politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Cor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Corbyn quits then or not
The first phase of Labour’s 2017 leadership contest ended on Thursday afternoon when nominations closed for the June 9th General Election. Those like John Rentoul who have analysed the list of candidates for seats that LAB could possibly hold onto say that there will not be enough Corbyn supporting MPs elected in the general election for them to make a nomination according to Labour’s rules.
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They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.0
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Cybersecurity company Lastline are getting in the news a lot. But since they're privately-owned we can't check their share price. No significant movements were apparent today in the prices of the publicly-traded companies I've looked at.0
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Has anybody (cleverer than me) yet added up how many constituencies there are with N candidates, for each N? I don't know how to do spreadsheets properly.0
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Speaking as an implementor of blockchain-based systems, my suggestion would be to stop wasting time on that and instead concentrate on doing proper sodding backups and updates. If you can't cope with those, you're not going to have a good time managing cryptographic keys.Monkeys said:They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.
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Heh, here's the spreadsheet (couldn't remember it but found it after some digging)JohnLoony said:
https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv
Here's my tally of how many seats have N candidates:
3 - 22
4 - 173
5 - 266
6 - 134
7 - 42
8 - 9
10 - 2
13 - 1 (Maidenhead!)0 -
I reckon that adds up to 3,291 candidates but elsewhere I've seen it quoted as 3,300. Is there one constituency with 9 candidates? I thought I'd seen one or two...RobD said:
Heh, here's the spreadsheet (couldn't remember it but found it after some digging)JohnLoony said:
https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv
Here's my tally of how many seats have N candidates:
3 - 22
4 - 173
5 - 266
6 - 134
7 - 42
8 - 9
10 - 2
13 - 1 (Maidenhead!)
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Quite right, I missed that one with nine candidates... Manchester, Gorton if you were interested (maybe because of the cancelled by election)JohnLoony said:
I reckon that adds up to 3,291 candidates but elsewhere I've seen it quoted as 3,300. Is there one constituency with 9 candidates? I thought I'd seen one or two...RobD said:
Heh, here's the spreadsheet (couldn't remember it but found it after some digging)JohnLoony said:
https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv
Here's my tally of how many seats have N candidates:
3 - 22
4 - 173
5 - 266
6 - 134
7 - 42
8 - 9
10 - 2
13 - 1 (Maidenhead!)0 -
Oh yes! I knew I'd noticed one because M.Gorton has 9 of the 11 by-election candidates still standing, with no new ones added.RobD said:
Quite right, I missed that one with nine candidates... Manchester, Gorton if you were interested (maybe because of the cancelled by election)JohnLoony said:
I reckon that adds up to 3,291 candidates but elsewhere I've seen it quoted as 3,300. Is there one constituency with 9 candidates? I thought I'd seen one or two...RobD said:
Heh, here's the spreadsheet (couldn't remember it but found it after some digging)JohnLoony said:
https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv
Here's my tally of how many seats have N candidates:
3 - 22
4 - 173
5 - 266
6 - 134
7 - 42
8 - 9
10 - 2
13 - 1 (Maidenhead!)0 -
Looking at the longshots for some value... could we see the Return of Kinnock (Rage against the Militants) 2?
Personally I think the moderate candidates are too short and the Left too long. Corbyn will only step down when he has changed the election rules - or the past two years misery for him has been for nought.
Even if the balance of the PLP changes after the election, the membership will still be strongly Left and frustrated at the election being stolen by the moderates' disloyalty and the right-wing press. They will support again a left candidate - who will win.
The risk in these bets is if the party splits, then who is the leader of the real Labour party. That could take a long time to resolve through the courts, unless the splitters set up a new party with no pretence to continue the Labour brand. In which case the next "Labour" leader will certainly be another candidate from the left. If you buy that scenario - then back half a dozen of the left candidates at those prices and you're still likely to be green,0 -
Morning. If Corbyn doesn't resign and there's a challlenge, then we won't get a coronation, we'll get an election as we did last year with Corbyn automatically on the ballot. The incumbent has already made it clear he's going nowhere, certainly not before the McDonnell Amendment at Conference.-1
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On topic, my analysis using Iain Dale's seat forecasts as a guide is that there will probably be about 25 left-wingers on a projected PLP of about 165 - so very close to the 15% threshold. Whether, after a big defeat, they are all willing to nominate another left-winger is I guess the question. Nevertheless it looks clear that the left will have an easier time in a smaller parliamentary party.0
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LOL, so true. Although to be honest if people don't understand that backups need to be tested then they shouldn't be working in IT in the first place. Hopefully incidents of this profile will give senior managers a kick that these things need to be taken seriously and make sure sufficient resources go into them.edmundintokyo said:
Speaking as an implementor of blockchain-based systems, my suggestion would be to stop wasting time on that and instead concentrate on doing proper sodding backups and updates. If you can't cope with those, you're not going to have a good time managing cryptographic keys.Monkeys said:They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.
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Great map showing the sheer scale of the attack:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/12/world/europe/wannacry-ransomware-map.html0 -
Labour electing a woman after electing Corbyn twice seems very very very unlikely.
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Some comment on the last thread about Corbyn's comments on dealing with ISIL. What about his comments on responding to a NATO ally under military attack? I'm sure an occupied Baltic state would be very pleased to hear that Corbyn is on the way to negotiate their freedom.0
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It would depend on whether the NEC agree he can go on the ballot, like last time, I would have thought.Sandpit said:
LOL, so true. Although to be honest if people don't understand that backups need to be tested then they shouldn't be working in IT in the first place. Hopefully incidents of this profile will give senior managers a kick that these things need to be taken seriously and make sure sufficient resources go into them.edmundintokyo said:
Speaking as an implementor of blockchain-based systems, my suggestion would be to stop wasting time on that and instead concentrate on doing proper sodding backups and updates. If you can't cope with those, you're not going to have a good time managing cryptographic keys.Monkeys said:They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.
Wouldn't go near this type of betting (on next lab leader) at such short odds.
Edit sorry responded to wrong comment chain0 -
As I recall Cooper is the one who emote about child refugees and asked one pithy question at PMQs. Her ministerial record was very poor. If she is the answer the party is in a bad way. Those thousands of left wing members will all still be there.0
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Jon Ashworth still available at 80, I see...felix said:As I recall Cooper is the one who emote about child refugees and asked one pithy question at PMQs. Her ministerial record was very poor. If she is the answer the party is in a bad way. Those thousands of left wing members will all still be there.
But if looking for a woman who can do a Kinnock on Militant, look no furtber than Jess Phillips.0 -
I'd don't think that she'd be a bad opposition leader although her record as a minister is mixed and perhaps looks adequate only in the rear view mirror.
However, I'd point to the phrase, "growing consensus" in the article. Perhaps this time it's different but I've always taken that to mean no consensus other than in the mind of the person which hopes to be the beneficiary of such consensus.0 -
I think it would be unlikely. Corbyn will go down in infamy somewhere between Harold Shipman and Fred West. The idea that the fuherer's schutzstaffel will be allowed to take over is ridiculous. They should find themselves some piano wire and do he decent thingIanB2 said:On topic, my analysis using Iain Dale's seat forecasts as a guide is that there will probably be about 25 left-wingers on a projected PLP of about 165 - so very close to the 15% threshold. Whether, after a big defeat, they are all willing to nominate another left-winger is I guess the question. Nevertheless it looks clear that the left will have an easier time in a smaller parliamentary party.
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Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.0 -
Wonder who will replace Terry in June.0
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If they change the application of the rules to exclude him it will go to court and he'll winnielh said:
It would depend on whether the NEC agree he can go on the ballot, like last time, I would have thought.Sandpit said:
LOL, so true. Although to be honest if people don't understand that backups need to be tested then they shouldn't be working in IT in the first place. Hopefully incidents of this profile will give senior managers a kick that these things need to be taken seriously and make sure sufficient resources go into them.edmundintokyo said:
Speaking as an implementor of blockchain-based systems, my suggestion would be to stop wasting time on that and instead concentrate on doing proper sodding backups and updates. If you can't cope with those, you're not going to have a good time managing cryptographic keys.Monkeys said:They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.
Wouldn't go near this type of betting (on next lab leader) at such short odds.
Edit sorry responded to wrong comment chain0 -
Agreed. She was a pygmy amongst pygmies in the last leadership election. I really can't see how she is supposed to have put on a growth spurt. Maybe her other competitors have just been made to stand in a trench?Charles said:Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.0 -
Liam Fox v. Boris Johnson v. David Davis?
Now that Osborne is out of the picture the field is wide open.0 -
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1) Although I thought Corbyn was finally coming round to something akin to sanity a week ago, he's now made it clear he won't go quietly. That rules out a coronation.
2) Up against Cooper, he would win again. The mere facts that she's female, intelligent, experienced, and popular with the PLP do not compensate for the fact that she's uninspiring, incompetent and right wing.
3) There seems a genuine risk she will lose Normanton. At the last two elections there has been an above average swing in NP&C - both for and against. If she loses 5 points to the Liberal Democrats, 5 points to abstentions and the UKIP vote breaks Tory as the opinion polls suggest, her majority would be in the hundreds not the thousands. A tiny direct swing would topple her.
4) I agree with the good Dr @foxinsoxuk that Ashworth is the one to watch even at that price. He's loyal, acceptable to the left, doesn't raise antipathy on the right and the only major spokesman not to have made a total dog's dinner of his brief so far.0 -
I think David Davis vs. an Osborne protégé in the run off
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Proper sodding backups are a good idea. Storing them for a lot longer than at present to guard against attacks lying dormant will add slightly to the cost of storing backup media offsite but the £350 million a week extra for the NHS should cover it. Even then, it may be easier and cheaper to pay the ransom.edmundintokyo said:
Speaking as an implementor of blockchain-based systems, my suggestion would be to stop wasting time on that and instead concentrate on doing proper sodding backups and updates. If you can't cope with those, you're not going to have a good time managing cryptographic keys.Monkeys said:They should stick medical records on a blockchain. Then they can't be got at. It's the wave of the future.
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The US arms of state aren't exactly covering themselves in glory at the moment. Now their President has shown himself to be dangerously bonkers Corbyn's view on our future relationship will be much more in tandem with the public than Johnson'sRobD said:Great map showing the sheer scale of the attack:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/12/world/europe/wannacry-ransomware-map.html0 -
Indeed so .... Jezza has been the gift that keeps us full of mirth and merriment ....MarqueeMark said:0 -
I don't know why Mr Smithson is pushing Cooper. I think she is useless. She might have had some "strong" performances but IIRC they were open goals and were soon forgotten. Can she think on her feet? or is it a question of ABC. Anyone but Corbyn.. Could Ed Balls end up the first "husband ? (shudders)0
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Certainly not by acclamation because if Corbyn doesn't quit, he's automatically on the ballot again just like last year.Charles said:Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.0 -
Indeed. He could hardly be doing more for the Conservatives if he were a fully paid up member of the Monday Club.RobD said:@ydoethur - nothing would please this PB Tory more than Corbyn winning a leadership election after a crushing GE defeat.
Indeed, given the toxicity of some of that group's membership, arguably he is doing far more for the Conservatives than the Monday Club!0 -
Yvette Cooper would be great news for the tories, she is insipid and bland. Its irrelevant who the leader is, the whole brand is tarnished.0
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Because the field is very thin at present. Cooper is just about the only member of the last Labour government still active in national politics - the others have retired, died, been sent to Manchester or been despatched by the electorate.SquareRoot said:I don't know why Mr Smithson is pushing Cooper. I think she is useless. She might have had some "strong" performances but IIRC they were open goals and were soon forgotten. Can she think on her feet? or is it a question of ABC. Anyone but Corbyn.. Could Ed Balls end up the first "husband ? (shudders)
When Rebecca Long-Bailey is touted as a serious contender - a woman who is barely fit to be a parish councillor* - there is a disastrous shortage of talent.
*I mean no disrespect to the hundreds of thousands of hard working, conscientious and able parish councillors out there helping their local areas. Long-Bailey scarce deserves to be in such company.0 -
Farron can't be long in charge. He's having a worse campaign than anyone. Will Cable replace him?0
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Morning all.
Can’t believe Tinkerbelle is still being touted as next leader, desperate times indeed.0 -
Is it possible that the mere fact the election has happened may increase the options to the Parliamentary party? I.e. because the threat of a snap election has gone, and indeed in the event of a landslide the threat of an election to exploit a weak opposition, they may reconsider pursuing the "Parliamentary route". Recognising Corbyn as the Labour leader in the country but not in Parliament and electing a leader of the Opposition from amongst their own?0
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PBer reports from the doorstep:
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/863277691667132416
Telling choice of avatar.0 -
I had leaders in mind, obviously not Abbot. Farron tends to get away with it because everyone is focused on Corbyn.ydoethur said:
Not worse than Abbott, or Burgon, or Rayner. I know you don't like him, but try to be fair!Jonathan said:Farron can't be long in charge. He's having a worse campaign than anyone. Will Cable replace him?
(If any irony meters just exploded, buy your own replacements!)
Corbyn is doing better than Farron. Farron is very weak.0 -
I think there was a clause in my PB Platinum Membership pack to say that irony and bullshit meters aren't covered under the group insurance policy.ydoethur said:
Not worse than Abbott, or Burgon, or Rayner. I know you don't like him, but try to be fair!Jonathan said:Farron can't be long in charge. He's having a worse campaign than anyone. Will Cable replace him?
(If any irony meters just exploded, buy your own replacements!)0 -
Not if she loses her seat.foxinsoxuk said:
Jon Ashworth still available at 80, I see...felix said:As I recall Cooper is the one who emote about child refugees and asked one pithy question at PMQs. Her ministerial record was very poor. If she is the answer the party is in a bad way. Those thousands of left wing members will all still be there.
But if looking for a woman who can do a Kinnock on Militant, look no furtber than Jess Phillips.0 -
I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.0
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And the PLP doesn't make the decision anywayThreeQuidder said:
Certainly not by acclamation because if Corbyn doesn't quit, he's automatically on the ballot again just like last year.Charles said:Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.
In all ways it was a spectacularly asinine comment by Stephen Bush0 -
Cable would be worse - the party is an irrelevant mess, way too left-wing and absurd on Europe. The country needs a new Progressive alternative much nearer the centre.ydoethur said:
Not worse than Abbott, or Burgon, or Rayner. I know you don't like him, but try to be fair!Jonathan said:Farron can't be long in charge. He's having a worse campaign than anyone. Will Cable replace him?
(If any irony meters just exploded, buy your own replacements!)0 -
Against their constitution IIRCalex. said:Is it possible that the mere fact the election has happened may increase the options to the Parliamentary party? I.e. because the threat of a snap election has gone, and indeed in the event of a landslide the threat of an election to exploit a weak opposition, they may reconsider pursuing the "Parliamentary route". Recognising Corbyn as the Labour leader in the country but not in Parliament and electing a leader of the Opposition from amongst their own?
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I'd like to see him challenge too. There are obviously some skeletons in his closet so it'll be fun to see if they destroy him or if society has moved on enough.Roger said:I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.
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Well, so far Corbyn has exceeded expectations. The expectation was that either he would assault somebody or would start shouting abuse, like he normally does, or would say that he would scrap Trident and not order the police to stop terrorist attacks. The bar was low. So far he has only put one journalist in hospital and it seems that was a genuine accident.Jonathan said:
I had leaders in mind, obviously not Abbot. Farron tends to get away with it because everyone is focused on Corbyn.ydoethur said:
Not worse than Abbott, or Burgon, or Rayner. I know you don't like him, but try to be fair!Jonathan said:Farron can't be long in charge. He's having a worse campaign than anyone. Will Cable replace him?
(If any irony meters just exploded, buy your own replacements!)
Corbyn is doing better than Farron. Farron is very weak.
Farron was expected to massively increase Orange exposure, energise their vote and more than double the number of seats riding an anti-Brexit horse. The bar was high. So far he has only done one of those things. But the other two were always impossible asks at this stage.
To be blunt, I think once you strip out the expectations their actual performance hasn't been wildly different. Farron hasn't leaked his own manifesto or run over the BBC team covering his campaign.0 -
Whilst a continuation of "Corbyn is Crap" threads on PB would be entertaining I'm sure OGH is mindful that PB doesn't emulate other organs obsessions such as the Daily Express - Princess Di .. Miracle Cures .. Cataclysmic Weather .. Benefit Scroungers .. Immigrant Swan Eaters ....RobD said:@ydoethur - nothing would please this PB Tory more than Corbyn winning a leadership election after a crushing GE defeat.
The nation is better served by having functioning opposition parties in parliament that are able to hold the government fully to account.
A Labour party with a leader worthy of the name as a government in waiting, LibDems who need more than a phone box for parliamentary party meetings, some headbangers from UKIP and strong representation from the Celtic nations are in the national interest.
Tame ranks of Tory MP's in a landslide less so.
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How was Question time on R4 last night? How did Dianne Abbot get on?0
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Society has no doubt moved on. But I think the issue is whether his family has.GeoffM said:
I'd like to see him challenge too. There are obviously some skeletons in his closet so it'll be fun to see if they destroy him or if society has moved on enough.Roger said:I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.
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Politics isn't about society moving on its about destroying the opposition which I guess is why he pulled out last time.GeoffM said:
I'd like to see him challenge too. There are obviously some skeletons in his closet so it'll be fun to see if they destroy him or if society has moved on enough.Roger said:I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.
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Yes, the Labour centrists shot themselves in the foot by declining to serve in the Shadow Cabinet. This means none of them have scored any hits against the government's often open goals, or advanced their own cases to be leader in any way. For politicians, they are pretty bad at politics.ydoethur said:
Because the field is very thin at present. Cooper is just about the only member of the last Labour government still active in national politics - the others have retired, died, been sent to Manchester or been despatched by the electorate.SquareRoot said:I don't know why Mr Smithson is pushing Cooper. I think she is useless. She might have had some "strong" performances but IIRC they were open goals and were soon forgotten. Can she think on her feet? or is it a question of ABC. Anyone but Corbyn.. Could Ed Balls end up the first "husband ? (shudders)
When Rebecca Long-Bailey is touted as a serious contender - a woman who is barely fit to be a parish councillor* - there is a disastrous shortage of talent.
*I mean no disrespect to the hundreds of thousands of hard working, conscientious and able parish councillors out there helping their local areas. Long-Bailey scarce deserves to be in such company.0 -
Benn would be the best replacement. However Labour are going to lose this election in part because of the one issue that they completely fail to address - economic competence, and Benn doesn't help much there in my view. So whoever they choose trying to find someone to work alongside the new leader that can introduce policies that are not just trying to identify deserving causes to raid the magic money tree for is of primary importance. (I'm not sure they have such people, but they should try to find them)0
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That is true of the whole Labour Party though.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yes, the Labour centrists shot themselves in the foot by declining to serve in the Shadow Cabinet. This means none of them have scored any hits against the government's often open goals, or advanced their own cases to be leader in any way. For politicians, they are pretty bad at politics.ydoethur said:
Because the field is very thin at present. Cooper is just about the only member of the last Labour government still active in national politics - the others have retired, died, been sent to Manchester or been despatched by the electorate.SquareRoot said:I don't know why Mr Smithson is pushing Cooper. I think she is useless. She might have had some "strong" performances but IIRC they were open goals and were soon forgotten. Can she think on her feet? or is it a question of ABC. Anyone but Corbyn.. Could Ed Balls end up the first "husband ? (shudders)
When Rebecca Long-Bailey is touted as a serious contender - a woman who is barely fit to be a parish councillor* - there is a disastrous shortage of talent.
*I mean no disrespect to the hundreds of thousands of hard working, conscientious and able parish councillors out there helping their local areas. Long-Bailey scarce deserves to be in such company.
Therein lies the kernel of the problem.0 -
Well, in the event of a vacancy it does (albeit in conjunction with the EPLP) - if it nominates only one candidate, he wins without a vote (as happened with Brown in 2007).Charles said:
And the PLP doesn't make the decision anywayThreeQuidder said:
Certainly not by acclamation because if Corbyn doesn't quit, he's automatically on the ballot again just like last year.Charles said:Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.
In all ways it was a spectacularly asinine comment by Stephen Bush
Is the EPLP big enough to put up a candidate of its own?0 -
As ever, the learn'd JackW speaks the truth.JackW said:
Whilst a continuation of "Corbyn is Crap" threads on PB would be entertaining I'm sure OGH is mindful that PB doesn't emulate other organs obsessions such as the Daily Express - Princess Di .. Miracle Cures .. Cataclysmic Weather .. Benefit Scroungers .. Immigrant Swan Eaters ....RobD said:@ydoethur - nothing would please this PB Tory more than Corbyn winning a leadership election after a crushing GE defeat.
The nation is better served by having functioning opposition parties in parliament that are able to hold the government fully to account.
A Labour party with a leader worthy of the name as a government in waiting, LibDems who need more than a phone box for parliamentary party meetings, some headbangers from UKIP and strong representation from the Celtic nations are in the national interest.
Tame ranks of Tory MP's in a landslide less so.0 -
I haven't hear Lord Mandleson say anything about this election so far.. Has anyone else?0
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I assumed it was based on Corbyn standing down first, then the PLP only nominating one candidate for the leadership, like they did with Brown. It's the first part of that which now seems unlikely, but otherwise it could happen.Charles said:
And the PLP doesn't make the decision anywayThreeQuidder said:
Certainly not by acclamation because if Corbyn doesn't quit, he's automatically on the ballot again just like last year.Charles said:Of course the PLP can't give the leadership to anyone, by acclamation or not.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.
In all ways it was a spectacularly asinine comment by Stephen Bush
Incidentally Stephen is good value on the New statesmen podcast each week.0 -
Well, Labour can't do much worse than Jezza (unless they manage to elect Abbott, perhaps!) But whatever happens post-election they will still have a number of problems to deal with, whoever leads them.
On policy, if Yvette Cooper won would we see the ideas of the 2017 manifesto dumped and a shift back to Milibandism or even Blairism? Would the membership accept that? Will a Corbyn defeat see the scales fall from their eyes and an embracing of a more centrist approach? I have my doubts. Which means the next Labour leader might either be someone of the left or someone who is willing to wage war with the left a la Kinnock. Parties at war with themselves rarely provide good opposition. The next parliament looks to be very challenging for Labour if it keeps itself together. It might be a 1983-1987 regrouping parliament, a period of adjustment and ideological battles in preparation for 2027.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
'Has to be a woman'?
Call me crazy, but we should judge politicians by the content of their heads, not their trousers.0 -
At the moment the left are having the time of their lives: 'Listen you Capitalist fat cats, war-mongers, filthy rich, Jeremy's coming to get ya!' On June 9, the cold reality of sub-170 seats, the prospect of Tory Government with a majority so big that they will be able to do whatever they want for the next five years will concentrate Labour minds on electoral realities. The question asked of a prospective leader will not be 'are you left wing enough?', but 'what is your plan for making the party relevant again?'0
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I am not sure that the leader of the Labour Party is actually the main problem.
Surely the large number of milk and water Labour MPs more interested in their ministerial positions under Blair and Brown or second homes and expenses than actually representing their members and constituents has caused the membership to rebel and select Corbyn.
Not sure a new leader will make any difference especially if the members wishes are ignored by the MPs in the nomination process.0 -
The skeletons are what you get if you spent most of the late 1990s partying with Guido and his raver friends. He also got married last year, which may help with the 'Mandleson-esque' rumours.GeoffM said:
I'd like to see him challenge too. There are obviously some skeletons in his closet so it'll be fun to see if they destroy him or if society has moved on enough.Roger said:I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.
Of more concern is that there's no political substance inside the smart suit - he's spent less time with working class voters than Lady Nugee.0 -
Just to add, I remember how traumatic the 1992 defeat was the for the party - and this coming one will be far worse. It was the memory of the defeat two years earlier that meant that Blair was able to win the 1994 leadership election so easily.-1
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"Theresa is a fighter, not a quitter!!!!"SquareRoot said:I haven't hear Lord Mandleson say anything about this election so far.. Has anyone else?
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Morning SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
"Theresa is a fighter, not a quitter!!!!"SquareRoot said:I haven't hear Lord Mandleson say anything about this election so far.. Has anyone else?
Have you done the Minehead to Bishops Lydeard steam railway? We had a day on it a few weeks back at their gala weekend. great fun and the technology behind the Victorian turntable is amazing. Two men can turn the train round.0 -
I suspect you'll hear from him soon after 10.00pm on June 8.SquareRoot said:I haven't hear Lord Mandleson say anything about this election so far.. Has anyone else?
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I did wonder how many Labour MPs will be mentioning Corbyn - the answer is not even DianeThreeQuidder said:PBer reports from the doorstep:
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/863277691667132416
Telling choice of avatar.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4501456/amp/Even-Corbyn-s-ex-lover-Diane-Abbott-airbrushing-out.html0 -
Why? Surely the big problem in 1992 was that as in 1970 (and indeed 2015) Labour didn't see it coming. They were convinced they were going to win or at least force a hung parliament (one of the more amusing moments of the 1992 election coverage is Gordon Brown saying that because the Tories had lost their overall majority they should resign immediately and let Labour take power even if Labour were second overall). They just had no idea of how unpopular they still were.ThomasNashe said:Just to add, I remember how traumatic the 1992 defeat was the for the party - and this coming one will be far worse. It was the memory of the defeat two years earlier that meant that Blair was able to win the 1994 leadership election so easily.
This time even the most stupid Corbynista must know they are in for the worst beating since Margaret d'Anjou turned her exhausted and outnumbered forces to face the rampaging Edward IV at Tewkesbury in 1471. They cannot believe that the apologist for terrorism is popular unless they are suffering from serious sight and hearing impediments.
Of course, the revelation that everyone can see how loathsome they are will be a trauma for people who genuinely believe they are decent, always right and normal. Whether it will jerk them to reality is a different question. But a trauma like 1992? Can't see it.0 -
Ashworth has several points in his favour:ydoethur said:
4) I agree with the good Dr @foxinsoxuk that Ashworth is the one to watch even at that price. He's loyal, acceptable to the left, doesn't raise antipathy on the right and the only major spokesman not to have made a total dog's dinner of his brief so far.
1) He is competent, and a consensus builder. A Brownite historically, but one of the few willing to work in the Shadow Cabinet. He knows the NEC, the rulebook, and unions well, so would have internal support for some of the internal party tasks. He wasn't in the last Labour government so is a clean skin.
2) He has a safe seat, and while a white male again, is at least a working class northern one. His backstory is interesting, and his campaigning for families of alcoholics shows him to be more than the party apparatchik parachuted into a safe seat that I had him down as.
But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.0 -
I think Yvette would give Mrs May a much harder time at PMQs. She would also be able to draw on those who currently sit on the backbenches. After Corbyn and a Shadow Cabinet that changed more often than a Man U team sheet some stability with shadows actually coming to grips with their departments would be welcome.
My reservation is the last time she stood for the leadership. It was such a lacklustre effort, I don't believe that her heart was in it. I don't think she particularly welcomes the scrutiny or the challenges of leading. She likes campaigning against things but was an uninspired Minister when asked to make the hard decisions.
I can't really see her lead Labour to a victory. But she will improve their image, repair some of the damage, make them look a bit more competent and consolidate, a Michael Howard type role perhaps. Where is the next Cameron/Osborne, Blair/Brown combo? That is the real question.0 -
Kippers in kilts update.
Some nascent signs that the media worm is turning with regard to Ruthy.
https://twitter.com/markmcdsnp/status/863183636262264836
Of course it's no revelation that the SCons are happy to soak up the racist bigot vote, but they've become too complacent about doing it openly. Douce Unionist folk don't want to open their breakfast newspaper to news of councillors' manhoods or loonballs calling for politicians to be taken out.0 -
I'm afraid I don't, which is why I have ruled her out as the next leader.foxinsoxuk said:But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
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Re. your penultimate paragraph, self-awareness does not strike me as one of the most prominent qualities of the average Corbynista. 9 June will be the day everyone in the Party needs to wake up to reality.ydoethur said:
Why? Surely the big problem in 1992 was that as in 1970 (and indeed 2015) Labour didn't see it coming. They were convinced they were going to win or at least force a hung parliament (one of the more amusing moments of the 1992 election coverage is Gordon Brown saying that because the Tories had lost their overall majority they should resign immediately and let Labour take power even if Labour were second overall). They just had no idea of how unpopular they still were.ThomasNashe said:Just to add, I remember how traumatic the 1992 defeat was the for the party - and this coming one will be far worse. It was the memory of the defeat two years earlier that meant that Blair was able to win the 1994 leadership election so easily.
This time even the most stupid Corbynista must know they are in for the worst beating since Margaret d'Anjou turned her exhausted and outnumbered forces to face the rampaging Edward IV at Tewkesbury in 1471. They cannot believe that the apologist for terrorism is popular unless they are suffering from serious sight and hearing impediments.
Of course, the revelation that everyone can see how loathsome they are will be a trauma for people who genuinely believe they are decent, always right and normal. Whether it will jerk them to reality is a different question. But a trauma like 1992? Can't see it.0 -
Dr. Foxinsox, I hope Phillips doesn't get it. Someone who laughs with incredulity at discussing male suicide rates in the Commons is contemptible, and her comments about Cologne/Birmingham don't exactly inspire confidence either.0
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Really? The Lib Dems are going nowhere and the Tories are surely far too far back even with a significant UKIP bounce. She looks pretty safe to me.ydoethur said:
I'm afraid I don't, which is why I have ruled her out as the next leader.foxinsoxuk said:But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
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I think she is safe. The main challenger is Hemming for the LD's, over whom she has a significant lead. The total number of UKIP and Con votes is less than Lab. UKIP are standing and the Tory candidate is a Muslim, so may miss out on the scale of the kipper to Tory swing elsewhere.ydoethur said:
I'm afraid I don't, which is why I have ruled her out as the next leader.foxinsoxuk said:But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
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I've just looked him up on Wiki and he sounds pretty wholesome with an interesting back story. Are there rumours because he walked away last time? If he's gay that'll be a nice contrast with Theresa.GeoffM said:
I'd like to see him challenge too. There are obviously some skeletons in his closet so it'll be fun to see if they destroy him or if society has moved on enough.Roger said:I'd like to see Chuka Ummuna challenge. He's got a very cool manner which would be a better contrast with May than Cooper.
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@RobWilson_RDG: Quote of the day: "While Labour’s manifesto is 100% Jeremy Corbyn, the costings in it are 100% Diane Abbott."0
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Read her book, in which she discusses this, you might find her views surprising.Morris_Dancer said:Dr. Foxinsox, I hope Phillips doesn't get it. Someone who laughs with incredulity at discussing male suicide rates in the Commons is contemptible, and her comments about Cologne/Birmingham don't exactly inspire confidence either.
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I think the West Midlands will be horrendous for Labour with unexpectedly high swings and some very high profile casualties including but not limited to Phillips. For example, Tom Watson is at real risk as well.DavidL said:
Really? The Lib Dems are going nowhere and the Tories are surely far too far back even with a significant UKIP bounce. She looks pretty safe to me.ydoethur said:
I'm afraid I don't, which is why I have ruled her out as the next leader.foxinsoxuk said:But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
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I agree. My favourite female Labour MP. Feisty and funny. It's hard to see her as a PM but that's something we doesn't need to worry about for a whilefoxinsoxuk said:
Jon Ashworth still available at 80, I see...felix said:As I recall Cooper is the one who emote about child refugees and asked one pithy question at PMQs. Her ministerial record was very poor. If she is the answer the party is in a bad way. Those thousands of left wing members will all still be there.
But if looking for a woman who can do a Kinnock on Militant, look no furtber than Jess Phillips.0 -
Yes, but there are reasons. Although many Corbynites do indeed have huge awareness issues, that comes from the fact that so many of them are keyboard warriors caught up in their own echo chamber. Those doing the canvassing, if reports are right, are still dominated by the pre-2015 membership and - at least in my area - they know full well the scale of their unpopularity.ThomasNashe said:
Re. your penultimate paragraph, self-awareness does not strike me as one of the most prominent qualities of the average Corbynista. 9 June will be the day everyone in the Party needs to wake up to reality.ydoethur said:
Why? Surely the big problem in 1992 was that as in 1970 (and indeed 2015) Labour didn't see it coming. They were convinced they were going to win or at least force a hung parliament (one of the more amusing moments of the 1992 election coverage is Gordon Brown saying that because the Tories had lost their overall majority they should resign immediately and let Labour take power even if Labour were second overall). They just had no idea of how unpopular they still were.ThomasNashe said:Just to add, I remember how traumatic the 1992 defeat was the for the party - and this coming one will be far worse. It was the memory of the defeat two years earlier that meant that Blair was able to win the 1994 leadership election so easily.
This time even the most stupid Corbynista must know they are in for the worst beating since Margaret d'Anjou turned her exhausted and outnumbered forces to face the rampaging Edward IV at Tewkesbury in 1471. They cannot believe that the apologist for terrorism is popular unless they are suffering from serious sight and hearing impediments.
Of course, the revelation that everyone can see how loathsome they are will be a trauma for people who genuinely believe they are decent, always right and normal. Whether it will jerk them to reality is a different question. But a trauma like 1992? Can't see it.0 -
Are you suggesting an LD gain or a Tory one? I cannot see a Tory one looking at the local figures.ydoethur said:
I think the West Midlands will be horrendous for Labour with unexpectedly high swings and some very high profile casualties including but not limited to Phillips. For example, Tom Watson is at real risk as well.DavidL said:
Really? The Lib Dems are going nowhere and the Tories are surely far too far back even with a significant UKIP bounce. She looks pretty safe to me.ydoethur said:
I'm afraid I don't, which is why I have ruled her out as the next leader.foxinsoxuk said:But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
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Dr. Foxinsox, I'm not interested. If she takes action that's contrary to her giggling imbecile routine, I'll take notice, but I'm not interested in reading her claimed view so much as her actual behaviour.0
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Exactly. Which is why I think it is likely that the Corbynistas will fade away, and the moderates re-assert control after June 9.david_herdson said:
Yes, but there are reasons. Although many Corbynites do indeed have huge awareness issues, that comes from the fact that so many of them are keyboard warriors caught up in their own echo chamber. Those doing the canvassing, if reports are right, are still dominated by the pre-2015 membership and - at least in my area - they know full well the scale of their unpopularity.ThomasNashe said:
Re. your penultimate paragraph, self-awareness does not strike me as one of the most prominent qualities of the average Corbynista. 9 June will be the day everyone in the Party needs to wake up to reality.ydoethur said:
Why? Surely the big problem in 1992 was that as in 1970 (and indeed 2015) Labour didn't see it coming. They were convinced they were going to win or at least force a hung parliament (one of the more amusing moments of the 1992 election coverage is Gordon Brown saying that because the Tories had lost their overall majority they should resign immediately and let Labour take power even if Labour were second overall). They just had no idea of how unpopular they still were.ThomasNashe said:Just to add, I remember how traumatic the 1992 defeat was the for the party - and this coming one will be far worse. It was the memory of the defeat two years earlier that meant that Blair was able to win the 1994 leadership election so easily.
This time even the most stupid Corbynista must know they are in for the worst beating since Margaret d'Anjou turned her exhausted and outnumbered forces to face the rampaging Edward IV at Tewkesbury in 1471. They cannot believe that the apologist for terrorism is popular unless they are suffering from serious sight and hearing impediments.
Of course, the revelation that everyone can see how loathsome they are will be a trauma for people who genuinely believe they are decent, always right and normal. Whether it will jerk them to reality is a different question. But a trauma like 1992? Can't see it.0 -
I think the people of the North East will be with dissident Skipper Buchan. Is it now illegal to criticize the partitionist occupation ?Theuniondivvie said:Kippers in kilts update.
Some nascent signs that the media worm is turning with regard to Ruthy.
https://twitter.com/markmcdsnp/status/863183636262264836
Of course it's no revelation that the SCons are happy to soak up the racist bigot vote, but they've become too complacent about doing it openly. Douce Unionist folk don't want to open their breakfast newspaper to news of councillors' manhoods or loonballs calling for politicians to be taken out.0
