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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How much of Scotand will still be in SNP hands on June 9th?

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  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    Javid is doomed imho. Osborne's last man.
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388
    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    Rudd for Hammond widely trailed.
    I don't see it myself. Not impossible though.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:
    What's that brutalist structure pictured ? A condemned Cumbernauld secondary school or detention facility ?
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I know you're a BIG fan of posting the same thing over & over again.

    Morning Divot

    Have you worked out who Nicola claims to be speaking for yet

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    Come on, get on with it. Hand over the book, so the IFS can get started.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Alistair said:

    HYUFD said:

    In unionist areas of Scotland ie which voted No by more than 55% in 2014 I expect unionist parties to see a revival, especially the Tories. Those areas are concentrated in the borders, Edinburgh, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire as well as Stirling and East Renfrewshire elsewhere I expect the SNP to hold on and in Glasgow and the central belt it will be another SNP clean sweep. Unionists will also want to keep the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014 if they can

    From looking at polling it seems Scotish certainty to vote is underperforming the national figure.

    This is good news for SCon and bad news for the SNP.
    Whats your best guess for SNP share please?
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,116
    Scott_P said:

    I know you're a BIG fan of posting the same thing over & over again.

    Morning Divot

    Have you worked out who Nicola claims to be speaking for yet

    http://players.brightcove.net/2540076170001/NykPWQNal_default/index.html?videoId=5178827459001
    For that moment when your Brexit reaming got just too much, you it would appear.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,071

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    Rudd for Hammond widely trailed.
    I don't see it myself. Not impossible though.
    Appointing the first female Chancellor of the Exchequer must have a lot of appeal for May.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    What's that brutalist structure pictured ? A condemned Cumbernauld secondary school or detention facility ?

    The "award winning" Scottish Parliament
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047
    Labour launching their manifesto at the University of Bradford. Does anyone have an explanation for why EM voters seem so solid for Corbyn whilst the WWC disappear?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.

    Not really. Everybody knows we're screwed...
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Memo to Theresa May: walk slowly backwards, away from Donald Trump. You made a very bad mistake offering him a state visit when you walked hand in hand with him earlier this year. Luckily for you, your political opponent is Jeremy Corbyn so you will get away with it. But it does not serve your interests or the UK's interests to go anywhere near him now. Put that visit off for as long as you possibly can.

    I would hope we would be increasingly careful what intelligence we share with the Americans now. Five eyes or not.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    My own personal suggestions as an Englishman looking north.

    1: Get GERS into running a regular surplus. Would put Scotland on a far more secure footing and make the question of whether an independent Scotland is financially viable an easy one to answer.

    Doesn't GERS include UK spending so it would be an impossible goal for the Scottish government?
    No it would not be an impossible goal as an independent Scotland would need to replace like-for-like Scotland's proportion of almost all UK expenditure. GERS figures have fluctuated quite a bit and it is not an impossible goal to reach a GERS surplus.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    Oh for God's sake. Another "ordinary" voter is speaking now. Get on with it.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Doing a YouGov now. The VI question is "There is a general election on June 8th, which party will you vote for?"

    Unusual phrasing. YG will need to be extremely careful about reporting actual votes cast if they keep this - postal votes will start going out within a week.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    What's Fox done wrong? Or done for that matter?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    He's not Brexit sec though is he. He is WTO rules sec.
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    BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191

    Oh for God's sake. Another "ordinary" voter is speaking now. Get on with it.

    bunch of sob stories that might not stand up to further scrutiny
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    Corbyn now on.

    Popcorn to hand.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Doing a YouGov now. The VI question is "There is a general election on June 8th, which party will you vote for?"

    Unusual phrasing. YG will need to be extremely careful about reporting actual votes cast if they keep this - postal votes will start going out within a week.
    Surely if they simply don't ask if someone has voted by post they can't report it and they can't be breaking any rules?
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    isamisam Posts: 40,930
    Scott_P said:

    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.

    Not really. Everybody knows we're screwed...
    https://twitter.com/godfreyelfwick/status/859824042244796417
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,047

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    Has Priti been doing well? I used to think she was slightly mad. What about replacing Fox with her?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    Launch was due at 11am iirc.

    If they can't launch a manifesto on time, how will they make renationalised trains run on time?

    The purpose of nationalising the railways is not to make the trains run on time.
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    sorry if already posted - Ladbrokes latest odds for Welsh seats http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-election-odds-40-welsh-13039510
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    What's Fox done wrong? Or done for that matter?
    Being Liam Fox.

    Why Theresa May brought that national security risk back into government whilst letting the likes of Dominic Raab waste away on the back benches I'll never know.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    How many "launches" have labour had? It feels like every day.
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    rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    Pulpstar said:

    Can we exclude all North, East, South and Wests from constituency naming schemes in the next round please.

    I'm trying to check two models against each other and extracting all the England constituencies I run into

    "Basildon South & Thurrock East" vs "South Basildon and East Thurrock"

    Why not just Billericay ?

    Sadly the consultation period for the boundary changes has closed now.
    We have some idiotic names. Wyre Forest's better known as Kidderminster ... absolutely nothing to do with Wyre North and Preston. Does everyone know that, even on PB?

    I think we used to name most rural seats after the largest town in them.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Launch was due at 11am iirc.

    If they can't launch a manifesto on time, how will they make renationalised trains run on time?

    The purpose of nationalising the railways is not to make the trains run on time.
    What gives you that idea? I mean banning Driverless trains is all about the customer...
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    RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,977
    So, this manifesto..

    They've gone all in. Which means, I hope, Corbyn and the far left will totally own the thrashing they're about to get
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    This comedy gold. He is now on about the quality of the people who will hold the "great offices of state" under his administration.

    Turns to look at Dawn Butler.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477

    Pulpstar said:

    Can we exclude all North, East, South and Wests from constituency naming schemes in the next round please.

    I'm trying to check two models against each other and extracting all the England constituencies I run into

    "Basildon South & Thurrock East" vs "South Basildon and East Thurrock"

    Why not just Billericay ?

    Sadly the consultation period for the boundary changes has closed now.
    We have some idiotic names. Wyre Forest's better known as Kidderminster ... absolutely nothing to do with Wyre North and Preston. Does everyone know that, even on PB?

    I think we used to name most rural seats after the largest town in them.
    My favourite bit of constituency name farce is that the northern most part of Thanet is in the Thanet South constituency.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    How many "launches" have labour had? It feels like every day.

    Well, this is the official one. So not more excuses about 'not commenting on leaks' etc etc
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Corbyn's speaking like a man who is consistently 15%-20% ahead in the polls.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Corbyn's speaking like a man who is consistently 15%-20% ahead in the polls.

    Well John the Marxist thinks that is the case.....
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    What's Fox done wrong? Or done for that matter?
    Being Liam Fox.

    Why Theresa May brought that national security risk back into government whilst letting the likes of Dominic Raab waste away on the back benches I'll never know.
    I'm no fan of Dr Fox, but this has been his area of expertise - in particular contacts with the Americans - for a long time and TM and he get on well. We won't know what Fox has been up to until we get a bit further into the A50 negotiations. Expect leaks on lined-up trade deals to put pressure on and keep 'good news' rolling.
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    PatrickPatrick Posts: 225

    Corbyn now on.

    Popcorn to hand.

    Corbyn seems not at all to know what he doesn't know. How he is perceived. How his worldview is past its sell by date. He should read the Dao De Jing on the required wisdom for leaders and knowing their limits:
    知之为知之,不知为不知,是知也
    zhi zhi wei zhi zhi, bu zhi wei bu zhi, shi zhi ye
    To know what you know and know what you do not know-then this is wisdom.
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    Corbyn's speaking like a man who is consistently 15%-20% ahead in the polls.

    He is.

    Amongst union activists anyway.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    TGOHF said:

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    Rudd for Hammond widely trailed.
    I don't see it myself. Not impossible though.
    Actually trying to think of a viable option worse than Hammond - not many.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    These people really don't have a f##king clue...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/16/was-mcdonnell-handed-deficit-note/
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    Student audience like the scrapping of student fees. Not realising it wont apply to them as they have already started their courses.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2017

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    Scotland prediction:

    SNP 40
    Con 12
    LD 4
    Lab 3

    Vote share: SNP 40%, Con 30%, Lab 17%, LD 8%.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    Student audience like the scrapping of student fees. Not realising it wont apply to them as they have already started their courses.

    It is the university of Bradford....
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255

    Student audience like the scrapping of student fees. Not realising it wont apply to them as they have already started their courses.

    It is the university of Bradford....
    Ouch.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
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    PatrickPatrick Posts: 225

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    A miraculous combination of hilarious, terrifying, sincere, incoherent, coherent and window-licking all in one manifesto.

    Is there a political betting offer on the Sun's June7th headline involving the words 'last one to leave' and/or 'turn out the lights'?
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    AndyJS said:

    Scotland prediction:

    SNP 40
    Con 12
    LD 4
    Lab 3

    Vote share: SNP 40%, Con 30%, Lab 17%, LD 8%.

    SNP 40 seats ! Boldest prediction I've seen.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    They are obsessed with rail renationalisation. Huge cheer.

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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    Has Priti been doing well? I used to think she was slightly mad. What about replacing Fox with her?
    She can do no wrong :-)

    Seriously, having her as Home Sec imposing migration controls would be a way to stop people pointing and shouting 'racist'.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    That should go down well with the PBers who are so anti private education, just think of all the grammar schools it could fund.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Student audience like the scrapping of student fees. Not realising it wont apply to them as they have already started their courses.

    It is the university of Bradford....
    tbf it universitied in 1966, so one of our older seats of learning.
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    ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    Doing a YouGov now. The VI question is "There is a general election on June 8th, which party will you vote for?"

    Unusual phrasing. YG will need to be extremely careful about reporting actual votes cast if they keep this - postal votes will start going out within a week.
    Q2 was confirm I'm on the electoral register at the postcode they have for me
    Q3 was the named candidates - presumably this is to allow for seats where UKIP/Grn aren't standing

    Then how likely to vote and how likely to change mind.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Amazing how it managed before zero-hours contracts.

    I suspect banning ZHCs would have surprisingly little impact though it'd depend on how it was done. The more important question is how to ensure that the right balance exists between employee and employer.
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    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
    I don't think anyone who can afford to send their children to private school will be 'crippled'. Some may, as has been suggested, back out, and spend the money on a new Range Rover or trip to the Maldives instead.
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    Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    edited May 2017

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    Nearly 25% is from vague estimates, namely items 4, 5, and 7
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    Why are so many of today's extremists fighting the man in reality poshos?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4508746/Corbyn-hires-Stalin-apologist-lifelong-Communist.html
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    I'll just leave this here...

    Jeremy thanks those in the party who have produced the manifesto in a very short period of time and thanks his shadow cabinet team. "If you look at it, you see experience, diversity, age range, and people who’s experience is rooted in real life experience, he says."
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    The tax bombshell has already been trialled this election. Labour has just given CCHQ the excuse to go full-on 1992.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
    I don't think anyone who can afford to send their children to private school will be 'crippled'. Some may, as has been suggested, back out, and spend the money on a new Range Rover or trip to the Maldives instead.
    Would be ideal for house prices near good state schools - they would go through the roof.

    Perhaps a better investment than private education - you get your money back anyway.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Pulpstar said:

    I hope DavidL is correct as this haul would split the atom bettingwise for me in Scotland.

    Can't say I'm too optimistic about East Lothian though, with Scottish labour going backwards still :/ (But it was 10-1)

    But the SNP appear to be dropping further than Labour - as evidenced by the Local Elections and the Holyrood results. Given that Labour did win East Lothian last year for Holyrood, why are they less likely to take the Westminster seat. Historically the SNP has tended to outperform at Holyrood elections compared to Westminster. 2015 was different because of the Referendum a few months earlier.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Patrick, still want to get the Book of Changes one day.

    Shifting to Zhuge Liang, according to him the second kind of decadence in generalship is to be jealous and envious of the wise and able. Not sure he'd approve of Labour's tax plans.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Patrick said:

    Corbyn now on.

    Popcorn to hand.

    Corbyn seems not at all to know what he doesn't know. How he is perceived. How his worldview is past its sell by date. He should read the Dao De Jing on the required wisdom for leaders and knowing their limits:
    知之为知之,不知为不知,是知也
    zhi zhi wei zhi zhi, bu zhi wei bu zhi, shi zhi ye
    To know what you know and know what you do not know-then this is wisdom.
    Donald Rumsfeld put it better!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Amazing how it managed before zero-hours contracts.

    I suspect banning ZHCs would have surprisingly little impact though it'd depend on how it was done. The more important question is how to ensure that the right balance exists between employee and employer.
    Because we have always had ZHC type employment ....Either casual work with no formal contract (a lot of pub work) or agency work.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    What's Fox done wrong? Or done for that matter?
    Being Liam Fox.

    Why Theresa May brought that national security risk back into government whilst letting the likes of Dominic Raab waste away on the back benches I'll never know.
    I'm no fan of Dr Fox, but this has been his area of expertise - in particular contacts with the Americans - for a long time and TM and he get on well. We won't know what Fox has been up to until we get a bit further into the A50 negotiations. Expect leaks on lined-up trade deals to put pressure on and keep 'good news' rolling.
    There is no way anyone is doing anything other than a brutally one-sided a trade deal with this US administration and this US congress. Britain won't, for one.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    These people really don't have a f##king clue...

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/16/was-mcdonnell-handed-deficit-note/

    Labour's entire manifesto is just taking the piss. Hey, voters, you are too dumb to understand so we won't even try - but here, have some brightly-coloured sweeties.

    The next three weeks is going to see Labour's economics pulled apart by the media with the glee of a sadistic child de-limbing a fly.
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    Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,987
    Mr. Herdson, not convinced we need a US deal anyway. We do a lot of trade and tariffs are very low, aren't they?
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    TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,388

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Amazing how it managed before zero-hours contracts.

    I suspect banning ZHCs would have surprisingly little impact though it'd depend on how it was done. The more important question is how to ensure that the right balance exists between employee and employer.
    Genuinely - how does one abolish zero hours contracts? You have a right to a mionum number of X hours if requested - but what is X?

    I think it would be workable if zero hours employees who actually work part/full time had a right to formalise that arrangement.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,255
    The irony will be how few of the many actually vote to support a manifesto entitled "For the Many, not the Few".

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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited May 2017
    Odd priorities for Labour. They're proposing to splash out £48bn a year more on current* spending, and getting on for a quarter of that (£11.2bn) would go to university students in maintenance subsidies and abolition of tuition fees. Contrast that with the £2.1bn on social care, or the £5bn on healthcare.

    * (plus countless further billions on nationalisations, infrastructure etc)
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    Has Priti been doing well? I used to think she was slightly mad. What about replacing Fox with her?
    She can do no wrong :-)

    Seriously, having her as Home Sec imposing migration controls would be a way to stop people pointing and shouting 'racist'.
    I don't really see the need for any reshuffle at the top tier. Most of them have only been in post for less than 12 months and are still in the mastering their brief stage.

    I would however make one exception to that, DEFRA. That department needs someone bright and a heavyweight to fight in cabinet because farming in the UK is going to be revolutionised by Brexit and it needs someone good enough to a) devise a new system and b) get it through cabinet, diverse committees and parliament.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
    I don't think anyone who can afford to send their children to private school will be 'crippled'. Some may, as has been suggested, back out, and spend the money on a new Range Rover or trip to the Maldives instead.
    Perhaps, although not everybody who uses private schools are rich. I went and am of working class stock, although I was able to get in on the assisted places scheme long before that excellent system was abolished. I guess this is more about taxing private education out of principle.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    "The longest suicide note in history" is an epithet originally used by United Kingdom Labour Party MP Gerald Kaufman to describe his party's 1983 election manifesto, which emphasised socialist policies in a more profound manner than previous such documents."

    Records are made to be broken.
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    PatrickPatrick Posts: 225

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
    I don't think anyone who can afford to send their children to private school will be 'crippled'. Some may, as has been suggested, back out, and spend the money on a new Range Rover or trip to the Maldives instead.
    ...and then who pays to educate their children in the state system? Every child that this pushes out of private schools pushes them into the state system. It's a net reduction in tax take. And alot of unemployed teachers.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,477
    Labour members/activists boo Laura K, again.

    Positively Trumpian
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    logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,721
    isam said:

    Scott_P said:

    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.

    Not really. Everybody knows we're screwed...
    https://twitter.com/godfreyelfwick/status/859824042244796417
    But experts can be ignored - a Leaver told me.
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    Pulpstar said:

    Can we exclude all North, East, South and Wests from constituency naming schemes in the next round please.

    I'm trying to check two models against each other and extracting all the England constituencies I run into

    "Basildon South & Thurrock East" vs "South Basildon and East Thurrock"

    Why not just Billericay ?

    Sadly the consultation period for the boundary changes has closed now.
    We have some idiotic names. Wyre Forest's better known as Kidderminster ... absolutely nothing to do with Wyre North and Preston. Does everyone know that, even on PB?

    I think we used to name most rural seats after the largest town in them.
    I'm glad that they don't do that now.
    Hertsmere would be named Borehamwood in that case.



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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Student audience like the scrapping of student fees. Not realising it wont apply to them as they have already started their courses.

    It is the university of Bradford....
    tbf it universitied in 1966, so one of our older seats of learning.
    And ranked by the times rankings (gold standard) as 75th...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Everyone's Christmas party just got a load more expensive, if anywhere with a function room has to keep it staffed when there's no events on!
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    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Has anybody told Jeremy that his new almost non-leaked policy of water public ownership is already the case in SNP Scotland?
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    BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited May 2017

    TGOHF said:

    Scott_P said:
    All gone mammary glands up since Osborne left the Treasury.

    Bring back George.
    and the deficit is set to go up this year too.
    Depends who CoTE is come 9th June I guess.

    Hopefully not Hammond.
    My instinct at the moment is that the re-shuffle will be limited mainly to a few people switching places. Leadsom will go and Hunt will be replaced if a suitable successor can be found; May might have the guts to send Rudd there (Fallon to replace, Brokenshire (?) to Defence).
    I always thought that Brokenshire should be responsible for local government reorganisation.

    In any reshuffle, I expect to see Priti Patel in a more prominent role - Brexit Sec or Home Sec?
    You can't take Davis off the job now. He is the only one who has any idea what is going on with the negotiations.
    No, but you can dump Fox.
    What's Fox done wrong? Or done for that matter?
    Being Liam Fox.

    Why Theresa May brought that national security risk back into government whilst letting the likes of Dominic Raab waste away on the back benches I'll never know.
    I'm no fan of Dr Fox, but this has been his area of expertise - in particular contacts with the Americans - for a long time and TM and he get on well. We won't know what Fox has been up to until we get a bit further into the A50 negotiations. Expect leaks on lined-up trade deals to put pressure on and keep 'good news' rolling.
    There is no way anyone is doing anything other than a brutally one-sided a trade deal with this US administration and this US congress. Britain won't, for one.
    They did a deal with China quickly enough. OK, not a 'comprehensive' FTA, but both sides gained something, even if you could assess US as gaining more. Remember trade is not a zero sum game of 'You win, I lose'. Both sides gain from increased trade even if one side has a deficit.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    scotslass said:

    Has anybody told Jeremy that his new almost non-leaked policy of water public ownership is already the case in SNP Scotland?

    Water privatisation might just be the economic kick start Scotland requires to get it out of recession.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Pulpstar said:

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    That IHT one is absolute electoral poison, and it raises buttons.
    VAT on school fees wont get £1.6b either. Many parents wont be able to carry on I suspect.
    20% tax increase on education, crippling.
    I don't think anyone who can afford to send their children to private school will be 'crippled'. Some may, as has been suggested, back out, and spend the money on a new Range Rover or trip to the Maldives instead.
    Wealth is distributed evenly, not in step changes, and there are therefore parents at the very bottom of the range who will be pushed out by a 20% increase. They are already driving shit non-Range Rover cars and not having holidays; not that I think that's necessarily a good thing, but it is a thing.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    I checked Hills, the Tories aren't 16-1 in Torfaen at all.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Is that all? Have they included employers NI there?
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Amazing how it managed before zero-hours contracts.

    I suspect banning ZHCs would have surprisingly little impact though it'd depend on how it was done. The more important question is how to ensure that the right balance exists between employee and employer.
    Because we have always had ZHC type employment ....Either casual work with no formal contract (a lot of pub work) or agency work.
    Indeed, which is why I suspect that a ban would have little impact in reality, and why it misses the important point about job security, flexibility and employee rights. If someone is on a ZHC, then they need the right to simultaneously take other employment, for example.
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    dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Sandpit said:

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Everyone's Christmas party just got a load more expensive, if anywhere with a function room has to keep it staffed when there's no events on!
    It's an insipid policy that will cripple many small businesses with variable shift patterns.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    How Labour would raise £48.6bn a year extra in tax

    Corporation Tax - £19.4bn

    Income tax increases for top 5 per cent - £6.4bn

    Excessive Pay Levy - £1.3bn

    Offshore Company Property Levy - £1.6bn

    Labour’s tax avoidance programme - £6.5bn

    Extension of Stamp Duty Reserve Tax to derivatives and removal of exemption - £5.6bn

    Efficiency review of corporate tax reliefs - £3.8bn

    Revising tax giveaways of Capital Gains Tax, Inheritance Tax, bank levy and scrapping the married persons’ tax allowance - £3.7bn

    VAT on private school fees - £1.6bn

    How many jobs are lost by increasing Corporation Tax? And how much does that reduce the tax take for IncomeTax?

    How many of the top 5% will a) retire b) fuck off elsewhere? And how much does that reduce the tax take for IncomeTax?

    What tax avoidance measures is the current Govt. letting slip to the tune of £6.5bn? Give us some solid examples. Or else we'll just assume it is complete bollocks.

    Labour's economic policy. Written on a Rizzla.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    No zero hour contracts. That's the pub trade gone

    Amazing how it managed before zero-hours contracts.

    I suspect banning ZHCs would have surprisingly little impact though it'd depend on how it was done. The more important question is how to ensure that the right balance exists between employee and employer.
    Genuinely - how does one abolish zero hours contracts? You have a right to a mionum number of X hours if requested - but what is X?

    I think it would be workable if zero hours employees who actually work part/full time had a right to formalise that arrangement.
    The one aspect that crept into agency / ZHC, which was wrong and been outlawed, was demanding exclusivity.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    edited May 2017
    Someone explain to these idiots that doubling the corporation tax rate isn't just going to double corporation tax receipts with no adverse effects. Actual company managers in the real world just don't think like that.

    Idiot relics from the 1970s, at least Michael Foot isn't responsible for the longest suicide note any more.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @singharj: Confirmed: shadow defence secretary Nia Griffith turned down invitation to be at Labour manifesto launch. She is out campaigning in her seat
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    FangsyFangsy Posts: 28
    Remarkable how all Labour's plan can be funded without a single penny of extra interest payments on Government debt.
This discussion has been closed.