
Well, I shall not top that, and I have a Tory manifesto to read tomorrow to bore people with inane comments on, so a good night to all.
Person A: I heard [scandalous story].
Person B: Well you can't believe everything you hear.
Person A: I heard it from a source I trust.
Person B: Yes, but I'm hearing it from you.
sorry having a problem with nesting
Which side of the bet?
I think that she will fight off unrest in the Brownite manner, thereby denuding her cabinet of talent but remaining in office.
I think she will be gone
IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM
if she is i owe you
if she isnt you owe me?
But happy for you to modify the wording
https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/864941285978894336
Now it makes sense
@jonkarl: The White House was blinded by the Special Counsel announcement -- given only about a 30-minute heads up
https://uk.isidewith.com/political-quiz
Happy to offer you the same bet as Fox ??
IE for clarity by the end of the conference (the final confirmation of the new leader may come at the conference-especially if a planned exit) T MAY will NOT be PM
if she is i owe you
if she isnt you owe me?
But happy for you to modify the wording
It is an interesting bet, but a bit longterm for me, so no thanks.
I do think managing Type 1 DM as PM will be a challenge.
Fox-if you are interested please email me-
MODS please pass on my email address to Fox if he asks.
Many thanks.
I'm proof reading our latest catalogue, but getting incredibly bored of how often I've used the word notable or significant....
Taken with the winter fuel and care provision changes, this amounts to a much bigger assault on expensive pensioner benefits than I was anticipating. It's effectively an attempt to tackle the thorny issue of inter-generational equity from the party that most observers would previously have thought the least inclined to do so. And the opposition parties will scream about it.
As I said before, we are about to find out how solid the Tories' support amongst the over 65s really is...
https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/864969767282757632
Eeek....
1) An annual increases in the pension of the Average if increase prices and increase in wages, maybe with a proviso that it will never be negative.
2) a one off elimination of all the extra benefits, free TV licence, bus pass, winter fuel, Christmas bones etc, and give the same amount in the pension + the any savings in administitve costs.
3) a formula to raise the pension age, probably by 2 mouths every year, to match increases in life expectancy.
how well this would go down with pensioners I don't know, some may like the flexibility of extra cash that abolishing all the other bits gives them. But I'm not shore.
@ianssmart: 2/3 A very junior Nat then leaks her volunteering. We make it a process story and the Nats themself desperately close it down.
@ianssmart: 3/3 Why would the SNP leadership want to close down a story that the Scottish Labour leader once volunteered to help them? Unless.....
@ianssmart: Does the volunteer really think she'll can spend tomorrow expelling Labour Councillors who were members while she was in the SNP? #goodluck
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/864906252673011712
TMICIPM
Con 45 (-4) Lab 32 (+1) Lib Dem 8 (-1) UKIP 6 (+3)
Fieldwork Tues/Wed
Changes since the last YouGov poll
Tories swinging back to UKIP?
May - 46
Corbyn - 23
Anthony Wells from YouGov said: “Labour seem to be holding up because they’re still getting the votes of a substantial chunk of people who don’t like Corbyn and are presumably holding their noses and voting Labour anyway.”
+1 for Labour looks superficially to be down to movement from the Lib Dems, but in fact that's a MOE difference as well and there could be more complex churn going on behind these numbers even if it signals a genuine upswing in support.
Still wrong at about 10:30 PM 2 years ago GE2015 weren't they
So time for mention this
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
The leader ratings compared with party ratings imply that May is now neutral (46 % vs 45% for the party) while Corbyn is still a modest negative (23 vs 32). Still advantage May, but suggests that a campaign based purely on Empress Theresa vs Coalition Chaos Jeremy may not be decisive.
Could have crossover by election day.
25% lead a few weeks ago, now just 14%.
3 weeks to polling day.....
Con 46
Lab 31
LD 8
UKIP 6
28 Apr - C 44, L 31
3 May - C 48, L 29
5 May - C 47, L 28
10 May - C 46, L 30
12 May - C 49, L 31
17 May - C 45, L 32
So latest poll is actually very similar to 28 Apr when lead was also 13 points.
Lab trend over last 4 YouGov polls is up but Con is bouncing up and down - possibly suggesting just random polling variation.
We certainly need to see more evidence before concluding Con is going downwards.
So it would have weeded out UKIP voters who had no candidate to vote for.
Of course that'll change the moment we get a <45% poll
https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/864950594154500096
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1I8s2PaGt5Tv6jHgXBRqqZsqU1Qh28CaOdiBDok6Ty5c/edit#gid=1573382235
My bench mark will be 52% Tory share of the vote, if she fails to hit that...
Then my headline will be 'Mrs May fails to achieve the 52% high that Cameron achieved with Ipsos MORI, Mayites need to brace themselves that she's a bit crap, as last night's YouGov poll showed her only getting a 66 seat majority against Corbyn'
TMICIPM
I predicted 43 to 35 a couple of weeks ago and still think that will be close.
Mind you Cornyn IRA stuff not started in earnest yet so could be wrong.
They used that ComRes 25% Tory lead as a benchmark, when we all knew it was an outlier.
A 66 seat majority will be disappointing when you think they were targeting seats like Leeds East, Bolsover, and West Bromwich East.
What an election this is turning out to be!!