I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
No interesting minor parties standing in your patch even?
No, that's my lot.
Please just vote. That man HAS to go below 30% or he wont quit.
Can someone explain something to this simple soul.
Neither Labour nor Tories are offering to reverse or ignore the referendum result. The LDs are proposing to reverse it, but will be in no position to do so (even if A509 can be revoked - can it?).
Whatever your previous affiliation, switching your vote in this way will not alter the outcome of the referendum. For a Remainer to go from Con to LD is a long journey ideologically and a futile one.
Hence almost nobody will. Those to whom this is the only issue (UKIP) will avoid voting LibDem but will otherwise return to their pre-UKIP allegiance. At the moment this sends most UKIP support back to CON.
So how can a seat's Leave / Remain MP/challenger/party/electorate possibly make any difference anywhere? Isn't it just a big red herring?
Labour's position on Brexit is unclear.
They are saying they will not accept 'no deal' but that essentially means they are not accepting Brexit because there has to be a willingness to walk away with WTO terms.
The 'leave' vote itself symbolises more than just article 50 being triggered. It means that control of borders, laws, money etc must return to Britain. Any party that is too vague or unconvincing on this is likely to get nowhere with the 52%.
Remainers seem to split two ways. One group accept the result and are looking for the smoothest implementation of the decision in line with it's spirit. The other group are 'No Surrender' ultras.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Don't want to tell you what to do, but I think the LDs would probably be the best option from what you've written.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
You will vote Conservative: that's an order.
Elections don't work that way any more.
In 1874, a rather OTT candidate getting nearly as hysterical as a Labour supporter on these threads, gave the following order in the first election held under secret ballot:
'Electors of Wareham! Somebody has been spreading the rumour that I wish you to vote according to your conscience. This is a dastardly lie, calculated to injure me. I wish and intend that you should all vote for me.'
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
You will vote Conservative: that's an order.
I will vote Tory in Hallam.
PS - Congratulations on your result in the locals.
Many thanks and the lanslide majority exceeded even our wildest expectations - we weren't even sure we'd hold the seat! Skived off last week, but have now started in earnest. Will be helping in Kingston and Surbiton for the admirable James Berry.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
You will vote Conservative: that's an order.
I will vote Tory in Hallam.
PS - Congratulations on your result in the locals.
Many thanks and the lanslide majority exceeded even our wildest expectations - we weren't even sure we'd hold the seat! Skived off last week, but have now started in earnest. Will be helping in Kingston and Surbiton for the admirable James Berry.
Well now that you're on the case, I consider Mr Berry nailed on to defeat the Yellow Peril.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you did your best to stop it.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
A laughable comment seeing as he is in Thornberry's seat, she's safe as houses with how this campaign has unfolded.
Can I urge you to vote Lib Dem despite Tim Farron's best efforts ?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
I think there's been a phoney war so far between reds and yellows, and (against expectations) Corbyn's won it. At just the right moment, he's come up with a bunch of policies which - although entirely of the 'moon on a stick' variety - are easily reportable, digestable and shareable from The Canary. He's also managed a couple of smiling responses to questions about who puts the bins out chez Corbyn etc, instead of looking at the reporter like he trod in him/her on the street.
Meanwhile, Farron was sidelined by a fortnight arguing about gay sex, and still pretending that Brexit can be stopped. Or perhaps not, but y'know, it's not great .
I'm a bit surprised that neither of them have adopted a "yeah, we get that Brexit's happening, but May will kill the economy with her plan - we must fight to stay in the single market just like Farage, Hannan and Paterson said we should". I don't think either of them have been very clear on that.
My reading so far - when we see Labour 33% in a VI poll and UKIP/LD/Green in single figures - is that Labour have added some none-of-the-above vote to their core (when "the above" consists of just Tories!)
But as others have said, Lynton Crosby is going to get into gear in the next ten days and grind them into dust. Had Lab been floundering in the low 20s, they might not have bothered in order to look statesmanlike and magnanimous in crushing victory. But if a majority of less than about 70 is possible, he'll get a big bucket of IRA/Hamas-flavoured crap dumped on him, lapped up by the tabloids (etc). And then a fair chunk of the floating "we just want a functioning government" vote probably ends up with May by default.
I wasn't sure at the start what TMay was playing at... but she's got in while the LibDems still have coalition/Remain issues and before Labour's finished its sums. Unless Lab 33pc really is a trend, it still looks like a very safe bet of hers.
I wonder if we're overcompensating from last time and being way too pessimistic on the Lib Dems. And I'm someone on Clegg & Farron to lose.
The leaflets they put around might have some effect. We have seen the two Leeds ones on here today - repellant to anyone who doesn't holiday in Brussels at least twice a month. And I have received one ( national ??? ) with two ( to me ) creepy hands. As someone who voted Leave and would never vote LD I know I'm not the target.
It seems to me, and has done since the Windermere byelection last October that the LD senior activists hate Brexit and they all agree they hate Brexit and they tell the junior activists that they hate Brexit and so they design the leaflets and do all the campaigning because everyone hates Brexit and like the Corbyn punter everything is going to come out alright because everyone hates Brexit.
Another controversial question - not entirely tongue in cheek. Labour will survive Corbyn but with the Lib Dems survive Farron ?
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Don't want to tell you what to do, but I think the LDs would probably be the best option from what you've written.
Possibly tactical voting in such places as Bristol W, Norwich S or Selly Oak.
No possibility of JC=PM, so not relevant whether you like him.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
You will vote Conservative: that's an order.
I will vote Tory in Hallam.
PS - Congratulations on your result in the locals.
Many thanks and the lanslide majority exceeded even our wildest expectations - we weren't even sure we'd hold the seat! Skived off last week, but have now started in earnest. Will be helping in Kingston and Surbiton for the admirable James Berry.
Well now that you're on the case, I consider Mr Berry nailed on to defeat the Yellow Peril.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Maybe a vote swap? Find a Labour remainer in Twickenham or Kingston. Either way you at least want to distance yourself from May's omnishambles.
The problem with the Lib Dems harping on about Brexit is that it goes against British sense of fair play to try to immediately upend the results. Rightly or wrongly we had a vote and the result is accepted by most losers as well as winners.
Trying to make everything be about Brexit rather than domestic policies and trying to be "the party of the 48" means instead they look like sore losers holding their breath until the result gets upended. It is adolescent and it is not winning respect.
I would have said less that it's unclear than that it is ummm, diverse. Quite a large number, e.g. Lewis, are unequivocally 'the verdict was wrong and must be reversed so we can continue to have lots of cheap foreign labour.' A number of others including Burnham appear to think, 'well, we don't like this but now we must do as we're told by the voters.' Corbyn and his key aides think, 'we're very happy about this but have to pretend otherwise to keep our friends happy as otherwise they will despise us and we can't bear that.' And a fourth, very small faction, the likes of Hoey, are quite content and will go with it. The 'message' is therefore confusing to those who think of Labour as homogenous, not helped by the weakness and incompetence of the leadership and the general lack of trust on all sides.
It's ironic that we always talked about Tory splits on the EU, yet how many unabashed Remainers do they have left? Two?
The classified intelligence that President Trump disclosed in a meeting last week with Russian officials at the White House was provided by Israel, according to a current and a former American official familiar with how the United States obtained the information. The revelation adds a potential diplomatic complication to the episode.
Israel is one of the United States’ most important allies and a major intelligence collector in the Middle East. The revelation that Mr. Trump boasted about some of Israel’s most sensitive information to the Russians could damage the relationship between the two countries. It also raises the possibility that the information could be passed to Iran, Russia’s close ally and Israel’s main threat in the Middle East.
The classified intelligence that President Trump disclosed in a meeting last week with Russian officials at the White House was provided by Israel, according to a current and a former American official familiar with how the United States obtained the information. The revelation adds a potential diplomatic complication to the episode.
Israel is one of the United States’ most important allies and a major intelligence collector in the Middle East. The revelation that Mr. Trump boasted about some of Israel’s most sensitive information to the Russians could damage the relationship between the two countries. It also raises the possibility that the information could be passed to Iran, Russia’s close ally and Israel’s main threat in the Middle East.
Might he also have put Israeli Intelligence lives at risk?
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
Someone quite reliable says Clegg fancies a return to the front line, so my sense is that he'll stand, but I don't think he'll win. So I am trying to figure out what bet pays out in that event. In effect one can only bet on him not winning I suppose?
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
But be aware that if Farron stays on the market will stay open.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Good Emily Thornberry has impressed me with her interviews especially against Fallon.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
But be aware that if Farron stays on the market will stay open.
Lol - This isn't the Labour party. I'm thinking he'll be off pdq after the election right now.
If Corbyn goes, does McCluskey? After all, he's the reason Miliband then Corbyn won at all, and a massive part of the problem. Leaving aside all the issues of corruption and maladministration that have dogged him for years.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Good Emily Thornberry has impressed me with her interviews especially against Fallon.
Yeah, she's so good she has no idea who the French relevant minister is.
Miss Forethought, not a yellow myself, but it's worth considering both the electorate for such a contest *and* who might be left for the Lib Dems after the election. I wouldn't be surprised if Clegg became leader again.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
But be aware that if Farron stays on the market will stay open.
Lol - This isn't the Labour party. I'm thinking he'll be off pdq after the election right now.
Prior to Clegg the last Liberal leader to resign directly due to an election result was Archibald Sinclair in 1945 - because he lost his seat. Of his successors, Davies and Grimond had both decided to quit before the election was called, Thorpe survived three poor elections before 'bunnies can (and will) go to France,' Steel retired on the merger, Ashdown had life tenure despite his well-publicised womanising, Kennedy was removed for alcoholism and Campbell for uselessness.
Regicide is not big in the Liberal DNA. They couldn't even get rid of Asquith for 11 years after 1915!
Just had a nibble on Corbyn to be Labour Leader on 1 Jan, 9/4 with PP. I imagine his supporters in PLP and the membership will finally give him the heave-ho on June 9th, but I thought that several times in the last two years too. And the thing that has kept his waverers on board so far, that another Corbynite may not make the ballot paper, will probably still be true.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Vote for whoever is best placed to beat the Tory. In five years you'll want to look back and say you dud your best to stop it.
I'm in Emily Thornberry's constituency. Beating the Tory is not a consideration. And in any case, I could not vote for a party led by Jeremy Corbyn.
Good Emily Thornberry has impressed me with her interviews especially against Fallon.
Yeah, she's so good she has no idea who the French relevant minister is.
I'm more concerned about her repeated lie that she was a colonel in the Army. Surely that alone, as a criminal act, rules her out of high office?
One where Labour might be able to hold against the general tide:
Coventry South @ 11-4
It's a mix of strong Tory and middle class Labour but includes a ward (St Michaels) that is more like inner London in character. Quite a few students there too, and the seat voted (Just) to remain by Hanretty.
Me and another (Tory) friend who is also from the seat have had a think about this and reckon Labour might just hang on here.
I'd love to lay the 1-80 in Coventry North East mind, there'll be a huge Tory swing there but it probably won't be enough.
Cov Northwest is definitely heading Tory.
Note Coventry somehow voted for Sion Simon in the mayoralty !
OT. I've been trying to avoid Ian Brady all day but it's impossible. They're creating a cottage industry around him. I heard a man describe how aged seven Myra Hindley invited him in for a 'jam butty'.
Ian Brady came out of the kitchen and he and Hindley started arguing so he escaped through a window. He's written a book about it called 'A Slice of Bread and Jam'.
If he'd stayed for a three course dinner he could have written a trilogy
If anything that post is uncharacteristically bullish on Labour's prospects! As I have said before, the West Bromwich seats are both dicey - Sandwell voted 66% leave and although Watson has a narrow absolute majority the combined Con/UKIP vote isn't more than about 5% behind.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
But be aware that if Farron stays on the market will stay open.
Lol - This isn't the Labour party. I'm thinking he'll be off pdq after the election right now.
Prior to Clegg the last Liberal leader to resign directly due to an election result was Archibald Sinclair in 1945 - because he lost his seat. Of his successors, Davies and Grimond had both decided to quit before the election was called, Thorpe survived three poor elections before 'bunnies can (and will) go to France,' Steel retired on the merger, Ashdown had life tenure despite his well-publicised womanising, Kennedy was removed for alcoholism and Campbell for uselessness.
Regicide is not big in the Liberal DNA. They couldn't even get rid of Asquith for 11 years after 1915!
Most Lib Dem activists will be happy with 20 seats. The problem is the new members who will not.
As a conservative voter, I think the GE is going to be much closer that the polls state. I sense things are beginning to turn and as I said a few days ago, the conservatives need to up their game before it gets away from them.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
But be aware that if Farron stays on the market will stay open.
Lol - This isn't the Labour party. I'm thinking he'll be off pdq after the election right now.
Prior to Clegg the last Liberal leader to resign directly due to an election result was Archibald Sinclair in 1945 - because he lost his seat. Of his successors, Davies and Grimond had both decided to quit before the election was called, Thorpe survived three poor elections before 'bunnies can (and will) go to France,' Steel retired on the merger, Ashdown had life tenure despite his well-publicised womanising, Kennedy was removed for alcoholism and Campbell for uselessness.
Regicide is not big in the Liberal DNA. They couldn't even get rid of Asquith for 11 years after 1915!
Most Lib Dem activists will be happy with 20 seats. The problem is the new members who will not.
So they've been the official opposition for 7 years and losing 14% of their seats is deemed a successful outcome? good grief.
Yes very true just checked York Central surprised Labour are 1/3 and the Conservatives 9/4 .The Tories used to win this seat in the 80s.
Substantial boundary changes since the 80s though. , The safely Tory York Outer seat which was created picks up some areas that used to be in the old York seat.
I've just heard a UKIP voter on LBC say he is now voting Labour!!!!!!!
Correction.
You have just heard somebody who claims he was a UKIP voter say he is now voting Labour.
Getting Labour loyalists to phone in posing as members of other parties and 'changing their minds' to vote Labour live on air was a favourite tactic of the left in the 1983 and 1987 elections. They wheeled it out when things were absolutely desperate (usually about day 3 of the campaign).
I think we should treat such things with due scepticism.
Coventry Northwest, 1-2 is a big price on the Tories. The swing needed is slightly larger than Coventry south but it is much more white working class.
I have gone £9 @ 11-4 Coventry South Labour £50 @ 1-2 Coventry Northwest Tories.
As I said in a previous thread, Coventry North West is also slowly turning into a sort-of Solihull overspill. They have and are building a lot of new houses there with a significant amount being bought by former residents of Solihull. My Father is one of them.
Coventry Northwest, 1-2 is a big price on the Tories. The swing needed is slightly larger than Coventry south but it is much more white working class.
I have gone £9 @ 11-4 Coventry South Labour £50 @ 1-2 Coventry Northwest Tories.
As I said in a previous thread, Coventry North West is also slowly turning into a sort-of Solihull overspill. They have and are building a lot of new houses there with a significant amount being bought by former residents of Solihull. My Father is one of them.
Hanretty estimates:
Coventry North East 57.8% Coventry North West 58.4% Coventry South 50.4%
Cov South has St Michaels Ward which will be Corbyn central too.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
You could LAY him on the existing Betfair LibDem Next Leader Market and you would then win should he either (a) decide not stand or (b) stand in the contest and lose. I'm not sure what your objective is here.
Someone quite reliable says Clegg fancies a return to the front line, so my sense is that he'll stand, but I don't think he'll win. So I am trying to figure out what bet pays out in that event. In effect one can only bet on him not winning I suppose?
Hi
Because it's a Betfair Exchange market, you can bet on either side, him winning or losing.
Right now you can get odds of 10.0 against him winning.
If you are confident he will stand, you could bet on him winning at those odds.
After the election, if he stands, you might expects those odds to fall. At that point you could bet against him at shorter odds, then you win whether he wins or not.
I've just heard a UKIP voter on LBC say he is now voting Labour!!!!!!!
Correction.
You have just heard somebody who claims he was a UKIP voter say he is now voting Labour.
Getting Labour loyalists to phone in posing as members of other parties and 'changing their minds' to vote Labour live on air was a favourite tactic of the left in the 1983 and 1987 elections. They wheeled it out when things were absolutely desperate (usually about day 3 of the campaign).
I think we should treat such things with due scepticism.
I listen to LBC quite a lot ; there is clearly a "Cybernat" thing going on, where they are ringing in saying how fabulous Labour is and/or complaining about the appalling bias.
Many also claim they were staunch Tories (or UKIP - I heard that one as well !!) in 2015 but somehow are magical Corbyn voters now. So in 2 years someone has gone from pretty right wing to hard left ......
This is a common lie, oddly many of these supposed ex Tories/Kippers don't seem to know very much about the party, but are well acquainted with the Labour version of what the party is like.
It is remarkable the number of people convinced "Jeremy will win". AFAICS (apart from the Kings Lynn fellow) none of them are taking the opportunity to make a fortune on the spread betting markets.
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
As a conservative voter, I think the GE is going to be much closer that the polls state. I sense things are beginning to turn and as I said a few days ago, the conservatives need to up their game before it gets away from them.
I wouldn't get nervous just yet. Based on the polling averages, Labour is only just creeping up towards its 2015 result, and the Conservative lead has extended by a little over 10% relative to that election (and I'm still not convinced that the pollsters aren't over-counting Labour and under-counting the Lib Dems, either.) Beyond that, the Conservatives have three weeks left in which to publish a properly-costed manifesto, pull Labour's shopping list of expensive sweeties apart, and maul the Labour leadership team for their dodgy pasts.
In short, the short campaign's really only just getting started.
I have been crunching the numbers, and have compiled week-by-week averages for GB-wide polls, stretching back to the start of March (for the first half of this period, I've aggregated two weeks' worth of data due to a relative lack of surveys.) The date of each poll is taken as the date on which fieldwork for it ended. The values are as follows; changes shown are relative to the baseline, taken as the fortnight 28 Feb - 13 Mar...
28 Feb - 13 Mar (2 weeks) Mean Con lead: 17.3% Con 43.3% Lab 26.0% Lib Dem 9.7% Ukip 11.3% Green 4.0%
14 Mar - 27 Mar (2 weeks) Mean Con lead: 15.7% (-1.6) Con 42.5% (-0.8) Lab 26.8% (+0.8) Lib Dem 10.1% (+0.4) Ukip 10.3% (-1.0) Green 3.8% (-0.2)
28 Mar - 10 Apr (2 weeks) Mean Con lead: 17.5% (+0.2) Con 42.5% (-0.8) Lab 25.0% (-1.0) Lib Dem 11.0% (+1.3) Ukip 11.0% (-0.3) Green 3.5% (-0.5)
11 Apr - 17 Apr Mean Con lead: 17.2% (-0.1) Con 43.0% (-0.3) Lab 25.8% (-0.2) Lib Dem 10.0% (+0.3) Ukip 11.0% (-0.3) Green 4.3% (+0.3)
18 Apr - 24 Apr *Theresa May announced her decision to seek a dissolution on 18 April* Mean Con lead: 20.4% (+3.1) Con 46.7% (+3.4) Lab 26.3% (+0.3) Lib Dem 10.7% (+1.0) Ukip 7.3% (-4.0) *Ukip collapses relative to the previous week, and has been in continuous decline since* Green 3.2% (-0.8)
25 Apr - 1 May Mean Con lead: 16.5% (-0.8) Con 45.7% (+2.4) Lab 29.2% (+3.2) *Labour jumps 3pts on the previous week* Lib Dem 10.2% (+0.5) *The Liberal Democrats begin to decline at this point in the campaign, and have been in continuous decline since* Ukip 6.7% (-4.6) Green 2.7% (-1.3)
2 May - 8 May *The local elections were held on 4 May* Mean Con lead: 18.3% (+1.0) Con 46.8% (+3.5) *The Conservatives polled at least 46% in every survey bar one (44%) during this period* Lab 28.5% (+2.5) Lib Dem 9.5% (-0.2) Ukip 6.5% (-4.8) Green 3.2% (-0.8)
9 May - 15 May Mean Con lead: 16.8% (-0.5) Con 47.4% (+4.1) *The Conservatives polled at least 46% in every survey during this period* Lab 30.6% (+4.6) *Labour polls 33%, its best score since November; both Labour and the Conservatives record their best weekly averages of the campaign so far* Lib Dem 8.7% (-1.0) Ukip 5.1% (-6.2) Green 2.6% (-1.4) *The Lib Dems, Ukip and the Greens all record their lowest weekly averages of the campaign so far*
In short since the pre-election period both Labour and the Conservatives have gained roughly equal shares of the electorate, at the expense of all the other parties. Therefore, although Labour's position has improved significantly, it has made virtually no impression on the Conservative lead at all so far.
Changes for 9 May - 15 May relative to GE2015: Con lead: +10.2% Con: +9.6% Lab: -0.6% Lib Dem: +0.6% Ukip: -7.8% Green: -1.2%
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
So they've been the official opposition for 7 years and losing 14% of their seats is deemed a successful outcome? good grief.
Yes very true just checked York Central surprised Labour are 1/3 and the Conservatives 9/4 .The Tories used to win this seat in the 80s.
Substantial boundary changes since the 80s though. , The safely Tory York Outer seat which was created picks up some areas that used to be in the old York seat.
The GE Seats spread-betting markets have once again remained very quiet today. In fact they've barely moved by more than the odd seat or two either way over the past 10 days .... one could be forgiven for forgetting that the campaign is now in full flow.
I've just heard a UKIP voter on LBC say he is now voting Labour!!!!!!!
Correction.
You have just heard somebody who claims he was a UKIP voter say he is now voting Labour.
Getting Labour loyalists to phone in posing as members of other parties and 'changing their minds' to vote Labour live on air was a favourite tactic of the left in the 1983 and 1987 elections. They wheeled it out when things were absolutely desperate (usually about day 3 of the campaign).
I think we should treat such things with due scepticism.
I listen to LBC quite a lot ; there is clearly a "Cybernat" thing going on, where they are ringing in saying how fabulous Labour is and/or complaining about the appalling bias.
Many also claim they were staunch Tories (or UKIP - I heard that one as well !!) in 2015 but somehow are magical Corbyn voters now. So in 2 years someone has gone from pretty right wing to hard left ......
This is a common lie, oddly many of these supposed ex Tories/Kippers don't seem to know very much about the party, but are well acquainted with the Labour version of what the party is like.
It is remarkable the number of people convinced "Jeremy will win". AFAICS (apart from the Kings Lynn fellow) none of them are taking the opportunity to make a fortune on the spread betting markets.
pulsar Welcome to PB.com
It's an old trick and one of the reasons I find political phone-ins unlistenable.
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
Dr @foxinsoxuk mentioned earlier that the medical authorities would take their own view on her suitability to practice medicine, and that it was somewhat unlikely to be in her favour.
By the way, reading back through the weekend's threads, were some excellent comments from your good self about risk management. As someone who spent the whole weekend dealing with this latest computer virus, add me to the list of those very interested in reading your paper when it's published.
Coventry Northwest, 1-2 is a big price on the Tories. The swing needed is slightly larger than Coventry south but it is much more white working class.
I have gone £9 @ 11-4 Coventry South Labour £50 @ 1-2 Coventry Northwest Tories.
As I said in a previous thread, Coventry North West is also slowly turning into a sort-of Solihull overspill. They have and are building a lot of new houses there with a significant amount being bought by former residents of Solihull. My Father is one of them.
Hanretty estimates:
Coventry North East 57.8% Coventry North West 58.4% Coventry South 50.4%
Cov South has St Michaels Ward which will be Corbyn central too.
How many Students will actually be around universities in June though?
A lot of student accommodation blocks gone up within past two years and even more now under construction. Planning for student accommodation always goes straight through not so for residential.
As a conservative voter, I think the GE is going to be much closer that the polls state. I sense things are beginning to turn and as I said a few days ago, the conservatives need to up their game before it gets away from them.
I wouldn't get nervous just yet. Based on the polling averages, Labour is only just creeping up towards its 2015 result, and the Conservative lead has extended by a little over 10% relative to that election (and I'm still not convinced that the pollsters aren't over-counting Labour and under-counting the Lib Dems, either.) Beyond that, the Conservatives have three weeks left in which to publish a properly-costed manifesto, pull Labour's shopping list of expensive sweeties apart, and maul the Labour leadership team for their dodgy pasts.
In short, the short campaign's really only just getting started.
Agreed. For the Conservatives it's like being able to bring on Messi and Ronaldo with 20 minutes to go when you are 3-0 up...
This is going to be a massacre. Lynton's gonna want a seat in the Lords after this...
I've just heard a UKIP voter on LBC say he is now voting Labour!!!!!!!
Correction.
You have just heard somebody who claims he was a UKIP voter say he is now voting Labour.
Getting Labour loyalists to phone in posing as members of other parties and 'changing their minds' to vote Labour live on air was a favourite tactic of the left in the 1983 and 1987 elections. They wheeled it out when things were absolutely desperate (usually about day 3 of the campaign).
I think we should treat such things with due scepticism.
I listen to LBC quite a lot ; there is clearly a "Cybernat" thing going on, where they are ringing in saying how fabulous Labour is and/or complaining about the appalling bias.
Many also claim they were staunch Tories (or UKIP - I heard that one as well !!) in 2015 but somehow are magical Corbyn voters now. So in 2 years someone has gone from pretty right wing to hard left ......
This is a common lie, oddly many of these supposed ex Tories/Kippers don't seem to know very much about the party, but are well acquainted with the Labour version of what the party is like.
It is remarkable the number of people convinced "Jeremy will win". AFAICS (apart from the Kings Lynn fellow) none of them are taking the opportunity to make a fortune on the spread betting markets.
pulsar Welcome to PB.com
It's an old trick and one of the reasons I find political phone-ins unlistenable.
Our local paper whose letters section is the habitual home of loons and obsessives kindly requests that letter writers disclose their political affiliations rather than actively lying. That they need to say that....
I don't get this. If someone stabs another person during a drink and drug fueled row, what on earth makes a judge think that that person is a good prospect to become a physician? Yes, we all make mistakes and have done foolish things while drunk, but stabbing?
There is another and much clearer photo of this stabber, Lavinia, on twitter; and if you look into her eyes: they are dead. If ever there was a person made not to hold a scalpel, it is she.
Comments
They are saying they will not accept 'no deal' but that essentially means they are not accepting Brexit because there has to be a willingness to walk away with WTO terms.
The 'leave' vote itself symbolises more than just article 50 being triggered. It means that control of borders, laws, money etc must return to Britain. Any party that is too vague or unconvincing on this is likely to get nowhere with the 52%.
Remainers seem to split two ways. One group accept the result and are looking for the smoothest implementation of the decision in line with it's spirit. The other group are 'No Surrender' ultras.
'Electors of Wareham! Somebody has been spreading the rumour that I wish you to vote according to your conscience. This is a dastardly lie, calculated to injure me. I wish and intend that you should all vote for me.'
I'm not sure what your objective is here.
http://elections.newstatesman.com/the-650/profile-of-a-landslide-where-the-tories-are-gaining-and-labour-losing/
Can I urge you to vote Lib Dem despite Tim Farron's best efforts ?
Meanwhile, Farron was sidelined by a fortnight arguing about gay sex, and still pretending that Brexit can be stopped. Or perhaps not, but y'know, it's not great .
I'm a bit surprised that neither of them have adopted a "yeah, we get that Brexit's happening, but May will kill the economy with her plan - we must fight to stay in the single market just like Farage, Hannan and Paterson said we should". I don't think either of them have been very clear on that.
My reading so far - when we see Labour 33% in a VI poll and UKIP/LD/Green in single figures - is that Labour have added some none-of-the-above vote to their core (when "the above" consists of just Tories!)
But as others have said, Lynton Crosby is going to get into gear in the next ten days and grind them into dust. Had Lab been floundering in the low 20s, they might not have bothered in order to look statesmanlike and magnanimous in crushing victory. But if a majority of less than about 70 is possible, he'll get a big bucket of IRA/Hamas-flavoured crap dumped on him, lapped up by the tabloids (etc). And then a fair chunk of the floating "we just want a functioning government" vote probably ends up with May by default.
I wasn't sure at the start what TMay was playing at... but she's got in while the LibDems still have coalition/Remain issues and before Labour's finished its sums. Unless Lab 33pc really is a trend, it still looks like a very safe bet of hers.
It seems to me, and has done since the Windermere byelection last October that the LD senior activists hate Brexit and they all agree they hate Brexit and they tell the junior activists that they hate Brexit and so they design the leaflets and do all the campaigning because everyone hates Brexit and like the Corbyn punter everything is going to come out alright because everyone hates Brexit.
Another controversial question - not entirely tongue in cheek. Labour will survive Corbyn but with the Lib Dems survive Farron ?
No possibility of JC=PM, so not relevant whether you like him.
Trying to make everything be about Brexit rather than domestic policies and trying to be "the party of the 48" means instead they look like sore losers holding their breath until the result gets upended. It is adolescent and it is not winning respect.
It's ironic that we always talked about Tory splits on the EU, yet how many unabashed Remainers do they have left? Two?
Israel is one of the United States’ most important allies and a major intelligence collector in the Middle East. The revelation that Mr. Trump boasted about some of Israel’s most sensitive information to the Russians could damage the relationship between the two countries. It also raises the possibility that the information could be passed to Iran, Russia’s close ally and Israel’s main threat in the Middle East.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/864527480031514624
https://twitter.com/LabourEoin/status/864431101598740484
(If we somehow did keep 200, then I think Chester would stay in our column, even as "safer" seats fell.)
Regicide is not big in the Liberal DNA. They couldn't even get rid of Asquith for 11 years after 1915!
https://twitter.com/AlainDesmier/status/863670307810357252
Coventry South @ 11-4
It's a mix of strong Tory and middle class Labour but includes a ward (St Michaels) that is more like inner London in character. Quite a few students there too, and the seat voted (Just) to remain by Hanretty.
Me and another (Tory) friend who is also from the seat have had a think about this and reckon Labour might just hang on here.
I'd love to lay the 1-80 in Coventry North East mind, there'll be a huge Tory swing there but it probably won't be enough.
Cov Northwest is definitely heading Tory.
Note Coventry somehow voted for Sion Simon in the mayoralty !
http://www.conservativehome.com/parliament/2017/05/battleground-seats-7-west-midlands.html
Ian Brady came out of the kitchen and he and Hindley started arguing so he escaped through a window. He's written a book about it called 'A Slice of Bread and Jam'.
If he'd stayed for a three course dinner he could have written a trilogy
Labour could well win 102 seats in the GE.
https://twitter.com/afp/status/864512345074225153
But rather, 102 gross, which will leave them requiring a not so small miracle to ever again win an overall majority?
get us some pussy.
I have gone £9 @ 11-4 Coventry South Labour
£50 @ 1-2 Coventry Northwest Tories.
You have just heard somebody who claims he was a UKIP voter say he is now voting Labour.
Getting Labour loyalists to phone in posing as members of other parties and 'changing their minds' to vote Labour live on air was a favourite tactic of the left in the 1983 and 1987 elections. They wheeled it out when things were absolutely desperate (usually about day 3 of the campaign).
I think we should treat such things with due scepticism.
Coventry North East 57.8%
Coventry North West 58.4%
Coventry South 50.4%
Cov South has St Michaels Ward which will be Corbyn central too.
Because it's a Betfair Exchange market, you can bet on either side, him winning or losing.
Right now you can get odds of 10.0 against him winning.
If you are confident he will stand, you could bet on him winning at those odds.
After the election, if he stands, you might expects those odds to fall. At that point you could bet against him at shorter odds, then you win whether he wins or not.
If he doesn't stand, you lose everything.
Many also claim they were staunch Tories (or UKIP - I heard that one as well !!) in 2015 but somehow are magical Corbyn voters now. So in 2 years someone has gone from pretty right wing to hard left ......
This is a common lie, oddly many of these supposed ex Tories/Kippers don't seem to know very much about the party, but are well acquainted with the Labour version of what the party is like.
It is remarkable the number of people convinced "Jeremy will win". AFAICS (apart from the Kings Lynn fellow) none of them are taking the opportunity to make a fortune on the spread betting markets.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/oxford-student-spared-jail-extraordinary-talent/
In short, the short campaign's really only just getting started.
28 Feb - 13 Mar (2 weeks)
Mean Con lead: 17.3%
Con 43.3%
Lab 26.0%
Lib Dem 9.7%
Ukip 11.3%
Green 4.0%
14 Mar - 27 Mar (2 weeks)
Mean Con lead: 15.7% (-1.6)
Con 42.5% (-0.8)
Lab 26.8% (+0.8)
Lib Dem 10.1% (+0.4)
Ukip 10.3% (-1.0)
Green 3.8% (-0.2)
28 Mar - 10 Apr (2 weeks)
Mean Con lead: 17.5% (+0.2)
Con 42.5% (-0.8)
Lab 25.0% (-1.0)
Lib Dem 11.0% (+1.3)
Ukip 11.0% (-0.3)
Green 3.5% (-0.5)
11 Apr - 17 Apr
Mean Con lead: 17.2% (-0.1)
Con 43.0% (-0.3)
Lab 25.8% (-0.2)
Lib Dem 10.0% (+0.3)
Ukip 11.0% (-0.3)
Green 4.3% (+0.3)
18 Apr - 24 Apr
*Theresa May announced her decision to seek a dissolution on 18 April*
Mean Con lead: 20.4% (+3.1)
Con 46.7% (+3.4)
Lab 26.3% (+0.3)
Lib Dem 10.7% (+1.0)
Ukip 7.3% (-4.0)
*Ukip collapses relative to the previous week, and has been in continuous decline since*
Green 3.2% (-0.8)
25 Apr - 1 May
Mean Con lead: 16.5% (-0.8)
Con 45.7% (+2.4)
Lab 29.2% (+3.2)
*Labour jumps 3pts on the previous week*
Lib Dem 10.2% (+0.5)
*The Liberal Democrats begin to decline at this point in the campaign, and have been in continuous decline since*
Ukip 6.7% (-4.6)
Green 2.7% (-1.3)
2 May - 8 May
*The local elections were held on 4 May*
Mean Con lead: 18.3% (+1.0)
Con 46.8% (+3.5)
*The Conservatives polled at least 46% in every survey bar one (44%) during this period*
Lab 28.5% (+2.5)
Lib Dem 9.5% (-0.2)
Ukip 6.5% (-4.8)
Green 3.2% (-0.8)
9 May - 15 May
Mean Con lead: 16.8% (-0.5)
Con 47.4% (+4.1)
*The Conservatives polled at least 46% in every survey during this period*
Lab 30.6% (+4.6)
*Labour polls 33%, its best score since November; both Labour and the Conservatives record their best weekly averages of the campaign so far*
Lib Dem 8.7% (-1.0)
Ukip 5.1% (-6.2)
Green 2.6% (-1.4)
*The Lib Dems, Ukip and the Greens all record their lowest weekly averages of the campaign so far*
In short since the pre-election period both Labour and the Conservatives have gained roughly equal shares of the electorate, at the expense of all the other parties. Therefore, although Labour's position has improved significantly, it has made virtually no impression on the Conservative lead at all so far.
Changes for 9 May - 15 May relative to GE2015:
Con lead: +10.2%
Con: +9.6%
Lab: -0.6%
Lib Dem: +0.6%
Ukip: -7.8%
Green: -1.2%
Though it was overturned because he was caught lying.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/07/man-who-beat-wife-with-cricket-bat-is-jailed-after-misleading-court
I don't see why employment prospects should be taken into account for violent crimes like these.
Obviously, people earning more than £80k starts getting reduced in numbers, higher the income is.
It is probable that the "average" earnings of taxpayers earning between £80k and £123k is £88k. Hence, the increased tax of £400 [ 80k x 5% = £400 ]
It's an old trick and one of the reasons I find political phone-ins unlistenable.
By the way, reading back through the weekend's threads, were some excellent comments from your good self about risk management. As someone who spent the whole weekend dealing with this latest computer virus, add me to the list of those very interested in reading your paper when it's published.
This is going to be a massacre. Lynton's gonna want a seat in the Lords after this...
new thread