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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Philip Hammond looks as though he’s for the chop following the June 8th landslide

when someone brings up something you did last night pic.twitter.com/4tG2UdUt7B

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    First?
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Second!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    edited May 2017
    Third like Arsenal

    Edit: fake news
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    edited May 2017
    If she did sack him, she better not sack anyone else, I'm tipped Hammond at 25/1 I think as first out of the cabinet back in October.

    More than one sacking and the dead heat rules apply :-(
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    First like Abbot!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,384
    Car crash...

    Popcorn...

    LOL...

    Nice to see the shoe on the other foot.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2017
    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited May 2017
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

    Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

    Well done Boris.

    And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. L, you're rewriting history there. Numbers 10 and 11 detested one another, with Brown finally overthrowing Blair in 2007.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

    Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.
    Yes, and I expect he's also provided free market resistance to some of her ideas in the manifesto too.

    He must stay.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    I think it is her team that has annoyed Phil Hammond.

    Let us not forget her current Joint Chief of Staff was sacked for smearing/leaking against Michael Gove when she was Home Secretary.
    Yes, and I expect he's also provided free market resistance to some of her ideas in the manifesto too.

    He must stay.
    Yup, he's a proper Thatcherite free market economic disciple, he is after all a successful businessman, what would he know.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Number 11

    Unlike Phil Hammond soon ....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
    The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

    What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?
    It could be the correct decision, if there are irreconcilable differences on crucial policy issues. But it would be a risk nonetheless.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,408
    So May is sacking Hammond on grounds of competence?
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. L, you're rewriting history there. Numbers 10 and 11 detested one another, with Brown finally overthrowing Blair in 2007.

    Wasn't there a PMQs where Neil Kinnock said something along the lines of "I'd like to assure the Prime Minister she spoke for the entire nation [pause for effect] when she criticised the Chancellor"?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited May 2017
    Wherefore art thou, MORI??

    I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,384
    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

    Well done Boris.

    And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....
    Er, wrong religion, Mr W!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Sacking a Chancellor is not something to do lightly, especially if it looks as though it's due to policy differences and the markets have faith in the existing Chancellor. That's especially the case now, when there is substantial market and business unease about Brexit. I'd be surprised if she took the risk, unless personal relations have deteriorated to an impossible degree.

    Will you find a post hoc justification for it being the correct decision though ?
    It could be the correct decision, if there are irreconcilable differences on crucial policy issues. But it would be a risk nonetheless.
    That's a yes, then.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 115
    I'm not sure Hammond would have been stood at that podium side by side with May, if he was really up for the chop after the election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

    But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

    But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

    He's a bloody tease. :p
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SandyRentool said:

    JackW said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh God, Boris has managed to upset the Sikhs, in a Sikh temple.

    Well done Boris.

    And what with Boris being a Tory sacred cow too ....
    Er, wrong religion, Mr W!
    Boris not in the Conservative Party religion ?!?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988
    Blue_rog said:

    I wonder if Teresa will go all GOAT and offer a position to some 'dry' Laourites after the election

    No. That might attract one or two but would reinforce the loyalty of the rest to Labour at a time when some might be thinking of splitting.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988
    On topic, I would be very surprised if Hammond is for the chop. I expect that May's comments were the sort consistent with her desire to never give any hostages to fortune and to prevent similar questions being asked of her other cabinet ministers.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

    But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

    He's a bloody tease. :p
    Nah, I asked him, he told me.

    He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

    Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    Nigelb said:

    Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
    The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

    What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

    TM spent five years in a coalition cabinet which benefited hugely from Cameron's reluctance to reshuffle unless absolutely necessary. SoSs had time to master their briefs and civil servants weren't constantly forced to change direction by a new face at the top.
    She chose Hammond in the wake of the referendum as a safe and reassuring pair of hands. Her priorities may now change... and a new resident of No11 would signal that.
    My guess is that she will keep changes to a minimum, but will take the opportunity to refresh the top table by bringing in some new faces, like Raab and Gyimah.
    Anybody know of a next CoE market?
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
    More
    LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

    How many recording devices can you fit into one room?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    SeanT said:

    It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

    First unforced election error by the Tories.

    Second.

    First was fox hunting
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

    First unforced election error by the Tories.

    Second.

    First was fox hunting
    May will do some Fox Hunting if she has any sense after the election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,144
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

    But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

    He's a bloody tease. :p
    Nah, I asked him, he told me.

    He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

    Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.

    What better way to launch the Tory manifesto than with the biggest MORI Tory lead ever recorded? :D:p
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think Ipsos MORI might come out tomorrow now.

    But we are definitely getting an Ipsos MORI this week, unless the Chief Executive of Ipsos MORI was lying to me.

    He's a bloody tease. :p
    Nah, I asked him, he told me.

    He does the polling, it is then up to The Standard when they publish it.

    Usually they publish it on a Wednesday, sometimes on a Thursday, and occasionally on a Friday, but Fridays are very very very rare.
    As rare as a LibDem 'winning here'?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    Yes but they were over policies.

    Not about trying to topple the PM.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    OUT said:

    Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
    More
    LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

    How many recording devices can you fit into one room?

    Record, or recording ? Not the same thing at all.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,770
    May does not like:
    1. People who question her.
    2. Anyone the anti-European press does not like.

    On that basis, Hammond is surely toast. Gove passes test 2, he fails test 1. So Hammond will be replaced by a nodding Brexiteer - or someone who can pretend to be one. The quality of the cabinet will fall even further.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    Yes but they were over policies.

    Not about trying to topple the PM.
    Until Geoffrey Howe did!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    If Theresa May wins the general election, a cabinet reshuffle, if one was to occur, would take place soon after re-entering No10. Somehow I doubt she’ll be as keen to keep hopeless ministers in place for long, as Cameron was prone to do. However I’m not convinced Hammond is for the chop quite yet, based on the somewhat flimsy evidence so far.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    TudorRose said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    Yes but they were over policies.

    Not about trying to topple the PM.
    Until Geoffrey Howe did!
    He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Many more current Labour supporters didn't vote in GE 2015 or EURef compared to the tories.

    http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/

    Yes, the polls ARE overstating Labour.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TudorRose said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    Yes but they were over policies.

    Not about trying to topple the PM.
    Until Geoffrey Howe did!
    He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.
    But he was trying to topple her.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    You must recall that TSE considers Osborne to be the greatest Chancellor in his lifetime.

    Who knew TSE was born in 2010 ? .... A boy genius to match a genius of a Chancellor .... :smiley:
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2017
    Maybe Javid can be considered for Chancellor now Osborne has gone.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    TudorRose said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TudorRose said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    Yes but they were over policies.

    Not about trying to topple the PM.
    Until Geoffrey Howe did!
    He wasn't Chancellor nor looking to replace her.
    But he was trying to topple her.
    The Brexit negotiations will make many members of the government have to 'wrestle with a tragic conflict of loyalties'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    JackW said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think people are reading too much into Mrs May's comments.

    Would be a mistake if she did sack him though.

    I think people forget Cameron and Osborne getting on well was the exception not the norm between The First and Second Lords of the Treasury.

    Yes -- ironically as a result of official CCHQ spin about how Blair and Brown were the first and only Downing Street neighbours to disagree on whether the milk or tea goes in first.
    Nah, Brown was unlike any other Chancellor when it came to undermining his Prime Minister.
    You must not remember the Thatcher years, or the Heath years, or the Macmillan years. Oh, for the innocence of youth.
    You must recall that TSE considers Osborne to be the greatest Chancellor in his lifetime.

    Who knew TSE was born in 2010 ? .... A boy genius to match a genius of a Chancellor .... :smiley:
    Nah the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime was Ken Clarke.

    Said so on the previous thread.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    Did anyone see the Newsnight fluff (I think it was Friday) when they were trying to find her? Apparently they're going to waste even more licence payers' money trying to find other politicians 'in hiding'. Any suggestions?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    I expect he's 'unassailable'.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    nunu said:

    Many more current Labour supporters didn't vote in GE 2015 or EURef compared to the tories.

    http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/

    Yes, the polls ARE overstating Labour.

    If you didn't vote in GE2015 Ref2016, there is no chance you'll vote in this. Unless you're a politically interested 18 year old, but that won't even make the roundings.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    TudorRose said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    Did anyone see the Newsnight fluff (I think it was Friday) when they were trying to find her? Apparently they're going to waste even more licence payers' money trying to find other politicians 'in hiding'. Any suggestions?
    The biased BBC trying to give even more airtime to the Tories.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

    First unforced election error by the Tories.

    Second.

    First was fox hunting
    Nah. After all the horrible interventionist leftwing crap (needed to win over Labour waverers) she had to throw some symbolic red meat to the backbench bloodhounds. Foxhunting was it. It's unlikely to pass.

    Blair of course did the same, but in reverse.

    I doubt it will change more than a few thousand votes. Passionate anti-hunters, the kind of voter where this cause trumps any other consideration, are a very small minority, and most unlikely to vote Tory.
    It won't change any votes, but if they actually try to repeal the ban then it could cause all sorts of trouble. It's an issue with a small but extremely vocal minority of very active opponents, and a public that currently is pretty calm about it all but remains largely opposed on the whole. Potential for it to tarnish May's popularity, and it doesn't really fit with her Mother of the Nation image. Could suck up much oxygen from the next parliament if so.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    A leading Brexiteer to oversee the implementation of special status to keep Northern Ireland in the EU? That would be poetic justice.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Ack.

    Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    You want tapes? Ve have tapes...

    @AFP: #BREAKING Putin 'ready to provide recording' of Lavrov-Trump exchange
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,984
    FPT, another interesting snippet from Comey's Notes..
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/16/us/politics/james-comey-trump-flynn-russia-investigation.html
    Alone in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump began the discussion by condemning leaks to the news media, saying that Mr. Comey should consider putting reporters in prison for publishing classified information, according to one of Mr. Comey’s associates…

    With a complaisant Attorney General, and a cowed FBI, prosecutions under the (WW1) Espionage Act would be entirely possible.
    The subsequent battle in the courts over Ist Amendment right would be very messy.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    I think Hunt does a good job.

    If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Mortimer said:

    Wherefore art thou, MORI??

    I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....

    That was extraordinary!

    What are the numbers for your nationalisation program?

    We are not going to just buy them at market value. We are going to destroy the market value first, so they will be cheaper...
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam

    There it is - in the fiscal costings for the LibDem manifesto: £1 billion raised from "Cannabis Taxation". Too high?

    Seems like one or two thread headers may have been written under the influence.... :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    I think Hunt does a good job.

    If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.
    Not happening. Too much history there.

    Fiona Hill was sacked for smearing/leaking against Gove.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Nah the greatest Chancellor of my lifetime was Ken Clarke.

    Said so on the previous thread.

    You mean that Commie according to @Sean_Fear ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

    First unforced election error by the Tories.

    Second.

    First was fox hunting
    Is that why the Tories have tanked in the polls? Oh....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ack.

    Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

    Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    I think Hunt does a good job.

    If May wanted to really put the cat amongst the pigeons, she could bring back Gove.. as Chancellor.
    But doesn't she have a strong personal dislike of Gove? When she wins this election she will largely have a free hand to choose who she pleases, without worrying about intra-party management. He has some good ideas but I don't see any future for him in government as long as May is PM.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/864812246245011456
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?
    Nope they have lifetime security/protection.

    As that report in The Sunday Times said last year, according to MI5 we're more at risk of terrorism from dissident Irish republicans than from Islamist terrorism.

    Because the former have more stocks/access to bombs, Semtex, and weapons than the latter.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,683
    edited May 2017
    The Rock beats Trump in new 2020 poll
    https://mobile.twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/864495723571818496
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    Paristonda said:

    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    SeanT said:

    It would a silly mistake to sack him. And she should have backed him, now.

    First unforced election error by the Tories.

    Second.

    First was fox hunting
    Nah. After all the horrible interventionist leftwing crap (needed to win over Labour waverers) she had to throw some symbolic red meat to the backbench bloodhounds. Foxhunting was it. It's unlikely to pass.

    Blair of course did the same, but in reverse.

    I doubt it will change more than a few thousand votes. Passionate anti-hunters, the kind of voter where this cause trumps any other consideration, are a very small minority, and most unlikely to vote Tory.
    It won't change any votes, but if they actually try to repeal the ban then it could cause all sorts of trouble. It's an issue with a small but extremely vocal minority of very active opponents, and a public that currently is pretty calm about it all but remains largely opposed on the whole. Potential for it to tarnish May's popularity, and it doesn't really fit with her Mother of the Nation image. Could suck up much oxygen from the next parliament if so.
    The comments on the free vote for repeal were squarely aimed at the Countryside Alliance, which is the closest thing the Tories have to a Union supporting them. They'll bring lots of activists and donations over the next few weeks, and it is an issue they care massively about.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

    She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win :(
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:

    Mortimer said:

    Wherefore art thou, MORI??

    I'm having to watch Barry 'Patronising' Gardiner on DP instead of obsessing about a poll....

    That was extraordinary!

    What are the numbers for your nationalisation program?

    We are not going to just buy them at market value. We are going to destroy the market value first, so they will be cheaper...
    Golly - did he really say that?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    felix said:

    Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...

    Any time in the next 24 weeks ....
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @murdo_fraser: Funny how @NicolaSturgeon didn't take that view in the McGarry or Thomson cases. Is @TasminaSheikh just better conn… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/864783139809501185
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
    The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

    What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

    Second this, I don't understand why that GIF even exists, ways to put moving stuff on teh interweb have moved on since the mid 1990s. The actual footage shows pretty warm body language, esp given that neither participant is a natural at it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Reading the runes the cabinet ministers most at risk on June 9th are Jeremy Hunt, Justine Greening, Liz Truss, and Liam Fox.

    Leadsom. Unless there is another "promotion" that amounts to punishment...
    She'd make a fine Northern Ireland Secretary.
    Does the NI secretary still have to put up with PM-levels of security while in office and for years afterwards, or did they dial that back a bit in recent - more peaceful - times?
    Nope they have lifetime security/protection.

    As that report in The Sunday Times said last year, according to MI5 we're more at risk of terrorism from dissident Irish republicans than from Islamist terrorism.

    Because the former have more stocks/access to bombs, Semtex, and weapons than the latter.
    Let's put Leadsom at NI then, it will annoy the hell out of her. ;)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    OUT said:

    Reuters Top News‏Verified account @Reuters 10m10 minutes ago
    More
    LATEST: Russia's Putin says he can give record of Trump and Lavrov conversation to U.S. congress and senate http://reut.rs/2reyeFv

    How many recording devices can you fit into one room?

    In diplomacy, the notetaker produces a "Note for the Record", or record, of a meeting from hand-written notes. It is what other sectors call the minutes.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    felix said:

    Golly - did he really say that?

    In a roundabout way...

    He said the market value of the National Grid is a combination of the plant assets, and the license to operate them. Labour would split them, so the grid could be left with deteriorating plant and no license to generate revenue

    It's worth watching
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ack.

    Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

    Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.
    Overpromoted much too soon - minor minister/pps yes, cabinet level, gosh no.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Pulpstar said:

    Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

    She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win :(

    That's the Welsh LibDem page and a picture of the mother of the lambs to the slaughter in all Welsh constituencies apart from Ceredigion.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This could also be fun

    @HTScotPol: Labour councillors defy party to lead Aberdeen with the Tories http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15291055.Labour_councillors_defy_party_to_lead_Aberdeen_with_the_Tories/?ref=twtrec

    @JamieRoss7: Dugdale says she will take forward disciplinary action against the Aberdeen Labour group if they enter coalition with the Conservatives.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

    She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win :(

    It's the Lib Dems that will be going out to pasture at this rate...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    JackW said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

    She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win :(

    That's the Welsh LibDem page and a picture of the mother of the lambs to the slaughter in all Welsh constituencies apart from Ceredigion.
    And how safe is Ceredigion, with the students of Aberystwyth and Lampeter home for the summer before polling day?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Is there anyone outside the Hammond residence who would mourn his passing ?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    So May is sacking Hammond on grounds of competence?

    The problem is that Hammond's competence shows the others up as less competent.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    felix said:

    Good to see the LD Manifesto is featuring so prominently everywhere today. I wonder when they'll publish the bits on abortion and gay sex...

    The Labour manifesto got completely overlooked on the tabloid front pages, thanks to the death of Ian Brady.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Mortimer said:

    SimonStClare said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ack.

    Just remembered I tipped Matt Hancock as next Chancellor after Osborne in a thread header.

    Not such a daft guess, he once worked as an economist at the Bank of England.
    Overpromoted much too soon - minor minister/pps yes, cabinet level, gosh no.
    How about Sajid Javid. He was an investment banker
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    TGOHF said:

    Is there anyone outside the Hammond residence who would mourn his passing ?

    @thequentinletts: Sketchers face a dilemma with P Hammond. He is jolly boring yet weirdly ambitious. If sacked he could become deliciously vengeful. Malvolio!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Scott_P said:

    felix said:

    Golly - did he really say that?

    In a roundabout way...

    He said the market value of the National Grid is a combination of the plant assets, and the license to operate them. Labour would split them, so the grid could be left with deteriorating plant and no license to generate revenue

    It's worth watching

    So basically just take them without compensation.

    That'll be good for pension funds.

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Pulpstar said:

    Great picture of a sheep on page 54 of the Lib Dem manifesto.

    She knows her pasture will be under threat from fracking if the Tories win :(

    Reading the intro it sounds like Farron's message to the troops is "Go back to your constituencies and prepare to save your deposits."
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I suspect Theresa May is spitting with fury at Hammond's comments this morning. He is a shrewd operator and would have known the media would make hay with this. They can't afford any nonsense like this tomorrow when they launch their manifesto.

    The thought of Matthew Hancock getting the Chancellor's job, I find appallying, he is just a younger version of George Osborne, complete with that cocky sneer.

    I would like to see David Gauke get it, he has been incredibly loyal over the years and is quite a good media performer, if a little bland.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,283
    Can anyone name the railway station shown on Page 39 of the Lib Dem manifesto?
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Scott_P said:

    This could also be fun

    @HTScotPol: Labour councillors defy party to lead Aberdeen with the Tories http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15291055.Labour_councillors_defy_party_to_lead_Aberdeen_with_the_Tories/?ref=twtrec

    @JamieRoss7: Dugdale says she will take forward disciplinary action against the Aberdeen Labour group if they enter coalition with the Conservatives.

    FWIW my last council in Stirling was a SLAB/SCON coalition - too many disparate vested interests = paralysis !!
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Nigelb said:

    Why that briefest of GIFs in the thread header ?
    The video of the question gives quite a different impression;
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296

    What I see is a PM who is not remarkably quick on her feet sticking relentlessly to her election talking points.

    Second this, I don't understand why that GIF even exists, ways to put moving stuff on teh interweb have moved on since the mid 1990s. The actual footage shows pretty warm body language, esp given that neither participant is a natural at it. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39948296
    Mike is just trolling us all to get a good thread discussion going. There is absolutely nothing in that exchange to indicate a relationship on the rocks, or a lack of confidence on the part of May towards Hammond.

    They do both have very geekish laughs and smiles. Quite disarming from such senior figures.
This discussion has been closed.