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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the June 8th landslide

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Blue_rog

First?

GeoffM

Second!

TOPPING

Third like Arsenal

Edit: fake news

TheScreamingEagles

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

TheScreamingEagles

If she did sack him, she better not sack anyone else, I'm tipped Hammond at 25/1 I think as first out of the cabinet back in October.

More than one sacking and the dead heat rules apply :-(

nunu

First like Abbot!

SandyRentool

Car crash...

Popcorn...

LOL...

Nice to see the shoe on the other foot.

Richard_Nabavi

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Pulpstar

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?

TheScreamingEagles

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

Well done Boris.

And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, you're rewriting history there. Numbers 10 and 11 detested one another, with Brown finally overthrowing Blair in 2007.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.

Yes, and I expect he's also provided free market resistance to some of her ideas in the manifesto too.

He must stay.

TheScreamingEagles

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.

Yes, and I expect he's also provided free market resistance to some of her ideas in the manifesto too.

He must stay.

Yup, he's a proper Thatcherite free market economic disciple, he is after all a successful businessman, what would he know.

JackW

Number 11

Unlike Phil Hammond soon ....

Nigelb

Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

Richard_Nabavi

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?

It could be the correct decision, if there are irreconcilable differences on crucial policy issues. But it would be a risk nonetheless.

FF43

So May is sacking Hammond on grounds of competence?

DecrepitJohnL

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. L, you're rewriting history there. Numbers 10 and 11 detested one another, with Brown finally overthrowing Blair in 2007.

Wasn't there a PMQs where Neil Kinnock said something along the lines of "I'd like to assure the Prime Minister she spoke for the entire nation [pause for effect] when she criticised the Chancellor"?

Mortimer

Wherefore art thou, MORI??

I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....

TheScreamingEagles

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

SandyRentool

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

Well done Boris.

And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....

Er, wrong religion, Mr W!

Nigelb

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?

It could be the correct decision, if there are irreconcilable differences on crucial policy issues. But it would be a risk nonetheless.

That's a yes, then.

chrisb

I'm not sure Hammond would have been stood at that podium side by side with May, if he was really up for the chop after the election.

TheScreamingEagles

I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

He's a bloody tease.

JackW

SandyRentool said:

JackW said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

Well done Boris.

And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....

Er, wrong religion, Mr W!

Boris not in the Conservative Party religion ?!?

david_herdson

Blue_rog said:

I wonder if Teresa will go all GOAT and offer a position to some 'dry' Laourites after the election

No. That might attract one or two but would reinforce the loyalty of the rest to Labour at a time when some might be thinking of splitting.

david_herdson

On topic, I would be very surprised if Hammond is for the chop. I expect that May's comments were the sort consistent with her desire to never give any hostages to fortune and to prevent similar questions being asked of her other cabinet ministers.

TheScreamingEagles

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

He's a bloody tease.

Nah, I asked him, he told me.

He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.

Baskerville

Nigelb said:

Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

TM spent five years in a coalition cabinet which benefited hugely from Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle unless absolutely necessary. SoSs had time to master their briefs and civil servants weren't constantly forced to change direction by a new face at the top.
She chose Hammond in the wake of the referendum as a safe and reassuring pair of hands. Her priorities may now change... and a new resident of No11 would signal that.
My guess is that she will keep changes to a minimum, but will take the opportunity to refresh the top table by bringing in some new faces, like Raab and Gyimah.
Anybody know of a next CoE market?

OUT

Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
More
LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

How many recording devices can you fit into one room?

TheScreamingEagles

SeanT said:

It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

First unforced election error by the Tories.

Second.

First was fox hunting

Pulpstar

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

First unforced election error by the Tories.

Second.

First was fox hunting

May will do some Fox Hunting if she has any sense after the election.

RobD

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

He's a bloody tease.

Nah, I asked him, he told me.

He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.

What better way to launch the Tory manifesto than with the biggest MORI Tory lead ever recorded?

DecrepitJohnL

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

He's a bloody tease.

Nah, I asked him, he told me.

He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.

As rare as a LibDem 'winning here'?

TheScreamingEagles

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

Yes but they were over policies.

Not about trying to topple the PM.

Nigelb

OUT said:

Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
More
LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

How many recording devices can you fit into one room?

Record, or recording ? Not the same thing at all.

SouthamObserver

May does not like:
1. People who question her.
2. Anyone the anti-European press does not like.

On that basis, Hammond is surely toast. Gove passes test 2, he fails test 1. So Hammond will be replaced by a nodding Brexiteer - or someone who can pretend to be one. The quality of the cabinet will fall even further.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

Yes but they were over policies.

Not about trying to topple the PM.

Until Geoffrey Howe did!

TheWhiteRabbit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

SimonStClare

If Theresa May wins the general election, a cabinet reshuffle, if one was to occur, would take place soon after re-entering No10. Somehow I doubt she’ll be as keen to keep hopeless ministers in place for long, as Cameron was prone to do. However I’m not convinced Hammond is for the chop quite yet, based on the somewhat flimsy evidence so far.

TheScreamingEagles

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

Yes but they were over policies.

Not about trying to topple the PM.

Until Geoffrey Howe did!

He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.

nunu

Many more current Labour supporters didn't vote in GE 2015 or EURef compared to the tories.

http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/

Yes, the polls ARE overstating Labour.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

Yes but they were over policies.

Not about trying to topple the PM.

Until Geoffrey Howe did!

He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.

But he was trying to topple her.

TheScreamingEagles

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

JackW

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

You must recall that TSE considers Osborne to be the greatest Chancellor in his lifetime.

Who knew TSE was born in 2010 ? .... A boy genius to match a genius of a Chancellor ....

Artist

Maybe Javid can be considered for Chancellor now Osborne has gone.

williamglenn

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

Yes but they were over policies.

Not about trying to topple the PM.

Until Geoffrey Howe did!

He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.

But he was trying to topple her.

The Brexit negotiations will make many members of the government have to 'wrestle with a tragic conflict of loyalties'.

TheScreamingEagles

JackW said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.

Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.

You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.

You must recall that TSE considers Osborne to be the greatest Chancellor in his lifetime.

Who knew TSE was born in 2010 ? .... A boy genius to match a genius of a Chancellor ....

Nah the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime was Ken Clarke.

Said so on the previous thread.

TudorRose

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

Did anyone see the Newsnight fluff (I think it was Friday) when they were trying to find her? Apparently they're going to waste even more licence payers' money trying to find other politicians 'in hiding'. Any suggestions?

logical_song

I expect he's 'unassailable'.

Pulpstar

nunu said:

Many more current Labour supporters didn't vote in GE 2015 or EURef compared to the tories.

http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/

Yes, the polls ARE overstating Labour.

If you didn't vote in GE2015 Ref2016, there is no chance you'll vote in this. Unless you're a politically interested 18 year old, but that won't even make the roundings.

DecrepitJohnL

TudorRose said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

Did anyone see the Newsnight fluff (I think it was Friday) when they were trying to find her? Apparently they're going to waste even more licence payers' money trying to find other politicians 'in hiding'. Any suggestions?

The biased BBC trying to give even more airtime to the Tories.

Paristonda

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

First unforced election error by the Tories.

Second.

First was fox hunting

Nah. After all the horrible interventionist leftwing crap (needed to win over Labour waverers) she had to throw some symbolic red meat to the backbench bloodhounds. Foxhunting was it. It's unlikely to pass.

Blair of course did the same, but in reverse.

I doubt it will change more than a few thousand votes. Passionate anti-hunters, the kind of voter where this cause trumps any other consideration, are a very small minority, and most unlikely to vote Tory.

It won't change any votes, but if they actually try to repeal the ban then it could cause all sorts of trouble. It's an issue with a small but extremely vocal minority of very active opponents, and a public that currently is pretty calm about it all but remains largely opposed on the whole. Potential for it to tarnish May's popularity, and it doesn't really fit with her Mother of the Nation image. Could suck up much oxygen from the next parliament if so.

williamglenn

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

A leading Brexiteer to oversee the implementation of special status to keep Northern Ireland in the EU? That would be poetic justice.

TheScreamingEagles

Ack.

Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

Scott_P

You want tapes? Ve have tapes...

@AFP: #BREAKING Putin 'ready to provide recording' of Lavrov-Trump exchange

Nigelb

FPT, another interesting snippet from Comey's Notes..
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/16/us/politics/james-comey-trump-flynn-russia-investigation.html
Alone in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump began the discussion by condemning leaks to the news media, saying that Mr. Comey should consider putting reporters in prison for publishing classified information, according to one of Mr. Comey’s associates…

With a complaisant Attorney General, and a cowed FBI, prosecutions under the (WW1) Espionage Act would be entirely possible.
The subsequent battle in the courts over Ist Amendment right would be very messy.

Casino_Royale

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

I think Hunt does a good job.

If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.

Scott_P

Mortimer said:

Wherefore art thou, MORI??

I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....

That was extraordinary!

What are the numbers for your nationalisation program?

We are not going to just buy them at market value. We are going to destroy the market value first, so they will be cheaper...

felix

Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam

There it is - in the fiscal costings for the LibDem manifesto: £1 billion raised from "Cannabis Taxation". Too high?

Seems like one or two thread headers may have been written under the influence....

TheScreamingEagles

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

I think Hunt does a good job.

If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.

Not happening. Too much history there.

Fiona Hill was sacked for smearing/leaking against Gove.

JackW

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nah the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime was Ken Clarke.

Said so on the previous thread.

You mean that Commie according to @Sean_Fear ?

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?

felix

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

First unforced election error by the Tories.

Second.

First was fox hunting

Is that why the Tories have tanked in the polls? Oh....

SimonStClare

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ack.

Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.

Paristonda

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

I think Hunt does a good job.

If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.

But doesn't she have a strong personal dislike of Gove? When she wins this election she will largely have a free hand to choose who she pleases, without worrying about intra-party management. He has some good ideas but I don't see any future for him in government as long as May is PM.

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/864812246245011456

TheScreamingEagles

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?

Nope they have lifetime security/protection.

As that report in The Sunday Times said last year, according to MI5 we're more at risk of terrorism from dissident Irish republicans than from Islamist terrorism.

Because the former have more stocks/access to bombs, Semtex, and weapons than the latter.

felix

Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...

HYUFD

The Rock beats Trump in new 2020 poll
https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/864495723571818496

Sandpit

Paristonda said:

SeanT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

First unforced election error by the Tories.

Second.

First was fox hunting

Nah. After all the horrible interventionist leftwing crap (needed to win over Labour waverers) she had to throw some symbolic red meat to the backbench bloodhounds. Foxhunting was it. It's unlikely to pass.

Blair of course did the same, but in reverse.

I doubt it will change more than a few thousand votes. Passionate anti-hunters, the kind of voter where this cause trumps any other consideration, are a very small minority, and most unlikely to vote Tory.

It won't change any votes, but if they actually try to repeal the ban then it could cause all sorts of trouble. It's an issue with a small but extremely vocal minority of very active opponents, and a public that currently is pretty calm about it all but remains largely opposed on the whole. Potential for it to tarnish May's popularity, and it doesn't really fit with her Mother of the Nation image. Could suck up much oxygen from the next parliament if so.

The comments on the free vote for repeal were squarely aimed at the Countryside Alliance, which is the closest thing the Tories have to a Union supporting them. They'll bring lots of activists and donations over the next few weeks, and it is an issue they care massively about.

Pulpstar

Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win

felix

Scott_P said:

Mortimer said:

Wherefore art thou, MORI??

I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....

That was extraordinary!

What are the numbers for your nationalisation program?

We are not going to just buy them at market value. We are going to destroy the market value first, so they will be cheaper...

Golly - did he really say that?

JackW

felix said:

Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...

Any time in the next 24 weeks ....

Scott_P

@murdo_fraser: Funny how @NicolaSturgeon didn't take that view in the McGarry or Thomson cases. Is @TasminaSheikh just better conn… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/864783139809501185

Ishmael_Z

Nigelb said:

Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

Second this, I don't understand why that GIF even exists, ways to put moving stuff on teh interweb have moved on since the mid 1990s. The actual footage shows pretty warm body language, esp given that neither participant is a natural at it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

Sandpit

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sandpit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...

She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.

Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?

Nope they have lifetime security/protection.

As that report in The Sunday Times said last year, according to MI5 we're more at risk of terrorism from dissident Irish republicans than from Islamist terrorism.

Because the former have more stocks/access to bombs, Semtex, and weapons than the latter.

Let's put Leadsom at NI then, it will annoy the hell out of her.

MTimT

OUT said:

Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
More
LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

How many recording devices can you fit into one room?

In diplomacy, the notetaker produces a "Note for the Record", or record, of a meeting from hand-written notes. It is what other sectors call the minutes.

Scott_P

felix said:

Golly - did he really say that?

In a roundabout way...

He said the market value of the National Grid is a combination of the plant assets, and the license to operate them. Labour would split them, so the grid could be left with deteriorating plant and no license to generate revenue

It's worth watching

Mortimer

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ack.

Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.

Overpromoted much too soon - minor minister/pps yes, cabinet level, gosh no.

JackW

Pulpstar said:

Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win

That's the Welsh LibDem page and a picture of the mother of the lambs to the slaughter in all Welsh constituencies apart from Ceredigion.

Scott_P

This could also be fun

@HTScotPol: Labour councillors defy party to lead Aberdeen with the Tories http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15291055.Labour_councillors_defy_party_to_lead_Aberdeen_with_the_Tories/?ref=twtrec

@JamieRoss7: Dugdale says she will take forward disciplinary action against the Aberdeen Labour group if they enter coalition with the Conservatives.

TheWhiteRabbit

Pulpstar said:

Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win

It's the Lib Dems that will be going out to pasture at this rate...

Sandpit

JackW said:

Pulpstar said:

Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win

That's the Welsh LibDem page and a picture of the mother of the lambs to the slaughter in all Welsh constituencies apart from Ceredigion.

And how safe is Ceredigion, with the students of Aberystwyth and Lampeter home for the summer before polling day?

TGOHF

Is there anyone outside the Hammond residence who would mourn his passing ?

foxinsoxuk

FF43 said:

So May is sacking Hammond on grounds of competence?

The problem is that Hammond's competence shows the others up as less competent.

MarqueeMark

felix said:

Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...

The Labour manifesto got completely overlooked on the tabloid front pages, thanks to the death of Ian Brady.

PaulM

Mortimer said:

SimonStClare said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Ack.

Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.

Overpromoted much too soon - minor minister/pps yes, cabinet level, gosh no.

How about Sajid Javid. He was an investment banker

Scott_P

TGOHF said:

Is there anyone outside the Hammond residence who would mourn his passing ?

@thequentinletts: Sketchers face a dilemma with P Hammond. He is jolly boring yet weirdly ambitious. If sacked he could become deliciously vengeful. Malvolio!

MarkHopkins

Scott_P said:

felix said:

Golly - did he really say that?

In a roundabout way...

He said the market value of the National Grid is a combination of the plant assets, and the license to operate them. Labour would split them, so the grid could be left with deteriorating plant and no license to generate revenue

It's worth watching

So basically just take them without compensation.

That'll be good for pension funds.

tlg86

Pulpstar said:

Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win

Reading the intro it sounds like Farron's message to the troops is "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to save your deposits."

LadyBucket

I suspect Theresa May is spitting with fury at Hammond's comments this morning. He is a shrewd operator and would have known the media would make hay with this. They can't afford any nonsense like this tomorrow when they launch their manifesto.

The thought of Matthew Hancock getting the Chancellor's job, I find appallying, he is just a younger version of George Osborne, complete with that cocky sneer.

I would like to see David Gauke get it, he has been incredibly loyal over the years and is quite a good media performer, if a little bland.

tlg86

Can anyone name the railway station shown on Page 39 of the Lib Dem manifesto?

calum

Scott_P said:

This could also be fun

@HTScotPol: Labour councillors defy party to lead Aberdeen with the Tories http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15291055.Labour_councillors_defy_party_to_lead_Aberdeen_with_the_Tories/?ref=twtrec

@JamieRoss7: Dugdale says she will take forward disciplinary action against the Aberdeen Labour group if they enter coalition with the Conservatives.

FWIW my last council in Stirling was a SLAB/SCON coalition - too many disparate vested interests = paralysis !!

MTimT

Ishmael_Z said:

Nigelb said:

Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

Second this, I don't understand why that GIF even exists, ways to put moving stuff on teh interweb have moved on since the mid 1990s. The actual footage shows pretty warm body language, esp given that neither participant is a natural at it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

Mike is just trolling us all to get a good thread discussion going. There is absolutely nothing in that exchange to indicate a relationship on the rocks, or a lack of confidence on the part of May towards Hammond.

They do both have very geekish laughs and smiles. Quite disarming from such senior figures.