Labour's proposal to cancel the planned increases in pension age is the single most barmy measure in the whole barmy sweet-bag. We actually need to be discussing whether and when more increases will be needed, beyond those already planned.
The big thing that a sensible government should be doing is looking at way to encourage phased retirement. It is bonkers that is this day and age at 65 ot 68 etc you go from 40hrs a week to 0. It would be far more sensible to have it that throughout your 60's you start to reduce the number of hours, also better for people's health etc etc etc.
Actually I found going from 40+ hours a week to 0 to be enormously beneficial as have all my friends who are now retired (none of us can work out how we had the time to work given how busy we all are).
The idea of a sliding scale of hours worked down to full retirement is impractical. How the heck do employers plan for replacement?
B&Q make it work....It isn't that hard, how do you plan anything if you know it coming...That's the crucial bit you know this is coming. Many companies already make job shares and people working 3-4 days a week absolutely fine.
B&Q can make having part time shop assistants work, as can just about everybody. Now lets us think about someone who has been managing a department of N people essential to the organisation's purpose. How does that manager gradually withdraw over a period of years and someone else gradually step up to the plate over a period of years? How, when it comes down to it, can anyone be a part-time leader?
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
Labour's proposal to cancel the planned increases in pension age is the single most barmy measure in the whole barmy sweet-bag. We actually need to be discussing whether and when more increases will be needed, beyond those already planned.
The big thing that a sensible government should be doing is looking at way to encourage phased retirement. It is bonkers that is this day and age at 65 ot 68 etc you go from 40hrs a week to 0. It would be far more sensible to have it that throughout your 60's you start to reduce the number of hours, also better for people's health etc etc etc.
Actually I found going from 40+ hours a week to 0 to be enormously beneficial as have all my friends who are now retired (none of us can work out how we had the time to work given how busy we all are).
The idea of a sliding scale of hours worked down to full retirement is impractical. How the heck do employers plan for replacement?
B&Q make it work....It isn't that hard, how do you plan anything if you know it coming...That's the crucial bit you know this is coming. Many companies already make job shares and people working 3-4 days a week absolutely fine.
B&Q can make having part time shop assistants work, as can just about everybody. Now lets us think about someone who has been managing a department of N people essential to the organisation's purpose. How does that manager gradually withdraw over a period of years and someone else gradually step up to the plate over a period of years? How, when it comes down to it, can anyone be a part-time leader?
It already happens in the modern work place.
Really? Where? Some case studies please.
Phased retirement is quite common at all levels in the NHS, from Consultants to clerical staff.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
That's not capital expenditure, it's revenue expenditure. Trust a Lib.Dem to get it wrong.
It is expenditure. Don't understand why Capital expenditure is OK for goverments - in industry it is paid for over a number of years depending on the life of the asset (depreciation). Government capital expenditure doesn't appear to be paid for ever!
Steve Webb didn't in fact say what sort it was.
Our state pension system doesn't involve investment now for benefits in future years. It's a pay as you go system. Money taken in from working age adults roughly equals money paid out to oldies in that year.
Looking at Wikipedia our statutory retirement age is if anything average to slightly above.
So, in some developed countries, you'd now expect several more years of retirement than UK pensioners enjoy. If that's Labour's argument, it seems perfectly valid.
@Richard_Nabavi These Lib Dem subsamples look utterly catastrophic to me
Every cloud has a silver lining though...
checks spread bet position... open Sell at average 22.71..
Or a golden lining in this case.
I've got no open spreads but totting up a complete wipeout for the Lib Dems in England and Wales leaves me nicely in the black.
I'm hoping Alistair Carmichael is working his own campaign at this point mind...
I am good no matter any other results as long as Lib Dems stay under 19, which looks pretty much a given at this point. In betting terms the early overstating of the Lib Dems seems to have been the biggest opportunity so far.
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
On the comments downthread, my other half accuses me of having webbed feet, given how much water I apparently bring out of the bath. But I have the regulation number of fingers and toes.
Everyone in Norfolk knows that it's the ones from King's Lynn who are the really rum ones.
Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend, since I'll be on a plane that night. But I hope it's a good bash. The Lord Raglan used to be one of my regular haunts (I worked in the building next door for some years in the 1990s).
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
The other thing to bear in mind with Trump is that he was elected DESPITE the efforts of the GOP establishment. A number don't like him and don't think they owe him any favours.
They are still not going to hand the Democrats the electoral golddust of an impeached Republican President. The Democrats for similar reasons are going to want 4 years of Trump instead of 4 years of Pence, Pence is much more effective, much more right wing, and in 4 years the public will have forgotten the Keystone Kops President and will vote for Pence (especially if as expected the Democrats select some loony tunes left-winger)
Agree on first sentence. Second sentence is totally contradictory and disagree.
No democrat is going to defend Trump from impeachment regardless of what they think about Pence.
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
Labour's proposal to cancel the planned increases in pension age is the single most barmy measure in the whole barmy sweet-bag. We actually need to be discussing whether and when more increases will be needed, beyond those already planned.
The big thing that a sensible government should be doing is looking at way to encourage phased retirement. It is bonkers that is this day and age at 65 ot 68 etc you go from 40hrs a week to 0. It would be far more sensible to have it that throughout your 60's you start to reduce the number of hours, also better for people's health etc etc etc.
Actually I found going from 40+ hours a week to 0 to be enormously beneficial as have all my friends who are now retired (none of us can work out how we had the time to work given how busy we all are).
The idea of a sliding scale of hours worked down to full retirement is impractical. How the heck do employers plan for replacement?
B&Q make it work....It isn't that hard, how do you plan anything if you know it coming...That's the crucial bit you know this is coming. Many companies already make job shares and people working 3-4 days a week absolutely fine.
B&Q can make having part time shop assistants work, as can just about everybody. Now lets us think about someone who has been managing a department of N people essential to the organisation's purpose. How does that manager gradually withdraw over a period of years and someone else gradually step up to the plate over a period of years? How, when it comes down to it, can anyone be a part-time leader?
It already happens in the modern work place.
Really? Where? Some case studies please.
Phased retirement is quite common at all levels in the NHS, from Consultants to clerical staff.
Different jobs though, Doc. I am talking about leadership roles.
As an aside, phased retirement of consultants does not always work well, as I know to my cost. One day I am on the (kidney) transplant list as decided by the retiring consultant (who was winding down his hours) then suddenly I am not (as decided by the registrar who was stepping up) then next time I go I see the first chap who is miffed and wants to put me back on the list.... .
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
Labour's proposal to cancel the planned increases in pension age is the single most barmy measure in the whole barmy sweet-bag. We actually need to be discussing whether and when more increases will be needed, beyond those already planned.
The big thing that a sensible government should be doing is looking at way to encourage phased retirement. It is bonkers that is this day and age at 65 ot 68 etc you go from 40hrs a week to 0. It would be far more sensible to have it that throughout your 60's you start to reduce the number of hours, also better for people's health etc etc etc.
Actually I found going from 40+ hours a week to 0 to be enormously beneficial as have all my friends who are now retired (none of us can work out how we had the time to work given how busy we all are).
The idea of a sliding scale of hours worked down to full retirement is impractical. How the heck do employers plan for replacement?
B&Q make it work....It isn't that hard, how do you plan anything if you know it coming...That's the crucial bit you know this is coming. Many companies already make job shares and people working 3-4 days a week absolutely fine.
B&Q can make having part time shop assistants work, as can just about everybody. Now lets us think about someone who has been managing a department of N people essential to the organisation's purpose. How does that manager gradually withdraw over a period of years and someone else gradually step up to the plate over a period of years? How, when it comes down to it, can anyone be a part-time leader?
It already happens in the modern work place.
Really? Where? Some case studies please.
Phased retirement is quite common at all levels in the NHS, from Consultants to clerical staff.
My next door neighbour did that over a period of months before his retirement, 4 days, then 3, then 2... all on full pay of course.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Just who I want to performing heart surgery on me....
A surgeon with drink, drug, and violence problems, bet her waiting lists won't be long.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Just who I want to performing heart surgery on me....
A surgeon with drink, drug, and violence problems, bet her waiting lists won't be long.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
Be interesting to see what view the GMC take of this...Fit and proper person?
Mr. Hopkins, having read that, it reminds me of the ****ing insanity of that psycho who made his wife/girlfriend drink bleach and was being let off with a suspended sentence because he claimed punishment would affect his (fictional) cricketing career.
The other thing to bear in mind with Trump is that he was elected DESPITE the efforts of the GOP establishment. A number don't like him and don't think they owe him any favours.
They are still not going to hand the Democrats the electoral golddust of an impeached Republican President. The Democrats for similar reasons are going to want 4 years of Trump instead of 4 years of Pence, Pence is much more effective, much more right wing, and in 4 years the public will have forgotten the Keystone Kops President and will vote for Pence (especially if as expected the Democrats select some loony tunes left-winger)
Agree on first sentence. Second sentence is totally contradictory and disagree.
No democrat is going to defend Trump from impeachment regardless of what they think about Pence.
Worth remembering that while Pence may be more right wing, he is also more conventional as an opponent. He's just your bog standard god'n'guns republican. The Democrats know how to beat people like Pence, I think he would prove a much easier 2020 opponent than Trump will. Of course whether they can beat Trump or Pence will also depend on who they choose to run, and they will probably fuck it up.
Labour's proposal to cancel the planned increases in pension age is the single most barmy measure in the whole barmy sweet-bag. We actually need to be discussing whether and when more increases will be needed, beyond those already planned.
The big thing that a sensible government should be doing is looking at way to encourage phased retirement. It is bonkers that is this day and age at 65 ot 68 etc you go from 40hrs a week to 0. It would be far more sensible to have it that throughout your 60's you start to reduce the number of hours, also better for people's health etc etc etc.
Actually I found going from 40+ hours a week to 0 to be enormously beneficial as have all my friends who are now retired (none of us can work out how we had the time to work given how busy we all are).
The idea of a sliding scale of hours worked down to full retirement is impractical. How the heck do employers plan for replacement?
B&Q make it work....It isn't that hard, how do you plan anything if you know it coming...That's the crucial bit you know this is coming. Many companies already make job shares and people working 3-4 days a week absolutely fine.
B&Q can make having part time shop assistants work, as can just about everybody. Now lets us think about someone who has been managing a department of N people essential to the organisation's purpose. How does that manager gradually withdraw over a period of years and someone else gradually step up to the plate over a period of years? How, when it comes down to it, can anyone be a part-time leader?
It already happens in the modern work place.
Really? Where? Some case studies please.
Phased retirement is quite common at all levels in the NHS, from Consultants to clerical staff.
Different jobs though, Doc. I am talking about leadership roles.
As an aside, phased retirement of consultants does not always work well, as I know to my cost. One day I am on the (kidney) transplant list as decided by the retiring consultant (who was winding down his hours) then suddenly I am not (as decided by the registrar who was stepping up) then next time I go I see the first chap who is miffed and wants to put me back on the list.... .
Continuity of care is an issue separate to phased retirement.
The problem of multiple opinions is what to do next.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Just who I want to performing heart surgery on me....
A surgeon with drink, drug, and violence problems, bet her waiting lists won't be long.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
Be interesting to see what view the GMC take of this...Fit and proper person?
If it were a lawyer, the SRA would be tumescent with excitement at the possibilities. One would hope that the GMC is more mature.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Just who I want to performing heart surgery on me....
A surgeon with drink, drug, and violence problems, bet her waiting lists won't be long.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
The Med School and GMC are likely to keep her away from the profession, so it is not purely a matter for the courts.
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
Tories hoovering up ALL the leavers from other parties, and a fair chunk of the Lib Dem ones.
The remain, and aggregate vote transitions are dreadful too.
Labour held with majority of less than 15% that voted REMAIN, is showing a sizeable Labour lead of 39% Tory 48% Labour. Isn't that a bit big?
That's more or less no change since the last GE, or a tiny tiny swing to Labour.
48 - 39 = 9%.
Election night will be fascinating. labour holding on to seats with relatively "smallish" majorities but losing others on huge swings.
No. That is the general remain vote in Labour seats.
There are leave voters in those seats too. Lots of them. They are swinging massively to the Tories.
In fact I think there is probably a remain swing too as Labour voters were generally more remain than Tories. So to be within 9% of this subset is a decent result for the blues.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, .
Doesn't surprise me - free tuition fees, extra bank holidays, nationalisation of unpopular rail and energy it all has a willing market place. JC will outperform Ed (but still get thrashed)
Aww gee. After years occasional attendance on this site I appear finally to have had a comment forbidden. I must admit that it did contain the names Trump and Pence.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
Usual health warnings about sub samples, but that poll has Labour hitting 50% in London and the other regions pretty much matching the YouGov regional stuff from the other day.
Mr. Rook, good poll for Labour, but if they get 33% (did Miliband get 29-30%?) then it'd be bloody weird.
I agree. I still don't buy it, but I am beginning to doubt myself just a little.
Up until now, I've always read the available evidence as suggesting that the Lib Dems were worn down to bedrock in 2015, and this time around they should retain the same vote share plus a cohort of Continuity Remainers from other parties. I certainly find the notion that the pollsters' 2015 vote weightings are wrong, and are causing Labour to be undercounted and the Lib Dems overcounted, both plausible and appealing.
But what if I'm wrong, and we are returning (in England at any rate) to the pre-1970s era of two party politics? If, for reasons of policy or of sheer weakness, a substantial chunk of the Lib Dems' voters simply give up on them, then what's to stop an important fraction of them from going over to Labour - either because they are visceral anti-Tories, or just to try to block a Conservative landslide?
I'm still sticking to the polling fail theory in the absence of anything better, but we are in new territory with this election. We need to accept that our assumptions may be wrong. In which case, the Liberal Democrats may be at real risk of heading towards the old Liberal Party's post-War nadir of six seats in this election. After all, they are starting with 9 and at the very least Richmond Park, North Norfolk, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are all under serious threat.
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
At the flower show get it down you with both hands, Mrs. Free. Fizz at someone else's expense should never be taken sparingly. Then, with a pick me up the following morning (Worthington White Shield if you can find it or failing that any other craft beer still fermenting in the bottle) and a decent curry lunch you should be in fine form for the evening's jollies.
Health warning: LibDem supporters should sit down and take any prescribed medications before clicking on the 'LD-held seats in E&W' filter under Marginal Constituencies. Admittedly, those figures are based on a very small sample.
It suggests the general transition matrix of the last ICM :
Tories hoovering up ALL the leavers from other parties, and a fair chunk of the Lib Dem ones.
The remain, and aggregate vote transitions are dreadful too.
Labour held with majority of less than 15% that voted REMAIN, is showing a sizeable Labour lead of 39% Tory 48% Labour. Isn't that a bit big?
That's more or less no change since the last GE, or a tiny tiny swing to Labour.
48 - 39 = 9%.
Election night will be fascinating. labour holding on to seats with relatively "smallish" majorities but losing others on huge swings.
No. That is the general remain vote in Labour seats.
There are leave voters in those seats too. Lots of them. They are swinging massively to the Tories.
In fact I think there is probably a remain swing too as Labour voters were generally more remain than Tories. So to be within 9% of this subset is a decent result for the blues.
oh I thought those were figures for whole constituencies.......
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
At the flower show get it down you with both hands, Mrs. Free. Fizz at someone else's expense should never be taken sparingly. Then, with a pick me up the following morning (Worthington White Shield if you can find it or failing that any other craft beer still fermenting in the bottle) and a decent curry lunch you should be in fine form for the evening's jollies.
Oh, I intend to. The last time I got invited to the same event, I couldn't go as my son was taken to hospital and my father in law died (the two events were unconnected). So I'm hoping for a much more enjoyable time.
The combination of champagne and gardening is a match made in heaven for me.
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
Just who I want to performing heart surgery on me....
A surgeon with drink, drug, and violence problems, bet her waiting lists won't be long.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
The Med School and GMC are likely to keep her away from the profession, so it is not purely a matter for the courts.
A GP friend once observed that he'd rather be operated on by a junkie than a drunk. Something about shaky hands, apparently.
Mr. Harrow, spiders' webs are usually worse if they're given drugs, but one or two actually improve the quality of their webs. (Covered it briefly at university).
@Richard_Nabavi These Lib Dem subsamples look utterly catastrophic to me
Jo Swinson might be a good bet for leader after the GE, as she could be one of two or three Lib Dem MPs all north of the border !
ICM's LD seat subsamples are vanishingly small (owing to the fact, of course, that less than 1.5% of the electorate lives in LD seats.) In the last poll published, it accounted for just 29 respondents.
Even read across a whole series of surveys, you would have to conclude that the findings for a group this small are meaningless.
LD Held seats in England and Wales, look at the general picture. n = 118.
It's still a very small sample but look at the lines. Those are terrible news
No doubt about it, the LD failure to perform is the surprise story of this election. Huge potential to boost Theresa's majority and give Corbyn an excuse to cling on.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, .
Doesn't surprise me - free tuition fees, extra bank holidays, nationalisation of unpopular rail and energy it all has a willing market place. JC will outperform Ed (but still get thrashed)
With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
At the flower show get it down you with both hands, Mrs. Free. Fizz at someone else's expense should never be taken sparingly. Then, with a pick me up the following morning (Worthington White Shield if you can find it or failing that any other craft beer still fermenting in the bottle) and a decent curry lunch you should be in fine form for the evening's jollies.
Oh, I intend to. The last time I got invited to the same event, I couldn't go as my son was taken to hospital and my father in law died (the two events were unconnected). So I'm hoping for a much more enjoyable time.
The combination of champagne and gardening is a match made in heaven for me.
I have a complex and chronic condition whereby it is physiologically and psychologically impossible for me to refuse free champagne both initially and via constant top-ups when it is offered by a sweet (or even not so sweet) waiting-person at a drinks do.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, .
Doesn't surprise me - free tuition fees, extra bank holidays, nationalisation of unpopular rail and energy it all has a willing market place. JC will outperform Ed (but still get thrashed)
With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
@Richard_Nabavi These Lib Dem subsamples look utterly catastrophic to me
Jo Swinson might be a good bet for leader after the GE, as she could be one of two or three Lib Dem MPs all north of the border !
ICM's LD seat subsamples are vanishingly small (owing to the fact, of course, that less than 1.5% of the electorate lives in LD seats.) In the last poll published, it accounted for just 29 respondents.
Even read across a whole series of surveys, you would have to conclude that the findings for a group this small are meaningless.
LD Held seats in England and Wales, look at the general picture. n = 118.
It's still a very small sample but look at the lines. Those are terrible news
No doubt about it, the LD failure to perform is the surprise story of this election. Huge potential to boost Theresa's majority and give Corbyn an excuse to cling on.
No surprise to me - especially after last time.
Fair enough. I'd expected them to do a bit better at attracting the continuity Remain vote but they're standing still. Talk of them taking back Bath and Twickenham seems a distant memory now though!
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
At the flower show get it down you with both hands, Mrs. Free. Fizz at someone else's expense should never be taken sparingly. Then, with a pick me up the following morning (Worthington White Shield if you can find it or failing that any other craft beer still fermenting in the bottle) and a decent curry lunch you should be in fine form for the evening's jollies.
Oh, I intend to. The last time I got invited to the same event, I couldn't go as my son was taken to hospital and my father in law died (the two events were unconnected). So I'm hoping for a much more enjoyable time.
The combination of champagne and gardening is a match made in heaven for me.
Excellent. I will have spent the previous day at some corporate drinkathon at the Chelsea Flower Show and, assuming, I am not feeling too fragile I plan to be there.
At the flower show get it down you with both hands, Mrs. Free. Fizz at someone else's expense should never be taken sparingly. Then, with a pick me up the following morning (Worthington White Shield if you can find it or failing that any other craft beer still fermenting in the bottle) and a decent curry lunch you should be in fine form for the evening's jollies.
Oh, I intend to. The last time I got invited to the same event, I couldn't go as my son was taken to hospital and my father in law died (the two events were unconnected). So I'm hoping for a much more enjoyable time.
The combination of champagne and gardening is a match made in heaven for me.
I have a complex and chronic condition whereby it is physiologically and psychologically impossible for me to refuse free champagne both initially and via constant top-ups when it is offered by a sweet (or even not so sweet) waiting-person at a drinks do.
My commiserations, Mr. Topping, it must be hell to have to live with such a disability.
I'll just mention this, and leave others who are far clever than me to interpret the implications.
Boost for Brexit free trade deal chances after landmark EU court ruling http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/ The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas - including financial services and transport - the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.
Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.
“The Court of justice says all services - even transport - can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”
I'll just mention this, and leave others who are far clever than me to interpret the implications.
Boost for Brexit free trade deal chances after landmark EU court ruling http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/ The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas - including financial services and transport - the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.
Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.
“The Court of justice says all services - even transport - can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”
Damn ECJ, interfering and making Brexit work better.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
Usual health warnings about sub samples, but that poll has Labour hitting 50% in London and the other regions pretty much matching the YouGov regional stuff from the other day.
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
I'll just mention this, and leave others who are far clever than me to interpret the implications.
Boost for Brexit free trade deal chances after landmark EU court ruling http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/ The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas - including financial services and transport - the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.
Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.
“The Court of justice says all services - even transport - can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”
Damn ECJ, interfering and making Brexit work better.
But it does say that any non-standard legal enforcement mechanism needs nation state approval. Will TMay back down on the ECJ?
I expect I'm missing something, but I can't get excited about the Trump information-sharing thingy. If he'd shared information with N. Korea, that's one thing. But sharing information with Russia about marmalising ISIS looks like a good idea. Or is that not cricket?
Perhaps the fact that both are supporting opposing sides in the Syrian conflict is the bit you are missing
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
From the same general election, the Blow Monkeys recorded "(Celebrate) The Day After You". It was taken from the album "She Was Only A Grocer's Daughter".
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
All I know about Chumbawumba is they once tipped a bucket of icy water over John Prescott, so they can't be all bad...
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
I like to think the Depeche Mode lyric in Get the Balance Right has something to do with elections:
Don't turn this way Don't turn that way Straight down the middle until next Thursday First to the left Then back to the right Twist and turn 'til you've got it right
I expect I'm missing something, but I can't get excited about the Trump information-sharing thingy. If he'd shared information with N. Korea, that's one thing. But sharing information with Russia about marmalising ISIS looks like a good idea. Or is that not cricket?
Perhaps the fact that both are supporting opposing sides in the Syrian conflict is the bit you are missing
I'll just mention this, and leave others who are far clever than me to interpret the implications.
Boost for Brexit free trade deal chances after landmark EU court ruling http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/ The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas - including financial services and transport - the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.
Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.
“The Court of justice says all services - even transport - can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”
Damn ECJ, interfering and making Brexit work better.
Although the European Council could send the thing back to the member states if they feel like it. Depends on their sense of urgency ...
Mr. Harrow, spiders' webs are usually worse if they're given drugs, but one or two actually improve the quality of their webs. (Covered it briefly at university).
The iteration that struck me most was the spider on caffeine. We don't think of it as a particularly hard drug, but, man, does it f*ck spiders up.
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, .
Doesn't surprise me - free tuition fees, extra bank holidays, nationalisation of unpopular rail and energy it all has a willing market place. JC will outperform Ed (but still get thrashed)
With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
"Where's the Revolution? Come on people you're letting me down!" - Depeche Mode, 2017.
Mr. Harrow, spiders' webs are usually worse if they're given drugs, but one or two actually improve the quality of their webs. (Covered it briefly at university).
The iteration that struck me most was the spider on caffeine. We don't think of it as a particularly hard drug, but, man, does it f*ck spiders up.
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
I like to think the Depeche Mode lyric in Get the Balance Right has something to do with elections:
Don't turn this way Don't turn that way Straight down the middle until next Thursday First to the left Then back to the right Twist and turn 'til you've got it right
My favourite political anthem was always "We Can Be Together" by Jefferson Airplane. Nothing else captures so well the upbeat, positive spirit of rebellious youth. What a shame it couldn't be sustained into middle age and beyond (except by JC, obviously).
Chuck Berry's "My-ding-a-ling" includes the spoken line "you know that's a future Parliament out there". But the rest of the lyrics seem more geared towards political activities other than campaigning.
I expect I'm missing something, but I can't get excited about the Trump information-sharing thingy. If he'd shared information with N. Korea, that's one thing. But sharing information with Russia about marmalising ISIS looks like a good idea. Or is that not cricket?
Perhaps the fact that both are supporting opposing sides in the Syrian conflict is the bit you are missing
Both sides are opposed to ISIS.
According to the Assad regime ably supported by Russia all their opponents are terrorists, some of whom we and the US are supporting and arming....that hardly makes us the strongest of allies....
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, .
Doesn't surprise me - free tuition fees, extra bank holidays, nationalisation of unpopular rail and energy it all has a willing market place. JC will outperform Ed (but still get thrashed)
With this manifesto and a charismatic leader (think a British Yanis Varoufakis), we could have been kicking May out of Downing Street next month. Oh well.
"Where's the Revolution? Come on people you're letting me down!" - Depeche Mode, 2017.
Just listening to Chumbawumba's "Never Mind the Ballots..." from the 87 election. Is this the only GE focused rock record of all time or are there others? Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England... Still the best live band i ever saw...
I have a recollection of Alan Price doing a song for Labour in the 80s/90s where the chorus was "Vote Labour on polling day". May have been to the tune of Fog on the Tyne.
What chance of the Tories' manifesto containing a severe curtailing of the right to strike across critical public infrastructure such as the railways?
They may as well....they'll never get a better chance to put together that fantasy right wing platform they've salivated over for all this time....
Corbyn and his clique have all the strategic sense of invading Russia during winter....they really are running the hard left into a defeat from which they will not recover.....
Mr. Rook, good poll for Labour, but if they get 33% (did Miliband get 29-30%?) then it'd be bloody weird.
I agree. I still don't buy it, but I am beginning to doubt myself just a little.
Up until now, I've always read the available evidence as suggesting that the Lib Dems were worn down to bedrock in 2015, and this time around they should retain the same vote share plus a cohort of Continuity Remainers from other parties. I certainly find the notion that the pollsters' 2015 vote weightings are wrong, and are causing Labour to be undercounted and the Lib Dems overcounted, both plausible and appealing.
But what if I'm wrong, and we are returning (in England at any rate) to the pre-1970s era of two party politics? If, for reasons of policy or of sheer weakness, a substantial chunk of the Lib Dems' voters simply give up on them, then what's to stop an important fraction of them from going over to Labour - either because they are visceral anti-Tories, or just to try to block a Conservative landslide?
I'm still sticking to the polling fail theory in the absence of anything better, but we are in new territory with this election. We need to accept that our assumptions may be wrong. In which case, the Liberal Democrats may be at real risk of heading towards the old Liberal Party's post-War nadir of six seats in this election. After all, they are starting with 9 and at the very least Richmond Park, North Norfolk, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are all under serious threat.
Worth mentioning that in the pre-1970s period the Liberals fought far fewer seats - 365 in 1964 - 311 in 1966 - and 332 in 1970. Gaining 7 to 11% of the national vote under those circumstances was,therefore, a much better peformance than polling the same percentage today.
Comments
A top University of Oxford student who stabbed her boyfriend could be spared jail because she's so clever and it would damage her career.
Aspiring heart surgeon Lavinia Woodward, 24, met the man on Tinder but then punched and swiped at him with a bread knife during a drink-and-drug fuelled row.
She then stabbed the Cambridge-educated boyfriend in the leg before hurling a laptop, glass and a jam jar at him at iconic Christ Church college, Oxford.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/oxford-student-spared-jail-extraordinary-talent/
Looking at Wikipedia our statutory retirement age is if anything average to slightly above.
Our lifespan is nothing special. Some countries are 2-3 years ahead
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_life_expectancy
So, in some developed countries, you'd now expect several more years of retirement than UK pensioners enjoy. If that's Labour's argument, it seems perfectly valid.
48 - 39 = 9%.
https://twitter.com/PanelbaseMD/status/864432258295500800
The tables are now up: http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w4tablesforpublication150517.pdf
Caution: their VI appears to be derived directly from a subsample of 770 respondents who were rated as most likely to vote, simply with those less likely and the DK's removed.
This is the first Labour 33% of the campaign, and the firming up in their support would appear to be at the expense of the Liberal Democrats. I can't say as I find this any more convincing than any of the previous surveys showing Labour's performance mysteriously surging, whilst the poor Yellows continue an apparently inexorable slide into the Pit of Carkoon, but what do I know?
All I will add is that this is the 20th GB-wide poll that appears to have been published so far this month, and 18 of them have shown the Conservatives on between 46% and 48% (we've had two outliers only, one at 44% and another at 49%) - a remarkable record of consistency, and one to which we all seem to have become so inured that it passes almost unremarked.
Everyone in Norfolk knows that it's the ones from King's Lynn who are the really rum ones.
Unfortunately, I won't be able to attend, since I'll be on a plane that night. But I hope it's a good bash. The Lord Raglan used to be one of my regular haunts (I worked in the building next door for some years in the 1990s).
So much for equality.
Second sentence is totally contradictory and disagree.
No democrat is going to defend Trump from impeachment regardless of what they think about Pence.
As an aside, phased retirement of consultants does not always work well, as I know to my cost. One day I am on the (kidney) transplant list as decided by the retiring consultant (who was winding down his hours) then suddenly I am not (as decided by the registrar who was stepping up) then next time I go I see the first chap who is miffed and wants to put me back on the list.... .
The I didn't stab him - I just want to be surgeon! defence.
I'd be more forgiving, she attended a dump, and clearly couldn't cope with a guy who went to the finest university in the world, envy is such a terrible vice.
I'd give her a non custodial sentence, given the circumstances.
The problem of multiple opinions is what to do next.
There are leave voters in those seats too. Lots of them. They are swinging massively to the Tories.
In fact I think there is probably a remain swing too as Labour voters were generally more remain than Tories. So to be within 9% of this subset is a decent result for the blues.
Up until now, I've always read the available evidence as suggesting that the Lib Dems were worn down to bedrock in 2015, and this time around they should retain the same vote share plus a cohort of Continuity Remainers from other parties. I certainly find the notion that the pollsters' 2015 vote weightings are wrong, and are causing Labour to be undercounted and the Lib Dems overcounted, both plausible and appealing.
But what if I'm wrong, and we are returning (in England at any rate) to the pre-1970s era of two party politics? If, for reasons of policy or of sheer weakness, a substantial chunk of the Lib Dems' voters simply give up on them, then what's to stop an important fraction of them from going over to Labour - either because they are visceral anti-Tories, or just to try to block a Conservative landslide?
I'm still sticking to the polling fail theory in the absence of anything better, but we are in new territory with this election. We need to accept that our assumptions may be wrong. In which case, the Liberal Democrats may be at real risk of heading towards the old Liberal Party's post-War nadir of six seats in this election. After all, they are starting with 9 and at the very least Richmond Park, North Norfolk, Southport and Carshalton & Wallington are all under serious threat.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/tim-farron-labour-party-already-dead/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
The combination of champagne and gardening is a match made in heaven for me.
https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/864480195230740484
(Petty schadenfreude towards the LibDems is one of the only comforts us Labour people have at the moment!)
Boost for Brexit free trade deal chances after landmark EU court ruling
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/16/boost-brexit-free-trade-deal-chances-landmark-eu-court-ruling/
The much-anticipated decision from the court in Luxembourg surprised experts by ruling that on key areas - including financial services and transport - the European Union does not need to seek ratification of a trade deal by the EU’s 38 national and local parliaments.
Trade experts said the ECJ ruling could substantially reduce the risk of any future EU-UK free trade agreement getting bogged down in the EU national parliaments, opening the way for an FTA to be agreed by a qualified majority vote of EU member states.
“The Court of justice says all services - even transport - can be ratified by a qualified majority vote, which is potentially quite a big opening for the UK,” said Steve Peers, professor of EU law at Essex University. “It could certainly make things easier.”
Misty eyed, amazing, my transformation over 30 years from skint, lefty crusty sympathising inner city Leeds bedsit to right wing solicitor in Deep England...
Still the best live band i ever saw...
Perhaps the fact that both are supporting opposing sides in the Syrian conflict is the bit you are missing
That tells us all we need to know about where Labour's vote is firming up.
Don't turn this way
Don't turn that way
Straight down the middle until next Thursday
First to the left
Then back to the right
Twist and turn 'til you've got it right
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4vvYc6q7-Os
Come on people you're letting me down!" - Depeche Mode, 2017.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39932366
Jezza might take us back to 70s England, but the EU propaganda is straight outta the 50s behind the Iron Curtain
https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/864494056835092480
I did hear rumblings that they might hold one, although October doesn't feel very snappy.
I would have thought that would have been one of their very highest priorities.
Particularly as it would help far, far more people than some of their other giveaways.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4W5aKwrsYIM
Kantar TNS:
Tory 47 Labour 29 LD 6 UKIP 4
http://uk.kantar.com/ge2017/2017/political-echo-chamber-fails-to-boost-labour/
Corbyn and his clique have all the strategic sense of invading Russia during winter....they really are running the hard left into a defeat from which they will not recover.....