I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Who did herself indoors go for in the first round after all ?
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
Perhaps. We will see...I am not convinced either to be perfectly honest.
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.
The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
Technically true - although I don't think this helps that much with the debate. The technical adjustments are supposed to make up for deficiencies in the randomness of the sampling, and if done appropriately shouldn't introduce significant extra error. All the signs however point towards these adjustments being done, at least in some cases, in a way that is introducing error rather than correcting for it.
Although the statistics in the article were flawed, the data in Nate Silver's recent comparison of how bad the UK pollsters are versus those in the US (to which we can now add France) were instructive. For whatever reason our pollsters have a relatively poor long term track record.
If you think about it logically, any adjustments can't reduce the potential error bounds, they can only increase. So if say C2s or Londoners need to be upweighted in a sample then the effective MoE simply must increase.
Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.
Nah, yesterdays news come 2022. The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.
Successful? That remains to be seen surely? We have to see if he gets MPs etc he can work with first.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
Unless the noises coming out of EU HQ lately are purely playing to an audience (to influence UK and French elections) then there isn't going to be a deal. Or if there is a deal, on terms anywhere near those being talked about, then I'll be cancelling that shiny new Conservative party membership!
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
Unless the noises coming out of EU HQ lately are purely playing to an audience (to influence UK and French elections) then there isn't going to be a deal. Or if there is a deal, on terms anywhere near those being talked about, then I'll be cancelling that shiny new Conservative party membership!
The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
Not really. The +/-3% MOE for most polls is supposed to be at the extreme (well, Ok, 95% of the extreme). Remember that the normal distribution of random sampling is humped in the middle. 24% and 30% are only MOE if the middle is 27%. Yet most of the polls are way off that level. This isn't just random error - there is some systemic error in at least some of the polls that the adjustments are either not correcting, or more probably are creating.
The data collection method is not a probability based sample, quota, criteria and other methods are used. So the margin of error technically does not apply - and also since there can be no superior method to a true probabilistic method, in fact are lower bounds.
The true margin of error on any one poll is higher than the stated MoE.
Technically true - although I don't think this helps that much with the debate. The technical adjustments are supposed to make up for deficiencies in the randomness of the sampling, and if done appropriately shouldn't introduce significant extra error. All the signs however point towards these adjustments being done, at least in some cases, in a way that is introducing error rather than correcting for it.
Although the statistics in the article were flawed, the data in Nate Silver's recent comparison of how bad the UK pollsters are versus those in the US (to which we can now add France) were instructive. For whatever reason our pollsters have a relatively poor long term track record.
Do we have a greater tendency to lie to pollsters? There was a recent poll where 2% of people who intend to vote UKIP at the next election thought that the leave vote was a mistake and should be reversed...
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Given Macron is on 60% or so his supporters simply judged him best, it does not change much, it will still be around 60% to 40% which would still be the highest FN score ever in a presidential election even if Macron wins clearly
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Who did herself indoors go for in the first round after all ?
Macron. Strangely most of her friends voted Hamon. The only people in France to do so. She thinks that her mother and sister (Dupont-Aignan voters) and grandparents (all Fillon) will all go Macron. So, very few transfer votes for Le Pen if so.
Her aim, from today even before the election, is to discredit Macron so totally in the eyes of the French voters as a failed scion of the internationalist elite, that they will choose his anthesis, ie her, in the next election.
Nah, yesterdays news come 2022. The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.
Most likely it would be Macron v Juppe but who knows. At this rate we could have invaded France by then!
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.
Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.
If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.
If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!
I know it's rude to point out typos, particularly when I rely on the computer to conceal my own idiosyncratic approach to spelling, but I love the idea of impotent money.
The drachma, Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan bolivar ...
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
Whatever else one thinks of Mme Le Pen, what is undeniable is that her plan for France to run two parallel currencies makes Diane Abbott looks like a finance-minister-in-waiting.
Quite. The biggest issue for those in the Eurozone is, if you want to get out, how? It would benefit both Greece and Italy not to be in but I can't see a way to get out without enormous pain.
However 'Odd' or strange a system, a country with more than one currency may sound, it does not mean that it is a bad system.
If you allow more than one currency and let Individuals and businesses chose which they want to use, them over time they will mostly chose the currency that is best for them. without the dramatic affects of an overnight swap.
If I could recommend any thing I would suggest just abolishing the concept of an official currency, It worked in 18th century Scotland and Canada up till 1913, if done today Bitcoin might become the preferred option. who knows. Just keep the government out of something as impotent as money!
I know it's rude to point out typos, particularly when I rely on the computer to conceal my own idiosyncratic approach to spelling, but I love the idea of impotent money.
The drachma, Zimbabwe dollar, Venezuelan bolivar ...
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
Lots of Labour Tories as well
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.
Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.
Congrats and good luck. Was great to chat at the drinks a few weeks back, don't forget us when you're rich and famous
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
Lots of Labour Tories as well
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
I'm thinking of getting a Thatcher tattoo, just as an insurance measure for the Tory dystopia that awaits us.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise! They gave it as 63/34 overall.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
Clinton wasn't 20 points clear of Trump 4 days before the election.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
Clinton wasn't 20 points clear of Trump 4 days before the election.
She was 3 points or so clear, and ended up err 3 points clear
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Macron's tactic, I think, was to say to the many non partisan voters, you may not know me or like me, but the FN are not nice or trustworthy people. I would say Marine Le Pen somewhat reinforced his point.
Despite the insults there were interesting ideas in that debate from both candidates about what France wants in these difficult times for the country.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise!
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
Lots of Labour Tories as well
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
I'm thinking of getting a Thatcher tattoo, just as an insurance measure for the Tory dystopia that awaits us.
Hello everyone. I'm obviously delighted to be selected and know that we have a very stiff - but doable - task ahead of us. More news to follow soon but I need to get some sleep as I'm knocking up in the constituency tomorrow and then attending the Mayoral count overnight. It will be interesting to see how we get on in the more Labour/UKIP parts. As someone said below, they are key. You have to ask people for their vote, especially when it's for the first time.
Thanks to everyone who has wished me well from all parts of the political spectrum.
Congrats and good luck. Was great to chat at the drinks a few weeks back, don't forget us when you're rich and famous
Debating on PB should be excellent preparation for political debate generally, and particularly the shenanigans of opponents and media figures attempting deflection, insult, obfuscation, whataboutery, insult again, classical warfare references, repetition, insult, gotcha questions and insult.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
96-3 on that question is a bit amazing!
That was with Macron voters only, so not much of a surprise!
12% of Le Pen voters thought Macron won...
Not far off the number of UKIP Remainers in some polls...
'The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.'
Macron will go the same way as Hollande who proposed some minor changes and was crushed by the French unions.
The French unions make UNITE look like a wimp.
French unions are oddly weak in terms of membership numbers - only around 8% of the working population compared with 25% in UK. They are just louder and more aggressive, and because they never had a Thatcher/Scargill moment, enjoy more rights and privileges than our ones do.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Corbyn or May forced choice on who can negotiate Brexit better. Alot of Con/LD floaters won't risk Corbyn even if they think Brexit is utter mince.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
Lots of Labour Tories as well
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
Yes I guess if you are in the SWP or CPGB then Momentum are the Tories who sold their souls to mainstream politics. If that's the right phrase.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
If the right podcast were up you could listen to the theories on that about 2/3 of the way through.
Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.
According to my plots, the Tory share is flatlining at 47% (of course that depends where you measure the average). I'm looking forward to the ELBOW this week!
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
And she had a few assists as well (didn't it cost a CNN 'reporter' her job?). Anyway - in the USA it is the States that ultimately select someone to preside over them. In France it is the people directly, in the UK it is Parliament.
It looks like the Labour vote distribution is going to be more like the Democrats than the Republicans - where previously it was vice-versa. The poll for Tees Valley Mayor rather reinforces this,
Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the TV debate:
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen; Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%; Macron voters: 95% - 3%; Fillon voters: 58% - 38%; Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%; abstainers in first round: n/a
The latest Elabe poll has Melenchon voters splitting 44% Macron 23% Le Pen and Fillon voters 46% Macron 30% Le Pen so both Macron and Le Pen have improved their performance a bit though it will depends on who turns out, I expect a lot of Melenchon voters in particular will abstain
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Tories to the left of Guardian readers, Tories that vote Lib Dem...
Lots of Labour Tories as well
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
Yes I guess if you are in the SWP or CPGB then Momentum are the Tories who sold their souls to mainstream politics. If that's the right phrase.
Even some fairly mainstream stuff says Corbyn is not really left wing, at least if the title is anything to go by (I'm not a subscriber)
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
You're right of course. May's outburst had all the indications of a person under severe stress, facing the realisation that the "red, white and blue" Brexit she was looking for will be the worst of all for the UK economy and the population as a whole and is now looking to blame anyone but herself for this debacle.
There is no hatred of us by the Europeans, that only exists in the mind of Daily Mail readers and the "fruit loons and nut jobs" that thought voting Leave would improve things in the UK. Well, as you can now see and hear, it won't for at least a generation, but don't blame anyone but yourselves because you were told this would be the likely outcome before the vote.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
Welcome (back) to PB. But I don't think you'll find many Tories on here though ...
Yes, one of the big flaws of PB is its lack of Tories. It's like finding a virgin in a brothel at times.
We've got the widest range on PB - One Nation Tories, Classical Tories, Wets, Drys, Heathites and Thatcherites, the whole gamut. Something for everyone.
Elabe poll on who was most convincing in the TV debate:
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen; Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%; Macron voters: 95% - 3%; Fillon voters: 58% - 38%; Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%; abstainers in first round: n/a
The latest Elabe poll has Melenchon voters splitting 44% Macron 23% Le Pen and Fillon voters 46% Macron 30% Le Pen so both Macron and Le Pen have improved their performance a bit though it will depends on who turns out, I expect a lot of Melenchon voters in particular will abstain
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
Makes sense only if he wanted to go. Otherwise you'd have a party in open warfare coming up to the GE and no matter what some might think it isn't in open warfare now.
As it is, the locals may not be at the lowest end of the expectancy scale.
Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Like most other places the extreme right in France aren't the brightest and are unlikely to be watching the debate or therefore to be judging it.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Twitter is not France - just remember that.
Of course Hillary won all 3 of her debates with Trump and still lost
And she had a few assists as well (didn't it cost a CNN 'reporter' her job?). Anyway - in the USA it is the States that ultimately select someone to preside over them. In France it is the people directly, in the UK it is Parliament.
I think you'll find it is God who selects someone to preside over the UK, via royal genetics.
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
We've beig deal.
You're right of course. May's outburst had all the indications of a person under severe stress, facing the realisation that the "red, white and blue" Brexit she was looking for will be the worst of all for the UK economy and the population as a whole and is now looking to blame anyone but herself for this debacle.
There is no hatred of us by the Europeans, that only exists in the mind of Daily Mail readers and the fruit loons and nut jobs that thought voting Leave would improve things in the UK. Well, as you can now see and hear, it won't for at least a generation, but don't blame anyone but yourselves because you were told this would be the likely outcome before the vote.
If we end up no deal, and that ends up as bad as it could, I will need to do a mea culpa, not that it will mitigate things at that point.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
They have said nothing so far to appeal to me (and I was willing to be wooed). It is all Brexit, and gay sex. I was there to be convinced, but I was a Corbyn/May remainer not a Europhile. Brexit will happen like it or not. Plus they have only Farron now. The days they could put Kennedy, Ashdown, Cable, Laws, etc. in front of the cameras are long gone.
Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....
Agreed. The party really will have been split from years of infighting, and they could argue at least somewhat credibly if he had been backed properly they could have built on that 28%.
I kind of expected that despite my own thoughts being that she won. In each debate so far I have not found Macron to be the winner, or to have been a bit disappointing, but he seems to win each time according to the post-debate polls so I must just be in the minority of Macron supporters who do not rate his debating skills.
Macron's tactic, I think, was to say to the many non partisan voters, you may not know me or like me, but the FN are not nice or trustworthy people. I would say Marine Le Pen somewhat reinforced his point.
Despite the insults there were interesting ideas in that debate from both candidates about what France wants in these difficult times for the country.
Yes, two very different (almost entirely opposite) visions for France. If nothing else the election certainly puts paid to the old argument of "they're all the same" - Trump/Clinton, Macron/Le Pen, Corbyn/May ; we've never had such diverging choices in leaders.
I don't believe tories will get as high 48 nor do I believe labour will get 29....again that would have corbyn basically doing as well as brown and miliband. It just doesn't feel right at all.
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
You're missing the bit where we take over Europe to the Caucuses and Urals for a short while ...
Since June 23rd I've half written a thread which says Brexit is the greatest strategic blunder by a European country since Hitler abrogated the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and launched Operation Barbarossa.
Brown got 29% and Miliband 30%. If Corbyn comes out with 28% (OK 27% adjusting for NI) then the case for him staying, in the eyes of his supporters, will there to be made....
Well in 2015 the Tories marmalised the Lib Dem vote, and it looks like they're keeping most of it. And in 2017 it'll be the UKIP vote that is marmalised and kept... Labour actually went up under Ed Miliband remember, I doubt Corbyn will keep that up.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
You're missing the bit where we take over Europe to the Caucuses and Urals for a short while ...
Since June 23rd I've half written a thread which says Brexit is the greatest strategic blunder by a European country since Hitler abrogated the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact and launched Operation Barbarossa.
I might finish it for this weekend.
Except we are not the Nazis attempting to expand their empire but escaping one
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.
What's the point of being in politics if you don't have the courage to get rid of poor leaders?
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.
I still think there might be some moves to get rid of Corbyn after tomorrow's results are announced, assuming they're very bad for Labour, ie. losing most of the mayoral contests, and failing to win a single county council.
The dream of many, but it is hard to see how they'd work up the courage (and though I think it'll be bad for them, I don't think it will be as bad as that scenario) or how it would even help much. He wouldn't go, not without a chance to fight the GE. and then they're stuck, in open warfare. As ridiculous as 'Vote for Labour but please know I dislike Corbyn too' is as a strategy, it's better than being openly at each others' throats en masse. At that point you are only going to vote Labour to save the brand, and as strong as it still is, that's a lot of faith to place in it.
What's the point of being in politics if you don't have the courage to get rid of poor leaders?
Well they did try, but in any case politics is about more than courage it is also about judgement. They showed very poor judgement getting themselves into this situation, but now the judgement is would trying, again, to oust him, at this moment, actually make things any better?
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
Or within 15 years we will be governed by a dictator, within 21 years have invaded and conquered most of Europe and even if eventually defeated go on to become the largest European economy (though hopefully avoiding a second holocaust in the meantime)
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.
I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.
I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.
That's why I said 'within 30 years'
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.
I'm starting to wonder whether he might lose his own seat in Westmorland.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
The worrying thing about her remarks is that they show how she intends to approach Brexit politically - by sabre rattling and blaming the EU for everything that doesn't go her way. She could have, like some of her colleagues, laughed off the dinner leaks in public, had stern words in private and played off Juncker and the hardliners against other figures' desire for a deal. Colour me surprised, a politician has leaked conversations with the aim making themselves look good and justifying their position. It's what they do.
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically. May because you can't put the jingoism genie back in the bottle - once you've set yourself up as the great protector of the nation against perfidious foreigners you can't compromise - or you put yourself on the wrong side of nationalism. The EU because it can't be seen to give in and undermine its rules at the behest of a member that's treated it with ill concealed hostility and those within the EU who were initially willing to accept a more beneficial deal are forced into the arms of the hardliners.
So far, our negotiations resemble the prisoner's dilemma, marching towards a very bad outcome for everyone due to the desire or each party to gain the jump on an adversary.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.
I assume that we've all seen the joy that is Chuck Tingle?
I have now...and I can't unsee it!
I can't bring myself to actually read it; the reality could never live up to the promise.
I'm a longtime PB reader, and was an occasional poster (back in the disqus days!), and now I'm back.
I've also been a longtime small-c conservative with an interest in politics but was never actively involved. No more.
Today my slowly simmering blood finally boiled.
The seething rage, hate and threats being directed toward the country I love by people who are now clearly & actively trying to damage it has caused me to sign up for a Conservative party membership.
The gloves are off and now is the time to actively support & campaign the only people with the will and the ability to defend the country I love!
I wonder how many people are thinking the same thing today!
TM should have kept her feelings under wraps; she has demeaned herself (and the UK) by her childish petulance today. This tweet from NS sums it up well "UK needs best possible Brexit deal and has limited leverage, so for PM to poison atmosphere for partisan reasons is deeply irresponsible". Car crash Brexit looms.
We've been told that was already the most likely outcome, and the EU's position was set, indeed their hostile leaking indicated that. May's rhetoric will have had zero impact on any serious negotiations, since only fools would negotiate based off the remarks played for a domestic audience during an election campaign. As the EU are presumably not fools, it will have no impact on their position, therefore it cannot be a big deal.
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically.
The EUs ever increasing demands show that we are not the only ones playing that game.
Looks like the Telegraph online are comparing the €100bn demand to the Treaty of Versailles...
So within in 30 years the UK will be split into two, and 4 countries will effectively occupy a war ravaged UK?
I thought the treaty of Versailles settled the first world war, and Germany's reparations. I am not aware of Germany being either "war ravaged" in the way it was in WW2 or partitioned and occupied.
That's why I said 'within 30 years'
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
The Rhineland was occupied for a while and demilitarised for longer. Bits like the Saar had a forced referendum on which country they wished to be in. Poland was given the Danzig corridor. So the OP is not strictly accurate to say there was no partition or occupation. Nevertheless the key ravaging was economic, since the burden of reparations was immense.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
Are they just seen as irrelevant? Farron isn't even prompted in "best PM" questions.
I'm starting to wonder whether he might lose his own seat in Westmorland.
I can't understand why the LDs aren't doing better in the polls, especially with May being so unsympathetic to Con/LD floating voters. Very mysterious.
It is all Brexit, and gay sex.
This is probably the most inappropriate and off topic I have ever been, but my immediate thought was:
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.
I think SeanT finds aspects of Hard Brexit arousing certainly
Comments
I already did ELBOW for week-ending 23rd April, and 30th April
30th April (9 polls):
Con 46.33
Lab 28.11
LD 10.22
UKIP 6.67
Tory Lead: 18.22
23rd April (10 polls):
Con 45.50
Lab 26.10
LD 10.40
UKIP 8.60
Tory Lead: 19.40
Yes good goal but not overjoyed. We are not safe yet!
I'm somewhere to the right of Maggie
'The Republicans will come up with a better candidate, and Macron will be the successful incumbent.'
Macron will go the same way as Hollande who proposed some minor changes and was crushed by the French unions.
The French unions make UNITE look like a wimp.
Condolences on your Dad. Remember to take care of yourself.
Haven't seen the Momentum Tories yet, but no doubt they'll turn up some time around 9 June as the post-election purge proceeds.
My projection is:
CON 42
LAB 28
LD 10
UKIP 8
GRN 2
SNP 4
OTH 6
CON maj 70
Despite the insults there were interesting ideas in that debate from both candidates about what France wants in these difficult times for the country.
overall: 63% Macron, 34% Le Pen;
Mélenchon voters: 66% - 30%;
Macron voters: 95% - 3%;
Fillon voters: 58% - 38%;
Le Pen voters: 12% - 85%;
abstainers in first round: n/a
https://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-episode-100-firing-the-starting-gun-brexit-rows-and-where-is-the-lib-dem-surge/
ELBOW Tory lead week-ending 23rd = 19.4
ELBOW Tory lead week-ending 30th = 18.2
It looks like the Labour vote distribution is going to be more like the Democrats than the Republicans - where previously it was vice-versa. The poll for Tees Valley Mayor rather reinforces this,
https://www.slideshare.net/contactElabe/intentions-de-vote-prsidentielles-vague-12
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/far-being-left-wing-radical-jeremy-corbyn-slouching-towards-milibandism
And apparently Mr Scargill thinks so too
https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2015/09/arthur-scargill-jeremy-corbyn-isnt-left-wing-enough/
In fairness, his policies in many areas are not really his biggest problem. Inflexibility and ability are.
There is no hatred of us by the Europeans, that only exists in the mind of Daily Mail readers and the "fruit loons and nut jobs" that thought voting Leave would improve things in the UK. Well, as you can now see and hear, it won't for at least a generation, but don't blame anyone but yourselves because you were told this would be the likely outcome before the vote.
As it is, the locals may not be at the lowest end of the expectancy scale.
(Yes, I know you mean the PM) If we end up no deal, and that ends up as bad as it could, I will need to do a mea culpa, not that it will mitigate things at that point.
Trump/Clinton, Macron/Le Pen, Corbyn/May ; we've never had such diverging choices in leaders.
I might finish it for this weekend.
Labour actually went up under Ed Miliband remember, I doubt Corbyn will keep that up.
Oh those halycon days of Ed Miliband.
Take back control...Hard: A Brexit Porno
Probably an indication to sign off.
https://www.archaeology.co.uk/articles/features/britannia-a-failed-state.htm
The immediate post reformation century was pretty rough too...
I hope you're all feeling proud of yourselves tonight.
I think that's what I'll do Sunday's thread on.
I'm from the school of history that says The Treaty of Versailles effectively caused WWII.
WWI was based on treaties, it is entirely given slightly different circumstances in WWI, we would have been one of the Central powers, whilst the Germans were one of the Allied Powers.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/june2017/2017/05/theresa-mays-speech-might-win-her-election-it-could-cost-britain
There's a real danger that she boxes herself and the EU into a situation where both us and them can't make a deal because it would involve losing too much politically. May because you can't put the jingoism genie back in the bottle - once you've set yourself up as the great protector of the nation against perfidious foreigners you can't compromise - or you put yourself on the wrong side of nationalism. The EU because it can't be seen to give in and undermine its rules at the behest of a member that's treated it with ill concealed hostility and those within the EU who were initially willing to accept a more beneficial deal are forced into the arms of the hardliners.
So far, our negotiations resemble the prisoner's dilemma, marching towards a very bad outcome for everyone due to the desire or each party to gain the jump on an adversary.