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  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    bookseller said:

    MikeK said:

    TOPPING said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Topping

    "Speaking of which, anyone any ideas for the next book I should read?"

    If you are looking for non-fiction that you might want to try "Rebel" by Douglas Careswell, or Tim Shipman's book about the Referendum "All out War" is well worth a read, not least because it knocks a few myths propagated on this site into a cocked hat.

    If you want fiction then you could do worse that to look to Mr. Dancer's collected works for light-hearted and enjoyable romps.

    Many thanks I think I get all my political needs from real life and PB. So perhaps something non-political to read...

    And yes I did buy one of Mr Dancer's recent works.

    Thanks
    Topping, you could do worse than trying SAPIENS A brief history of humankind by Yuval Noah Harrari. It's a terrific read, so far; I'm a third of the way through it. It's also got rave reviews.
    I second that. Also, Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall is one of those books (like 'Sapiens') that changes the way you see the world.

    And if you are interested at all in the way our brains work as 'story machines' (and what happens when they break, or why certain people hold the extreme views they do) then 'Heretics' by Will Storr will help you realise why reading good fiction is essential to your ability to navigate our extremely complex tribal world.

    Lots of good books on storytelling and the way the brain processes data in stories better than plain data. The Springboard by S Denning is not bad.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    JonCisBack said:

    Another teaser tweet from a pollster then...

    Good for labour? terrible?
    LD wipeout?

    I reckon it is to do with Leadership ratings.

    Something like more Lab voters approve of Theresa May's leadership than they approve of Corbyn's leadership.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Isn't Hammond precisely the epitome of Strong and Stable? (Or is it easy to mistake dull and boring for strong and stable?)

    It does seem that nature abhors a vacuum, and that in the absence of a united opposition the Chaotic Conservatives are going to do their best to undermine themselves.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Are Ipsos still telephoning people who lie to them?
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    MTimT said:

    bookseller said:

    MikeK said:

    TOPPING said:

    HurstLlama said:

    @Topping

    "Speaking of which, anyone any ideas for the next book I should read?"

    If you are looking for non-fiction that you might want to try "Rebel" by Douglas Careswell, or Tim Shipman's book about the Referendum "All out War" is well worth a read, not least because it knocks a few myths propagated on this site into a cocked hat.

    If you want fiction then you could do worse that to look to Mr. Dancer's collected works for light-hearted and enjoyable romps.

    Many thanks I think I get all my political needs from real life and PB. So perhaps something non-political to read...

    And yes I did buy one of Mr Dancer's recent works.

    Thanks
    Topping, you could do worse than trying SAPIENS A brief history of humankind by Yuval Noah Harrari. It's a terrific read, so far; I'm a third of the way through it. It's also got rave reviews.
    I second that. Also, Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall is one of those books (like 'Sapiens') that changes the way you see the world.

    And if you are interested at all in the way our brains work as 'story machines' (and what happens when they break, or why certain people hold the extreme views they do) then 'Heretics' by Will Storr will help you realise why reading good fiction is essential to your ability to navigate our extremely complex tribal world.

    Lots of good books on storytelling and the way the brain processes data in stories better than plain data. The Springboard by S Denning is not bad.
    Thanks
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    interims?
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Alice_Aforethought said:

    Lord King (ex-BoE not ex-BA) reckons that in 30 or 40 years' time, if you were shown a time series graph of economic indicators but with the dates taken off, you will be unable to identify Brexit in there.

    A bit like the observation that if you have a 100-year graph of male mortality that includes WW1, you cannot find WW1 in the chart.

    We have decades to look forward to in which every good or bad thing that happens will be attributed to or blamed on Brexit by someone. *sigh*

    Politically I am guessing that one of the key tests for May is whether you would be able to identify Brexit from a graph of the immigration figures.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited May 2017
    Nigelb said:



    I agree that some effort and patience is required, but I don't think you need any particular expertise. It's actually an excellent way in to Restoration history.

    The theatre reviews are also marvellous in their brevity and occasional perversity -
    “…Midsummers nights dream, which I have never seen before, nor shall ever again, for it is the most insipid ridiculous play that ever I saw in my life.”

    Mr. B, I agree that prior knowledge of the period is not a precondition but without it a reader may need to spend a lot of additional time finding out who and what pepys is talking about. For example consider this snippet from the entry of Saturday 13th October 1660:

    "... I went out to Charing Cross, to see Major-general Harrison hanged, drawn, and quartered; which was done there, he looking as cheerful as any man could do in that condition ..."

    I don't know about you, but when I read something like that I wanted to know who Harrison was and how he came to be sentenced to the traitors death. In pre-internet days an hour's reading could easily lead to two pages of queries to be looked up in the Library. Now it is much quicker, just use Google, but the demand will still be there.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    MattW said:

    PClipp said:

    chestnut said:

    The UK's Buy To Let mortgage market has slumped by 50% following the April 2016 tax increase.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39947296

    That is some good news then, isn`t it? Time to bring back George Osborne.
    The most stupid decision of Osborne's career - EU referendum hari-kiri aside.

    So who is going to invest in improving poor quality property, then?

    Landlords can't ... Osbo has taxed viability away, and there is no point buying poor houses anyway since Clegg-Cameron measures mean that renting out anything below an EPC D will be an offence from 2025, and below a C from 2030. Many cannot be improved to that level without the likes of External Wall Insulation, which has a payback time in decades.

    Councils won't invest .. they significantly bailed out of older properties in the 1990s and 2000s because improvement was not viable.

    How will purchasers struggling for deposits find two or three times as much cash to bring a property up to scratch?

    Are we back to Prescott's gormless "save the market by reducing the supply by demolishing them" gibberish?

    Are you going to be doing that investing, Mr Clipp?

    We are going to end up with a long tail of owner occupied slums where the owners did not know the responsibilties they were buying into, cannot afford to maintain their houses, or improve them, and believed the pup of anti-landlord policies they were sold.

    It will end up with the govt desperately throwing grants at anything that moves, doing the investment half as efficiently as it was done before Mr Osborne's kneejerk.

    He was loudly warned at the time; this is his whirlwind and the Tories will have to weather it.
    Or changing the rules.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    BannedInParis said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    interims?
    The polling equivalent of watching the bundles of votes stack up during the count.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    BannedInParis said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    interims?
    Initial figures before they apply their filters/weighting.

    From previous chats with pollsters, interims are more favourable to Labour.

    But Ipsos have a different methodology to others.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    BannedInParis said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    interims?
    He meant to say interns - a couple of hotties in the office?
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BannedInParis said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    interims?
    Initial figures before they apply their filters/weighting.

    From previous chats with pollsters, interims are more favourable to Labour.

    But Ipsos have a different methodology to others.
    cheers.
  • daodao
    daodao Posts: 821
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/jamesldouglass/status/864825856610455553

    Shouldn't it be a green line winning here? I may be mistaken, but isn't this Llandecwyn station & Pont Briwet, in Y Fro Gymraeg.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Personally I want to see the leaked canvass returns from Hartlepool.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    SandyRentool said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
    Between SNP and Lib Dems?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/TomChivers/status/864851935702155264
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Normal people are just beginning to pay attention at this stage.
  • notme
    notme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Another teaser tweet from a pollster then...

    Good for labour? terrible?
    LD wipeout?

    I reckon it is to do with Leadership ratings.

    Something like more Lab voters approve of Theresa May's leadership than they approve of Corbyn's leadership.
    Corbyn has had a good week, labour have dominated with ideas. Are we going to see the first real narrowing of polls? Labour 36 cons 41?
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Last IM was 49-26;

    Last political monitor was 43-30.

    shrugs
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2017
    Taps mic...sniff sniff...FAKE NEWS...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/17/corbyns-fake-tweet/

    These people are like the worst undergrads I ever taught...Google...arh wikipedia article...copy paste...job done.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Taps mic...sniff sniff...FAKE NEWS...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/17/corbyns-fake-tweet/

    He's just a pound shop Eoin Clarke.
  • Patrick
    Patrick Posts: 225
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    JonCisBack said:

    Another teaser tweet from a pollster then...

    Good for labour? terrible?
    LD wipeout?

    I reckon it is to do with Leadership ratings.

    Something like more Lab voters approve of Theresa May's leadership than they approve of Corbyn's leadership.
    Corbyn has had a good week, labour have dominated with ideas. Are we going to see the first real narrowing of polls? Labour 36 cons 41?
    QTWTAIN!
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,356
    edited May 2017
    HurstLlama said:

    Nigelb said:



    I agree that some effort and patience is required, but I don't think you need any particular expertise. It's actually an excellent way in to Restoration history.

    The theatre reviews are also marvellous in their brevity and occasional perversity -
    “…Midsummers nights dream, which I have never seen before, nor shall ever again, for it is the most insipid ridiculous play that ever I saw in my life.”

    Mr. B, I agree that prior knowledge of the period is not a precondition but without it a reader may need to spend a lot of additional time finding out who and what pepys is talking about. For example consider this snippet from the entry of Saturday 13th October 1660:

    "... I went out to Charing Cross, to see Major-general Harrison hanged, drawn, and quartered; which was done there, he looking as cheerful as any man could do in that condition ..."

    I don't know about you, but when I read something like that I wanted to know who Harrison was and how he came to be sentenced to the traitors death. In pre-internet days an hour's reading could easily lead to two pages of queries to be looked up in the Library. Now it is much quicker, just use Google, but the demand will still be there.
    There's room for both opinions on this, but I rather enjoy approaching it from a position of relative ignorance (the Restoration is a serious lacuna in my knowledge of English history), and am careful not to chase too far ahead in looking up things and persons.
    Moreover, the notes and glossary in Latham and Matthews are excellent.

    (edit) And as you point out, the internet makes such an endeavour simplicity itself. Probably why I never read the diary as an undergraduate...)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sean_F said:

    logical_song said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Paging David Herdson

    https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/864835123136606208

    News to me.
    Free vote on hanging to follow that on fox hunting?
    Free votes on flogging, and reinstating the rack at the Tower of London.
    And the reintroduction of workhouses.

  • JonnyJimmy
    JonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Taps mic...sniff sniff...FAKE NEWS...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/17/corbyns-fake-tweet/

    These people are like the worst undergrads I ever taught...Google...arh wikipedia article...copy paste...job done.

    He even got the fake quote wrong. Should be "[The NHS] It will only last as long as there are's folk left with the faith to fight for it"
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    SandyRentool said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
    I'm guessing it's a double-digit lead for Labour.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I wonder if its leader ratings wih Ipsos. Remember those are tremendously good at divining how the public will actually vote between Labour and Tory.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Sean_F said:

    SandyRentool said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
    I'm guessing it's a double-digit lead for Labour.
    most trusted on economy and defence matters for sure.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    I wonder if its leader ratings wih Ipsos. Remember those are tremendously good at divining how the public will actually vote between Labour and Tory.

    We used to see threads on those in previous general elections..... nudge nudge... say no more.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sean_F said:

    SandyRentool said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
    I'm guessing it's a double-digit lead for Labour.
    It'd be an obvious massive outlier, but would lead to a big margin call for Tory buy spread bettors.
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    I've stopped getting excited by pollsters' trailers. My guess is it's a verdict on the Labour manifesto.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    I expect he expressed his intention not to vote for Theresa May's Team.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    JonnyJimmy said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Taps mic...sniff sniff...FAKE NEWS...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/17/corbyns-fake-tweet/

    These people are like the worst undergrads I ever taught...Google...arh wikipedia article...copy paste...job done.

    He even got the fake quote wrong. Should be "[The NHS] It will only last as long as there are's folk left with the faith to fight for it"
    So he got the quote wrong, and the attribution wrong. Well done Jeremy!
  • Eastwinger
    Eastwinger Posts: 356
    Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.

    I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    NickPalmer said:

    I've stopped getting excited by pollsters' trailers. My guess is it's a verdict on the Labour manifesto.

    In general, when pollsters ramp their own poll, the result is deeply underwhelming. Most likely, the Tories will have a 20+pt lead and everyone will say they think Corbyn has the leadership acumen of a drunken grasshopper, which is about as surprising as the sun coming up in the morning.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    A couple of investment pieces:

    IKEA to create 1300 new jobs in London, Exeter and Sheffield

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-ikea-ab-jobs-idUKKCN18D0QT?il=0

    Chinese commit to binding agreement for Yorkshire Mine. Thousands of jobs projected.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mining-sirius-idUKKCN18D0VM?il=0
  • The_Taxman
    The_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I am quite amused by the "Wobbly Wednesday" narrative.
    Maybe I am getting old but every election seems to have a section when a "wobble" occurs. Not that the polling has yet really shown anything but the Hammond and Boris stories in todays media seem to be playing out this narrative. Maybe the polls will unexpectedly show Labour doing better as well next! Some tinkering with samples will do that! Then come election day the result that everybody predicated would happen will happen - A Tory landslide. To be honest I find campaigns boring and I am only really interested in the results. The ground war is always different to the media war and from my observations Corbyn is so unpopular with non Labour party members I will be surprised if Labour get more than 26% of the vote.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    NickPalmer said:

    I've stopped getting excited by pollsters' trailers. My guess is it's a verdict on the Labour manifesto.

    Ditto. – Any poll movement up/down will set the week’s manifesto narrative for a lazy media.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    The_Taxman said:

    I am quite amused by the "Wobbly Wednesday" narrative.
    Maybe I am getting old but every election seems to have a section when a "wobble" occurs. Not that the polling has yet really shown anything but the Hammond and Boris stories in todays media seem to be playing out this narrative. Maybe the polls will unexpectedly show Labour doing better as well next! Some tinkering with samples will do that! Then come election day the result that everybody predicated would happen will happen - A Tory landslide. To be honest I find campaigns boring and I am only really interested in the results. The ground war is always different to the media war and from my observations Corbyn is so unpopular with non Labour party members I will be surprised if Labour get more than 26% of the vote.

    A cynic might say that Hammond and Boris have done the job they needed to do, which was to make sure no-one was talking about the Lib Dem manifesto today.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    chestnut said:

    A couple of investment pieces:

    IKEA to create 1300 new jobs in London, Exeter and Sheffield

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-ikea-ab-jobs-idUKKCN18D0QT?il=0

    Chinese commit to binding agreement for Yorkshire Mine. Thousands of jobs projected.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mining-sirius-idUKKCN18D0VM?il=0

    Ikea Sheffield is very old news.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    OblitusSumMe said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    I expect he expressed his intention not to vote for Theresa May's Team.
    That should be a capital offence.

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    SandyRentool said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)

    Crossover?
    I'm guessing it's a double-digit lead for Labour.
    It'd be an obvious massive outlier, but would lead to a big margin call for Tory buy spread bettors.
    I remember in 1997, about a week before polling day, ICM produced a poll cutting Labour's lead to 5%, which caused a lot of excitement, but which proved an outlier.

    There's bound to be at least one poll giving the Conservatives a single digit lead this time.
  • The_Taxman
    The_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Sandpit said:

    The_Taxman said:

    I am quite amused by the "Wobbly Wednesday" narrative.
    Maybe I am getting old but every election seems to have a section when a "wobble" occurs. Not that the polling has yet really shown anything but the Hammond and Boris stories in todays media seem to be playing out this narrative. Maybe the polls will unexpectedly show Labour doing better as well next! Some tinkering with samples will do that! Then come election day the result that everybody predicated would happen will happen - A Tory landslide. To be honest I find campaigns boring and I am only really interested in the results. The ground war is always different to the media war and from my observations Corbyn is so unpopular with non Labour party members I will be surprised if Labour get more than 26% of the vote.

    A cynic might say that Hammond and Boris have done the job they needed to do, which was to make sure no-one was talking about the Lib Dem manifesto today.
    Indeed, you could be right. Not sure that legalising cannabis and the referendum on the EU are big vote winners. I would not vote for a party advocating legalising drugs like cannabis as I have seen first hand what they can do to people. I might have given a second thought about the Referendum but it is too late in the day for that and how do we know the people would not vote even more solidly for Brexit? I think chickens will come home to roost when Immigration is still very high and the NHS is short of cash as it always will be. No, I decided to vote Tory in this election and I will not change my mind now. I think the Lib Dems will be defeated in a few of their English seats that they held from 2015 - 2017.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
    If an individual would be marked out as a person of interest.
    Carrying anything beyond a basic handset with nothing extra installed on it is crazy.

  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
    I'm not a fan of Cage, but I don't think the government should have the right to force its own citizens to disclose their passwords. (Whether he is going through immigration or not is beside the point.)
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Eastwinger said:

    I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.

    No good if Theresa May is top trumps on popularity though.....

  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    I expect he expressed his intention not to vote for Theresa May's Team.
    That should be a capital offence.
    Well, that would help to even up the difference in life expectancy from time of voting that exists between voters for Theresa May's Team and voters for other parties.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    chestnut said:

    A couple of investment pieces:

    IKEA to create 1300 new jobs in London, Exeter and Sheffield

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-ikea-ab-jobs-idUKKCN18D0QT?il=0

    Chinese commit to binding agreement for Yorkshire Mine. Thousands of jobs projected.

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-mining-sirius-idUKKCN18D0VM?il=0

    Ikea Sheffield is very old news.
    I hope the Chinese hire as many local people as possible.
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
    If an individual would be marked out as a person of interest.
    Carrying anything beyond a basic handset with nothing extra installed on it is crazy.

    Quite. You'd think he'd happily hand over his Nokia 3310 to the cops and wish them luck with it.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2017
    Doesn't look like MORI is out yet then? (Not sure what poll the ES were quoting this morning?)

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/864841028616036353

    https://twitter.com/kevwat84/status/864843761091739649

    https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/864844780525801472



    Con gone above 50%?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
    I'm not a fan of Cage, but I don't think the government should have the right to force its own citizens to disclose their passwords. (Whether he is going through immigration or not is beside the point.)
    What passwords does the (US)/our Gov't ask for these days ?

    Twitter ?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)


    CONS gain Bolsover?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Eastwinger said:

    Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.

    I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.

    I agree. Although most of us on PB think the Tories will get a large 100 seat majority but we keep saying"I just can't see that particular seat falling" some of us have to be wrong........
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    I've just cast my eye over the latest leaflet from Andrea Jenkyns. Generally good, but she should've hired me to proofread it (I'm very reasonably priced).

    "I have fought with the Supporters Trust..." - alongside
    "I campaigned to keep open the Stanley Community Centre as this will damage the community in Stanley" - as its closure would
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    I'm not sure who the next leader is but I'd love to be the bookie here.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    I've just cast my eye over the latest leaflet from Andrea Jenkyns. Generally good, but she should've hired me to proofread it (I'm very reasonably priced).

    "I have fought with the Supporters Trust..." - alongside
    "I campaigned to keep open the Stanley Community Centre as this will damage the community in Stanley" - as its closure would

    I don't think Jo Swinson will win Dumbartonshire East. But if she does, she's probably favourite to be next LD leader.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)


    CONS gain Bolsover?
    Maybe Jezza has made a comeback... Like when that famous ICM poll in 1997 which seemed to show the Tories within 5% of Labour?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    I've just cast my eye over the latest leaflet from Andrea Jenkyns. Generally good, but she should've hired me to proofread it (I'm very reasonably priced).

    "I have fought with the Supporters Trust..." - alongside
    "I campaigned to keep open the Stanley Community Centre as this will damage the community in Stanley" - as its closure would

    I don't think Jo Swinson will win Dumbartonshire East. But if she does, she's probably favourite to be next LD leader.
    Sensed a bit of firming up for the SNP in the polls recently ?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    Given they seem like they might get anywhere from 4-15, if it is toward the lower end and its down to Clegg, Williams (who?), Farron and Carmichael, he probably would win, although if they get no forward momentum, it's hard to see how any leader would get any meaningful publicity to make points to the public anyway.
  • The_Taxman
    The_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
  • perdix
    perdix Posts: 1,806
    http://www.conservativehome.com/video/2017/05/watch-when-clegg-told-people-to-accept-the-referendum-result-and-move-on.html

  • bookseller
    bookseller Posts: 508
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Clegg - he kept his seat last time, and will keep his seat again. He's still very popular in the party, a high profile Remainer with government experience, good book out (!) and this election should launder the remains of the disappointment of 2015 from him. 16-1 looks great odds.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2017
    The_Taxman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
    Liberals are an odd breed though - it's not as though ambitious people who want to be PM one day join the LDs, and while I question if the new influx of membership will remain committed if no forward progress is show, would the core of the party want to try for another slow rebuild from the wilderness rather than essentially admitting they are just Labour lite?

    Maybe their price would be any new grouping having Liberal in its name at least, so it looks less like they are just taken over by Labour defectors?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    I've just cast my eye over the latest leaflet from Andrea Jenkyns. Generally good, but she should've hired me to proofread it (I'm very reasonably priced).

    "I have fought with the Supporters Trust..." - alongside
    "I campaigned to keep open the Stanley Community Centre as this will damage the community in Stanley" - as its closure would

    I don't think Jo Swinson will win Dumbartonshire East. But if she does, she's probably favourite to be next LD leader.
    Sensed a bit of firming up for the SNP in the polls recently ?
    'Tis all meaningless subsamples. Until there are a coupe more Scotland only polls (an I hear there was a Scotland only YouGov in the field yesterday) we know nothing.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/864828930603319296
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/864828930603319296

    Bercow really messes up the map with that great big grey constituency.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    The_Taxman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
    I think the Liberal brand is the kiss of death for any split. The Libs joined the SDP to form the Lib Dems and look at them now. If there was a Liberal Democrat Alliance Party I think you'd find support drifting back to Labour over 15 years or so.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    GIN1138 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)


    CONS gain Bolsover?
    Maybe Jezza has made a comeback... Like when that famous ICM poll in 1997 which seemed to show the Tories within 5% of Labour?
    these poll teasers are like like showing heroin addicts with no money a picture of a syringe. problem is it could be the good stuff or rat poison . i need a polling fix
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/864828930603319296

    Dwyfor (Should be PC Hold) and the Gower (Should be Con Hold) are incorrect due to Plaid supporter being rubbish at answering BES Wave 10 surveys.

    Jut saying :)
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    The director of campaign group Cage, Muhammed Rabbani, has been charged under the Terrorism Act.

    Is this for not disclosing his passwords at immigration? Or is it for him doing terrorist-y things?
    Sadly, it looks like the former. What did Benjamin Franklin once say about liberty and security?

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/17/cage-directorcharged-terrorism-act-failing-disclose-password/
    I'm not a fan of Cage, but I don't think the government should have the right to force its own citizens to disclose their passwords. (Whether he is going through immigration or not is beside the point.)
    Agreed, a very slippery slope. Although why he wasn't travelling with either a blank laptop or one with a Truecrypt partion I have no idea.

    Ditto with phones, I'm getting one of those 'new' Nokia 3330s for a US trip later in the year, will pick up a new iPad while I'm there and will have the VPN login only in my head as I cross the border. If I can be bothered to go there at all.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    GIN1138 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)


    CONS gain Bolsover?
    Maybe Jezza has made a comeback... Like when that famous ICM poll in 1997 which seemed to show the Tories within 5% of Labour?
    Could be - they have already perhaps had that comeback, given their pick up in the polls, but I did predict there'd be a poll with Labour within 10 at some point. Possible a manifesto boost.

    But of course poll rampers go nuts over any detail in a poll, and we fall for it every time.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    I'm not sure who the next leader is but I'd love to be the bookie here.
    Very true. Shame the Betfair market hasn't really got going, it's definitely one for the layers rather than the backers until we know who survives the election.
  • Baskerville
    Baskerville Posts: 391
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Mr. 1000, yesterday Miss Forethought suggested Clegg might stand (but not necessarily win) for leader. Other chattering, earlier today, was on Jo Swinson.

    I've just cast my eye over the latest leaflet from Andrea Jenkyns. Generally good, but she should've hired me to proofread it (I'm very reasonably priced).

    "I have fought with the Supporters Trust..." - alongside
    "I campaigned to keep open the Stanley Community Centre as this will damage the community in Stanley" - as its closure would

    I don't think Jo Swinson will win Dumbartonshire East. But if she does, she's probably favourite to be next LD leader.
    Sensed a bit of firming up for the SNP in the polls recently ?
    I don't think it'll be enough to stop the LDs grabbing Edinburgh West. The rest of Scotland... Who knows
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Sees there's a poll with Lab on 33 and LDs reducing further to 7. Dead and buried. Either people just don't like what they are seeing, or they care more about limiting a Tory majority by voting Labour. Labour aren't even going to split if they get numbers like that, so it looks like wilderness or oblivion for the liberals.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    As someone on Philip Hammond to be next out of the Cabinet at 25/1, I am pleased by this thread.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,311
    Baskerville said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
    Carmichael only gets it if he is the only one left standing, Grimond style. The party won't take Clegg again, whatever.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Blue_rog said:

    The_Taxman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
    I think the Liberal brand is the kiss of death for any split. The Libs joined the SDP to form the Lib Dems and look at them now. If there was a Liberal Democrat Alliance Party I think you'd find support drifting back to Labour over 15 years or so.
    Surely the kiss of death was Kinnock throwing out Militant.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    IanB2 said:

    Baskerville said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
    Carmichael only gets it if he is the only one left standing, Grimond style. The party won't take Clegg again, whatever.
    What if the MPs are down to Clegg and Carmichael - is there a rule that the party leader must be an MP?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    Blue_rog said:

    The_Taxman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
    I think the Liberal brand is the kiss of death for any split. The Libs joined the SDP to form the Lib Dems and look at them now. If there was a Liberal Democrat Alliance Party I think you'd find support drifting back to Labour over 15 years or so.
    Surely the kiss of death was Kinnock throwing out Militant.
    He threw out most of Militant but he left behind people like Corbyn who should have been thrown out with them. If you remove a cancer you have to remove all of it or it comes back with a vengeance and that's what has happened now.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Blue_rog said:

    The_Taxman said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
    I think the Liberal brand is the kiss of death for any split. The Libs joined the SDP to form the Lib Dems and look at them now. If there was a Liberal Democrat Alliance Party I think you'd find support drifting back to Labour over 15 years or so.
    Surely the kiss of death was Kinnock throwing out Militant.
    And now Militant are and the LDs are still going backwards in the polls (or flatlining). Curious.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. 1000, agreed. Jo Swinson comes across as someone very much with the human touch.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Baskerville said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
    Carmichael only gets it if he is the only one left standing, Grimond style. The party won't take Clegg again, whatever.
    What if the MPs are down to Clegg and Carmichael - is there a rule that the party leader must be an MP?
    Alistair Carmichael wins I think.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    People seem very confident the LDs should win Edinburgh West, so whoever the candidate there surely has a good chance being leader, since of the four most likely 'Survivors' each have issues (apart from Williams as far as I know, but that no one has touted him as a potential candidate must speak for itself).
  • Disraeli
    Disraeli Posts: 1,106
    The "poll teasers" were fun the first few times.

    The joke is getting a bit stale now.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/864828930603319296

    Bercow really messes up the map with that great big grey constituency.
    Milky vomit
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    kle4 said:

    People seem very confident the LDs should win Edinburgh West, so whoever the candidate there surely has a good chance being leader, since of the four most likely 'Survivors' each have issues (apart from Williams as far as I know, but that no one has touted him as a potential candidate must speak for itself).

    Chrsitin Jardine. Noone knows her from Eve yet, so it won't be her.
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Thread on Macron new appointments:

    https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/864862152879943680
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    AlastairMeeks said:

    As someone on Philip Hammond to be next out of the Cabinet at 25/1, I am pleased by this thread.

    I reckon the dead heat rules will ruin our bets.
  • Nemtynakht
    Nemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    kjohnw said:

    GIN1138 said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    marke09 said:

    Ben Page, Ipsos MORI‏Verified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago

    Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg :)


    CONS gain Bolsover?
    Maybe Jezza has made a comeback... Like when that famous ICM poll in 1997 which seemed to show the Tories within 5% of Labour?
    these poll teasers are like like showing heroin addicts with no money a picture of a syringe. problem is it could be the good stuff or rat poison . i need a polling fix
    I would expect a Labour boost after manifesto launch. That would be normal in conference season for example. However the other possibility is that Corbyn has reinforced the previous opinions and further solidified the Tory vote. Surely labour supporters would have been worried this morning on the radio news analysis that Labour are targeting the young and people who do not vote.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Pulpstar said:

    kle4 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Baskerville said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?

    Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.

    The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)

    * There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...

    Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.

    Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
    Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
    Carmichael only gets it if he is the only one left standing, Grimond style. The party won't take Clegg again, whatever.
    What if the MPs are down to Clegg and Carmichael - is there a rule that the party leader must be an MP?
    Alistair Carmichael wins I think.
    Does Carmicheal actually represent any strand or idea at all within the Lib Dems though? Maybe I'm wrong, but he seems to just sort of be 'there' because Orkney/Shetland always votes liberal. I can see supporters mobilising to elect Clegg again, and both Farron and Lamb offered distinct pathways post 2015, but Carmichael? I struggle to see him being leader unless he is literally the last MP (or if it is just him and Farron and Farron resigns). Even then I could see a non-MP throwing their hat in the ring at that point, a popular peer or former MP.
  • Animal_pb
    Animal_pb Posts: 608
    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/864828930603319296

    Bercow really messes up the map with that great big grey constituency.
    Milky vomit
    Haven't heard him called that before; but, yeah, I get that.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/davidcochrane/status/864868255890104324
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