politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: Firing the starting gun, Brexi
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That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.Paristonda said:
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).bobajobPB said:
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.kle4 said:Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
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Great news - many congratulationsanother_richard said:
Congrats to TP.TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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What's fascinating about that comparison is that Thatcher couldn't count on the support of the mainstream of her party in response to her hardening euroscepticism. The Tory party now is a very different beast.Ishmael_Z said:
You direct fire, or you unleash dogs of war.kle4 said:
Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.Scott_P said:@MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: May unleashes fire at Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859875344731570177/photo/1
Relatedly, today is the first day it feels as if Theresa is Maggie T redux all over again, for reasons beyond the fact that she's a female PM.0 -
Corbynism not popular in the West Midlands, I wonder why?Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Post of the evening.Scrapheap_as_was said:
Conservative 20%Ave_it said:When's the next poll?
Labour 300,000%
LDems -0%
Others 30p
Abbott Research, conducted 2/5/17 - 80m were interviewed.
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Was that the one that David Steel introduced as a private members bill?Restharrow said:
Are you worried that a future LibDem government might repeal the 1967 Sexual Offences Act?Charles said:@AlastairMeeks fpt
Re Farron
Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face
He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.
That, for me, makes him toxic0 -
Labour would lose around 90 seats using this poll:justin124 said:Kantar poll
Conservatives 48% (+2)
Labour 24% (-)
LibDems 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=00 -
Well she does have a pretty husky smoker's voice so perhaps it's to try and mimic that!bobajobPB said:
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.Paristonda said:
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).bobajobPB said:
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.kle4 said:Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
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The Birmingham one comes as no surprise.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
I'll enjoy seeing Corbyn trying to argue away Tees Valley. Tees Valley!0 -
Would you therefore refuse ever to vote for a devout Muslim?Charles said:@AlastairMeeks fpt
Re Farron
Elections need to be about character not policies - you can never predicte the decisions they will face
He clearly believes gay sex (although differentiating between that and homosexuality sexuality is classic Anglican sophistry @foxinsox ) is wrong.
That, for me, makes him toxic0 -
Maybe intentional, thenbobajobPB said:
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.Paristonda said:
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).bobajobPB said:
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.kle4 said:Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
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Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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The actual article is very vague but it does mention 75 Labour councillor losses in England.foxinsoxuk said:
West Mids and Teeside. Not really a shock.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
I think they'll be lucky to keep it that low.
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Yes, it's not exactly a classic Frenchwoman's soft lilt, but still.Paristonda said:
Well she does have a pretty husky smoker's voice so perhaps it's to try and mimic that!bobajobPB said:
That's all true and even within those parameters, it's a lousy effort by France24. You'd have thought they could have least managed to find a woman to voiceover Le Pen! Having a man doing it is comic.Paristonda said:
The thing is debates are rarely informative on policy terms, so it's all about the zingers, the gaffes, the tone, and the body language - none of which works well with instant interpretation (where they don't have the time to try and mimic these characteristics like if it was dubbed after the time).bobajobPB said:
It's not that good. But I'm watching the dubbed English version. I suspect it loses a great deal in the translation. My French isn't good enough to watch it without the voiceover.kle4 said:Sounds like a fiery debate, and quite entertaining, in its way. I suppose Le Pen has no choice but to swing hard, given how far behind she is.
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Well done lad.TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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D'accord!Big_G_NorthWales said:
Great news - many congratulationsanother_richard said:
Congrats to TP.TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Seat majority of 186AndyJS said:
Labour would lose around 90 seats using this poll:justin124 said:Kantar poll
Conservatives 48% (+2)
Labour 24% (-)
LibDems 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=00 -
Do you think Birmingham is being affected by the multiculturalism practised in some Schools?bobajobPB said:
The Birmingham one comes as no surprise.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
I'll enjoy seeing Corbyn trying to argue away Tees Valley. Tees Valley!0 -
Good podcast, thanks.0
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That is what I thought as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Presumably a welcome side effect of Tissue Price's deserved good news is that odds at Bet 365 will be a little less rigorously worked out than usual.0
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Fox
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?0 -
Macron learning from the deplorables mistake "I respect all your voters, they deserve better".0
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Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Outstanding, Many congratulations to Messrs Bell and Price, and good luck!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Good line.Paristonda said:Macron learning from the deplorables mistake "I respect all your voters, they deserve better".
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So Le Pen <40%?foxinsoxuk said:
Macron by more than 20%.chestnut said:
How much do you think he's going to win by?bobajobPB said:
So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?MonikerDiCanio said:
Do you fancy a friendly £20 at evens?
<40 you win, 40 or more I do?0 -
Does @Sunil_Prasannan want the fragrant Ms Flint to win, or @Tissue_Price ?!?0
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To be fair Labour did do better than was expected in the 2016 local elections.kle4 said:
Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Monkeyhanger territory!bobajobPB said:Fox
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?0 -
America, home of free speech... will imprison you for laughing at Jeff Sessions:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/03/video_desiree_fairooz_s_criminal_laugh_at_jeff_sessions_hearing.html0 -
I'm going to pester Bet365 for odds on Don ValleyAlastairMeeks said:Presumably a welcome side effect of Tissue Price's deserved good news is that odds at Bet 365 will be a little less rigorously worked out than usual.
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And as a consequence of the difference, she has become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.numbertwelve said:
What's fascinating about that comparison is that Thatcher couldn't count on the support of the mainstream of her party in response to her hardening euroscepticism. The Tory party now is a very different beast.Ishmael_Z said:
You direct fire, or you unleash dogs of war.kle4 said:
Most over the top description so far, but I wouldn't take a bet that the Mirror and Mail cannot beat it.Scott_P said:@MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY TELEGRAPH: May unleashes fire at Europe #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859875344731570177/photo/1
Relatedly, today is the first day it feels as if Theresa is Maggie T redux all over again, for reasons beyond the fact that she's a female PM.0 -
@MsHelicat: THE TIMES top story #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859880673015984128/photo/10
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Many congratulations to Aaron Bell on being selected to contest Don Valley. Good luck!0
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That was my point - the expectations management was great, as Lab were talking of doing even worse than pundit predictions, and they did better than both, as I recall.another_richard said:
To be fair Labour did do better than was expected in the 2016 local elections.kle4 said:
Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Brexit seems to have been the inflexion point. Before then Labour stood up pretty well in real life electoral tests. Since then they have underperformed on every occasion.another_richard said:
To be fair Labour did do better than was expected in the 2016 local elections.kle4 said:
Labour were fantastic at it in the last locals, and could be again. Although the GE won't be able to be argued away...TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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Which name will appear on the ballot paper? I think he'd have a really good chance as TP.Carolus_Rex said:
Outstanding, Many congratulations to Messrs Bell and Price, and good luck!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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And Berkley won't let you speak at all - mind you it cost them allegedly $500,000 policing costs just for the speaker NOT to attend.Nigelb said:America, home of free speech... will imprison you for laughing at Jeff Sessions:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/03/video_desiree_fairooz_s_criminal_laugh_at_jeff_sessions_hearing.html0 -
@MsHelicat: Thursday's GUARDIAN: May declares war on Brussels #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859881152135483392/photo/10
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Huzzah - Well done Tissue_Price.TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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If he's seen eating a meat pie at the count you will know there is something funny going on.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to pester Bet365 for odds on Don ValleyAlastairMeeks said:Presumably a welcome side effect of Tissue Price's deserved good news is that odds at Bet 365 will be a little less rigorously worked out than usual.
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I'm on a Tory gain here at 25's but it needs an unlikely 26-24-24-24:split!justin124 said:
I don't think the calculation works for the Greens because their national rating is so small.MTimT said:
Baxtering this, I see that Thangam Debbonaire loses Bristol W to the Greens. I don't know anything about her and her policies, but it would be a shame to lose a name like that from Westminsterjustin124 said:Kantar poll
Conservatives 48% (+2)
Labour 24% (-)
LibDems 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)0 -
Well don TP, good chance of another PBer entering the Commons after Mr Palmer's departureTheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Indeed. Wasn't it the Sun which "exclusively revealed" Labour would finish fourth in Copeland? Wouldn't be surprised if they lost both though.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sounds like expectation management to me.Scott_P said:@SunPolitics: Tories tipped for TWO Metro Mayor victories as working class deserts Labour in local elections https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/3474930/tories-tipped-for-two-metro-mayor-victories/
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@MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY MIRROR: May plotting snap vote on bombing Syria #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859881974688829440/photo/10
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He's got a real advantage, he'll be towards the top of the ballot paper, ahead of Caroline Flint.0
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THE story of the 2017 election - were you up for Don Valley?0
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Macron just called Le Pen a parasite in his concluding remarks!0
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Fantastic news!! Congratulations!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Good luck, get out there and win, I will watch this result with particular interest.TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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"It is rather like sending your opening batsmen to the crease only for them to find, the moment the first balls are bowled, that their bats have been broken before the game by the team captain."
How prescient .....0 -
I suspect I'll be editing PB on GE night from the Don Valley count, which I think will be at Doncaster Racecourse.JohnO said:THE story of the 2017 election - were you up for Don Valley?
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No thanks. There are better odds on betfair for the sub 40% band. That is where my money is. Indeed the 2.74 there is value, though I do have a bit on the sub 35% band too.chestnut said:
So Le Pen <40%?foxinsoxuk said:
Macron by more than 20%.chestnut said:
How much do you think he's going to win by?bobajobPB said:
So are you predicting a Le Pen win on Sunday?MonikerDiCanio said:
Do you fancy a friendly £20 at evens?
<40 you win, 40 or more I do?</p>0 -
Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.bobajobPB said:Fox
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?0 -
Surely nonsense! the Commons cannot meet until June.Scott_P said:@MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY MIRROR: May plotting snap vote on bombing Syria #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859881974688829440/photo/1
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Summing up in French debate now0
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@MsHelicat: Thursday's SUN: Nuclear Juncker #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859882684138520576/photo/10
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Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'0
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The UK equivalent might be getting locked up for laughing at our new Home Secretary, Dianne Abbott - which really would engender US style mass incarceration.Arthur_Penny said:
And Berkley won't let you speak at all - mind you it cost them allegedly $500,000 policing costs just for the speaker NOT to attend.Nigelb said:America, home of free speech... will imprison you for laughing at Jeff Sessions:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/03/video_desiree_fairooz_s_criminal_laugh_at_jeff_sessions_hearing.html0 -
Oh, LDs. Either the pollsters just cannot find you, or I feel so bad for you. The ones in my area try so hard too (oddly not during the EU ref though).TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Congratulations to @Tissue_Price. The seat looks tough on paper but with a massive UKIP vote to squeeze and Labour suffering on a national scale it could be done.0
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As I suspected, last weeks YOUGOV starting to look very much like an outlier....TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Macron; Read my book.0
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@MsHelicat: Thursday's DAILY MAIL: Hands off our election #tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers https://twitter.com/MsHelicat/status/859883277238362112/photo/10
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Tories back from holiday!TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
And this before Theresa May put down JunckerRobD said:
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Genghis Khan.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
Minor Asia.0 -
Macron promises real reforms 'a generous open country, the light of the world'0
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Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.RobD said:
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Wouldn't that be a 'hate crime' aggravated by racism - which is punishable by jail?Nigelb said:
The UK equivalent might be getting locked up for laughing at our new Home Secretary, Dianne Abbott - which really would engender US style mass incarceration.Arthur_Penny said:
And Berkley won't let you speak at all - mind you it cost them allegedly $500,000 policing costs just for the speaker NOT to attend.Nigelb said:America, home of free speech... will imprison you for laughing at Jeff Sessions:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2017/05/03/video_desiree_fairooz_s_criminal_laugh_at_jeff_sessions_hearing.html0 -
I don't get out of bed for less than 20.kle4 said:
Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.RobD said:
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Conservative bit of Sedgefield (outer Darlington) plus2 Middlesbrough seats, plus Darlington.Arthur_Penny said:
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.bobajobPB said:Fox
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?0 -
Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....NickPalmer said:
Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Brutal, unforgettable and true. Macron's been blown away tonight.HYUFD said:Le Pen 'Macron wants to close factories, hospitals, everything but the borders'
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Wow, Aaron got the Don Valley gig! Brilliant!
.. checks betting slips .. on at 8/1...
Go for it, lad!0 -
Congratulations Aaron aka @Tissue_Price0
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According to my plots, the Tory share is flatlining at 47% (of course that depends where you measure the average). I'm looking forward to the ELBOW this week!kle4 said:
Still below 20 point lead, no room for excitement there.RobD said:
Oh baby.TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
https://goo.gl/7cTbAf0 -
Two days before the election.... speed readers break for Macron.brokenwheel said:Macron; Read my book.
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Surely the Conservative candidate's slogan has to be The Price Is Right.JackW said:
Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....NickPalmer said:
Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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But doesn't that suggest it's Aaron that's being buried?JackW said:
Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....NickPalmer said:
Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Duh .... I really han't realised until tonight that Tissue Price and Aaron Bell were one and the same person.
Funnily enough, I was only thinking a few days ago what might have happened to a few of the old timers from PB.com, especially those with a good betting brain like Aaron from his days with Bet365 - I wonder if he's still there?0 -
Especially if the LibDem candidate is missing ....Carolus_Rex said:
If he's seen eating a meat pie at the count you will know there is something funny going on.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm going to pester Bet365 for odds on Don ValleyAlastairMeeks said:Presumably a welcome side effect of Tissue Price's deserved good news is that odds at Bet 365 will be a little less rigorously worked out than usual.
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I so hope our bets win.Richard_Nabavi said:Wow, Aaron got the Don Valley gig! Brilliant!
.. checks betting slips .. on at 8/1...
Go for it, lad!0 -
A quote from John Donne Valley (well almost)!JackW said:
Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....NickPalmer said:
Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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I am not a lip reader, but those pictures of TMay in the Grauniad and Times do seem to be taken just as she is mouthing 'fuh'0
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Yes Middlesbrough IS solid Labour - but Middlesbrough South (a larger constituency) is leaning Tory, as is Darlington and Sedgefield.dixiedean said:
Conservative bit of Sedgefield (outer Darlington) plus2 Middlesbrough seats, plus Darlington.Arthur_Penny said:
Assumin it is a bit of Sedgefield, Hartlepool, Redcar, Stockton North and Stockton South Baxter forecasts four of those to go Blue - and Redcar isn't solid Labour after Gordon Brown refused to save the steelwworks - remember they lost it to the Lib Dems.bobajobPB said:Fox
I'd have thought Teesside was hardcore Labour country?0 -
So long as it's not 'A Tissue of Lies'AlastairMeeks said:
Surely the Conservative candidate's slogan has to be The Price Is Right.JackW said:
Ask Not For Whom The Bell Tolls Caroline Flint, It Tolls But For Thee ....NickPalmer said:
Nice one!TheScreamingEagles said:I can confirm Tissue Price aka Aaron Bell has won the selection and is now the Tory candidate for Don Valley
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Judging by the front pages, I would say that is three sets and the match to May. At home at least...0
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I seem to remember he voted leave which leaves him in good shape to pick up a lot of the UKIP vote. Could be a tight race.TheScreamingEagles said:
I so hope our bets win.Richard_Nabavi said:Wow, Aaron got the Don Valley gig! Brilliant!
.. checks betting slips .. on at 8/1...
Go for it, lad!0 -
Labour realise that General Elections generally go better for the Government ?
I mean the mayorals have no chance of electing Corbyn at least... Corbyn is on for the mother of all shellackings in the GE I reckon.0 -
That is very interesting. What surprised me even more than the petulance of Remainers post-referendum, was their sloth and apathy before it, so it is useful to know that even habitual campaigners couldn't be arsed to campaign.kle4 said:
Oh, LDs. Either the pollsters just cannot find you, or I feel so bad for you. The ones in my area try so hard too (oddly not during the EU ref though).TheScreamingEagles said:Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)0 -
Yeah.MaxPB said:Congratulations to @Tissue_Price. The seat looks tough on paper but with a massive UKIP vote to squeeze and Labour suffering on a national scale it could be done.
National swing is one thing. Identifying - and then actually getting the vote out - is another.
To win, he'll need to pound the estates.
Hats off to him if he can do it.0 -
Ooh, turns out I did get on Don Valley at 8/1 too. Sadly not for much, but now it's double extra wishes for TP.0
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Simon Danczuk wants to stand as an independent in Rochdale.
Surely a lost deposit?0
