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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe I’m reading GE2017 wrongly but this must be the worst be

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  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited May 2017
    PaulM said:

    Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't talk to me about sophistication
    I've BEEN to Leeds

    No offence :)
    I've been to paradise but I've never been to Leeds.

    EDIT neither half of this statement is true, sadly.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    isam said:

    Seems UKIP are standing about 400 candidates.. still don't fancy the 500/1 bet though

    400! That's a lot more than most were expecting, and given the background a good effort by them. Do you have a link/list of seats?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Rich, indeed, was hoping it'd be fewer (I have a pittance on them at 1.66 to get under 10% of the votes).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637

    Mr. Rich, indeed, was hoping it'd be fewer (I have a pittance on them at 1.66 to get under 10% of the votes).

    That 1.66 is quite safe, I'll assure you.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Mr. Rich, indeed, was hoping it'd be fewer (I have a pittance on them at 1.66 to get under 10% of the votes).

    I was hoping they'd stand everywhere and beat natural laws total of lost deposits
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Pulpstar, I suspect so too, but still.

    One is a cautious gambler.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    PaulM said:

    Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't talk to me about sophistication
    I've BEEN to Leeds

    No offence :)
    I worked in Leeds for six years.

    I much preferred to live over sixty miles away in rural North Yorkshire, when the days I could do a 130 mile round trip to work each day.
    i work in leeds now. but only a 40 mile round trip to my bit of rural north yorkshire.

    Mr Dancer is correct I think. York is far nicer.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited May 2017
    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Question, does PP - or any other bookie but for obvious reasons they are the most likely - actually trade on BF as well?
    Pass, that's a question for the bookies.
    I don't know, but I'm pretty sure that all UK bookmakers will use Betfair when it suits them. PP and Betfair are now one and the same in case you didn't know.
    Ladbrokes/Coral have their own exchange (betdaq). Not sure if they use it to manage sportsbook liabilities.

    Unfortunately - in my experience - it's frustratingly illiquid most of the time.

    One of the obstacles which would make bookies wary of laying off politics liabilities on exchanges is small rulebook differences - eg, is NI included? does a majority inc the speaker? etc etc.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    which 3?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Hmmm, I feel i should have laid off my UKIP most seats 500/1 back when it was 50/1 when I had the chance.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2017
    Prodicus said:

    Ex Guido: 'Labour in chaos as its 1970s manifesto leaks.'

    Next week Guido will be complaining about the Tories' 1930s manifesto: grammar schools, fox hunting and Europe isolated by fog in the Channel.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    isam said:

    Seems UKIP are standing about 400 candidates.. still don't fancy the 500/1 bet though

    Yes, but in only about 80 constituencies.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    which 3?
    hey there were 5 women there a minute ago!
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Is the one on the left a snooker referee?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    I think this is a hard GE to bet on really. There have been some obvious misprices early on, and I hope that I've made a few good bets because of that. However trying to create a bet I really like is pretty tough. I backed Tories most seats at 1.13 down to 1.05, but (quite wrongly) it becomes tough to really commit to such a bet.

    I find myself with a portfolio of bets that generally require a Tory victory, and that's all good. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs not making any gains, but also Twickenham is a big bet for me. Quite why anyone thinks Vince should be 66% chance to win escapes me. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs doing poorly. The things that I should be able to really position myself on - Corbyn being a fruitcake for example I can't.

  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Perhaps we could rent Devil's Island from the French?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Devil's_Island
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I stand to make £361.47 if UKIP get most seats. I'm not expecting to collect on this part of the bet.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145
    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Are the police allowed to take photographs of their faces in the normal way?

    (Good evening, everybody)
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Pulpstar said:
    Don't all PPCs get death threats? I'm not condoning them - anyone making them should be brought to justice - but I think I remember talking to a Green Party candidate and saying that, although they've always been there, after Jo Cox and Andrew Pennington, people tend to take them a bit more seriously.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    AnneJGP said:

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Are the police allowed to take photographs of their faces in the normal way?

    (Good evening, everybody)
    "Ms Boular and Ms Dich wore Islamic dress, including full-face veils, which were partially lifted to show their eyes at the request of chief magistrate Emma Arbuthnot.

    Ms Bargouthi wore Islamic dress, but her face was visible"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39885845
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Pong said:

    Omnium said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Question, does PP - or any other bookie but for obvious reasons they are the most likely - actually trade on BF as well?
    Pass, that's a question for the bookies.
    I don't know, but I'm pretty sure that all UK bookmakers will use Betfair when it suits them. PP and Betfair are now one and the same in case you didn't know.
    Ladbrokes/Coral have their own exchange (betdaq). Not sure if they use it to manage sportsbook liabilities.

    Unfortunately - in my experience - it's frustratingly illiquid most of the time.

    One of the obstacles which would make bookies wary of laying off politics liabilities on exchanges is small rulebook differences - eg, is NI included? does a majority inc the speaker? etc etc.
    Yes I know, and you're quite right as to the minefield of interpretation.

    Ladbrokes have certainly transacted on Betfair though. I suspect they'd be a top-20 customer, but I have no evidence to support that.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358
    AnneJGP said:

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Are the police allowed to take photographs of their faces in the normal way?

    (Good evening, everybody)
    Yes
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    "Awwright lurve?!! Yeeeeaaahhh, git yer eyes out!!"

    Like that?
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    PaulM said:

    Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't talk to me about sophistication
    I've BEEN to Leeds

    No offence :)
    I worked in Leeds for six years.

    I much preferred to live over sixty miles away in rural North Yorkshire, when the days I could do a 130 mile round trip to work each day.
    i work in leeds now. but only a 40 mile round trip to my bit of rural north yorkshire.

    Mr Dancer is correct I think. York is far nicer.
    Mr. Dancer may well be correct, but I will say up front, on the whole I like Leeds. It has some shitty bits, but doesn't everywhere, it has a vibrant night-life that wild horses couldn't get me to indulge in (I try and make sure I am tucked up in beddy-byes by 21:30) and it, as far as I can tell, has a crap selection of curry houses. But it has some spiffing architecture, some lovely pubs, and an attitude that I find wholly refreshing. If, God forbid, I was forced to live in a city then Leeds would be a contender for first place - above London.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Faces should be visible in court.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637
    Omnium said:


    Ladbrokes have certainly transacted on Betfair though. I suspect they'd be a top-20 customer, but I have no evidence to support that.

    A good bookie shouldn't need to , in the long run they're giving away profit if the odds are being made correctly.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145

    AnneJGP said:

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Are the police allowed to take photographs of their faces in the normal way?

    (Good evening, everybody)
    Yes
    Thank you.

    (and to @isam)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    Faces should be visible in court.

    Agreed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358

    Faces should be visible in court.

    It's at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    https://www.theguardian.com/law/2013/aug/23/judge-refuses-muslim-to-wear-burqa-court
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    There are 13 candidates in Maidenhead, 10 in Islington North, 4 in Westmoreland & Lonsdale, 4 in Buckingham.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Omnium said:


    Ladbrokes have certainly transacted on Betfair though. I suspect they'd be a top-20 customer, but I have no evidence to support that.

    A good bookie shouldn't need to , in the long run they're giving away profit if the odds are being made correctly.
    Yes, however I stand by what I said. I have some knowledge of this area.
  • Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't panic. Pop means fizzy lemonade in these parts.
  • Aren't all losing bets as terrible as each other in the only really valid sense?

    I've had plenty of bets I thought were very canny, but which didn't win, and the money is exactly as lost as with my dumb bets.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Loony, only four in Farron's seat, and one's a fish finger?

    If his majority is small, it may be the fish finger that saves him.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JohnLoony said:

    There are 13 candidates in Maidenhead, 10 in Islington North, 4 in Westmoreland & Lonsdale, 4 in Buckingham.

    Where do you get your information about candidates?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely if it becomes clear that UKIP aren't fielding enough candidates to win a majority, then it's actually impossible for that outcome and the bookie should refund? (But not in this specific case, as the bet was made before nominations closed)

    It'll still be mathematically possible even if UKIP run around 80 candidates, providing there are enough independents/NHA/Yorkshire First etc etc.
    Indeed, I got confused between majority and plurality while on the phone.
    UKIP Majority is impossible without 326 nominations, whereas the largest party could conceivably be anyone.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637
    edited May 2017

    Aren't all losing bets as terrible as each other in the only really valid sense?

    I've had plenty of bets I thought were very canny, but which didn't win, and the money is exactly as lost as with my dumb bets.

    Don;t think so:
    If you can back 2 horses at 5-4 in a two horse race then one of the bets will definitely lose but you'll end up ahead.
    If you back two horses at 4-5 then one bet will also definitely lose but you'll end up behind.

    Is this bet value is always the question.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    Pulpstar said:
    Don't all PPCs get death threats? I'm not condoning them - anyone making them should be brought to justice - but I think I remember talking to a Green Party candidate and saying that, although they've always been there, after Jo Cox and Andrew Pennington, people tend to take them a bit more seriously.
    'Die you bitch" is not a death threat, but I'm pretty sure it's probably an offence. A friend of mine got herself in a sticky mess on twitter after saying something she shouldn't. She got an email from someone saying he was going to rape her.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Pulpstar said:

    Aren't all losing bets as terrible as each other in the only really valid sense?

    I've had plenty of bets I thought were very canny, but which didn't win, and the money is exactly as lost as with my dumb bets.

    Don;t think so:
    If you can back 2 horses at 5-4 in a two horse race then one of the bets will definitely lose but you'll end up ahead.
    If you back two horses at 4-5 then one bet will also definitely lose but you'll end up behind.

    Is this bet value is always the question.
    BUT if you bet your life savings on a good value loser, you will still have lost it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    I stand to make £361.47 if UKIP get most seats. I'm not expecting to collect on this part of the bet.

    I gain £3560 so I'm looking for a bet effort for Nuttal and crew.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    i'll look up more :)

    armouries is definitely on my list for when my grandson is a little older.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358
    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What inference, though? That you are disguising your face in order to make it more difficult to know if you are lying?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Eagles, in court, a defendant's reaction may give away their innocence or guilt. If they've covered their face, they've covered their reaction.

    In a free society, all defendants should be treated equally.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    I'm puzzled as to why Welsh Labour should be amongst the most vociferous opponents of Corbyn's suicide note. If anywhere in the UK was going to support renationalisation and a redistributive agenda I'd have thought Wales would have been near the top.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    Oddly enough when I did jury service, one of the witnesses identified the perpetrator in a GBH case from the dock. Given that they had not previously been able to pick them out of a line up, the defence objected and the judge declared a mistrial.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Is the one on the left a snooker referee?
    Doing the Len Ganley stance....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637
    edited May 2017

    Pulpstar said:

    Aren't all losing bets as terrible as each other in the only really valid sense?

    I've had plenty of bets I thought were very canny, but which didn't win, and the money is exactly as lost as with my dumb bets.

    Don;t think so:
    If you can back 2 horses at 5-4 in a two horse race then one of the bets will definitely lose but you'll end up ahead.
    If you back two horses at 4-5 then one bet will also definitely lose but you'll end up behind.

    Is this bet value is always the question.
    BUT if you bet your life savings on a good value loser, you will still have lost it.
    That'd be unwise.

    I think there were some serious Kelly criterion calculations that could be done around Macron though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What inference, though? That you are disguising your face in order to make it more difficult to know if you are lying?
    That, and some people will conclude that you've got something to hide, and there are of course some people who don't like the burka and the niqab in the UK, myself included.

    As a dedicated follower of fashion, I also look down on people, who wear dental floss thin ties, or the front part of the tie is shorter than the back part.

    And don't even get me started on people who wear trainers with suits.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    You say that and you are a lawyer? Stunning. The oral, personal nature of the court system has just passed you by has it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    You say that and you are a lawyer? Stunning. The oral, personal nature of the court system has just passed you by has it?
    See my post directly below yours.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038
    Omnium said:

    I think this is a hard GE to bet on really. There have been some obvious misprices early on, and I hope that I've made a few good bets because of that. However trying to create a bet I really like is pretty tough. I backed Tories most seats at 1.13 down to 1.05, but (quite wrongly) it becomes tough to really commit to such a bet.

    I find myself with a portfolio of bets that generally require a Tory victory, and that's all good. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs not making any gains, but also Twickenham is a big bet for me. Quite why anyone thinks Vince should be 66% chance to win escapes me. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs doing poorly. The things that I should be able to really position myself on - Corbyn being a fruitcake for example I can't.

    Yes, it seems harder than 2015 so far and only 4 weeks are left.
    Some have been very good value, like Lib.Dems <27 seats @ 1.83, i.e. before the mid-band plunged to 15.5.

    I still have a short list - actually, quite a long list - of constituency odds to assess & maybe bet on. Mostly the kind where quoted odds are 1.2-1.3 but I think they're really 1.02-1.05, or the odds are 2.0 and should be 1.4 ... that kind of thing. I think anything much longer has gone. I tend to agree on Twickenham.

    Against that, so far there've been no Fallon attacks for 'these disgraceful proposals for unilateral disarmament'. There were more attacks on Foot in 1983 than there've been on Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158

    Faces should be visible in court.

    However, it would be difficult for a judge wearing a long horsehair wig to keep a straight face while telling someone off for being inappropriately dressed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Absolutely, but people in a court still shouldn't be permitted to be conceal their identity and/or hide their emotions from the jury.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    We just need to learn a way of dealing with people in disguise. Personally I think it's 'sorry, go away, and come back when I can see your face', but it's up to all of us to decide as we see fit. I think that allowing people to discriminate as they see fit is a clear corollary of this. If you want to say 'no stupid people with tall hair admitted' then that's your choice.

    I can tell you now that if you tip up for an interview for a job in my company and that you wear a big black sack then it won't be a positive. I will (because I am human) judge you for this a little, but the questions that follow are the most important. I would bet very heavily that there is no woman alive that is happy being wrapped up in the way that Islam does things and can at the same time answer a pretty basic question well.

    I make no judgement as to who might be wrong in these things - but someone is.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358
    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
    It is at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    Some are fine with it, some say no.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    TudorRose said:

    I'm puzzled as to why Welsh Labour should be amongst the most vociferous opponents of Corbyn's suicide note. If anywhere in the UK was going to support renationalisation and a redistributive agenda I'd have thought Wales would have been near the top.

    They might be afraid that the nationalised entities would be controlled from London. But also remember that renationalisation might bring the future of Port Talbot steelworks into question again.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,285

    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    I think I wolf whistled at one of these ladies in Covent Garden... turns out she was a terrorist!

    https://twitter.com/bbcdomc/status/862661516839051265

    Is the one on the left a snooker referee?
    Doing the Len Ganley stance....
    Rigid as a Teddy Bear...
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    UKIP arent standing in aberconwy or clwyd west which are cast iron Con Holds anyway. or arfon. but they are standing in Ynys Mon which is much closer.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
    It is at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    Some are fine with it, some say no.
    If a jury member does wear the full face covering, is there a check on entering the court that it's the same person it was before?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,358
    AnneJGP said:

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
    It is at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    Some are fine with it, some say no.
    If a jury member does wear the full face covering, is there a check on entering the court that it's the same person it was before?
    I believe so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637

    UKIP arent standing in aberconwy or clwyd west which are cast iron Con Holds anyway. or arfon. but they are standing in Ynys Mon which is much closer.

    Whats the sauce for all this info ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530
    edited May 2017

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
    It is at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    Some are fine with it, some say no.
    Would you agree that only one of the three women depicted in the drawing above is correctly dressed to appear on a courtroom in a criminal case?

    Because as I understand it that is the rule here in the sandpit, for criminal (as opposed to family/sharia) cases.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,637
    Some bets can look like certain winners at short odds, but they're actually not.

    UKIP to win A seat I reckon is amongst those.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,145

    AnneJGP said:

    TudorRose said:

    RobD said:

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Apart from when something such as identity is critical to the situation.
    My view is if you're going to be the defendant in a trial, and want to wear the burqa or a niqab, then you should expect the jury to draw a negative conclusion from that.
    What if members of the jury are wearing a burqa/niqab? Are they allowed to?
    It is at the discretion of Hizzoner.

    Some are fine with it, some say no.
    If a jury member does wear the full face covering, is there a check on entering the court that it's the same person it was before?
    I believe so.
    Interesting, many thanks.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP arent standing in aberconwy or clwyd west which are cast iron Con Holds anyway. or arfon. but they are standing in Ynys Mon which is much closer.

    Whats the sauce for all this info ?
    googling and finding local newspaper pages. ukip standing in all 3 sunderland seats
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    @brtnelexben on twitter seems quite good for who is standing or not

    https://twitter.com/brtnelexben/status/862711673462943745
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    devon:

    www.devonlive.com/devon-general-election-candidates-2017/story...detail/story.html
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    no ukip in exeter
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,894
    Re Burkhas and the like, it's very simple: would a man be allowed to wear a balaclava in this circumstance? If he would, then it's fine. If not, then it isn't.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    isam said:

    @brtnelexben on twitter seems quite good for who is standing or not

    https://twitter.com/brtnelexben/status/862711673462943745

    excellent, thanks
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,856
    Harris poll for the French parliamentary elections:

    LREM 29%, +3 / 7 May
    FN 20%, -2
    LR-UDI 20%, -2
    FI 14%, +1
    PS-PRG 7%, -1
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP arent standing in aberconwy or clwyd west which are cast iron Con Holds anyway. or arfon. but they are standing in Ynys Mon which is much closer.

    Whats the sauce for all this info ?
    "sauce"...why, "HP" of course! :smile:

    (Now, where did I leave my coat?)
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483

    JohnLoony said:

    There are 13 candidates in Maidenhead, 10 in Islington North, 4 in Westmoreland & Lonsdale, 4 in Buckingham.

    Where do you get your information about candidates?
    Look on the local council website for the constituency you're interested in.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257

    no ukip in exeter

    No UKIP in Plymouth.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,530
    edited May 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    Re Burkhas and the like, it's very simple: would a man be allowed to wear a balaclava in this circumstance? If he would, then it's fine. If not, then it isn't.

    Yes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    UKIP arent standing in aberconwy or clwyd west which are cast iron Con Holds anyway. or arfon. but they are standing in Ynys Mon which is much closer.

    Whats the sauce for all this info ?
    Deleted...beaten to it!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2017
    UKIP aren't standing in...

    Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane

    @election_data on twitter
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039

    Omnium said:

    I think this is a hard GE to bet on really. There have been some obvious misprices early on, and I hope that I've made a few good bets because of that. However trying to create a bet I really like is pretty tough. I backed Tories most seats at 1.13 down to 1.05, but (quite wrongly) it becomes tough to really commit to such a bet.

    I find myself with a portfolio of bets that generally require a Tory victory, and that's all good. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs not making any gains, but also Twickenham is a big bet for me. Quite why anyone thinks Vince should be 66% chance to win escapes me. I also have a substantial interest in the LDs doing poorly. The things that I should be able to really position myself on - Corbyn being a fruitcake for example I can't.

    Yes, it seems harder than 2015 so far and only 4 weeks are left.
    Some have been very good value, like Lib.Dems <27 seats @ 1.83, i.e. before the mid-band plunged to 15.5.

    I still have a short list - actually, quite a long list - of constituency odds to assess & maybe bet on. Mostly the kind where quoted odds are 1.2-1.3 but I think they're really 1.02-1.05, or the odds are 2.0 and should be 1.4 ... that kind of thing. I think anything much longer has gone. I tend to agree on Twickenham.

    Against that, so far there've been no Fallon attacks for 'these disgraceful proposals for unilateral disarmament'. There were more attacks on Foot in 1983 than there've been on Corbyn. </p>
    Foot vs Corbyn - I'd vote Foot without a second thought (apologies for the rhyme). Even as a Tory voter I regard Mr Foot in high esteem. He'd have demeaned himself and voted Corbyn now. Corbyn though is not of our world, he has no comprehension of what it means to work for a living, he has no idea about how our economy works.
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    I see the BBC is going big on Labour abolishing tuition fees but the really scary thing about this manifesto is it should be called the UNITE Manifesto.
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    Today's manifesto 'launch' hasn't changed the odds over at Hill's one jot. The Tories are still a mind boggling 1/33 to achieve a majoirty, and 1/100 to get the most seats. Is there any precedent for these kinds of numbers?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    edited May 2017
    Talking head on SkyNews just said public ownership was good because it prevents money being wasted on shareholder payments....

    I give up.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Asking for a friend:

    Isn't it the Will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited May 2017
    isam said:

    UKIP aren't standing in...

    Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane

    @election_data on twitter

    Isn’t Don Valley where Tissue_Price is standing for the blue team? Good news if so I suspect.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    isam said:

    UKIP aren't standing in...

    Don Valley, Stoke North, Stoke Central, Doncaster Central, Brum Northfield, Birmingham Erdington. Batley and Spen, Wentworth and Deane

    @election_data on twitter

    Good news for Aaron!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    No Kippers in Wakefield or Luton North
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,384
    isam said:

    No Kippers in Wakefield or Luton North

    Are they giving up so easily?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    Mr. Eagles, only in the most exceptional cases (ie if someone has terrible burns and has bandaging) should faces be permitted to be covered.

    Mr. Llama, indeed, ground floors are often modern (and they buggered the entrance to the Victoria Quarter by replacing black iron and gold lettering with white steel and rubbish glass), but first floors and higher often look rather nice.

    And the Royal Armouries is super, of course.

    Surely in a free, tolerant, and liberal society we shouldn't tell people what they can and cannot wear (unless it is likely to incite, such as wearing a t shirt saying 'Kill all muslims/jews' that sort of stuff.
    Asking for a friend:

    Isn't it the Will of Allah (SWT) that we are all born stark, raving naked?
    Always difficult searching twitter for SouthWestTrains!!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    Gareth Snell, a latter day Oswald O'Brien?

    Hard to believe the Tories would not have given him at the least a severe fright if they hadn't been distracted by Copeland.
This discussion has been closed.