Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?
Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.
The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)
* There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...
I actually think that sub 8 Lib Dem MPs and a Labour split could be the perfect dynamic for a new centre to centre Left party. If such a party did come into existence I doubt Clegg would be leader even though he has top level government experience. It would be someone formally from the Labour party. The Lib Dems could well be in the wilderness if they don't grab the new centre party alliance for decades to come. Just remember how long the Lib Dems were in the wilderness from 1945 onwards. I think the scenario is similar to today.
I think the Liberal brand is the kiss of death for any split. The Libs joined the SDP to form the Lib Dems and look at them now. If there was a Liberal Democrat Alliance Party I think you'd find support drifting back to Labour over 15 years or so.
Surely the kiss of death was Kinnock throwing out Militant.
He threw out most of Militant but he left behind people like Corbyn who should have been thrown out with them. If you remove a cancer you have to remove all of it or it comes back with a vengeance and that's what has happened now.
They tolerated Corbyn on the distant back benches in order to prove that the left had been marginalised. Their ultimate tactic was to put him on the leadership ballot, just to ram the point home. "We'll show the people what sort of party we really are."
"Speaking of which, anyone any ideas for the next book I should read?"
If you are looking for non-fiction that you might want to try "Rebel" by Douglas Careswell, or Tim Shipman's book about the Referendum "All out War" is well worth a read, not least because it knocks a few myths propagated on this site into a cocked hat.
If you want fiction then you could do worse that to look to Mr. Dancer's collected works for light-hearted and enjoyable romps.
Many thanks I think I get all my political needs from real life and PB. So perhaps something non-political to read...
And yes I did buy one of Mr Dancer's recent works.
Thanks
Topping, you could do worse than trying SAPIENS A brief history of humankind by Yuval Noah Harrari. It's a terrific read, so far; I'm a third of the way through it. It's also got rave reviews.
I second that. Also, Prisoners of Geography by Tim Marshall is one of those books (like 'Sapiens') that changes the way you see the world.
I was somewhat underwhelmed by that. There's a lot that's been covered in other places (for example, Jared Diamond) and a lot that's really sensible.
I guess, the point is that its sensible once you've had it explained carefully.
But, yeah, underwhelmed.
I would agree about Jared Diamond - his is the go-to book about how geography affects everything, although I did think Tim Marshall was well written and accessible. Publishers continue to repackage old ideas with a new spin - the latest causing everyone to swoon is 'Scale' by Geoffrey West. Great writing, but really nothing blistering new since 'On Being the Right Size' by JBS Haldane, only with a bit of updating for modern cities and corporations.
David Landes 'The Wealth and Poverty of Nations' is a good read if you like your books to be a bit more demanding ('Thinking Fast and Slow' falls into this category as well).
Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.
I agree. Although most of us on PB think the Tories will get a large 100 seat majority but we keep saying"I just can't see that particular seat falling" some of us have to be wrong........
One assumes that for rough guidance this list is OK http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/ except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
Ben Page, Ipsos MORIVerified account @benatipsosmori 5m5 minutes ago
Looking at interims on our next #ge2017 poll omfg
CONS gain Bolsover?
Maybe Jezza has made a comeback... Like when that famous ICM poll in 1997 which seemed to show the Tories within 5% of Labour?
Could be - they have already perhaps had that comeback, given their pick up in the polls, but I did predict there'd be a poll with Labour within 10 at some point. Possible a manifesto boost.
But of course poll rampers go nuts over any detail in a poll, and we fall for it every time.
Last IPSOS was, I think, 3 weeks ago and had Labour at 26 and LDs at 13 so perfectly possible Labour are up +6/7 given other companies who poll more frequently. More interesting would be if Tories are below 45 and Labour 35+ as that would be a break with the past 2 weeks and might persuade CCHQ that they need to change strategy.
Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?
Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.
The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)
* There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...
If Farron decides to step aside and Jo Swinson gains East Dumbartonshire then she could be in with a good chance.
Has anyone had any thoughts on next LibDem leader?
Given it's looking increasingly likely* that the LDs will be sub 10 seats on June 10th, there will likely be a new LibDem leader. Are there any odds on Alistair Carmichael? Given he's the only LD who I'm absolutely certain will be re-elected, he might be the value bet.
The other possibility is Clegg as he's in Remainia and faces a split opposition. (Given there's a fairly high probability that Lamb doesn't survive, he's probably too short, odds wise.)
* There's still time for them to turn it around, of course...
Just looked up the odds. Tom Brake (likely loser in Carshalton) is third favourite on 6-1, while Norman Lamb (probable loser in North Norfolk) is on 2-1. Greg Mulholland in Leeds NW is the other favourite.
Carmichael and Clegg are both 16-1. I would suggest backing both with small stakes.
Could only get 2.57 on each, but good tip.
Carmichael only gets it if he is the only one left standing, Grimond style. The party won't take Clegg again, whatever.
What if the MPs are down to Clegg and Carmichael - is there a rule that the party leader must be an MP?
Alistair Carmichael wins I think.
Does Carmicheal actually represent any strand or idea at all within the Lib Dems though? Maybe I'm wrong, but he seems to just sort of be 'there' because Orkney/Shetland always votes liberal. I can see supporters mobilising to elect Clegg again, and both Farron and Lamb offered distinct pathways post 2015, but Carmichael? I struggle to see him being leader unless he is literally the last MP (or if it is just him and Farron and Farron resigns). Even then I could see a non-MP throwing their hat in the ring at that point, a popular peer or former MP.
There was a survey a few years ago which analysed LD MPs positions on a range of issues. Alistair Carmichael came out as the most left wing.
Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.
I agree. Although most of us on PB think the Tories will get a large 100 seat majority but we keep saying"I just can't see that particular seat falling" some of us have to be wrong........
One assumes that for rough guidance this list is OK http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/ except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
Good list on the whole, though it only goes to number 75, I can see tories winning a few above that but missing out on some of the London seats that are in the top 20.
Chris Hanratty (UEA Election Forecast) reckons Norfolk will go completely blue. Norman Lamb 100% lose and Clive Lewis (Norwich South) 66% lose.
I still think Lewis will hang on, big Green and Lib Dem vote to feed off plus very popular in the City.
I agree. Although most of us on PB think the Tories will get a large 100 seat majority but we keep saying"I just can't see that particular seat falling" some of us have to be wrong........
One assumes that for rough guidance this list is OK http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/ except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
Good list on the whole, though it only goes to number 75, I can see tories winning a few above that but missing out on some of the London seats that are in the top 20.
Comments
David Landes 'The Wealth and Poverty of Nations' is a good read if you like your books to be a bit more demanding ('Thinking Fast and Slow' falls into this category as well).
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/conservative-targets/
except that some in London might just hang on and some in B'ham, Wolverhampton and Coventry outside the first 40 might fall if they really dislike J.C.
Or, as others say, they could be 50+!
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