I will grant it is not impossible but I doubt it for a few reasons:
* Narrow hold for Holyrood 2016 by Iain Gray who as SLAB leader very nearly lost this, his own seat, in 2011. This near political death experience must have been very motivating but he still lost some of his % support in 2016. His first time SNP opponent just lost slightly more.
* The bookies have Labour third in the betting so the anti-SNP vote will struggle to find their stronger champion
* This last bit may be critical. George Kerevan, an economist, was for many years a Labour councillor in Edinburgh. This will prevent a number of Labour leaning voters feeling desperate to remove him and risk a Tory gain (second favourite with the bookies).
But would Churchill or Attlee have known the answer to such a qustion? Or indeed Eden, Macmillan or Gaitskell? Douglas -Home certainly would not have had a clue!
Andrew Neil:- Can you name one company who bids for British Infrastructure where the most senior person in the company is paid less then 20x the lowest paid worker? Andy McDonald - I can't Andrew Neil:- How are you going to fund the massive plans for infrastructure if no companies can bid for the work?
I wouldn't worry too much about the Labour manifesto. The chance of it being implemented is 0.00% rounded to 2 dp.
Before today I was seriously conteplating voting Labour so that when they have a sensible leader they could recover. Not now, this party needs to DIE. They need to be repealed and replaced. The interview with Andrew Niel has helped make up my mind, it woke me up to how ridiculous the Labour manifesto is.
Andrew Neil:- Can you name one company who bids for British Infrastructure where the most senior person in the company is paid less then 20x the lowest paid worker? Andy McDonald - I can't Andrew Neil:- How are you going to fund the massive plans for infrastructure if no companies can bid for the work?
If no-one can bid for the work there's nothing to fund. It's the perfect undeliverable promise!
If 30% of people vote for this manifesto I hope it will put an end to the argument put forward by many right of centre Leavers that we are congenitally more in favour of free market capitalism than the continentals.
I highly doubt that 30% will but what about the remaining 70% of the nation are you ignoring them?
Amazing how for the far left of this nation 30% seems to have become a target rather than a floor.
How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax
Corporation Tax - £19.4bn
Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn
Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn
Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn
Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn
Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn
Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn
Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn
VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn
How many jobs are lost by increasing Corporation Tax? And how much does that reduce the tax take for IncomeTax?
How many of the top 5% will a) retire b) fuck off elsewhere? And how much does that reduce the tax take for IncomeTax?
What tax avoidance measures is the current Govt. letting slip to the tune of £6.5bn? Give us some solid examples. Or else we'll just assume it is complete bollocks.
Labour's economic policy. Written on a Rizzla.
I'm sure the governments of everywhere from New York, Dublin, Zurich, Dubai, Singapore, Hong Kong and many others are hoping Labour get elected. It's so much easier than it's ever been for HNWs and their businesses to relocate anywhere they like.
You don't even need to be a big business, places like Estonia will be more than happy to have you in a heartbeat.
Very true. My wife was at a conference in Kiev the other week, the new young middle classes there are people like web designers who can live like kings from earning dollars.
The IT industry outsourcing which was being done in India a few years ago, is now going to relatively poor but well educated parts of Europe.
I was very impressed by Warsaw, if you're happy to live in Poland.
Yes, have heard lots about Warsaw, also Bucharest. Mrs Sandpit is Ukrainian, she reckons you could live very well indeed in Kiev for $1000 a month. That's half my rent on an out-of-town 1 bed in Dubai.
Most importantly the Poles have ales now, plus the food is great.
Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.
Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
Corporation tax levels will still be low in G7 terms.
That's the scariest thing about this manifesto.
We should be cutting corporation tax right now, not raising it, because we're at a crucial moment when we need to reassure large multinationals and international firms that post-Brexit Britain is open for business.
If we do crash out in 22 months, Hammond is going to have to emergency slash to 10% to compensate. And the UK needs the flexibility.
Corporation tax rises on this level would depress overall economic output, lower the overall tax-take, and balloon the deficit.
But, perhaps it's easier for us all round if we stop pretending this is really about raising revenue.
First Labour is criticised about where they will get the money from for their spends.
Then, when that is explained, they get criticised about where they will get the money from.
Labour cannot win the argument.
As BJO points out, it will still be lower than G7 levels.
In 2011, under a Tory Chancellor it was 26%.
Anyway, the Tories promised to eliminate the deficit by 2015. What happened to this promise ? No one asks how Tories managed to pay their spends compared to their promises.
So, because the Tories pledged to eliminate the deficit in its entirety by 2015 - and have so far failed to do so, because it's hard - Labour should just give up on it altogether and just open the taps?
For the first time I'm not sure Trump will last the full term !
I don't think the GOP has the balls to impeach, but I wonder if the Dems will try and launch impeachment to taint those GOPers who opposed it in the mid-terms.
I mean just imagine if Corbyn had admitted to what Trump has just admitted to it.....
How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax
Corporation Tax - £19.4bn
Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn
Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn
Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn
Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn
Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn
Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn
Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn
VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn
Wow, putting aside the devastation this would cause to our economy and tax base they could get the deficit down to almost zero with that lot. I presume that was the intention?
Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.
Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
Corporation tax levels will still be low in G7 terms.
UK has the third highest effective corporate tax rate in the G20, which doesn't include countries like Ireland, Singapore, UAE, Cayman Islands or states like Delaware where much lower rates are to be found.
Recent experience shows that as corp tax rates have come down, corporate income booked in UK has risen and so tax receipts have gone up. Thanks to Dr Arthur Laffer for explaining why this happens.
That link also shows UK has the lowest average corporate income tax... I.e what companies actually pay as share of their income. It's also from 2012 and I think Conservatives have cut rates since then?
Yes, have heard lots about Warsaw, also Bucharest. Mrs Sandpit is Ukrainian, she reckons you could live very well indeed in Kiev for $1000 a month. That's half my rent on an out-of-town 1 bed in Dubai.
I've often thought we might see relocation like that in the internet age. Eastern Europe is a fairly short flight, good internet, cheap living standards, some lovely areas.
For the first time I'm not sure Trump will last the full term !
You haven't been listening to Y0kel ?
I did say this at the beginning of his term. It all depends on mid-terms. If Dems take plenty of seats then we are on for some kind of impeachment I suspect.
Before today I was seriously conteplating voting Labour so that when they have a sensible leader they could recover. Not now, this party needs to DIE. They need to be repealed and replaced. The interview with Andrew Niel has helped make up my mind, it woke me up to how ridiculous the Labour manifesto is.
Best to read it and apply your intellect to it, rather than going by how a Labour politician stands up to cross-examination in a TV studio by a Tory media man like Andrew Neil.
70? In one year in the 60s we had a top rate of tax of 102%!!
You're just thinking about income tax though I think?
True, and there has been a decreasing focus. But then why the shift 1947 to the 60s? Not a period I would have associate with a decreasing tax burden, with a national system of schools, plus the enlargement of the NHS, to deal with.
Andrew Neil:- Can you name one company who bids for British Infrastructure where the most senior person in the company is paid less then 20x the lowest paid worker? Andy McDonald - I can't Andrew Neil:- How are you going to fund the massive plans for infrastructure if no companies can bid for the work?
If no-one can bid for the work there's nothing to fund. It's the perfect undeliverable promise!
Who is Andy McDonald and will he be an MP in three weeks? i.e. does he have a majority of 10K or more.
Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.
Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
Corporation tax levels will still be low in G7 terms.
UK has the third highest effective corporate tax rate in the G20, which doesn't include countries like Ireland, Singapore, UAE, Cayman Islands or states like Delaware where much lower rates are to be found.
Recent experience shows that as corp tax rates have come down, corporate income booked in UK has risen and so tax receipts have gone up. Thanks to Dr Arthur Laffer for explaining why this happens.
Those data are from 2012... GO cut rates significantly since then.
The headline rate has indeed come down by 4% since 2012, the effective rate has dropped more slowly, and other countries have also reduced rates. We are probably about fifth highest at the moment (behind Brazil and Germany), were the figures to be available.
Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.
Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
Corporation tax levels will still be low in G7 terms.
That's the scariest thing about this manifesto.
We should be cutting corporation tax right now, not raising it, because we're at a crucial moment when we need to reassure large multinationals and international firms that post-Brexit Britain is open for business.
If we do crash out in 22 months, Hammond is going to have to emergency slash to 10% to compensate. And the UK needs the flexibility.
Corporation tax rises on this level would depress overall economic output, lower the overall tax-take, and balloon the deficit.
But, perhaps it's easier for us all round if we stop pretending this is really about raising revenue.
First Labour is criticised about where they will get the money from for their spends.
Then, when that is explained, they get criticised about where they will get the money from.
Labour cannot win the argument.
As BJO points out, it will still be lower than G7 levels.
In 2011, under a Tory Chancellor it was 26%.
Anyway, the Tories promised to eliminate the deficit by 2015. What happened to this promise ? No one asks how Tories managed to pay their spends compared to their promises.
As mentioned down thread taxes will not be lower than G7 overall for corporations, when you take into account other business taxes (i.e. Employers NI) then we have third highest already
The reason that people point out that it doesn't add it is because it doesn't add up. Even a basic grasp of economics explains that changing tax rates changes behaviour.
The reason the tories are not criticised is precisely because of the economic innumeracy of the hard left - there is no reasonable alternative.
Andrew Neil:- Can you name one company who bids for British Infrastructure where the most senior person in the company is paid less then 20x the lowest paid worker? Andy McDonald - I can't Andrew Neil:- How are you going to fund the massive plans for infrastructure if no companies can bid for the work?
If no-one can bid for the work there's nothing to fund. It's the perfect undeliverable promise!
Who is Andy McDonald and will he be an MP in three weeks? i.e. does he have a majority of 10K or more.
Before today I was seriously conteplating voting Labour so that when they have a sensible leader they could recover. Not now, this party needs to DIE. They need to be repealed and replaced. The interview with Andrew Niel has helped make up my mind, it woke me up to how ridiculous the Labour manifesto is.
Best to read it and apply your intellect to it, rather than going by how a Labour politician stands up to cross-examination in a TV studio by a Tory media man like Andrew Neil.
So what you're saying is I should vote for a party of government that can't answer simple questions on their own policy and it's implementation when questioned. That I should just take a punt on them that they will know what they are doing when/if elected? You really are a moron aren't you.
For the first time I'm not sure Trump will last the full term !
You haven't been listening to Y0kel ?
I did say this at the beginning of his term. It all depends on mid-terms. If Dems take plenty of seats then we are on for some kind of impeachment I suspect.
I don't think the Democrats would want to impeach, he (like Corbyn) is the gift that keeps on giving......and like Corbyn he is a a stupid old man that exults in adoring crowds...
I must admit though Corbyn's crowds of starry eyed youngsters are somewhat better looking than Trump's crowds that mostly look like those folk given a day pass from the local institution....
Still lower than it was under Thatcher until 1988!
But the present marginal rate falls on high incomes. I gather that before applying these Labour policies you pay a rate of 45% tax and 2% NI.
Why not raise that marginal rate on high to very high earners to the low 60s% *before* raising the tax rate on middle-high earners (around £100k) to 67%?
Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.
Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
Corporation tax levels will still be low in G7 terms.
UK has the third highest effective corporate tax rate in the G20, which doesn't include countries like Ireland, Singapore, UAE, Cayman Islands or states like Delaware where much lower rates are to be found.
Recent experience shows that as corp tax rates have come down, corporate income booked in UK has risen and so tax receipts have gone up. Thanks to Dr Arthur Laffer for explaining why this happens.
That link also shows UK has the lowest average corporate income tax... I.e what companies actually pay as share of their income. It's also from 2012 and I think Conservatives have cut rates since then?
Yes, they've cut Corporation Tax rates significantly since then - and hugely increased total receipts from the tax:
Before today I was seriously conteplating voting Labour so that when they have a sensible leader they could recover. Not now, this party needs to DIE. They need to be repealed and replaced. The interview with Andrew Niel has helped make up my mind, it woke me up to how ridiculous the Labour manifesto is.
Best to read it and apply your intellect to it, rather than going by how a Labour politician stands up to cross-examination in a TV studio by a Tory media man like Andrew Neil.
Surely the most disappointing thing about the whole Labour manifesto saga is that they could have kept some of these things back, short manifesto, limited pledges and fully costed. I heard Deborah Mattinson talking about 1997 manifesto and she said that you have to go out of character to get cut through, wouldn't a funded manifesto have done that. This manifesto is ridiculous, it's like the kind of thing a secondary school politics class would have come up with.
For the first time I'm not sure Trump will last the full term !
You haven't been listening to Y0kel ?
I did say this at the beginning of his term. It all depends on mid-terms. If Dems take plenty of seats then we are on for some kind of impeachment I suspect.
If I was them I wouldn't, if he is impeached he will be replaced by someone just as right wing but more electable. Their best bet is for Trump to be the nominee in 2020 and make him a one term President.
Yes, have heard lots about Warsaw, also Bucharest. Mrs Sandpit is Ukrainian, she reckons you could live very well indeed in Kiev for $1000 a month. That's half my rent on an out-of-town 1 bed in Dubai.
Downshifting for the win I would get change from $1000 most months including eating out for half the meals, $500 of that would be rent because I live in a tourist area so rents are high (by local standards) and would be half what I pay away from the surf.
2017 Trump exit date looking incredibly dangerous to lay right now. I'm "oot" as Duncan Banatyne might say.
Will Republicans really turn on him for this? And will it happen fast enough to have him gone this year?
Historical comparison... Nixon impeachment started on February 6, 1974 when house of reps passed a resolution. Nixon resigned in August before a Senate trial had commenced.
Things moved quicker with Clinton but think that was because Starr had been investigating for ages. Still took 3 months between house vote and senate trial. And that was with a Congress controlled by opposing party.
Morning all, enjoyable article. Once again Scotland is fascinating. It feels instinctively that the Tory surge that never comes will see them fall short of their hopes. The three borders seats should go blue but perhaps they will then face a series of agonising seconds with their 2022 target list crammed with Scots constituencies. Certainly odds are not attractive for the NE seats or Edinburgh. The value for me is In their over achieve bracket, seats in the teens they gain on a surging blue tide. If you think they will take Perth, Moray etc I'd be backing Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Argyll and Bute as these have much more attractive odds and aren't massively beyond the swing for say, Moray. Labour and the Lib Dems may gain a couple each but will be in deep doo doo outside their remaining areas of hard support.
Comments
I will grant it is not impossible but I doubt it for a few reasons:
* Narrow hold for Holyrood 2016 by Iain Gray who as SLAB leader very nearly lost this, his own seat, in 2011. This near political death experience must have been very motivating but he still lost some of his % support in 2016. His first time SNP opponent just lost slightly more.
* The bookies have Labour third in the betting so the anti-SNP vote will struggle to find their stronger champion
* This last bit may be critical. George Kerevan, an economist, was for many years a Labour councillor in Edinburgh. This will prevent a number of Labour leaning voters feeling desperate to remove him and risk a Tory gain (second favourite with the bookies).
Andy McDonald - I can't
Andrew Neil:- How are you going to fund the massive plans for infrastructure if no companies can bid for the work?
Is there a smoking gun?
Oi, the government, your decision to go for Brexit did this !
Riiiight.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/event/28051210/market?marketId=1.131081434
I mean just imagine if Corbyn had admitted to what Trump has just admitted to it.....
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/15/trump-russia-classified-information-238417
David Bishop, Elvis and The Yeti Himalayan Preservation
Always tempted by Croatia myself.
https://twitter.com/ontscandals/status/864184351612956676
I still think the witness intimidation and attempting to suborning perjury charges might be the best options for impeachment.
The reason that people point out that it doesn't add it is because it doesn't add up. Even a basic grasp of economics explains that changing tax rates changes behaviour.
The reason the tories are not criticised is precisely because of the economic innumeracy of the hard left - there is no reasonable alternative.
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/19/world/canadian-election/index.html
I must admit though Corbyn's crowds of starry eyed youngsters are somewhat better looking than Trump's crowds that mostly look like those folk given a day pass from the local institution....
Why not raise that marginal rate on high to very high earners to the low 60s% *before* raising the tax rate on middle-high earners (around £100k) to 67%?
https://www.ft.com/content/ca3e5bd2-2a7e-11e7-9ec8-168383da43b7
NEW THREAD
It was the decision of the voters.
Historical comparison... Nixon impeachment started on February 6, 1974 when house of reps passed a resolution. Nixon resigned in August before a Senate trial had commenced.
Things moved quicker with Clinton but think that was because Starr had been investigating for ages.
Still took 3 months between house vote and senate trial. And that was with a Congress controlled by opposing party.