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How crap are the Lib Dems? Can't even make any headway against Corbyn. Bring back Clegg that's what I say.0
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Tories up 3%, Labour up 1%, LDs down 3%, UKIP down 2%.chestnut said:ANOTHER POLL
Kantar TNS:
Tory 47 Labour 29 LD 6 UKIP 4
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/political-echo-chamber-fails-to-boost-labour/
EDIT: Also, good to see this referenced:
"It should also be noted that both the Green Party and UKIP are not standing candidates in all constituencies. Not all of their supporters will be able to vote for them on the 8th of June and they are therefore likely to perform less well than our polls currently suggest. These voters are another potential opportunity area for the parties looking to close the gap to the Conservatives."0 -
Pray for Jo Swinson on election night.Slackbladder said:How crap are the Lib Dems? Can't even make any headway against Corbyn. Bring back Clegg that's what I say.
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31.17874%justin124 said:
Miliband managed 31.2% in GB.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Rook, good poll for Labour, but if they get 33% (did Miliband get 29-30%?) then it'd be bloody weird.
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I may have mentioned before I went to see the poet Attila the Stockbroker a couple of years ago. Another agit prop performer which i thought was great back in the day, spitting with fury against capitalism, the system, authority etc....it was embarrassing, like a teenager who never grew up, or changed view on anything with experience over 30 years, Young One's Rik still poeting. Like Corbyn in politics0
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LD actually 8, UKIP actually 6.chestnut said:ANOTHER POLL
Kantar TNS:
Tory 47 Labour 29 LD 6 UKIP 4
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/political-echo-chamber-fails-to-boost-labour/
Con 47, Lab 29, LD 8, UKIP 6, Green 4, SNP 4
Changes:
Con +3, Lab +1, LD -3, UKIP -2, Green -1, SNP 00 -
Mr. Rentool, I honestly can't remember where I heard it. Could've been that
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Just thought about Mike's final tweet above.
This punter says July 1st - perhaps he expects a left wing coup!0 -
That worked out really well in Greece, didn't it?SandyRentool said:With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
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"Nigel wants to go and see Depeche Mode"FattyBolger said:I may have mentioned before I went to see the poet Attila the Stockbroker a couple of years ago. Another agit prop performer which i thought was great back in the day, spitting with fury against capitalism, the system, authority etc....it was embarrassing, like a teenager who never grew up, or changed view on anything with experience over 30 years, Young One's Rik still poeting. Like Corbyn in politics
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My favorite use of graphics to illustrate data of all time:tyson said:
Corbyn and his clique have all the strategic sense of invading Russia during winter....they really are running the hard left into a defeat from which they will not recover.....
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Joseph_Minard#/media/File:Minard.png
Tragedy does not do it justice.0 -
Jim Jiminee's "Do It On Thursday" is not a song about voting in an election.
It is a song about living on benefits, with Thursday being Giro day.
And I like it. (I mean the song, not living on benefits!)0 -
Interesting to see if the Tory manifesto makes the same* mistakeSandpit said:
A few dozen thousand extra civil servants and they'll have no problem coping with everything!FrancisUrquhart said:
Piece of cake in the fantasy land Team Twat live in...Scott_P said:
Well, not the same, but equivalent0 -
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Q8. How do you feelcalum said:
SNP 56% !!DanSmith said:
Usual health warnings about sub samples, but that poll has Labour hitting 50% in London and the other regions pretty much matching the YouGov regional stuff from the other day.Black_Rook said:I don't know if anybody has seen this, but it seems to have slipped out a few hours ago, unnoticed by the usual poll aggregators:
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/864432258295500800
The tables are now up: http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w4tablesforpublication150517.pdf
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
about...Leaving the
European Single Market and
Customs Union
UK
Net support - 41
Net oppose - 34
Scotland
Net support - 22
Net oppose - 53
Meaningless of course.
Probably.
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There is always the George Harrison's 'Taxman'PaulM said:
I have a recollection of Alan Price doing a song for Labour in the 80s/90s where the chorus was "Vote Labour on polling day". May have been to the tune of Fog on the Tyne.FattyBolger said:Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others?
Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England...
Still the best live band i ever saw...0 -
Actual figures are - Con 47 Lab 29 LD 8 Ukip 6 Grn 4 SNP 4MikeL said:
Con 47, Lab 29, LD 6, UKIP 4, Green 4, SNP 4chestnut said:ANOTHER POLL
Kantar TNS:
Tory 47 Labour 29 LD 6 UKIP 4
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/political-echo-chamber-fails-to-boost-labour/
Changes:
Con +3, Lab +1, LD -5, UKIP -4, Green -1, SNP 0
Green looks a bit high!0 -
Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.0 -
You are referring to the fact that his party won the election?Richard_Nabavi said:
That worked out really well in Greece, didn't it?SandyRentool said:With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
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That represents a 5% swing from the LDs to the Tories since 2015......dr_spyn said:0 -
It would be good to see someone with a large majority take a really good look at the too-difficult list though. Cross-party efforts on health and social care, as well as pensions that we discussed earlier, have been pushed back by so many governments - of all colours - that urgent action is now required.tyson said:
They may as well....they'll never get a better chance to put together that fantasy right wing platform they've salivated over for all this time....Sandpit said:
What chance of the Tories' manifesto containing a severe curtailing of the right to strike across critical public infrastructure such as the railways?Morris_Dancer said:Three rail strikes just over a week before the General Election: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-39939773
Corbyn and his clique have all the strategic sense of invading Russia during winter....they really are running the hard left into a defeat from which they will not recover.....
On the subject of Corbyn and his clique, I fear he's not going anywhere, and unless Labour lose half their seats and poll closer to 20% than 30% his supporters in the membership will continue to back the idiot. For the good of government, we need a functioning opposition - hopefully enough of the sensible MPs survive the cull.0 -
Isn't the perfect result high forties and a labour recovery that hastens the inevitable split
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In the last 2 elections with 3 weeks to go the Tories were polling around 3% lower than their final score. Given the scale of the Tory numbers we're seeing that 3% could easily be more like 5%. For me they're probably heading for around the 50 mark, particularly if the press bother to get their teeth into Corbyn.0
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In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.0 -
I Take it Panesbase poll is the best for Labour this time.0
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Am I right in thinking the spread is showing slightly higher numbers for Labour ? Only by 2 or 3.0
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No, for the sale of argument I was accepting your premise.SandyRentool said:
You are referring to the fact that his party won the election?Richard_Nabavi said:
That worked out really well in Greece, didn't it?SandyRentool said:With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
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To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.0
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The 3 polls on the 16th May were 44,46 and 46justin124 said:
In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.0 -
These LD numbers really are shocking.
Seems surprising - with a very left-wing Labour party surely that should be good for the LDs.
Could the LDs actually lose seats overall? On these numbers it's looking possible.0 -
Labour still far too high for my liking...Jezza ain't going nowhere.0
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Also Corbyn outpolling Miliband (2015), Brown (2010), Kinnock (1987) and Foot (1983).Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.0 -
Not a good one though . He could still be condemned for having agreed to an election at a time of maximum disadvantage to the party he pretends to lead.Slackbladder said:To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.
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Certainly, of Left Labour. Left does not stand for political preference.Slackbladder said:To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.
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It certainly raises the chances of a split though doesn't it.surbiton said:
Certainly, of Left Labour. Left does not stand for political preference.Slackbladder said:To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.
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Same as the 2001 one - the final polls by the more reputable firms were basically bang on the nose.Brom said:
The 3 polls on the 16th May were 44,46 and 46justin124 said:
In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.
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Indeed - but in the following week there were several above 50%.Brom said:
The 3 polls on the 16th May were 44,46 and 46justin124 said:
In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.0 -
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
True, but there's no getting round the fact that 1983 was the exception for the Tories in the past 40 years or so in terms of overestimating them.justin124 said:
In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.
While unlike some here, I think the Labour figures ring true from my door-knocking (though Panelbase's 33% is maybe a couple of % higher than I'd predict), there really doesn't seem much reason to think the Tories are going to leak support. Who exactly is going to take votes from them? The only thing I could MAYBE see is some of their 46-48% staying at home if they think the election is a total foregone conclusion, but even that seems doubtful since most of them (bafflingly) seem to be genuinely enthusiastic about Theresa May.0 -
No expense spared in the Tory camp. Give me fifty million or so, and I would soon have the Lib Dems in the lead.MarqueeMark said:
That represents a 5% swing from the LDs to the Tories since 2015......dr_spyn said:0 -
Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
This is not an election for the sensible party. The loons have taken over the asylum on both sides of the house.FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
Can't see UKIP beating 3.5% given the number of seats they are standing in.isam said:
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Today`s Conservative Party is the UK equivalent of Trump. No wonder May got on so well with him.FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
On IHT, from looking at the separate Labour tax / spend document it looks as if they aren't scrapping the double relief for couples - ie ability for spouse to use partner's allowance if not used on first death.
So couples can still leave £650k.
They are just dropping the extra "homes allowance" which came in last month - £100k (£200k for couples).0 -
Sorry mate, no you wouldn't.PClipp said:
No expense spared in the Tory camp. Give me fifty million or so, and I would soon have the Lib Dems in the lead.MarqueeMark said:
That represents a 5% swing from the LDs to the Tories since 2015......dr_spyn said:
Not until you stop trying to be all things to all men. "Eurosceptic" Farron my arse. Trying to sell that pig in a poke would be £50 million down the drain.
But I like how your bile is so much on public display. (Possibly another reason voters find your party so unpleasant.)0 -
UKIP is actually on 6 - earlier post contained an error.isam said:
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
Are they adjusting for the number of seats you can actually vote UKIP? Ditto the Greens.isam said:
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
Bit ambiguous, though, isn't it? Is it those, like you, who have left Labour, or is it the Labour who are left?surbiton said:
Certainly, of Left Labour. Left does not stand for political preference.Slackbladder said:To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.
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SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said:
That will be Mr "Eurosceptic" Farron to you. And he has tried that already. With comedy results....0 -
The thing with the LibDems is that, to the extent that ultra-Remain was a viable strategy at all, Farron is completely the wrong front-man for it.
How much overlap is there between huge EU supporters, and people who think gay sex is sinful? Plus I have a suspicion snobbery might be playing a bit of a part -- the big pro-EU heartland in London and the Home Counties might not culturally feel that drawn to a Northern provincial lad like Farron.
Clegg, for all his baggage, would've been a better fit for an ultra-Remain election campaign.0 -
In fact, put policies aside, just on personalities/backgrounds alone I wonder if Labour and LibDems would both be doing better if they swapped leaders, given where the parties are needing to shore up support in this election...0
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what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got startedMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
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Swapped leaders for what? Farmyard animals? Just about anything would look like an improvement at this point.Danny565 said:In fact, put policies aside, just on personalities/backgrounds alone I wonder if Labour and LibDems would both be doing better if they swapped leaders, given where the parties are needing to shore up support in this election...
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They aren't adjusting in their headline numbers, but making the caveat in the small print.DavidL said:
Are they adjusting for the number of seats you can actually vote UKIP? Ditto the Greens.isam said:
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
When Rob updates his graph for today's two polls his latest average point (representing the 7 polls with end dates on or since 12 May) will be:
Con 47.7, Lab 30.4, LD 8.6, UKIP 4.9
Con Lead 17.3
Con lead the previous week was 17.4.0 -
With each other - Farron for Labour, Corbyn for the LibDems.Animal_pb said:
Swapped leaders for what? Farmyard animals? Just about anything would look like an improvement at this point.Danny565 said:In fact, put policies aside, just on personalities/backgrounds alone I wonder if Labour and LibDems would both be doing better if they swapped leaders, given where the parties are needing to shore up support in this election...
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Tomorow's YouGov might be. As I posted earlier, I took this survey and they asked me to choose between the actual candidates standing in my constituency.DavidL said:
Are they adjusting for the number of seats you can actually vote UKIP? Ditto the Greens.isam said:
Kippers will surely fall a lot further than 8? That seems almost 100% too highMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
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Yes, in 1983 there was a dramatic shift during the last few weeks before polling day. The LibDems hope is that history can repeat itselfjustin124 said:
In 1983 some polls had the Tories on 51%/52% just over two and a half weeks before polling day. They ended up on 43.5%Danny565 said:
May getting a bigger voteshare than Thatcher or Blair pretty much nailed on now, I think.MikeL said:Kantar was previously the only pollster with Con below 45 (they were 44).
Now every single pollster has Con on at least 46.
Three weeks before the 1997 election some polls were giving Labour 53% - 55%.0 -
Not 100% sure about Ceredigion tbh.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I just came in from afternoon canvasing in my old patch in Bramcote, a wealthy, traditionally LibDem borough ward. All the usual trends visible (except UKIP, who don't appear much there), but what struck me was that traditional LibDem voters were nearly all voting Tory or Labour, in equal proportions (no real sign of a progressive alliance). That sense of a two-party duel was evident among don't knows too - people apparently genuinely wavering between Labour and Tory and not considering anyone else.Danny565 said:In fact, put policies aside, just on personalities/backgrounds alone I wonder if Labour and LibDems would both be doing better if they swapped leaders, given where the parties are needing to shore up support in this election...
The trawl did include one couple who had told us as the locals that they'd not vote Labour in the General because of Corbyn, but whom the manifesto this morning had won over. Not mentioned by anyone else.0 -
Well, that would get David Ward back in the Lib Dems.Danny565 said:
With each other - Farron for Labour, Corbyn for the LibDems.Animal_pb said:
Swapped leaders for what? Farmyard animals? Just about anything would look like an improvement at this point.Danny565 said:In fact, put policies aside, just on personalities/backgrounds alone I wonder if Labour and LibDems would both be doing better if they swapped leaders, given where the parties are needing to shore up support in this election...
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Lib Dems won't need a taxi , the way they are going a tandem will do the trick!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
I'd say that factoring in that UKIP and the Greens are not standing in many places, and assuming that their voters split this way when they discover this in the polling booth (UKIP go +2 con, +1 lab, and Green go + 2 lab) that we are about here at the moment.
Con 49, Lab 32, LD 8, UKIP 3, Green 2
Baxtered - Con majority 1340 -
Mr. W, or a pogo stick.
Mr. L, indeed, it'd be good if the Lib Dems were doing rather better.
Rather odd writing that.0 -
It really pi88es you that May is so popular doesn't it? What a child you arePClipp said:
Today`s Conservative Party is the UK equivalent of Trump. No wonder May got on so well with him.FrancisUrquhart said:
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.SimonStClare said:
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
Hard to argue with that....Disraeli said:I'd say that factoring in that UKIP and the Greens are not standing in many places, and assuming that their voters split this way when they discover this in the polling booth (UKIP go +2 con, +1 lab, and Green go + 2 lab) that we are about here at the moment.
Con 49, Lab 32, LD 8, UKIP 3, Green 2
Baxtered - Con majority 1340 -
Thats utterly illogical though. You're never going to get two main parties of the left. There's only ever going to be room for one.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
Maybe but they are not going to. And there is a carcase on the table. Time to eat.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
In the country!NickPalmer said:The trawl did include one couple who had told us as the locals that they'd not vote Labour in the General because of Corbyn, but whom the manifesto this morning had won over. Not mentioned by anyone else.
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I'm inclined to think that what's left to squeeze will probably go Tory if push comes to shove based on the expressed leadership preferences.MikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.0 -
no mystery.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
1. They're hypocrites about just about everything.
2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice.
3. they don't accept the referendum result.
4. They're crap.0 -
Westmorland isn't safe at all.kjohnw said:
Lib Dems won't need a taxi , the way they are going a tandem will do the trick!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Spot on. And this is one GE where that strategy is barmy. They should have known from last time and May warned them again 3 weeks ago - strong and stable v coalition of chaos. Simples.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
Carmichael best get back in...
He could be leader by default !0 -
You really wonder why he bothers after last time.MarqueeMark said:
In the country!NickPalmer said:The trawl did include one couple who had told us as the locals that they'd not vote Labour in the General because of Corbyn, but whom the manifesto this morning had won over. Not mentioned by anyone else.
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Completely bonkers from you, mate. That is not our strategy. We are not lining up with Labour. We are not lining up with the Tories. End of.felix said:
Spot on. And this is one GE where that strategy is barmy. They should have known from last time and May warned them again 3 weeks ago - strong and stable v coalition of chaos. Simples.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
Alice Cooper 'I want to be elected'FattyBolger said:Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others?
Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England...
Still the best live band i ever saw...0 -
Taking out the '2016 did not votes' in the TNS gives Tory 51 Lab 27.
Panelbase is 47-32 (with DNVs removed) but these are Panelbase's last two efforts:
2015 Westminster Lab 33 Con 31 ... result 31-37 ... swing to Con 4%
2016 Holyrood:.... SNP 49 Con 17 ... result 46.5:22 .... swing to Con 3.75%
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He will do worse than Miliband in seats won even if he keeps the same voteshare because the Tory vote is up 10% due to UKIP's collapseSlackbladder said:To be fair IF, and i mean if, Corbyn does better than Miliband, he at least has a claim to remain as leader.
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Slackbladder said:
Thats utterly illogical though. You're never going to get two main parties of the left. There's only ever going to be room for one.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
Yes, it's as nuts as the 2005 "decapitation" strategy when they should have been setting up for an attack on Labour seats in 2010.DavidL said:
Maybe but they are not going to. And there is a carcase on the table. Time to eat.ThreeQuidder said:
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.0 -
SCon Subsample anti-surge non-klaxon alert.Black_Rook said:I don't know if anybody has seen this, but it seems to have slipped out a few hours ago, unnoticed by the usual poll aggregators:
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/864432258295500800
The tables are now up: http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w4tablesforpublication150517.pdf
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.0 -
Democratic primary voters will almost certainly pick a left liberal radical in 2020 whether Sanders or Warren or another, they had their fill in 2016 of having an 'electable' centrist who did not really represent the agenda they wanted and still managed to lose to Trump-Pence anywayParistonda said:
Worth remembering that while Pence may be more right wing, he is also more conventional as an opponent. He's just your bog standard god'n'guns republican. The Democrats know how to beat people like Pence, I think he would prove a much easier 2020 opponent than Trump will. Of course whether they can beat Trump or Pence will also depend on who they choose to run, and they will probably fuck it up.rkrkrk said:
Agree on first sentence.AlsoIndigo said:
They are still not going to hand the Democrats the electoral golddust of an impeached Republican President. The Democrats for similar reasons are going to want 4 years of Trump instead of 4 years of Pence, Pence is much more effective, much more right wing, and in 4 years the public will have forgotten the Keystone Kops President and will vote for Pence (especially if as expected the Democrats select some loony tunes left-winger)FF43 said:The other thing to bear in mind with Trump is that he was elected DESPITE the efforts of the GOP establishment. A number don't like him and don't think they owe him any favours.
Second sentence is totally contradictory and disagree.
No democrat is going to defend Trump from impeachment regardless of what they think about Pence.0 -
What is a 2016 did not vote?chestnut said:Taking out the '2016 did not votes' in the TNS gives Tory 51 Lab 27.
Panelbase is 47-32 (with DNVs removed) but these are Panelbase's last two efforts:
2015 Westminster Lab 33 Con 31 ... result 31-37 ... swing to Con 4%
2016 Holyrood:.... SNP 49 Con 17 ... result 46.5:22 .... swing to Con 3.75%
Did not vote in EU ref?
Do you mean did not vote at 2015 GE?0 -
I was at Norwich School in the 60'sdyedwoolie said:Might I remind you Norfolk knockers that alumni of my Alma mater, Norwich School, include three men who might just be the earthly trinity incarnate. Admiral Lord Nelson, Lord Ashcroft and DJ Tim Westwood.
I rest my case
The student presumably at the' university of easy access' was from outside Norfolk I imagine, and therefore 'normal from elsewhere'
An easy way to check is size and number of our Norfolk grown extremities – they are always large and for comparison the men from the county below us are found to very small but make up for it with odd familial relationships.
Labour canvassers in large numbers out today on doorsteps round inner city houses – no mention of the leader but around town the general feeling is that Clive Lewis is on to increase his majority sweeping up much of the Green vote (6749 – 2015) and some of the Lib Dem vote (6607 – 2017) Majority 2015 - 76540 -
If LD, UKIP and Green all do very badly then there could well be implications for the next GE in terms of media coverage etc.0
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I was there in the 80s before they went all hippy and let girls in.7fingers said:
I was at Norwich School in the 60'sdyedwoolie said:Might I remind you Norfolk knockers that alumni of my Alma mater, Norwich School, include three men who might just be the earthly trinity incarnate. Admiral Lord Nelson, Lord Ashcroft and DJ Tim Westwood.
I rest my case
The student presumably at the' university of easy access' was from outside Norfolk I imagine, and therefore 'normal from elsewhere'
An easy way to check is size and number of our Norfolk grown extremities – they are always large and for comparison the men from the county below us are found to very small but make up for it with odd familial relationships.
Labour canvassers in large numbers out today on doorsteps round inner city houses – no mention of the leader but around town the general feeling is that Clive Lewis is on to increase his majority sweeping up much of the Green vote (6749 – 2015) and some of the Lib Dem vote (6607 – 2017) Majority 2015 - 7654
Yes, agree on Clive Lewis, he will be (I think) the safest Labour seat outside London in the line south of the Severn-wash.0 -
Going in for the kill on Corbyn now does start to feel a little like kicking the man when he's down, a bit excessive and cruel.kjohnw said:
what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got startedMikeL said:Question is what happens next.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
Then I remember that 90% of the population don't know he supported the IRA, Hamas and worked for Iranian stateTV. I wonder who's going to get the job of being Mr Nasty on every radio and TV show one day next week?0 -
I think the Klaxon has already run out of batteries !Alistair said:
SCon Subsample anti-surge non-klaxon alert.Black_Rook said:I don't know if anybody has seen this, but it seems to have slipped out a few hours ago, unnoticed by the usual poll aggregators:
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/864432258295500800
The tables are now up: http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w4tablesforpublication150517.pdf
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.0 -
felix said:
no mystery.DavidL said:The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
1. They're hypocrites about just about everything.
2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice.
3. they don't accept the referendum result.
4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result. The fact that you don't agree with us doesn't give you the right to bully us into submission.
Can you tell I'm just a teensie weensie bit pissed off with the arrogance of Leavers, who think that they have the right to control what other people think?
We live in a democracy in which people are allowed to disagree.0
