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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

SystemSystem Posts: 12,355
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

There is a whole series of different sets of elections taking place today and the chart focuses on English council seats which were last fought in 2013.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    First?
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2017
    Second! Like Obama ...
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    edited May 2017
    2nd - like SNP
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Arthur_Penny said:

    2nd - like SNP

    Your arithmetic is certainly as good as the SNPs :)
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,892
    Could LDs overtake Labour in no. of seats?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Turnout's going to be really interesting. I wouldn't be shocked if it's down close to PCBE levels as there's got to be a good chance that the campaign's been drowned out by the GE campaign.

    Not that I can judge, no elections in my part of the world.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,999
    edited May 2017
    Natascha Engel has fallen foul of the local anti-fracking pressure group. That was probably her last chance to be perfectly honest.

    Also my local single issue facebook campaign...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,802
    edited May 2017
    Seventh. Like the party that comes eighth!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    I have not got around to voting today. I am feeling very uninspired.

    I may force myself round to the ballot box once I have slaved over a hot stove for a while.

    C U all later
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,892
    I work in County Durham and hardly anyone I've spoken to is even aware there's an election today.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Good evening, everyone.

    Intrigued to see how the Lib Dems do.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,802
    Only a handful of those UKIP 145 will be left after tomorrow's counting.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pulpstar said:

    Natascha Engel has fallen foul of the local anti-fracking pressure group. That was probably her last chance to be perfectly honest.

    Also my local single issue facebook campaign...

    Two new deputy speakers? Eleanor Laing looks fairly safe if she wants to carry on...
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    I'm wondering if a disastrous labour showing might save them seats at the GE as wzverers feel safer voting for them knowing they won't win.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Mr. Woolie, that's possible, as is the reverse. If Labour do better than expected it *might* slightly depress their vote in the GE.
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    FPT
    Or, from Annie Hall:

    ALVY'S THERAPIST: How often do you sleep together?

    ANNIE'S THERAPIST: Do you have sex often?

    ALVY: Hardly ever. Maybe three times a week.

    ANNIE: Constantly. I'd say three times a week.

    Carolus_Rex said:
    » show previous quotes
    Reminds me of a cartoon I saw once. Bride and groom with thought bubbles coming out of each of their heads.

    His: "I just have to say 'I do' and I can have sex whenever I want."

    Hers: "I just have to say 'I do' and I never have to have sex again"
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    are any results counted tonight, or is it all done tomorrow?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Voting Green tonight in a straight green v labour fist fight in Clive Lewis territory
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,294
    Just into the closing stages of the podcast. As someone else commented, pleased that it's nice and level-headed, compared to the over-the-top reactions of others in the media following May's statement.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Woolie, that's possible, as is the reverse. If Labour do better than expected it *might* slightly depress their vote in the GE.

    I think their vote will be thoroughly depressed regardless
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    FPT, discussion on Internet security

    The big issue after the talktalk hack (and the Sony hack) is the number of people who use the same password for more than one site

    Someone who had their bank details stolen from talktalk, lost their savings because their bank login and their talktalk login were the same (apparently)

    These issues can be avoided by using 2 factor auth (including the current Google docs phishing scam), BUT, don't use SMS. Use a hardware key or authenticator

    https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/05/03/hackers_fire_up_ss7_flaw/
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Beverley_C said:

    show previous quotes
    Your arithmetic is certainly as good as the SNPs :)
    But a bit better than Abbotomics.

    Actually in the latest YG the Tories are only 3% behind - add in a 3% MOE the right way....

    I wasted my voting time- the wife voted for The Independent and the Son Labour and I voted Tory - and those are the only 3 candidates.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,970
    typo - "Labour's peak..."
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2017
    FPT:
    SouthamObserver said:

    show previous quotes
    Yep, Corbynista tend to stay behind the keyboard, which is why moderates tend to win when the votes require people to be in attendance - see CLP candidate nominations, regional executive appointments etc. It's a reason why there is a very good chance the McDonnell amendment will not be passed at conference in the autumn.

    The new healthcare legislation in the US is going to put premiums up massively for millions of Americans and deprive many of them of coverage. The Republicans will now focus on voter suppression to ensure that those affected do not get a chance to kick them out.

    That's the one saving grace for Labour.

    24 million people according to original CBO score won't have health insurance....wow. And now with the amendment re pre-existing conditions....

    Apparently, it's unlikely that the bill in its current form will pass the Senate. Seems as though Team Trump are just looking to say they 'passed' something. They don't actually care what's in it, they just want to say they passed it. How sad.

    In regard to voter suppression, the worst affected will be Trump country - older, white, working-class voters voted for Trump big time, and a lot of them are on Obamacare. Presumably, they believed Trump's promises in regard to pre-existing conditions during the election. So I wonder how they'd manage to stop Trump's own base from voting, as it won't just be minorities who get badly affected from this legislation. Increasingly, polls are showing that more Americans are open to single payer. I wonder if this legislation will shift the healthcare debate in the US more in that direction.

    @Beverley_C Yeah, I'm not surprised by the content of that link. Pro-life when it's fetus, or in cases of euthanasia - Republicans embrace a very narrow definition of 'pro-life'. How this healthcare bill is 'pro-life' only God knows.

    @Ishmael_Z The Westboro Bapist Church. Awful. Too many of those types define Christianity by how much hate they can spread. I think Louis Theroux did a documentary on them.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dyedwoolie said:

    I'm wondering if a disastrous labour showing might save them seats at the GE as wzverers feel safer voting for them knowing they won't win.

    Do people pay enough attention to politics to make this leap?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Philip_Thompson said:

    show previous quotes
    Do people pay enough attention to politics to make this leap?
    If it leads the 6 and 10s tomorrow it would dribble into the consciousness
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    MTimT said:

    are any results counted tonight, or is it all done tomorrow?

    There's a few tonight, primarily in Wales. Mostly counting tomorrow though. :(
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 50,802
    MTimT said:

    are any results counted tonight, or is it all done tomorrow?

    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_name.php
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,999
    Philip_Thompson said:

    show previous quotes
    Do people pay enough attention to politics to make this leap?
    No chance, I know Dyedwoolie is putting it out there innocently enough, but this is DEEP into Justin Shortstraws territory.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    It's not just us who appreciate 'dr' Eoin....

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Sandpit said:

    show previous quotes
    There's a few tonight, primarily in Wales. Mostly counting tomorrow though. :(
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
    Thanks, and to IanB2
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    dyedwoolie said:

    show previous quotes
    If it leads the 6 and 10s tomorrow it would dribble into the consciousness
    For those who don't obsessively follow politics which is more likely reaction to "Corbyn's Labour badly":

    1: "Good, I don't like him either."
    2: "I don't like him but since others apparently also don't like him I'm going to vote for him now."
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Looking on Sky, there doesn't seem to be any planned special coverage for the Local elections this year....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    I got 3 out of 6.

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/quiz-can-name-partys-official-2017-election-slogan/
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh dear

    @prospect_uk: Half of Lib Dem voters prefer May to Corbyn. The problems with a "progressive alliance": https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-progressive-alliance-wouldnt-work-greens-labour https://twitter.com/prospect_uk/status/860172170575720450/photo/1
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:

    show previous quotes
    For those who don't obsessively follow politics which is more likely reaction to "Corbyn's Labour badly":

    1: "Good, I don't like him either."
    2: "I don't like him but since others apparently also don't like him I'm going to vote for him now."
    I'm not talking about dozens of seats but it might, and I emphasise might, make the difference in a few of whatever become marginals this time around. Or I could be completely wrong. As I'm not in team May, Corbyn or Farron I'm dispassionate on this matter.
    We're talking those that might otherwise stay home. Lifelong labour voters who aren't corbynistas
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2017
    DELETED.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    It's not just us who appreciate 'dr' Eoin....

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856

    https://twitter.com/Mr_Eugenides/status/860162380940025856

    Mr E was once a great blogger. Now I see that he retweets TSE.

    How the mighty have fallen.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    edited May 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Looking on Sky, there doesn't seem to be any planned special coverage for the Local elections this year....

    Because of the woeful coverage this year I have decided to dust off my local elections spreadsheet from a few years ago for the English councils. Hopefully will be able to keep it up to date in real time, apart from a few hours for sleep! As you can see we are 18/2386 (or 0.75%) of the way there!

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    I'm on the fence about adding Wales, but Scotland is out of the question given (what I think are) significant boundary change which makes it difficult to calculate who won what ward of who without access to notional results (there are a few of those in England too, so I have just guesstimated those Councils for now).
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    ThreeQuidder said:

    I got 3 out of 6.

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/04/quiz-can-name-partys-official-2017-election-slogan/

    4 out of 6 but 3 of those were good guesses
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    GeoffM said:

    show previous quotes
    Mr E was once a great blogger. Now I see that he retweets TSE.

    How the mighty have fallen.
    Eoin Clarke‏ @LabourEoin 42m42 minutes ago

    Jeremy with his cat El Gato. Theresa May by her own admission says No.10's Larry The Cat has never came into her office. Cats know things
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,999
    Harry Barnes has just posted on the antifracking local fb message board :o !
    Wonder if he's planning to run instead of Engel. He's probably got more personal vote tbh...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,637
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear

    @prospect_uk: Half of Lib Dem voters prefer May to Corbyn. The problems with a "progressive alliance": https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-progressive-alliance-wouldnt-work-greens-labour https://twitter.com/prospect_uk/status/860172170575720450/photo/1

    Only half? Rubbish. More like 90%
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,787
    Sandpit said:

    show previous quotes
    There's a few tonight, primarily in Wales. Mostly counting tomorrow though. :(
    http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/all_2017_by_time.php
    My understanding is that the PA list is... unhelpful... It lists county's, but the counting is organised by the districts and so if 4 of 5 districts are counting overnight, but the 5th is in the morning the PA list will show the last time. I think that there are more counting overnight than you would think from the list basically.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    Lennon said:

    show previous quotes
    My understanding is that the PA list is... unhelpful... It lists county's, but the counting is organised by the districts and so if 4 of 5 districts are counting overnight, but the 5th is in the morning the PA list will show the last time. I think that there are more counting overnight than you would think from the list basically.
    :o
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    MTimT said:

    show previous quotes
    4 out of 6 but 3 of those were good guesses

    2 out of 6.

    4 of those were bad guesses.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    Lennon said:

    show previous quotes
    My understanding is that the PA list is... unhelpful... It lists county's, but the counting is organised by the districts and so if 4 of 5 districts are counting overnight, but the 5th is in the morning the PA list will show the last time. I think that there are more counting overnight than you would think from the list basically.
    Ah, that's useful to know, although it not going to stop me from getting a good night's sleep!
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    Lennon said:

    show previous quotes
    My understanding is that the PA list is... unhelpful... It lists county's, but the counting is organised by the districts and so if 4 of 5 districts are counting overnight, but the 5th is in the morning the PA list will show the last time. I think that there are more counting overnight than you would think from the list basically.

    Copied into a Google sheet and ordered in time order...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXr0kgrQmlQWve6KfUM9LOtsjP18_2bzj38wdYEvaCA/edit?usp=sharing

    (let me know if there are any errors)
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,950
    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT:

    show previous quotes
    That's the one saving grace for Labour.

    24 million people according to original CBO score won't have health insurance....wow. And now with the amendment re pre-existing conditions....

    Apparently, it's unlikely that the bill in its current form will pass the Senate. Seems as though Team Trump are just looking to say they 'passed' something. They don't actually care what's in it, they just want to say they passed it. How sad.

    In regard to voter suppression, the worst affected will be Trump country - older, white, working-class voters voted for Trump big time, and a lot of them are on Obamacare. Presumably, they believed Trump's promises in regard to pre-existing conditions during the election. So I wonder how they'd manage to stop Trump's own base from voting, as it won't just be minorities who get badly affected from this legislation. Increasingly, polls are showing that more Americans are open to single payer. I wonder if this legislation will shift the healthcare debate in the US more in that direction.

    @Beverley_C Yeah, I'm not surprised by the content of that link. Pro-life when it's fetus, or in cases of euthanasia - Republicans embrace a very narrow definition of 'pro-life'. How this healthcare bill is 'pro-life' only God knows.

    @Ishmael_Z The Westboro Bapist Church. Awful. Too many of those types define Christianity by how much hate they can spread. I think Louis Theroux did a documentary on them.
    Re. the proposed US Healthcare reform, is it right that Congress have added an exemption for their own members regarding pre-existing conditions? If so, that's your periodic reminder that the GOP are just as ***ntish as their tangerine president.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    edited May 2017
    From a seats perspective, 2013 was actually remarkably OK for the LDs, with them only losing a quarter of the seats the seats they stood in. (Indeed, I suspect 2013 was one of the reasons they were too confident going into the 2015 elections.)

    Because of how efficient their vote was in 2013, and because of the fact that most of the seats they will be fighting this time around will be against Conservative challengers, I wouldn't expect a big increase in LD seats.

    My guess (and it's just a guess) is that in England they'll inch up from 352 to 375-380.

    UKIP will be absolutely hammered, and I'd be surprised if they held onto more than a dozen of the 147 they won last time around.

    I suspect Labour will drop around 100-150 seats.

    So: Con +225, LD + 25, Lab -125, UKIP -125

    Something like that.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Pakistan now 36-7 against the Windies. Must be a wicked wicket.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all. – Civic duty done, on the quiet side altough about normal turnout for the locals.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Theuniondivvie said:



    Re. the proposed US Healthcare reform, is it right that Congress have added an exemption for their own members regarding pre-existing conditions? If so, that's your periodic reminder that the GOP are just as ***ntish as their tangerine president.

    Both parties give themselves superb healthcare that will never be available to their voters. Perhaps the only way the US will get a good healthcare system is if a constitutional amendment is passed requiring that members of congress and the Administration get the same healthcare options as Jo Schmo.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    rottenborough said:

    show previous quotes
    Eoin Clarke‏ @LabourEoin 42m42 minutes ago

    Jeremy with his cat El Gato. Theresa May by her own admission says No.10's Larry The Cat has never came into her office. Cats know things
    Yes cats know, deep down, that they are loathsome vermin.
  • Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438
    I voted at about 5:15pm. No other voters at all entered, left or were present during the time I was in the polling station. Not that I was in there long, of course.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Because of the woeful coverage this year I have decided to dust off my local elections spreadsheet from a few years ago for the English councils. Hopefully will be able to keep it up to date in real time, apart from a few hours for sleep! As you can see we are 18/2386 (or 0.75%) of the way there!

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    I'm on the fence about adding Wales, but Scotland is out of the question given (what I think are) significant boundary change which makes it difficult to calculate who won what ward of who without access to notional results (there are a few of those in England too, so I have just guesstimated those Councils for now).
    Rob,

    That's an amazing spread sheet! thanks for making it available for all.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,994
    SeanT said:

    I've just realised how much we are going to miss Her Majesty and the Duke of E, when they are really gone.

    The Queen has basically been around - a source of stability and reassurance in a changing world - for as long as any one alive can remember. Say "The Queen" in most countries, and people think of her. She is one of the most famous people on the planet. She is the national mother.

    I expect major league grief when she goes. It will be quite a rupture. Even Republicans might get a bit wobbly-chinned.

    I'm with you on that one, even though I don't mind Charles. Funnily enough making too much of a fuss or getting visibly emotional would be a bit out of keeping with the public persona she has maintained for so long.

    I believe the Germans have a word for Her Majesty which is separate to queens generally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    edited May 2017
    Theuniondivvie said:

    show previous quotes
    Re. the proposed US Healthcare reform, is it right that Congress have added an exemption for their own members regarding pre-existing conditions? If so, that's your periodic reminder that the GOP are just as ***ntish as their tangerine president.
    That's a problem affecting politicians of many different sides and in many jurisdictions, that they vote to exempt themselves from rules they impose on others. Not good for democracy, nor for the image of politicians in general.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,994
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Because of the woeful coverage this year I have decided to dust off my local elections spreadsheet from a few years ago for the English councils. Hopefully will be able to keep it up to date in real time, apart from a few hours for sleep! As you can see we are 18/2386 (or 0.75%) of the way there!

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl
    You, sir, are a god among men.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    BigRich said:

    show previous quotes
    Rob,

    That's an amazing spread sheet! thanks for making it available for all.
    It'll be far easier than last time I did it in 2014 when there were 161 councils up for grabs... :o
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,021
    SeanT said:

    I've just realised how much we are going to miss Her Majesty and the Duke of E, when they are really gone.

    The Queen has basically been around - a source of stability and reassurance in a changing world - for as long as any one alive can remember. Say "The Queen" in most countries, and people think of her. She is one of the most famous people on the planet. She is the national mother.

    I expect major league grief when she goes. It will be quite a rupture. Even Republicans might get a bit wobbly-chinned.

    The most amazing fact to come out of today's Royal story - the Queen and the DoE will celebrate their seventieth wedding anniversary later this year. Seventieth.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    matt said:

    show previous quotes
    Yes cats know, deep down, that they are loathsome vermin.
    Don't insult cats please.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,994
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    Oh dear

    @prospect_uk: Half of Lib Dem voters prefer May to Corbyn. The problems with a "progressive alliance": https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/a-progressive-alliance-wouldnt-work-greens-labour https://twitter.com/prospect_uk/status/860172170575720450/photo/1

    Not the only problem, as it notes. It is a bafflingly popular idea among a subset of the anti-Tory vote, which as someone who has never voted Tory (beyond a second preference in a PCC vote once) I find troubling, even disturbing in some instances, and I applaud those in Labour, LDs and beyond who shoot the idea down, for all it is superficially attractive and in specific instances can achieve a result. But having once seen a very respectable Labour figure talk about the LDs basically betraying Labour by standing in a constituency they had no hope in, as though the LDs have no right to do it, any move to talk against it is good.
    MarkHopkins said:

    show previous quotes

    Copied into a Google sheet and ordered in time order...

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gXr0kgrQmlQWve6KfUM9LOtsjP18_2bzj38wdYEvaCA/edit?usp=sharing

    (let me know if there are any errors)
    Another good citizen, thanks!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gallowgate said:

    I work in County Durham and hardly anyone I've spoken to is even aware there's an election today.

    Don't they receive a polling card through the post like everyone else?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Because of the woeful coverage this year I have decided to dust off my local elections spreadsheet from a few years ago for the English councils. Hopefully will be able to keep it up to date in real time, apart from a few hours for sleep! As you can see we are 18/2386 (or 0.75%) of the way there!

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    I'm on the fence about adding Wales, but Scotland is out of the question given (what I think are) significant boundary change which makes it difficult to calculate who won what ward of who without access to notional results (there are a few of those in England too, so I have just guesstimated those Councils for now).
    That is superb.

    Is Cambridgeshire right? If it is, that's a phenomenal coincidence with the parties grouped alphabetically by ward...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    Pulpstar said:

    Natascha Engel has fallen foul of the local anti-fracking pressure group. That was probably her last chance to be perfectly honest.

    Also my local single issue facebook campaign...

    What's wrong with fracking? We can stop messing around with the Middle East we don't need their oil,and gas as we did.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,892
    AndyJS said:

    show previous quotes
    Don't they receive a polling card through the post like everyone else?
    A lot of confusion between this and the general election it seems.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Because of the woeful coverage this year I have decided to dust off my local elections spreadsheet from a few years ago for the English councils. Hopefully will be able to keep it up to date in real time, apart from a few hours for sleep! As you can see we are 18/2386 (or 0.75%) of the way there!

    https://goo.gl/uzcozl

    I'm on the fence about adding Wales, but Scotland is out of the question given (what I think are) significant boundary change which makes it difficult to calculate who won what ward of who without access to notional results (there are a few of those in England too, so I have just guesstimated those Councils for now).
    Some English councils have new boundaries too , my estimate is that changes from 2013 would be

    Con - 10 seats
    Lab -4 seats
    LDem - 5 seats
    UKIP -5 seats
    Ind/Others - 1 seat
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,240
    kle4 said:

    show previous quotes
    I'm with you on that one, even though I don't mind Charles. Funnily enough making too much of a fuss or getting visibly emotional would be a bit out of keeping with the public persona she has maintained for so long.

    I believe the Germans have a word for Her Majesty which is separate to queens generally.
    The Thais went into lockdown last year when their long-reigning King died.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    edited May 2017
    ThreeQuidder said:

    show previous quotes
    That is superb.

    Is Cambridgeshire right? If it is, that's a phenomenal coincidence with the parties grouped alphabetically by ward...
    Yeah, those with red tabs I just put them in ranked order since I don't have ward-by-ward notional results. When the results come in I'll rejig the 2013 notional results to minimse the number of seats that change hand.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Looking on Sky, there doesn't seem to be any planned special coverage for the Local elections this year....

    They will be covering the local elections but not as part of a special programme.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    MarkSenior said:

    show previous quotes
    Some English councils have new boundaries too , my estimate is that changes from 2013 would be

    Con - 10 seats
    Lab -4 seats
    LDem - 5 seats
    UKIP -5 seats
    Ind/Others - 1 seat
    Thanks. I was really lazy and just assumed it was seats at last election * (size of new council / size of old council) :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    ThreeQuidder said:

    show previous quotes
    That is superb.

    Is Cambridgeshire right? If it is, that's a phenomenal coincidence with the parties grouped alphabetically by ward...
    It is not correct. Abbey ward in Cambridge was held by Labour in 2013, not Con.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    rcs1000 said:

    show previous quotes
    It is not correct. Abbey ward in Cambridge was held by Labour in 2013, not Con.
    Ah, see my post below about those with boundary changes.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    ThreeQuidder said:

    show previous quotes
    That is superb.

    Is Cambridgeshire right? If it is, that's a phenomenal coincidence with the parties grouped alphabetically by ward...
    No it is incorrect , Castle , Cherry Hinton and Coleridge are all in Cambridge where the Conservatives have no seats at all . Have not checked any others .
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Yeah, those with red tabs I just put them in ranked order since I don't have ward-by-ward notional results. When the results come in I'll rejig the 2013 notional results to minimse the number of seats that change hand.
    Ah, right, I get it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,999
    notme said:

    show previous quotes
    What's wrong with fracking? We can stop messing around with the Middle East we don't need their oil,and gas as we did.
    Here's a starter for ten

    http://www.environmentamerica.org/sites/environment/files/reports/Fracking by the Numbers vUS.pdf

    You have no need to worry though, Javid is waving through all INEOS' applications if councils reject them.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    MarkSenior said:

    show previous quotes
    No it is incorrect , Castle , Cherry Hinton and Coleridge are all in Cambridge where the Conservatives have no seats at all . Have not checked any others .
    As I said... the tab is red for a reason :p
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    I think it's going to be a bad night for "vacant"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,994
    Any chance of LDs holding more of these English seats than Lab? Would mean a very bad night for Lab, presumably.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    just voted - not very busy at all. Wife reported earlier that voting this morning was "steady"

    one of local lib dems knocking on doors trying to get vote out - no sign of anybody else.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    As I said... the tab is red for a reason :p
    Boundary changes in Hants as you say but they are not complicated . New Forest loses 1 Conservative seat , Eastleigh gains 1 Lib Dem seat and Bedhampton/Leigh Park double member seat split into 2 single member seats .
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    @Sunil_Prasannan Won't be around much longer tonight & just want to wish you & your family well for tomorrow. Hope all goes smoothly.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    MarkSenior said:

    show previous quotes
    Boundary changes in Hants as you say but they are not complicated . New Forest loses 1 Conservative seat , Eastleigh gains 1 Lib Dem seat and Bedhampton/Leigh Park double member seat split into 2 single member seats .
    OK, Let me add those numbers! The size of that council didn't change, so I'll just flip one CON ward to the LDs on the notional figures.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,305
    Bolton East Tory steps down, was she pushed, or did she jump?

    http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/15265587.UPDATE__Tory_candidate_in_target_seat_stands_down_due_to_personal_reasons/
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    OK, Let me add those numbers! The size of that council didn't change, so I'll just flip one CON ward to the LDs on the notional figures.
    Some councils are more complex , Cambridgeshire loses 8 seats , I calculate Con 4 LD 2 Lab and UKIP 1 each , West Sussex is easy 1 seat fewer and the losing party clearly UKIP .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,808
    kle4 said:

    Any chance of LDs holding more of these English seats than Lab? Would mean a very bad night for Lab, presumably.

    I think that's almost inevitable, given the nature of the seats being contested.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Independent: "it was remarkable to see how easily the energetic and smart Marine Le Pen was demolished by the inherently insipid Emmanuel Macron". Guardian: "Macron hailed as winner of bruising Le Pen TV debate".

    Clearly, the world applauds Macron's defeat of Le Pen using his superior debating skills. Or something. Le Monde plays a different angle:

    "Macron et l’évasion fiscale : itinéraire d’une rumeur, de 4chan aux plateaux télé"

    ("Macron and tax evasion: progress of a rumour, from 4chan to our TV sets. The candidate for En Marche! has submitted a complaint after the publication on the internet of documents purporting to show that he has a bank account in the Bahamas.")

    Which is not to say they're backing Le Pen. Quite the contrary: they have a front page headline pushing Macron's main message in last night's debate: that Le Pen tells lies: "Marine Le Pen: Strategy of a Lie".

    In another article they list the 19 "intoxes" she used in the debate: 19 poisonous lies she hurled at that innocent nice looking man from Rothschilds.

    Tomorrow is the last day for the publication of opinion polls.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Pulpstar said:

    show previous quotes
    Here's a starter for ten

    http://www.environmentamerica.org/sites/environment/files/reports/Fracking by the Numbers vUS.pdf

    You have no need to worry though, Javid is waving through all INEOS' applications if councils reject them.
    I thought people here tended to check the reliability of their sources - or are Remoaners.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,281
    MarkSenior said:

    show previous quotes
    Some councils are more complex , Cambridgeshire loses 8 seats , I calculate Con 4 LD 2 Lab and UKIP 1 each , West Sussex is easy 1 seat fewer and the losing party clearly UKIP .
    Yeah, I could have spent hours looking over the old/new wards to work out a better guess for the results, but I thought bugger that! What I will do is make sure my notional numbers add up to the same as the BBC's in those councils, but I need to wait for their results page to go live.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    dr_spyn said:

    Bolton East Tory steps down, was she pushed, or did she jump?

    http://www.theboltonnews.co.uk/news/15265587.UPDATE__Tory_candidate_in_target_seat_stands_down_due_to_personal_reasons/

    "Vacant" gains Bolton East.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    The_Apocalypse said:

    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.

    Calling the Trump/Republican plans for Healthcare 'free market' is like calling a Pork Pie Vegetarian food because it has pasty round the out side!

    The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.

    I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    RobD said:

    show previous quotes
    Yeah, I could have spent hours looking over the old/new wards to work out a better guess for the results, but I thought bugger that! What I will do is make sure my notional numbers add up to the same as the BBC's in those councils, but I need to wait for their results page to go live.
    I expect as usual the BBC will cop out and just say Boundary Changes instead of calculating gains and losses for those councils . I know R and T have done so and FWIW so have I .
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited May 2017
    Sandpit said:

    show previous quotes
    The most amazing fact to come out of today's Royal story - the Queen and the DoE will celebrate their seventieth wedding anniversary later this year. Seventieth.
    In other news, parents of triplets born earlier today saluted the wise and benevolent rule of comrade Enver Hoxha, the source of stability and an iconic example for us all.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,107
    rcs1000 said:

    show previous quotes
    I think that's almost inevitable, given the nature of the seats being contested.
    That shouldn't matter in terms of gains and losses though?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    show previous quotes
    I think that's almost inevitable, given the nature of the seats being contested.
    Not sure about that. Remember the great Stephen Fisher is projecting net local election LOSSES for the LDs

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    is there a local election exit poll?
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    SeanT said:

    I've just realised how much we are going to miss Her Majesty and the Duke of E, when they are really gone.

    The Queen has basically been around - a source of stability and reassurance in a changing world - for as long as any one alive can remember. Say "The Queen" in most countries, and people think of her. She is one of the most famous people on the planet. She is the national mother.

    I expect major league grief when she goes. It will be quite a rupture. Even Republicans might get a bit wobbly-chinned.

    Have to agree, they will be greatly missed. I had the great pleasure of meeting the Queen and the Duke at Buck Palace, the Duke later came and talked with me and friends for a short while.
    Better still was Princess Anne, she also came and socialised with us, she was very down to earth, but all good things come to an end, along came Gordo who was glad handing everyone and was very dismissive when I tried to discuss matters with him.
    I was never particularly a Royalist, but they do a fantastic job, and will be sorely missed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,994
    I've already got the excuse ready if my own local predictions don't work out - GE announcement messed things up.
This discussion has been closed.