politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013.
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Not that I can judge, no elections in my part of the world.
Also my local single issue facebook campaign...
I may force myself round to the ballot box once I have slaved over a hot stove for a while.
C U all later
Intrigued to see how the Lib Dems do.
Or, from Annie Hall:
ALVY'S THERAPIST: How often do you sleep together?
ANNIE'S THERAPIST: Do you have sex often?
ALVY: Hardly ever. Maybe three times a week.
ANNIE: Constantly. I'd say three times a week.
Carolus_Rex said:
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Reminds me of a cartoon I saw once. Bride and groom with thought bubbles coming out of each of their heads.
His: "I just have to say 'I do' and I can have sex whenever I want."
Hers: "I just have to say 'I do' and I never have to have sex again"
The big issue after the talktalk hack (and the Sony hack) is the number of people who use the same password for more than one site
Someone who had their bank details stolen from talktalk, lost their savings because their bank login and their talktalk login were the same (apparently)
These issues can be avoided by using 2 factor auth (including the current Google docs phishing scam), BUT, don't use SMS. Use a hardware key or authenticator
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/05/03/hackers_fire_up_ss7_flaw/
Actually in the latest YG the Tories are only 3% behind - add in a 3% MOE the right way....
I wasted my voting time- the wife voted for The Independent and the Son Labour and I voted Tory - and those are the only 3 candidates.
24 million people according to original CBO score won't have health insurance....wow. And now with the amendment re pre-existing conditions....
Apparently, it's unlikely that the bill in its current form will pass the Senate. Seems as though Team Trump are just looking to say they 'passed' something. They don't actually care what's in it, they just want to say they passed it. How sad.
In regard to voter suppression, the worst affected will be Trump country - older, white, working-class voters voted for Trump big time, and a lot of them are on Obamacare. Presumably, they believed Trump's promises in regard to pre-existing conditions during the election. So I wonder how they'd manage to stop Trump's own base from voting, as it won't just be minorities who get badly affected from this legislation. Increasingly, polls are showing that more Americans are open to single payer. I wonder if this legislation will shift the healthcare debate in the US more in that direction.
@Beverley_C Yeah, I'm not surprised by the content of that link. Pro-life when it's fetus, or in cases of euthanasia - Republicans embrace a very narrow definition of 'pro-life'. How this healthcare bill is 'pro-life' only God knows.
@Ishmael_Z The Westboro Bapist Church. Awful. Too many of those types define Christianity by how much hate they can spread. I think Louis Theroux did a documentary on them.
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856
https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856
https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856
1: "Good, I don't like him either."
2: "I don't like him but since others apparently also don't like him I'm going to vote for him now."
https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/quiz-can-name-partys-official-2017-election-slogan/
@prospect_uk: Half of Lib Dem voters prefer May to Corbyn. The problems with a "progressive alliance": https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-progressive-alliance-wouldnt-work-greens-labour https://twitter.com/prospect_uk/status/860172170575720450/photo/1
We're talking those that might otherwise stay home. Lifelong labour voters who aren't corbynistas
How the mighty have fallen.
https://goo.gl/uzcozl
I'm on the fence about adding Wales, but Scotland is out of the question given (what I think are) significant boundary change which makes it difficult to calculate who won what ward of who without access to notional results (there are a few of those in England too, so I have just guesstimated those Councils for now).
Jeremy with his cat El Gato. Theresa May by her own admission says No.10's Larry The Cat has never came into her office. Cats know things
Wonder if he's planning to run instead of Engel. He's probably got more personal vote tbh...
2 out of 6.
4 of those were bad guesses.
Copied into a Google sheet and ordered in time order...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXr0kgrQmlQWve6KfUM9LOtsjP18_2bzj38wdYEvaCA/edit?usp=sharing
(let me know if there are any errors)
Because of how efficient their vote was in 2013, and because of the fact that most of the seats they will be fighting this time around will be against Conservative challengers, I wouldn't expect a big increase in LD seats.
My guess (and it's just a guess) is that in England they'll inch up from 352 to 375-380.
UKIP will be absolutely hammered, and I'd be surprised if they held onto more than a dozen of the 147 they won last time around.
I suspect Labour will drop around 100-150 seats.
So: Con +225, LD + 25, Lab -125, UKIP -125
Something like that.
That's an amazing spread sheet! thanks for making it available for all.
I believe the Germans have a word for Her Majesty which is separate to queens generally.
Is Cambridgeshire right? If it is, that's a phenomenal coincidence with the parties grouped alphabetically by ward...
Con - 10 seats
Lab -4 seats
LDem - 5 seats
UKIP -5 seats
Ind/Others - 1 seat
http://www.environmentamerica.org/sites/environment/files/reports/Fracking by the Numbers vUS.pdf
You have no need to worry though, Javid is waving through all INEOS' applications if councils reject them.
I don't get their thinking at all.
one of local lib dems knocking on doors trying to get vote out - no sign of anybody else.
http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/15265587.UPDATE__Tory_candidate_in_target_seat_stands_down_due_to_personal_reasons/
Clearly, the world applauds Macron's defeat of Le Pen using his superior debating skills. Or something. Le Monde plays a different angle:
"Macron et l’évasion fiscale : itinéraire d’une rumeur, de 4chan aux plateaux télé"
("Macron and tax evasion: progress of a rumour, from 4chan to our TV sets. The candidate for En Marche! has submitted a complaint after the publication on the internet of documents purporting to show that he has a bank account in the Bahamas.")
Which is not to say they're backing Le Pen. Quite the contrary: they have a front page headline pushing Macron's main message in last night's debate: that Le Pen tells lies: "Marine Le Pen: Strategy of a Lie".
In another article they list the 19 "intoxes" she used in the debate: 19 poisonous lies she hurled at that innocent nice looking man from Rothschilds.
Tomorrow is the last day for the publication of opinion polls.
The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.
I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
Better still was Princess Anne, she also came and socialised with us, she was very down to earth, but all good things come to an end, along came Gordo who was glad handing everyone and was very dismissive when I tried to discuss matters with him.
I was never particularly a Royalist, but they do a fantastic job, and will be sorely missed.