In unionist areas of Scotland ie which voted No by more than 55% in 2014 I expect unionist parties to see a revival, especially the Tories. Those areas are concentrated in the borders, Edinburgh, Perthshire and Aberdeenshire as well as Stirling and East Renfrewshire elsewhere I expect the SNP to hold on and in Glasgow and the central belt it will be another SNP clean sweep. Unionists will also want to keep the SNP below the 45% Yes got in 2014 if they can
From looking at polling it seems Scotish certainty to vote is underperforming the national figure.
This is good news for SCon and bad news for the SNP.
As it is a Westminster general election I expect SNP turnout to be a bit lower than for a Holyrood Scottish Parliament election while Tory turnout will be about the same
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left. Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.
These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?
Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?
I may be misunderstanding though.
It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.
If you can actually point to a gov.uk page that says EU27 citizens need to apply for residency, please do so.
If not, that page that was linked to is clear: there is no need for EU27 citizens who are working, studying, self-employed, self-sufficient or looking for work or married to (or a family member of) someone who is an EU28 citizen who is one of those things - in which case, please stop causing panic.
It may be different in the UK but non-residents have different tax rules and residency affects rights to benefits and health care if not working. Clearly this changes with Brexit and the onus should be on the migrant to learn the rule. That was my approach coming to Spain. As for your last sentence - grow up.
My immigrant wife knows the rules. So do I. At least, I thought we did until you panicked me. So, no. You grow up.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left. Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
My apologies, Mullins is slightly to the left of Norman "Stormin' Norman" Tebbit - ergo a dangerous Leftie to your mind.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left. Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
Telegraph:
A strong Remainer, he’s disappointed in the referendum’s outcome, disillusioned by the failure of successive governments to embrace apprenticeships and generally disenchanted with politicians themselves....
Mullins says he is “fully supportive” of the Conservatives and believes Theresa May is “doing a great job” but sighs: “She was Remainer who switched camps.”
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.
These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.
Errh, we voted to Leave
Yeah and so you expect people to pop into their nearest Tardis and travel back 19 years to foresee that was going to happen?
EEA citizens had no obligation to apply for residency so why would it matter if they were here 19 days or 19 years? It was redundant bureaucracy the government advised people not to bother to do.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left. Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
Telegraph:
A strong Remainer, he’s disappointed in the referendum’s outcome, disillusioned by the failure of successive governments to embrace apprenticeships and generally disenchanted with politicians themselves....
Mullins says he is “fully supportive” of the Conservatives and believes Theresa May is “doing a great job” but sighs: “She was Remainer who switched camps.”
Yes, correct. None of that means he is centre-left. Or is anyone that is pro-European now considered a 'leftie' here on PB? I note you have abandoned your pro-European views to ensure you stay firmly on message Carlotta.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.
These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.
Errh, we voted to Leave
Yeah and so you expect people to pop into their nearest Tardis and travel back 19 years to foresee that was going to happen?
EEA citizens had no obligation to apply for residency so why would it matter if they were here 19 days or 19 years? It was redundant bureaucracy the government advised people not to bother to do.
Quite right. And the enthusiasm people now appear to have for oppressive paperwork and state snooping really is scary. The kick-the-furriners-out brigade are having a field day.
Edinburgh West is the second smallest majority, but has no incumbency.
There is a shadow incumbency in the equivalent Holyrood seat, which is why Edinburgh West and East Lothian are more likely to fall to the Lib Dems and Labour respectively than East Dunbartonshire to the Lib Dems IMO. I suggest Edinburgh SW is a better prospect for the Conservatives than Edinburgh S, but gut feel tells me it will remain SNP as Edinburgh S will remain Labour and East Renfrewshire SNP. The only essentially guaranteed non SNP seats are Orkney and Shetland for the Lib Dems and the Borders seats for the Conservatives. The others depend on anti-SNP tactical voting. The questions are how much and to whom.
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people). Dave and George were to the left of the actual centre of British politics for many issues, and certainly for the most important one of recent times. They misread the country because they don't understand it. (Same is true for Clinton but that's a whole other story).
I am to the right of the centre for sure on matters economic and to do with sovereignty. Probably to the left of it for matters social (gay marriage, legalising cannabis and soliciting, death penalty, etc).
You seem to be one of those who think everyone in the actual centre or a bit to the right of it is basically a mixture of Hitler, Genghis Khan, Beelzebub and Ian Brady. I think Norman Tebbit is very sound on economic opinion, mostly, but a repressive twat on matters social, for example. You espouse the destructive delusion expresssed by so many on the left that anything not lefty is way off to the right. 'If you're not Momentum you're a Tory.' I'm not way out there. I am a bit one side of centre for some things and a bit left of it for others. I think where you and I really differ is our understanding of where the actual centre lies statistically.
and the differences in the TV regions, really are telling.
Now, where did I put those YouGov regional splits again?
Woke up this mornin' thinking I was reasonably intelligent, but I cannot understand those graphs. Can anyone explain?
The pink and pale blue is the traditional swingometer, the dark blue is the seats Hanretty thinks would change hands based on current polling, and the black are seats that May/Corbyn have visited during the campaign.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left.
Your Europhobia has badly skewed your political compass. Is Ken Clarke centre left in your view?
Edinburgh West is the second smallest majority, but has no incumbency.
There is a shadow incumbency in the equivalent Holyrood seat, which is why Edinburgh West and East Lothian are more likely to fall to the Lib Dems and Labour respectively than East Dunbartonshire to the Lib Dems IMO. I suggest Edinburgh SW is a better prospect for the Conservatives than Edinburgh S, but gut feel tells me it will remain SNP as Edinburgh S will remain Labour and East Renfrewshire SNP. The only essentially guaranteed non SNP seats are Orkney and Shetland for the Lib Dems and the Borders seats for the Conservatives. The others depend on anti-SNP tactical voting. The questions are how much and to whom.
I am coming more and more to the thought that differential turnout is going to have a big effect on this election, SNP getting 42% and with bad efficiency resulting in a swathe of seats going Red, Orange and Blue.
Admittedly this is talking my book as I am heavily tilted towards large SCon gains but I am not seeing the same differential enthusiasm for the SNP that marked out 2015
and the differences in the TV regions, really are telling.
Now, where did I put those YouGov regional splits again?
Woke up this mornin' thinking I was reasonably intelligent, but I cannot understand those graphs. Can anyone explain?
The pink and pale blue is the traditional swingometer, the dark blue is the seats Hanretty thinks would change hands based on current polling, and the black are seats that May/Corbyn have visited during the campaign.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left. Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
Yes, I think we can safely say that her popularity is now at a high water mark. She probably knows that herself.
and the differences in the TV regions, really are telling.
Now, where did I put those YouGov regional splits again?
Woke up this mornin' thinking I was reasonably intelligent, but I cannot understand those graphs. Can anyone explain?
Each block represents a seat. The further to the left a seat is, the bigger the Labour lead over Tory. The further to the right, the opposite. Dashed line is where their votes are equal. The dark blue seats are ones that are predicted to turn Tory. Looks like all seats that currently have Labour 10% up are predicted to turn Tory, with a smaller fraction of those where Labour have a larger lead. Black blocks represent seats where the leaders have visited.
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left.
Your Europhobia has badly skewed your political compass. Is Ken Clarke centre left in your view?
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people). Dave and George were to the left of the actual centre of British politics for many issues, and certainly for the most important one of recent times. They misread the country because they don't understand it. (Same is true for Clinton but that's a whole other story).
I am to the right of the centre for sure on matters economic and to do with sovereignty. Probably to the left of it for matters social (gay marriage, legalising cannabis and soliciting, death penalty, etc).
You seem to be one of those who think everyone in the actual centre or a bit to the right of it is basically a mixture of Hitler, Genghis Khan, Beelzebub and Ian Brady. I think Norman Tebbit is very sound on economic opinion, mostly, but a repressive twat on matters social, for example. You espouse the destructive delusion expresssed by so many on the left that anything not lefty is way off to the right. 'If you're not Momentum you're a Tory.' I'm not way out there. I am a bit one side of centre for some things and a bit left of it for others. I think where you and I really differ is our understanding of where the actual centre lies statistically.
It is strange that you mention legalising cannabis and state that's a left wing issue. I would argue that its a fairly standard opinion for people who are economically right wing - let the market decide and tax it to death....
I probably would make the Conservatives very slight favourites in Sedgfield, given the huge regional swing underway. OTOH, I'd favour Labour to hold Westminster North, where they're 5/2.
Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.
I'm suspicious of the general tendency to treat the Midlands as homogeneous. I know the East Midlands quite well and broadly they are bellweather territory, with a diverse populatiuon mix and swings very similar to the national average. There's very little regional identity (I've never met anyone who said "I'm from the East Midlands"). Politics tends to be milder, outside the embittered former coalfields, and people are generally open to argument (which is why my brand of retail persuasion one voter at a time flourished for a while in a traditionally Tory seat).
I don't know the West Midlands well but my impression is that they're much more conscious of industrial tradition and more more polarised, with pockets of strong working-class identity? I can well believe that e.g. an issue like immigration plays more strongly there, and memories of the Birmingham pub bombing have kept IRA feelings more intense, so I could imagine a bigger Con swing there than here.
I made money at the last election betting on Labour in Cambriddge, which was seen as a LibDem slam-dunk, and it feels the sort of place where Corbyn has positive appeal. Coupled with the faltering LibDem campaign, I suspect those 4-1 odds make it a decent bet for Labour to hold.
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people).
That's true for a lot of similar "hot" issues, the political centre is miles away from the centre of the population as a whole. Nor is there any great North/South divide on such issues, or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe), or by class/party. The real divide is between people within politics and without.
I probably would make the Conservatives very slight favourites in Sedgfield, given the huge regional swing underway. OTOH, I'd favour Labour to hold Westminster North, where they're 5/2.
Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.
I'm suspicious of the general tendency to treat the Midlands as homogeneous. I know the East Midlands quite well and broadly they are bellweather territory, with a diverse populatiuon mix and swings very similar to the national average. There's very little regional identity (I've never met anyone who said "I'm from the East Midlands"). Politics tends to be milder, outside the embittered former coalfields, and people are generally open to argument (which is why my brand of retail persuasion one voter at a time flourished for a while in a traditionally Tory seat).
I don't know the West Midlands well but my impression is that they're much more conscious of industrial tradition and more more polarised, with pockets of strong working-class identity? I can well believe that e.g. an issue like immigration plays more strongly there, and memories of the Birmingham pub bombing have kept IRA feelings more intense, so I could imagine a bigger Con swing there than here.
I made money at the last election betting on Labour in Cambriddge, which was seen as a LibDem slam-dunk, and it feels the sort of place where Corbyn has positive appeal. Coupled with the faltering LibDem campaign, I suspect those 4-1 odds make it a decent bet for Labour to hold.
@MichaelLCrick: Good news. The great @SirDavidButler joins Twitter: father of British psephology; invented Swingometer; analysed every election since 1945
@MichaelLCrick: Good news. The great @SirDavidButler joins Twitter: father of British psephology; invented Swingometer; analysed every election since 1945
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
Pimlico Plumbers is, apparently, London's largest service company. Its millionaire founder, Charlie Mullins, is a centre left Europhile. The headquarters is right next the elevated rail lines between Vauxhall and Waterloo. There is a HUGE billboard at train window level on top of the building. During the Brexit referendum the billboard was a massive Remain advert. This morning it says, in massive text visible to everyone arriving into Waterloo, the following:
Don't vote for comrade Corbyn - Don't flush Britain down a 70s sewer!
You do read some utter rubbish on here at times. Mullins is a Thatcherite rightwinger who has been a Tory donor for several years.
I didn't say he was a Tory, or a Labour supporter. I said he was centre left. A Europhile. Like Dave and George. A TINO. The Conservative party is now centre right. This has only been true for a year or so. It was previously centre left.
Your Europhobia has badly skewed your political compass. Is Ken Clarke centre left in your view?
He's a communist.
Ken Clarke in red hush puppies .... @TSE would be proud.
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people).
That's true for a lot of similar "hot" issues, the political centre is miles away from the centre of the population as a whole. Nor is there any great North/South divide on such issues, or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe), or by class/party. The real divide is between people within politics and without.
In general, I think that the average voter is to the right of the political class on most social issues, and issues about national identity, and to the left on economic issues.
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people). Dave and George were to the left of the actual centre of British politics for many issues, and certainly for the most important one of recent times. They misread the country because they don't understand it. (Same is true for Clinton but that's a whole other story).
I am to the right of the centre for sure on matters economic and to do with sovereignty. Probably to the left of it for matters social (gay marriage, legalising cannabis and soliciting, death penalty, etc).
You seem to be one of those who think everyone in the actual centre or a bit to the right of it is basically a mixture of Hitler, Genghis Khan, Beelzebub and Ian Brady. I think Norman Tebbit is very sound on economic opinion, mostly, but a repressive twat on matters social, for example. You espouse the destructive delusion expresssed by so many on the left that anything not lefty is way off to the right. 'If you're not Momentum you're a Tory.' I'm not way out there. I am a bit one side of centre for some things and a bit left of it for others. I think where you and I really differ is our understanding of where the actual centre lies statistically.
It is strange that you mention legalising cannabis and state that's a left wing issue. I would argue that its a fairly standard opinion for people who are economically right wing - let the market decide and tax it to death....
I imagine many Tories are very conflicted there - the head telling them to legalise, the heart saying not to. As a SOCIAL issue though, I think the desire to legalise and regulate must be much more positively viewed on the left than it is on the right. I could absolutely never see May proposing it whereas if Osborne had I'd not have been shocked at all. I'm not conflicetd there becaue the free trade economist and social liberal in me point in the same direction. For people like me the conflict comes over immigration. I support it for economic reasons but oppose somewhat for social harmony and identity reasons. I end up supporting control, with a target that is enforced and a points system so we get the right people for our needs. (Note 'our' needs - not theirs).
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.
These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
The ability to move around Europe without having to worry about bureaucracy is one of the benefits of EU membership. You can hardly blame people for taking advantage of it to avoid doing a pile of paperwork.
Errh, we voted to Leave
Yeah and so you expect people to pop into their nearest Tardis and travel back 19 years to foresee that was going to happen?
EEA citizens had no obligation to apply for residency so why would it matter if they were here 19 days or 19 years? It was redundant bureaucracy the government advised people not to bother to do.
Quite right. And the enthusiasm people now appear to have for oppressive paperwork and state snooping really is scary. The kick-the-furriners-out brigade are having a field day.
Funnily enough I was having a chat with a couple of friends yesterday, one from Lithuania the other from Poland. They've been here 12 and 19 years respectively. The former intends to stay, whatever, but the Pole indicated that if she had to start filling out forms and applying for citizenship she wouldn't bother and would return to Poland.
I don't like form-filling myself but I was a bit surprised. Maybe it's just the feeling that somehow you're a different class of citizen despite 19 years of working and paying taxes. I don't know, but it was interesting to hear her views. She isn't a crank, and I guess her personal circumstances were different to the Lithuanian who said her life was centred on the UK now.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
@MichaelLCrick: Good news. The great @SirDavidButler joins Twitter: father of British psephology; invented Swingometer; analysed every election since 1945
Sir David Butler is 92 years of age.
He appeared on the 2015 election show!
I wouldn't be surprised to see him on this year's, either.
Edinburgh West is the second smallest majority, but has no incumbency.
There is a shadow incumbency in the equivalent Holyrood seat, which is why Edinburgh West and East Lothian are more likely to fall to the Lib Dems and Labour respectively than East Dunbartonshire to the Lib Dems IMO. I suggest Edinburgh SW is a better prospect for the Conservatives than Edinburgh S, but gut feel tells me it will remain SNP as Edinburgh S will remain Labour and East Renfrewshire SNP. The only essentially guaranteed non SNP seats are Orkney and Shetland for the Lib Dems and the Borders seats for the Conservatives. The others depend on anti-SNP tactical voting. The questions are how much and to whom.
I am coming more and more to the thought that differential turnout is going to have a big effect on this election, SNP getting 42% and with bad efficiency resulting in a swathe of seats going Red, Orange and Blue.
Admittedly this is talking my book as I am heavily tilted towards large SCon gains but I am not seeing the same differential enthusiasm for the SNP that marked out 2015
That's interesting and I think you're right. The Council elections have slightly deflated the SNP. They have become used to sweeping all before them and these didn't quite meet their sky high expectations. Now they are going into an election where they know they will lose seats, which isn't so much fun, even if they will retain a huge majority. Add in stumble over the Indyref 2 announcement and a creeping sense of mediocrity in the Sturgeon administration, you end up with considerably less enthusiasm. Having said that, the SNP's "problems" are ones other parties would love to have.
I probably would make the Conservatives very slight favourites in Sedgfield, given the huge regional swing underway. OTOH, I'd favour Labour to hold Westminster North, where they're 5/2.
Labour will hold on best in London and the South, youthful seats, Remain voting seats, middle class seats, and do worst in seats in the North and Midlands (outside big cities) , Leave voting seats, working class seats.
I'm suspicious of the general tendency to treat the Midlands as homogeneous. I know the East Midlands quite well and broadly they are bellweather territory, with a diverse populatiuon mix and swings very similar to the national average. There's very little regional identity (I've never met anyone who said "I'm from the East Midlands"). Politics tends to be milder, outside the embittered former coalfields, and people are generally open to argument (which is why my brand of retail persuasion one voter at a time flourished for a while in a traditionally Tory seat).
I don't know the West Midlands well but my impression is that they're much more conscious of industrial tradition and more more polarised, with pockets of strong working-class identity? I can well believe that e.g. an issue like immigration plays more strongly there, and memories of the Birmingham pub bombing have kept IRA feelings more intense, so I could imagine a bigger Con swing there than here.
I made money at the last election betting on Labour in Cambriddge, which was seen as a LibDem slam-dunk, and it feels the sort of place where Corbyn has positive appeal. Coupled with the faltering LibDem campaign, I suspect those 4-1 odds make it a decent bet for Labour to hold.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
Hang on, they've been here 19 years without applying for residency? Talk about wanting it both ways, perhaps Tebbitt was right when he said go to the Oval and see who they support.
These people need to suck it up, they're very welcome but they must play by the rules like the rest of us.
I don't like cricket... but it's very much a minority sport in the rest of the EU. I don't quite get your comment. Have you read @foxinsoxuk comment fully and properly ?
Yes I read it fully. The rule here I Spain is that once you stay more than half the year you must become resident. Same in the UK. 19 years of breaking the rule is taking the pi**.
Isn't this the difference between permanent residency and just being resident?
Says you don't need to apply for residency if you're working and EU citizen?
I may be misunderstanding though.
It affects taxation and other rights, especially if you're not working.
If you can actually point to a gov.uk page that says EU27 citizens need to apply for residency, please do so.
It may be different in the UK but non-residents have different tax rules and residency affects rights to benefits and health care if not working. Clearly this changes with Brexit and the onus should be on the migrant to learn the rule. That was my approach coming to Spain. As for your last sentence - grow up.
So, you accuse someone of breaking the law - which they are not - on the grounds of living here for 19 years and not applying for residence (which, if you actually read foxinsocks' comment is pure supposition on your part)... and you're telling others to grow up ?
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people).
That's true for a lot of similar "hot" issues, the political centre is miles away from the centre of the population as a whole. Nor is there any great North/South divide on such issues, or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe), or by class/party. The real divide is between people within politics and without.
In general, I think that the average voter is to the right of the political class on most social issues, and issues about national identity, and to the left on economic issues.
I see that Davidll has the wit to recognise that SNP v Tories can have only 1 winner. However he seems to think that the SNP can be gradually undermined by supposed domestic failures.
What he does not seem to have factored in is that Ruth Davidson's popularity will have fallen away long before that of the SNP, leaving behind a bunch of talentless no-hopers or N Ireland style bigots at one extreme.
Tories as the main defenders of the Union are a disaster for that Union I am happy to say.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
The problem for UK-only subcontractors is a lack of scale of they are only addressing the UK market. I would expect these to move to the EU over time through mergers and investments.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
When you read social attitude surveys there is a wafer thin difference between the countries in the UK. The point Patrick was making was about the difference between the views of the public and the views of politicians, or the political class/establishment. In political terms the public hold all sorts of "extreme" views, but that's only because politicians define them as such, not because the public regard such views as extreme.
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people).
That's true for a lot of similar "hot" issues, the political centre is miles away from the centre of the population as a whole. Nor is there any great North/South divide on such issues, or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe), or by class/party. The real divide is between people within politics and without.
In general, I think that the average voter is to the right of the political class on most social issues, and issues about national identity, and to the left on economic issues.
I don't know about 'voter', but certainly the average member of the public. The difficulty may be in getting socially conservative + economic social democrat people to the polls.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.
The cannot take private insurance retospectively though!
I have no sympathy for those who've failed to take residency for 19 years. If they've lived here full-time that is illegal.
Perhaps I wasn't clear. They are on PAYE on permanent contracts, just never needed to apply for permanant residency.
Ironically it is the highrst skilled, who have travelled the most that have the most difficulty with the forms. Accounting for a dozen foreign trips a year to conferences is harder than an annual visit to family.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Holyrood.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
Some anecdata from dinner last night (leaving do for a member of staff):
Afro carribean 50 something voting Labour, both daughters doing so too. No real liking of Jezza, but real dislike of May, who was seen as cold, arrogant and rude.
A former Labour activist, now campaigning for the Womens Equality party.
The depressing thing was a long conversation between a group of EU staff, the longest serving having been in the dept 19 years, over the complexities and costs of applying for British residence. Having to demonstrate private health insurance being a major bar.
A low enthusiasm election with no one optomistic.
The private health requirement is normal in most EU countries. It would make sense for the NHS to offer a payment option in these cases with no pre-condition exclusions.
The cannot take private insurance retospectively though!
I have no sympathy for those who've failed to take residency for 19 years. If they've lived here full-time that is illegal.
Perhaps I wasn't clear. They are on PAYE on permanent contracts, just never needed to apply for permanant residency.
Ironically it is the highrst skilled, who have travelled the most that have the most difficulty with the forms. Accounting for a dozen foreign trips a year to conferences is harder than an annual visit to family.
But conferences leads to a far more substantial paper trail. You could even ask the airline for a printout of your lifetime traveling record if you are a member of their frequent flyer program.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Holyrood.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
Well, saying national election limits it to a very small number of elections
I wonder what the result of the EU referendum would have been if those who've never left the UK had not been voting. I'm guessing they voted heavily Brexit and swung the outcome, but I don't know what percentage of people are in that category these days. (It used to be pretty high until fairly recently before budget airlines).
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Holyrood.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
It's a paradox. I agree on the surface the Tories and SNP are very different but every study done seems to confirm little difference in attitudes between the English and Scots. And isn't it funny how this huge mandate given to this very different party is being used to do the square root of b*gger all.
On topic, I'd have liked this article to have provided reasons for its predictions.
Interesting that the author thinks the highland seats are better prospects for the LDs than Dunbartonshire, for example, but what's his reason? Candidates? Independence position? Brexit?
Bobajob did you read Cummings' enormous Brexit post-mortem in the Spectator? A point very well made was about where the political centre really lies and what is really extreme. Statistically. For example the desire to see immigration properly controlled is actually very centrist - despite being portrayed for years as extremist. National pride likewise (for English people).
That's true for a lot of similar "hot" issues, the political centre is miles away from the centre of the population as a whole. Nor is there any great North/South divide on such issues, or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe), or by class/party. The real divide is between people within politics and without.
In general, I think that the average voter is to the right of the political class on most social issues, and issues about national identity, and to the left on economic issues.
Yes - apart from when it comes ot voting for parties that want to raise taxes. We seem to want Scandinavian public services but American personal taxes. If actions count louder than words we aren't really lefties on economics either.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Holyrood.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
It's a paradox. I agree on the surface the Tories and SNP are very different but every study done seems to confirm little difference in attitudes between the English and Scots. And isn't it funny how this huge mandate given to this very different party is being used to do the square root of b*gger all.
They aren't interested in running Scotland.
At all.
That's why, if they succeed in splitting from England, they want to go straight to being a subject of Brussels.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
It's the cost of making sure the specialised software works on the newer versions of Windows. Cheaper just to leave the old machine as it is, although it does open you up to risks like these. I wonder why the machines don't operate exclusively on an internal NHS network.
or a divide by country (despite what the SNP might have you believe)
Yeah, apart from giving a pro immigration, pro refugee, pro EU, pro NHS, pro welfare state, anti Trident party the biggest mandate in Western Europe, and UKIP, the party that has supposedly been driving the political narrative in England for the last 10 years, one, single, measly elected representative.
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Biggest mandate in Western Europe? You mean the number of MPs, or the Holyrood election?
Holyrood.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
It's a paradox. I agree on the surface the Tories and SNP are very different but every study done seems to confirm little difference in attitudes between the English and Scots. And isn't it funny how this huge mandate given to this very different party is being used to do the square root of b*gger all.
It's the narcissism of small differences.
As much TUD loves to claim the Scots are open and embracing pro-Europeanism etc the reality is the Scots have simply voted for a nation that will put Scotland first. And why shouldn't they?
Morning all, enjoyable article. Once again Scotland is fascinating. It feels instinctively that the Tory surge that never comes will see them fall short of their hopes. The three borders seats should go blue but perhaps they will then face a series of agonising seconds with their 2022 target list crammed with Scots constituencies. Certainly odds are not attractive for the NE seats or Edinburgh. The value for me is In their over achieve bracket, seats in the teens they gain on a surging blue tide. If you think they will take Perth, Moray etc I'd be backing Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock and Argyll and Bute as these have much more attractive odds and aren't massively beyond the swing for say, Moray. Labour and the Lib Dems may gain a couple each but will be in deep doo doo outside their remaining areas of hard support.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
It's the cost of making sure the specialised software works on the newer versions of Windows. Cheaper just to leave the old machine as it is, although it does open you up to risks like these. I wonder why the machines don't operate exclusively on an internal NHS network.
Every time I've been to the GP surgery in the last couple of years the glorified nurse (I never get to see an actual doctor these days) has printed off something from the Internet for me.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
Surely the responsible party in this case is Microsoft, who have been flooding the world with leaky operating systems for as long as anyone can remember, constantly playing catch-up with patch after patch after patch. Macintosh users are following this story with incredulity.
Oh, yes, I forgot. Macs are expensive, for some reason.
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
It's the cost of making sure the specialised software works on the newer versions of Windows. Cheaper just to leave the old machine as it is, although it does open you up to risks like these. I wonder why the machines don't operate exclusively on an internal NHS network.
Every time I've been to the GP surgery in the last couple of years the glorified nurse (I never get to see an actual doctor these days) has printed off something from the Internet for me.
They aren't consulting WebMD to diagnose you, are they?
Jeremy Hunt was warned last year of 'urgent' need to update NHS cyber security
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks. A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015. FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS. Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks. Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
What surprised me about the widespread disruption in the NHS caused by out of date IT protection was the extent to which Microsoft Windows XP was still in such general use throughout the organisation. XP was introduced as long ago as October 2001 and was discontinued as a factory fitted option in June 2008, i.e. almost NINE years ago. Yet whenever I visit a hospital and that's been quite a few times, involving a number of different locations over the past five years or so, all the equipment on display, including its computers appears top of the market, no expense spared, new or nearly new. It's amazing to think that since XP, we have had Vista, Windows 7, 8 and now 10. But seemingly the NHS which repeatedly gives the impression of having chucked at it at every turn is labouring away with crucial pieces of kit which is between 9 and 16 years old.
The problem is that any piece of fancy kit (eg a scanner, x-ray, etc) will have been designed to use the operating system that was around at the time it was built and sold. The software on these computers is never/rarely upgraded since doing so could cause incompatibilities with the equipment it's running.
So if you have a 10 year old CAT scanner, it probably will be running XP and maybe not even have a virus checker due to the risk of clashes with the equipment. Ideally these computers should not be connected to the internet or even the hospital network but that necessitates manual file transfers which aren't much fun.
The ruling actually says that almost all of the deal is under EU competence, but not ISDS mechanisms. We can avoid the need for that in Brexit by sticking with the ECJ.
How bad is it that the Labour 'fulled costed' manifesto, errr, isn't?
Already priced in (as it were). Corbyn hasn't even tried to move away from EdM's "no, we didn't spend too much" so I suspect that people expect Labour to still be in the same place. But with extra disdain for the country.
Comments
Mrs May is a centre right conservative. But, apparently, an authoritarian statist too. When she's done the necessary on Brexit she'll lose popularity quite quickly I imagine.
A strong Remainer, he’s disappointed in the referendum’s outcome, disillusioned by the failure of successive governments to embrace apprenticeships and generally disenchanted with politicians themselves....
Mullins says he is “fully supportive” of the Conservatives and believes Theresa May is “doing a great job” but sighs: “She was Remainer who switched camps.”
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/14/drop-out-millionaire-apprenticeship-made-charlie-mullins-richest/
EEA citizens had no obligation to apply for residency so why would it matter if they were here 19 days or 19 years? It was redundant bureaucracy the government advised people not to bother to do.
but
May's visits
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/2DE2/production/_96064711_graph3_976.jpg
vs
Corbyn's visits
https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/54F2/production/_96064712_graph4_976.jpg
and the differences in the TV regions, really are telling.
Now, where did I put those YouGov regional splits again?
I am to the right of the centre for sure on matters economic and to do with sovereignty.
Probably to the left of it for matters social (gay marriage, legalising cannabis and soliciting, death penalty, etc).
You seem to be one of those who think everyone in the actual centre or a bit to the right of it is basically a mixture of Hitler, Genghis Khan, Beelzebub and Ian Brady. I think Norman Tebbit is very sound on economic opinion, mostly, but a repressive twat on matters social, for example. You espouse the destructive delusion expresssed by so many on the left that anything not lefty is way off to the right. 'If you're not Momentum you're a Tory.' I'm not way out there. I am a bit one side of centre for some things and a bit left of it for others. I think where you and I really differ is our understanding of where the actual centre lies statistically.
Dark blue is prediction on the result
Black means that they've been visited by the respective leader.
Description is in the main link given and quoted in the message. You could click on that, but it is, alas, only optional.
Admittedly this is talking my book as I am heavily tilted towards large SCon gains but I am not seeing the same differential enthusiasm for the SNP that marked out 2015
I don't know the West Midlands well but my impression is that they're much more conscious of industrial tradition and more more polarised, with pockets of strong working-class identity? I can well believe that e.g. an issue like immigration plays more strongly there, and memories of the Birmingham pub bombing have kept IRA feelings more intense, so I could imagine a bigger Con swing there than here.
I made money at the last election betting on Labour in Cambriddge, which was seen as a LibDem slam-dunk, and it feels the sort of place where Corbyn has positive appeal. Coupled with the faltering LibDem campaign, I suspect those 4-1 odds make it a decent bet for Labour to hold.
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2015/may/26/uk-government-pcs-open-to-hackers-as-paid-windows-xp-support-ends
I'm not conflicetd there becaue the free trade economist and social liberal in me point in the same direction.
For people like me the conflict comes over immigration. I support it for economic reasons but oppose somewhat for social harmony and identity reasons. I end up supporting control, with a target that is enforced and a points system so we get the right people for our needs. (Note 'our' needs - not theirs).
The Care Quality Commission wrote to the Health Secretary about the urgent need to update NHS software to prevent cyberattacks.
A contract with Microsoft to update Windows XP security patches had been allowed to expire in 2015.
FOI requests revealed defunct systems were still in use across the NHS.
Hospitals were crippled on Friday following widespread "ransomware" attacks.
Liberal Democrats are calling for an inquiry into the failure.
http://uk.businessinsider.com/jeremy-hunt-was-warned-of-urgent-need-to-update-nhs-cyber-security-2017-5
I don't like form-filling myself but I was a bit surprised. Maybe it's just the feeling that somehow you're a different class of citizen despite 19 years of working and paying taxes. I don't know, but it was interesting to hear her views. She isn't a crank, and I guess her personal circumstances were different to the Lithuanian who said her life was centred on the UK now.
https://twitter.com/torstenbell/status/864029075198930944
Apart from that we're pretty much identical countries.
Free patch, freely available.
What insightful political commentary.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/john-mcdonnell-denies-needing-prompted-10431380
He asked: “Is someone passing you a piece of paper? What is our deficit at the moment.”
McDonnell denied it, saying: “Not at all.”
Robinson said: “It just sounds like there was a bit of paper being handed across.”
“Not at all,” McDonnell insisted. “The deficit at the moment is £68 to £70 billion pounds.”
Robinson informed him that it was around “£52 billion I think.”
What he does not seem to have factored in is that Ruth Davidson's popularity will have fallen away long before that of the SNP, leaving behind a bunch of talentless no-hopers or N Ireland style bigots at one extreme.
Tories as the main defenders of the Union are a disaster for that Union I am happy to say.
Ironically it is the highrst skilled, who have travelled the most that have the most difficulty with the forms. Accounting for a dozen foreign trips a year to conferences is harder than an annual visit to family.
'in the run-up to the European Union referendum, we are delighted on these benches that the Scottish electorate has returned a pro-European SNP government with the highest vote of any current party in any national election anywhere in western Europe.'
If you've any updates to refute Angus's claim, feel free to provide them.
Of course in three weeks the nasty party may likely surpass that in England. That'll really cement the similarities between the countries.
https://twitter.com/ExileInScotland/status/864214971659550724
Interesting that the author thinks the highland seats are better prospects for the LDs than Dunbartonshire, for example, but what's his reason? Candidates? Independence position? Brexit?
At all.
That's why, if they succeed in splitting from England, they want to go straight to being a subject of Brussels.
As much TUD loves to claim the Scots are open and embracing pro-Europeanism etc the reality is the Scots have simply voted for a nation that will put Scotland first. And why shouldn't they?
The English are now doing the same thing.
Labour and the Lib Dems may gain a couple each but will be in deep doo doo outside their remaining areas of hard support.
Does it matter? I would have said 'yes' last year, but in a world where Trump can be elected by not being taken literally. Who knows.
Oh, yes, I forgot. Macs are expensive, for some reason.
http://labourhame.com/the-sturgeon-surge-may-be-over-but-this-is-a-strategy-nearing-completion/
So if you have a 10 year old CAT scanner, it probably will be running XP and maybe not even have a virus checker due to the risk of clashes with the equipment. Ideally these computers should not be connected to the internet or even the hospital network but that necessitates manual file transfers which aren't much fun.