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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s battle grounds – the seats that are being defended

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    kle4 said:

    West of England Mayor declaring first out of the mayor races. Will be interesting to see the Labour trend there - Corbyn is still pretty popular in Bristol at least, I hear.

    It's a few years since I lived in Bristol (Downend) but I'm thinking terminal apathy is the most likely winner there, which would surely favour the Conservatives.

    The interesting question may be how well the Greens do. I could see them coming second if Labour have a poor night.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Another 10 hour day. Any French polling?

    Afraid Sean hasn't been around to tell us about his latest exploits.

    Oh, the election..... :p

    Looks like a couple of new ones 61/39 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
    Dirty sleazy FN on the slide!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    My favourite comment was the Ecksian political system.

    'Do you always put your politicians in prison when they're elected?'

    'Yeah.'

    'Why?'

    'Because it saves time.'
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145

    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Another 10 hour day. Any French polling?

    Afraid Sean hasn't been around to tell us about his latest exploits.

    Oh, the election..... :p

    Looks like a couple of new ones 61/39 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017
    Dirty sleazy FN on the slide!
    Margin of error ;)
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,944
    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Any idea of Prof Cox's politics? Can he knife Corbyn with some sort of intergalactic super weapon??

    I think he's an arch remainer.
    Like I said - evidence based policies ;-)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Professor Brian Cox has said he "might be forced" into politics as the country needs a "visionary leader" ... run. Please. Do it. Please run

    @LadPolitics: @MrHarryCole 100/1 to be PM before 2030

    Unlike everyone in Labour, at least the Prof has an understanding of Very Big Numbers.....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MrHarryCole: Professor Brian Cox has said he "might be forced" into politics as the country needs a "visionary leader" ... run. Please. Do it. Please run

    He's a fairly likable guy, maybe he'd be fine.
    Ok, but we know already what his views are going to be. People that actually have to go out into the real world and do tangible stuff in order to live somehow have an epiphany, where reality strikes. We all know this happens.

    There are no circumstances whatsoever that I will ever trust the views of anyone that hasn't had to slog it out in the real world for a while as to how our country should be governed. Sadly this includes really quite a big number of those that are actually in charge.

    I don't want to see Brian Cox become political, what I'd love to see is that we enable him to expand our nation. I think it was Pulpstar that mentioned O'Neill wheels this morning - go and do that for the UK Brian.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BigRich said:

    I like Dan Hanna's Quote.

    Its possible to Love football and hate FIFA, Just as it possible to Love Europe and hate the EU.

    It's spectacularly dumb

    England would win the World Cup if only we left FIFA...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    BigRich said:

    I like Dan Hanna's Quote.

    Its possible to Love football and hate FIFA, Just as it possible to Love Europe and hate the EU.

    It's spectacularly dumb

    England would win the World Cup if only we left FIFA...
    That you've extended the analogy to make it stupid doesn't mean the bit he said was stupid. It is possible to like football and hate Fifa, it is possible to love Europe but hate the EU (though personally I was just frustrated and disappointed in it)- the response to hating each could be different because it's just an analogy, of course you can respond differently to each because they're not the same.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    justin124 said:

    Omnium said:

    justin124 said:

    Voting Green tonight in a straight green v labour fist fight in Clive Lewis territory

    But the Tories have a candidate in every ward in Norwich South!
    In Norwich the anti Labour vote in Council elections is Green. I've just done the same here in Heigham Ward.
    Norwich South is I think the most interesting seat in GE2017. They have a (in some ways) poor Labour MP, but they've not elected a Conservative since 1983, and that was because of a split vote, so it's back to 1970 really.

    This time round it really is within the Tories reach again in my view.
    I expect Clive Lewis to win again in Norwich South. Chloe will win Norwich North with a comfortable majority.
    As the polls currently stand, Norwich South has to be at risk for Labour. In 1983 Labour's John Garrett lost by 1700 votes in the context of a national Tory lead of 15%. Moreover, Labour only very narrowly won it back by 330 in 1987. Having said that , I get the impression that Lewis will benefit from tactical voting from Green supporters.
    I expect the left vote will coalesce around Lewis who is a popular figure. Lots of Green and Lib Dem votes to sweep up and Tories some way behind. Haven't seen a Tory poster yet but Labour number in the hundreds, quite a few Green and a smattering of Lib Dem. Unless the left vote splits badly I think Lewis will hang on.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726

    BigRich said:

    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.

    Calling the Trump/Republican plans for Healthcare 'free market' is like calling a Pork Pie Vegetarian food because it has pasty round the out side!

    The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.

    I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
    So you don't like it either then!

    Re Candian system being more free-market than America, a lot of American Conservatives on Twitter seem to see it as socialist.

    I guess in regards to free market, I'm used to NHS, and the security of not worrying about access to healthcare because the state provides it. I see a free market system has bringing uncertainty in regards to whether you will be able to get treatment.
    There is no contradiction between 'free at the point of delivery' and 'free market'. Most European countries have extensive private provision in their health care systems whilst still maintaining a free at the point of delivery system. And indeed most of those systems are considerably better than the NHS at keeping people alive and keeping them healthy.
    Yep, there is much that we should copy and emulate that is done in Europe.

    Reasonably busy at Leics polling station this evening for a locals.
    Agree entirely. Love Europe, hate the EU. :wink:
    In theory is there any form of European political confederation that you would support?
    No. I believe in decentralising powers not centralising them. If you work on the basis that all power should derive from the people and only those things which cannot be done at the lowest possible level should be delegated to a higher level then a European confederation really has no purpose. It can do nothing that cannot be done by the Nation States.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Disraeli said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting — apparently Labour's campaign organiser is doing an interview at 1am, just 3 hours after the polls close. Seems a bit early.

    "I have just received the figures from Diane Abbot. She reports that in both of the three councils that she looked we were ahead in four. In the other 6 we were neck-and-neck. In the ten councils where we hope to gain seats we are ahead in five, behind in seven and even in twelve."
    LOL
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    kle4 said:

    That you've extended the analogy to make it stupid doesn't mean the bit he said was stupid.

    The bit he said being stupid was what made it stupid
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,253
    Thanks. 6pm tomorrow for West Midlands mayor?!

    Sloppy.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    Didn't the Klatchians vote that they didn't have to pay taxes at one point? The Patrician remarked about it in one book.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,856

    BigRich said:

    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.

    Calling the Trump/Republican plans for Healthcare 'free market' is like calling a Pork Pie Vegetarian food because it has pasty round the out side!

    The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.

    I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
    So you don't like it either then!

    Re Candian system being more free-market than America, a lot of American Conservatives on Twitter seem to see it as socialist.

    I guess in regards to free market, I'm used to NHS, and the security of not worrying about access to healthcare because the state provides it. I see a free market system has bringing uncertainty in regards to whether you will be able to get treatment.
    There is no contradiction between 'free at the point of delivery' and 'free market'. Most European countries have extensive private provision in their health care systems whilst still maintaining a free at the point of delivery system. And indeed most of those systems are considerably better than the NHS at keeping people alive and keeping them healthy.
    Yep, there is much that we should copy and emulate that is done in Europe.

    Reasonably busy at Leics polling station this evening for a locals.
    Agree entirely. Love Europe, hate the EU. :wink:
    In theory is there any form of European political confederation that you would support?
    No. I believe in decentralising powers not centralising them. If you work on the basis that all power should derive from the people and only those things which cannot be done at the lowest possible level should be delegated to a higher level then a European confederation really has no purpose. It can do nothing that cannot be done by the Nation States.
    Do you object to the UN Charter?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    Voted. Busier than in 2013 I believe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    kle4 said:

    That you've extended the analogy to make it stupid doesn't mean the bit he said was stupid.

    The bit he said being stupid was what made it stupid
    Then why did you make up something else as though that was the equivalent of what he said, when even if the original were stupid, your extension was actively moronic?

    It is possible to like football and hate Fifa, it is possible to love Europe but hate the EU (though personally I was just frustrated and disappointed in it)- the response to hating each could be different because it's just an analogy, of course you can respond differently to each because they're not the same.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    BigRich said:

    Alistair said:

    BigRich said:

    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.

    Calling the Trump/Republican plans for Healthcare 'free market' is like calling a Pork Pie Vegetarian food because it has pasty round the out side!

    The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.

    I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
    Healthcare is not, and can never be, a free market. You can't comparison shop care providers when our unconscious and bleeding out from a car accident.
    You may not like it, but in most of the developed world the, market forces play a much bigger role than they do in this nation, and unsurprisingly get much better results.
    We spend less than most of the developed world on health care.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636
    dixiedean said:

    Voted. Busier than in 2013 I believe.

    Is your ward a solid Labour one or more Tory tho
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636

    Thanks. 6pm tomorrow for West Midlands mayor?!

    Sloppy.
    I've told my Dad to focus on the Cov NW ward counts, I'm convinced that's the bellwether for the entire mayoralty.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017
    HaroldO said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    Didn't the Klatchians vote that they didn't have to pay taxes at one point? The Patrician remarked about it in one book.
    No, it was one of the cities on the Sto Plains, Pseudopolis or Sto Lat perhaps.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    HaroldO said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    Didn't the Klatchians vote that they didn't have to pay taxes at one point? The Patrician remarked about it in one book.
    Not the Klatchians - the Pseudopolisians. If indeed Pratchett did write Unseen Acamdeicals, which I must confess I have my doubts about.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    kle4 said:

    Scotland better not fail to follow through with the SCON surge after all this teasing - picture the PB Tory faces, all distraught.

    Ruth cleverly primed a massive surge by leading SCon to a spectacularly awful 2012 showing. A mere 13% of the vote, reversing 15 years of consistent gain under previous leaders.

    Even modest success would be a massive surge.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,536
    Floater said:

    Disraeli said:

    AndyJS said:

    Interesting — apparently Labour's campaign organiser is doing an interview at 1am, just 3 hours after the polls close. Seems a bit early.

    "I have just received the figures from Diane Abbot. She reports that in both of the three councils that she looked we were ahead in four. In the other 6 we were neck-and-neck. In the ten councils where we hope to gain seats we are ahead in five, behind in seven and even in twelve."
    LOL
    Ha, ha. LOL. But, iirc, Abbott was out by orders of magnitude, rather than small numbers. So, more like:

    "Of the ten thousand councils we are targeting tonight, nearly nine thousand are going to fall to us. This puts Labour on target to retain at least thirty thousands seats at the general election and have a majority of well over a million in Parliament, when it is recalled on the 34th of June."

  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    HaroldO said:

    When people were on about Juncker being a drunk yesterday, I thought it was just bitterness...but I stumbled across this and realise people weren't kidding; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

    Was he over wrought and tired, or just tired and emotional like George Brown?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,856
    @MonikerDiCanio 's favourite writer Fintan O'Toole has a piece in the Guardian about the EU's backing of a united Ireland.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/may/04/eu-irish-unity-brexit-europe-northern-ireland

    This is a very big deal. It suggests at one level that Brexit really does mean Brexit – in the very literal sense that the entity that is exiting is Great Britain and not the United Kingdom.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited May 2017

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
    Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,158
    edited May 2017
    HaroldO said:

    When people were on about Juncker being a drunk yesterday, I thought it was just bitterness...but I stumbled across this and realise people weren't kidding; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU

    It was the members of the European Council nicknamed him Druncker, not the media. He has a problem. That is why I said that anything discussed with him over dinner will probably be forgotten or remembered wrongly. Of course, it does beg the question of why it wasn't a proper meeting rather than a meal. Frankly, that in itself suggests either Theresa May was hoping to shaft him (my autocorrect turned that into 'shag!' :hushed:) or that she has rather poor judgment - neither being a reassuring thought.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Link s'il vous plaît.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2017

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    no - it's because he's a [moderated] [definitely moderated]!!!!!!

    as per this spurs legend.

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738774636568580
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Time will tell if Macron has the substance France needs, but if that poll pans out, in addition to his expected win this weekend, then he has had a very impressive entry into electoral politics.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    no - it's because he's a [moderated]

    as per this spurs legend.

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738774636568580
    Move on and stop being so bitter.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    dixiedean said:

    Voted. Busier than in 2013 I believe.

    Yes, my polling station was a bit busier than normal for a local - I wonder if anyone turned out thinking it was the GE?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    philiph said:

    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.

    OGH tweeted that he was so amused....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356
    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
  • kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
    Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
    Banks said he killed every one off in the book because he did not want to do another sci fi novel. . Excision is a great Sci Fi novel. Use of weapons is also excellent. The splitters do turn up in other books
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Link s'il vous plaît.
    Its on the Europe Elects twitter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    I know several people, including those who've spent time in France (but with little political interest) automatically assuming Le Pen will win because 'Trump'. So I can well believe it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Link s'il vous plaît.
    Its on the Europe Elects twitter.
    Cheers.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    no - it's because he's a [moderated]

    as per this spurs legend.

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738774636568580
    Move on and stop being so bitter.
    I am not alone...

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738286042075136

    https://twitter.com/talkSPORTDrive/status/859782542957924352
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,856
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    I know several people, including those who've spent time in France (but with little political interest) automatically assuming Le Pen will win because 'Trump'. So I can well believe it.
    Which means we shouldn't underestimate the impact of a convincing Macron victory. It will be a real setback for the alt-right/Kremlin who have made her Le Pen their latest champion.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726


    Do you object to the UN Charter?

    No. It is an agreement limited by treaty which confers no further powers upon the organisation than are stated in the treaty. It cannot be self amending nor can it accrue more powers without the agreement of the members. All of that is in contrast to the EU.


  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    Alistair said:

    BigRich said:

    Alistair said:

    BigRich said:

    @MTimT What do you think of the GOP's healthcare plan? As well as their belief that healthcare should be a free-market thing?

    I don't get their thinking at all.

    Calling the Trump/Republican plans for Healthcare 'free market' is like calling a Pork Pie Vegetarian food because it has pasty round the out side!

    The Republicans have got confused between being Pro-Market and Pro-Business, to be fair most politicians end up being Pro-special interest of some sort.

    I passionately believe the that the a more free market approach would provide better, perhaps much better healthcare and health outcomes for more people and lower cost, to them and the taxpayer. I may be wrong, I know that, you may disagree with me, and I would l like to hear your reasons for doing so. But please, Please don't pretend that US healthcare is particular free market, its not the Canadian system for instance is much more free market, and the Singaporean system even more so.
    Healthcare is not, and can never be, a free market. You can't comparison shop care providers when our unconscious and bleeding out from a car accident.
    You may not like it, but in most of the developed world the, market forces play a much bigger role than they do in this nation, and unsurprisingly get much better results.
    We spend less than most of the developed world on health care.
    ish, we spend less than many, but a lot more that Singapore for example. which has much better outcomes including longer life.

    When compered to our close EU nations, France, Netherlands and Germany, we spend slightly less but get more than proportionately less good healthcare.

    I like my health and that Of my family, I don't object to paying for it, or even paying more for it. But whatever we do spend I would like to be spent as efficiently as possible.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Elections are clearly a good way of testing public opinion but experience has shown that they could be improved by adopting an opinion poll technique and "weight" the votes of university lecturers, Goldman Sachs employees, television comedians and actors, London penthouse dwellers and wealthy owners of European property so that the right decisions can be made more often.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    Corbyn's more likely to be PM than Le Pen winning isn't he ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,039
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
    Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
    "Excession". The best 'not our world' novel ever in my view. Read your way through though.

  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.

    OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    I know several people, including those who've spent time in France (but with little political interest) automatically assuming Le Pen will win because 'Trump'. So I can well believe it.
    Betfair can be way too reactive.

    I still remember on GE2015 night, Con increased their majority in Nuneaton, but Sky/BBC/ITV still had 'Hung Parliament' on their screens, the Tories were close to 2/1 to win a majority on Betfair.

    Absolute free money.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Elections are clearly a good way of testing public opinion but experience has shown that they could be improved by adopting an opinion poll technique and "weight" the votes of university lecturers, Goldman Sachs employees, television comedians and actors, London penthouse dwellers and wealthy owners of European property so that the right decisions can be made more often.

    Love it.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    BigRich said:

    I like Dan Hanna's Quote.

    Its possible to Love football and hate FIFA, Just as it possible to Love Europe and hate the EU.

    It's spectacularly dumb

    England would win the World Cup if only we left FIFA...
    That you've extended the analogy to make it stupid doesn't mean the bit he said was stupid. It is possible to like football and hate Fifa, it is possible to love Europe but hate the EU (though personally I was just frustrated and disappointed in it)- the response to hating each could be different because it's just an analogy, of course you can respond differently to each because they're not the same.
    Scott really is too blinkered to understand the ideas you are trying to express.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    philiph said:

    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.

    Guffaw. Quite so.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,356

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    no - it's because he's a [moderated]

    as per this spurs legend.

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738774636568580
    Move on and stop being so bitter.
    I am not alone...

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738286042075136

    https://twitter.com/talkSPORTDrive/status/859782542957924352
    Seriously when are Spurs fans going to get a better opportunity to lob a bottle of piss at Sol Campbell?

    Think about the bigger picture.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Link s'il vous plaît.
    Its on the Europe Elects twitter.
    Cheers.
    En Marche 2.5 on BFX for largest party. Worth a dabble.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Disraeli said:

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.

    OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
    The Spurs captain.... and went on a free.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    Corbyn's more likely to be PM than Le Pen winning isn't he ?
    But Corbyn's also more likely to be French President than PM!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    no - it's because he's a [moderated]

    as per this spurs legend.

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738774636568580
    Move on and stop being so bitter.
    I am not alone...

    https://twitter.com/GrahamRoberts4/status/859738286042075136

    https://twitter.com/talkSPORTDrive/status/859782542957924352
    Seriously when are Spurs fans going to get a better opportunity to lob a bottle of piss at Sol Campbell?

    Think about the bigger picture.
    LOL
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Well, lets hope so.
    The worst possible outcome is a President wanting to carry out needed reforms being thwarted by a hostile assembly.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,284
    Disraeli said:

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.

    OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
    Double Double Double!

    :D:D:D
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    I know several people, including those who've spent time in France (but with little political interest) automatically assuming Le Pen will win because 'Trump'. So I can well believe it.
    Which means we shouldn't underestimate the impact of a convincing Macron victory. It will be a real setback for the alt-right/Kremlin who have made her Le Pen their latest champion.
    The alt right will largely behave in the way I expect the Corbynites to do after a bitter defeat next month.

    Smear the winning candidate as being part of the establishment, allude to their collusion with bankers (sadly, for much of the alt right, for bankers, read jews), claim the system is rigged, the mainstream media is corrupt, broken, in the pockets of x, y, z and so on.

    Seeing how the alt right are _already_ shaping their narrative knowing that Le Pen is going to be defeated makes me think for much the same reasons Corbyn will stay on.

    Having said that, I did stick a few quid on Stephen Kinnock as next Labour leader at 33/1. But I'm a Battlestar Galactica fan. All this has happened before, and all this will happen again...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Despite knowing nothing about French politics and betting pocket change I will make £70 on this French election - mostly from a well timed ride on the Melenchon train, on @34, off @10
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Excellent.

    Earphones in when I go to bed...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    I know several people, including those who've spent time in France (but with little political interest) automatically assuming Le Pen will win because 'Trump'. So I can well believe it.
    Is it the fear of mass protest votes from the far left? I think Melenchon has NOT explicity said he will vote for Macron. Just that he won't vote for her.

    Still thinking about the "two women will be president" line from Le Pen. LOL.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Chortle.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Does anybody know: With En Marche being a new party, are its candidates defects from other party's, or are they new to politics?
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,240
    Lib Dems sounding cautiously upbeat about the locals round here. Labour retreating into fortress mentality. Tories well-drilled but not sounding like they're expecting to sweep all before them in the way that the polls would lead you to believe.

    Going to be an interesting Friday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    I hear the demand for voting today has been about as the same as morning after pill on a SAGA holiday.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2017
    I think Sky News are covering the local elections as part of their usual programmes.
  • Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
    Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
    "Excession". The best 'not our world' novel ever in my view. Read your way through though.

    The ship names are brilliant (Sleeper Service!) and the ultimate black swan event.
  • Turnout described as slow when I voted after work.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Omnium said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!

    I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
    Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
    A million dead people cannot be wrong!

    RIP Sir Pterry.
    I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
    Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
    "Excession". The best 'not our world' novel ever in my view. Read your way through though.

    The ship names are brilliant (Sleeper Service!) and the ultimate black swan event.
    No more spoilers - I've just ordered a copy.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited May 2017
    If anyone wants free money LDs are 2/7 to retain Orkney & Shetland on Ladbrokes.

    DYOR
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pulpstar said:

    Alistair said:

    Macron was 1.1/1.11 this morning. He's now 1.11/1.12

    I understand nothing.

    I think it is the Brexit/Trump syndrome.
    Corbyn's more likely to be PM than Le Pen winning isn't he ?
    I think that's true in the real world, simply because there's much more time for a black swan event.

    I don't know about the betting odds though.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106
    tlg86 said:

    Disraeli said:

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.

    OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
    Double Double Double!

    :D:D:D
    Oh! I see! One of them there Gooners, eh?

    Your not a Remainer as well are you - that would be TOO much!
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited May 2017
    BigRich said:

    Poll puts En Marche on as many as 280 Assembly seats. It may not be co-habitation at all.

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/860046035090939904

    Does anybody know: With En Marche being a new party, are its candidates defects from other party's, or are they new to politics?
    A mixture I think. En Marche claims to have over 200 000 members. Not bad for a party 13 months old.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-idUSKBN1684JE

    Talk about breaking the mold!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Also on free(ish) money you can back Le Pen to get between 35 & 45 percent of the vote at odds of 7/8. Also Ladbrokes.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Chameleon said:

    If anyone wants free money LDs are 2/7 to retain Orkney & Shetland on Ladbrokes.

    DYOR

    A good local SNP candidate. Not free money in my book.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Low turnout in Stockton on Tees. Fewer than 100 votes at my polling station in a big housing estate. Could be an interesting result
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    Chameleon said:

    If anyone wants free money LDs are 2/7 to retain Orkney & Shetland on Ladbrokes.

    DYOR

    4/9 on Betfair Sportsbook
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    bobajobPB said:

    philiph said:

    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.

    Guffaw. Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, not any more.

    If Corbyn resigns, whoever takes over is only interim.

    Which means, as @Richard_Nabavi pointed out earlier, Labour would be replacing "Vote Labour so Corbyn can be PM" with "Vote Labour so an unnamed person chosen by the people who twice chose Corbyn can be PM".

    I'm not totally convinced that this is a significant improvement.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Why the fuck do I have £20 on Labour in Wirrall South?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Alistair said:

    Why the fuck do I have £20 on Labour in Wirrall South?

    1) Maybe there were really good odds, even if it is at risk?
    2) Your finger slipped?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Wait. Wait.

    I have £20 on Labour in Wirral South @8 and they are now 1.9?

    What crazy shit was I hitting? Did someone on here tip that?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636

    Chameleon said:

    If anyone wants free money LDs are 2/7 to retain Orkney & Shetland on Ladbrokes.

    DYOR

    A good local SNP candidate. Not free money in my book.
    It's enormous, look at the Holyrood results.
  • bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042

    bobajobPB said:

    philiph said:

    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.

    Guffaw. Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, not any more.

    If Corbyn resigns, whoever takes over is only interim.

    Which means, as @Richard_Nabavi pointed out earlier, Labour would be replacing "Vote Labour so Corbyn can be PM" with "Vote Labour so an unnamed person chosen by the people who twice chose Corbyn can be PM".

    I'm not totally convinced that this is a significant improvement.
    It's a vast improvement on Corbyn.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,284
    Disraeli said:

    tlg86 said:

    Disraeli said:

    YES!!!

    I'm probably late to this but there IS someone covering election night tonight.... LBC..

    Get in.

    https://twitter.com/Vinny_LBC/status/860211927485698049

    Why are Spurs treating Sol Campbell so badly?

    Is it racism?

    http://talksport.com/football/sol-campbell-not-invited-tottenham-final-game-white-hart-lane-170503237707
    Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.

    OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
    Double Double Double!

    :D:D:D
    Oh! I see! One of them there Gooners, eh?

    Your not a Remainer as well are you - that would be TOO much!
    No, I voted leave. One of my friends who I go to football with went to Campbell's return to WHL in November 2001. He says he's never seen anything else quite like it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    bobajobPB said:

    bobajobPB said:

    philiph said:

    Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '

    Can I suggest :

    Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow.
    Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.

    Guffaw. Quite so.
    I'm not so sure, not any more.

    If Corbyn resigns, whoever takes over is only interim.

    Which means, as @Richard_Nabavi pointed out earlier, Labour would be replacing "Vote Labour so Corbyn can be PM" with "Vote Labour so an unnamed person chosen by the people who twice chose Corbyn can be PM".

    I'm not totally convinced that this is a significant improvement.
    It's a vast improvement on Corbyn.
    Not if those same ones might pick Abbott, or McDonnell!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636
    Alistair said:

    Wait. Wait.

    I have £20 on Labour in Wirral South @8 and they are now 1.9?

    What crazy shit was I hitting? Did someone on here tip that?

    27/04/2017 Single To Win
    Labour @ 7/1
    Wirral South
    UK General Election 2017 - Constituency Betting £3.18 Pending

    Paddy got high on his own supply.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Chameleon said:

    If anyone wants free money LDs are 2/7 to retain Orkney & Shetland on Ladbrokes.

    DYOR

    A good local SNP candidate. Not free money in my book.
    If they couldn't turn it at Holyrood last year, or in 2015 then they almost certainly won't turn it now.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,284
    Alistair said:

    Wait. Wait.

    I have £20 on Labour in Wirral South @8 and they are now 1.9?

    What crazy shit was I hitting? Did someone on here tip that?

    Yes, that was tipped and I put a tenner on it. On a half decent night for Labour they should hold it.
  • SaltireSaltire Posts: 525
    Lowish turnout across the city of Perth at 8pm. It could be a sign that SNP support has stayed at home since they seem to be the party most affected by low-turnout.
    Hope to have some idea of how safe or otherwise Pete Wishart is after the count tomorrow morning, the Nationalists currently have 14 out of the 27 councillors in the 8 wards that make up his seat.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,636
    7-1 on Wirral South Labour is unbelievably large even with the polling as it is. Merseyside is like ground zero for Labour
This discussion has been closed.