LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got started
Going in for the kill on Corbyn now does start to feel a little like kicking the man when he's down, a bit excessive and cruel.
Then I remember that 90% of the population don't know he supported the IRA, Hamas and worked for Iranian stateTV. I wonder who's going to get the job of being Mr Nasty on every radio and TV show one day next week?
Fallon. Although he was a bit crap against Lady Nugee. So maybe Hammond.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
SCon Subsample anti-surge non-klaxon alert.
I think the Klaxon has already run out of batteries !
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.
Spot on. And this is one GE where that strategy is barmy. They should have known from last time and May warned them again 3 weeks ago - strong and stable v coalition of chaos. Simples.
Completely bonkers from you, mate. That is not our strategy. We are not lining up with Labour. We are not lining up with the Tories. End of.
Liar liar pants on fire - Cable gave the game away the other week. The polls agree with me but I suppose we already know what the LDs think of the voters - EU referendum? Wrong answer folks let's have another till you get it right.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got started
Going in for the kill on Corbyn now does start to feel a little like kicking the man when he's down, a bit excessive and cruel.
Then I remember that 90% of the population don't know he supported the IRA, Hamas and worked for Iranian stateTV. I wonder who's going to get the job of being Mr Nasty on every radio and TV show one day next week?
Jess Philips told the Guardian this afternoon that more constituents talk to her about Gogglebox than Brexit.
Tories will have to hammer away every day for next three weeks for the average voter to even hear it once.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got started
Going in for the kill on Corbyn now does start to feel a little like kicking the man when he's down, a bit excessive and cruel.
Then I remember that 90% of the population don't know he supported the IRA, Hamas and worked for Iranian stateTV. I wonder who's going to get the job of being Mr Nasty on every radio and TV show one day next week?
Fallon. Although he was a bit crap against Lady Nugee. So maybe Hammond.
Where is Hammond? Haven't seen him since day one of the campaign.
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.
All the voters, of all political persuasions, that I have spoken to about this are in favour of it.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner) - a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc) - got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
Usual health warnings about sub samples, but that poll has Labour hitting 50% in London and the other regions pretty much matching the YouGov regional stuff from the other day.
SNP 56% !!
Q8. How do you feel about...Leaving the European Single Market and Customs Union
UK Net support - 41 Net oppose - 34
Scotland Net support - 22 Net oppose - 53
Meaningless of course. Probably.
I wonder how many could tell the difference between the customs union and the single market? Or actually know what they are?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result. The fact that you don't agree with us doesn't give you the right to bully us into submission.
Can you tell I'm just a teensie weensie bit pissed off with the arrogance of Leavers, who think that they have the right to control what other people think?
We live in a democracy in which people are allowed to disagree.
I perhaps might just tell you that I voted remain.... We live in a democracy which means accepting the will of the people. If you can't take a defeat and move on the voters will not forgive you.
Corbyn and his clique have all the strategic sense of invading Russia during winter....they really are running the hard left into a defeat from which they will not recover.....
My favorite use of graphics to illustrate data of all time:
Florence Nightingale, apart from famously professionalising nursing, essentially invented health policy and was an early promoter of data driven policy. She was one of the first to use pie charts, that necessary prop of a million PowerPoint presentations, as a way of communicating an idea. Including this one.
LD and UKIP surely can't fall much further - which means Con and Lab can't both keep rising.
For Lab to keep rising to any degree, Con will have to start edging down.
what will happen next is the Tories will start to eat into more of labours share as the tories launch their manifesto and Lynton Crosby and the tory machine get to work in the next three weeks to destroy Corbyns credibility completely. Labour have not hit their floor yet and the tories haven't even got started
Going in for the kill on Corbyn now does start to feel a little like kicking the man when he's down, a bit excessive and cruel.
Then I remember that 90% of the population don't know he supported the IRA, Hamas and worked for Iranian stateTV. I wonder who's going to get the job of being Mr Nasty on every radio and TV show one day next week?
Fallon. Although he was a bit crap against Lady Nugee. So maybe Hammond.
I was thinking Fallon too, Hammond's probably a bit senior to do it. The ideal position for that attack is probably the Foreign Secretary, but the incumbent buffoon there can't really carry off Mr Nasty - maybe Boris could be the good cop and Fallon the bad cop?
And the Facebook ads, don't forget Lynton and the Facebook ads. They will be really nasty, and highly targeted at the marginal voters in the marginal seats. Most of us won't see them at all, but they'll have a big effect where it matters.
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
Alice Cooper 'I want to be elected'
@FattyBolger - a fellow Leeds bedsit land resident from the 80s? I was there 82-85.
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.
All the voters, of all political persuasions, that I have spoken to about this are in favour of it.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner) - a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc) - got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
It's always somebody else's fault with the LDs isn't it. Maybe you need to think through those points above and quit whingeing.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So nope to you, twice with knobs on and can you see me thumbing my nose at you?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So nope to you, twice with knobs on and can you see me thumbing my nose at you?
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
Usual health warnings about sub samples, but that poll has Labour hitting 50% in London and the other regions pretty much matching the YouGov regional stuff from the other day.
SNP 56% !!
Q8. How do you feel about...Leaving the European Single Market and Customs Union
UK Net support - 41 Net oppose - 34
Scotland Net support - 22 Net oppose - 53
Meaningless of course. Probably.
I wonder how many could tell the difference between the customs union and the single market? Or actually know what they are?
Given the Tories already have the anti customs union vote and the LDs are pro Union and more pro EU than the SNP and the SNP is polling below where it was in 2015 in most polls before the Leave vote meaningless? Certainly
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
This is not an election for the sensible party. The loons have taken over the asylum on both sides of the house.
Very true when you have Boris running the Foreign Office.Surely May will get someone with gravitas after the election to run such a major department .Give Boris culture and media.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay?
I would be interested to know how many voters can name a Lib Dem policy other than "stop Brexit".
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
Compared to the steaming pile of uncosted goodies that Labour shat out today, the LD NHS policy is perfectly reasonable.
The LDs need to make sure that everyone who goes on any media mentions it again and again, the party looks from here to have been completely absent from the airwaves for the last few days absent Clegg making a tit of himself this lunchtime.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay?
I would be interested to know how many voters can name a Lib Dem policy other than "stop Brexit".
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
The left has lapped up Corbyn's moon on a stick and the right is enthralled by Mrs May and the Three Brexiteers. Meanwhile our leave flank has wondered off to the blues, and the soft centre Tories that could have come to us are sticking with May Fault de mieux.
EEA or Single market membership is what Sturgeon realised to try and retain her leave flank early on and will kill us in at least Southport, Norfolk North & Carshalton at this next election.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
Nope
There is no 'way it works' (certainly not to be decided by you, or me!)
They are at liberty to campaign for whatever they wish, whenever they wish (just as you are at liberty to campaign to the contrary)
Freedom and liberty, dear boy, it's not as much fun when it's for other people, is it?!
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.
Thats utterly illogical though. You're never going to get two main parties of the left. There's only ever going to be room for one.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.
Maybe but they are not going to. And there is a carcase on the table. Time to eat.
Yes, it's as nuts as the 2005 "decapitation" strategy when they should have been setting up for an attack on Labour seats in 2010.
Think they have two main problems - firstly, while Labour may be haemorraging traditional centrist and working class voters, Corbyn is comparatively popular among the student/protest voters who used to boost the Lib Dems. They used to be the ones who could offer the world on a stick because they'd never win. Now that's Jeremy's approach. Secondly, the reason their anti-Brexit stance is not breaking through is that thanks to the 2015 wipeout they lack the muscle to even look capable of following through and doing something about it. If they were on 50 seats and were within striking distance of Labour they'd be attractive to anti-corbyn remainers - as it is they're only really relevant in isolated spots with specific electorates.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay?
I would be interested to know how many voters can name a Lib Dem policy other than "stop Brexit".
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
The left has lapped up Corbyn's moon on a stick and the right is enthralled by Mrs May and the Three Brexiteers. Meanwhile our leave flank has wondered off to the blues, and the soft centre Tories that could have come to us are sticking with May Fault de mieux.
EEA or Single market membership is what Sturgeon realised to try and retain her leave flank early on and will kill us in at least Southport, Norfolk North & Carshalton at this next election.
I'm praying Jo Swinson gets in personally.
Over a third of SNP voters voted Leave, especially fishermen in Tory targets like Moray, only about 25% of LDs voted Leave
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay?
I would be interested to know how many voters can name a Lib Dem policy other than "stop Brexit".
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
Compared to the steaming pile of uncosted goodies that Labour shat out today, the LD NHS policy is perfectly reasonable.
The LDs need to make sure that everyone who goes on any media mentions it again and again, the party looks from here to have been completely absent from the airwaves for the last few days absent Clegg making a tit of himself this lunchtime.
Yes the NHS is tremendously good value, but needs more cash. More capital rather than current expenditure in my opinion mind...
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
The best kind of Leave is an aborted one. The public should have the right to make that choice once negotiations are complete.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.
Thats utterly illogical though. You're never going to get two main parties of the left. There's only ever going to be room for one.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
The bulk of the LD activist base and the present leadership would much rather replace the Tories than Labour as one of the Big Two.
Maybe but they are not going to. And there is a carcase on the table. Time to eat.
Yes, it's as nuts as the 2005 "decapitation" strategy when they should have been setting up for an attack on Labour seats in 2010.
Think they have two main problems - firstly, while Labour may be haemorraging traditional centrist and working class voters, Corbyn is comparatively popular among the student/protest voters who used to boost the Lib Dems. They used to be the ones who could offer the world on a stick because they'd never win. Now that's Jeremy's approach. Secondly, the reason their anti-Brexit stance is not breaking through is that thanks to the 2015 wipeout they lack the muscle to even look capable of following through and doing something about it. If they were on 50 seats and were within striking distance of Labour they'd be attractive to anti-corbyn remainers - as it is they're only really relevant in isolated spots with specific electorates.
This seems true. Labour vote share is firming up by stealing from the LibDems.
But it's nowhere near enough to reach the Tories' plundering of UKIP.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
Nope
There is no 'way it works' (certainly not to be decided by you, or me!)
They are at liberty to campaign for whatever they wish, whenever they wish (just as you are at liberty to campaign to the contrary)
Freedom and liberty, dear boy, it's not as much fun when it's for other people, is it?!
OK, yes, sure, technically they can campaign to ignore the referendum result and nobody should force them not to - but approximately nobody will take them seriously. This is one of the reasons the LDs are struggling badly - they're trying to appeal to c. 22% of the population, and even those people struggle to take them seriously because it's obvious that they don't care about the democratic result.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
Exactly, if the voters really wanted soft Brexit the LDs would be making big gains
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
The best kind of Leave is an aborted one. The public should have the right to make that choice once negotiations are complete.
So you expect the government and the EU27 to negotiate two different agreements during the A50 negotiations?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
Nope
There is no 'way it works' (certainly not to be decided by you, or me!)
They are at liberty to campaign for whatever they wish, whenever they wish (just as you are at liberty to campaign to the contrary)
Freedom and liberty, dear boy, it's not as much fun when it's for other people, is it?!
It kind of is fun when you're on 8% and falling old bean.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
The best kind of Leave is an aborted one. The public should have the right to make that choice once negotiations are complete.
So you expect the government and the EU27 to negotiate two different agreements during the A50 negotiations?
No, I expect Theresa May to keep the option of revisiting the decision close to her chest until the last moment. She's convinced the key to getting 'the best possible deal' is to persuade the EU we're serious. Once that process is concluded, she will be able to come back to the people and give them two options: the deal or staying in the EU.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
It's several things. First, they lack a solid core vote in many areas - people aren't sure if they're left of Labour (as they suggested pre-2010), partners with Tories (2010-15) or just super-Europhiles (post-referendum). In the absence of strong media coverage, it's important to have that core who'll vote for you regardless.
Second, the indisputable strength of the May brand is pushing people who don't like it into supporting Labour as the obvious counterpoint. Whatever you think about Labour, absolutely nobody thinks Corbyn is a closet Tory and Labour might join them in national coalition.
Third, Labour has so far made all the running on the opposition side. It's not that the LibDems have no policies, but that they've not been highlighting any, except being anti-Brexit, so they squander what coverag ethey get.
Their strength rmains their indefatigable activists like MrsB, and I think they will still get lots of tactical votes and maybe seats where it's clear that they're the main local alternative.
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.
All the voters, of all political persuasions, that I have spoken to about this are in favour of it.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner) - a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc) - got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
The Lib Dems did the one penny on income tax for everyone for education in the ,92 election.It was popular .I thought Labour voters would again vote Lib dem tactically where Labour had no chance.Maybe there is still a hangover from the coalition with the conservatives.All my family voted Lib Dem in 2010 in York Outer none voted Lib Dem in 2015.However after speaking to them this time ,some are not voting ,others are saying they are sticking to their principles and voting Labour.The rest back to voting Lib dem.The life of living in a safe blue seat.Just love FPTP not.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay?
I would be interested to know how many voters can name a Lib Dem policy other than "stop Brexit".
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
Compared to the steaming pile of uncosted goodies that Labour shat out today, the LD NHS policy is perfectly reasonable.
The LDs need to make sure that everyone who goes on any media mentions it again and again, the party looks from here to have been completely absent from the airwaves for the last few days absent Clegg making a tit of himself this lunchtime.
Yes the NHS is tremendously good value, but needs more cash. More capital rather than current expenditure in my opinion mind...
There's always room at an election for parties to debate the balance between taxation and government spending, and a simple differentiator of a penny on income tax to fund healthcare is easily comprehended and sellable to a good proportion of the country.
Compare and contrast with the new longest suicide note in history from the red team, who have no idea how the world of business works at all. We can tell that Diane has been adding their numbers up.
OK, yes, sure, technically they can campaign to ignore the referendum result and nobody should force them not to - but approximately nobody will take them seriously.
It's already too late to ignore the referendum result. Article 50 has been triggered.
Anyone arguing that we should ultimately take a different path is *not* arguing that the referendum should be ignored.
The comments on the main news article on the BBC website on the Labour Manifesto are massively negative - see link - load comments and then sort by Highest Rated - every single highest rated comment is negative and is agreed with by a ratio of between 2:1 and 3:1.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
This seems true. Labour vote share is firming up by stealing from the LibDems.
But it's nowhere near enough to reach the Tories' plundering of UKIP.
The Tories are also plundering from the LibDems. And from Labour. There are also supposedly some Tories going over to Corbyn, which is perhaps the most bizarre cohort in this entire election.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So nope to you, twice with knobs on and can you see me thumbing my nose at you?
Absolutely.
You are perfectly at liberty to campaign for whatever you want. Thing is, aside from all those dog ate my homework excuses about why the LDs are going nowhere, it doesn't seem to be working.
But then you LD supporters are funny old sausages. You seem never to have forgiven the party for getting into government.
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
The decision to Leave has been made, but nothing is known about the terms.
So what? Provided we Leave the EU, the mandate of the referendum has been fulfilled. Maybe your lot should have spent the last year arguing for the kind of Leave you most wanted rather than still fighting the battle you already lost.
The best kind of Leave is an aborted one. The public should have the right to make that choice once negotiations are complete.
You are still massively in denial. You need to move on to the next stage of grieving pretty soon for the sake of your sanity.
The day that we actually leave the EU, I fear that you will need to be put on "suicide watch".
Their strength rmains their indefatigable activists like MrsB, and I think they will still get lots of tactical votes and maybe seats where it's clear that they're the main local alternative.
Yes, I'd still expect a big batch of Labour tactical votes to return to the LibDems in the Tory/LD marginals this time. I would be voting for them if I was in that situation. I don't think lefties hate them in the way they did in 2015, they just don't feel very drawn to them if there's a Labour candidate who can win in the constituency instead.
The flipside is that those Labour->LD tactical votes are unlikely to overcome the big wave of UKIP->Con defections in those seats, especially in the South West where UKIP topped 10% in many of them in 2015.
This seems true. Labour vote share is firming up by stealing from the LibDems.
But it's nowhere near enough to reach the Tories' plundering of UKIP.
The Tories are also plundering from the LibDems. And from Labour. There are also supposedly some Tories going over to Corbyn, which is perhaps the most bizarre cohort in this entire election.
Given the Tories are up 10% on 2015 and Labour not much changed unlikely
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.
All the voters, of all political persuasions, that I have spoken to about this are in favour of it.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner) - a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc) - got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
The Lib Dems did the one penny on income tax for everyone for education in the ,92 election.It was popular .I thought Labour voters would again vote Lib dem tactically where Labour had no chance.Maybe there is still a hangover from the coalition with the conservatives.All my family voted Lib Dem in 2010 in York Outer none voted Lib Dem in 2015.However after speaking to them this time ,some are not voting ,others are saying they are sticking to their principles and voting Labour.The rest back to voting Lib dem.The life of living in a safe blue seat.Just love FPTP not.
I was gonna write a piece on the LibDems but then I thought, fuck it, why bother.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
Taking out the '2016 did not votes' in the TNS gives Tory 51 Lab 27.
Panelbase is 47-32 (with DNVs removed) but these are Panelbase's last two efforts:
2015 Westminster Lab 33 Con 31 ... result 31-37 ... swing to Con 4% 2016 Holyrood:.... SNP 49 Con 17 ... result 46.5:22 .... swing to Con 3.75%
What is a 2016 did not vote?
Did not vote in EU ref?
Do you mean did not vote at 2015 GE?
Did not vote in the 2016 referendum. With TNS, only 6% of those people say they are certain to vote this time as well.
Can someone explain something to this simple soul.
Neither Labour nor Tories are offering to reverse or ignore the referendum result. The LDs are proposing to reverse it, but will be in no position to do so (even if A509 can be revoked - can it?).
Whatever your previous affiliation, switching your vote in this way will not alter the outcome of the referendum. For a Remainer to go from Con to LD is a long journey ideologically and a futile one.
Hence almost nobody will. Those to whom this is the only issue (UKIP) will avoid voting LibDem but will otherwise return to their pre-UKIP allegiance. At the moment this sends most UKIP support back to CON.
So how can a seat's Leave / Remain MP/challenger/party/electorate possibly make any difference anywhere? Isn't it just a big red herring?
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
It's several things. First, they lack a solid core vote in many areas - people aren't sure if they're left of Labour (as they suggested pre-2010), partners with Tories (2010-15) or just super-Europhiles (post-referendum). In the absence of strong media coverage, it's important to have that core who'll vote for you regardless.
Second, the indisputable strength of the May brand is pushing people who don't like it into supporting Labour as the obvious counterpoint. Whatever you think about Labour, absolutely nobody thinks Corbyn is a closet Tory and Labour might join them in national coalition.
Third, Labour has so far made all the running on the opposition side. It's not that the LibDems have no policies, but that they've not been highlighting any, except being anti-Brexit, so they squander what coverag ethey get.
Their strength rmains their indefatigable activists like MrsB, and I think they will still get lots of tactical votes and maybe seats where it's clear that they're the main local alternative.
The big difference this time is that Corbyn will push half the tactical LibDems into the Tory column so, for the first election in almost a generation, Labour won't benefit from any anti-Tory voting.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
No interesting minor parties standing in your patch even?
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
Welcome.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
The top three are clear negatives, the last two pretty neutral. So choose between LD and Green depending on their prospects in your seat?
Taking out the '2016 did not votes' in the TNS gives Tory 51 Lab 27.
Panelbase is 47-32 (with DNVs removed) but these are Panelbase's last two efforts:
2015 Westminster Lab 33 Con 31 ... result 31-37 ... swing to Con 4% 2016 Holyrood:.... SNP 49 Con 17 ... result 46.5:22 .... swing to Con 3.75%
What is a 2016 did not vote?
Did not vote in EU ref?
Do you mean did not vote at 2015 GE?
Did not vote in the 2016 referendum. With TNS, only 6% of those people say they are certain to vote this time as well.
Can someone explain something to this simple soul.
Neither Labour nor Tories are offering to reverse or ignore the referendum result. The LDs are proposing to reverse it, but will be in no position to do so (even if A509 can be revoked - can it?).
Whatever your previous affiliation, switching your vote in this way will not alter the outcome of the referendum. For a Remainer to go from Con to LD is a long journey ideologically and a futile one.
Hence almost nobody will. Those to whom this is the only issue (UKIP) will avoid voting LibDem but will otherwise return to their pre-UKIP allegiance. At the moment this sends most UKIP support back to CON.
So how can a seat's Leave / Remain MP/challenger/party/electorate possibly make any difference anywhere? Isn't it just a big red herring?
RE article 50. We cannot unilaterally revoke it, it requires agreement of the EU27 and whatever price they demand for our remaining
Perhaps Farron would be better off doing a 180 and start pitching for the leave team…
The thing is on paper their strategy is perfectly sensible. Appeal to remainers and all their major policies are costed and not unreasonable. Instead they are losing out to total utter bonkers stuff.
Perhaps when push comes to shove, voters just don't want a penny on income tax to fund the NHS.
All the voters, of all political persuasions, that I have spoken to about this are in favour of it.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner) - a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc) - got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
The Lib Dems did the one penny on income tax for everyone for education in the ,92 election.It was popular .I thought Labour voters would again vote Lib dem tactically where Labour had no chance.Maybe there is still a hangover from the coalition with the conservatives.All my family voted Lib Dem in 2010 in York Outer none voted Lib Dem in 2015.However after speaking to them this time ,some are not voting ,others are saying they are sticking to their principles and voting Labour.The rest back to voting Lib dem.The life of living in a safe blue seat.Just love FPTP not.
I was gonna write a piece on the LibDems but then I thought, fuck it, why bother.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
No interesting minor parties standing in your patch even?
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
Or?
Has to be or, and instead of or would mean prison time.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
2) As a Labour candidate she is also pretty sound on VAT on private school fees too
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
If the LDs cannot even convince you to vote for them on a Europhile platform they may as well pack up and go home
The Lib Dems remain the mystery of the election for me. With Labour so laughably shambolic why are they not making hay? I remember in 1983 a very young DavidL working hard to help the SDP Liberal Alliance to 25% of the vote against a Labour party not quite as chaotic and inept as this one. And we were disappointed. For the Lib Dems to either be on the edge of or in single figures is truly pathetic.
This ineptitude is letting Corbyn off the hook somewhat. It is deeply frustrating.
no mystery. 1. They're hypocrites about just about everything. 2. Farron was a lousy leadership choice. 3. they don't accept the referendum result. 4. They're crap.
That is nonsense but you are correct in one thing: that Lib Dems don't accept the referendum result - in the sense that we don't accept that the referendum result decided the issue for ever. The 1975 referendum had a decisive result but Leavers did not accept that was the final word and carried on campaigning against it for the next 40 years. So I think we have the right to carry on campaigning for Remain for the next 40 years after a far less decisive result.
Nope.
The way it works is:
Decision made Decision implemented Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
Agreed. Though if enough leavers publicly changed their minds that could make a difference.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
If the LDs cannot even convince you to vote for them on a Europhile platform they may as well pack up and go home
Have we actually had a LibDem manifesto launch yet? Wait until we see some more policies and then decide?
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
If the LDs cannot even convince you to vote for them on a Europhile platform they may as well pack up and go home
According to the highly unhelpful recent classification that has been much touted, I'm a Re-Leaver. Brexit is going to be a disaster but as a matter of democracy it has to be seen through to its undoubtedly bitter end. We're all just going to have to go over Niagara in a barrel.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
For the love of God please don't vote against Clegg
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
*cough* ...or you could vote for the Pirate Party candidate in Manchester Central... *cough*
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
For the love of God please don't vote against Clegg
He was part of the best government in eons.
I'm voting Tory, because I've got a 16/1 betslip on the Tories winning Hallam, plus JohnO has commanded me to vote Tory, and he is wise in all matters.
But I would feel guilty, Clegg wouldn't deserve it.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
You will vote Conservative: that's an order.
I will vote Tory in Hallam.
PS - Congratulations on your result in the locals.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
For the love of God please don't vote against Clegg
He was part of the best government in eons.
I'm voting Tory, because I've got a 16/1 betslip on the Tories winning Hallam, plus JohnO has commanded me to vote Tory, and he is wise in all matters.
But I would feel guilty, Clegg wouldn't deserve it.
I honestly don't know what to do. I am one of those undecided voters - unusual for pb. In the 4 elections of my adulthood I've gone from abstention to Labour to Lib Dem to Green.
I'm in this club. The options are as follows:
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
I've got two options
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
Comments
http://www.tns-bmrb.co.uk/tns-polling-archive
Yougov and Comres both had the SNP on 41% this week and the Tories on about 28% in Scotland, Panelbase is a subsample of 67 people
The way it works is:
Decision made
Decision implemented
Campaign to make new decision.
Therefore you are at liberty to campaign to Rejoin after we Leave, but not to Remain any longer - it's off the table, the decision has been made.
Tories will have to hammer away every day for next three weeks for the average voter to even hear it once.
In my view the Lib Dems have the following problems above all:
- no media organisation supporting us (unlike Tories, Labour, UKIP, SNP who all have newspapers in their corner)
- a lot less money than Labour or Tories (so can't buy coverage, posters, billboards, wraparounds, videos etc)
- got squeezed last time, people assume we will be squeeze next time (vicious circle)
http://thisisstatistics.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/Coxcomb1.png
The 1p-for-the-NHS policy doesn't appear to have caught anyone's attention, and there's nothing else of great substance.
And the Facebook ads, don't forget Lynton and the Facebook ads. They will be really nasty, and highly targeted at the marginal voters in the marginal seats. Most of us won't see them at all, but they'll have a big effect where it matters.
Mr. Dancer will be along later to put you right.....
So nope to you, twice with knobs on and can you see me thumbing my nose at you?
The LDs need to make sure that everyone who goes on any media mentions it again and again, the party looks from here to have been completely absent from the airwaves for the last few days absent Clegg making a tit of himself this lunchtime.
Meanwhile our leave flank has wondered off to the blues, and the soft centre Tories that could have come to us are sticking with May Fault de mieux.
EEA or Single market membership is what Sturgeon realised to try and retain her leave flank early on and will kill us in at least Southport, Norfolk North & Carshalton at this next election.
I'm praying Jo Swinson gets in personally.
There is no 'way it works' (certainly not to be decided by you, or me!)
They are at liberty to campaign for whatever they wish, whenever they wish (just as you are at liberty to campaign to the contrary)
Freedom and liberty, dear boy, it's not as much fun when it's for other people, is it?!
It possibly removes a very large roadblock to any Brexit deal:
https://www.theguardian.com/law/2017/may/16/uk-brexit-boost-ecj-rules-trade-deals-parliament-ratification
This seems true. Labour vote share is firming up by stealing from the LibDems.
But it's nowhere near enough to reach the Tories' plundering of UKIP.
Betting noob here.
Is there a way to bet on Clegg standing for leader after the election? - assuming that Farron quits for making no progress/losing seats, and that Clegg doesn't lose his?
Also: a few weeks ago there was a poll showing who'd make the best PM in which Corbyn scored 23%. Is that not probably the absolute Labour floor? - people who'd prefer any Labour PM, even Corbyn, over May?
-100 Adrianople [Malmesbury]
-90 Cap Bon [Malmesbury’s suggestion]
-80 Allia [another_richard’s suggestion]
-70 Cannae
-60 Arausio
-50 Teutoberg Forest
-40 Carrhae
-30 Lake Trasimene
If it's not too bad:
-20 Asculum
-10 Heraclea
And, if Labour actually increase their seat numbers:
+10 Zela
+20 Tigranocerta
+30 Zama
I'm beginning to think the victories and Pyrrhic defeats won't necessarily be of much use.
Betfair have a betting market on next LibDem leader:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.119683252
Second, the indisputable strength of the May brand is pushing people who don't like it into supporting Labour as the obvious counterpoint. Whatever you think about Labour, absolutely nobody thinks Corbyn is a closet Tory and Labour might join them in national coalition.
Third, Labour has so far made all the running on the opposition side. It's not that the LibDems have no policies, but that they've not been highlighting any, except being anti-Brexit, so they squander what coverag ethey get.
Their strength rmains their indefatigable activists like MrsB, and I think they will still get lots of tactical votes and maybe seats where it's clear that they're the main local alternative.
Compare and contrast with the new longest suicide note in history from the red team, who have no idea how the world of business works at all. We can tell that Diane has been adding their numbers up.
Anyone arguing that we should ultimately take a different path is *not* arguing that the referendum should be ignored.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39930865
@FattyBolger - a fellow Leeds bedsit land resident from the 80s? I was there 82-85.
History 82-85
Incidentally, your surname is the precise meaning (missing the 'a-') of Prometheus.
https://twitter.com/SpeakerRyan/status/751198307972767744
You are perfectly at liberty to campaign for whatever you want. Thing is, aside from all those dog ate my homework excuses about why the LDs are going nowhere, it doesn't seem to be working.
But then you LD supporters are funny old sausages. You seem never to have forgiven the party for getting into government.
You need to move on to the next stage of grieving pretty soon for the sake of your sanity.
The day that we actually leave the EU, I fear that you will need to be put on "suicide watch".
The flipside is that those Labour->LD tactical votes are unlikely to overcome the big wave of UKIP->Con defections in those seats, especially in the South West where UKIP topped 10% in many of them in 2015.
Labour - I can't vote for any party led by that man
Conservatives - I can't endorse car crash Brexit
UKIP - I've had all my anti-rabies jabs
Lib Dems - "Brexit is bad" isn't a policy
Greens - They seem irrelevant right now
I'm probably going to spoil my ballot paper.
Neither Labour nor Tories are offering to reverse or ignore the referendum result. The LDs are proposing to reverse it, but will be in no position to do so (even if A509 can be revoked - can it?).
Whatever your previous affiliation, switching your vote in this way will not alter the outcome of the referendum. For a Remainer to go from Con to LD is a long journey ideologically and a futile one.
Hence almost nobody will. Those to whom this is the only issue (UKIP) will avoid voting LibDem but will otherwise return to their pre-UKIP allegiance. At the moment this sends most UKIP support back to CON.
So how can a seat's Leave / Remain MP/challenger/party/electorate possibly make any difference anywhere? Isn't it just a big red herring?
Is there a way (or place) to bet on him standing but losing?
[I once received such a vote to be Governor of California in the first election Schwarzenegger won].
1) Vote Blue to topple Clegg and turn Hallam blue again but I'm struggling to vote for Theresa 'Ed Miliband in a skirt and heels' May's policies
or
2) Vote in Manchester Central for Lucy Powell, who has done so much for the Tories, and is also pretty sound on grammar schools.
I would not do well in prison.
45% tax band will cost average person affected only £400.
Is that correct - implies average person earning between £80k and £123k is on £88k - so pays 5% more on £8k = £400.
In contrast, 50% band will cost average person affected £23k.
He was part of the best government in eons.
Just saying...
Pish. Aurelian and Trajan were miles better.
But I would feel guilty, Clegg wouldn't deserve it.
PS - Congratulations on your result in the locals.
https://twitter.com/thhamilton/status/864516297362722816