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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The future’s not orange. The Lib Dems look set to miss out

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  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,004


    Oh 1%. Strange - why didn't he type that instead? The 'p' & '%' keys aren't anywhere near each other.

    So say someone earns £30,000. The extra 1% is £300.

    And they pay that on top of existing taxes, with the costs of mortgage/rent, food, heat & light, vehicle(s) & fuel, and everything else they need to live.

    Then out of the little that remains for themselves, they have to pay another £300 - with no guarantee it will be spent efficiently or wisely.

    No wonder the LibDems use "penny in the pound" so it doesn't sound like much.

    It is 1p on the rate of income tax

    So 20p in the pound goes to 21p. 40p goes to 41p

    Someone on £30,000pa pays tax on £18,500 so 1p equals £185pa about £3.55 a week.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Scott_P said:

    Does that explain the massive drop in SNP vote share in Glasgow?
    Yes they only won an extra 8 seats and are largest party by a margin, real massive drop indeed.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    Ishmael_Z said:

    It's an annoying but common trick, messing around with the way numbers are presented like that; cf. "Well I think 39p a day is really good value for the licence fee, what with all those fascinating wildlife documentaries and of course Dr Who." It's what you'd expect from an LD barchartist, of course.though.
    Additionally the maths is wrong, a 1% tax rise on the basic rate raises £5bn not £6bn, the erosion of the tax base via the higher personal allowance means a 1% rise raises a lot less than it used to.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    RobD said:

    Oh if only someone had collated all this information into one place... https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    :smiley:
    It's not really that much use - you need to see the percentage movements in each Division to get a real understanding of what's going on.

    I cited two examples from Surrey and that's the kind of detail you need to be looking at not just party names on a spreadsheet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Stephen Daisley:

    Those Nationalists who have only latterly taken an interest in working class people should avoid 'it's just the Orange vote' canard.

    It's comforting if your politics is based on Scottish moral superiority ("we don't vote Tory") but it's not true

    These people aren't voting for the Union Jack. They're telling the SNP to put down the Saltire and get on with governing

    You can't abandon folk to poverty while you pursue your constitutional fixation then be shocked when they vote Tory

    Glasgow SNP has a good leader but failed to take a majority of GCC seats, which they should have done handily. Why do you think that is?

    'Get on with the day job' isn't an anti-SNP slogan. It's how people sincerely feel. Don't insult them; listen to them
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    Garza said:

    Lib Dems need to win over the middle class bourgeoisie champagne socialists. The type that pretends to fight for the working class, but mainly looks down on them most of the time as being racists.

    If they do that, then Labour is finished.
    I suppose these middle class bourgeoisie champagne socialists you talk about must exist somewhere - BBC executives maybe - but I have never met one. I can't imagine that they are a big enough demographic to have any impact on a general election.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422

    7 is much more than 164?
    That's Scottish Education for you......
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    stodge said:

    It's not really that much use - you need to see the percentage movements in each Division to get a real understanding of what's going on.

    I cited two examples from Surrey and that's the kind of detail you need to be looking at not just party names on a spreadsheet.
    But it does let you look beyond a simple net loss, which you alluded to in your post.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    Icarus said:


    It is 1p on the rate of income tax

    So 20p in the pound goes to 21p. 40p goes to 41p

    Someone on £30,000pa pays tax on £18,500 so 1p equals £185pa about £3.55 a week.

    It's an interesting idea and as with Paddy's 1p to fund education in 1992 it will have some traction. I do think the issues of funding health and especially social care need some serious debate but if we start from a view that any proposed increase in taxes is taboo we'll get precisely nowhere.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    I'm still trying to get my head around the idea of a Conservative mayor of Teesside.

    Trade union membership in the North East has dropped from 43% in 1995 to 30% in 2015. That, coupled with a larger block of post-retirement voters, likely means that the average northeastern voter has significantly less daily contact with organised pro-left/labour elements than they would have done a generation or two ago.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    I notice that huge Tory surge across Ayrshire and challenge malcolm to tell us truthfully which party he voted for.
    Must be soft in the head Alan, mind you the sheeple voted labour for many years so missing the self flagellation and noe some returning to doing same with Tories. Unbelievable the idiots just amaze me.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    Ok, which PB username does this 'expert' use?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/860655619690418176
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    RobD said:

    But it does let you look beyond a simple net loss, which you alluded to in your post.
    My point was the bare results often disguise something far more complex. Your spreadsheet is only part of the solution.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Fishing said:

    That's misleading. The NHS was built on the basis of cottage hospitals, which were introduced by the Conservatives, and the Conservatives would probably have introduced something similar had they won the 1945 election. The 1944 Health White Paper leaves little doubt about that. The NHS was an idea whose time had come.

    Also, we probably couldn't have afforded it without the American loan. So direct your thanks to the Americans and the Conservatives as much as to Labour.
    Cottage hospitals were not introduced by the Conservatives. The pre-NHS healthcare provision in the UK was a mixture of private, voluntary and state sector hospitals from time immemorial. The pre NHS state sector was in the workhouse hospitals, which combined hospitals with social care. The Leicester General Hospital was built in late Victorian times by the parishes of Leicester as a workhouse hospital, while Leicester Royal Infirmary was a voluntary hospital, essentially a not for profit private hosital. General Practice was largely private, until "panel doctors" were introduced by the Liberals.

    British Hospitals were effectively nationalised, commencing in 1938 in London, as part of the mobilisattion for war and expected bombing casualties (projections were for 300 000 bombing casualties in the first year). It was not a coincidence that the NHS was created immediately post war, as at that point the sector was like most of the country skint, but also almost all British doctors had been working for the government, either in uniform or in the wartime measures. It was that alignment with a Labour government that made the NHS possible. The NHS has been dealing with legacy estate issues ever since.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522

    I'm still trying to get my head around the idea of a Conservative mayor of Teesside.

    Labour had a lead of 38,000 in these seats in 2015.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    7 is much more than 164?

    Have you been studying Abborithmetic?
    Another loser trying to use anything but the real numbers. Just for man who cannot make up his mind what his name is , 431 is a bigger number by far than 276. 155 highe ror 56% higher if you prefer. By all measures LOSERS.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Rhubarb said:

    Trade union membership in the North East has dropped from 43% in 1995 to 30% in 2015. That, coupled with a larger block of post-retirement voters, likely means that the average northeastern voter has significantly less daily contact with organised pro-left/labour elements than they would have done a generation or two ago.
    Even so, I heard that the average salary in the area is £14k. That should never in normal times be even remotely Conservative.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Here is the result of the Scottish Council Elections:

    SNP 431 seats Tories 276 seats Labour 266 seats

    Far from seriously challenging the SNP, the Tories barely managed to edge out the Labour party. The Carlotta Vances, the Scott Ps, and let's not forget the Alanbrooke's ought to get a grip of reality :-)
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Icarus said:

    It is 1p on the rate of income tax

    So 20p in the pound goes to 21p. 40p goes to 41p

    Someone on £30,000pa pays tax on £18,500 so 1p equals £185pa about £3.55 a week.
    And the bottom line is that there are inexorable pressures on the NHS, on social care, on education, and on pensions. We're going to be paying more tax, whoever wins the election. Why else have the Tories ditched most of their promises on tax? At least the LibDems are being honest about it, and putting forward a straighftforward, transparent and fair approach for raising the extra money. The Tories are going to spend the next five years dreaming up every flavour of stealth tax they can,
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    stodge said:

    My point was the bare results often disguise something far more complex. Your spreadsheet is only part of the solution.

    As much as I love this sort of stuff, I simply don't have time to ingest all those figures to do more detailed comparisons. :p You are right it would be interesting to look at correlation between remain/leave and LD performance, for example. Probably easier to do that on a case by case basis than trying to work out what the leave/remain vote was in each ward, and ingesting all the vote figures.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    You'll see it sooner than that in Scotland....June 9th, at a guess.....
    Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Rhubarb said:

    Trade union membership in the North East has dropped from 43% in 1995 to 30% in 2015. That, coupled with a larger block of post-retirement voters, likely means that the average northeastern voter has significantly less daily contact with organised pro-left/labour elements than they would have done a generation or two ago.
    It 's certainly a surprise but the Labour Party need an coherent answer to what they would spend / cut due to austerity. The era of solving any problem by spending more and more money is over, and voters know that. Labour incoherently oppose every cut in every place, they have their heads in the sand.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    malcolmg said:

    Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
    I take it you think the SNPs were massive losers up until a few years ago? ;)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    Stephen Daisley:

    Those Nationalists who have only latterly taken an interest in working class people should avoid 'it's just the Orange vote' canard.

    It's comforting if your politics is based on Scottish moral superiority ("we don't vote Tory") but it's not true

    These people aren't voting for the Union Jack. They're telling the SNP to put down the Saltire and get on with governing

    You can't abandon folk to poverty while you pursue your constitutional fixation then be shocked when they vote Tory

    Glasgow SNP has a good leader but failed to take a majority of GCC seats, which they should have done handily. Why do you think that is?

    'Get on with the day job' isn't an anti-SNP slogan. It's how people sincerely feel. Don't insult them; listen to them

    Blawbag Daisley spouting usual Tory propaganda , how far up Ruthies butt can he get
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    malcolmg said:

    Care to bet that Tories are not massive losers on June 8th,
    You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,466
    18% just a few weeks before a GE.... overall the oranges cant be that badly off - back in 2015 they would have taken your arm off for a national vote of 18%, 100,000 plus members means that actually the cup is probably half full on reflection for the LibDems, I think around 20 seems a fair target for MPs, I think all the parties will need to get up and start campaigning again, I sense an air of acceptance (defeatism and complacency) about the result which means some surprises still lie on store
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Pretty despondent after the football last night, what a soulless place to watch football.

    I hope you took my advice and laid Spurs @ 2/5
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    Even so, I heard that the average salary in the area is £14k. That should never in normal times be even remotely Conservative.
    Only 21% turnout though, and only just over half voted Tory. The vast majority on median wages there didnt vote at all.

    Low turnout is as much the Tories friend as the absorbtion of the kippers*, low turnout is not good for democracy though.

    * 1/7 for no kipper seats is surely free money!?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Is this showing the party that had the largest increase in first preference vote share?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited May 2017
    This is a local election for local people to say NO TO A 2ND REFERENDUM!

    https://twitter.com/Glenn_Kitson/status/860771000396468224
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,485
    RobD said:



    As much as I love this sort of stuff, I simply don't have time to ingest all those figures to do more detailed comparisons. :p You are right it would be interesting to look at correlation between remain/leave and LD performance, for example. Probably easier to do that on a case by case basis than trying to work out what the leave/remain vote was in each ward, and ingesting all the vote figures.

    No, it would be a herculean task. My point is simply that detailed analysis of the results requires much more information.

    I'll offer you an example - the "Surrey Opposition Forum" was a meaningless bit of political posturing by the non-Conservative Councillors. Hazel Watson never stopped being an LD so it's not really worth putting that in.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    That's Scottish Education for you......
    You wouldn't know for sure
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    JPJ2 said:

    Here is the result of the Scottish Council Elections:

    SNP 431 seats Tories 276 seats Labour 266 seats

    Far from seriously challenging the SNP, the Tories barely managed to edge out the Labour party. The Carlotta Vances, the Scott Ps, and let's not forget the Alanbrooke's ought to get a grip of reality :-)

    JPJ2

    you big jock spoilsport

    nobody has been commenting on reality here for years , why pick on me ?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    At last, some straightforward analysis on the Lib Dems other than talking about their 'ground game'.

    I was posting at the beginning of the week that so far the story of GE2017 was the failure of the Lib Dems to move forward. On paper circumstances should offer more fertile ground but it just isn't happening.

    One key issue, again, I suspect, is the leader. Nick Clegg came across alright to the public, Farron not so much. The Conservatives may be focussing on one issue but you basically know where you stand with Conservative outlook overall beyond Brexit. They have also angled the line of attack on Brexit, its about who is going to run that show, not the show itself.

    With the Lib Dems, they talk about Brexit as an issue. I think for a large swathe of the public, Brexit is done, its happening. The Lib Dems haven't angled the line of presuasion.

    Do they go down the line of Labour by talking more about policy outside of Brexit? Maybe, and I notice this morning they are out of the blocks overt NHS & tax. Whatever, they need to do something different

    Having said that, I think they have an opportunity to rise above 15, I can see late teens if things go right. Woeful as that result would still be.


  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    18% just a few weeks before a GE.... overall the oranges cant be that badly off - back in 2015 they would have taken your arm off for a national vote of 18%, 100,000 plus members means that actually the cup is probably half full on reflection for the LibDems, I think around 20 seems a fair target for MPs, I think all the parties will need to get up and start campaigning again, I sense an air of acceptance (defeatism and complacency) about the result which means some surprises still lie on store

    Considering that the Cons are increasing their vote shares in most areas, LDs outperform in local elections and this increase in VS is likely to be fairly even across the country then I think that an excellent night for them is getting above 16.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, lets make up some seats to kid on we did better than we actually did, what a wheeze.
    Boundary changes are real not made up. If you can't get your head around boundary changes that says more about you than anyone else.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658


    Oh 1%. Strange - why didn't he type that instead? The 'p' & '%' keys aren't anywhere near each other.

    So say someone earns £30,000. The extra 1% is £300.

    And they pay that on top of existing taxes, with the costs of mortgage/rent, food, heat & light, vehicle(s) & fuel, and everything else they need to live.

    Then out of the little that remains for themselves, they have to pay another £300 - with no guarantee it will be spent efficiently or wisely.

    No wonder the LibDems use "penny in the pound" so it doesn't sound like much.
    ? It is standard practice to describe increases or decreases in income tax as a penny.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IanB2 said:

    And the bottom line is that there are inexorable pressures on the NHS, on social care, on education, and on pensions. We're going to be paying more tax, whoever wins the election. Why else have the Tories ditched most of their promises on tax? At least the LibDems are being honest about it, and putting forward a straighftforward, transparent and fair approach for raising the extra money. The Tories are going to spend the next five years dreaming up every flavour of stealth tax they can,
    What we need is to respray the bus orange, and tour the country promising £350 million per week extra for the NHS.
  • RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Freggles said:



    Rather than the Tory approach of caring so much about the working class when it comes to immigration, then cutting their benefits?

    People like you seem to think the working class are all on benefits. That may be Labour's long-term goal but it hasn't been achieved yet. Working people want work. The clue's in the name.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107

    You think the Tories will lose seats - well seat - in Scotland?
    I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic.
    No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Alanbrooke

    I know, I know, I really ought to ignore you :-)
  • theakestheakes Posts: 960
    Lib Dems 5 - 9 seats
  • felix said:
    All of the wards in Edinburgh are multi member, and in most SNP and SLAB were standing 2 candidates. Therefore, single first preference doesn't tell you very much - overall first preferences for parties would give you an accurate picture.

    (Before everyone goes chucking money on SCON to win ENL).
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    I love the matching of elections to historic areas of division in the country (recent examples - suggesting that the French election mirrors the division of France during the 100 years war, and, yesterday, the alignment of Scotland along civil war lines). One can imagine in hundreds of year's time people still corraliting UK election results with the Referendum.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Alistair said:
    No I think it is showing before and after pics of who won the first preference vote in each ward. A fair few wards (especially but not just those blue in 2012) are the same colours in both.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,033
    Icarus said:

    It is 1p on the rate of income tax

    So 20p in the pound goes to 21p. 40p goes to 41p

    Someone on £30,000pa pays tax on £18,500 so 1p equals £185pa about £3.55 a week.
    Thanks for debunking Mr Hopkins fail at 'O' level maths.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349

    Pretty despondent after the football last night, what a soulless place to watch football.

    I hope you took my advice and laid Spurs @ 2/5

    Most of my West Ham mates backed the 8/1, cant believe I didn't really, that was an amazing price.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017

    People like you seem to think the working class are all on benefits. That may be Labour's long-term goal but it hasn't been achieved yet. Working people want work. The clue's in the name.

    A high percentage of working people are on benefits, either in the form of tax credits or child benefit, even before we get into housing benefit or social housing.

    The raising of allowances by the LDs in coalition helps as well.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    theakes said:

    Lib Dems 5 - 9 seats

    That would be an amazing result... for my wallet.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2017

    Thanks for debunking Mr Hopkins fail at 'O' level maths.

    I was making a point. Calculating it to the exact penny for each week doesn't change that point.

  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Chameleon said:

    Even so, I heard that the average salary in the area is £14k. That should never in normal times be even remotely Conservative.
    This income map/statistics shows it as poor, but not as poor as some of the traditionally tory voting rural areas just south.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    isam said:

    Most of my West Ham mates backed the 8/1, cant believe I didn't really, that was an amazing price.
    WHU

    the Hammer of the Hots
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,364
    stodge said:

    No, it would be a herculean task. My point is simply that detailed analysis of the results requires much more information.

    I'll offer you an example - the "Surrey Opposition Forum" was a meaningless bit of political posturing by the non-Conservative Councillors. Hazel Watson never stopped being an LD so it's not really worth putting that in.

    Ah, thanks - I had them as Independent but I see the BBC are reporting them as LD holds.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Thanks for debunking Mr Hopkins fail at 'O' level maths.
    Oh look, aftertiming. And the error wasn't mathematical.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    malcolmg said:
    Absolutely brilliant
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The Conservative increase in Scotland is obviously potentially important - not because they can claim to be "winners" but simply because it puts them in a position in many areas as "main challengers". Once you are established as main challengers you will attract votes because opponents of the leading party will see you as a viable prospect to replace them. That is just elections 101, even more so under FPTP.

    The question that needs to be asked though is whether increases in votes allow the genuine prospect of future growth, or whether (especially when from a very low base) if the increase in the result of maxing out on the floating c10-20% of "protest votes" that are around in every electorate. That for example is the real LibDem issue. When they talk of revival they are thinking they can return to the heights of the early 2000s. But a huge part of that rise was from voters that would inevitably drift away once they obtained any element of genuine power.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Just worked out what they've done. They've taken the single candidate with the highest vote to produce the maps which is total bollocks.

    In most the SNP were standing 2 candidates, in Leith Walk the SNP got 35% of the vote over 2 candidates and the single green got 20% so the ward is coloured green on the map.

    Bonkers visualisation
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Oh look, aftertiming. And the error wasn't mathematical.
    Lets never forget that Logical Song said "Buying opportunity" when the Lib Dems were 10/1 in Stoke, and then said that phrase didn't mean he thought it was a value bet (when they had drifted to about 50/1)
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    It's good to see that some conservatives haven't lost their moral compass:

    https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/859728239568277504
  • LordWakefieldLordWakefield Posts: 144
    Freggles said:

    Rather than the Tory approach of caring so much about the working class when it comes to immigration, then cutting their benefits?
    A massive difference exists between the working class and the benefits class, it's quite clear when you live amoungst them. For the sneerers looking down obviously not.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,522
    malcolmg said:

    I am saying that SNP will be the winners in Scotland and will have most of teh seats, whethr the tories need a tandem or not is NOT winning. Tories will be massive losers in the Scottish vote. Carlotta's warped thinking that being a massiv eloser but ahead of the next massive loser is winning is pretty pathetic.
    No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.
    I'd say the Tories did pretty well, at least compared to the last 25 years. They're back to the kind of support they had in 1992.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Alistair said:

    Just worked out what they've done. They've taken the single candidate with the highest vote to produce the maps which is total bollocks.

    In most the SNP were standing 2 candidates, in Leith Walk the SNP got 35% of the vote over 2 candidates and the single green got 20% so the ward is coloured green on the map.

    Bonkers visualisation
    I swear there was a more accurate version ciculated before with the most vote colour (on a party not candidate basis) and little rings for the 3/4 members.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    malcolmg said:

    No matter how you cut it the Tories are nowhere in Scotland.

    Actually, Malky, however you cut it, the Tories are everywhere in Scotland
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Stephen Daisley:

    Those Nationalists who have only latterly taken an interest in working class people should avoid 'it's just the Orange vote' canard.

    It's comforting if your politics is based on Scottish moral superiority ("we don't vote Tory") but it's not true

    These people aren't voting for the Union Jack. They're telling the SNP to put down the Saltire and get on with governing

    You can't abandon folk to poverty while you pursue your constitutional fixation then be shocked when they vote Tory

    Glasgow SNP has a good leader but failed to take a majority of GCC seats, which they should have done handily. Why do you think that is?

    'Get on with the day job' isn't an anti-SNP slogan. It's how people sincerely feel. Don't insult them; listen to them

    Except there is a clear correlation between social deprivation and the SNP vote. The Edinburgh results make that blindingly clear.

    It was the richer end of he spectrum voting Tory.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    malcolmg said:
    Very cruel.Typical of the NATSY party. Poor losers.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Freggles said:

    2017 is a good election to lose. When Brexit takes shape someone is going to be very angry and that will be directed at the government

    They said that about 2010 as well...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688

    Ok, which PB username does this 'expert' use?

    https://twitter.com/thoughtland/status/860655619690418176

    Sounds like my Scottish* boss. It's pure shellshock.

    He's amazed there were ten Tory voters in Glasgow, let alone ten Tory councillors.

    A Tory councillor in Shettleston???

    He assumes either the voters are trolling us all, were either pissed when they voted, or didn't understand the voting system or all three.

    And he's a Tory.

    *Well he's lived in England since 1987
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,884

    All of the wards in Edinburgh are multi member, and in most SNP and SLAB were standing 2 candidates. Therefore, single first preference doesn't tell you very much - overall first preferences for parties would give you an accurate picture.

    (Before everyone goes chucking money on SCON to win ENL).
    True and on that interpretation of the Council results, the Tories look to be in a good position to take Edinburgh South West and Labour to take Midlothian. Astonishing given the SNP margins just two years ago.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    edited May 2017
    malcolmg said:
    The difference between May and her predecssors is that they actually did pretend to be drinking pints of stuff they don't drink for staged "real" photo opps. She also hasn't started pretending to support West Ham Villa like Dave or thrown in an bit of faux cockney yet like Glottal Stop Gideon, which is probably why normal people from all parties seem to be ok w her
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    malcolmg said:
    LOL and really good photoshopping, but not an attack - could be a votewinner in some key demographics. I'm sure someone will do an 80 shilling version for your neck of the woods.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    On topic I agree with Alastair, I said yesterday morning Hallam might be the shock of the night June 8th.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,134
    Alistair said:

    Just worked out what they've done. They've taken the single candidate with the highest vote to produce the maps which is total bollocks.

    In most the SNP were standing 2 candidates, in Leith Walk the SNP got 35% of the vote over 2 candidates and the single green got 20% so the ward is coloured green on the map.

    Bonkers visualisation
    If you are right then these maps are rubbish.

    Since each voter has a single vote, what they should have done is totalled the first prefs for each party. Are you absolutely sure they have not done this?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    CD13 said:

    Mr Roger,

    FPT

    "In medicine, the natural order is generally diagnosis, treatment and then a prognosis. The Labour party haven't agreed on the first yet.

    The diagnosis is an inoperable tumour - one Jeremy Corbyn. There may be other minor ailments but they are irrelevant to life expectancy. However, the labour Party members are in denial still. It's the fault of the media, the Blairites, the idiot electors. Change them and all is well.

    Jezza will go nowhere until the members reach the correct diagnosis or the patient dies. Prognosis - not good."

    Nah. Corbyn is just a metasis and an operable one at that.

    It's the lymphoma (disconnection from the vast majority of the population) that will kill them eventually
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    If you are right then these maps are rubbish.

    Since each voter has a single vote, what they should have done is totalled the first prefs for each party. Are you absolutely sure they have not done this?
    100% positive. They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    It was the richer end of he spectrum voting Tory.

    ...in Shettleston...
  • isamisam Posts: 41,349
    Charles said:

    Nah. Corbyn is just a metasis and an operable one at that.

    It's the lymphoma (disconnection from the vast majority of the population) that will kill them eventually
    Hey Charles, did you read that article on the Garden Bridge from onlondon.co.uk?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Rhubarb said:

    This income map/statistics shows it as poor, but not as poor as some of the traditionally tory voting rural areas just south.
    It also needs to be looked at in terms of Gross Disposeable Income per Head, allowing for lower living costs. Incidentally Leicester has the lowest GDI in the UK.

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-3099541/Westminster-residents-highest-disposable-income-head-Britain-Leicester-foot-table.html
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    edited May 2017

    Sounds like my Scottish* boss. It's pure shellshock.

    He's amazed there were ten Tory voters in Glasgow, let alone ten Tory councillors.

    A Tory councillor in Shettleston???

    He assumes either the voters are trolling us all, were either pissed when they voted, or didn't understand the voting system or all three.

    And he's a Tory.

    *Well he's lived in England since 1987

    Well he's lived in England since 1987

    So his experience is 30 years out of date then.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited May 2017
    Alistair said:

    They just taken the individual candidate with the highest vote share to colour the ward. Checked across a bunch of wards.

    You mean the winner under FPTP rules?

    Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Alistair said:

    Just worked out what they've done. They've taken the single candidate with the highest vote to produce the maps which is total bollocks.

    In most the SNP were standing 2 candidates, in Leith Walk the SNP got 35% of the vote over 2 candidates and the single green got 20% so the ward is coloured green on the map.

    Bonkers visualisation
    Standard Tory tactics used by their tame media, BBC reported Tories won Glasgow with them getting 8 seats out of 85.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,789
    Alistair said:

    Except there is a clear correlation between social deprivation and the SNP vote. The Edinburgh results make that blindingly clear.

    It was the richer end of he spectrum voting Tory.

    Except there is a clear correlation between social deprivation and the SNP vote.

    vote SNP and we'll keep you in poverty ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    You mean the winner under FPTP rules?

    Yeah, that's not helpful for the upcoming GE AT ALL...
    Pretty sure parties wouldn't​ stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.

    Poor quality trolling.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    isam said:

    Most of my West Ham mates backed the 8/1, cant believe I didn't really, that was an amazing price.

    I backed them at 7-1. Put me back at level after my previous round of bets. Also got a 250-1 on Man City finishing 2nd and Spurs finishing 3rd. Can't find odds on a Chelsea, City, Liverpool top 3, though. Have asked Paddy Power for a price and am hoping they oblige.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Ishmael_Z said:

    LOL and really good photoshopping, but not an attack - could be a votewinner in some key demographics. I'm sure someone will do an 80 shilling version for your neck of the woods.
    Showing your age with 80 shilling, all craft beers nowadays. I have not seen or heard of 80 shilling for ages, a blast from the past. Photo is just funny and well done.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alistair said:

    Pretty sure parties wouldn't​ stand two candidates in the same seat in a fptp election.

    Except the SNP, who will give one of their candidates a Green rosette :smile:
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    LOL and really good photoshopping, but not an attack - could be a votewinner in some key demographics. I'm sure someone will do an 80 shilling version for your neck of the woods.
    What's wrong with 80 shilling? Lots of decent Scottish beermakers do a version.

    Hauf bottle o' Buckie would be the Scottish jakie equivalent.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    LOL and really good photoshopping, but not an attack - could be a votewinner in some key demographics. I'm sure someone will do an 80 shilling version for your neck of the woods.
    Left wing satirists, infatuated by their own brilliance, falling into the trap that led to "Super Mac" and "The Iron Lady".
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 686


    Well he's lived in England since 1987

    So 30 years out of date then.

    I am a boss in Glasgow area and I was still surprised as were my staff who live in east Glasgow. The tories are now the protest vote in Scotland and especially loved by young guys who support rangers. In Glasgow it is like being a millwall fan.

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    perdix said:

    Very cruel.Typical of the NATSY party. Poor losers.

    Saddo , obviously had a humour bypass, back under your Tory rock where you belong.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,688
    edited May 2017
    Off topic, should I be worried about Wikileaks attempts to do to Macron what they did to Hillary?

    I has a big red next to Le Pen on Betfair.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,107
    Scott_P said:

    Actually, Malky, however you cut it, the Tories are everywhere in Scotland
    They are in charge of NOTHING and hopefully it remains that way for a long time to come.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    isam said:

    The difference between May and her predecssors is that they actually did pretend to be drinking pints of stuff they don't drink for staged "real" photo opps. She also hasn't started pretending to support West Ham Villa like Dave or thrown in an bit of faux cockney yet like Glottal Stop Gideon, which is probably why normal people from all parties seem to be ok w her
    I suspect TM doesn't eat takeaway chips very often. She is a Type 1 diabetic. It is as fake as any photo stunt.

    Our bet on UKIP this election looks good for me! This election is an extinction event for UKIP.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Off topic, should I be worried about Wikileaks attempts to do Macron what they did to Hillary?

    I has a big red next to Le Pen on Betfair.

    You can have a Rogeresque NO from me.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,487
    Excellent photoshop of May, though personally I prefer the Star Wars one (where she's escorted by four red guards).
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,356
    IanB2 said:

    If you are right then these maps are rubbish.

    Since each voter has a single vote, what they should have done is totalled the first prefs for each party. Are you absolutely sure they have not done this?
    Mission accomplished though.

    'There is only one winner today'
  • JonnyJimmyJonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    malcolmg said:

    Another loser trying to use anything but the real numbers. Just for man who cannot make up his mind what his name is , 431 is a bigger number by far than 276. 155 highe ror 56% higher if you prefer. By all measures LOSERS.
    You lost the only vote that actually mattered to you. And if you're unfortunate enough to have endure another, you'll lose that too.

    McLOSER ;)
This discussion has been closed.