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  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Wow, Aaron got the Don Valley gig! Brilliant!

    .. checks betting slips .. on at 8/1...

    Go for it, lad!

    I so hope our bets win.
    I seem to remember he voted leave which leaves him in good shape to pick up a lot of the UKIP vote. Could be a tight race.
    He did vote Leave.

    I'm not going to say anything else until he turns up on PB.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    kle4 said:

    Ooh, turns out I did get on Don Valley at 8/1 too. Sadly not for much, but now it's double extra wishes for TP.

    I think it was you before I mentioned I put 50p on...!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited May 2017
    Ishmael_Z said:

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Times YouGov poll

    Con 48 (+4)

    Lab 29 (-2)

    LD 10 (-1)

    UKIP 5 (-1)

    Oh, LDs. Either the pollsters just cannot find you, or I feel so bad for you. The ones in my area try so hard too (oddly not during the EU ref though).
    That is very interesting. What surprised me even more than the petulance of Remainers post-referendum, was their sloth and apathy before it, so it is useful to know that even habitual campaigners couldn't be arsed to campaign.
    Might just be a LD Leaver heavy area perhaps. But I recall voting day and there were several teams in the town centre for VoteLeave, and I saw a couple of young VoteLeave canvassers going round door knocking at 5pm that day too, with barely any Remain campaigners to be seen, in a town controlled by LDs, so it really surprised me.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Simon Danczuk wants to stand as an independent in Rochdale.

    Surely a lost deposit?

    Perhaps he could get the kippers to endorse him.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Hurrah from Hertsmere
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    edited May 2017
    Arthur_Penny said:

    dixiedean said:

    Arthur_Penny said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Fox

    I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?

    Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
    Conservative bit of Sedgefield (outer Darlington) plus2 Middlesbrough seats, plus Darlington.
    Yes Middlesbrough IS solid Labour - but Middlesbrough South (a larger constituency) is leaning Tory, as is Darlington and Sedgefield.
    Yes, Middlesbrough S is only a bit of Boro. Most of it is very rural and prosperous. Tees Valley looks more likely than W Mids for Tories tbh.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    All I will say, having to got to know Aaron very well over the last few years, he's a top egg and I'm hoping to Don Valley will turn blue on June 8th/9th thanks to him.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    edited May 2017
    Sky news reviewer Stig Abell is having a breakdown on the review with pure fury about TM. Also Jenny Kleeman is backing him up.

    They are the perfect example of the Metropolitan left wing elite and cannot accept we are leaving the EU
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Time to pound out the 'I'm Betting On Bell!' leaflets.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    edited May 2017
    Arthur_Penny said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Fox

    I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?

    Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
    Its the boroughs of Middlesbrough, Stockton, Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland roger's favourite place 'Harlipool'.

    In parliamentary constituencies:

    Middlesbrough
    Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland
    Redcar
    Stockton N
    Stockton S
    Hartlepool
    Darlington
    Sedgefield (a small part of)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tees_Valley_mayoral_election,_2017
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    For those who need a laugh:

    http://shareably.net/speeding-old-ladies-joke/?utm_source=viralslot&utm_medium=facebook&utm_campaign=undefined
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    All I will say, having to got to know Aaron very well over the last few years, he's a top egg and I'm hoping to Don Valley will turn blue on June 8th/9th thanks to him.

    Seconded. He's a jolly decent fellow.
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Even after they had both given their final statements, they returned to petty squabbling. The moderators looked genuinely disappointed with them both.

    My verdict: Le Pen won that overall - she was able to get under his skin in the first parts of the debate, and didn't pull any punches. Towards the end, she started going overboard in her nonstop sarcastic smiles and constantly hectoring him to the point it made her look a bit unhinged. Macron began pulling it back towards the end as he finally started to get under her skin instead of her sitting back smugly with her arms folded laughing at him. Perhap fatigue set in for both. They really seemed to hate each other.

    Couple of contenders for take home lines (paraphrased): "you are like a parasite" - EM, "You have nothing but your mouth" - EM, "France will be led by a woman, me or Merkel" - MLP, "you want to close everything but the borders" - MLP, "I see you're trying to play teacher/pupil with me. Not my thing" - MLP

    So a narrow win for Le Pen but no game changer so polling moving no more than 1-2% in her favour, if at all.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Good luck to Tissue_Price.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Carolus_Rex said:

    JackW said:

    NickPalmer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Nice one!
    Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....
    A quote from John Donne Valley (well almost)!

    I should write thread leaders with such classical references .... well someone should .... :smiley:
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    So is that ICM, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantor and Opinium all giving the Conservatives at 47-49% ?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Well done Aaron
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    All I will say, having to got to know Aaron very well over the last few years, he's a top egg and I'm hoping to Don Valley will turn blue on June 8th/9th thanks to him.

    Yes, whatever your politics you'd have to be happy with somebody like Aaron representing you. Best of luck to the lad.
  • Rhubarb
    Rhubarb Posts: 359
    Roger said:

    Simon Danczuk wants to stand as an independent in Rochdale.

    Surely a lost deposit?

    I believe there's a difference in how redundancy works if you loose verses what you get if you just walk away.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    All I will say, having to got to know Aaron very well over the last few years, he's a top egg and I'm hoping to Don Valley will turn blue on June 8th/9th thanks to him.

    He is one of the finest and most insightful posters on here.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    One of the funniest comments in the history of PB was someone telling Tissue Price, in all seriousness, that Tissue Price knew nothing about betting.

    I laughed so hard I broke a rib.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    God damnit, Whatsapp is down.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Time to pound out the 'I'm Betting On Bell!' leaflets.

    My father campaigned by a young Tory whose campaign slogan was "Do it with Pickles!".

    As in 2017 you will no long be able to "Do it with Pickles!"
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    TP is a good bloke and poster.

    I wouldn't vote for him though I do have a fiver on Tories take Don Valley.

  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2017
    Met Aaron the other week in London and he seemed a very nice guy, and has the manner of a thoughtful MP... but all the praise he's getting tonight is making me go right off him! :wink:
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    another_richard said:

    So is that ICM, YouGov, Panelbase, Kantor and Opinium all giving the Conservatives at 47-49% ?

    And before today - any bets on a +50 poll
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    Is there any chance the pollsters have done an other way swing here on the Conservative vote.

    They've understated before, have they adjusted and its now slightly over-stated?

    Secondly, how much of the top layer is made up is a 'I'll vote Conservative but its because the other guy is crap, otherwise I'd vote Labour' . There has to be an element of they just won't bother voting at all when it comes down to it.

    I could see the Conservatives topping out at 44-45% but a huge amount depends on how many natural Labourites will sit at home.

  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'

    Brutal, unforgettable and true. Macron's been blown away tonight.
    Still complete silence from you to my question. Telling perhaps?
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Paristonda said:

    Even after they had both given their final statements, they returned to petty squabbling. The moderators looked genuinely disappointed with them both.

    My verdict: Le Pen won that overall - she was able to get under his skin in the first parts of the debate, and didn't pull any punches. Towards the end, she started going overboard in her nonstop sarcastic smiles and constantly hectoring him to the point it made her look a bit unhinged. Macron began pulling it back towards the end as he finally started to get under her skin instead of her sitting back smugly with her arms folded laughing at him. Perhap fatigue set in for both. They really seemed to hate each other.

    Couple of contenders for take home lines (paraphrased): "you are like a parasite" - EM, "You have nothing but your mouth" - EM, "France will be led by a woman, me or Merkel" - MLP, "you want to close everything but the borders" - MLP, "I see you're trying to play teacher/pupil with me. Not my thing" - MLP

    So a narrow win for Le Pen but no game changer so polling moving no more than 1-2% in her favour, if at all.

    The line about France being run by a woman, me or Merkel is quite a line.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'

    Brutal, unforgettable and true. Macron's been blown away tonight.
    Still complete silence from you to my question. Telling perhaps?
    I'd call it not telling!
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'

    Brutal, unforgettable and true. Macron's been blown away tonight.
    Still complete silence from you to my question. Telling perhaps?
    Too busy betting the house on Le Pen no doubt!
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky news reviewer Stig Abell is having a breakdown on the review with pure fury about TM. Also Jenny Kleeman is backing him up.

    They are the perfect example of the Metropolitan left wing elite and cannot accept we are leaving the EU

    Abell - left wing? Lol
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Y0kel said:

    Is there any chance the pollsters have done an other way swing here on the Conservative vote.

    They've understated before, have they adjusted and its now slightly over-stated?

    Secondly, how much of the top layer is made up is a 'I'll vote Conservative but its because the other guy is crap, otherwise I'd vote Labour' . There has to be an element of they just won't bother voting at all when it comes down to it.

    I could see the Conservatives topping out at 44-45% but a huge amount depends on how many natural Labourites will sit at home.

    I'd say anything above 45 is froth.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.

    Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Roger said:

    Simon Danczuk wants to stand as an independent in Rochdale.

    Surely a lost deposit?

    Perhaps he could get the kippers to endorse him.
    Or ex page 3 girls
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt

    @Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.

    I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    foxinsoxuk said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'

    Brutal, unforgettable and true. Macron's been blown away tonight.
    Still complete silence from you to my question. Telling perhaps?
    Too busy betting the house on Le Pen no doubt!
    No doubt!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    No one is quite as good as it as you are ;)
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky news reviewer Stig Abell is having a breakdown on the review with pure fury about TM. Also Jenny Kleeman is backing him up.

    They are the perfect example of the Metropolitan left wing elite and cannot accept we are leaving the EU

    Abell - left wing? Lol
    He still going off the deep end - not a good look
  • firstlight40
    firstlight40 Posts: 69
    kle4 said:

    The_Taxman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: TONIGHT: @nick_clegg says EU could adopt “less than reasonable positions” in response to “belligerent combative language” from UK government pic.twitter.com/hEXfkc81PO

    I voted Remain in 2016. But Nick Clegg is playing with fire. I would always support a UK government over a foreign institution, government or other supranational entity. I think Remain voters by and large have moved on now apart from a small and diminishing band of people. I know I certainly have and could be as belligerent as any other Remainer annoyed with the result. Time to move on to the future instead of debating the past.
    The other problem is that many people, rightly or wrongly, will perceive the EU as already having been less than reasonable, so won't think it will happen in response to TMay's language (and as discussed that makes no sense anyway, people don't base their major international positions based on poor language in one speech), but already the case.
    Clegg's playing with fire, maybe he needs to take some action to ensure he doesn't lose his European commission pension...
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    another_richard said:

    Y0kel said:

    Is there any chance the pollsters have done an other way swing here on the Conservative vote.

    They've understated before, have they adjusted and its now slightly over-stated?

    Secondly, how much of the top layer is made up is a 'I'll vote Conservative but its because the other guy is crap, otherwise I'd vote Labour' . There has to be an element of they just won't bother voting at all when it comes down to it.

    I could see the Conservatives topping out at 44-45% but a huge amount depends on how many natural Labourites will sit at home.

    I'd say anything above 45 is froth.
    It is UKIP going over en masse it is not froth
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt

    @Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.

    I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm

    Thought influencing another's election was a no no today.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So Farage is endorsing someone with some interesting views on the holocaust.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    RobD said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    No one is quite as good as it as you are ;)
    I am actually deeply shit at it.
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    another_richard said:

    Arthur_Penny said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Fox

    I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?

    Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
    Its the boroughs of Middlesbrough, Stockton, Darlington, Redcar & Cleveland roger's favourite place 'Harlipool'.

    In parliamentary constituencies:

    Middlesbrough
    Middlesbrough S & E Cleveland
    Redcar
    Stockton N
    Stockton S
    Hartlepool
    Darlington
    Sedgefield (a small part of)

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tees_Valley_mayoral_election,_2017
    Cheeky!

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3443568/ukip-fight-hartlepool-paul-nuttall-campaign/
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    No, it's his real name and screen name, like J Blundell/Pulpstar :p
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    edited May 2017
    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    He posted for many years under his real name, Aaron Bell, but when he decided to become a candidate for Parliament he thought he'd better adopt a pseudonym, so he became Tissue Price.

    A number of MPs have posted on here anonymously. It's perfectly understandable, and I'm sure his record here won't do him any harm.
  • CaptainMatt
    CaptainMatt Posts: 42
    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    He posted for many years under his real name, Aaron Bell, but when he decided to become a candidate for Parliament he thought he'd better adopt a pseudonym on here, so he became Tissue Price.

    A number of MPs have posted on here under pseudonyms. It's perfectly understandable, and I'm sure his record here won't do him any harm.
    I'm not criticising him. I can't see any problem with 'multiple screen names'. Who cares?
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    The Betfair markets for the Doncaster constituencies have been taken down.

    Anyone here been trying to place some bets ?
  • The_Taxman
    The_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    another_richard said:

    Y0kel said:

    Is there any chance the pollsters have done an other way swing here on the Conservative vote.

    They've understated before, have they adjusted and its now slightly over-stated?

    Secondly, how much of the top layer is made up is a 'I'll vote Conservative but its because the other guy is crap, otherwise I'd vote Labour' . There has to be an element of they just won't bother voting at all when it comes down to it.

    I could see the Conservatives topping out at 44-45% but a huge amount depends on how many natural Labourites will sit at home.

    I'd say anything above 45 is froth.
    I would normally think anything over 45% is froth but it seems, to use Jim Callaghan's phrase to be a "sea change" election. The results could well bring some very large surprises just like 1997. I am starting to think the Lib Dems could be wiped out in England and have only one MP in Scotland. Both Labour and the Lib Dems are not credible. In 1983, people thought that they could create change through voting Liberal/SDP - that is not on the table this time. Ergo - the Tories could get 50% plus of the vote especially when the Labour party disclose the lunatic manifesto they are likely to publish.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Pulpstar said:

    bobajobPB said:

    Is Aaron Bell/Tissue Price a 'multiple screen name'?

    No, it's his real name and screen name, like J Blundell/Pulpstar :p
    Aaron Bell was a screen name at one stage.
  • Big_G_NorthWales
    Big_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,238
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    Welcome to this forum and welcome to the conservative party
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,317
    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    I wish you well also.You are unfailingly courteous.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    I wonder!
  • CaptainMatt
    CaptainMatt Posts: 42
    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    Congratulations! And good luck fighting for the future of our country!
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ... ;)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Looks like my thread tipping Sion Simon will come a cropper.

    THat'll mean Coventry Northwest going Tory in the GE at the very least.

    North East was very very Brexity, if the Labour damn really breaks it could be close... (South looks like a forgone conclusion right now)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    A few, no doubt, though let us see where that blood is at in five weeks!
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Farage is endorsing someone with some interesting views on the holocaust.

    About a month or so back I posted that Nigel needed to be very careful about some of the company he was keeping. Based on understandings I have, his name could well pop up in association with a few things in the coming months.

    Farage, and perhaps this a hostage to fortune to say it, is yesterdays man.

  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt

    @Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.

    I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm

    Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    MTimT said:

    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ... ;)
    Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
  • CaptainMatt
    CaptainMatt Posts: 42
    MTimT said:

    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ... ;)
    Thanks! I welcome that! I'm not a head-in-the-sand person who only likes to read things I agree with and one of the things I love about this site is reading views from all over the political spectrum!
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    dixiedean said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    I wish you well also.You are unfailingly courteous.
    I will put that on my endorsement leaflet :-)
  • MTimT
    MTimT Posts: 7,034
    CaptainMatt said:

    MTimT said:

    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ... ;)
    Thanks! I welcome that! I'm not a head-in-the-sand person who only likes to read things I agree with and one of the things I love about this site is reading views from all over the political spectrum!
    I was being a little ironic, in that the non-Tories on here often complain about how many there are ... But yes, it is good to have one's opinions challenged.
  • Cyan
    Cyan Posts: 1,262
    A poll by Elabe has found that 63% found Macron more convincing than Le Pen in the TV debate.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like my thread tipping Sion Simon will come a cropper.

    THat'll mean Coventry Northwest going Tory in the GE at the very least.

    North East was very very Brexity, if the Labour damn really breaks it could be close... (South looks like a forgone conclusion right now)

    It's my tipping point.

    Sion Simon wins = Tory majority of around 60 to 80.

    Sion Simon loses = Tory majority of 100

    Con win Tees Valley = Con Majority of 150 plus
  • BigRich
    BigRich Posts: 3,492
    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.

    Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
    However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.

    If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.

    If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    edited May 2017
    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
    The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
    It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
    Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Sky news reviewer Stig Abell is having a breakdown on the review with pure fury about TM. Also Jenny Kleeman is backing him up.

    They are the perfect example of the Metropolitan left wing elite and cannot accept we are leaving the EU

    Why can't the paper review have two pundits with opposing views for a change?
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    Good luck. I suspect today's events may help in kippery areas.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417

    Macron crushing the post debate polls.

    Which is nice...
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Congrats to TissuePrice.
  • Arthur_Penny
    Arthur_Penny Posts: 198
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.

    Don't give Corbyn ideas.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    So no real fireworks in France tonite. We can expect LeP's price to drift steadily until Sunday now. I'm off to bed. Another big day tomorrow.

    Nite all.
  • bobajobPB
    bobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Cyan said:

    A poll by Elabe has found that 63% found Macron more convincing than Le Pen in the TV debate.

    Surely some mistake? Moniker assured us Macron got thrashed. Hmm.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    We should skip our disdain for La France and send our pollsters over there asap to learn how to do their job properly.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
    The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
    It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
    Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
    The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.

    The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Cyan said:

    A poll by Elabe has found that 63% found Macron more convincing than Le Pen in the TV debate.

    Interesting. If so, the polls will not move much.
  • jayfdee
    jayfdee Posts: 618
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    I also wonder. It is possibly just electioneering. After the GE we will have to come to some agreement and the short term gain by TM may well have longer term downsides. The Express and Mail will love a bit of eurobashing.
  • brokenwheel
    brokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    IanB2 said:

    We should skip our disdain for La France and send our pollsters over there asap to learn how to do their job properly.

    To be fair it is rather easier in a direct vote than FPTP.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Looks like my thread tipping Sion Simon will come a cropper.

    THat'll mean Coventry Northwest going Tory in the GE at the very least.

    North East was very very Brexity, if the Labour damn really breaks it could be close... (South looks like a forgone conclusion right now)

    It's my tipping point.

    Sion Simon wins = Tory majority of around 60 to 80.

    Sion Simon loses = Tory majority of 100

    Con win Tees Valley = Con Majority of 150 plus
    "Shortly there will be an election, in which the Tory Party will increase its majority!"
  • BenedictWhite
    BenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    BigRich said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.

    Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
    However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.

    If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.

    If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!
    Don't you mean important? ;)
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2017
    bobajobPB said:

    Cyan said:

    A poll by Elabe has found that 63% found Macron more convincing than Le Pen in the TV debate.

    Surely some mistake? Moniker assured us Macron got thrashed. Hmm.
    Roughly split along existing supporters, Macron tended to win the Elabe first round post debate polls too. Still set for a 60% 40% or so result, the debate has changed nothing really either way
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    jayfdee said:

    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    I also wonder. It is possibly just electioneering. After the GE we will have to come to some agreement and the short term gain by TM may well have longer term downsides.
    If it is just electioneering it won't really have longer term downsides in any negotiations, and, frankly, if TMay does have a big majority she can afford a climb down or two later.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Hello Sunil

    Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.

    Are you doing ELBOW this time?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    Good luck!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417

    Macron crushing the post debate polls.

    Which is nice...

    Aren't post debate polls usually dominated by whether people prefer certain candidates? I'm glad too, but still.
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    FF43 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Farage for the fascist. The man is a c*nt

    @Nigel_Farage: I want to see @MLP_officiel win on Sunday. She is the right candidate for Brexit Britain.

    I'm supporting Marine Le Pen, and if she fails this year, she will win in 2022

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/03/supporting-marine-le-pen-fails-year-will-win-2022/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_androidshare_AnxB2DhJYnpm

    Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.
    Nah, yesterdays news come 2022. The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    Tissue_Price said:

    dixiedean said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.

    Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.

    I wish you well also.You are unfailingly courteous.
    I will put that on my endorsement leaflet :-)
    Will you be accepting ads in your leaflets from fine pie providers?
  • Arthur_Penny
    Arthur_Penny Posts: 198
    bobajobPB said:

    Cyan said:

    A poll by Elabe has found that 63% found Macron more convincing than Le Pen in the TV debate.

    Surely some mistake? Moniker assured us Macron got thrashed. Hmm.
    Possibly more Macron supporters than LePen supporters watched . .. The thick uneducated racist xenophobic French were watching the Footie
  • daodao
    daodao Posts: 821
    CaptainMatt said:

    I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.

    I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.

    Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.

    The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.

    The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!

    I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!

    TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Ave_it said:

    Hello Sunil

    Sorry to hear about your Dad. Hope you are ok.

    Are you doing ELBOW this time?

    Hello Ave It.

    Were you at Vicarage Road on Monday to see the finest goal to have been scored in the history of that ground?
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Pulpstar said:

    https://twitter.com/screenalltv/status/859893662712508417

    Macron crushing the post debate polls.

    Which is nice...

    I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
  • Pauly
    Pauly Posts: 897
    Congrats Tissue Price, you can do it! :)
  • Fysics_Teacher
    Fysics_Teacher Posts: 6,303
    edited May 2017
    BigRich said:

    BenedictWhite said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.

    Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
    However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.

    If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.

    If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!
    I know it's rude to point out typos, particularly when I rely on the computer to conceal my own idiosyncratic approach to spelling, but I love the idea of impotent money.
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,314
    edited May 2017
    Pulpstar said:

    IanB2 said:

    dixiedean said:

    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
    The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
    It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
    Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
    The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.

    The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
    Technically true - although I don't think this helps that much with the debate. The technical adjustments are supposed to make up for deficiencies in the randomness of the sampling, and if done appropriately shouldn't introduce significant extra error. All the signs however point towards these adjustments being done, at least in some cases, in a way that is introducing error rather than correcting for it.

    Although the statistics in the article were flawed, the data in Nate Silver's recent comparison of how bad the UK pollsters are versus those in the US (to which we can now add France) were instructive. For whatever reason our pollsters have a relatively poor long term track record.
This discussion has been closed.

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