Despite knowing nothing about French politics and betting pocket change I will make £70 on this French election - mostly from a well timed ride on the Melenchon train, on @34, off @10
I am a beneficiary of a tip from @rcs1000 on Macron at 17/1 in the comments last November. That's another £300 to plow back into GE2017 tomorrow...
As always, thank you to everyone here for your knowledge and wit.
One of the oddest things about Arsenal fans who aren't from London (which is many of them) is why they hate Spurs. The rivalry is pretty intense if you live here, sure. Round my way pretty much everyone is one or the other. But if you are an Arsenal fan from, say, Basingstoke, why hate Spurs? Why would you care about a territorial dispute if you don't live in or are not from north London?
When people were on about Juncker being a drunk yesterday, I thought it was just bitterness...but I stumbled across this and realise people weren't kidding; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XPgiI46FCDU
It was the members of the European Council nicknamed him Druncker, not the media. He has a problem. That is why I said that anything discussed with him over dinner will probably be forgotten or remembered wrongly. Of course, it does beg the question of why it wasn't a proper meeting rather than a meal. Frankly, that in itself suggests either Theresa May was hoping to shaft him (my autocorrect turned that into 'shag!' ) or that she has rather poor judgment - neither being a reassuring thought.
I kind of assume that dinners and "proper meetings" both have an important place in diplomatic relations (though you are the historian, not me).
Difficult to say this without sounding pompous, so feck it, I'll sound pompous - if I were instructing a solicitor, accountant or whatever, and discovered that the senior partner in the practice was a Juncker-level drunk, I'd withdraw those instructions immediately on the grounds that if people can't keep their own house in order, why trust them to keep mine? Juncker is all on his own a sufficient reason for Brexit.
And please nobody say Churchill, that's an infallible way to spot a drunk on the internet and Juncker ain't no Churchill. (The other way is when wine goes up 40p in the budget and people say "ooooh but this merely penalises responsible middle class social drinkers like me, because all the alcoholics will carry on regardless").
Evening bowers, scrapers, forelock tuggers and cap doffers. You are all sycophantic cogs in the wheel of neofeudalism and barriers to enlightened meritocracy. oaf!
I think Terry Pratchett (at least via Samuel Vimes) put it thus when it comes to monarchy and power generally - whoever designed human kind included a serious design flaw; a tendency to bend at the knees.
Via Rincewind though he also said he preferred tradition to democracy, because that way, even the dead get to vote.
A million dead people cannot be wrong!
RIP Sir Pterry.
I always liked the Culture novels from Iain M Banks. They had a referendum if they should go to war or not.
Read my first Culture novel not two months ago, Consider Phlebas. As I recall a significant minority refused to accept the result of the referendum and left the Culture (because they refused to back violence in any way).
"Excession". The best 'not our world' novel ever in my view. Read your way through though.
The ship names are brilliant (Sleeper Service!) and the ultimate black swan event.
No more spoilers - I've just ordered a copy.
Non - promise. I wont spoil one of my favourite books for you.
One of the oddest things about Arsenal fans who aren't from London (which is many of them) is why they hate Spurs. The rivalry is pretty intense if you live here, sure. Round my way pretty much everyone is one or the other. But if you are an Arsenal fan from, say, Basingstoke, why hate Spurs? Why would you care about a territorial dispute if you don't live in or are not from north London?
Ask TimB (who lives in Atlanta) why, as a Cowboys fan he hates the Redskins. Or perhaps me (a Yankees fan, who lives in DC area ) why I hate the Red Sox.
The obvious reason is that the sense of tribal belonging transcends location, and hence so does the sense of 'other' (non-tribe), particularly in relation to the principal 'other' (tribe).
In short, it is about the tribes, not the locations.
Because he betrayed us to go to ..them!...you know....the other North London mob.
OK to leave for another club..but not that scum.
Double Double Double!
Oh! I see! One of them there Gooners, eh?
Your not a Remainer as well are you - that would be TOO much!
No, I voted leave. One of my friends who I go to football with went to Campbell's return to WHL in November 2001. He says he's never seen anything else quite like it.
You are forgiven! We shouldn't quarrel about religion 22 grown men kicking a ball around!
One of the oddest things about Arsenal fans who aren't from London (which is many of them) is why they hate Spurs. The rivalry is pretty intense if you live here, sure. Round my way pretty much everyone is one or the other. But if you are an Arsenal fan from, say, Basingstoke, why hate Spurs? Why would you care about a territorial dispute if you don't live in or are not from north London?
Ask TimB (who lives in Atlanta) why, as a Cowboys fan he hates the Redskins. Or perhaps me (a Yankees fan, who lives in DC area ) why I hate the Red Sox.
The obvious reason is that the sense of tribal belonging transcends location, and hence so does the sense of 'other' (non-tribe), particularly in relation to the principal 'other' (tribe).
In short, it is about the tribes, not the locations.
@Tim_B is a Cowboys fan? Methinks he has denied that on more than a few occasions...
That is not a comparable analogy at all as those teams you mention are not in the same city, nowhere near each other in fact. The north London rivalry is essentially a territorial dispute. Why would you care about that if you were an out-of-towner?
His ideas, Cut Spending, Cut Taxes, and Deregulate, without all the socially conservative nonsense normally associated with the 'right' should make a Libertarian like me happy.
But I fell bemused by him, almost cold, I'm not shore if that's because I can't see ham actually caring it out? or because I am envies of him (and France)
I expect there will eventually be headlines saying "Clinton might walk again".
Your hatred for Hillary and love of Trump is one of the most bizarre things about PB. In all other matters you seem sane. Intelligent even.
I don't hate her and I wanted her to win in 2008.
I've got a bad rep as a Trump fan really. It started out mainly as a disinterested prediction that he was going to win, and there were many aspects of his candidature that I found a breath of fresh air, despite his flaws. The fact that he defeated the entire political establishment in both US parties is still one of the most incredible achievements in electoral history.
Earlier the question was posed "What does a good / bad night for labour look like? '
Can I suggest :
Bad night. Corbyn is leader tomorrow. Good night. Corbyn resigns tomorrow.
Guffaw. Quite so.
I'm not so sure, not any more.
If Corbyn resigns, whoever takes over is only interim.
Which means, as @Richard_Nabavi pointed out earlier, Labour would be replacing "Vote Labour so Corbyn can be PM" with "Vote Labour so an unnamed person chosen by the people who twice chose Corbyn can be PM".
I'm not totally convinced that this is a significant improvement.
Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.
It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
I agree with that.
But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
His ideas, Cut Spending, Cut Taxes, and Deregulate, without all the socially conservative nonsense normally associated with the 'right' should make a Libertarian like me happy.
But I fell bemused by him, almost cold, I'm not shore if that's because I can't see ham actually caring it out? or because I am envies of him (and France)
I think that you have to allow for starting point. The French state is rather bloated, even significant shrinkage would have it bigger than us.
IMO, the real problem for En Marche is half its candidates have no experience. That means they'll get some flakey people , who get caught up in scandal, resign in a huff etc.
Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.
It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
I agree with that.
But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
Neither would receive the nominations, were Corbyn to resign (he won't however).
Nevertheless, that membership would presumably pick the worst (as I see it) candidate they could.
The big problem that the membership would have is the lack of actual possible leaders to choose from. Indeed when considering the number of Cabinet/shadow cabinet members SLab has contributed over the last 40 years looking at this years list of candidates standing in Scotland is quite shocking.
It is quite noticeable that unlike the Libdems where a number of prominent people in the 2010-15 parliament are standing again Labour, at least in Scotland, seem to have almost nobody trying to regain their seat.
Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.
It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
I agree with that.
But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
Turnout described as slow when I voted after work.
I think we vote at the same polling station - the church hall at the top of The Walk in Potters Bar.
I went in at 4.30pm - they said pretty slow but also that increasing numbers have postal votes - quite a lot of elderly in the area - so turnout is actually higher than it might appear.
Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.
It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
I agree with that.
But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
Watson would be leader, surely.
Interim, sure (unless he turned it down, in which case the NEC would pick an interim leader from the shadow cabinet). There would still be an election for a permanent leader in the autumn.
Comments
@maggieNYT: The "Clinton might run again" word among a small group of Dems began in earnest after her @camanpour intvu. Now this http://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/04/hillary-clinton-launch-political-group-237999
As always, thank you to everyone here for your knowledge and wit.
Difficult to say this without sounding pompous, so feck it, I'll sound pompous - if I were instructing a solicitor, accountant or whatever, and discovered that the senior partner in the practice was a Juncker-level drunk, I'd withdraw those instructions immediately on the grounds that if people can't keep their own house in order, why trust them to keep mine? Juncker is all on his own a sufficient reason for Brexit.
And please nobody say Churchill, that's an infallible way to spot a drunk on the internet and Juncker ain't no Churchill. (The other way is when wine goes up 40p in the budget and people say "ooooh but this merely penalises responsible middle class social drinkers like me, because all the alcoholics will carry on regardless").
The obvious reason is that the sense of tribal belonging transcends location, and hence so does the sense of 'other' (non-tribe), particularly in relation to the principal 'other' (tribe).
In short, it is about the tribes, not the locations.
Neither would receive the nominations, were Corbyn to resign (he won't however).
religion22 grown men kicking a ball around!That is not a comparable analogy at all as those teams you mention are not in the same city, nowhere near each other in fact. The north London rivalry is essentially a territorial dispute. Why would you care about that if you were an out-of-towner?
But I fell bemused by him, almost cold, I'm not shore if that's because I can't see ham actually caring it out? or because I am envies of him (and France)
I've got a bad rep as a Trump fan really. It started out mainly as a disinterested prediction that he was going to win, and there were many aspects of his candidature that I found a breath of fresh air, despite his flaws. The fact that he defeated the entire political establishment in both US parties is still one of the most incredible achievements in electoral history.
Maybe not - but all the possible candidates would be visibly better than Corbyn.
It's hypothetical anyway - he won't quit.
And with that little witticism, nos da.
But this is a fun hypothetical game to play. If he did quit, would potential leaders even declare during the GE campaign? If they did, wouldn't that mean that Labour were fighting a leadership election rather than a general election, leaving the field totally open for the Tories? It would certainly underline the "stable" message.
"Take back control".
Amongst myriad possibilities my favourite is the grammatically flawed
"Bolock trance-akt"
Should one be worried about the missing "el" there is only one.
IMO, the real problem for En Marche is half its candidates have no experience. That means they'll get some flakey people , who get caught up in scandal, resign in a huff etc.
http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/blog/entry/general-election-2017-candidates1
It is quite noticeable that unlike the Libdems where a number of prominent people in the 2010-15 parliament are standing again Labour, at least in Scotland, seem to have almost nobody trying to regain their seat.
So many do. But then they tick the safe box again and again.
the Conservatives do not have the “best interests of the seat in their hearts”.
“The Tories promise us Brexit which is great. But many people here will struggle with the brand and their other policies.
Interesting the struggle with the brand is listed first.
Hang on, I've got 66/1 on the Tories to win that seat (I think AndyJS tipped it?). Bad luck Michelle.
Had to be said.
I went in at 4.30pm - they said pretty slow but also that increasing numbers have postal votes - quite a lot of elderly in the area - so turnout is actually higher than it might appear.
Ah yes, Britain to leave the EU.