politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How much of Scotand will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

System · May 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How much of Scotand will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

In 2010 Scottish politics look set in some Jurassic age. Not a seat changed hands. Scottish Labour dinosaurs ruled the roost and played on the national stage. In 2015, post referendum, the asteroid struck; an astonishing SNP tsunami, whose power was foreseen by few except Alastair Meeks, swept the SNP to a stunning 56 seats. The old Labour dominance was destroyed forever. What does 2017 hold for us?

Read the full story here

RobinWiggs · May 2017

Firstarooney!

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Second like SCON!

SimonStClare · May 2017

Morning all.

Helpful thread DavidL, many thanks. – Looks like Edinburgh Zoo will need a few more pandas.

RobD · May 2017

Thanks DavidL! I am looking forward to the big night.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Agree with DavidL - we're past peak SNP, but they are a long way up and will take quite a while to come down...

JackW · May 2017

Scottish Tory Klaxon Mezzo Forte

foxinsoxuk · May 2017

A bit more variety in Scottish MP's would probably be a healthy thing, but I do agree that there is not much value left in the bettinv. Indeed it may well lie in SNP holds, as it is in Lab holds in England.

rkrkrk · May 2017

Great article. You've convinced me to make small bets on SNP in a few places.

DavidL · May 2017

I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

SouthamObserver · May 2017

Memo to Theresa May: walk slowly backwards, away from Donald Trump. You made a very bad mistake offering him a state visit when you walked hand in hand with him earlier this year. Luckily for you, your political opponent is Jeremy Corbyn so you will get away with it. But it does not serve your interests or the UK's interests to go anywhere near him now. Put that visit off for as long as you possibly can.

alex. · May 2017

Whilst it is a high risk strategy, is there not an argument that a Sindy ref 2 could be good for Scotland economically? By removing a lot of the uncertainty of the business environment in which it currently finds itself. And allowing its politics to go back to issues that matter on a day to day level.

SouthamObserver · May 2017

DavidL said:
I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

Isn't IndyRef 2 exactly what unionists should want now? You can't say it openly, but if the SNP call another vote and lose, that's it, game over. They will surely split, too. And they will lose, won't they?

Casino_Royale · May 2017

Good analysis, DavidL.

Very difficult to fault.

daodao · May 2017

The fewer seats change hands in Scotland (apart from those held by D.Mundell/I.Murray/A.Carmichael), and the fewer seats the Tories gain, the better. Given that the Tories are likely to win a landslide due to the collapse of the UKIP vote in E&W, it is desirable to keep the size of that landslide to a minimum, and have Scotland represented at Westminster by a party that stands up for Scotland.

DavidL · May 2017

alex. said:
Whilst it is a high risk strategy, is there not an argument that a Sindy ref 2 could be good for Scotland economically? By removing a lot of the uncertainty of the business environment in which it currently finds itself. And allowing its politics to go back to issues that matter on a day to day level.

No because like the last time Scotland would be paralysed for at least a year before the vote and bitterly divided after it. Our economy is doing worse than the UK as a whole already on the back of the oil crash and the contraction of financial services. We have an urgent need for inward investment to boost our flagging private sector right now. Brexit is more than enough of a challenge on its own.

We desperately need a government focused on the day job of helping our economy, not obsessed with constitutional change. There is growing impatience in this direction and it is a part of the movement away from peak SNP.

Black_Rook · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
A bit more variety in Scottish MP's would probably be a healthy thing, but I do agree that there is not much value left in the betting. Indeed it may well lie in SNP holds, as it is in Lab holds in England.

I am inclined to agree: I've just had a look at individual seat odds with one of the bookmakers, out of curiosity, and found them offering only 5/2 on the Conservatives for Banff & Buchan - which, if the SNP were to be totally wiped out in rural Scotland, would probably be just about the last domino to fall. On the other hand, you can get 7/2 for Labour to hold Birmingham Edgbaston, rising to 4/1 to retain Cambridge, and if I were only more adventurous (feeling, as I am, more inclined to stick to commenting on politics rather than dipping a toe into the markets) then I'd probably describe the 8/13 for Labour retaining Birmingham Selly Oak almost as free money.

The odds elsewhere are quite something. The Tories are joint favourites with Labour for Luton South (Con target no.65,) and 1/2 to capture Mansfield (53,) which I've chosen as a bellwether because it's the most distant Tory target that would fall to a 50% Ukip to Con voter defection rate on its own. The Conservatives are also quoted as odds-on favourites for Penistone & Stocksbridge (70) and even in Sedgefield (87,) which I can only assume is evidence of animal spirits abounding amongst the punters rather than a serious assessment of the facts on the ground.

Personally I would like to see the Scottish Tories do well, but my main priority is keeping England safe from the Labour Party. Wearing down the SNP is a generational project; hopefully we only have to wait another three-and-a-bit weeks to see Labour pulverised.

After all, there are only 22 campaigning days left for the Labour Party to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and his rotten accomplices and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is just what we always wanted.

Black_Rook · May 2017

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:
I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

Isn't IndyRef 2 exactly what unionists should want now? You can't say it openly, but if the SNP call another vote and lose, that's it, game over. They will surely split, too. And they will lose, won't they?

The SNP would probably lose, but they certainly wouldn't split. It would be a carbon copy of the situation after the first referendum: manoeuvring for a third referendum would start the morning after the second one was lost.

Wearing support for independence in Scotland back down from 45% to the previous long-term rate of a third may not be possible, and if it is it's going to take a bloody long time to do it. For so long as independence is such a popular proposition, the SNP will remain the dominant party in Scotland and the constitution will continue to overshadow everything else - regardless of how many referendums are held on it.

HaroldO · May 2017

DavidL said:

alex. said:
Whilst it is a high risk strategy, is there not an argument that a Sindy ref 2 could be good for Scotland economically? By removing a lot of the uncertainty of the business environment in which it currently finds itself. And allowing its politics to go back to issues that matter on a day to day level.
No because like the last time Scotland would be paralysed for at least a year before the vote and bitterly divided after it. Our economy is doing worse than the UK as a whole already on the back of the oil crash and the contraction of financial services. We have an urgent need for inward investment to boost our flagging private sector right now. Brexit is more than enough of a challenge on its own.

We desperately need a government focused on the day job of helping our economy, not obsessed with constitutional change. There is growing impatience in this direction and it is a part of the movement away from peak SNP.

A big issue is the SNP have the policy depth of a puddle, a small puddle at that. They've expanded so quickly they've had to take on anyone and everyone and mostly they are only able to parrot party line, they lack the experience and brains to do much else.
Similarly to the SCon surge really, they've had to take on people that have turned out to have....Interesting views shall we say, as councillors. Before them Ukip had the same problem.
The pool of potential politicians is small, due to ability and the abuse you receive so it's the good and the nuts that make it.

DavidL · May 2017

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:
I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

Isn't IndyRef 2 exactly what unionists should want now? You can't say it openly, but if the SNP call another vote and lose, that's it, game over. They will surely split, too. And they will lose, won't they?
The SNP would probably lose, but they certainly wouldn't split. It would be a carbon copy of the situation after the first referendum: manoeuvring for a third referendum would start the morning after the second one was lost.

Wearing support for independence in Scotland back down from 45% to the previous long-term rate of a third may not be possible, and if it is it's going to take a bloody long time to do it. For so long as independence is such a popular proposition, the SNP will remain the dominant party in Scotland and the constitution will continue to overshadow everything else - regardless of how many referendums are held on it.

A major problem for the Unionists is that Ruth Davidson's Tories are now the principal opposition. I really struggle to see that resulting in anything other than SNP dominance for a very long time. The odd councillor in Shettleston notwithstanding there are very definite limits to how far the Tories can go in Scotland. Only yesterday I had coffee with an ex Labour MP who admitted he would still rather have the SNP win a seat than the Tories.

The first step is to make the SNP look more like a normal political party and less like a movement. Incompetent, inept and wasteful, just like all the others. We have only just started on that road but Nicola's responses about Scottish education being wonderful apart from the reading and the counting shows what a rich seam there is to mine there.

foxinsoxuk · May 2017

Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.

DavidL · May 2017

HaroldO said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:
.

A big issue is the SNP have the policy depth of a puddle, a small puddle at that. They've expanded so quickly they've had to take on anyone and everyone and mostly they are only able to parrot party line, they lack the experience and brains to do much else.
Similarly to the SCon surge really, they've had to take on people that have turned out to have....Interesting views shall we say, as councillors. Before them Ukip had the same problem.
The pool of potential politicians is small, due to ability and the abuse you receive so it's the good and the nuts that make it.

There is a depressing lack of talent in all political parties. It is a career that appeals to the narcissist and the masochist along with the genuine nutter. The SNP are no worse and no better in this regard than the others.

What the last 13 months of no legislation (other than the budget) have shown is a party which really struggles to agree on a way forward for Scotland, other than independence of course. The centralisations of the last few years such as Police Scotland and the Care Commission have not proved successful or popular. A bureaucratic mindset which thinks the answer to everything is more boxes to tick and forms to complete shows a desperate lack of imagination or vision. It's depressing but sadly it is not unique to the SNP.

felix · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.

The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.

ydoethur · May 2017

Reasons why Ashworth would be a good successor to Corbyn no. 5:

https://labourlist.org/2017/05/tory-voters-are-our-friends-neighbours-and-relatives-says-ashworth/

Athough that does presuppose Labour will wish to return to power rather than remain a fringe protest movement led by a man who changes his mind on his principles (including the principle of never changing his mind on the issues) from day to day!

Edit - I do disagree with him on one thing. I don't think that the demonisation is inadvertent. Labour's more rabid supporters genuinely do believe they are right and nice and good on every point and therefore anyone who agrees with them is evil and monstrous and unfit to be called human. The irony that this allows them to cosy up to terrorists and make common cause with Holocaust deniers and call for people to be murdered or locked up because this leads to the right result seems to pass them by.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:
I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

Isn't IndyRef 2 exactly what unionists should want now? You can't say it openly, but if the SNP call another vote and lose, that's it, game over. They will surely split, too. And they will lose, won't they?

Nope. Allowing Indyref2 allows for Indyref3, 4, 5...

Pulpstar · May 2017

Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..

foxinsoxuk · May 2017

felix said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.

The cannot take private insurance retospectively though!

foxinsoxuk · May 2017

ydoethur said:
Reasons why Ashworth would be a good successor to Corbyn no. 5:

https://labourlist.org/2017/05/tory-voters-are-our-friends-neighbours-and-relatives-says-ashworth/

Athough that does presuppose Labour will wish to return to power rather than remain a fringe protest movement led by a man who changes his mind on his principles (including the principle of never changing his mind on the issues) from day to day!

Edit - I do disagree with him on one thing. I don't think that the demonisation is inadvertent. Labour's more rabid supporters genuinely do believe they are right and nice and good on every point and therefore anyone who agrees with them is evil and monstrous and unfit to be called human. The irony that this allows them to cosy up to terrorists and make common cause with Holocaust deniers and call for people to be murdered or locked up because this leads to the right result seems to pass them by.

Ashworth was a rarity in the Shadow Cabinet yesterday, on his policy day he didn't cock up.

Still 80/1 when I last looked...

DavidL · May 2017

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..

Sorry, you're right, Its called Ross, Skye and Lochaber now.

Pulpstar · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.

The brexiteers in my workplace are well up for it.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..
Sorry, you're right, Its called Ross, Skye and Lochaber now.

Easy to get confused with these silly constituency names with three and some even four parts...

Pulpstar · May 2017

I hope DavidL is correct as this haul would split the atom bettingwise for me in Scotland.

Can't say I'm too optimistic about East Lothian though, with Scottish labour going backwards still

(But it was 10-1)

Nigelb · May 2017

SouthamObserver said:
Memo to Theresa May: walk slowly backwards, away from Donald Trump. You made a very bad mistake offering him a state visit when you walked hand in hand with him earlier this year. Luckily for you, your political opponent is Jeremy Corbyn so you will get away with it. But it does not serve your interests or the UK's interests to go anywhere near him now. Put that visit off for as long as you possibly can.

Quite.
The scepticism expressed last night about the intelligence story - and how it got out - seems to be demolished listening to the BBC's blow by blow report this morning.
The details (that the sensitive detail included the location of the source; that the information had not been shared with, amongst others, the UK; that officials in the meeting contacted the CIA from alarm at the disclosure) are far too specific - and the administration denial so blatantly addressing something that wasn't even alleged - for the story not to be entirely credible.

felix · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

felix said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.
The cannot take private insurance retospectively though!

I have no sympathy for those who've failed to take residency for 19 years. If they've lived here full-time that is illegal.

ydoethur · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The brexiteers in my workplace are well up for it.

Which suggests that differential turnout could be brutal for Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Like her or loathe her, Theresa May has given her chosen target group a compelling reason to vote for her - vote for me and Brexit happens. Corbyn has offered the far left the possibility of renationalising water companies and the suggestion that public officials will be paid £30 a year (copyright: Diane Abbott) coupled with a change of heart over Trident and his long stated if not very credible pacifism. Meanwhile Tim Farron is offering the chance to protest over what everyone can now see is inevitable and Sturgeon has sportingly chucked away a fifth of her vote by telling them in effect that all she cares about is independence and hasn't got a clue about why or what happens next.

Theresa May is the most singularly fortunate politician since Baldwin lost the 1929 election and was thus out of office at the onset of the Great Depression. Like Baldwin it is hard to make a case that she deserves it. We can only keep our fingers crossed that she's not like him in other ways as well - the last thing we want is a government resolved to be irresolute.

Sean_F · May 2017

Black_Rook said:

foxinsoxuk said:
A bit more variety in Scottish MP's would probably be a healthy thing, but I do agree that there is not much value left in the betting. Indeed it may well lie in SNP holds, as it is in Lab holds in England.
I am inclined to agree: I've just had a look at individual seat odds with one of the bookmakers, out of curiosity, and found them offering only 5/2 on the Conservatives for Banff & Buchan - which, if the SNP were to be totally wiped out in rural Scotland, would probably be just about the last domino to fall. On the other hand, you can get 7/2 for Labour to hold Birmingham Edgbaston, rising to 4/1 to retain Cambridge, and if I were only more adventurous (feeling, as I am, more inclined to stick to commenting on politics rather than dipping a toe into the markets) then I'd probably describe the 8/13 for Labour retaining Birmingham Selly Oak almost as free money.

The odds elsewhere are quite something. The Tories are joint favourites with Labour for Luton South (Con target no.65,) and 1/2 to capture Mansfield (53,) which I've chosen as a bellwether because it's the most distant Tory target that would fall to a 50% Ukip to Con voter defection rate on its own. The Conservatives are also quoted as odds-on favourites for Penistone & Stocksbridge (70) and even in Sedgefield (87,) which I can only assume is evidence of animal spirits abounding amongst the punters rather than a serious assessment of the facts on the ground.

Personally I would like to see the Scottish Tories do well, but my main priority is keeping England safe from the Labour Party. Wearing down the SNP is a generational project; hopefully we only have to wait another three-and-a-bit weeks to see Labour pulverised.

After all, there are only 22 campaigning days left for the Labour Party to convince the people of England and Wales that a Far Left minority Government, led by Jeremy Corbyn and his rotten accomplices and propped up by the votes of Scottish Nationalists, is just what we always wanted.

I probably would make the Conservatives very slight favourites in Sedgfield, given the huge regional swing underway. OTOH, I'd favour Labour to hold Westminster North, where they're 5/2.

Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.

ydoethur · May 2017

ThreeQuidder said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..
Sorry, you're right, Its called Ross, Skye and Lochaber now.
Easy to get confused with these silly constituency names with three and some even four parts...

Surely not? Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey rolls trippingly off the tongue.

freetochoose · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.

Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.

Pulpstar · May 2017

The Lib Dem odds are perhaps right.

Edinburgh West is the second smallest majority, but has no incumbency.

ydoethur · May 2017

Sean_F said:
Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.

I think Labour will do well in London, Manchester, Bristol, Newcastle, West Yorkshire and Liverpool. They may do better than expected in pockets with similar demographics - Brighton, Exeter, Cambridge, Oxford, Nottingham, Coventry. In Bath and Cheltenham, it is very possible they will take enough votes off the Liberal Democrats to deny them those seats.

I expect them to be absolutely massacred in Birmingham itself. If the former Labour vote is behaving anything like those who said they would vote Labour last time before about half of them confounded everyone by not voting or quietly voting Tory, they could lose almost every seat they hold.

Last time I genuinely thought until the day of the election that Labour would retake Cannock Chase because Labour's target vote was so vocally antipathetic to the Coalition in general and Cameron in particular. What was less obvious because they didn't mention it was that they felt much the same way about Miliband. Those voters have changed and swung right behind May. They like her, and loathe Corbyn and all he stands for. The crash will be brutal. That is why I think there is value betting against both Watson and Phillips.

Oddly, one seat that may buck the trend is - you guessed it - Edgbaston! As the seat of the university and the most affluent part of Birmingham I expect it to be far narrower than a UNS would predict, and there seems a remote chance of a Labour hold even without Stuart.

Pulpstar · May 2017

On Banff specifically, it is the most leave constituency in the whole of Scotland. The Tory/SNP swing here will be the largest on the night, which is why I had a small (And it was small with Paddy's restrictions) tickle at 6-1.

peter_from_putney · May 2017

Thanks for the heads up on SNP seats David ..... I'm on! This looks like a close call but you appear to be on the right side of the value dividing line.

Pulpstar · May 2017

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.

I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?

Penddu · May 2017

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..
Sorry, you're right, Its called Ross, Skye and Lochaber now.

I thought it was Locahber no more, Skye no more ?

ydoethur · May 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

Am I the only one who finds it deliciously ironic that EU nationals have to demonstrate they have private health insurance in order to work in the NHS?

That's a really brilliant piece of silly box-ticking!

Mind you, I understand it must be doubly frustrating for them.

SquareRoot · May 2017

SouthamObserver said:
Memo to Theresa May: walk slowly backwards, away from Donald Trump. You made a very bad mistake offering him a state visit when you walked hand in hand with him earlier this year. Luckily for you, your political opponent is Jeremy Corbyn so you will get away with it. But it does not serve your interests or the UK's interests to go anywhere near him now. Put that visit off for as long as you possibly can.

She didn't walk hand in hand, she offered her hand to help him down the steps. IIRC

Morris_Dancer · May 2017

Och aye tha noo, everyone.

Good article, Mr. L. Got a few bets on Scottish Conservative victories, so let's hope they do well.

Blackadder gain Roxburgh, Selkirk and Peebles is nailed on, though.

I'll not plug this much more, but a splendid new story by me (Robin Hood meets Ancient China) came out yesterday, and it's free. Short, but fun, not unlike Kylie Minogue: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Phoenix-Rising-Wandering-Roaming-Tiger-ebook/dp/B071LCLJYY/

Nigelb · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?

Clearly not.

freetochoose · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?

Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

In other news he went to an NHS dinner where some people are voting Labour and someone else Women's Equality. Hold the front page.

Sean_F · May 2017

ydoethur said:

Sean_F said:
Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.
I think Labour will do well in London, Manchester, Bristol, Newcastle, West Yorkshire and Liverpool. They may do better than expected in pockets with similar demographics - Brighton, Exeter, Cambridge, Oxford, Nottingham, Coventry. In Bath and Cheltenham, it is very possible they will take enough votes off the Liberal Democrats to deny them those seats.

I expect them to be absolutely massacred in Birmingham itself. If the former Labour vote is behaving anything like those who said they would vote Labour last time before about half of them confounded everyone by not voting or quietly voting Tory, they could lose almost every seat they hold.

Last time I genuinely thought until the day of the election that Labour would retake Cannock Chase because Labour's target vote was so vocally antipathetic to the Coalition in general and Cameron in particular. What was less obvious because they didn't mention it was that they felt much the same way about Miliband. Those voters have changed and swung right behind May. They like her, and loathe Corbyn and all he stands for. The crash will be brutal. That is why I think there is value betting against both Watson and Phillips.

Oddly, one seat that may buck the trend is - you guessed it - Edgbaston! As the seat of the university and the most affluent part of Birmingham I expect it to be far narrower than a UNS would predict, and there seems a remote chance of a Labour hold even without Stuart.

Birmingham I find hard to call. It's trended Labour since 1992, but it did vote Leave, and is largely working class. I expect majority/minority seats will remain Labour and majority White seats will fall.

rkrkrk · May 2017

ydoethur said:

foxinsoxuk said:

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
Am I the only one who finds it deliciously ironic that EU nationals have to demonstrate they have private health insurance in order to work in the NHS?

That's a really brilliant piece of silly box-ticking!

Mind you, I understand it must be doubly frustrating for them.

Is that actually true?
I think you need the private health insurance if you were a student or not working within the past five years?

felix · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?

Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.

Pulpstar · May 2017

freetochoose said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

In other news he went to an NHS dinner where some people are voting Labour and someone else Women's Equality. Hold the front page.

But there was no need to apply for residence as an EU citizen. I think your comment regarding the cricket would apply to non EU migrants, the Netherlands is hardly a cricket powerhouse.

I think you've misread his comment...

Edit: @Felix Never knew that regarding EU citizen residency. Has it ever been enforced here

?

Alistair · May 2017

Edinburgh West will go LD otherwise the world is mad and nothing makes sense.

DavidL · May 2017

Penddu said:

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..
Sorry, you're right, Its called Ross, Skye and Lochaber now.
I thought it was Locahber no more, Skye no more ?

I think it is over the bridge to Skye these days, which is not quite the same.

felix · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

In other news he went to an NHS dinner where some people are voting Labour and someone else Women's Equality. Hold the front page.
But there was no need to apply for residence as an EU citizen. I think your comment regarding the cricket would apply to non EU migrants, the Netherlands is hardly a cricket powerhouse.

I think you've misread his comment...

You still have to get residence as it affects taxes. Exactly the same in all EU countries. Maybe you need to do some reading up.

freetochoose · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

In other news he went to an NHS dinner where some people are voting Labour and someone else Women's Equality. Hold the front page.
But there was no need to apply for residence as an EU citizen. I think your comment regarding the cricket would apply to non EU migrants, the Netherlands is hardly a cricket powerhouse.

I think you've misread his comment...

Edit: @Felix Never knew that regarding EU citizen residency. Has it ever been enforced here ?

I've misread nothing @Felix sums it up perfectly.

A bunch of anti tory anti brexit NHS workers are whinging as usual, its boring.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

freetochoose said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

I'm not sure "not got round to" is fair - until last June there was no need unless they were looking at taking citizenship (which isn't, and certainly shouldn't be, required) and the form is ridiculously daunting. One of the things that I certainly hope the EU gets its way with in the negotiations is their demand that the process for existing EU27 immigrants to claim permanent residence be drastically simplified.

rkrkrk · May 2017

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.

Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.

JackW · May 2017

Pulpstar said:
Ross, Cromarty & Skye doesn't err exist..

Has Putin annexed them? ....

Rosstov Cromartiev and Skyeski !!

felix · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yep, its the monotonous handwringing of how unfair it all is, if somebody has been here for 19 years and not got round to applying for residency they have zero sympathy from me.

In other news he went to an NHS dinner where some people are voting Labour and someone else Women's Equality. Hold the front page.
But there was no need to apply for residence as an EU citizen. I think your comment regarding the cricket would apply to non EU migrants, the Netherlands is hardly a cricket powerhouse.

I think you've misread his comment...

Edit: @Felix Never knew that regarding EU citizen residency. Has it ever been enforced here ?

It's certainly enforced here in Spain. You don't get residence unless you can prove health cover either by the state if you work or private if you don't.

Pulpstar · May 2017

Ashcroft has Coventry South as likely Labour, and Coventry Northwest as leaning Conservative.

I know Cov South is a bit richer than Cov NW but even so I find that a massive stretch considering Coventry South's smaller Labour majority.

@Felix The UK probably never actually used the tools it was given by the EU on this...

Casino_Royale · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?

I love it, uh, oh yeah.

felix · May 2017

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.

It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.

That's certainly my understanding. Spain may be different, of course.

Patrick · May 2017

Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:

Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!

DavidL · May 2017

Alistair said:
Edinburgh West will go LD otherwise the world is mad and nothing makes sense.

There are over 30K Unionists in that seat and even in 2015 there were only 22K Nationalists, probably less now. It should be a dawdle but... Firstly, there is no Green candidate, secondly, the Lib Dems may well have been flattered by Mike Crockatt's personal vote and thirdly there is a real risk of the Unionists being fairly evenly split between the Tories and the Lib Dems.

The locals were hopeful for both the Tories and the Lib Dems and having chosen Michelle Thomson the last time can hardly have done the SNP any good locally but I just fear this is the sort of prize that might slip away with the SNP and Lib Dems both slipping back a bit but the Tories too far behind to catch up.

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

felix said:

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.
It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.

If you can actually point to a gov.uk page that says EU27 citizens need to apply for residency, please do so.

If not, that page that was linked to is clear: there is no need for EU27 citizens who are working, studying, self-employed, self-sufficient or looking for work or married to (or a family member of) someone who is an EU28 citizen who is one of those things - in which case, please stop causing panic.

Recidivist · May 2017

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.

The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.

Blue_rog · May 2017

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
I love it, uh, oh yeah.

Why don't you have a Jamaican Holiday?

rkrkrk · May 2017

On the health insurance discussion - if retired EU citizens have to take out private health insurance that will presumably be extremely expensive and a big deterrent to staying in UK.

HYUFD · May 2017

Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986

ThreeQuidder · May 2017

Patrick said:
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:

Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!

I'm not sure people commuting into Waterloo are that susceptible to voting for him, really - not many Labour seats on those lines...

rkrkrk · May 2017

ThreeQuidder said:

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.
That's certainly my understanding. Spain may be different, of course.

Spain does appear to be different:
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/residency-requirements-in-spain

Patrick · May 2017

ThreeQuidder said:

Patrick said:
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:

Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
I'm not sure people commuting into Waterloo are that susceptible to voting for him, really - not many Labour seats on those lines...

Indeed - but it is highly, highly visible to people moving around south London. Vauxhall itself is a Labour seat isn't it? (Hoey). Millions of people coming into and out of Lambeth, etc. London is not going to be a big Labour success this time around.

Sean_F · May 2017

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986

Trying to bring a party like Green Left into such a coalition was bonkers. It would be like trying to form a coalition between the CDU and Die Linke.

HYUFD · May 2017

In unionist areas of Scotland ie which voted No by more than 55% in 2014 I expect unionist parties to see a revival, especially the Tories. Those areas are concentrated in the borders, Edinburgh, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire as well as Stirling and East Renfrewshire elsewhere I expect the SNP to hold on and in Glasgow and the central belt it will be another SNP clean sweep. Unionists will also want to keep the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014 if they can

HYUFD · May 2017

DavidL said:

Black_Rook said:

SouthamObserver said:

DavidL said:
I couldn't find a market in it but for me one of the most significant things on election night will be the SNP share. With the Greens basically not playing they get the nationalist vote to themselves. I'd really like to see that down to the very low 40s. That will give the SNP the seats but perhaps make Nicola think twice about Indyref 2. For Unionists June 8th is just another battle in a never ending war.

Isn't IndyRef 2 exactly what unionists should want now? You can't say it openly, but if the SNP call another vote and lose, that's it, game over. They will surely split, too. And they will lose, won't they?
The SNP would probably lose, but they certainly wouldn't split. It would be a carbon copy of the situation after the first referendum: manoeuvring for a third referendum would start the morning after the second one was lost.

Wearing support for independence in Scotland back down from 45% to the previous long-term rate of a third may not be possible, and if it is it's going to take a bloody long time to do it. For so long as independence is such a popular proposition, the SNP will remain the dominant party in Scotland and the constitution will continue to overshadow everything else - regardless of how many referendums are held on it.
A major problem for the Unionists is that Ruth Davidson's Tories are now the principal opposition. I really struggle to see that resulting in anything other than SNP dominance for a very long time. The odd councillor in Shettleston notwithstanding there are very definite limits to how far the Tories can go in Scotland. Only yesterday I had coffee with an ex Labour MP who admitted he would still rather have the SNP win a seat than the Tories.

The first step is to make the SNP look more like a normal political party and less like a movement. Incompetent, inept and wasteful, just like all the others. We have only just started on that road but Nicola's responses about Scottish education being wonderful apart from the reading and the counting shows what a rich seam there is to mine there.

For the SNP to lose power at Holyrood Labour have to start to take a few seats in the central belt too yes but they have until 2021 to prepare for that

rottenborough · May 2017

Recidivist said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.

That was indeed, one of the points.

Pulpstar · May 2017

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Trying to bring a party like Green Left into such a coalition was bonkers. It would be like trying to form a coalition between the CDU and Die Linke.

Perhaps some stuff on animal rights and pensioners incoming then

chestnut · May 2017

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986

Theresa will be negotiating with an empty seat, and they barely have a say over most of it.

Let's see how Monsieur 24% gets on in France.

HYUFD · May 2017

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Theresa will be negotiating with an empty seat, and they barely have a say over most of it.

Let's see how Monsieur 24% gets on in France.

Legislative elections are next month

felix · May 2017

ThreeQuidder said:

felix said:

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.
It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.
If you can actually point to a gov.uk page that says EU27 citizens need to apply for residency, please do so.

If not, that page that was linked to is clear: there is no need for EU27 citizens who are working, studying, self-employed, self-sufficient or looking for work or married to (or a family member of) someone who is an EU28 citizen who is one of those things - in which case, please stop causing panic.

It may be different in the UK but non-residents have different tax rules and residency affects rights to benefits and health care if not working. Clearly this changes with Brexit and the onus should be on the migrant to learn the rule. That was my approach coming to Spain. As for your last sentence - grow up.

LadyBucket · May 2017

Having read the comments about Jeremy Corbyn's campaign manager, Andrew Murray and seen some of the details of what is in Labour's manifesto, I would advise Jon Ashcroft to bail out now. If he puts his name to this, then it will be hung round his neck forever.

Anyone who thinks Jeremy Corbyn is still a nice man, needs to seriously think again. He is just a front man for some really nasty people, who want to bring this country down.

Gallowgate · May 2017

Pulpstar said:
Ashcroft has Coventry South as likely Labour, and Coventry Northwest as leaning Conservative.

I know Cov South is a bit richer than Cov NW but even so I find that a massive stretch considering Coventry South's smaller Labour majority.

@Felix The UK probably never actually used the tools it was given by the EU on this...

Cov North West is beginning to turn into Solihull overspill. My Dad lives in the constiuency. He used to live in Solihull.

Pulpstar · May 2017

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Theresa will be negotiating with an empty seat, and they barely have a say over most of it.

Let's see how Monsieur 24% gets on in France.
Legislative elections are next month

I expect En Marche and Les Republicans will have a majority of seats between them, which will lead to a centre-right sort of government in France.

Bromptonaut · May 2017

felix said:

ThreeQuidder said:

felix said:

rkrkrk said:

felix said:

Pulpstar said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?

https://www.gov.uk/eea-registration-certificate

Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?

I may be misunderstanding though.
It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.
If you can actually point to a gov.uk page that says EU27 citizens need to apply for residency, please do so.

If not, that page that was linked to is clear: there is no need for EU27 citizens who are working, studying, self-employed, self-sufficient or looking for work or married to (or a family member of) someone who is an EU28 citizen who is one of those things - in which case, please stop causing panic.
It may be different in the UK but non-residents have different tax rules and residency affects rights to benefits and health care if not working. Clearly this changes with Brexit and the onus should be on the migrant to learn the rule. That was my approach coming to Spain. As for your last sentence - grow up.

I'm sure they'll learn the post-Brexit rule as soon as it exists and as soon as we've left.

HYUFD · May 2017

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Trying to bring a party like Green Left into such a coalition was bonkers. It would be like trying to form a coalition between the CDU and Die Linke.

Yes they are ideologically too distinct

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Recidivist said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.

You ever lived in Belgium?

Scott_P · May 2017

@MichaelLCrick: Good news. The great @SirDavidButler joins Twitter: father of British psephology; invented Swingometer; analysed every election since 1945

HYUFD · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Theresa will be negotiating with an empty seat, and they barely have a say over most of it.

Let's see how Monsieur 24% gets on in France.
Legislative elections are next month
I expect En Marche and Les Republicans will have a majority of seats between them, which will lead to a centre-right sort of government in France.

Unlike the Netherlands which has PR the runoff system should produce a clearer result in France

rottenborough · May 2017

LadyBucket said:
Having read the comments about Jeremy Corbyn's campaign manager, Andrew Murray and seen some of the details of what is in Labour's manifesto, I would advise Jon Ashcroft to bail out now. If he puts his name to this, then it will be hung round his neck forever.

Anyone who thinks Jeremy Corbyn is still a nice man, needs to seriously think again. He is just a front man for some really nasty people, who want to bring this country down.

More on Murray. Basically, a Stalinist. Which in my view means he is, how shall we put it, not entirely signed up to the idea of democracy.

https://capx.co/corbyns-campaign-chief-is-an-apologist-for-tyranny/

Theuniondivvie · May 2017

DavidL said:

HaroldO said:

DavidL said:

alex. said:
.

A big issue is the SNP have the policy depth of a puddle, a small puddle at that. They've expanded so quickly they've had to take on anyone and everyone and mostly they are only able to parrot party line, they lack the experience and brains to do much else.
Similarly to the SCon surge really, they've had to take on people that have turned out to have....Interesting views shall we say, as councillors. Before them Ukip had the same problem.
The pool of potential politicians is small, due to ability and the abuse you receive so it's the good and the nuts that make it.
There is a depressing lack of talent in all political parties. It is a career that appeals to the narcissist and the masochist along with the genuine nutter. The SNP are no worse and no better in this regard than the others.

What the last 13 months of no legislation (other than the budget) have shown is a party which really struggles to agree on a way forward for Scotland, other than independence of course. The centralisations of the last few years such as Police Scotland and the Care Commission have not proved successful or popular. A bureaucratic mindset which thinks the answer to everything is more boxes to tick and forms to complete shows a desperate lack of imagination or vision. It's depressing but sadly it is not unique to the SNP.

Decent piece David, I'm sure you're in the ball park.

On the topic of legislation or lack thereof, how would you define the SCon's policy offer, eg which pieces of your 2016 manifesto were you most disappointed not see enacted? The gormless Ruthy fanbois on here won't have a clue but I'd hope as an active member on the spot that you can put some meat on the bone.

Are you in favour of the reverse ferrets on the rape clause & prescription charges?

Roger · May 2017

The Tories are a bit like ISIS. They command a vast acreage but with very few inhabitants.

CarlottaVance · May 2017

Analysis on the two leader's GE campaigns:

Whatever the rationale, the only thing that's utterly clear is that Mrs May and Mr Corbyn aren't fighting this election in the same way.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39927866

RobD · May 2017

steve hawkes ✔ @steve_hawkes
So Shadow Chancellor admits the cost of renationalising water won't be in the "fully costed" manifesto

Oh dear.

bobajobPB · May 2017

Patrick said:
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:

Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!

You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/politics/2016/oct/03/tory-donor-backs-legal-challenge-to-brexit

Alistair · May 2017

HYUFD said:
In unionist areas of Scotland ie which voted No by more than 55% in 2014 I expect unionist parties to see a revival, especially the Tories. Those areas are concentrated in the borders, Edinburgh, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire as well as Stirling and East Renfrewshire elsewhere I expect the SNP to hold on and in Glasgow and the central belt it will be another SNP clean sweep. Unionists will also want to keep the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014 if they can

From looking at polling it seems Scotish certainty to vote is underperforming the national figure.

This is good news for SCon and bad news for the SNP.

Sean_F · May 2017

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

chestnut said:

HYUFD said:
Talks on forming a government in the Netherlands fail over immigration with the VVW, Christian Democrats and D66 wanting tighter border controls and the Green Left opposed. Gerry Wilders meanwhile has said he is ready to talk
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39930986
Theresa will be negotiating with an empty seat, and they barely have a say over most of it.

Let's see how Monsieur 24% gets on in France.
Legislative elections are next month
I expect En Marche and Les Republicans will have a majority of seats between them, which will lead to a centre-right sort of government in France.

The Left will be obliterated at Assembly level. The Socialists, Communists, Greens, and Melanchon are all running candidates against each other, and only have about 25% of the vote between them.

freetochoose · May 2017

Recidivist said:

freetochoose said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.

These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.

Errh, we voted to Leave

FF43 · May 2017

felix said:

foxinsoxuk said:

felix said:

foxinsoxuk said:
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):

Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.

A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.

The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.

A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.
The cannot take private insurance retospectively though!
I have no sympathy for those who've failed to take residency for 19 years. If they've lived here full-time that is illegal.

Not illegal. They have rights of residency under EU rules. Those rules will be taken away, so people who have made their lives here risk being thrown out. Hopefully this will be sorted out but the government have done nothing to improve their dysfunctional system so far.

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