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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Cor
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The 2017 LAB leadership contest starts on June 9th whether Corbyn quits then or not
The first phase of Labour’s 2017 leadership contest ended on Thursday afternoon when nominations closed for the June 9th General Election. Those like John Rentoul who have analysed the list of candidates for seats that LAB could possibly hold onto say that there will not be enough Corbyn supporting MPs elected in the general election for them to make a nomination according to Labour’s rules.
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https://candidates.democracyclub.org.uk/media/candidates-parl.2017-06-08.csv
Here's my tally of how many seats have N candidates:
3 - 22
4 - 173
5 - 266
6 - 134
7 - 42
8 - 9
10 - 2
13 - 1 (Maidenhead!)
Personally I think the moderate candidates are too short and the Left too long. Corbyn will only step down when he has changed the election rules - or the past two years misery for him has been for nought.
Even if the balance of the PLP changes after the election, the membership will still be strongly Left and frustrated at the election being stolen by the moderates' disloyalty and the right-wing press. They will support again a left candidate - who will win.
The risk in these bets is if the party splits, then who is the leader of the real Labour party. That could take a long time to resolve through the courts, unless the splitters set up a new party with no pretence to continue the Labour brand. In which case the next "Labour" leader will certainly be another candidate from the left. If you buy that scenario - then back half a dozen of the left candidates at those prices and you're still likely to be green,
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/05/12/world/europe/wannacry-ransomware-map.html
Wouldn't go near this type of betting (on next lab leader) at such short odds.
Edit sorry responded to wrong comment chain
But if looking for a woman who can do a Kinnock on Militant, look no furtber than Jess Phillips.
However, I'd point to the phrase, "growing consensus" in the article. Perhaps this time it's different but I've always taken that to mean no consensus other than in the mind of the person which hopes to be the beneficiary of such consensus.
And Snowflake really isn't that good. She's a dwarf among pygmies.
Now that Osborne is out of the picture the field is wide open.
2) Up against Cooper, he would win again. The mere facts that she's female, intelligent, experienced, and popular with the PLP do not compensate for the fact that she's uninspiring, incompetent and right wing.
3) There seems a genuine risk she will lose Normanton. At the last two elections there has been an above average swing in NP&C - both for and against. If she loses 5 points to the Liberal Democrats, 5 points to abstentions and the UKIP vote breaks Tory as the opinion polls suggest, her majority would be in the hundreds not the thousands. A tiny direct swing would topple her.
4) I agree with the good Dr @foxinsoxuk that Ashworth is the one to watch even at that price. He's loyal, acceptable to the left, doesn't raise antipathy on the right and the only major spokesman not to have made a total dog's dinner of his brief so far.
Indeed, given the toxicity of some of that group's membership, arguably he is doing far more for the Conservatives than the Monday Club!
When Rebecca Long-Bailey is touted as a serious contender - a woman who is barely fit to be a parish councillor* - there is a disastrous shortage of talent.
*I mean no disrespect to the hundreds of thousands of hard working, conscientious and able parish councillors out there helping their local areas. Long-Bailey scarce deserves to be in such company.
Can’t believe Tinkerbelle is still being touted as next leader, desperate times indeed.
(If any irony meters just exploded, buy your own replacements!)
https://twitter.com/Aaron4DonValley/status/863277691667132416
Telling choice of avatar.
Corbyn is doing better than Farron. Farron is very weak.
In all ways it was a spectacularly asinine comment by Stephen Bush
Farron was expected to massively increase Orange exposure, energise their vote and more than double the number of seats riding an anti-Brexit horse. The bar was high. So far he has only done one of those things. But the other two were always impossible asks at this stage.
To be blunt, I think once you strip out the expectations their actual performance hasn't been wildly different. Farron hasn't leaked his own manifesto or run over the BBC team covering his campaign.
The nation is better served by having functioning opposition parties in parliament that are able to hold the government fully to account.
A Labour party with a leader worthy of the name as a government in waiting, LibDems who need more than a phone box for parliamentary party meetings, some headbangers from UKIP and strong representation from the Celtic nations are in the national interest.
Tame ranks of Tory MP's in a landslide less so.
Therein lies the kernel of the problem.
Is the EPLP big enough to put up a candidate of its own?
Incidentally Stephen is good value on the New statesmen podcast each week.
On policy, if Yvette Cooper won would we see the ideas of the 2017 manifesto dumped and a shift back to Milibandism or even Blairism? Would the membership accept that? Will a Corbyn defeat see the scales fall from their eyes and an embracing of a more centrist approach? I have my doubts. Which means the next Labour leader might either be someone of the left or someone who is willing to wage war with the left a la Kinnock. Parties at war with themselves rarely provide good opposition. The next parliament looks to be very challenging for Labour if it keeps itself together. It might be a 1983-1987 regrouping parliament, a period of adjustment and ideological battles in preparation for 2027.
'Has to be a woman'?
Call me crazy, but we should judge politicians by the content of their heads, not their trousers.
Surely the large number of milk and water Labour MPs more interested in their ministerial positions under Blair and Brown or second homes and expenses than actually representing their members and constituents has caused the membership to rebel and select Corbyn.
Not sure a new leader will make any difference especially if the members wishes are ignored by the MPs in the nomination process.
Of more concern is that there's no political substance inside the smart suit - he's spent less time with working class voters than Lady Nugee.
Have you done the Minehead to Bishops Lydeard steam railway? We had a day on it a few weeks back at their gala weekend. great fun and the technology behind the Victorian turntable is amazing. Two men can turn the train round.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4501456/amp/Even-Corbyn-s-ex-lover-Diane-Abbott-airbrushing-out.html
This time even the most stupid Corbynista must know they are in for the worst beating since Margaret d'Anjou turned her exhausted and outnumbered forces to face the rampaging Edward IV at Tewkesbury in 1471. They cannot believe that the apologist for terrorism is popular unless they are suffering from serious sight and hearing impediments.
Of course, the revelation that everyone can see how loathsome they are will be a trauma for people who genuinely believe they are decent, always right and normal. Whether it will jerk them to reality is a different question. But a trauma like 1992? Can't see it.
1) He is competent, and a consensus builder. A Brownite historically, but one of the few willing to work in the Shadow Cabinet. He knows the NEC, the rulebook, and unions well, so would have internal support for some of the internal party tasks. He wasn't in the last Labour government so is a clean skin.
2) He has a safe seat, and while a white male again, is at least a working class northern one. His backstory is interesting, and his campaigning for families of alcoholics shows him to be more than the party apparatchik parachuted into a safe seat that I had him down as.
But I am not kidding about Jess Phillips either. She is a fighter, and an outspoken street fighter at that, one who loathes Jezza but is hardly the polished Blairite. She could purge Momentum and tear lumps out of May in Parliament. She is quite close to HH so may well get the support of the sisterhood. Her book is well worth reading. I think she will keep her seat.
My reservation is the last time she stood for the leadership. It was such a lacklustre effort, I don't believe that her heart was in it. I don't think she particularly welcomes the scrutiny or the challenges of leading. She likes campaigning against things but was an uninspired Minister when asked to make the hard decisions.
I can't really see her lead Labour to a victory. But she will improve their image, repair some of the damage, make them look a bit more competent and consolidate, a Michael Howard type role perhaps. Where is the next Cameron/Osborne, Blair/Brown combo? That is the real question.
Some nascent signs that the media worm is turning with regard to Ruthy.
https://twitter.com/markmcdsnp/status/863183636262264836
Of course it's no revelation that the SCons are happy to soak up the racist bigot vote, but they've become too complacent about doing it openly. Douce Unionist folk don't want to open their breakfast newspaper to news of councillors' manhoods or loonballs calling for politicians to be taken out.
https://twitter.com/telegraph/status/863295249694830592