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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexi

SystemSystem Posts: 11,715
edited May 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexit rows & where is the LD surge?

On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Adam Payne of Business Insider UK to discuss the political state of play as the General Election campaign proper kicks off.

Read the full story here


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Comments

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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,558
    edited May 2017
    First!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MsHelicat: Thursday's FINANCIAL TIMES: May accuses Brussels of election sabotage and ramping up tension #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859872023337721861/photo/1
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    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    its a fix!! I was first and it disappeared...
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    The French presidential debate is compelling.
    http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/direct-presidentielle-le-debat-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-du-2eme-tour-a-suivre-en-live-sur-france-2-et-tf1_2173168.html
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,179
    Macron ties himself up in policy detail.
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,558
    This is the old podcast again?
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,214
    Le Pen sounding like a proper lefty.
  • Options
    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,179
    JenS said:

    The French presidential debate is compelling.
    http://www.francetvinfo.fr/elections/presidentielle/direct-presidentielle-le-debat-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen-du-2eme-tour-a-suivre-en-live-sur-france-2-et-tf1_2173168.html

    Thanks for the link in French. I got fed up with the interpreters.
  • Options
    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,214
    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
  • Options
    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Flicked onto France24 and it's still on! How long does the debate go on for? Football over now so I guess more people will watch the last bit.
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    MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
  • Options
    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Macron says nationalism caused war. Le Pen says war was caused by cowering before other nations.
    This is fiery stuff.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @BBCNewsnight: TONIGHT: @nick_clegg says EU could adopt “less than reasonable positions” in response to “belligerent combative language” from UK government pic.twitter.com/hEXfkc81PO
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Still no response from Monica to my question FPT.

    Quelle surprise!
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Whatever you think of her and her policies, that is a great line.
  • Options
    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Question: what relations do you want with Trump and Putin?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    edited May 2017
    Listening to the actual podcast ep 100, I agree with the point about the Labour campaign being relatively policy heavy so far, and Corbyn himself a fairly sound start (though a poll says otherwise - but that's probably due to him not being liked). It is right Labour are not down in the doldrums, remarkably.

    And as much as I think the reaction to May today has been overblown even though I didn't like what she said, I enjoyed the contrast with the point that the perception of her going in to the campaign is 'calm and sensible'.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    edited May 2017
    LDs = http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m4jbuk8Bes1rwkg8yo1_500.gif

    :p
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    I wonder if the Lib Dems are looking at a total wipe out in England. I watched Nick Clegg on TV yesterday and thought he was a giant compared to Farron. My thoughts about Farron have been to give him the benefit of the doubt and look for the best in him but he does not strike me as someone with any "Bottom". Indeed, he might of taken something of a safe Tory seat and represented in a way the voters like but he stretches credibility as much as Corbyn as being a potential PM. I suspect this is why the opinion polls are showing solid Tory leads.
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Macron says he will propose working with Trump.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Gold standard status confirmed!
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    JenS said:

    Macron says he will propose working with Trump.

    On climate change.

    Ok.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,208
    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    Ask them for maps. ;)
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Can we assume that bus will be charged out to the LibDem candidate in every constituency it passes through?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    JenS said:

    Macron says he will propose working with Trump.

    Why wouldn't he work with him? He's the President of the US!
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Macron says in Syria everyone should get round the table. He sounds like Corbyn.
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    Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    JenS said:

    Macron says he will propose working with Trump.

    That is suicide. Who on earth will support him now after all the media attacks on Trump as a raving loonie?
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Baxtering this, I see that Thangam Debbonaire loses Bristol W to the Greens. I don't know anything about her and her policies, but it would be a shame to lose a name like that from Westminster
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    When's the next poll? :)
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Much lower than some other Labour scores lately. Which are right? I find the Tories being double Lab incredible, but I cannot rule out merely because it seems so strange, but higher 20s seems more regular the past week or so.
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    How much do you think he's going to win by?
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    edited May 2017
    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    edited May 2017
    Ep 100
    https://kpedley.podbean.com/e/polling-matters-episode-100-firing-the-starting-gun-brexit-rows-and-where-is-the-lib-dem-surge/
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: May unleashes fire at Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859875344731570177/photo/1
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    Ask them for maps. ;)
    :D
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    chestnut said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    How much do you think he's going to win by?
    10-15pts
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    No - we have had that!
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    Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Much lower than some other Labour scores lately. Which are right? I find the Tories being double Lab incredible, but I cannot rule out merely because it seems so strange, but higher 20s seems more regular the past week or so.
    Very good Con poll - and this was before May 'wrapped herself in the Union Jack', I assume.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    I did like the description of being accosted by 'so called real people'.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,428
    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    No - we have had that!
    Cheers, can't see it on the old thread but only did a cursory search for 'panelbase'
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    geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,179
    Macron is the French Blair. Fluent.
    JenS said:

    Macron says in Syria everyone should get round the table. He sounds like Corbyn.

    More like Blair.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Scott_P said:

    @MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: May unleashes fire at Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859875344731570177/photo/1

    Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Le Pen says France must keep an equal distance from the US and Russia. It's sort of Gaullism.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    williamglenn said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    Ask them for maps. ;)
    It might come to that at this rate :)
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,060
    Ave_it said:

    When's the next poll? :)

    Conservative 20%
    Labour 300,000%
    LDems -0%
    Others 30p

    Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    MTimT said:

    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Baxtering this, I see that Thangam Debbonaire loses Bristol W to the Greens. I don't know anything about her and her policies, but it would be a shame to lose a name like that from Westminster
    I don't think the calculation works for the Greens because their national rating is so small.
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    The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: TONIGHT: @nick_clegg says EU could adopt “less than reasonable positions” in response to “belligerent combative language” from UK government pic.twitter.com/hEXfkc81PO

    I voted Remain in 2016. But Nick Clegg is playing with fire. I would always support a UK government over a foreign institution, government or other supranational entity. I think Remain voters by and large have moved on now apart from a small and diminishing band of people. I know I certainly have and could be as belligerent as any other Remainer annoyed with the result. Time to move on to the future instead of debating the past.
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    kle4 said:

    Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.

    It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,205
    edited May 2017
    Le Pen accuses Macron of representing the old ultra liberal economic model of Reagan and Thatcher
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    edited May 2017
    The_Taxman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: TONIGHT: @nick_clegg says EU could adopt “less than reasonable positions” in response to “belligerent combative language” from UK government pic.twitter.com/hEXfkc81PO

    I voted Remain in 2016. But Nick Clegg is playing with fire. I would always support a UK government over a foreign institution, government or other supranational entity. I think Remain voters by and large have moved on now apart from a small and diminishing band of people. I know I certainly have and could be as belligerent as any other Remainer annoyed with the result. Time to move on to the future instead of debating the past.
    The other problem is that many people, rightly or wrongly, will perceive the EU as already having been less than reasonable, so won't think it will happen in response to TMay's language (and as discussed that makes no sense anyway, people don't base their major international positions based on poor language in one speech), but already the case.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    I thought Labour canvassers said their vote was rock solid?
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Re-introducing Latin?!
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    MTimT said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Whatever you think of her and her policies, that is a great line.
    That is a great line, but suspiciously good to have been a spur of the moment statement. I expect that makes a few front pages, it's too good not to use.
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    isamisam Posts: 41,028
    Ukip going soft!

    DaveHillOnLondon (@DaveHill)
    03/05/2017, 10:41
    Heroine of #ukip ultras 'not ratified' by party as #Lewisham candidate: onlondon.co.uk/2017/05/02/ele… #Nuttall curbs extremists, shock? #GE2017
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Lot of theories on why the LDs aren't surging, or even really rising. No clear answer it seems.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,214
    The_Taxman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @BBCNewsnight: TONIGHT: @nick_clegg says EU could adopt “less than reasonable positions” in response to “belligerent combative language” from UK government pic.twitter.com/hEXfkc81PO

    I voted Remain in 2016. But Nick Clegg is playing with fire. I would always support a UK government over a foreign institution, government or other supranational entity. I think Remain voters by and large have moved on now apart from a small and diminishing band of people. I know I certainly have and could be as belligerent as any other Remainer annoyed with the result. Time to move on to the future instead of debating the past.
    There's plenty of fair analysis and criticism from Remainers. But Clegg really is a complete twat.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    chestnut said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    How much do you think he's going to win by?
    Macron by more than 20%.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    kle4 said:

    Lot of theories on why the LDs aren't surging, or even really rising. No clear answer it seems.

    8 -> 11% is Uuuuuge
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    I am Groot...
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Ave_it said:

    When's the next poll? :)

    Conservative 20%
    Labour 300,000%
    LDems -0%
    Others 30p

    Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.
    The Greens were on -30% in that poll, a big improvement on their -15% last week. Surprised you forgot those five key details.
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Ave_it said:

    When's the next poll? :)

    Conservative 20%
    Labour 300,000%
    LDems -0%
    Others 30p

    Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.
    LAB = :lol:
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen accuses Macron of representing the old ultra liberal economic model of Reagan and Thatcher

    Wow, foreign politicians really are more worldly in their discussions than us.
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    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,428
    Arthur_Penny said:

    kle4 said:

    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    Much lower than some other Labour scores lately. Which are right? I find the Tories being double Lab incredible, but I cannot rule out merely because it seems so strange, but higher 20s seems more regular the past week or so.
    Very good Con poll - and this was before May 'wrapped herself in the Union Jack', I assume.
    Dan Hannan on Sky tonight asking why Corbyn, Farron and Sturgeon are all attacking the PM and standing up for Junckers and Brussels.

    This could be far more serious for the ' coaltion of chaos'. It plays right into TM hands and will be repeated time after time.

    The leakers in the EU thought it would destabilize TM but all they have done is unite the vast majority behind her
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    Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    LAB will be in exit poll denial 36 days time!
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @AlastairMeeks fpt

    Re Farron

    Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face

    He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.

    That, for me, makes him toxic
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,558
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
    The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
  • Options
    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2017
    justin124 said:

    Kantar poll

    Conservatives 48% (+2)
    Labour 24% (-)
    LibDems 11% (-)
    UKIP 7% (-1)

    That's TNS in old names.
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: May unleashes fire at Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859875344731570177/photo/1

    Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.
    You direct fire, or you unleash dogs of war.

    Relatedly, today is the first day it feels as if Theresa is Maggie T redux all over again, for reasons beyond the fact that she's a female PM.
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    Yes, all partisan views aside, that is probably the zinger of night.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    RobD said:

    justin124 said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    No - we have had that!
    Cheers, can't see it on the old thread but only did a cursory search for 'panelbase'
    The search function only works for the number of pages you have open, so unless you open all the comments to the beginning of a thread, it will miss some.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    Have we heard back from Don Valley yet ?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY EXPRESS: Don't meddle in our election #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859877432932880385/photo/1
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    glwglw Posts: 9,556
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Ave_it said:

    When's the next poll? :)

    Conservative 20%
    Labour 300,000%
    LDems -0%
    Others 30p

    Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.
    To really come from Abbott Research the figures would change at a 10 second interval.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Scott_P said:

    @MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY EXPRESS: Don't meddle in our election #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859877432932880385/photo/1

    'Meddle' rather than 'rig' is surprisingly measured in tone.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,659
    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,018
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Huzzah
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    Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Yay, yay and thrice yay!
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    Ave_it said:

    When's the next poll? :)

    Conservative 20%
    Labour 300,000%
    LDems -0%
    Others 30p

    Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.

    But we know that when Diane says 300,000 she really means 300,000,000, so I guess that is the real Labour score.

    Shame the LDs are stuck in 'negative growth'
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    RestharrowRestharrow Posts: 233
    Charles said:

    @AlastairMeeks fpt

    Re Farron

    Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face

    He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.

    That, for me, makes him toxic

    Are you worried that a future LibDem government might repeal the 1967 Sexual Offences Act?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Good luck Mr Bell. I shall still call you TissuePrice. Regrettably, good wishes is the best I can offer.
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    Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 13,373
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen accuses Macron of representing the old ultra liberal economic model of Reagan and Thatcher

    Wow, foreign politicians really are more worldly in their discussions than us.
    She has been holding the UK up as a paragon of virtue, an example to be followed.

    Nice to know somebody out there loves us.
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,816
    Just tuned into the French presidential debate. There's the most frenetic sign language person I have ever seen.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,205
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Le Pen accuses Macron of representing the old ultra liberal economic model of Reagan and Thatcher

    Wow, foreign politicians really are more worldly in their discussions than us.
    She is clearly trying to appeal to Melenchon voters on economics and Fillon voters on nationalism and security, now onto French schools
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    ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819
    bobajobPB said:

    kle4 said:

    Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.

    It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
    The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,038
    edited May 2017
    IanB2 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    RobD said:

    Has this poll been missed - http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W10470w2TablesForPublication020517.pdf

    Con 47%
    Lab 30%
    LD 10%
    UKIP 5%

    28 Apr - 02 May

    I think it was shown earlier
    The 24%-30% range for Labour suggests that the pollsters are flailing about with all their adjustments.
    It's just MOE in reality. (Although that doesn't mean they aren't flailing)!
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    bobajobPBbobajobPB Posts: 1,042
    foxinsoxuk said:

    chestnut said:

    bobajobPB said:

    MonikerDiCanio said:

    tlg86 said:

    JenS said:

    Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.

    France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
    Immortal.
    So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
    How much do you think he's going to win by?
    Macron by more than 20%.
    I see none of the Le Pen cheerleaders have the bollocks to actually make a prediction!
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,145
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Congrats to TP.
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    JenSJenS Posts: 91
    Le Pen is winding Macron up like a clock.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,957
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Amazing news - huge congrats to @Tissue_Price
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Good luck Tissue Price!!
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/

    West Mids and Teeside. Not really a shock.
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    MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley

    Good luck Mr Bell. I shall still call you TissuePrice. Regrettably, good wishes is the best I can offer.
    Congrats, Mr Price/Bell. Daunting (but doable?) task ahead of you. May the wind be at your back ...
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,086
    Suggestion in podcast that public presently buying government line that no deal is better than a bad deal, but makes the fair point that we don't know what the public's reaction to a specific deal or no deal would be.

    Somewhat surprised at the less than hysterical discussion about TMay's statements, comparison to boxing trash talk. 'Just electioneering' seems like the conclusion.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,021
    edited May 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/

    What were TSEs prediction regarding May's majority in the event of a Tory win in the West Midlands? :D
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