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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe I’m reading GE2017 wrongly but this must be the worst be

SystemSystem Posts: 12,261
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe I’m reading GE2017 wrongly but this must be the worst bet placed so far…

PaddyPower shop in London has taken a bet of £330 at 500/1 that UKIP will win most seats

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    1st
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    2nd - like the person placing that bet!
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    Hope it's not their life savings!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,289
    edited May 2017
    Fourth

    Not another bet from Mr Wollygog's 15-year old?
  • JasonJason Posts: 1,614
    edited May 2017
    It might as well be a million to one.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Not for Paddy Power it isn't.
  • EssexmanEssexman Posts: 19
    UKIP are probably not standing in many seats.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Don't they accept bets (or at least post odds) for fictional people to be pope? Other than that, surely a contender for top 10 worst ever political bets?
    MarqueeMark said:

    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?

    I'll say around 200.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Bizarre bet. Just bizarre
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    edited May 2017
    To be fair UKIP and the Tories are pretty inidistinguishable these days. Perhaps the bettor mixed them up
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,886
    Leicester City?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    Paddy power publicity stunt?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Hmm I wonder what Mike K is up to these days? Not seen him here for a while....
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    fpt;
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Dadge said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Mike Smithson‏ @MSmithsonPB 2m2 minutes ago
    More
    PaddyPower shop in London has taken a bet of £330 at 500/1 that UKIP will win most seats


    Where is MikeL these days?

    What is betting shops' policy in these instances? Do they just take the bet, or is there any code of honour that states they warn the punter that it's a losing bet?
    I imagine they take the money and try to keep a straight face.
    The cashier is unlikely to have much of a clue about that bet.

    All they'll be thinking is it's a big bet at long odds which has to go through head office and written down very carefully.

    The politics trader at head office, however...
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    First! But only after a Labour party inspired redraft.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    If bookies can claim palpable errors, I reckon this punter might also be able to argue that he made a palpable error.
  • DearPBDearPB Posts: 439
    MarqueeMark said:

    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?

    I don't understand the rationale of not fielding candidates everywhere - it really does signal the end of the party (and who'll clear up all those ashtrays; at least we know Nigel will walk around downing all the dregs from the glasses.)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    The thing is, myself and a few others placed the same bet back in 2015.

    500-1 was a very good for this bet back then.

    Personally my longest bet of this election is Tory Seats 475+ (Con maj 300+) at 100-1.

    But with what we now know this bet is beyond awful.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Probably placed by a LibDem who got a bit confused by his leader saying that a vote for the Tories is a vote for UKIP:

    http://www.zoeoconnell.co.uk/toryukip-electoral-pact-tim-farron-responds/
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    FPT
    Freggles said:

    On topic, is this Labour uniting around Corbyn more, like the Republicans did for Trump?

    Or more like Custer's last stand?

    [Interesting fact: one of the Native American chiefs at Little Bighorn was actually called Lame White Man, which is surely one of the earliest recorded instances of sledging]
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Nutters for Nuttall
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    He must have had a dream about it so be that optimistic about UKIPs chances!
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    He wanted to place £500 but PP would only let him have £330?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    DearPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?

    I don't understand the rationale of not fielding candidates everywhere - it really does signal the end of the party
    It does, but it might not even be by choice, exactly - they may have struggled to find candidates, and they might also not have the funds to waste on 500 lost deposits?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    The true price for most seats must be around 1-200 or so for the Tories.

    500-1 would probably be OK for Labour still.
  • walterwwalterw Posts: 71
    IOS ?
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    The only way this bet makes sense is if there's a special, political version of Sale of Century in the works. God, I feel old.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    edited May 2017
    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    The Today programme was very interesting this morning. Nick Robinson had a curry and political chat with a group of. White working class in Yorkshire. It was fascinating in as much as they were probably not that politically engaged and when asked about the Tory party slogan no-one could name it - Nick Robinson was almost incredulous.

    Messages like the above are trying to engage with that group and not people who know about purdah.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    OldKingCole said:

    Leicester City?

    That was at least possible.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    Which just goes to show that the more you get into gambling, the more you feel like being the one setting the odds and taking the bets. Too much mug money...

    There was a great story of a gambler (I think it was Jimmy The Greek, but I couldn't find a reference to it) who became so famous that people would want to have side bets with him, just so that they could say they'd had a bet with the big man. Towards the end of his life, this was making more money than his gambling...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Nemtynakht said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    The Today programme was very interesting this morning. Nick Robinson had a curry and political chat with a group of. White working class in Yorkshire. It was fascinating in as much as they were probably not that politically engaged and when asked about the Tory party slogan no-one could name it - Nick Robinson was almost incredulous.

    Messages like the above are trying to engage with that group and not people who know about purdah.
    All rushing out for postal votes for Corbyn I take it :) ?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Is this the same guy who's 'son' bet on Le Pen?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    It wasn't Diane Abbott was it? You know how good she is with numbers
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Pulpstar said:

    The thing is, myself and a few others placed the same bet back in 2015.

    500-1 was a very good for this bet back then.

    Personally my longest bet of this election is Tory Seats 475+ (Con maj 300+) at 100-1.

    But with what we now know this bet is beyond awful.

    I think that it is more than five times more likely than the UKIP abet though.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    kle4 said:

    DearPB said:

    MarqueeMark said:

    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?

    I don't understand the rationale of not fielding candidates everywhere - it really does signal the end of the party
    It does, but it might not even be by choice, exactly - they may have struggled to find candidates, and they might also not have the funds to waste on 500 lost deposits?
    And if they can show that they have pulled or put up candidates tactically, then there is a hope of continuing the narrative that they are in the background, still a player, pulling the strings to make the inevitable landslide happen and ensure a hard Brexit.

    It's a theory I suppose...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    logical_song said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Leicester City?

    That was at least possible.
    This bet is actually worse than backing Coventry City to win the Premier League by 2025, which is amazing when you think about it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Purdah eh?

    More Islamification of the UK.

    Stop Shakira Law now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Not for Paddy Power it isn't.

    It's the best bet of the election if you're Paddy Power!
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Pulpstar said:

    Nemtynakht said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    The Today programme was very interesting this morning. Nick Robinson had a curry and political chat with a group of. White working class in Yorkshire. It was fascinating in as much as they were probably not that politically engaged and when asked about the Tory party slogan no-one could name it - Nick Robinson was almost incredulous.

    Messages like the above are trying to engage with that group and not people who know about purdah.
    All rushing out for postal votes for Corbyn I take it :) ?
    I used to live in Yorkshire and I had forgotten how perplexing the locals were! There seems to be a local phrase 'leaving brexit' to mean leaving the EU - it was used by a factory worker questioning the PM and in a pre recorded interview so not linked.

    it was difficult to get an idea of the number of people in the group interview, but I would say that Perhaps Corbyn is more popular with some women, but not liked in general.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    I presume it was for this GE, and not the next?

    EV of near as damn it -100% for this GE, maybe only -75% for the next GE.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    This Labour 'emergency cap' of £1000 per year for energy - it's a gift to billionaires with large estates isn't it?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paddy power publicity stunt?

    is my guess.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Purdah eh?

    More Islamification of the UK.

    Stop Shakira Law now.

    Simple Minds legislation?
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    TOPPING said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paddy power publicity stunt?

    is my guess.
    That's a more sensible explanation than someone actually thinking it's a good bet. Another is money laundering.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Purdah eh?

    More Islamification of the UK.

    Stop Shakira Law now.

    Well the hips don't lie..
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Purdah eh?

    More Islamification of the UK.

    Stop Shakira Law now.

    Was that a bill Yvette Cooper brought in? HIPs don't lie?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Essexit said:

    TOPPING said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Paddy power publicity stunt?

    is my guess.
    That's a more sensible explanation than someone actually thinking it's a good bet. Another is money laundering.
    Yeah but laundering money you need to get it out clean the other side, that's just throwing money away. Unless of course incentives were gained by placing it..........
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Bizarre

    The best bet has to be the PBer (Pulp ?) who has 8/1 on Alison McGovern (Lab) in Wirral South. Currently 5/6
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    I missed out on the speculation this morning and last night on the leak. Has it come from Corbyn's side? It is certainly a gift to the Tories as they can get all items costed, and even if things don't go in the manifesto they can call them further commitments. I don't know if Corbyns side released ahead of the meetings to negotiate. I guess we'll get to see how good a negotiator Corbyn is now
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Omnium said:

    This Labour 'emergency cap' of £1000 per year for energy - it's a gift to billionaires with large estates isn't it?

    The IFS paper says that the biggest beneficiaries of the Higher Education proposals will be those graduates earning on average more than £100,000/year over their lifetime. I'm sure that's not what Lab had in mind.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,988
    edited May 2017
    logical_song said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Leicester City?

    That was at least possible.
    It's possible for the UKIP bet to come in. The result could, theoretically, be something like:

    UKIP 200
    Con 180
    Lab 170
    SNP 55
    LD 27
    NI 18

    That's not saying it's likely to happen but it is at least possible as long as UKIP stand at least 150 candidates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    david_herdson said:

    logical_song said:

    OldKingCole said:

    Leicester City?

    That was at least possible.
    It's possible for the UKIP bet to come in. The result could, theoretically, be something like:

    UKIP 200
    Con 180
    Lab 170
    SNP 55
    LD 27
    NI 18

    That's not saying it's likely to happen but it is at least possible as long as UKIP stand at least 150 candidates.
    Is the window still open for nominations ?

    Are UKIP standing 200 :) ?!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    PaulM said:

    Bizarre

    The best bet has to be the PBer (Pulp ?) who has 8/1 on Alison McGovern (Lab) in Wirral South. Currently 5/6

    Sadly only for buttons :(
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    Jeremy Corbyn
    image

    Comical Ali
    image
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    Animal_pb said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Purdah eh?

    More Islamification of the UK.

    Stop Shakira Law now.

    Was that a bill Yvette Cooper brought in? HIPs don't lie?
    Just to feel smug and superior, I occasionally visit various Britain First, EDL, and UKIP sites to check for stupidity and silly comments.

    One of the EDLers called it Shakira law instead of Sharia law, and it has stuck in my head forever.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

    Purdah is awesome. "Sorry can't do that... Purdah"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

    Purdah is awesome. "Sorry can't do that... Purdah"
    I'm not a fan personally, if only because I am endlessly asked 'Can we do this/that during purdah?'
  • DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    MarqueeMark said:

    We will soon know how few candidates UKIP is fielding. Under 100?

    I'm a member of UKIP and secretary of my branch.
    There are supposed to be around 55 candidates standing in Greater London alone, nominations closed at 4pm today, one or two might back out I suppose.
    For tactical reasons we are standing aside where the existing MP or a close contender is a confirmed Brexiteer, so for example we're not standing against Kate Hoey in Vauxhall and we are giving the Tories a clear run against the Lib/Dems in the London borough of Sutton.
    I don't know what's going on in the other regions of the country.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    GOOD NEWS FOR LABOUR KLAXON!

    They are going to have much more room to sit down on the green benches.
    The Tory side however is going to be rampacked
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    Pulpstar said:

    PaulM said:

    Bizarre

    The best bet has to be the PBer (Pulp ?) who has 8/1 on Alison McGovern (Lab) in Wirral South. Currently 5/6

    Sadly only for buttons :(
    Could turn into a Pumpkin at midnight.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,941
    Disraeli said:

    Jeremy Corbyn
    image

    Comical Ali
    image

    They all do that.
    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=theresa+may&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiSjK2Jm-jTAhXBA8AKHX4FDJwQ_AUIBygC&biw=1920&bih=974#imgrc=FFx3S1as8T_FhM:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    There's some real money buying opportunities at Ladbrokes, Jeremy Hunt offering 5% return in a month.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

    Purdah is awesome. "Sorry can't do that... Purdah"
    I'm not a fan personally, if only because I am endlessly asked 'Can we do this/that during purdah?'
    Are you my communications lead at work!?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Nemtynakht said:

    I missed out on the speculation this morning and last night on the leak. Has it come from Corbyn's side?

    There seems no consensus. I'm of the view it did come from his side. His opponents are gutless, his own people seem to love the plans, and the hoped for news cycle about corrupt Tories didn't emerge, so get it out there to test how it plays.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

    Purdah is awesome. "Sorry can't do that... Purdah"
    I'm not a fan personally, if only because I am endlessly asked 'Can we do this/that during purdah?'
    Are you my communications lead at work!?
    Not likely - I am not high enough to be a 'lead' anything, but its surprising who people will ask a question of sometimes, and I feel for those communications guys and gals at such times (except when the questions come from them, naturally).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    UKIP running a candidate against Jeremy Hunt.

    Probably helps him in all honesty.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    numbers were never his strong point....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
    Can you put enough money on Jezza PM after the election to get him back to around 10-1 or so ?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    The BBC have a video online of Corbyn's vehicle running over a cameraman;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39886810/moment-bbc-cameraman-injured-by-corbyn-car
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
    Can you put enough money on Jezza PM after the election to get him back to around 10-1 or so ?
    No TMICIPM

    I am on Tories LT 399.5 @Evs

    what are my chances?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
    Back Labour most seats, some of that is my money

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    Surely if it becomes clear that UKIP aren't fielding enough candidates to win a majority, then it's actually impossible for that outcome and the bookie should refund? (But not in this specific case, as the bet was made before nominations closed)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    bigjohnowls said:

    Pulpstar said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
    Can you put enough money on Jezza PM after the election to get him back to around 10-1 or so ?
    No TMICIPM

    I am on Tories LT 399.5 @Evs

    what are my chances?
    At a rough guess, around Evens xD
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    Sandpit said:

    Surely if it becomes clear that UKIP aren't fielding enough candidates to win a majority, then it's actually impossible for that outcome and the bookie should refund? (But not in this specific case, as the bet was made before nominations closed)

    It'll still be mathematically possible even if UKIP run around 80 candidates, providing there are enough independents/NHA/Yorkshire First etc etc.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    Freggles said:

    kle4 said:

    notme said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    No more NHS Stats till after election apparently

    Hugh Pym‏Verified account
    @BBCHughPym

    Follow
    More
    Lab's Jon Ashworth: postponement of NHS stats till after polling day "a cover-up" - writing "to insist this data is released as planned"

    It's almost there was a thing called 'purdah' and the release of politically sensitive statistics are suspended. But labour know that. They are relying ottn people like you who don't.
    Most people then.

    Purdah is awesome. "Sorry can't do that... Purdah"
    I'm not a fan personally, if only because I am endlessly asked 'Can we do this/that during purdah?'
    Are you my communications lead at work!?
    Not likely - I am not high enough to be a 'lead' anything, but its surprising who people will ask a question of sometimes, and I feel for those communications guys and gals at such times (except when the questions come from them, naturally).
    I feel for people in communications and in design because EVERYONE thinks they know best on those topics even though it's quite subjective. Except when they do a rubbish job and I know best.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    https://twitter.com/KateEMcCann/status/862700789571223552
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    chestnut said:

    The BBC have a video online of Corbyn's vehicle running over a cameraman;

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-39886810/moment-bbc-cameraman-injured-by-corbyn-car

    Laura K there helping out one of her team too.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Question, does PP - or any other bookie but for obvious reasons they are the most likely - actually trade on BF as well?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    edited May 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Am there what would you like me to do now?
    Back Labour most seats, some of that is my money

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics
    No thanks all the same for the offer.

    Whats your spread exposure on Tory seats?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Question, does PP - or any other bookie but for obvious reasons they are the most likely - actually trade on BF as well?
    Pass, that's a question for the bookies.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    So what I really logged in this evening to learn was the result of the "FirstGate" scandal of this morning. JackW had his beady eye on the goings on and reported them, and scandalously Mr RCS was seemingly questioned as to his honor. TSE, of all people, being an apparent victim!

    So, what of "FirstGate"?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all – has the full list of GE2017 candidates been published yet? TA.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,527
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    They can win four and a half grand on a Labour majority, for only a hundred quid.

    Yesterday it was six and a half grand for a hundred quid, three more days of this and they'll have no chance of making money at all!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,216
    Presumably when they don't have candidates for most seats that is a confirmed loss.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    this tipster perhaps?

    https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/862689855398187008

    Really stupid, especially when other bookies are offering better odds.
    They need to get onto Betfair.
    I've been doing my best to get the Corbynites onto Betfair.
    Question, does PP - or any other bookie but for obvious reasons they are the most likely - actually trade on BF as well?
    Pass, that's a question for the bookies.
    I don't know, but I'm pretty sure that all UK bookmakers will use Betfair when it suits them. PP and Betfair are now one and the same in case you didn't know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    DavidL said:

    Presumably when they don't have candidates for most seats that is a confirmed loss.

    SNP 59, Lib Dems 100, Con 100, Labour 100, NI 18, Plaid 40, Independents & other odds and sods total 100, UKIP 133.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,963
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Surely if it becomes clear that UKIP aren't fielding enough candidates to win a majority, then it's actually impossible for that outcome and the bookie should refund? (But not in this specific case, as the bet was made before nominations closed)

    It'll still be mathematically possible even if UKIP run around 80 candidates, providing there are enough independents/NHA/Yorkshire First etc etc.
    It's mathematically possible if they run 2 candidates, both of them win, other parties win 1 seat tops each and all other seats are won by independents. Arguably if UKIP had 1 MP and the other 649 were independents they'd be the largest 'party'.

    I'm just being daft now.
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't talk to me about sophistication
    I've BEEN to Leeds

    No offence :)
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Ex Guido: 'Labour in chaos as its 1970s manifesto leaks.'
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. M, thou art a Loinophobe!

    Leeds is a splendid place. Not as nice as York, obviously.

    On that note, it'll be interesting to see if the York QT audience is as delightfully brutal as the Leeds one was in 2015.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Seems UKIP are standing about 400 candidates.. still don't fancy the 500/1 bet though
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,348
    PaulM said:

    Freggles said:

    TSE klaxon
    They are opening a Popworld bar in Leeds.

    Don't talk to me about sophistication
    I've BEEN to Leeds

    No offence :)
    I worked in Leeds for six years.

    I much preferred to live over sixty miles away in rural North Yorkshire, when the days I could do a 130 mile round trip to work each day.
This discussion has been closed.