politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The poll finding that sums up GE2017 & why it’ll be a CON land
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In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
I live there. "Feels" Lab hold - just. Libs did ok in the locals, but Welsh Labour pushing Carwyn here. It's very studenty (do they vote here?)/university types, in the inner part, less so further out, voted over 70% Remain I believe. As near as Wales gets to Guardianista in some parts. Jo Stevens (sitting MP) sat on Corbyn's front bench though, so she'll have to confront that on some doorsteps (including mine if she turns up). Must be quite a few Tories voting for Libs tactically. Close (possibly very close indeed) but my finger tips tell me a narrow squeaker of a hold similar to the Assembly election last year (where the same Lib stood). One other thing I guess for the Libs is all resources for miles around will be here, they nothing else this side of the bridge or within an hour to go for.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
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A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
, Except if you are Mrs HamiltonCasino_Royale said:
It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
Can't ask for more than a loyal and loving spouse.MikeSmithson said:
, Except if you are Mrs HamiltonCasino_Royale said:
It's very hard to find something to like about Neil Hamilton.TheScreamingEagles said:
What I'd like to say about Neil Hamilton is mostly unprintable.Pulpstar said:
I can't work out who that favours, I assume it'll mean UkIP might put in an effort there though he did lose Tatton as a Tory !kle4 said:
I see Neil Hamilton is contesting that seat.AlastairMeeks said:Plaid Cymru once again look set to be bystanders at this election. They might get lucky and take Ynys Mon, though that looks far from a done deal on these figures - Labour are only marginally down on their 2015 numbers and Plaid Cymru are also going backwards. They might also note that Carmarthen East & Dinefwr voted Leave and the Conservatives might not be a million miles away from taking this seat off them on these numbers.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-39755177
Probably helps Plaid unfortunately.
He won't miss an opportunity to screw over his former party.0 -
There isn't much substance, just a bunch of assertions without evidence.Bromptonaut said:
No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.RobD said:
From a very neutral source.Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
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True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.0 -
Obviously the elite, such as it exists as it is not a particularly helpful label, has plenty who do think that. The elite was split on the issue in a way that does not generally appear to be the case elsewhere, but the EU had and has plenty of support from the upper tiers, and since few appear to be arch federalists, the rest would presumably be because they think we need it (or like TMay, believe we would be better off with it). Striking an optimistic tone since doesn't mean much.williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
Known by history as a hated appeaser within a few years ?RobD said:
Baldwin mark 2?peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 650
And I thought I was harsh on Mrs May.0 -
Except that the elite weren't claiming that Britain could afford to leave during the referendum, quite the opposite in fact.williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.0 -
I've called Betfair and the lady on the phone assured me it does. I've asked her to send me an e-mail to confirm this.Peter_the_Punter said:
Yes, I stand corrected, but the point still holds. If NI is not specifically mentioned in the wording, the default assumption would be that it is excluded.TheScreamingEagles said:
Err no, we're The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.Peter_the_Punter said:
Whoa, steady. That needs checking. We are the UK and NI, The wording you quote implies the exclusion of NI, which I have to say is standard in most polls and punts.Pulpstar said:
Of course it does.peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
What percentage of the registered vote will the named party receive in the UK as a whole, at the next UK general election?
Not saying I know the answer, but be careful.
Not the UK and NI
Anyway checking never hurts and would put the matter beyond doubt.
As the UK is mentioned in the rules, and we are the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland this is my hunch anyway.
I've also laid some 50+%, I don't think it should be 3-1 - or if it wins alot of my other bets will come in anyway. Possibly 300+ majority.0 -
If the events this month are anything to go by, I don't think we have anything to worry about in terms of May appeasing the EU.TheScreamingEagles said:
Known by history as a hated appeaser within a few years ?RobD said:
Baldwin mark 2?peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 650
And I thought I was harsh on Mrs May.
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Not really. The article could be headed "Too Poor, Too Small, Too Thick."Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism0 -
LOL. His profile has changed a bit since yesterday!Pong said:0 -
Yes. Mr Cameron's government sent a booklet to every household arguing exactly that.williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
They were split. People like Mervyn King or Nigel Lawson, who certainly count as the elite, were very blasé about it and thought leaving would be a doddle.RobD said:
Except that the elite weren't claiming that Britain could afford to leave during the referendum, quite the opposite in fact.williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.
Even people like Cameron gave the impression they thought it was a balanced argument rather than a firm conviction about the national interest.0 -
Interesting that the two examples were noted has-beens. Anyway, that article said 'much of the British elite', which is clearly not true.williamglenn said:
They were split. People like Mervyn King or Nigel Lawson, who certainly count as the elite, were very blasé about it and thought leaving would be a doddle.RobD said:
Except that the elite weren't claiming that Britain could afford to leave during the referendum, quite the opposite in fact.williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.
Even people like Cameron gave the impression they thought it was a balanced argument rather than a firm conviction about the national interest.0 -
2% is the noise level of surveys thats misheard or deliberately sabotaging the answers.TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
I can see the Conservatives perhaps attaining a majority of all the votes cast in England, but an absolute majority for the whole of the UK sounds vanishingly unlikely. In order to do that they'd surely have to poll something like 52-53% in England and strongly outperform current expectations in Scotland and Wales, or match expectations outside of England and poll at or above 55% in it. Now, 55% was the combined vote share won by both the Conservatives and Ukip in England in 2015, and whatever happens with the latter they should still attract meaningful numbers of votes in at least some of the seats they choose to contest, and you're not going to get 100% of the Ukip vote moving en masse to the Tories in those seats that Ukip fails to field a candidate in.Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
The Tories quite simply have almost no chance of winning an absolute majority of all votes cast: moreover, even if you assume that they will get to 50%, you also need a great chunk of the Labour vote to peel off to the Lib Dems in order for the Tories to get above 450 seats. Running a result of something like Con 50, Lab 28, LD 10 (plus a Con 32, SNP 43 split in Scotland) through Electoral Calculus gets you to a result similar to the 1997 Blair landslide only in reverse, and with the third party share breaking mostly for the SNP rather than the Lib Dems.
Now, I do appreciate that UNS is a blunt instrument, and that the Conservatives are likely to outperform it if Labour stacks up as many or more votes in ultra-safe urban areas, and suffers a disproportionate swing against it elsewhere. But even so, talk of a Conservative total significantly in excess of 400 or a Labour total significantly below 150 is for the birds. Certainty is a big deal for me, but I'm as close to being sure of this as I reasonably can be.0 -
Seen The One Show with T and P May. A lot of cliched answers but then they were cliched questions - they seemed like a pleasant, normal couple.0
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Has to be said there isn't much of it in that article. For example, it makes the broad-brush claim that the British skilfully used their US links to maximise their influence, but the only concrete example provided in support of that is some rather general comments on eastern expansion. It talks about British productivity being lower than French without providing any statistical basis to back that up. It is similarly broad brush when it comes to talking about industries dependent on a pan-European supply chain. OK, we all know he's talking about the car manufacturing industry, but spelling out how dependent car assemblage is by providing the relavent figures on the single market should be pretty basic stuff for anyone writing an essay pitched above GCSE level.Bromptonaut said:
No, that won't do. Try responding to the substance.RobD said:
From a very neutral source.Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
His comments on the past also reveal a remarkable level of special pleading. Delineating the City as a 'relative backwater' prior to 1973 isn't terribly convincing - relative to whom? New York? Yes, agreed. Any other city in Europe? Nonsensical. While his remarks on the Commonwealth may hold true in Africa and parts of Asia - the parts that suffered worst under British rule and were often most ineptly governed by third-rate civil servants sent from London to get them out of the way - I'm dubious about how far it can be said to apply to large other areas, for example, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, even the Carribean.
His remarks on the military situation meanwhile are simply laughable. France has a wholly different outlook as it is considered even following its decision to resume a part in NATO's military command as a half-hearted ally by the Americans, while it is through NATO that Britain actually uses its forces. On paper, these are smaller than the French equivalent, but they have a much greater reach - for example, France has five medium sized jets of various types for long distance haulage, one of which is a tanker, while Britain has eight Globemaster. The disparity is so great that when the French intervened in Mali a while back we actually had to lend them two C17s to do the transport work!
So I think this was a poor article from a biased source by someone so shocked and embittered by his failure that he's refusing to confront the reasons for it and is instead constructing a comforting narrative of how it was those bloody elites that stole it all. It reminds me very much of the letters of Lord Robert Cecil, Cecil of Chelwood, as the League of Nations showed how utterly ineffectual it had become by the late 1930s.0 -
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This bit tells me something I didn't know:williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.
"The country’s biggest comparative advantage is in financial services and that is to a large extent because London has successfully become Europe’s dominant financial centre; the City of London was a relative backwater prior to Britain joining the EU. "
Edited to sort out italics0 -
What madness - SNP holding 47? Pfft!peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 650
And as for LibDems with 15....0 -
I suspect the one phrase that they used that will do the rounds is 'boy-jobs' and 'girl-jobs'; but as you say they just seemed quite normal and a bit 'stage-struck' as if they wondered what on earth they were doing on the telly.kle4 said:Seen The One Show with T and P May. A lot of cliched answers but then they were cliched questions - they seemed like a pleasant, normal couple.
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Tories would have been happy to reduce them that far at the start of the campaign.MarqueeMark said:
What madness - SNP holding 47? Pfft!peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 6500 -
Kudos to Theresa May for accepting a challenging interview. They don't come harder than the One Show.0
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Virtually all academics, most economists, most business leaders, the leaders of all main parties other than UKIP, most of the cabinet and governing party, and the great and the good in general were all against Brexit. Leave had Gove, BoJo and Farage.RobD said:Interesting that the two examples were noted has-beens. Anyway, that article said 'much of the British elite', which is clearly not true.
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Maybe, although even for a partisan it'd be hard to spin as anything other than a light hearted comment I think - she is PM, which is for the most part a 'boy-job' traditionally after all.TudorRose said:
I suspect the one phrase that they used that will do the rounds is 'boy-jobs' and 'girl-jobs';.kle4 said:Seen The One Show with T and P May. A lot of cliched answers but then they were cliched questions - they seemed like a pleasant, normal couple.
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Playing with Baxter, Con 55%, Lab 14%, LD 15% will do it.Paristonda said:I have 2 pounds on Tories over 500 seats. Obviously nearly impossible, it's an insurance in case all assumptions are wrong and this turns out to be 2015 on steroids, but can anyone think of a plausible route for it to happen? It would probably need tories over 50% of vote, Labour losing a bunch of votes to LDs due to anti-Corbyn factor, but these votes largely proving useless and letting Tories through the middle. Would also need strong anti-SNP tactical voting in Scotland, and UKIP to stand down in almost all tory targets. I think the highest seat total ever was the 1931 election, where the tories won 470, so in theory it's not inconceivable...
In reality, I don't think Lab would actually have to go that low, because as 14%, their vote would be very inefficiently concentrated in the inner cities.0 -
Handbagging the EU is certainly a girl-job.kle4 said:
Maybe, although even for a partisan it'd be hard to spin as anything other than a light hearted comment I think - she is PM, which is for the most part a 'boy-job' traditionally after all.TudorRose said:
I suspect the one phrase that they used that will do the rounds is 'boy-jobs' and 'girl-jobs';.kle4 said:Seen The One Show with T and P May. A lot of cliched answers but then they were cliched questions - they seemed like a pleasant, normal couple.
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We haven't left yet.RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
People voted for Brexit for many reasons. One of the major factors for me was the way that the cultists who fanatically believe in "ever closer union" choose to ignore democracy whenever it suits them. This habit is dangerous.williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.
It all depends on your own political philosophy, I suppose. Do you like a technocratic, managerial model which keeps the people at arms length, or do you believe in a warts-and-all model of democracy which gives ultimate power to the nasty proles.
I'm a prole, so I choose democracy.0 -
Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8620155691674337280 -
Yeah, that wasn't the prediction.Bromptonaut said:
We haven't left yet.RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"0 -
One thing I noticed with 365s over/under midpoints for the GB parties seats was that they summed to 618 when there are 632 (I think) GB seats in total. So there is more likely to be value buying Cons than selling Lab. And vice versa. Haven't checked the markets in last couple of hours tho.peter_from_putney said:
I know of a highly respected PB.com bettor, not currently located within these shores, so I can talk about him freely, who has bet on Labour winning fewer than 100 seats which would mean the result looking something like this perhaps:peter_from_putney said:
But surely N.I. doesn't count in the % share of the vote in the various betting markets?Pulpstar said:If the Tories get over 50%, I think they'll be alot nearer 500 seats than 400, and quite possibly over.
50% is staggeringly hard when you factor in Northern Ireland and to a lesser degree, Scotland.
Tory .................470
Labour ...............95
LibDem ..............15
SNP ....................47
N.I. ................... 18
Plaid ................... 4
Greens .......... ..... 1
UKIP .................... 0
Total ............... 6500 -
I bet it was a man.isam said:Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8620155691674337280 -
Brexit means Brexit, as the Eurocrat will say to the British PM. It will be an educational experience to get exactly what we voted for.Disraeli said:I'm a prole, so I choose democracy.
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I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.0
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Not in all the polls. Survation has them on 7.4% today on a UK basis - equivalent to 8% in GB.rcs1000 said:
They're up from 8% to 10-11% in the polls, so presumably they've got 25-35% more votes accruing somewhere.Danny565 said:
Like I've been saying, in our canvassing, the LibDem vote melted away completely after the first few days.Pulpstar said:The Lib/Lab and Lab/Lib splits in this welsh poll are spanking news for Corbyn in Cardiff Central.
I just don't know how much of that is down to it being a Lab-Con marginal, and whether it would be different in seats where the Lib Dems have a chance.0 -
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Wow, Con 472AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.
And look at that blue map... just beautiful.0 -
Yikes. 3 is lower than I've seen in any prediction to date (Westmoreland, Orkney and ???). If they go down at this one, they should just call it quits, though I'm still thinking they'll creep into low double figures.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Presumably extreme remainers but after todays performance on Brexit from Corbyn you have to wonder if this can continue.kle4 said:
People disappointed by the Tories and want to punish them.TheScreamingEagles said:
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
All the ranges. Worthless IMOAlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
And the Lab range. How can 108 even be feasible? While he's essentially saying that sub 200 is guaranteed.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
0 -
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
0 -
Well, he at least is not being over-precise in his forecasts!AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Agree. Any seat where Con + (say) 66% of UKIP is more than the winning party is likely to flip.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
Which gives the Cons three LD seats: Southport (38 vs 31), Carshalton (42 vs 35) and North Norfolk (41 vs 39).
If you assume the LDs are tracking three points higher than in 2015 (i.e. UNS) then they just edge North Norfolk. But - given its a Leave constituency - I wouldn't want to bet on it without quite good odds.0 -
Meanwhile, wildly off topic, Her Majesty did something very worthwhile today:
https://twitter.com/fdaoulb/status/8620120966865018880 -
I think that's the point. The future is unwritten. But the boundaries of it must be increasingly secure.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he at least is not being over-precise in his forecasts!AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
A reflection of the fact that we have no idea what percentages the parties will be on. The LDs could be as low as 7% or as high as 14%; etc.paulyork64 said:
All the ranges. Worthless IMOAlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
I accept that. Racist bigotry has never been difficult to find amongst the lower working classesRobD said:
I think UKIP had a far bigger tent than that. Many ex-Labour voters for instancejustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
0 -
Would you have preferred them to switch to Labour? I'm afraid that people purporting to represent Labour have been telling them they don't want their votes.justin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
0 -
Con Gain Dwyfor Meirionnydd Wales 99% PC0
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Is this guy related to John Curtice by any chance.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.
1/100,000,000
1/100,000,000
1/100,000,000
1/100,000,000
0 -
I hope you die or get diabetesjustin124 said:
It does indeed look as if the forces of bigotry and ignorance formerly represented by UKIP - and the BNP - have now switched to the Tories.DavidL said:I remember posting that the key to this election was going to be the 4m who voted UKIP in 2015 as soon as it was announced. At the time I estimated that this might boost Tory support by 2m. It looks as if it just might be a little more than that.
0 -
Con Gain Stoke-on-Trent Central West Midlands 97%0
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The irony of SCON & SLID currently openly begging for tactical votes - then whinging about the Greens move !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/pro-independence-scottish-greens-prop-snp-standing-fewer-10/0 -
Sub-200 is almost guaranteed. But, I can't see fewer than 130 seats in any circumstances.Philip_Thompson said:
And the Lab range. How can 108 even be feasible? While he's essentially saying that sub 200 is guaranteed.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Con Gain Southport North West 99% LD0
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A Coptic friend of mine told me that the Palm Sunday bomb attack in Egypt was only a few minutes away from killing the Coptic Pope in his Cathedral.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, wildly off topic, Her Majesty did something very worthwhile today:
https://twitter.com/fdaoulb/status/862012096686501888
http://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/israel/2017/april/isis-easter-terror-wave-targets-churches-the-coptic-response-may-surprise-you0 -
Um. Breton Woods.AnneJGP said:
This bit tells me something I didn't know:williamglenn said:
True, but I think this part of the article is broadly correct:RobD said:
A lot of them did during the referendum. Remember the economic apocalypse that was due?williamglenn said:
In what way? Are you saying that the British elite does believe we need the EU?AnneJGP said:
Haven't read very far into it yet, but there seems to be a serious misunderstanding right here:Bromptonaut said:British exceptionalism skewered.
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
"Why does the British elite, and not the French and German ones, believe they do not need the EU?"
On the face of it, Brexit looks like a protest vote by the left behind. But the underlying reason is the hubris and ignorance of much of the British elite, not just the eurosceptics among it. They are less worldly than they imagine themselves to be. Their exaggeration of British political and economic power has fed the idea that Britain can afford to leave the EU, indeed flourish outside of it.
"The country’s biggest comparative advantage is in financial services and that is to a large extent because London has successfully become Europe’s dominant financial centre; the City of London was a relative backwater prior to Britain joining the EU. "
Edited to sort out italics
The City's dominance is built on the Eurodollar market - which gave us pools of capital to manage - and on The growth of FX trading after the end of Breton Woods in the early 1970s.
It was a relative backwater because financial services wasn't that important an industry0 -
It always comes as a bit of a surprise when something shows just how short HM is. I remember on a visit to America, HM was making a speech from a lectern that was the same height. Couldn't see her face at all.AlastairMeeks said:Meanwhile, wildly off topic, Her Majesty did something very worthwhile today:
https://twitter.com/fdaoulb/status/8620120966865018880 -
Yes, and if there's one thing we should have learnt from the last few elections, it's to pay attention to the error bars.AlastairMeeks said:
I think that's the point. The future is unwritten. But the boundaries of it must be increasingly secure.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he at least is not being over-precise in his forecasts!AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.
Having said that, it's worth noting Chris Hanratty's central forecast:
Con 413
Lab 156
LD 9
SNP 52 ??? This looks odd
PC 1
Green 1
0 -
Election Forecast has Con 95%+ to gain Wrexham, Delyn and Bridgend - but a significant (35%+) chance of losing Vale of Clwyd and Gower.
Seems odd.0 -
Presumably the ranges will tighten over the next 4 weeks.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he at least is not being over-precise in his forecasts!AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Does this guy also do the Met Office weather forecasts?AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Con Gain Redcar at 94%, Lab gain Gower @ 38% o_O ?!0
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And Lawson and King and George and Cunliffe, Wakefield, North, etcglw said:
Virtually all academics, most economists, most business leaders, the leaders of all main parties other than UKIP, most of the cabinet and governing party, and the great and the good in general were all against Brexit. Leave had Gove, BoJo and Farage.RobD said:Interesting that the two examples were noted has-beens. Anyway, that article said 'much of the British elite', which is clearly not true.
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I hope the Lib Dems win.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-labours-kate-hoey-cuts-lib-dem-rival-candidate-out-of-photo-but-forgets-to-edit-out-his-a3534471.html0 -
Now if Kim Jong May hadn't vetoed Bill Bratton...I just wonder.isam said:Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
twitter.com/standardnews/status/8620155691674337280 -
Eh, apart from 1997 the Map always looks pretty darn blue most of the time.RobD said:
Wow, Con 472AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.
And look at that blue map... just beautiful.
Predicting possible (not necessarily probable) LD wins in Bristol West (!), Bermondsey, Cambridge, Cambridge, Bath and Hornsey and Wood Green. The probability of losing Southport, Leeds North West and North Norfolk is amazingly high - imagine surviving the 2015 cull only to lose out 2 years later. Low probability of losing Westmoreland, Carsalton and Orkney - but still, for any prediction to have 6 potential losses out of 9, yeesh.
Possible Con losses in Bath, Gower, Vale of Clwys and Dumfriesshire (!). Tories more likely to gain in Fife than LD, LDs more likely to get Caithness?0 -
There's going to be a bit of rain and a bit of sun. Oh, and it will be windy. Again.FrancisUrquhart said:
Does this guy also do the Met Office weather forecasts?AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Chunky rangesAlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Why the sudden uptick in stabbings? It is quite incredible isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:
Now if Kim Jong May hadn't vetoed Bill Bratton...I just wonder.isam said:Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
twitter.com/standardnews/status/8620155691674337280 -
The latter I can see as being very very likely, though not impossible, but 108 feels wrong. I'm only going on gut, I'm not the academic here, but they get 150+ on pretty low scores, they've have to totally collapse to get into the low 100s I'd have thought, and I don't see where the evidence for such a collapse is coming from.Philip_Thompson said:
And the Lab range. How can 108 even be feasible? While he's essentially saying that sub 200 is guaranteed.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Tomkins begging Slab to stand aside in East Renf. Bar charttastic.calum said:The irony of SCON & SLID currently openly begging for tactical votes - then whinging about the Greens move !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/pro-independence-scottish-greens-prop-snp-standing-fewer-10/0 -
http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
The above article is full of nonsense. Take this for example:
"The country skilfully used its ties to the US and its EU membership to maximise its value to both sides; the EU helped Britain to punch above its weight."
Maximising your value to other actors in no way demonstrates influence. The only worthwhile evidence of influence is concrete achievements in the national interest; the French cementing agricultural subsidies for their small farmers, the Germans establishing a single currency that is structurally undervalued to support their exporters, all continental countries in securing Britain's fishing waters (80% of the EU total) as 'common' property.
We never had much influence in the EU, and yet were the second-largest contributor. Thank goodness we'll soon be out!0 -
There's an uptick in acid attacks too, sadly.isam said:
Why the sudden uptick in stabbings? It is quite incredible isn't it?FrancisUrquhart said:
Now if Kim Jong May hadn't vetoed Bill Bratton...I just wonder.isam said:Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
twitter.com/standardnews/status/862015569167433728
Edited for spelling0 -
They seem to be going backwards.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
Yeah, I'm a bit like that. I cannot deny as a unionist I hope there is some, but it is hypocritical of me as I am not a fan of the practice being so open and near official, rather than something that just happens at a low level. So I cannot blame any tactical voting the other way in Scotland.calum said:The irony of SCON & SLID currently openly begging for tactical votes - then whinging about the Greens move !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/09/pro-independence-scottish-greens-prop-snp-standing-fewer-10/0 -
This might shift a few more Welsh voters into the Con camp.
https://twitter.com/WelshLabour/status/8620239537532764160 -
Hanretty's forecast April 7 2015 :
Conservatives 246 287 326 -19
Labour 231 271 316 +13
SNP 26 42 54 +36
Liberal Democrats 19 27 36 -30
DUP 7 8 10 -1
SDLP 1 3 3 0
Plaid Cymru 1 2 4 -1
Greens 0 1 1 0
UKIP 0 1 1 1
Other 7 8 10 1
https://web.archive.org/web/20150407041428/http://electionforecast.co.uk/0 -
I wonder if he will ever actually stand for election as Labour MP or London Mayor? Is a genuine question, rather than a snide dig.dr_spyn said:This might shift a few more Welsh voters into the Con camp.
twitter.com/WelshLabour/status/8620239537532764160 -
The only explanation for their election campaign is that they've sold themselves on the spreads.chestnut said:
They seem to be going backwards.AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.0 -
I bet he was Afro Caribbean man just as Terror acts are likely to be Muslim men. We are paying the price for TMay's politically correct reform of stop and search. Just dissappointed The Met went along with it (but not suprised).rcs1000 said:
I bet it was a man.isam said:Another day, another stabbing. #londonlife
https://twitter.com/standardnews/status/8620155691674337280 -
That's hilarious. Great defence too.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour candidate Kate Hoey shared an image in which her Liberal Democrat challenger was apparently removed from a picture taken at an event in south London.
Ms Hoey is standing to be re-elected in the south London constituency she has held since 1989. She appeared today in a photo on Twitter where an crude effort had been made to erase rival Lib Dem candidate George Turner.
Eagle-eyed viewers noticed that Mr Turner's legs could be seen in the back row of Brexit supporter Ms Hoey’s photo. However his face and upper body had vanished.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/vauxhall-labours-kate-hoey-cuts-lib-dem-rival-candidate-out-of-photo-but-forgets-to-edit-out-his-a3534471.html
Ms Hoey told the Standard: "I was not willing to tweet a photo with anyone wearing a rosette because this was an apolitical event on behalf of the children and I did not want those partisan elements included.”
Ok, how about:
1) Photoshopping out the rosette
2) Blame it on an aide - that's what they are there for
3) Using a different photo.0 -
You, of course, favour the authoritarian route (as indicated by your choice of avatar).williamglenn said:
Brexit means Brexit, as the Eurocrat will say to the British PM. It will be an educational experience to get exactly what we voted for.Disraeli said:I'm a prole, so I choose democracy.
I regret that you don't believe in Democracy, but as a democrat myself I have to say "It's your choice". 0 -
Cementing our role as the financial hub of the EU while not being in the single currency. Being the destination of choice for young European talent because of our language and culture (and hence attracting inward capital investment too).RoyalBlue said:http://www.cer.org.uk/insights/british-and-their-exceptionalism
The above article is full of nonsense. Take this for example:
"The country skilfully used its ties to the US and its EU membership to maximise its value to both sides; the EU helped Britain to punch above its weight."
Maximising your value to other actors in no way demonstrates influence. The only worthwhile evidence of influence is concrete achievements in the national interest; the French cementing agricultural subsidies for their small farmers, the Germans establishing a single currency that is structurally undervalued to support their exporters, all continental countries in securing Britain's fishing waters (80% of the EU total) as 'common' property.
We never had much influence in the EU, and yet were the second-largest contributor. Thank goodness we'll soon be out!
We did well out of the arrangement we're throwing away.0 -
I really can't see the Tories breaking 400 without about 15 seats from Scotland. And even then...Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, and if there's one thing we should have learnt from the last few elections, it's to pay attention to the error bars.AlastairMeeks said:
I think that's the point. The future is unwritten. But the boundaries of it must be increasingly secure.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, he at least is not being over-precise in his forecasts!AlastairMeeks said:https://twitter.com/election4castuk/status/862018726425747457
Note the Lib Dem range.
Having said that, it's worth noting Chris Hanratty's central forecast:
Con 413
Lab 156
LD 9
SNP 52 ??? This looks odd
PC 1
Green 10 -
Change of medication ?TheScreamingEagles said:The other figure that stands out like a sore thumb, 10% of Lab's 2015 voters switched to The Tories.
That's the mother and father of all shellackings we're headed for, if the polling is right.
I want to know the 2% of 2015 Tories that have switched to Corbyn's Labour, why???0 -
Have to admit I am lost! Typical thick leaver w no degreeSandpit said: 0
