politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe I’m reading GE2017 wrongly but this must be the worst be
Comments
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1/33 looks about right.Jason said:Today's manifesto 'launch' hasn't changed the odds over at Hill's one jot. The Tories are still a mind boggling 1/33 to achieve a majoirty, and 1/100 to get the most seats. Is there any precedent for these kinds of numbers?
1/100 is ridiculous. 1/100,000 more like.0 -
6/4 seems ok? Kipper plus Tories > Lab in 2015 and 17ydoethur said:
Gareth Snell, a latter day Oswald O'Brien?TheScreamingEagles said:Jesus my bet might be a WINNER
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862720118161387523
Hard to believe the Tories would not have given him at the least a severe fright if they hadn't been distracted by Copeland.0 -
Betfair:ydoethur said:
1/33 looks about right.Jason said:Today's manifesto 'launch' hasn't changed the odds over at Hill's one jot. The Tories are still a mind boggling 1/33 to achieve a majoirty, and 1/100 to get the most seats. Is there any precedent for these kinds of numbers?
1/100 is ridiculous. 1/100,000 more like.
Most seats - 1.03
Majority - 1.060 -
Subhanahu Wa Ta'ala! (Glory to him, the Exalted!)Mortimer said:
Always difficult searching twitter for SouthWestTrains!!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asking for a friend:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.
Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.
And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.
Isn't it the Will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked?0 -
NoKIP in Swansea West or Eltham0
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Batley and Spen just became a nailed on Tory gain.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter0 -
Oh please, lots of people think that, it's wishful thinking.isam said:0 -
Those seem fair odds. I would say Labour are evens at best however rather than 8/11. Snell didn't impress as a candidate and without the full support of the Labour machine, with the Brexit vote behind one candidate, this could be close.isam said:
6/4 seems ok? Kipper plus Tories > Lab in 2015 and 17ydoethur said:
Gareth Snell, a latter day Oswald O'Brien?TheScreamingEagles said:Jesus my bet might be a WINNER
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862720118161387523
Hard to believe the Tories would not have given him at the least a severe fright if they hadn't been distracted by Copeland.0 -
Mortimer said:
Good news for Aaron!isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
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what news of sheffield hallam?0
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NoKIP Bassetlaw0
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Anything that helps TissuePrice in Don Valley is a good thing (Also my 8/1).isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
http://www.crowdfunder.co.uk/aaron-bell-for-don-valley/backers/?0 -
I think there will be a very wide coalition of Remainers who have accepted Brexit as a fact (like me) and Leavers who like the high life (like SeanT I think? although nailing his precise view isn't easy) who would be very happy with such an outcome at least to start with.kle4 said:
Oh please, lots of people think that, it's wishful thinking.isam said:
Ultimately of course we will have to fully withdraw because the EU will be unable to deal with any other outcome logistically or emotionally. But the more protracted and managed the transition the better for everyone.0 -
If the will of Allah had it that we'd be born wearing party costume then what would we in fact see. Suppose the will of Allah is that we should be born in a way that can't in any way connect Allah with the process. Wow, that's entirely what we see. So Allah doesn't exist or he's trying to be seen not to exist. In the latter case why?Mortimer said:
Always difficult searching twitter for SouthWestTrains!!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Asking for a friend:TheScreamingEagles said:
Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.
Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.
And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.
Isn't it the Will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked?
I don't mind, I really don't. If with your Allah-isms you find victims then I do mind. In that circumstance I mind very much.0 -
Get in. I'm on Stoke Central at 5-1.ydoethur said:
Gareth Snell, a latter day Oswald O'Brien?TheScreamingEagles said:Jesus my bet might be a WINNER
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862720118161387523
Hard to believe the Tories would not have given him at the least a severe fright if they hadn't been distracted by Copeland.0 -
I agree, and like many leavers I'd be happy with it too, but every 'sign' we might be able to have that seems dashed.ydoethur said:
I think there will be a very wide coalition of Remainers who have accepted Brexit as a fact (like me) and Leavers who like the high life (like SeanT I think? although nailing his precise view isn't easy) who would be very happy with such an outcome at least to start with.kle4 said:
Oh please, lots of people think that, it's wishful thinking.isam said:
Ultimately of course we will have to fully withdraw because the EU will be unable to deal with any other outcome logistically or emotionally. But the more protracted and managed the transition the better for everyone.0 -
There speaks a man who got a VERY good price.Pulpstar said:
Get in. I'm on Stoke Central at 5-1.ydoethur said:
Gareth Snell, a latter day Oswald O'Brien?TheScreamingEagles said:Jesus my bet might be a WINNER
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/862720118161387523
Hard to believe the Tories would not have given him at the least a severe fright if they hadn't been distracted by Copeland.
I don't think 5-1 is still available!0 -
Panic, isolated panic.Scrapheap_as_was said:what news of sheffield hallam?
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Trumpton
Some interesting law enforcement activity going on in virginia in the area surrounding DC. How significant, how substantial will be a question mark as this is only one of the inquiries under way.
GOP is potentially just as much in firing line as the Trump associates though.
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Hi Sam, will you be standing in Upminster??isam said:NoKIP in Swansea West or Eltham
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Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.0 -
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
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Batley and Spen at 11-10 looks good value given the no kippers standing.
It's around the same price as Bassetlaw, which is no bet for me at the odds - reckon Mann knows his constituency with his leave campaigning.0 -
How ?!ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
I think Brake is a slim chance to hold on. UKIP aren't running in his seat and those votes will head straight to the Tories.0 -
Apparently there was an error and UKIP are standing in Stoke C0
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May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)0 -
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Damn. Still think 5-1 is a good price though.GarethoftheVale2 said:Apparently there was an error and UKIP are standing in Stoke C
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Any 'why are you so awesome, Prime Minster?' questions?RobD said:May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)
Although given the voting intentions, apparently around 45% of people are in effect CCHQ stooges, as no one else would dream of voting Tory. Yes, that means you, snake.0 -
Incidentally i think the odds in Cannock Chase are wrong too. Don't get me wrong, I expect Amanda Milling to win. But no way is she 99% certain to win. This is the Labour candidate;
https://www.expressandstar.com/news/local-hubs/staffordshire/cannock/2017/05/02/77-hero-paul-dadge-selected-as-labour-candidate-in-cannock-chase-for-the-general-election/
Interesting man with all the right components. He will also surely not be as inept as Janos Toth, who was famously one of about three candidates to see a swing against Labour in 1997 and who campaigned to put Mid Staffordshire NHS Trust back the way it was under Labour. I'd say Tory 1/3, Labour 8-1. Heck, if it weren't for the Jezaster I'd probably vote for him.0 -
Don't you mean, "why are you so awesome, Dear Leader?"kle4 said:
Any 'why are you so awesome, Prime Minster?' questions?RobD said:May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)
Although given the voting intentions, apparently around 45% of people are in effect CCHQ stooges, as no one else would dream of voting Tory. Yes, that means you, snake.
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The Tories only need a 1.6% swing, and there are UKIP votes to squeeze (14.8% last time)ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.0 -
I haven't received my briefing paper from HQ yet.RobD said:
Don't you mean, "why are you so awesome, Dear Leader?"kle4 said:
Any 'why are you so awesome, Prime Minster?' questions?RobD said:May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)
Although given the voting intentions, apparently around 45% of people are in effect CCHQ stooges, as no one else would dream of voting Tory. Yes, that means you, snake.0 -
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.0 -
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!0 -
Make or BrakePulpstar said:
How ?!ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
I think Brake is a slim chance to hold on. UKIP aren't running in his seat and those votes will head straight to the Tories.
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We are going to be looking at a fascinating set of hyper-marginals next time around....chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.0 -
Where is the 10/1?ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!
This could be Eastleigh all over again.0 -
Using yesterday's London switcher numbers, Eltham is recount territory.MarqueeMark said:
We are going to be looking at a fascinating set of hyper-marginals next time around....chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.0 -
Good evening friends - any polls tonight?0
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I suspect UKIP standing down actually helps Brake, as the Conservative can be portrayed as UKIP-lite. That being said, I'd want 3-1 to bet on Brake.Pulpstar said:
How ?!ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
I think Brake is a slim chance to hold on. UKIP aren't running in his seat and those votes will head straight to the Tories.0 -
And Labour are nominally standing, but most of their votes were probably among the 46% remain vote and will go to Brake.Pulpstar said:
How ?!ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
I think Brake is a slim chance to hold on. UKIP aren't running in his seat and those votes will head straight to the Tories.0 -
No, this isn't correct - voters have no problems electing a party from third.ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!0 -
I am sitting in Upminster at the moment!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Hi Sam, will you be standing in Upminster??isam said:NoKIP in Swansea West or Eltham
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Ah, sorry, Mr Eagles - those are the odds I have put on them winning. So far a si know the bookies haven't moved at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where is the 10/1?ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!
This could be Eastleigh all over again.
I would certainly advise everyone against 6/4!0 -
Picking up on the chaos of Labour's manifesto leaks (in Vancouver at present) can someone tell me how this is going to firm up labour's London seats.
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I meant that there seems a reasonable chance the rather pathetic number UKIP will likely get in the absence of His Royal Highness Lord Nuttall VC and Bar, PhD and JC will in all likelihood be larger than the Labour majority if there is one.Pulpstar said:
No, this isn't correct - voters have no problems electing a party from third.ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!0 -
6-4 is probably closer to the mark than 10-1, even with UKIP standing.ydoethur said:
Ah, sorry, Mr Eagles - those are the odds I have put on them winning. So far a si know the bookies haven't moved at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where is the 10/1?ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!
This could be Eastleigh all over again.
I would certainly advise everyone against 6/4!0 -
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.0 -
I suspect the good people of Stoke Central are going to get some very dodgy bar charts from the Tories showing only the Tories can beat Labour here.Pulpstar said:
6-4 is probably closer to the mark than 10-1, even with UKIP standing.ydoethur said:
Ah, sorry, Mr Eagles - those are the odds I have put on them winning. So far a si know the bookies haven't moved at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where is the 10/1?ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!
This could be Eastleigh all over again.
I would certainly advise everyone against 6/4!0 -
That's rather sad. As Richard Burton said unto Richard Harris in The Wild Geese, 'Don't you have any decent friends?'murali_s said:0 -
Sorry about that! Those 'ugly' comment(s) were a bit out of order. Evil a different kettle of fish!RobD said: 0 -
T'other way round. The LibDems have gone with the progressive alliance approach BECAUSE they weren't winning over any Conservative voters.David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.0 -
If I come across one I'll post it on here for youTheScreamingEagles said:
I suspect the good people of Stoke Central are going to get some very dodgy bar charts from the Tories showing on the Tories can beat Labour here.Pulpstar said:
6-4 is probably closer to the mark than 10-1, even with UKIP standing.ydoethur said:
Ah, sorry, Mr Eagles - those are the odds I have put on them winning. So far a si know the bookies haven't moved at all.TheScreamingEagles said:
Where is the 10/1?ydoethur said:
Those two hundred votes could literally make all the difference.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tories suddenly back to 10-1!
This could be Eastleigh all over again.
I would certainly advise everyone against 6/4!
Edit - my personal favourite of those ever was a Conservative one, in Ceredigion long ago. They posted a chart describing the LibDem one as dodgy and showed one that put the Tories second and the yellows fourth.
The Liberal Democrats won the seat...0 -
Carried away? Undoubtedly. But if ever there was a chance for them to go, it would be now.PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.0 -
Well the Gower was Labour in 1983, I wouldn't put too much store in what places were doing in 1983 to be perfectly honest.PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.0 -
Come on May... admit that you called the election to ensure a safe and secure society....0
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May is taking questions on LBC right now.
Not doing too well on the immigration question.0 -
Just because you disagree with someone on politics doesn't mean you can't be friends. I think in these times we need to disagree well. The best posters on here are certainly those who are polite to those of a different point of viewRobD said:
I assume that greeting doesn't cover PB Tories.murali_s said:Good evening friends - any polls tonight?
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Na, just teasing murali_s because of his earlier post:Nemtynakht said:
Just because you disagree with someone on politics doesn't mean you can't be friends. I think in these times we need to disagree well. The best posters on here are certainly those who are polite to those of a different point of viewRobD said:
I assume that greeting doesn't cover PB Tories.murali_s said:Good evening friends - any polls tonight?
"LOL @ PB Tories. You really are a pathetic tribe and you're probably ugly m*thf*ckers too!"0 -
The Lib Dem manifesto sets out a plan to take 50,000 refugees over five years from Syria in the next parliament, as well as reopening the Dubs programme for unaccompanied asylum seeking children stranded in Europe, and working with international partners to create safe and legal routes.
If it is a point of principle how do the Lib Dems justify limiting the prgramme to 50,000 and only Syrians?
Heartless Lib Dems?
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Just feeding in the numbers the pollsters are providing, Paul.PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.
It's worth remembering the pollsters are posing a question where UKIP are still a voting option. They won't be in these contituencies (except Stoke C).0 -
Whilst there is some merit to what you say some areas change, there are local scandals with council and MPs etc, and people just don't remember the old arguments. Even though the SNP seemed likely to do very well in 2015 the same arguments were made about Labour holding seats.Pulpstar said:
Well the Gower was Labour in 1983, I wouldn't put too much store in what places were doing in 1983 to be perfectly honest.PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.0 -
You can be friends with people who have different political views, though I personally have a limit when I feel that someone's views go way too far - e.g. those EDL and Britain First types.0
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It is self delusion on a grand scale . Post election how many will admit to having lost money backing their rampings .PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.0 -
The boundaries there were very different in 1983 - and the seat would still be Labour-held without those changes.Pulpstar said:
Well the Gower was Labour in 1983, I wouldn't put too much store in what places were doing in 1983 to be perfectly honest.PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.-1 -
We could really do with an article about the seats not being contested and likely effects - sounds complicated to analyse though0
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Sacked David Ward to run as independent to 'clear name' in anti-Semitism row
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15277115.Sacked_David_Ward_to_run_as_independent_to__clear_name__in_anti_Semitism_row/0 -
If you listened to LBC, you would know none of the caller's were CCHQ stooges. She got quite a hard time, both on the NHS and immigration.RobD said:
Don't you mean, "why are you so awesome, Dear Leader?"kle4 said:
Any 'why are you so awesome, Prime Minster?' questions?RobD said:May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)
Although given the voting intentions, apparently around 45% of people are in effect CCHQ stooges, as no one else would dream of voting Tory. Yes, that means you, snake.
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Did you lose money on any of your ramping?MarkSenior said:
It is self delusion on a grand scale . Post election how many will admit to having lost money backing their rampings .PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands.
More pertinently, a win for the Tories is expected, from fairly big to landslide big - some seats that have been Labour a long long time are going to go, even if where and how many will be areas of disagreement.0 -
Wrong as usual, Mr Mark. The Lib Dems are not part of a progressive alliance. This could hardly be possible, when the Labour Party has gone mad, under Mr Corbyn`s leadership.MarqueeMark said:
T'other way round. The LibDems have gone with the progressive alliance approach BECAUSE they weren't winning over any Conservative voters.David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.
The Lib Dem leadership has made it perfectly clear that they will not be entering into a coalition with anybody, neither Corbyn`s Labour nor May`s UKIP-Conservatives.
The objective is to replace Labour so that Mrs May has to face a proper opposition, scrutiny and challenge.0 -
no UKIP in St Ives or North Cornwall. Truro is the only Cornish Seat they're standing in.0
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Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks. The public will be interested in the issues raised and a Tory response on the lines of 'strong and stable leadership' simply will not wash.0
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Not sure how good the chances of the LDs there was in any case, but it surely never helps to have a high profile former member of your party standing in a seat you were interested in.Tykejohnno said:Sacked David Ward to run as independent to 'clear name' in anti-Semitism row
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15277115.Sacked_David_Ward_to_run_as_independent_to__clear_name__in_anti_Semitism_row/0 -
Instead they should have thought about a better tactic to win over Conservative remainers - that is the biggest pool in which to fish.MarqueeMark said:
T'other way round. The LibDems have gone with the progressive alliance approach BECAUSE they weren't winning over any Conservative voters.David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.
Aligning with Corbyn Labour and Greens will lose the Lib Dem voters they do have.
What are the odds for lib Dems to have fewer than five seats?0 -
I'm glad to hear it, though desire for such an alliance (I'm still unclear on what progressive politics are besides being anti-Tory, given it includes Corbynites and Greens, but not moderates on the centre right) is certainly not unheard of in the party. Good to hear they are wishing to stand as their own thing, and try to progress that way.PClipp said:
Wrong as usual, Mr Mark. The Lib Dems are not part of a progressive alliance. This could hardly be possible, when the Labour Party has gone mad, under Mr Corbyn`s leadership.MarqueeMark said:
T'other way round. The LibDems have gone with the progressive alliance approach BECAUSE they weren't winning over any Conservative voters.David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.
The Lib Dem leadership has made it perfectly clear that they will not be entering into a coalition with anybody, neither Corbyn`s Labour nor May`s UKIP-Conservatives.
The objective is to replace Labour so that Mrs May has to face a proper opposition, scrutiny and challenge.0 -
Playing a blinder would have been:justin124 said:Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks.
-not leaking it
-not having a tool as leader
-getting rid of the batsh... crazy policies
They failed on all three. Nice one Labour.0 -
Yeah, I was jokingLadyBucket said:
If you listened to LBC, you would know none of the caller's were CCHQ stooges. She got quite a hard time, both on the NHS and immigration.RobD said:
Don't you mean, "why are you so awesome, Dear Leader?"kle4 said:
Any 'why are you so awesome, Prime Minster?' questions?RobD said:May "meeting" real voters on LBC now.
(Although they could be CCHQ stooges.)
Although given the voting intentions, apparently around 45% of people are in effect CCHQ stooges, as no one else would dream of voting Tory. Yes, that means you, snake.
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How'd your local elections predictions go?MarkSenior said:
It is self delusion on a grand scale . Post election how many will admit to having lost money backing their rampings .PaulM said:
I find it hard to believe that parts of the North which stayed Labour even in 1983 when there was a more even split between Labour and the Alliance would go Tory now.chestnut said:
The only Labour holds using national switcher/retention rates are Wentworth and Deane and Doncaster Central.isam said:UKIP aren't standing in...
Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane
@election_data on twitter
Don Valley, Stoke C and B'ham Erdinton all in the 1k-2k majority boundaries.
Posters are getting carried away with assuming UKIP to Tory transfers in Labour heartlands. 0 -
That is a sensible objective, giving you aren't winning over Tory Remainers....PClipp said:
Wrong as usual, Mr Mark. The Lib Dems are not part of a progressive alliance. This could hardly be possible, when the Labour Party has gone mad, under Mr Corbyn`s leadership.MarqueeMark said:
T'other way round. The LibDems have gone with the progressive alliance approach BECAUSE they weren't winning over any Conservative voters.David_Evershed said:
Lib Dems are not going to win over any Conservative voters whilst they are symbolically lining up with Greens and labour in a progressive alliance.ydoethur said:Looking at the odds checker. Interesting to note the Conservatives are favourites in Carshalton and Wellington.
I would have said those odds were the wrong way round myself. I think Brake should just scrape home.
By doing so the Lib Dems have thrown away any chance of Conservative remain voters switching to Lib Dem. Such remainers would have been the biggest group for Lib Dems to target.
The Lib Dem leadership has made it perfectly clear that they will not be entering into a coalition with anybody, neither Corbyn`s Labour nor May`s UKIP-Conservatives.
The objective is to replace Labour so that Mrs May has to face a proper opposition, scrutiny and challenge.
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I take the view that the Tories need to maintain a lead of circa 10% to be confident of taking a significant number of Labour seats. In 2015 the Tories enjoyed a 6.6% lead over Labour so a 10% lead increases the margin by circa 3.5%. That would be a swing from Lab to Con of 1.75% over that two year period and would – assuming a universal swing – result in circa 15 Labour seats falling to the Tories. HOWEVER, most of those Labour seats had new MPs elected in 2015 as a result of the relatively few gains from the Tories or Labour MPs retiring – eg Hampstead & Kilburn and Halifax.Those new MPs can reasonably expect to receive a first time incumbency boost which will make them more difficult to oust than national poll figures might imply. We saw this work to the Tories’ advantage in 2015 when despite a pro-Labour swing in England of 1.1% most Tory MPs defending small majorities in seats gained in 2010 not only survived but increased their majorities! That factor will help Labour this time in most of their very marginal seats – though the Tories will also benefit in seats gained from the LibDems in 2015. So what I am saying , in essence , is that a Tory lead of 10% might well see very few seats change hands between the parties. At the moment the Tory lead appears to be circa 16%/17% – the key question is not whether the Tory lead is going to disappear – very unlikely indeed – but whether Labour can claw it back to 10% or less.0
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Not looking good for MarkSenior's Dunny on the Wild predictions...paulyork64 said:no UKIP in St Ives or North Cornwall. Truro is the only Cornish Seat they're standing in.
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If anyone is interested in America Trump has just contradicted the line that Comey was fired on the recommendation of the DOJ, said he was going to fire him regardless of the recommendation.0
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3% tax free return in a month (36% per annum) on Tory most seats. Irresistible.MikeL said:
Betfair:ydoethur said:
1/33 looks about right.Jason said:Today's manifesto 'launch' hasn't changed the odds over at Hill's one jot. The Tories are still a mind boggling 1/33 to achieve a majoirty, and 1/100 to get the most seats. Is there any precedent for these kinds of numbers?
1/100 is ridiculous. 1/100,000 more like.
Most seats - 1.03
Majority - 1.06
It was the same with Macron v.Le Pen.
The biggest dilemma is how much to stake. It's very liquid. Should I lump all my savings on it? I put £1,000 on Macron but I could have put much more. There's £124,000 available on Betfair at 1.03 for Tory's most seats. Mmm. That's £3,500+ profit available for a month's investment.0 -
Does anyone have any overall figures for UKIP candidates yet?0
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in norfolk UKIP are standing in broadland, great yarmouth, mid norfolk, NW norfolk, SW Norfolk and Waveney.
Missing in North Norfolk, Norwich North, Norwich South, South Norfolk. a couple of these were well flagged in advance tho.0 -
SpIn have suspended their seats market; presumably they're trying to work out how many Kippers and Greens are standing too!Barnesian said:
3% tax free return in a month (36% per annum) on Tory most seats. Irresistible.MikeL said:
Betfair:ydoethur said:
1/33 looks about right.Jason said:Today's manifesto 'launch' hasn't changed the odds over at Hill's one jot. The Tories are still a mind boggling 1/33 to achieve a majoirty, and 1/100 to get the most seats. Is there any precedent for these kinds of numbers?
1/100 is ridiculous. 1/100,000 more like.
Most seats - 1.03
Majority - 1.06
It was the same with Macron v.Le Pen.
The biggest dilemma is how much to stake. It's very liquid. Should I lump all my savings on it? I put £1,000 on Macron but I could have put much more. There's £124,000 available on Betfair at 1.03 for Tory's most seats. Mmm. That's £3,500+ profit available for a month's investment.0 -
It is perfect for a full onslaught from the conservatives.justin124 said:Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks. The public will be interested in the issues raised and a Tory response on the lines of 'strong and stable leadership' simply will not wash.
The policies would seriously damage the UK as we need a positive pro business government who will defend and promote UK business not hand over the business to the hard left controlled by the union barrons.
I would expect CCHQ to be delighted at the state of labour 4 weeks out of a GE and probably find a campaign advert with Corbyn, as a puppet, being manipulared by Mccluskey -
Salmond in 2015 - Mccluskey in 2017
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It's probably helped to ensure Labour hold on to second place.justin124 said:Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks. The public will be interested in the issues raised and a Tory response on the lines of 'strong and stable leadership' simply will not wash.
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Britain Elects @britainelects 25m25 minutes ago
Our polling average update:
Con: 46.7% (+8.9)
Lab: 28.8% (-2.4)
LDem: 9.5% (+1.4)
UKIP: 6.5% (-6.4)
Grn: 3.0% (-0.8)0 -
Were they ever in danger of thatSean_F said:
It's probably helped to ensure Labour hold on to second place.justin124 said:Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks. The public will be interested in the issues raised and a Tory response on the lines of 'strong and stable leadership' simply will not wash.
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Why will it not? I'm prepared to believe it won't, but there's no rule that says the public (considering voting Tory anyway) will be interested even if plenty are, and will not swallow the standard line.justin124 said:Tactically Labour has probably played a blinder with its radical manifesto by making it much more difficult for the Tories to keep the focus on Brexit over the next four weeks. The public will be interested in the issues raised and a Tory response on the lines of 'strong and stable leadership' simply will not wash.
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