Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.
Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.
You direct fire, or you unleash dogs of war.
Relatedly, today is the first day it feels as if Theresa is Maggie T redux all over again, for reasons beyond the fact that she's a female PM.
What's fascinating about that comparison is that Thatcher couldn't count on the support of the mainstream of her party in response to her hardening euroscepticism. The Tory party now is a very different beast.
Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.
Well she does have a pretty husky smoker's voice so perhaps it's to try and mimic that!
Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.
Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.
Well she does have a pretty husky smoker's voice so perhaps it's to try and mimic that!
Yes, it's not exactly a classic Frenchwoman's soft lilt, but still.
Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.
You direct fire, or you unleash dogs of war.
Relatedly, today is the first day it feels as if Theresa is Maggie T redux all over again, for reasons beyond the fact that she's a female PM.
What's fascinating about that comparison is that Thatcher couldn't count on the support of the mainstream of her party in response to her hardening euroscepticism. The Tory party now is a very different beast.
And as a consequence of the difference, she has become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...
To be fair Labour did do better than was expected in the 2016 local elections.
That was my point - the expectations management was great, as Lab were talking of doing even worse than pundit predictions, and they did better than both, as I recall.
Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...
To be fair Labour did do better than was expected in the 2016 local elections.
Brexit seems to have been the inflexion point. Before then Labour stood up pretty well in real life electoral tests. Since then they have underperformed on every occasion.
Baxtering this, I see that Thangam Debbonaire loses Bristol W to the Greens. I don't know anything about her and her policies, but it would be a shame to lose a name like that from Westminster
I don't think the calculation works for the Greens because their national rating is so small.
I'm on a Tory gain here at 25's but it needs an unlikely 26-24-24-24:split!
"It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain."
Le Pen taunts Macron for having gone to Merkel to ask for her blessing.
France will be run by a woman after the election. Me or Mrs Merkel.
Immortal.
So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?
How much do you think he's going to win by?
Macron by more than 20%.
So Le Pen <40%?
Do you fancy a friendly £20 at evens?
<40 you win, 40 or more I do?</p>
No thanks. There are better odds on betfair for the sub 40% band. That is where my money is. Indeed the 2.74 there is value, though I do have a bit on the sub 35% band too.
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
And Berkley won't let you speak at all - mind you it cost them allegedly $500,000 policing costs just for the speaker NOT to attend.
The UK equivalent might be getting locked up for laughing at our new Home Secretary, Dianne Abbott - which really would engender US style mass incarceration.
Oh, LDs. Either the pollsters just cannot find you, or I feel so bad for you. The ones in my area try so hard too (oddly not during the EU ref though).
Congratulations to @Tissue_Price. The seat looks tough on paper but with a massive UKIP vote to squeeze and Labour suffering on a national scale it could be done.
And Berkley won't let you speak at all - mind you it cost them allegedly $500,000 policing costs just for the speaker NOT to attend.
The UK equivalent might be getting locked up for laughing at our new Home Secretary, Dianne Abbott - which really would engender US style mass incarceration.
Wouldn't that be a 'hate crime' aggravated by racism - which is punishable by jail?
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
Conservative bit of Sedgefield (outer Darlington) plus2 Middlesbrough seats, plus Darlington.
Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.
According to my plots, the Tory share is flatlining at 47% (of course that depends where you measure the average). I'm looking forward to the ELBOW this week!
Duh .... I really han't realised until tonight that Tissue Price and Aaron Bell were one and the same person. Funnily enough, I was only thinking a few days ago what might have happened to a few of the old timers from PB.com, especially those with a good betting brain like Aaron from his days with Bet365 - I wonder if he's still there?
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.
Conservative bit of Sedgefield (outer Darlington) plus2 Middlesbrough seats, plus Darlington.
Yes Middlesbrough IS solid Labour - but Middlesbrough South (a larger constituency) is leaning Tory, as is Darlington and Sedgefield.
Oh, LDs. Either the pollsters just cannot find you, or I feel so bad for you. The ones in my area try so hard too (oddly not during the EU ref though).
That is very interesting. What surprised me even more than the petulance of Remainers post-referendum, was their sloth and apathy before it, so it is useful to know that even habitual campaigners couldn't be arsed to campaign.
Congratulations to @Tissue_Price. The seat looks tough on paper but with a massive UKIP vote to squeeze and Labour suffering on a national scale it could be done.
Yeah.
National swing is one thing. Identifying - and then actually getting the vote out - is another.
Comments
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=0
I'll enjoy seeing Corbyn trying to argue away Tees Valley. Tees Valley!
I think they'll be lucky to keep it that low.
http://www.france24.com/en/livefeed/
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?
Do you fancy a friendly £20 at evens?
<40 you win, 40 or more I do?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/03/video_desiree_fairooz_s_criminal_laugh_at_jeff_sessions_hearing.html
"It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain."
How prescient .....
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
Minor Asia.
.. checks betting slips .. on at 8/1...
Go for it, lad!
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf
Funnily enough, I was only thinking a few days ago what might have happened to a few of the old timers from PB.com, especially those with a good betting brain like Aaron from his days with Bet365 - I wonder if he's still there?
I mean the mayorals have no chance of electing Corbyn at least... Corbyn is on for the mother of all shellackings in the GE I reckon.
National swing is one thing. Identifying - and then actually getting the vote out - is another.
To win, he'll need to pound the estates.
Hats off to him if he can do it.
Surely a lost deposit?